nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2019‒01‒07
38 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. The Imbalances of the Bretton Woods System 1965 to 1973: U.S. Inflation, The Elephant in the Room By Michael D. Bordo
  2. Asediando el gérmen del desarrollo. Condicionantes históricos del desarrollo: Una revisión bibliográfica para el caso antioqueño By Andrés Daniel Godoy Ortiz; Pablo Casanova Castañeda
  3. Systemic Risk and the Great Depression By Sanjiv R. Das; Kris James Mitchener; Angela Vossmeyer
  4. Without coal in the age of steam and dams in the age of electricity: An explanation for the failure of Portugal to industrialize before the Second World War By Teives Henriques, Sofia; Sharp, Paul
  5. Expenditures and food consumption of a patrician family in nineteenth-century Trentino: the Bossi Fedrigotti By Marcella Lorenzini
  6. Can Kings Create Towns that Thrive? The long-run implications of new town foundations By Cermeño, Alexandra; Enflo, Kerstin
  7. On commercial gluts, or when the Saint-Simonians adopted Jean-Baptiste Say’s view By Adrien Lutz
  8. The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016 By Ayres, Joao Luiz; Garcia, Marcio; Guillen, Diogo; Kehoe, Patrick J.
  9. A Simple Combinatorial Model of World Economic History By Roger Koppl; Abigail Devereaux; Jim Herriot; Stuart Kauffman
  10. Religious competition and reallocation: the political economy of secularization in the Protestant Reformation By Cantoni, Davide; Dittmar, Jeremiah; Yuchtman, Noam
  11. Aerial Bombardment and Educational Attainment By Le, Kien; Nguyen, My
  12. Poverty and Inequality in Francophone Africa, 1960s-2010s By Sédi-Anne Boukaka; Giulia Mancini; Giovanni Vecchi
  13. Peer Pressure: The Puzzle of Tax Compliance in the Early Nineteenth-Century Russia By Elena Korchmina
  14. Beyond the personal-anonymous divide By Fabien Eloire; Claire Lemercier; Veronica Aoki Santarosa
  15. Mientras llegaba el futuro By Piedrahíta, Esteban; Pérez, Carlos Andrés; Londoño, Harold
  16. Understanding Norwegian Commons By Berge, Erling
  17. The Saint-Simonians and the birth of social justice in France By Adrien Lutz
  18. The slow road from serfdom : Labor coercion and long-run development in the former Russian Empire By Buggle, Johannes C.; Nafziger, Steven
  19. Antoine Augustin Cournot: The Pioneer of Modern Economic Ideas By Hossain, Md. Mobarak; Chowdhury, Md Niaz Murshed
  20. The Race Between Demand and Supply: Tinbergen's Pioneering Studies of Earnings Inequality By James J. Heckman
  21. Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru 1960-2010: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization By Martinelli, César; Vega, Marco
  22. Establishment History Panel 1975-2017 By Schmucker, Alexandra; Ganzer, Andreas; Stegmaier, Jens; Wolter, Stefanie
  23. Financial development and industrial pollution By De Haas, Ralph; Popov, Alexander
  24. Planificación: pasado, presente y prospectiva. A 50 años de la creación de la Oficina de Planeamiento y Presupuesto By María Jossé Rey
  25. Studiu retrospectiv privind organizarea administrativ-teritorială a României, în ultimii 100 de ani By Antonescu, Daniela
  26. Economic consequences of state failure; Legal capacity, regulatory activity, and market integration in Poland, 1505-1772 By Mikołaj Malinowski
  27. High-Value Work and the Rise of Women: The Cotton Revolution and Gender Equality in China* By Xue, Melanie Meng
  28. A Policy of Credit Disruption: The Punjab Land Alienation Act of 1900 By Latika Chaudhary; Anand V. Swamy
  29. Testing for normality in truncated anthropometric samples By Antonio Fidalgo
  30. The capacity to confuse: rescuing the Saint-Simonian notion of ability from modern capability theories of social justice By Antoinette Baujard; Adrien Lutz
  31. De la Casa Carabassa al Museo Evita: notas sobre la historia de un hogar de tránsito By Carolina Barry
  32. Colonial Banks, Credit, and Circulation: the example of martinique 1848-1871 By Agnès Festré; Alain Raybaut
  33. Punjab’s Agricultural Innovation Challenge By Singh, Nirvikar
  34. Causes and effects of historical transmission grid collapses and implications for the German power system By Behnert, Marika; Bruckner, Thomas
  35. Michael Polanyi's economics: a strange rapprochement By Agnès Festré
  36. Feeding the people: grain yields and agricultural expansion in Qing China By Brunt, Liam; Fidalgo, Antonio
  37. Participación de la fuerza de trabajo de mujeres en los sectores económicos de América Latina, durante el siglo XX1 By Silvana Maubrigades
  38. The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: Monetary Policy By Hartmann, Philipp; Smets, Frank

  1. By: Michael D. Bordo
    Abstract: This paper argues that the key deep underlying fundamental for the growing international imbalances leading to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system between 1971 and 1973 was rising U.S. inflation since 1965. It was driven in turn by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies—the elephant in the room. What was kept in the background at the Camp David meeting on August 15 1971 when President Richard Nixon closed the U.S. gold window, as well as imposing a ten per cent surcharge on all imports and a ninety day wage price freeze—was that U.S. inflation, driven by macro policies, was the main problem facing the Bretton Woods System, and that for political and doctrinal reasons was not directly addressed. Instead President Nixon blamed the rest of the world rather than focusing on issues with U.S. monetary and fiscal policies. In addition, at the urging of Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur F. Burns, Nixon adopted wage and price controls to mask the inflation, hence punting the problem into the future. This paper revisits the story of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the origins of the Great Inflation. Based on historical narratives and conversations with the Honorable George P. Shultz, a crucial player in the events of the period 1969 to 1973, I argue the case that the pursuit of tighter monetary and fiscal policies could have avoided much of the turmoil in the waning years of Bretton Woods. Moreover, I point out some of the similarities between the imbalances of the 1960s and 1970s—especially fiscal and the use of tariff protection as a strategic tool, as well as some differences—relatively stable monetary policy and floating exchange rates.
