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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2018‒12‒03
34 papers chosen by |
| By: | Goodhart, Charles |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2018–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:90610&r=his |
| By: | Honningdal Grytten, Ola (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This manuscript presents a new combined annual cost of living and consumer price index for Norway covering the period 1492-2017. When previous Norwegian historical consumer price indices partly were constructed on the basis of very limited data, the new historical index is constructed on a significantly richer data material. This is made possible by the compilation of quantitative data from numerous sources, mostly originating from the eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth century.The new index makes it possible to follow annual living costs in Norway for 525 years. When comparing to existing price indices the new series reveals that it is needed to make some major revisions of Norwegian price history. |
| Keywords: | Price index; price history; purchasing power parity; economic history |
| JEL: | E31 N13 N14 N24 N34 |
| Date: | 2018–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2018_026&r=his |
| By: | Martina Cioni; Govanni Federico; Michelangelo Vasta |
| Abstract: | The growing appeal of the long run perspective among economists and the fiftieth anniversary of the of the publication of the Conrad and Meyer article (1958), which signed the Cliometric Revolution, have attracted a lot of interest on the origin and the development of Economic history. This paper explores the evolution of the field with a new articulated database of all the 6,516 articles published in five journals (Economic History Review, Journal of Economic History, Explorations in Economic History, European Review of Economic History and Cliometrica) from their establishment to 2017. We show that these journals are the most important in the field, with a wide influence also outside it. Our main results are that the Cliometric Revolution took quite a long time to fully display its effects, which became evident only in the 1990s, when personal computer and software packages became available. Finally, as for the last two decades, we find that the process of integration of economic history into economics is, so far, slower than previously suggested and limited to US. On the other hand, the most striking and neglected change is the overall success of Continental European scholars within the field. Are these changes the harbinger of a new divergence between the two shores of the Atlantic with the rise of a new paradigm based on the “Historical economics” approach? It is too early to tell. |
| JEL: | N01 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:791&r=his |
| By: | Bukowski, Paweł |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect on current student performance of the 19th century Partitions of Poland among Austria, Prussia and Russia. Using a regression discontinuity design, I show that student test scores are 0.6 standard deviations higher on the Austrian side of the former Austrian-Russian border, despite the modern similarities of the three regions. However, I do not find evidence for differences across the Prussian-Russian border. Using a theoretical model and indirect evidence, I argue that the Partitions have persisted through their impact on social norms toward local schools. Nevertheless, the persistent effect of Austria is puzzling, given the historical similarities of the Austrian and Prussian education systems. I argue that the differential legacy of Austria and Prussia originates from the Austrian Empire’s policy to promote Polish identity in schools and the Prussian Empire’s efforts to Germanize the Poles through education. |
| JEL: | I20 J24 N30 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:90643&r=his |
| By: | Varian, Brian D. |
| Abstract: | The Ford thesis argued that there was a short-term causal relationship between British overseas investment and British merchandise exports in the late nineteenth century. However, economic historians since Ford have found little empirical evidence in support of this argument. Using data on bilateral British lending, this article finds that such a relationship did exist, with British ex ante lending preceding merchandise exports by 2 years. A case study of New Zealand, which had an extraordinarily high share of Britain in its imports, reveals that the relationship was conditional upon the lending being allocated to social overhead capital. |
| Keywords: | Britain; gold standard; New Zealand; overseas investment; trade |
| JEL: | F21 N73 N77 |
| Date: | 2017–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68925&r=his |
| By: | Freeman, Alan |
| Abstract: | This is a prepublication version of the published article of the same name and should be cited as "Freeman, A. 2018. Introduction to Michel Husson's 'Value and Price: a critique of neo-Ricardian Claims' Capital and Class Vol 42, Issue 3, 2018, pp 509-516" Michel Husson originally published this landmark article in French as Manuel Perez (1980). It thus offers a new generation of Marx scholars a resource which academic Marxism has rejected, except for a minority tradition in which this article played a foundational role: the opportunity to understand, and grapple with, Marx’s own economics. This introduction aims to explain, to such new readers, the key role which Husson’s article played in advancing our understanding of Marx’s theory of value. It appeared nine years after Paul Samuelson (1971) pronounced Marx’s value theory a failure, and three years after English Marxist Ian Steedman (1977) formally endorsed this verdict. Husson set out the first, and in many ways the most comprehensive concise rebuttal of these claims. |
