nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒10‒29
24 papers chosen by

  1. Benefits of empire? Capital market integration north and south of the Alps, 1350-1800 By Chilosi, David; Schulze, Max-Stephan; Volckart, Oliver
  2. Labour Shares and Income Inequality: Insights from Italian Economic History, 1895-2015 By Giacomo Gabbuti
  3. The origins of Swiss wealth management? Genevan private banking, 1800–1840 By Stefano Ugolini
  4. Daniel Ellsberg on J.M. Keynes and F.H. Knight:Risk, Ambiguity and Uncertainty By Yasuhiro Sakai
  5. The Historical Evolution of Central Banking By Stefano Ugolini
  6. Why cooperative wineries produced poor quality wine and why they were set up: Evidence from Spain (1895-1935) By Samuel Garrido
  7. Textbooks in the historiography of recent economics By Yann Giraud
  8. The Separation of Directors and Managers: A Historical Examination of the Legal Status of Managers By Blanche Segrestin; Andrew Johnston; Armand Hatchuel
  9. Time-Varying Causal Relationship between Stock Market and Unemployment in the United Kingdom: Historical Evidence from 1855 to 2017 By Xolani Sibande; Rangan Gupta; Mark E. Wohar
  10. The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing-out of Japanese Industry By Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
  11. Colonial Banks, Credit, and Circulation: The Example of Martinique 1848-1871 By Agnès Festré; Alain Raybaut
  12. Revisiting Vagrancy and Loitering Provisions in the Light of International Law By Lizette Grobler
  13. Guilds and mutual protection in England By Wallis, Patrick
  14. Central banking through the centuries By Ivo Maes
  15. "Two Harvard Economists on Monetary Economics: Lauchlin Currie and Hyman Minsky on Financial Systems and Crises" By Ivan D. Velasquez
  16. 100 Years of Austrian Economy By Fritz Breuss
  17. Fame as an Illusion of Creativity: Evidence from the Pioneers of Abstract Art By Mitali, Banerjee; Ingram, Paul L.
  18. Is Cash Dead? Using Economic Concepts To Motivate Learning and Economic Thinking By Philip Gunby; Stephen Hickson
  19. Is There Too Much History in Historical Yield Data By Liu, Yong; Ker, Alan P.
  20. On totalitarianism and its levers : the study of Sismondi as a user’s manual By Florent Pirot
  21. Simulating Mine Revenues with Historical Gold Price Data from the Bank of England By Bell, Peter
  22. Thailand?s Approaches in Managing Migrant Workers, 1978 - 2008 By Numtip Smerchuar
  23. Oil Price-Inflation Pass-Through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A Wavelet Coherency Analysis By Aviral Kumar Tiwari; Juncal Cunado; Abdulnasser Hatemi-J; Rangan Gupta
  24. The margins of trade: market entry and sector spillovers, the case of Italy (1862-1913) By Jacopo Timini

  1. By: Chilosi, David; Schulze, Max-Stephan; Volckart, Oliver
    Abstract: This paper addresses two questions. First, when and to what extent did capital markets integrate north and south of the Alps? Second, how mobile was capital? Analysing a unique new dataset on pre-modern urban annuities, we find that northern markets were consistently better integrated than Italian markets. Long-term integration was driven by initially peripheral places in the Netherlands and Upper Germany integrating with the rest of the Holy Roman Empire where the distance and volume of inter-urban investments grew primarily in the sixteenth century. The institutions of the Empire contributed to stronger market integration north of the Alps
    Keywords: capital market; market integration; early modern Europe
    JEL: N0 F3 G3
    Date: 2018–09–07
  2. By: Giacomo Gabbuti
    Abstract: This paper develops theoretical and practical motivations for studying the functional distribution of income in the past. Italy is adopted as a case study, by reason of the availability of long-run estimates on personal income inequality. The historical importance of self-employment and the recent increase in labour’s share make the Italian historical experience of further general interest. New estimates from 1895 show Italian workers accruing a low share of national income until 1945. By the end of the 1950s and the economic miracle, shares had rapidly converged to the European average. Italian history shows that studying the functional distribution of income deepens our understanding of long run distributional trends, as well as of key distributive episodes, and makes a compelling case for approaching income inequality by combining diverse sources and methodologies.