    JEL: E31 E42 E62 F33 F41 N10
    Date: 2018–12
  2. By: Andrés Daniel Godoy Ortiz; Pablo Casanova Castañeda
    Abstract: En la literatura internacional, se reconoce significativamente la importancia de los condicionamientos históricos en el desarrollo capitalista y en las divergencias que se presentan entre regiones o países, una vez este se ha establecido. En este artículo, se rastrean, desde la colonia, aquellos factores históricos que han condicionado el desarrollo de la economía antioqueña, a través de una revisión bibliográfica de historia económica de la región y contrastando con algunas hipótesis de desarrollo económico que reconocen el rol de los condicionamientos históricos. La principal conclusión es que, en línea con las hipótesis de Engerman y Sokoloff y de Bértola y Ocampo, las dotaciones geográficas iniciales y el tipo de composición demográfica, específicamente, la existencia de yacimientos de oro y de una población homogénea y relativamente libre, determinaron el posterior desarrollo de esta región. *** In the international literature, it is well recognized the significant importance of historical conditioning factors in capitalist development and divergences that exist between regions or countries, once established. In this article, we trace from the times of the colony those historical factors that have conditioned the development of the Antioquia economy, through a bibliographic review of the region's economic history and contrasting with some economic development hypotheses that recognize the role of the historical conditioning. The main conclusion is that, in line with the hypotheses of Engerman and Sokoloff and of Bértola and Ocampo, the initial geographic endowments and the type of demographic composition determined the later development of this region, specifically, the existence of gold deposits and a homogeneous and relatively free population.
    Keywords: Antioquia, desarrollo económico, condicionamientos históricos
    JEL: N1 N5 O1
    Date: 2018–12–28
  3. By: Sanjiv R. Das; Kris James Mitchener; Angela Vossmeyer
    Abstract: We employ a unique hand-collected dataset and a novel methodology to examine systemic risk before and after the largest U.S. banking crisis of the 20th century. Our systemic risk measure captures both the credit risk of an individual bank as well as a bank’s position in the network. We construct linkages between all U.S. commercial banks in 1929 and 1934 so that we can measure how predisposed the entire network was to risk, where risk was concentrated, and how the failure of more than 9,000 banks during the Great Depression altered risk in the network. We find that the pyramid structure of the commercial banking system (i.e., the network’s topology) created more inherent fragility, but systemic risk was nevertheless fairly dispersed throughout banks in 1929, with the top 20 banks contributing roughly 18% of total systemic risk. The massive banking crisis that occurred between 1930–33 raised systemic risk per bank by 33% and increased the riskiness of the very largest banks in the system. We use Bayesian methods to demonstrate that when network measures, such as eigenvector centrality and a bank’s systemic risk contribution, are combined with balance sheet data capturing ex ante bank default risk, they strongly predict bank survivorship in 1934.
    JEL: E42 E44 G01 G18 G21 L1 N12 N22
    Date: 2018–12
  4. By: Teives Henriques, Sofia (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Sharp, Paul (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: We provide a natural resource explanation for the divergence of the Portuguese economy relative to other European countries before the Second World War, based on a considerable body of contemporary sources. First, we demonstrate that a lack of domestic resources meant that Portugal experienced limited and unbalanced growth during the age of steam. Imports of coal were prohibitively expensive for inland areas, which failed to industrialize. Coastal areas developed through steam, but were constrained by limited demand from the interior. Second, we show that after the First World War, when other coal-poor countries turned to hydro-power, Portugal relied on coal-based thermal-power, creating a vicious circle of high energy prices and labor-intensive industrialization. We argue that this was the result of (i) water resources which were relatively expensive to exploit; and (ii) path-dependency, whereby the failure to develop earlier meant that there was a lack of capital and demand from industry.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution; natural resources; coal; electrification; energy prices
    JEL: N13 N14 N53 N54 O13 Q43
    Date: 2018–12–21
  5. By: Marcella Lorenzini
    Abstract: This paper aims to analyse the expenditure and consumption of a noble family from Trentino, the Bossi Fedrigotti, in the nineteenth century. The origin and evolution of the family assets are traced from the fifteenth to the nineteenth century as they shifted from transport to trade, from trade to finance, and finally from finance to agriculture. The research is based on the household budgets and investigates the type, composition and variations in expenditures during two benchmark decades, 1835-44 and 1855-64. The relatively small share of expenses for food as compared to leisure, cultural activities, charity and conspicuous consumption reflects the family’s quest for social status and reputation, leading to the obtainment of a noble title in the eighteenth century. The Bossi Fedrigotti represented a pillar in the economic system of Rovereto, which they actively supported through a variety of economic and non-economic actions, helping the city to prosper and advance.