| Keywords: | Value, Marx, TSSI |
| JEL: | B14 B24 C00 |
| Date: | 2017–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89949&r=his |
| By: | Lars Mewes |
| Abstract: | Cities are epicenters for invention. Scaling analyses have verified the productivity of cities and demonstrate a super-linear relationship between cities? population size and invention performance. However, little is known about what kinds of inventions correlate with city size. Is the productivity of cities only limited to invention quantity? We shift the focus on the quality of idea creation by investigating how cities influence the art of knowledge combination. Atypical combinations introduce novel and unexpected linkages between knowledge domains. They express creativity in inventions and are particularly important for technological breakthroughs. Our study of 174 years of invention history in metropolitan areas in the United States (US) reveals a super-linear scaling of atypical combination with population size. The observed scaling grows over time indicating a geographic shift towards cities since the early 20th century. The productivity of large cities is thus not only restricted to quantity, but also includes quality in invention processes. |
| Keywords: | Atypical Knowledge Combination, Cities, Historic Patent Data, Invention; Scaling Analysis |
| JEL: | O30 O31 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1841&r=his |
| By: | Child, Travers Barclay; Nikolova, Elena |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run effects of con ict on social attitudes, with World War II in Central and Eastern Europe as our setting. Much of earlier work has relied on self- reported measures of victimization, which are prone to endogenous misreporting. With our own survey-based measure, we replicate established findings linking victimization to political participation, civic engagement, optimism, and trust. Those findings are reversed, however, when tested instead with an objective measure of victimization based on historical reference material. Thus, we urge caution when interpreting survey- based results from this literature as causal. |
| Keywords: | conflict,social attitudes,World War II |
| JEL: | D74 N44 P20 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:279&r=his |
| By: | Carmona, Juan; Lampe, Markus; Rosés, Joan |
| Abstract: | During the decades prior to the Civil War, Spain experienced a rapid process of urbanization, which was accompanied by the demographic transition and sizeable rural–urban migrations. This article investigates how urban housing markets reacted to these far-reaching changes, which increased demand for dwellings. To this end, this study employs a new hedonic index of real housing prices and constructs a cross-regional panel dataset of rents and housing price fundamentals. This new evidence indicates that rents were not a significant financial burden on low-income families and, hence, housing was affordable for the working classes. The article also shows that families’ access to new homes was facilitated by a sizeable growth in the housing supply. Substantial investments in urban infrastructure and the institutional framework enabled the construction of new homes at affordable prices. Our results suggest that housing problems were not as pervasive during the urban transition as the literature often seems to claim. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68886&r=his |
| By: | Gabriel Mathy (American University); Christian Roatta (The London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | Economic analysts were not able to forecast the Great Contraction of the early 1930s, as previous work has shown (Goldfarb et al., 2005; Mathy and Stekler, 2016). In 1937, with full recovery from the Depression still incomplete, another severe recession struck which lasted about a year. We use a well-established method to convert qualitative forecasts into quantitative scores and use these scores to study forecaster performance in this period. For the peak of the business cycle, we find similar results for this recession as for the 1929-1933 recession in that forecasters largely failed to forecast this downturn. Forecasters also remained overoptimistic throughout the recession, seeing a recovery as imminent, and failed to forecast the recession’s trough. We discuss similarities and differences with the performance of business analysts in the 1929-1933 and 1937-1938 recessions, as well as the methods and heuristics used to construct forecasts in this period. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Forecasting, Textual Analysis, Great Depression, 1937-1938 recession, Qualitative/Quantitative analysis |
| JEL: | E37 N12 C53 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2018-004&r=his |