    Keywords: economic inequality, factor shares, functional distribution, Italy, labour share
    JEL: B12 D63 J31 N14 N34
    Date: 2018–10–23
  3. By: Stefano Ugolini (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - ENSFEA - École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville)
    Abstract: Geneva is host to the most ancient and venerable private banks of Switzerland, but not much is known about the circumstances in which the city allegedly developed an early competitive advantage in wealth management. Using an extraordinary qualitative source (Jacques Mirabaud's papers, and especially his memoirs), this article outlines the microstructure of Genevan private banking at the time of its emergence in the early nineteenth century. It finds that in those years, wealth managers' "raw material" did not consist of foreign capital, but of a remarkably abundant stock of domestic capital. Financial and social factors were intertwined in producing a very hierarchical division of labour in the origination and distribution of international sovereign loans.
    Keywords: Financial centres,Private banking,Sovereign loans,Geneva
    Date: 2018–08
  4. By: Yasuhiro Sakai (Faculty of Economics, Shiga University)
    Abstract: This paper aims to focus on the life and work of Daniel Ellsberg, with an intensive discussion on its relation to J.M. Keynes and F.H. Knight, the two great pioneers of the economics of uncertainty. Ellsberg seems to be a man in paradox. When he was young, he was an outstanding researcher at Harvard University and the RAND Corporation; at the December Meting of the Econometric Society in 1960, he presented his remarkable paper in which he successfully demonstrated what we may now call Ellsberg's paradox against the traditional expected theory a la Daniel Bernoulli and von Neumann. Although it was published with the title "Risk, ambiguity and decision" in the November issue of the Quarterly Journal of Economics, it was not paid due attention for a long time. It was partly because he was so preoccupied in the 1960s and onward by letting the general public know the Pentagon papers that he could virtually have no time left to engage in purely academic activities. In the 21st century, however, the times have changed in favor of Ellsberg: we can see the dramatic return of interest in decision making under ambiguity. Chapter ‡U will deal with uncertainties that are not risks. A focal point of discussion will be the similarity and difference between Keynes and Knight. Kenneth Arrow's skepticism about Knight on uncertainty will also be paid due attention. Chapter ‡V, the main part of this paper, will turn to the concept of ambiguity that was first introduced by Ellsberg. The two-color problem and the three color problem will systematically be examined by help of numerical representations. Chapter ‡W will tell us many alternative ways to solve the so-called Ellsberg paradox. Presumably, the Keynesian approach by means of interval-valued probabilities will be shown to be very simple and highly effective. In our opinion, the most amazing Ellsberg paradox lies in the fact that an accomplished economist specialized in the aversion of risk and uncertainty dared to make a personal choice to risk everything such as degrading his social status and putting him in prison for a long period. Surely, the intellectual legacy of Ellsberg seems to be an intriguing research in paradox.
    Keywords: Ellsberg, Keynes, Knight, risk, ambiguity, uncertainty
    JEL: B21 B22 D81 E12
    Date: 2018–06
  5. By: Stefano Ugolini (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - ENSFEA - École Nationale Supérieure de Formation de l'Enseignement Agricole de Toulouse-Auzeville)
    Abstract: "Central banking" is what a central bank does, but the definition of "central bank" is less straightforward than it may appear at first sight. Following Ugolini (2017), this chapter defines central banking as the provision of public policies aimed at fostering monetary and financial stability, and surveys the historical evolution of such policies in the West from the Middle Ages to today. It shows that institutional equilibria mattered a lot in shaping the way stabilization policies were implemented: central banking evolved in markedly distinct ways in city states (like Venice, Amsterdam, Hamburg, Barcelona, or Genoa), centralized territorial polities (like Naples, Sweden, England, Austria, or France), or decentralized territorial polities (like the United States or the European Union). As a result, the historical evolution of central banking does not appear to have been driven by the "survival of the fittest", but rather by the constant adaptation of policymaking to changing political economy equilibria.
    Keywords: Central banking,Monetary institutions,Public policy,Political economy
    Date: 2018–05–18
  6. By: Samuel Garrido (Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón-Spain)
    Abstract: Since the 1950s a substantial part of all European wine has come from cooperative wineries, which since their appearance around the year 1900 have mostly produced cheap, poor quality wine. This paper discusses whether this has been a consequence of their inability to solve a collective action problem. After showing that this is not so, it examines why cooperatives concentrated on the production of bad wine and studies why their market share was small before the 1950s. Lastly, it uses data from Spain to analyse the factors determining the creation of cooperative wineries in the early twentieth century.