    Keywords: 19th century, economic history, household budgets, Italy, living standards, Tyrol, wellbeing
    JEL: D14 D64 E21 M41 N00 R20
    Date: 2018–12–22
  6. By: Cermeño, Alexandra; Enflo, Kerstin
    Abstract: Town foundations have been at the core of urban planning since the onset of civilization. This paper describes the long-run impact of an urbanization place-based policy that was considered a failure by contemporary policymakers. We test the impact of founded towns using a series of town foundations that took place between 1570 and 1810, when the Swedish Crown conferred monopoly market rights to trade upon 31 previously rural ordinary parishes. We show that towns were founded in locations with little natural potential, evident in their limited impact on agricultural surplus in the surrounding hinterlands. However, the new foundations drove extensive growth in terms of population and created positive spillover effects up to 40-50 km around the settlements. Still, the founded towns remained extraordinarily small by the end of the policy period. It was not until the Industrial Revolution that these towns began to thrive. We suggest that trading rights and sunk investments initially served to coordinate expectations about future growth. Once the towns started to grow, agglomeration effects generated persistence in the long term.
    Keywords: agricultural surplus; Economic Geography; economic history; path dependency; Urbanization
    JEL: N74 N93 O18 R12 R5
    Date: 2018–12
  7. By: Adrien Lutz (Univ Lyon, UJM Saint-Etienne, GATE UMR 5824, F-42023 Saint- Etienne, France)
    Abstract: A standard reading in the history of economic thought sets the classical stream of economists drawing upon the influence of Adam Smith (Jean-Baptiste Say, David Ricardo, etc.) in opposition to a “black box” of social thinkers (Louis Blanc, Fourierism, Saint-Simonianism, Sismondi, Robert Owen). This article, however, argues that, in the first quarter of the 19th century, the Saint-Simonians and the liberal economist Jean-Baptiste Say can be seen to adopt convergent views during the famous controversy about commercial gluts. First, we show that the Saint-Simonians and Say both see undersupply and lack of industry as causes of gluts. Next, we assert that their intellectual affinities are also visible in their belief that increasing production remains an appropriate solution for gluts. Finally, this convergence is explained by their common belief in industrialism: Saint-Simonianism is embedded in a French industrialist tradition for which Say can be taken as representative. We argue that their common belief in industry explains their convergence.
    Keywords: Saint-Simonianism, Jean-Baptiste Say, Adam Smith, Laissez-faire, Commercial gluts
    JEL: B10 E5 N00
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Ayres, Joao Luiz (Inter-American Development Bank); Garcia, Marcio (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro,); Guillen, Diogo (Itau-Unibanco Asset Management); Kehoe, Patrick J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of payments problems and economic stagnation that followed the external debt crisis in the early 1980s. We show that the high-inflation period (1960-1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal deficits, passive monetary policy, and constraints on debt financing. The transition to the low-inflation period (1995-2016) was characterized by improvements in all of these features, but it did not lead to significant improvements in economic growth. In addition, we document a strong positive correlation between inflation rates and seigniorage revenues, although inflation rates are relatively high for modest levels of seigniorage revenues. Finally, we discuss the role of the weak institutional framework surrounding the fiscal and monetary authorities and the role of monetary passiveness and inflation indexation in accounting for the unique features of inflation dynamics in Brazil.
    Keywords: Brazils hyperinflation; Brazils stagnation; Stabilization plans; Fiscal deficit; Debt accounting
    JEL: E42 E63 H62 H63
    Date: 2018–12–20
  9. By: Roger Koppl; Abigail Devereaux; Jim Herriot; Stuart Kauffman
    Abstract: We use a simple combinatorial model of technological change to explain the Industrial Revolution. The Industrial Revolution was a sudden large improvement in technology, which resulted in significant increases in human wealth and life spans. In our model, technological change is combining or modifying earlier goods to produce new goods. The underlying process, which has been the same for at least 200,000 years, was sure to produce a very long period of relatively slow change followed with probability one by a combinatorial explosion and sudden takeoff. Thus, in our model, after many millennia of relative quiescence in wealth and technology, a combinatorial explosion created the sudden takeoff of the Industrial Revolution.