| By: | Francisco J. Medina-Albaladejo (Universidad de Valencia, Spain); María Dolores Añón-Higón (Universidad de Valencia, Spain); Alfonso Díez-Minguela (Universidad de Valencia, Spain); José Miguel Lana-Berasain (Universidad Pública de Navarra, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Different factors have been proposed to explain why in some regions there is a greater tendency to form cooperatives. Although the debate remains open, the literature offers several interpretations. On the one hand, some studies have stressed the role played by human capital, market access and institutions, among other factors, while other studies have pointed to path dependence, that is to say, the development of social capital and trust within a society in the past encourages cooperation. Disentangling both effects is far from trivial and requires a careful analysis. In this study, we look at the spread of cooperativism within Catalonia from 1860 to 1939. Catalonia was not just the leading industrial region in Spain, but also where cooperatives first emerged and had a greater presence. In line with the existing evidence, we find that cooperativism spread from coastal municipalities to the hinterland. In this regard, it appears that literacy and accessibility facilitated this process. Besides, social capital cannot be discarded as a relevant factor, especially in rural contexts. |
| Keywords: | Cooperatives, Human Capital, Social Capital, Knowledge Transfer, Catalonia |
| JEL: | P13 Z13 N9 N3 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:1808&r=his |
| By: | Tea Karchava (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University); Tea Tsitlanadze (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University); Murman Papashvili (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University); Nikoloz Silagadze (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University); Andro Gogoladze (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University) |
| Abstract: | It is indisputable that the active work of the trade companies in the Tudor period was one of the factors determining economic power of England. Before the British East-India Company began to struggle with the Portuguese for the positions in India the representatives of the English ?Muscovy Company? had 7 visits in the East in 1558-1581.?After entering the Moscow market, the British tried to use the Volga rout and to establish trade relationship with India and China through Central Asia and Persia, but the trade with China was actually reduced to nil due to turbulent situation in oriental countries. Trade with India did not seem prospective either ? their hot climate and poverty of local people was not a favorable prospect for English broadcloth. ? Disillusioned with his plan about China and India, Jenkinson turned his attention to Safavid Persia (where the main export product was silk, so desirable for Europeans) and obtained a sanction from the ?Muscovy Company? to trade in that direction. However, he also needed permission of the Moscow ruler, Ivan Grozny for which Jenkinson offered his service that is apparent from the relazione about his trip to Persia. ?Jenkinson's notifications (which provides significant information about Shirvan located on the shores of the Caspian Sea and its neighboring Georgian kingdoms in the South Caucasus, where the raw silk was produced) clearly demonstrates the wide profile of the trips of British merchants - diplomatic flexibility and understanding of political situation, in addition to their primary economic interests. After reading and analyzing the entire context of his report, if we try to connect the facts of the fragments, where Anthony Jenkinson mentions the Georgians and compare them with the Persian and Georgian sources of that period, we can reconstruct of the historical events and correct understanding of the processes in 16th century Georgia.?Although, Jenkinson could not achieve privilegies in Kazvin, he managed to make contacts with Indian merchants, who gave him hope that he could trade with spices throughout Persia. More specific result was waiting for him on the way back to the South Caucasus, where he visited one of his most desirable hosts in all the Safavid Iran - the ruler of Shirvan, Abdula Han. He received the separate and valuable privilegies from him that allowed him to exchange English wool products into the Iranian silk. |
| Keywords: | Trade Agents; Commerce; Economic Interests; Diplomatic relations. |
| JEL: | N90 B11 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7309843&r=his |
| By: | Spahn, Peter |
| Abstract: | Mercantilist theories and policies in early capitalism have been criticized for confusing microeconomic and macroeconomic sources of wealth, for misunderstanding the benefits of free trade, and for overrating the role of money. This paper aims to reconstruct the rationality of mercantilism as an efficient strategy of economic development. It presents a critical assessment of David Hume's specie flow mechanism that counts as a major rebuttal of mercantilism and collects insights of early writers into the working of a monetary economy. |
| Keywords: | trade war,trade surplus,specie flow mechanism,bank reserves,development |
| JEL: | B1 F4 N1 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:262018&r=his |