    Keywords: wine, winemaking cooperatives, cooperative wineries, collective action
    JEL: N53 N54 Q13 L66
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Yann Giraud (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Textbooks are both neglected and at times overused as objects in the history of economics. They are neglected because most historians, borrowing from Kuhn, tend to regard them as passive receptacles of past knowledge, yet they are also overused as shortcuts to study the state of economic doctrine at a certain point in time. Looking at the existing historical literature that studies or uses textbooks, this chapter shows how a better understanding of the specific pedagogical and institutional environments in which textbooks operate can help build thicker and more accurate histories of the role they have played, not just in disseminating, but also in creating and transforming economic knowledge.
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Andrew Johnston (University of Sheffield [Sheffield]); Armand Hatchuel (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: While management emerged as a distinctive function at the turn of the 20 th century, managers, unlike directors, have no particular status in law. This article examines how technological and innovation concerns motivated the rise of management but shows that they were largely overlooked by corporate law after 1945.
    Date: 2018–07
  9. By: Xolani Sibande (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska, USA and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK)
    Abstract: The influence of financial markets on the real economy, including that of stock market returns on unemployment, is a key focus in the literature. Using DCC-MGARCH tests, we analyse time-varying causality between stock market returns and unemployment in the UK using monthly data from 1855 to 2017. The tests reveal that there is significant evidence of information spillover between the stock market and the labour market. This information spillover was found to be significant in the direction of stock market returns to unemployment, insignificant in the opposite direction, and significant bi-directionally. The results were also found to be congruent to the macroeconomic history of the UK.
    Keywords: Time-varying Granger causality, stock market returns, unemployment
    JEL: C12 C32 J01 G14
    Date: 2018–10
  10. By: Belke, Ansgar; Volz, Ulrich
    Abstract: Since the demise of the Bretton Woods, the yen has seen several episodes of strong appreciation, including in the late 1970s, after the 1985 Plaza Agreement, the early and late 1990s and after 2008. These appreciations have not only been associated with “expensive yen recessions” resulting from negative effects on exports; since the late 1980s, the strong yen has also raised concerns about a de-industrialisation of the Japanese economy. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates the effects of changes to the yen exchange rate on the hollowing out of the Japanese industrial sector. To this end, the paper uses both aggregate and industry-specific data to gauge the effects of yen fluctuations on the output and exports of different Japanese industries, exploiting new data for industry-specific real effective exchange rates. Our findings support the view that the periods of yen appreciation had more than just transitory effects on Japanese manufacturing. The results also provide indication of hysteresis effects on manufacturing. While there are certainly also other factors that have contributed to a hollowing out of Japanese industry, a strong yen played a role, too.
    Keywords: Yen appreciation,exchange rates,Japanese manufacturing,hollowing out,hysteresis
    JEL: F31 O14
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Agnès Festré (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Alain Raybaut (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the conditions of the establishment and functioning of the French colonial Bank of Martinique during the transition period following the decree to abolish slavery in 1848. It is particularly intended to show how the Bank was able to respond to the financial constraints posed by this transition and to deal with the circulation problems that punctuated the period. This study will be conducted in three stages. In the first section, we focus on the establishment and principal operations of the colonial banks in the old French colonies, with particular emphasis on the Bank of Martinique. The second section presents an initial assessment of the operation of the Bank. Finally, the last section is devoted to the circulation problems encountered by the Bank, highlighting the conflicts of interest that underlie the different debates around this issue.
    Keywords: Slavery, Colonial banking, Money circulation
    JEL: B15 N2
    Date: 2018–10
  12. By: Lizette Grobler (Stellenbosch University)
    Abstract: As part of the colonial heritage of Africa, vagrancy laws criminalising idleness and disorderliness still form part of existing legislation. These laws originated in England?s Vagrancy Act of 1824 and remain in the penal codes and by-laws (prohibiting loitering) of former British colonies. Globally, vagrancy laws subsequently became the subject of constitutional scrutiny due to their tendency to typify a specific action or inaction as illegal and to criminalize, as Ocobock notes, the ?personal condition, state of being, and social and economic status? of offenders. With the adoption of The Principles on the Decriminalisation of Petty Offences by the African Commission on Human and Peoples? Rights by the African Commission on Human and Peoples? Rights in November 2017, the reconsideration of vagrancy and loitering has become immanent to African legislators. Vagrancy laws are still entrenched in African penal codes stemming from the colonial era. These laws provide for the arrest of street vendors, beggars, street kids, homeless people, and sex workers. In South Africa, vagrancy legislation was used during the 19th and 20th century but the body of law has been repealed. However, petty offences are still prohibited by by-laws pertaining to issues such as nuisance, noise, street trading and littering in a city. In particular, petty offences may refer to bathing or washing in public; urinating or defecating in public; using abusive or threatening language in public; drunken behaviour; fighting or acting in a riotous manner in public; and drying or spreading laundry in a public place or on a fence on the boundary of a public road. In this paper I will investigate the implications of international law (regional and other international instruments as well as soft law) in terms of the obligations created with specific focus on vagrancy and loitering provisions. These provisions are suspect because of their origin in ideologies aimed at controlling labour and space and do not reflect the commitment of member states to promote and protect human and peoples? rights. In particular, I want to focus on the provisions governing the use of public space.