    Date: 2018–11
  10. By: Cantoni, Davide; Dittmar, Jeremiah; Yuchtman, Noam
    Abstract: Using novel microdata, we document an important, unintended consequence of the Protestant Reformation: a reallocation of resources from religious to secular purposes. To understand this process, we propose a conceptual framework in which the introduction of religious competition shifts political markets where religious authorities provide legitimacy to rulers in exchange for control over resources. Consistent with our framework, religious competition changed the balance of power between secular and religious elites: secular authorities acquired enormous amounts of wealth from monasteries closed during the Reformation, particularly in Protestant regions. This transfer of resources had significant consequences. First, it shifted the allocation of upper-tail human capital. Graduates of Protestant universities increasingly took secular, especially administrative, occupations. Protestant university students increasingly studied secular subjects, especially degrees that prepared students for public sector jobs, rather than church sector-specific theology. Second, it affected the sectoral composition of fixed investment. Particularly in Protestant regions, new construction shifted from religious toward secular purposes, especially the building of palaces and administrative buildings, which reflected the increased wealth and power of secular lords. Reallocation was not driven by pre-existing economic or cultural differences. Our findings indicate that the Reformation played an important causal role in the secularization of the West.
    Keywords: Protestant Reformation; secularization; sectoral allocation; human capital
    JEL: E0 J24 N13 N33
    Date: 2018–06–06
  11. By: Le, Kien; Nguyen, My
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence that the Allied bombing of Vietnam, the longest and heaviest aerial bombardment in the history, imposed detrimental effects on educational attainment of school-age individuals. By exploiting the plausibly exogenous district-by-cohort variation in bomb destruction under a difference-in-differences framework, we find that an increase in bomb intensity leads to significantly fewer educational years completed by school-age children exposed to the bombardment. A series of robustness checks, falsification tests, and the instrumental-variable strategy further support our results. The findings underline the importance of policies targeting children after wartime.
    Keywords: Vietnam War, large-scale destruction, aerial bombardment, human capital
    JEL: I20 I21 J24
    Date: 2018–12–21
  12. By: Sédi-Anne Boukaka; Giulia Mancini; Giovanni Vecchi
    Abstract: The paper provides first generation estimates of poverty and inequality rates for three countries in francophone Africa – Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire and Gabon – in the aftermath of independence. Sources – a large collection of historical household budgets – are new, as is the method that allows to connect historical sources to modern household budget surveys, and to deliver nationally representative estimates. The second part of the paper identifies the trend of poverty and inequality in Côte d’Ivoire for the years 1965-2015; we find that mean income growth failed to reduce poverty during the fifteen years of economic boom post-independence (1965-1979) because of increasing inequality. Conversely, in the following period (1979-2015) poverty changes are mostly guided by the evolution of growth.
    Keywords: Cameroon, Cote-d'Ivoire, Gabon, grouped data, household budgets, inequality, living standards, poverty, wellbeing
    JEL: C13 I32 N37 O12
    Date: 2018–12–27
  13. By: Elena Korchmina (New York University Abu Dhabi)
    Abstract: How can developing countries successfully implement income taxes, which are generally desirable but costly to collect? This paper analyses the income tax compliance of elites in a developing country with a low administrative capacity, drawing attention to the role of either voluntary or quasi-voluntary components of tax acquiescence. In 1812, the Russian government introduced the progressive income tax, with the highest tax rate of 10 per cent. After Britain, the Russian Empire became the second country to adopt this levy – under the threat of Napoleonic invasion. Unlike the widely known and deeply investigated British case, the history of Russian income tax suffers from a lack of detailed research. I use a self-compiled unique dataset for estimating the level of tax compliance of the Russian noble elite at the individual level. The dataset is based on the self-reported tax returns of approximately 4,000 Russian aristocrats who had real estate in the Moscow region. Using narrative sources and crosschecking with official bank documents, I reveal not only that the Russian nobility declared reliable income information but also that the share of aristocratic evaders was relatively low (from 30 to 10 per cent). I argue that this surprisingly high level of tax compliance was achieved through a unique mechanism of tax collection involving the channels of social sanctioning and group identity, boosted by the national threat of Napoleonic invasion. This case could be considered as extremely important, insofar as the state could not achieve its fiscal aims due to coercive tools in the hands of bureaucracy but had to rely on subjects’ goodwill.
    Keywords: Russia, income tax, elite, nineteenth-century.
    JEL: H2 N93 N33
    Date: 2018–12
  14. By: Fabien Eloire (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Claire Lemercier (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Veronica Aoki Santarosa (University of Michigan [Ann Arbor])
    Abstract: Powers of attorney are often interpreted as evidence of trust among the parties involved. We build a novel dataset of notarized powers of attorney, capturing a wide variety of agency relationships in four large French commercial cities in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, to test hypotheses on the relational basis of economic relationships. We find little support for the idea of a radical shift from personal to anonymous relationships during our period. Our results point to more nuanced transformations. The preference for proxies in the same occupation as the principal somewhat declined, while professional proxies emerged and principals used relational chains, especially involving notaries, to find proxies.