| By: | Guillermo Lezama (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Departamento de Economía); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | We propose different alternatives of inequality estimation for economies with a big agricultural sector where land is a decisive factor in income generation and where we do not have enough information about personal earnings. To this end, we use the Uruguayan case to test our methodology, because: (i) Uruguay’s economy has the characteristics described above; (ii) we have some information available about incomes and economically active population in agriculture and (iii) we can also contrast our series with previous estimates. We propose six analytical exercises where Gini indexes are calculated, and as reference we choose the estimation that better adjusts to some theoretical and empirical conditions. Finally, we check the historical accuracy of the series by looking at explanatory variables of income distribution and the shape of the Inequality possibility frontier. Our results are consistent with the economic and social events of the period (1870-1912) and with previous estimates which reveal worsening trends in income distribution. Our annual data allow capturing the dynamics of the process where breaks in the series are observed and improvements and declines alternate in the evolution of income distribution. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, historical statistics, First Globalization, Gini, Uruguay |
| JEL: | N36 O15 D31 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-06-18&r=his |
| By: | Ansgar Belke (University of Duisburg-Essen); Ulrich Volz (SOAS, University of London) |
| Abstract: | Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the Yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with "expensive Yen recessions" resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong Yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates the effects of changes to the Yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the paper uses both aggregate and industry-specific data to gauge the effects of Yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry-specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong Yen played a role, too. |
| Keywords: | Yen appreciation,exchange rates,Japanese manufacturing,hollowing out,Hysteresis |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01917940&r=his |
| By: | Jennifer A. Holland; Kenneth Aarskaug Wiik; Lars Dommermuth (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | The family life courses of immigrants and their descendants, particularly intermarriage and the timing of marriage and childbearing, have been widely studied as indicators of societal integration. But largely absent are investigations into the role of cohabitation in the family lives of these subpopulations. Choosing cohabitation as first union may, for instance, signal secularization and less social control. Using Norwegian register data on all first co-residential unions entered 2006-2015 among individuals born 1980 or later (N=218,833 unions, 80.5% cohabitations), we consider associations between partner choice and subsequent partnership transitions. Around half of first unions including second-generation individuals were cohabitations, among which 88% were exogamous (i.e., partners originating from different countries or with a majority partner). These exogamous cohabiting couples were more dissolution-prone and less likely to marry than endogamous immigrant and second-generation cohabiting couples. Among second-generation couples who married directly, on the other hand, 79% were endogamous. These marriages were less likely to divorce than their first-generation counterparts. |
| Keywords: | First union; Partner choice; Marriage; Cohabitation; Union dissolution; Second generation; Immigrants |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:887&r=his |
| By: | Frédéric Pourtier (CRECCI - Centre de Recherche en Contrôle et Comptabilité Internationale - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux 4) |
| Abstract: | This work is an overview of a little-known and controversial subject: the Equity Method. It proposes a summary of its history and numerous algebraic variants, and accounting and financial research on the subject. We go back over its history from the early stages of consolidation in the early 20th century until the present day, and we underline its relic-‐ method nature in certain respects. It covers no less than six variants identified by this work depending on standards and countries, depending on whether it is applied to non-‐consolidated or consolidated accounts, and depending on the period. This algebraic variety places it between the Cost Method and the real consolidation methods, the Proportionate Method and Full Consolidation. It is a method suspected of fostering earnings and debt management, so most of the research on this subject is presented in this work, notably in the context of the positive accounting theory. But research work on this subject is limited in volume and irregularly distributed in time and space. We then show that recent regulatory changes in Europe (IFRS 11 and the amendment of IAS 27) and the relative scarcity of research, which is mostly British and American, open up numerous areas of research in light of the many issues which have either not yet been considered or have found no answer in the renewal of the regulatory environment. |