    Keywords: loitering, vagrancy, International law, human rights, public space, colonial legislation
    JEL: F53 D63 F54
    Date: 2018–07
  13. By: Wallis, Patrick
    Abstract: Guilds made an important contribution to the provision of mutual welfare to their members in the Netherlands and some other parts of Europe, giving their members entitlements to support and assistance during periods of unemployment, sickness or disability. This paper explores the role guilds played in mutual insurance in early modern England. A study of the rules and practices of a range of guilds from London and provincial towns indicates that craft guilds in England had no visible involvement in providing mutual insurance during the sixteenth to the eighteenth centuries. They did, however, provide substantial volumes of charity, much of which was directed to members of the guild who fell into poverty. Mutual insurance emerged on a large scale in England with the Friendly Societies. However, there is no evidence that these Societies had any direct or indirect connection to craft guilds, except in seeking to project a form of conceptual kinship with a medieval fraternal past.
    Keywords: guilds; insurance; friendly societies; charity; London; England; early modern
    JEL: D02 D64 L22 N33 N43
    Date: 2018–10–01
  14. By: Ivo Maes (National Bank of Belgium and Robert Triffin Chair, Université catholique de Louvain and ICHEC Brussels Management School)
    Abstract: Anniversaries are occasions for remembrance and reflections on one’s history. Many central banks take the occasion of an anniversary to publish books on their history. In this essay we discuss five recent books on the history of central banking and monetary policy. In these volumes, the Great Financial Crisis and the way which it obliged central banks to reinvent themselves occupies an important place. Although this was certainly not the first time in the history of central banking, the magnitude of the modern episode is remarkable. As comes clearly to the fore in these volumes, there is now, also in the historiography of central banking, much more attention to the (shifting) balance between price stability and financial stability. The history of central banking is more perceived as one of an institution whose predominant concern varied between “normal” times and “extraordinary” times. So, central banks will have to remain vigilant, as one should expect financial crises to return. Moreover, the new world of central banking, with a greater responsibility of central banks for financial stability, will make life more complicated for central banks. It may have also consequences for central bank independence, as the modalities of the two mandates, price and financial stability, are not the same. Another aspect which comes to the fore in these volumes is the relationship between central banking and state formation. Historically, central banks have been embedded in processes of nation-building. By extending their network of branches across the country, or by being at a center of a system of liquidity provision, ultimately tied to the national currency, they played a key role in the shaping of “national economies”.
    Keywords: central banking, financial stability, price stability, Great Financial Crisis
    JEL: E42 E58 G28 N10
    Date: 2018–10
  15. By: Ivan D. Velasquez
    Abstract: In November 1987, Hyman Minsky visited Bogota, Colombia, after being invited by a group of professors who at that time were interested in post-Keynesian economics. There, Minsky delivered some lectures, and Lauchlin Currie attended two of those lectures at the National University of Colombia. Although Currie is not as well-known as Minsky in the American academy, both are outstanding figures in the development of non-orthodox approaches to monetary economics. Both alumni of the economics Ph.D. program at Harvard had a debate in Bogota. Unfortunately, there are no formal records of this, so here a question arises: What could have been their respective positions? The aim of this paper is to discuss Currie's and Minsky's perspectives on monetary economics and to speculate on what might have been said during their debate.