    Keywords: trust,proxy form,power of attorney,agency relations,procuration,mandat,confiance
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Piedrahíta, Esteban; Pérez, Carlos Andrés; Londoño, Harold
    Abstract: This book focuses on the historical analysis of the main economic and social transformations of Valle del Cauca in the last 25 years. With a wide and diverse statistical information, the results of the Valley are evaluated against those registered by the main departments of the country. An account of the productive and social performance originated by the accelerated economic growth of the first half of the nineties, the crisis of the late twentieth century, the mining-energy boom experienced by the country between 2003 and 2013 and the recent adjustment of the economy. The new productive bets are also presented and teachings and lights are thrown for the economic future of the department
    Keywords: Transformaciones económicas, Desempeño productivo y social, apuestas productivas.
    JEL: A1 D5 D51 E23 E24 E3 E32 F1 F2 F21 F23
    Date: 2017–09
  16. By: Berge, Erling (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: he paper reviews the development of the legal status of Norwegian commons from the first known legislation on commons. The development can be divided into 5 periods. The first period lasted until about 1300. In this period, the commons changed from being a local matter for the chiefs and the local thing to become a national resource where also the King had rights to resources for defence of the realm. The second period is the big population decline 1350-1550 where Norway lost 60% of its population and the King and his bureaucracy moved to Copenhagen. The commons reverted to a local issue. The third period lasted from about 1550 to 1814. The powers of ownership were now seen to reside in the Crown. It had moved from the local community to the state. The rights of common were respected and should remain as they had been from old on. Limitations on the commoner's exploitation were introduced. Rights of common were held by active farms and stinted to the needs of the farm. At the same time, the Crown started large-scale exploitation of the forest resources and selling off forestland to sawmill owners and timber merchants. In the period 1814 to 1857/ 1863 the state’s ideas about the commons were recast into 3 types of commons and one type not mentioned in the legal texts that here is called hamlet commons. In the period after 1863 the limitations and regulations of the exploitation of the commons continued. By the end of the 20th century, the rights of common were reduced to rights of forests and pasture tailored to the needs of the farm. However, the development in farming and recreation activities of the population changed the usage of the commons. The rights of fishing and hunting in state commons came close to an all men’s right. The national community expanded its use of the commons by defining much of their areas to be protected lands providing landscapes for recreational activities and production of ecosystem services.
    Keywords: Norway; commons; history; rights of common; ownership; landscape protection
    JEL: H70 P48 Q15 Q20
    Date: 2018–12–17
  17. By: Adrien Lutz (Univ Lyon, UJM Saint-Etienne, GATE UMR 5824, F-42023 Saint- Etienne, France)
    Abstract: This paper concerns the birth of the idea of social justice, which in France dates to the 19th century. It argues that the idea of social justice was able to emerge in France due to particular conditions, which were met for the first time by the Saint-Simonians. We first shed light on the transition in France from a commercial system to one marked by increasing industrialization, which raised new questions regarding economic justice and the composition of ownership. The Saint-Simonians were among the first to criticize this new composition, and to seek a means to organize society on a fair basis. We then explain how the Saint-Simonians came to theorize this new organization: according to them, the value of things lies in work. The difference from the classical framework, which is also utilitarian, is that they posit an opposition between workers and idlers: each and every individual must be useful to society. Finally, we analyse how the Saint-Simonians identify this opposition as existing throughout history, on which basis they not only justify their innovative views on social justice, but legitimize their project as a whole.
    Keywords: Saint-Simonianism, Social justice, Ability, Industrialism
    JEL: B10 D63 N00
    Date: 2018
  18. By: Buggle, Johannes C.; Nafziger, Steven
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run economic consequences of Russian serfdom. Employing data on the intensity of labor coercion at the district level in just prior to emancipation in 1861, we document that a greater legacy of serfdom is associated with lower economic well-being today. Our estimates imply that increasing historical serfdom by 25 percentage points reduces household expenditure today by up to 17%. The analysis of different types of labor coercion reveals substantial heterogeneity in the long-run effects of serfdom. Furthermore, we document persistence of economic development measured by city populations over the period 1800 - 2002 in cross-sectional regressions and panel estimations. Exploring mechanisms, our results suggest that the effect of serfdom on urbanization in Imperial Russia was perpetuated in the Soviet period, with negative implications for structural change, the spatial distribution and productivity of firms, and human capital investment.
    JEL: N33 N54 O10 O43
    Date: 2018–12–18
  19. By: Hossain, Md. Mobarak; Chowdhury, Md Niaz Murshed
    Abstract: Augustin Cournot, an unsung pioneer of many economic ideas during his time, who has written the book, Theory of Wealth, where he developed many economic ideas including the oligopoly theory, doupoly model, the ideas of function and probability into economic analysis. This paper discusses the way he thought the economics should be analyzed as well as his life cycle.
    Keywords: Doupoly, oligopoly, game theory
    JEL: B30 B31
    Date: 2018–12–24
  20. By: James J. Heckman
    Abstract: Understanding inequality and devising policies to alleviate it was a central focus of Jan Tinbergen's lifetime research. He was far ahead of his time in many aspects of his work. This essay places his work in the perspective of research on inequality in his time and now, focusing on his studies on the pricing of skills and the evolution of skill prices. In his most fundamental contribution, Tinbergen developed the modern framework for hedonic models as part of his agenda for integrating demand and supply for skills to study determination of earnings and its distribution and the design of effective policy. His lifetime emphasis on social planning caused some economists to ignore his fundamental work.