| Abstract: | Ce travail fait un état des lieux sur un sujet méconnu et controversé : la Equity Method. Il propose une synthèse à la fois de son histoire, de ses nombreuses variantes algébriques, et des recherches comptables ou financières qui l'ont abordée. Nous retraçons son parcours des prémices de la consolidation au début du 20ème siècle jusqu'à aujourd'hui et, soulignons son caractère vestigiale (relic-‐method) par certains aspects. Elle ne couvre pas moins de six variantes recensées par ce travail selon les normes et pays, selon qu'elle est appliquée dans les comptes sociaux ou consolidés, ou selon les époques. Cette variété algébrique la place entre la Cost Method et les vraies méthodes de consolidation, Proportionate Method et Full Consolidation. C'est une méthode suspectée de favoriser la gestion des résultats et de la dette, aussi l'essentiel des recherches sur ce sujet est présenté dans ce travail, notamment dans le cadre de la théorie positive comptable. Mais les travaux qui l'ont étudiée sont limités en nombre et irrégulièrement répartis dans le temps et dans l'espace. Nous montrons alors que l'évolution réglementaire récente en Europe (IFRS 11 et amendement de l'IAS 27) et la relative rareté des recherches, essentiellement anglo-‐saxonnes, ouvrent de nombreux axes de recherche à la lumière des multiples questions qui, soit n'ont pas encore été envisagées, soit n'ont pas trouvé de réponse dans le renouveau des contextes réglementaires. |
| Keywords: | Equity method,scope management,earnings management,debt management,positive accounting,Mise en équivalence,gestion du périmètre,gestion du résultat,gestion de la dette,théorie positive |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01907503&r=his |
| By: | Jon H. Fiva; Simon Hix |
| Abstract: | Electoral reform creates new strategic coordination incentives for voters, but these effects are difficult to isolate. We identify how the reform of the Norwegian electoral system in 1919, when single-member districts (SMDs) were replaced with multi- member proportional representation (PR), shaped voter behavior. Our dataset allows us to measure vote-shares of parties in the pre-reform SMDs and in the same geographic units in the post-reform multi-member districts. The electoral reform had an immediate effect on the fragmentation of the party system in Norway, due in part to strategic party entry. We find, though, that another main effect of the reform was that many voters switched between existing parties, particularly between the Liberals and Conservatives, as the incentives for these voters to coordinate against Labor were removed by the introduction of PR. This has implications for how we understand electoral reform, particularly in the early part of the 20th century. |
| Keywords: | electoral reform, proportional representation, voter behavior |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7289&r=his |
| By: | Andrea Morrison |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the impact of spinoff generation events on the performance of parent organizations. Using data from the Italian motorcycle industry (1893-1993), we find that parents have higher survival chances after a spinoff generation event, confirming results from previous studies about other manufacturing industries. We also show that these enhanced survival patterns differ across time and space, and we link these effects to institutional differences: spinoff generation did not determine any survival advantage for parent firms in the Fascist era and in the Turin cluster, while it had an additional positive effect in the Motorvalley cluster. The paper contributes to the literature on spinoff generation and employee mobility and adds to the debate on the role of institutions in evolutionary economic geography, by showing the importance of contextual factors for the performance of parent firms. |
| Keywords: | Spinoffs, Employee entrepreneurship, Parents, Institutions, Evolutionary economic geography |
| JEL: | B52 L26 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1840&r=his |
| By: | ISMAIL NOORI MSEER (Ahlia University- Bahrain) |
| Abstract: | The current world is experiencing rapid changes and transformations steps are hastily and powerfully continuous, and developments that have occurred in an unprecedented manner. Although the twentieth century had been described as being a condensation of five years from human civilization through scientific inventions and discoveries, the twenty-one century is full of technologies, commutations, and knowledge where the culture of image and supposed reality. Accordingly, the world goes as a village but more than to the extent that it can be gathered in the electronic device and less than one's hand palm in size.This is the era of abbreviating what has been already abbreviated, Nanotechnology, Cybernetics and control, open space where the speed, accuracy, and effectiveness for decision-making in terms of power and experience. This era depends on information, deep combination of specializations, and the serious search for strengthening the cultural democracy, and confirming the transparency through constructive dialogue and active participation, and spreading the tolerance and co-existence. Consequently, it is important to review the most prevalent relations and patterns. |
| Keywords: | Empowerment , sustainable developments , Nanotechnology, participation |
| JEL: | D71 A30 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:8109061&r=his |
| By: | Andrew Coleman; Özer Karagedikli (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | We construct a long time series of permanent and long-term arrivals and departures of construction workers to and from New Zealand between 1962 and 2018. After briefly describing the data and the sources, we discuss some key observations in the data. We observe that the large outflow of construction workers following the collapse of construction sector activity in the mid-1970s, combined with changes to migration rules in the early 1990s, led to a significant, persistent reduction in the net migration of construction workers. That reduction was probably partly responsible for the capacity constraints we currently observe in the construction sector. |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2018/08&r=his |