    Keywords: Lauchlin Currie; Hyman Minsky; Monetary Economics; Monetary Policies; Fiscal Policies
    JEL: B22 B31 B50 E12 E50
    Date: 2018–10
  16. By: Fritz Breuss (WIFO)
    Abstract: From an economic point of view, 100 years of Austria are analysed, and conclusions drawn for the future. The Republic of Austria has not consistently existed for 100 years; she disappeared between 1938 and 1945. In contrast to the view of a historian who chronologically and in great detail describes the events of 100 years of Austria in the First and Second Republic, as an economist I would like to work out only certain patterns. On the one hand, the characteristics of economic development after the two world wars (inflation, unemployment, state budget, monetary policy and the impact on economic growth) are shown. On the other hand, the effects of the various regime changes on the economic sovereignty and thus on the economic development of the state of Austria are discussed. In the First Republic and at the beginning of the Second Republic, there was rather a compulsory surrender of sovereignty (the dictate of the League of Nations, Anschluss, occupation). Then, with the State Treaty and neutrality, full sovereignty followed. Later, as part of the gradual participation in European integration (EFTA, EEA, EU, EMU), Austria voluntarily ceded part of its sovereignty, hoping to get in return a barrier-free access to a larger market. Finally, the benefits of EU membership will be highlighted and the question of whether Austria should move into the future better with or without the EU.
    Keywords: Österreich, Wirtschaftsgeschichte, Europa
    Date: 2018–10–23
  17. By: Mitali, Banerjee (HEC Paris - Strategy & Business Policy); Ingram, Paul L. (Columbia Business School - Management)
    Abstract: We build a social structural model of fame, which departs from the atomistic view of prior literature where creativity is the sole driver of fame in creative markets. We test the model in a significant empirical context: 90 pioneers of the early 20th century (1910–25) abstract art movement. We find that an artist in a brokerage rather than a closure position was likely to become more famous. This effect was not, however, associated with the artist’s creativity, which we measured using both objective computational methods and subjective expert evaluations, and which was not itself related to fame. Rather than creativity, brokerage networks were associated with cosmopolitan identities—broker’s alters were likely to differ more from each other’s nationalities--and this was the key social-structural driver of fame.
    Keywords: fame; creativity; identity; creative markets; social networks; social structure
    JEL: Z11
    Date: 2018–08–01
  18. By: Philip Gunby (University of Canterbury); Stephen Hickson (University of Canterbury)
    Abstract: Simple but neglected concepts such as the velocity of circulation are ideal to open up discussions in macroeconomics classes, in this case about why the demand for money may rise or fall and about the likelihood of a cashless society. First, we review the history of the velocity of circulation. Next, we provide details of a research exercise in an undergraduate macroeconomics course. This exercise includes students searching for data on financial and monetary systems and national accounts. Data sources and links are provided for different countries. We also explain how such an exercise can be used to further Excel skills of students. Finally, we discuss our experiences from this exercise, including student feedback about the exercise from a survey we conducted.
    Keywords: Teaching Macroeconomics, Velocity of Circulation, Cashless Society, Undergraduate Research.
    JEL: A22
    Date: 2018–09–01
  19. By: Liu, Yong; Ker, Alan P.
    Keywords: Research Methods/Econometrics/Stats, Risk and Uncertainty, Food and Agricultural Policy Analysis
    Date: 2018–06–20
  20. By: Florent Pirot (Chercheur indépendant)
    Abstract: Jean de Sismondi is a perfect test case for identifying the tenets of totalitarianism : irrefutability, good reasons to hate scapegoats, to obey the State and let it intervene in markets as defender of the new order. Ludwig von Mises was first to claim that Sismondi was one of the main fathers of Nazi economic thought. His point can be demonstrated by showing the interrelatedness of nationalism and economic thought, as well as racist conceptions of mankind, in Sismondi's thought. Sismondi aimed at developing a military Republic, where a work guarantee for the peasantry through compulsory sharecropping on latifundiary tenancy would be imposed on proprietors, ensuring quick development of future recruits for the Republic's militia (with the argument that sharecropping would increase proprietary gains, hence prefacing fascist demagoguery about « class cooperation »). Sometimes Sismondi openly pressured for colonial expansion for economic purposes, contradicting his own views on Say's Law. He especially campaigned for the conquest of Algiers, mixing economic arguments with a humanistic discussion about the fate of the Arabs under Turkish rule and with piratry issues. Sismondi also contradicted himself on slavery, suggesting in a comment that slaves must work a few years to pay for their freedom, thus acknowledging implicitly owners' economic rights on them. Sismondi was in fact close to Rousseau. Fascism has usually been defined as a nationalistic, pragmatic reconstruction of idealistic Socialism, and this reconstruction can be traced to the Rousseau-Sismondi line, even though they in fact intermerge.