    JEL: B31 D31 D33 D63 I24 J20 P21
    Date: 2018–12
  21. By: Martinelli, César (George Mason University); Vega, Marco (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)
    Abstract: We show Peru's experience of chronic inflation through the 1970s and 1980s resulted from inflationary taxation in a regime of fiscal dominance of monetary policy. Hyperinflation occurred when further debt accumulation became unavailable, and a populist administration engaged in a counterproductive policy of price controls and loose credit. We interpret the fiscal difficulties preceding the stabilization as a process of social learning to live within the realities of fiscal budget balance. The credibility of policy regime change in the 1990s may be linked ultimately to the change in public opinion giving proper incentives to politicians, after the traumatic consequences of the hyper stagflation of 1987-1990.
    Date: 2018–11
  22. By: Schmucker, Alexandra (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Ganzer, Andreas (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Stegmaier, Jens (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Wolter, Stefanie (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "The Establishment History Panel (BHP) is composed of cross sectional datasets since 1975 for West Germany and 1992 for East Germany. Every cross section contains all the establishments in Germany which are covered by the IAB Employment History (BeH) on June 30th. These are all establishments with at least one employee liable to social security on the reference date. Establishments with no employee liable to social security but with at least one marginal part-time employee are included since 1999. The cross sections can be combined to form a panel. This data report describes the Establishment History Panel (BHP) 1975-2017." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information Frequencies and labels
    Keywords: IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel, Datensatzbeschreibung, Datenaufbereitung, Datenqualität, Stichprobe, Imputationsverfahren, Datenanonymisierung, Datenzugang
    Date: 2018–12–11
  23. By: De Haas, Ralph; Popov, Alexander
    Abstract: We study the impact of financial market development on industrial pollution in a large panel of countries and industries over the period 1974-2013. We find a strong positive impact of credit markets, but a strong negative impact of stock markets, on aggregate CO2 emissions per capita. Industry-level analysis shows that stock market development (but not credit market development) is associated with cleaner production processes in technologically "dirty" industries. These industries also produce more green patents as stock markets develop. Moreover, our results suggest that stock markets (credit markets) reallocate investment towards more (less) carbon-efficient sectors. Together, these findings indicate that the evolution of a country's financial structure helps explain the non-linear relationship between economic development and environmental quality documented in the literature.
    Keywords: financial development; industrial pollution; innovation; reallocation
    JEL: G10 O4 Q5
    Date: 2018–08–04
  24. By: María Jossé Rey (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: This working paper carries out a historical review of the role that the Office for Planning and Budget (OPP) has played in planning. The aim of the study is to examine to what degree the OPP has fulfilled one of its main tasks: to advise the executive branch in issues on development policies. For this purpose, annual reports and different documents that have been prepared by the Office in matters of Development are examined. Six periods are identified with very different characteristics in terms of the degree of fulfillment of the planning task and regarding the ideas and development strategies promoted. A long term-overview shows a loss of gravitation of the OPP in planning matters during the five decades. Regarding the dominant ideas on development, it can be argued that the transition from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean´s ideas to the market-centered views of the 1990s was not radical but gradual, and began early in the founding stage of the OPP. Since 2005, its reversal has also been gradual.
    Keywords: Planning, Development policies, Planning and Budgeting Office
    JEL: H11 O21 L52
    Date: 2018–08
  25. By: Antonescu, Daniela
    Abstract: After long periods of historical turmoil, in-depth and repeated changes, accompanied by territorial and human sacrifice Romania feels in 1918 the fulfilling sentiment of the Great Union. The Romanian Kingdom achieved thus the highest of the ideals of the time: a single country, a single name, one people and such a sweet Romanian language. In the year 2018, on the occasion of celebrating the Centenary of the Great Union a series of academic initiatives will be launched to bring homage to this important historical event and which will provide for a full image of what meant these past 100 years of spiritual evolution, economic, social, institutional and cultural development of Romania nowadays. A particular significance have in this historical context the territorial-administrative reforms which left their fingerprint on the decisions of economic and social nature, and have influenced directly the national and regional evolution and development directions. If we were to regard them from an historical point of view, these reforms were neither easy nor few but, nevertheless, the language unity and historical aspirations thrived on leadig on the path to the current territorial configuration of the country. Taking into account all these aspects, the research paper intends to analyse the historical evolution of the main administrative-territorial reforms, of the institutions and specific mechanisms, as of 1918 up to date. De facto situations will be analysed along with changes of territorial nature that occurred in certain historical moments along with the conditions and factors that imposed them, and the institutional and legislative aspects that accompanied them, etc. At the same time, a series of statistical information of the time will be presented that will add harmoniously to the description of the territorial reforms, and bring to light new elements about the way in which these reforms were conducted and implemented on the ways and circumstances in which various administrative-territorial entities were created or abolished taking into account the whole historical, national and international context.