| By: | Mouna Kohil (Ecole Supérieure des Technologies Industrielles-Annaba) |
| Abstract: | The present works aims at exploring the Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde by the Scottish author Robert Louis Stevenson in the light of the theme of duality. It provides an understanding on the issue of restraining and repressing one?s lower side due the constraints of decency, which may lead to creation of another character which acts as an escape tool from these restraints. The work analyzes the various aspects of duality by exposing Dr Jekyll?s contradictions and his wild tendencies. It explains how the respectable doctor resorted to a magical potion in order to create an outlet for his wild self. Mr Hyde, who represents Dr Jekyll?s double, is portrayed as a monstrous villain which terrorizes the Victorian society. In his novella, Stevenson warns from the unethical use of knowledge and the horrors of holding back human natural instincts. |
| Keywords: | duality, the double, Dr Jekyll, Mr Hyde, repression |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:8109210&r=his |
| By: | Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, USA, and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the impact of the U.S. presidential cycles on the dollar relative to the British pound over the longest possible monthly period of 1791:01 to 2018:10, based on an Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. The usage of over two centuries of data controls for sample selection bias, while an EGARCH model accommodates for omitted variable bias. We find that over the entire sample period, the Democratic regime does indeed depreciate the dollar relative to the pound. However, when we identify structural breaks based on formal statistical analysis, we find that the full-sample result is primarily driven by the period covering 1827:01 to 1932:09, but in the recent period of 1932:10 to 2018:10, when Democrats have been in power, the dollar has in fact appreciated relative to the pound. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Rate, U.S. Presidential Cycles |
| JEL: | C32 D72 F31 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201874&r=his |
| By: | Silvia Altmark (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Estadística); Karina Larruina (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Estadística); Gabriela Mordecki (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze Uruguayans living abroad that visit Uruguay for their holidays, what in the literature is called Nostalgic tourism or Visiting friends and relatives (VFR) tourism. Several studies point Uruguay as one of the South American countries with the largest proportion of its population living abroad. In addition, tourism is a very important economic activity in Uruguay. Visitors from Argentina have been always the majority in the Uruguayan inbound tourism. During 2017 in Uruguay 68% of total tourists were Argentinians, 12,5% Brazilians, and 8% VFR tourists. This last share was near 16% during the first decade of this century and even higher in the XXth. century. We analyze and estimate the VFR tourism demand in Uruguay, and compare it with Argentinian tourist demand, since the majority of VFR tourists live in Argentina (64%). After characterizing VFR tourists, we apply Johansen methodology and built four models: two for VFR tourism and two for Argentinian tourism, considering monthly data for the number of tourists and quarterly data for tourists’ expenditure. Applying Johansen methodology, we found at least one Vector error-correction model (VEC) equation for each model considered. In the first two models (taking into account the number of tourists), the elasticities (income and prices) were smaller for VFR tourists compared with Argentinian tourists, meaning that the number of VFR tourists react less to changes in income or relative prices than Argentinians. But in the case of tourists’ expenditure, the result was the opposite, with VFR tourists responding more to changes in prices or income than Argentinians. Impulse response functions show a greater reaction of Argentinian tourists to changes in relative prices, but similar in the case of an income shock. Finally, forecasts show a good adjust of the forecast to actual data. |
| Keywords: | VFR tourism, real exchange rate, Uruguay, cointegration |
| JEL: | C22 F41 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-08-18&r=his |
| By: | Hossein Hassani (The Statistical Research Centre, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, UK); Mohammad Reza Yeganegi (Department of Accounting, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch, Iran); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Riza Demirer (Department of Economics and Finance, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville, USA.) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the potential role of economic inequality for forecasting the stock market volatility of the United Kingdom (UK). Utilizing linear and nonlinear models as well as measures of consumption and income inequalities over the period of 1975 to 2016, we find that linear models incorporating the information of growth in inequality indeed produce lower forecast errors. These models, however, do not necessarily outperform the univariate linear and nonlinear models based on formal statistical forecast comparison tests, especially in short- to medium-runs. On the other hand, at a one-year-ahead horizon, absolute measure of consumption inequality results in significant statistical gains for stock market volatility predictions. We argue that the long-run predictive power of consumption inequality is driven by its informational content over both political and social uncertainty in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | Income and Consumption Inequalities, Stock Markets, Realized Volatility, Forecasting, Linear and Nonlinear Models, United Kingdom |