    Keywords: imperialism,romanticism,fascism,state intervention,racism,antisemitism,masculinism,Machiavellism,holism,demand-side economics,Counter-Enlightenment
    Date: 2018–09–06
  21. By: Bell, Peter
    Abstract: This paper demonstrates a simulation method using historical prices for gold over a 40-year period. The simulation method can be used to assess variability in a mine plan. In this example, I use monthly gold data from the Bank of England. The total sample size is approximately 450 monthly data points, from which I consider 11 different continuous subsamples with length 100. Some of these blocks of data are overlap, but they are all different. For each block of data, I preform various calculations for a hypothetical mine plan that produces one ounce of gold per month. I report undiscounted total revenue over the 100-month period with real prices corresponding to different historical episodes and note how gold prices have changed over this 40-year period. I also use monthly price differences from each path to simulate gold price paths all starting with the same initial value, which allows for more apples-apples comparison. I show the Revenue Paths in such cases, report the present value for each path, and include a simple cost model in the mine plan to estimate net present value for each path with standardized initial prices.
    Keywords: Engineering Economics, Mining, Royalties, Finance
    JEL: C0 G0 L72
    Date: 2018–10–08
  22. By: Numtip Smerchuar (Waseda University)
    Abstract: As a major country situated in the middle of mainland Southeast Asia, Thailand has experience in migration movements. In 1977, Thailand began adapting to industrial development. Due to rapid industrialization, Thailand was confronted with an inadequacy of domestic labor, and higher wages meant Thailand became a destination of labors from other countries in the region. In such circumstance Thailand could not come across to reach a concrete policy on foreign workers but what Thailand could do most was to introduce a day by day policy. In other words, without an effective policy on immigration, Thailand has to face many problems that came after. With a help from illegal movement which got benefits from illegal immigrants, Thai policy in this case was still in vain.Historical research on Thailand?s migration policies is limited. However, what there is can explain a specific phenomenon of governmental migration policy. Additionally, the previous studies were highlighted on 1992, which was the beginning of the relaxation of registration of an influx of migrant workers from neighboring countries. The policy is often described as part of the larger migration context, or as outlining the scope of the topic under discussion, but the mechanisms of policymaking, and how those have changed over time, is rarely discussed. This study argues that the role of government as the main agent since the Foreign Employment Act of 1978, and the reasons for change in each transition period, should be explored to explain the Thai government?s handling on this issue during a period of political turbulence and global economic changes. The contents of the paper show how Thailand has confronted its problems, including the state?s perception and the policy mechanisms used to solve those problems. Based on the government documents, the dynamics Thailand?s policies can be concluded as; 1) Thailand has no coherence objectives to handle with migrant workers. 2) Thailand responded the influx of undocumented workers with controlling approach during 1978-2000 and shifted to systematic management approach in 2001 onward, and 3) Thailand?s migration policy perused isolate from national development strategy.
    Keywords: Thailand migration policy, immigration, public policy
    Date: 2018–07
  23. By: Aviral Kumar Tiwari (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France); Juncal Cunado (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain); Abdulnasser Hatemi-J (Department of Finance, UAE University, Al-Ain, UAE); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the oil price-inflation pass-through by studying the relationship between oil prices and U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the period January 1871- June 2018, at different frequencies, using a wavelet coherency analysis. Our main results suggest that the relationship between oil prices and CPI has changed over the analyzed time period, implying a decrease in the oil price- inflation pass-through over time. Furthermore, this relationship also varies across frequencies, suggesting that the evidence of oil price-inflation pass-through with oil prices leading CPI is weaker in the short-run.
    Keywords: Oil prices, Consumer Price Index, Pass-through, Wavelet coherency
    JEL: C49 E31 Q43
    Date: 2018–10
  24. By: Jacopo Timini (Banco de España)
    Abstract: Between its Unification and WWI, Italy faced a period of increasing participation in the international economy. The growth of Italian exports was gradual, and alternately promoted by its intensive and extensive margins. In this paper, using a disaggregated database at country-product level, I first construct the intensive (average export per product) and extensive (number of products) margins of trade (for Italian imports and exports) and, second, within a quasi-gravity model framework, I estimate the drivers of market entry for Italian exports (1862-1913), with particular attention to the presence of eventual sector spillover effects. I find that the presence of “similar” exported products increased the probability of entry in the destination market (export spillovers), even if with diminishing marginal effects, potentially linked to a “saturation”/“congestion” of the market. Equally, I find that the higher the imports’ growth rate for a specific product, the more likely it was to be internationalised by Italian exporters (import spillovers).
    Keywords: international trade, market entry, Italy, trade margins, export spillovers
    JEL: F14 N73
    Date: 2018–10

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