    Keywords: territorial reforms, regions, counties, institutions
    JEL: B15 B19
    Date: 2018
  26. By: Mikołaj Malinowski (Lund University / Utrecht University)
    Abstract: With use of innovative proxies and new annual data, I demonstrate that relatively high legal capacity and regulatory activity of the early-modern Polish parliament was positively associated with deeper commodity market integration. Conversely, the lack of effective law-making, caused by the right of a single delegate to discontinue the parliamentary sessions, fostered market fragmentation. This indicates that early parliamentary regimes might have required legal capacity to harmonize domestic institutions and reduce the transaction costs. The Polish case suggests a hypothesis that the pre-1800 ‘Little Divergence’ between European parliamentary regimes could potentially be partially explained by differences in their capacities.
    Keywords: Legal capacity, market integration, preindustrial economic development, Eastern Europe
    JEL: N43 N73
    Date: 2018–12
  27. By: Xue, Melanie Meng
    Abstract: This paper studies a unique historical experiment: the cotton revolution and its impact on the emergence of gender-equitable beliefs. The cotton revolution led to a prolonged phase (1300-1840 AD) of high productivity for women. I hypothesize that a substantial, long-standing increase in relative female income eroded a highly resilient cultural belief: women are less capable than men. I examine a period when economic gains from the cotton revolution faded. Using variation across 1,489 counties in cotton spinning and weaving, I find that the cotton revolution reduces sex selection. This result is supported by survey evidence on gender equitable beliefs. I instrument cotton weaving with the range of relative humidity within which cotton yarn can be smoothly woven into cloth. I document an initial impact of the cotton revolution on widow suicides. To isolate the cultural channel, I examine the effects of the cotton revolution under post-1949 state socialism, where both genders had similar economic opportunities, political and legal rights, and show that pre-1840 cotton weaving predicts a higher probability for the wife to head the household. I document the distinctive role of high-value work in the perception of women. Low-value work performed by women, such as cotton cultivation, does not correct prenatal sex selection.
    Keywords: Culture, relative female income, gender-equitable beliefs
    JEL: I1 J16 N0 N35 Z1
    Date: 2018–12–19
  28. By: Latika Chaudhary (Naval Postgraduate School); Anand V. Swamy (Williams College)
    Abstract: If land is titled and transferable, it can be used as collateral against which money can be borrowed. The resulting increase in access to credit is usually expected to foster economic growth. We study a policy in colonial India that made land less available as collateral for debt. Using a panel dataset for Punjab districts from 1890 to 1910, we find that this reduced the availability of mortgage-backed credit, but did not hurt proxies for economic development such as acreage and cattle, at least in the short run.
    Date: 2018–10
  29. By: Antonio Fidalgo (HS-Fresenius University of Applied Sciences)
    Abstract: Anthropometric historical analysis depends on the assumption that human characteristics—such as height—are normally distributed. I propose and evaluate a metric entropy, based on nonparametrically estimated densities, as a statistic for a consistent test of normality. My first test applies to full distributions for which other tests already exist and performs similarly. A modified version applies to truncated samples for which no test has been previously devised. This second test exhibits correct size and high power against standard alternatives. In contrast to the distributional prior of Floud et al. (1990), the test rejects normality in large parts of their sample; the remaining data reveal a downward trend in height, not upward as they argue.
    Keywords: test of normality, truncated samples, anthropometrics
    JEL: C12 C14 N3 N13 J11
    Date: 2018–12
  30. By: Antoinette Baujard (Univ Lyon, UJM Saint-Etienne, GATE UMR 5824, F-42023 Saint- Etienne, France); Adrien Lutz (Univ Lyon, UJM Saint-Etienne, GATE UMR 5824, F-42023 Saint- Etienne, France)
    Abstract: “To each according to his ability, to each ability according to his works” constitutes the founding slogan of the Saint-Simonian doctrine (1825–1832). A century and a half would pass before Sen and Nussbaum developed their capability approaches, designed to consider issues of human development and quality of life. Given the prominence of capability approaches in the context of modern theories of justice, and perhaps also due to the natural analogy between the words ‘capacité’, ‘ability’, and ‘capability’, there is a clear tendency in the literature to analyse the Saint-Simonians’ contributions to justice based on the assumption that there is a conceptual link between the terms capability and ability. This paper claims, however, that the elision of these terms is unjustified, and is a source more of confusion than of enlightenment. A capability is an evaluative space for justice, while an ability is a property of individuals. The former is defined essentially in the domain of consumption and individual accomplishment, while the latter is clearly seen as a contribution to the theory of efficient production. Finally, these differences reveal a contrast in the focus values: the ability approach insists on efficiency, while the capability approach focuses on agency.
    Keywords: Social justice, Capability, Ability, Sen, Saint-Simonianism
    JEL: B10 D63
    Date: 2018
  31. By: Carolina Barry
    Abstract: Este documento de trabajo busca mostrar las reconfiguraciones de un espacio físico, que viró de una mansión a un museo que se propone mostrar la vida de Eva Perón a través de uno de los hogares que fundó en 1948. Se analizan los puntos principales de su construcción política, la Fundación que llevaba su nombre y el hogar de tránsito emplazado donde hoy se sitúa el museo Evita.