| JEL: | C22 G1 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201880&r=his |
| By: | Pierre Labardin (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antoine Fabre |
| Abstract: | This paper refers to works on social control features (Walker 2016). Based on archival material, it studies the introduction of a cost accounting system in French Guiana penal colony during the 1860's, with social control purpose. The aim of this paper is to deal with Walker's forms of social control in depth, detailing effects (correct, restrain and confirmatory). Then, three consequencies of social control are considered : resistance phenomenons, change in initial goals induced by accounting, and finally the necessity to develop new tools for social control ends. |
| Abstract: | ce papier s'inscrit dans la littérature sur les modalités du contrôle social (Walker, 2016). Il part d'une recherche archivistique sur la mise en place du calcul des coûts dans les années 1860 dans les bagnes en Guyane, dans une finalité de contrôle social. Le papier met en évidence deux types d'apports : il permet d'abord d'approfondir les catégories de Walker sur les modalités du contrôle social (correct, restrain and confirmatory) en détaillant les effets. Ensuite, il permet d'enrichir cette littérature en mettant en évidence trois conséquences du contrôle social : les phénomènes de résistance d'une part, le changement des objectifs initiaux du fait des changements qu'induit l'outil comptable et enfin la nécessité de mettre en place de nouveaux outils pour assurer le contrôle social. |
| Keywords: | French Guiana penal colony,cost accounting,social control,accounting history,bagnes de Guyane,calcul de coût,contrôle social,histoire de la comptabilité |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01907537&r=his |
| By: | Joon Nak Choi (Adjunct Assistant Professor，School of Business and Management, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies， Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Joon Nak Choi, Adjunct Assistant Professor at the School of Business and Management and Faculty Associate at the Institute for Emerging Market Studies at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, expressed his view on the Export-oriented industrialization in Korean economy. As firms in a rising China have upgraded their industrial competitiveness, Korean firms have lost ground in industries that they dominated not long ago. Prioritizing capabilities needed for export-oriented industrialization had the unintended effect of stunting SMEs and limiting their capabilities. It is important for Korea to focus on policies intended to remedy the historical underdevelopment of the SME sector. |
| Keywords: | korea, financial inclusion, china, entrepreneurship |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:briefs:201823&r=his |
| By: | Guo, Yanling |
| Abstract: | The first attempt in the human history to consciously create money ended in a collapse in 1720, well-known as the money mania. This unfortunate start raises doubt on money creation as a whole such that today there are still voices questioning created money even though it is now indispensible for the world economy. But this misfortune also has the bright side in that it delivers an extensive example of risks which created money has to consider. In this paper, I review the central facts from the money mania and highlight lessons we can still learn from it. |
| Keywords: | money mania,money creation,convertible money,non-convertible money,John Law,risk |
| JEL: | B19 E40 E59 N23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20183&r=his |
| By: | Liu, Y.; Ker, A. |
| Abstract: | County crop yield data from USDA-NASS are extensively used in the literature as well as practice. In many applications, yield data are adjusted for the first two moments then assumed independent and identically distributed. For most major crop-region combinations, yield data exist from 1955 onwards and reflect significant innovations in both seed and farm management technologies. These innovations have likely changed the yield distribution raising doubt regarding the identically distributed assumption. We consider the question of how much historical yield data should be used in empirical analyses. First, we use distributional tests to assess if and when the adjusted yield data result from different DGPs. Second, we consider the application to crop insurance by using an out-of-sample rating. Third, we estimate DGPs and then simulate to quantify the additional error. Overall, the results indicate that using yield data more than 30 years old can substantially increase estimation error. Given that discarding data is unappetizing, we propose three methodologies that can re-incorporate the discarded data. Our results suggest gains in efficiency by using these methodologies. While our results are most applicable to the crop insurance literature, we certainly feel they suggest proceeding with caution when using historical yield data in other applications. Acknowledgement : |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277293&r=his |
