|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2018‒10‒08
fifty papers chosen by |
| By: | Nuno Palma (University of Groningen); Patrick O’Brien (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | "The Bank Restriction Act of 1797 suspended the convertibility of the Bank of England's notes into gold. The current historical consensus is that the suspension was a result of the state's need to finance the war, France’s remonetization, a loss of confidence in the English country banks, and a run on the Bank of England’s reserves following a landing of French troops in Wales. We argue that while these factors help us understand the timing of the Restriction period, they cannot explain its success. We deploy new long-term data which leads us to a complementary explanation: the policy succeeded thanks to the reputation of the Bank of England, achieved through a century of prudential collaboration between the Bank and the Treasury." |
| Keywords: | "Bank of England, financial revolution, fiat money, money supply, monetary policy commitment, reputation, and time-consistency, regime shift, financial sector growth" |
| JEL: | N13 N23 N43 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17001&r=his |
| By: | Jonas Ljungberg (Lund University); Anders Ögren (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | "It is well known that a country by manipulating the value of its currency can push up its competitiveness in international markets. This notwithstanding, it is much overlooked how exchange rates have influenced economic growth and convergence of income among nations in a longer perspective. In particular, among countries involved in market integration, one could presume that those on a lower level of income should have a higher inflation. The higher inflation, with a concomitant rise of wages, should then erode their competitiveness and counteract convergence. A somehow flexible exchange rate might compensate for this loss and contribute to the catch-up of countries still behind. The theoretical point of departure in this paper is that countries with lower levels of income have also lower levels of prices and wages than richer countries. When poorer countries catch-up with the richer, they necessarily have higher inflation and wage growth. Unless these asymmetries in prices and wages are compensated for by nominal exchange rates, the poorer countries will decline in relative competitiveness. Since we deal with trends over longer periods and not temporary shocks, it is not necessary to determine when a currency is undervalued or overvalued. Instead, the focus can be on the relative change of exchange rates and their long term effects. The paper examines how exchange rate movements have interacted with economic growth and price changes across European countries since 1870. In that purpose, we look at how exchange rates have exposed countries to each other through foreign trade. The contribution of the paper is that effective exchange rates are brought into a long-term analysis of (mostly west-) European growth and convergence. The next section of the paper shortly reviews the treatment of exchange rates and growth in the literature. Section three introduces the history of exchange rates across seventeen European countries, and how the effective exchange rates are estimated. Section four explores the pattern of long-term convergence and divergence of GDP per capita in Western Europe. Section five discusses the interaction between growth, prices, and exchange rates over 1870-2010 divided in five different sub-periods. Section six concludes with a discussion of further implications." |
| Keywords: | "exchange rates, economic growth, convergence, Europe" |
| JEL: | E43 E58 E65 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17022&r=his |
| By: | John Singleton (Sheffield Hallam University) |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18012&r=his |
| By: | Cristián Ducoing (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | "The debate on industrial revolution (IR) has been focused on the incentives behind investment deci- sions and how the preliminary conditions to allow this phenomena were situated in England. One of the most famous and original theories to explain IR is the developed by (Allen, 2012, 2009b,a), who taking into account a vast literature on organic fuels and the transition to fossil fuels (WRIGLEY, 1962; Wrigley, 2013), argues that the reason why IR was British is the unique combination of expensive labour and cheap en- ergy. This combination produces the incentives to invest in labour saving machinery. Several works have proved the existence of cheap fossil fuels during the XIX century, determined by the introduction of coal. Figures and indicators on wages and energy are broadly accepted, however, machinery price indexes are at least discussed and the elaboration of the most used index is based almost completely in the iron price (Feinstein (1972, 1988). To prove the Allen hypothesis we require a better index on machinery, measur- ing horsepower prices, relative costs and changes in their international trade. Using novel data based on merchants catalogues, several international trade statistics plus all the price indexes available, this article presents a improved machinery price index for UK in the period 1850 - 1913; given the influence of British Machinery & Equipment in the world market until 1913, this price index could be useful to understand relative costs transformation in several regions." |
| Keywords: | "Machinery prices, Industrial Revolution, Technological change." |
| JEL: | N13 N63 N70 O13 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18016&r=his |