    Keywords: Museo Evita, Eva Perón, Fundación Eva Perón, Familia Carabassa, Hogar de Tránsito, Políticas sociales
    Date: 2018–12
  32. By: Agnès Festré (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Alain Raybaut (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2018–11–22
  33. By: Singh, Nirvikar
    Abstract: Fifty years ago, Punjab embarked on its famous Green Revolution, leading the rest of India in that innovation, and becoming the country's breadbasket. Now its economy and society are struggling by relative, and sometimes even absolute, measures. Using the original Green Revolution as a benchmark, this paper discusses five areas of challenge and promise for a new round of agricultural innovation in Punjab. These are: complexity of the agricultural economy, complementary inputs such as infrastructure, switching costs (including risks), balancing frontier innovation and adaptation, and the relative roles of the public and private sectors.
    Keywords: Punjab, agriculture, innovation, switching costs, infrastructure
    JEL: O30 P16 P26 Q10
    Date: 2019–01–01
  34. By: Behnert, Marika; Bruckner, Thomas
    Abstract: Against the background of the energy transition accompanied by a rising penetration of renewable energy (REN) sources and a stepwise phase out of conventional power plants in order to fulfill climate protection targets, the requirements for a reliable transmission grid infrastructure increased in the last years. High coordination and communication efforts among market and system operators as well as weather extremes that occur more frequently enhance the probability of critical network states. In this paper, causes and impacts of 250 prominent transmission grid collapses in the period from 1965 to 2012 were analyzed. Based on historical events, blackout data sets were clustered inter alia by their date, affected continent as well as the duration of interrupted supply, respectively. We find an ascending number of outages along with a longer averaged duration over time. It is studied how different categories of causes evoking large-scale power blackouts are distributed regionally and temporally. Furthermore, challenges to prevent grid malfunctions, both from a technical and societal perspective, are elaborated focusing on the German power system.
    Keywords: transmission grid stability,power network blackouts,cascading outages,critical infrastructures
    Date: 2018
  35. By: Agnès Festré (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2018–11–22
  36. By: Brunt, Liam (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Fidalgo, Antonio (Fresenius University of Applied Sciences)
    Abstract: We use modern econometric methods to analyze a recently-released sample of 3 000 Chinese grain yields. We find significant variation across provinces and persistent increases in yields over time – albeit slow compared to Europe and the New World. Growth rates for rice (the primary southern crop) and dry land crops (the primary northern crops) were similar. We show that provinces were more extensively farmed when yields and population pressure were high, and that extending production put downward pressure on yields. Overall, Chinese farmers avoided the problem of agricultural involution by efficiently boosting output at the extensive margin, not the intensive margin.
    Keywords: Agricultural involution; productivity; growth
    JEL: N55 O13 O47
    Date: 2018–12–13
  37. By: Silvana Maubrigades (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: Este artículo analiza los diferentes sectores económicos en el proceso de incorporación de las mujeres al mercado laboral y cómo dicho desarrollo económico determina la participación desigual de éstas a lo largo del siglo XX en América Latina. Se propone además identificar tendencias persistentes en los espacios de participación de hombres y mujeres dentro del mercado de trabajo y analizar si existe una segregación laboral, provocada por la división sexual del trabajo, y si esto ha cambiado a lo largo del tiempo y entre los países.
    Keywords: modelos dedesarrollo,mercado de trabajo, género, curva en “U”, América Latina
    JEL: H11 J16 J21 N36
    Date: 2018–12
  38. By: Hartmann, Philipp; Smets, Frank
    Abstract: On 1 May 2018 the ECB celebrated its 20th anniversary. This paper provides a comprehensive view of the ECB’s monetary policy over these two decades. The first section provides a chronological account of the macroeconomic and monetary policy developments in the euro area since the adoption of the euro in 1999, going through four cyclical phases “conditioning” ECB monetary policy. We describe the monetary policy decisions from the ECB’s perspective and against the background of its evolving monetary policy strategy and framework. We also highlight a number of the key critical issues that were the subject of debate. The second section contains a partial assessment. We first analyze the achievement of the price stability mandate and developments in the ECB’s credibility. Next, we investigate the ECB’s interest rate decisions through the lens of a simple empirical interest rate reaction function. This is appropriate until the ECB hits the zero-lower bound in 2013. Finally, we present the ECB’s framework for thinking about non-standard monetary policy measures and review the evidence on their effectiveness. One of the main themes of the paper is how ECB monetary policy responded to the challenges posed by the European twin crises and the subsequent slow economic recovery, making use of its relatively wide range of instruments, defining new ones where necessary and developing the strategic underpinnings of its policy framework. JEL Classification: E52, E31, E32, E42, N14, G01
    Keywords: crisis, euro area economy, European Central Bank, European Economic and Monetary Union, inflation, monetary policy, non-standard measures, zero-lower bound
    Date: 2018–12

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