| By: | Brunt, Liam (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Fidalgo, Antonio (Fresenius University of Applied Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Using a large, new dataset of agricultural prices and quantities for many countries and regions, we create five new international Geary-Khamis pounds – for 1870, 1845, 1775, 1705, and a superior chained series. We show that estimated levels and changes in output per worker look very different – more extreme – using 1705 international pounds and 1990 international dollars, compared to all other series; growth rates appear substantially higher using 1990 international dollars. In short, out-of-sample baskets and/or prices create extremely unreliable output estimates. We also show that individual country price indices (rather than international indices) can generate substantially different estimated growth rates. |
| Keywords: | Geary-Khamis prices; economic growth; international comparisons; price indices |
| JEL: | C43 C82 N10 N50 |
| Date: | 2018–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2018_025&r=his |
| By: | Costa, Francisco; Marcantonio, Angelo; Rocha, Rudi |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on religious conversion. We exploit the Brazilian trade liberalization to study the effects of local economic shocks on affiliation to Pentecostal Evangelicalism across Brazilian regions between 1991 and 2010. We find that regions more exposed to trade-induced economic downturns experienced an increase in Pentecostal affiliation during the 1990s, accompanied by a decrease in adherents to other Christian denominations. Our estimates show that this conversion persisted over the following decade. We also show that economic downturns are associated with the growth in the vote share of candidates explicitly connected to Pentecostal churches in national elections in both the short and long run. |
| Date: | 2018–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:804&r=his |
| By: | Yasuhiro Sakai (Faculty of Economics, Shiga University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter aims to carefully discuss how Frank H. Knight, the "Grand Old @Man" of Chicago, dealt with uncertainty and profit, with special reference to manager versus entrepreneur. Frankly speaking, Knight was a sort of man in paradox, having a dualistic view and adopting an eclectic approach. In order to shed a new light on his life and work, we first argue that there possibly exist some traces of the great Knight in the words and deeds of Martin Bronfenbrenner, once one of Knight's students at Chicago. Then we focus on the distinction between risk and uncertainty. According to Knight, non-measurable uncertainty must radically be different from measurable risk: only uncertainty, but not risk, enables the entrepreneur to acquire true profit as its reward. In contrast to the manager who are doing just routine jobs every day, the entrepreneur dares to engage in new venturous activities, thus playing the central figure of the capitalist system. We live in the new age of uncertainty. The second Knight is urgently needed. |
| Keywords: | Frank H. Knight, Martin Bronfenbrenner, risk, uncertainty, manager, entrepreneur, profit, capitalist system |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shg:dpapea:32&r=his |
| By: | Jakob Grazzini; Domenico Massaro |
| Abstract: | We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general equilibrium model and calibrate it to US data in order to characterize the contribution of micro level productivity shocks, inter-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility. Our results show that changes in sectoral volatility played an important role in shaping volatility at the aggregate level. Moreover, asymmetries in the economic structure sometimes had an amplifying, and other times a dampening effect on aggregate volatility. We show that the different impact depends on the time-varying correlation between sectoral volatilities and the relative importance of specific sectors in the economy. |
| Keywords: | business cycle, micro-macro volatility, input-output network |
| JEL: | E32 E23 D57 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7272&r=his |
| By: | Sigurdur Gudjonsson (University of Akureyri) |
| Abstract: | In this presentation the current stage of the microfinance industry will be described. The microfinance industry has increased drastically over the last few decades. It began as a handful of institutions in the late 1970´s but is now a growing market with thousands of institutions. Most of the microfinance institutions are in the developing countries, particularly in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Recently, however, microfinance institutions are being established in the developed world. In addition in the presentation, a history of past failure of subsidized loans is explained. Different but important contributions from Stiglitz and Yunnus are accounted for. Finally, the microfinance industry´s current state and potential future growth will be described. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance, poverty, loans |
| JEL: | M10 M14 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:8110448&r=his |