| By: | Kilian Rieder (University of Oxford); Michael Anson (Bank of England); David Bholat (Bank of England); Miao Kang (Bank of England); Ryland Thomas (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | "It is well-known that quantitative credit restrictions, rather than Bagehot-style “free lending” con- stituted the standard response to financial crises in the early days of central banking. But why did central banks in the past frequently restrict the supply of loans during financial crises? In this paper, we draw on a large novel, hand-collected loan-level data set to study the Bank of England’s policy response to the crisis of 1847. We find that credit rationing due to residual imperfect informa- tion `a la Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) alone cannot be a convincing explanation for quantitative credit restrictions during the crisis of 1847. We provide preliminary evidence which could suggest that discriminatory credit rationing on the basis of loan applicants’ type and identity characterized the BoE’s response to the crisis of 1847. Our results also show that “collateral” characteristics played an important role in the BoE’s loan decisions, even after one controls for the identity of loan applicants. This finding confirms the hypothesis in Capie (2002) and Flandreau and Ugolini (2011, 2013, 2014) that the characteristics of bills of exchange submitted to the discount window mattered. Since our results suggest that the Bank also took decisions on the basis of the identity of loan applicants, our preliminary findings would seem to challenge Capie’s “frosted glass” metaphor, but more work is required to confirm these conjectures." |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G01 G21 N10 N13 N20 N23 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18020&r=his |
| By: | Guido Alfani (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | "This article provides an overview of long-term changes in the relative conditions of the rich in preindustrial Europe. It covers four pre-unification Italian states (Sabaudian State, Florentine State, Kingdom of Naples and Republic of Venice) as well as other areas of Europe (Low Countries, Catalonia) during the period 1300-1800. Three different kinds of indicators are measured systematically and combined in the analysis: headcount indexes, the share of the top rich, and richness indexes. Taken together, they suggest that overall, during the entirety of the early modern period the rich tended to become both more prevalent and more distanced from the other strata of society. The only period during which the opposite process took place was the late Middle Ages, following the Black Death epidemic of the mid-fourteenth century. In the period from ca. 1300 to 1800, the prevalence of the rich doubled. In the Sabaudian State, the Florentine State and the Kingdom of Naples, for which reconstructions of regional wealth distributions exist, in about the same period the share of the top 10% grew from 45-55% to 70-80% - reaching almost exactly the same level which has recently been suggested as the European average at 1810. Consequently, the time series presented here might be used to add about five centuries of wealth inequality trends to current debates on very long-term changes in the relative position of the rich." |
| Keywords: | Economic inequality; wealth concentration; richness; top wealthy; middle ages; early modern period; Italy; Low Countries; Catalonia; Black Death; property structures |
| JEL: | N30 N33 N93 D31 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17020&r=his |
| By: | Alexandros Apostolides (European University Cyprus); Michalis Zaouras (University of Groningen); Alexis Antoniou (Boğaziçi University) |
| Abstract: | "In our effort to understand the underlying parameters creating conflict, we introduce the 1931 Cyprus riots and construct a novel data set. We explore two under-researched issues that have wider ramifi- cations: the effectiveness of policing as deterrence and the provocation effect of policing in its role in aggravating feelings against a foreign ruler. We find that nationalism and inequality are the two most important determinants in these riots, while the presence of police acted as a catalyst for riots. In contrast to the theoretical findings on the importance of police deterrence effect, we find that little did it matter. These indicate that nationalistic fervour, combined with deteriorating economic envi- ronment and the unsympathetic sentiments towards the establishment, aggravated by the presence of police (referred as provocation-effect), are elements that contributed to an explosive environment." |
| Keywords: | "Civil Conflict, Nationalism, Economic Inequality, Policing, Cyprus, British Colonialism" |
| JEL: | D74 N44 P48 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17018&r=his |
| By: | Kerstin Enflo (Lund University); Tobias Karlsson (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | "Institutions for prevention and resolution of labor market conflicts were introduced all over the world in the early twentieth century. We analyze the first 20 years of mediation in the Swedish labor market. The Swedish mediators were personally appointed, enjoyed high levels of social prestige, and were responsible for conflict prevention and resolution within geographical districts. Despite limited authority and access to economic resources, we estimate that the presence of mediation in a conflict resulted in about 30 per cent higher probability of a compromise outcome. Mediation was more likely to work as intended in settings where conflicting parties recognize each other and struggle over a prize that can be divided. By constructing a geocoded panel dataset consisting of all reported work stoppages in Sweden 1903-27, we aim to disentangle the causal effect of mediation at the local level. Our results suggest that mediation could have paved the way for a cooperative atmosphere in the local labour market. At the national level such an atmosphere was clearly manifested in the General Agreement in 1938 and with the rise of the Swedish Model." |
| Keywords: | "conflicts, strikes, mediation, Sweden, hawk-dove game" |
| JEL: | J52 N33 N34 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17017&r=his |
| By: | David Higgins (Newcastle University); David Clayton (University of York) |
| Abstract: | "There has been a substantial debate on the causes of Britain’s poor economic performance after 1945. Weaknesses in government policy, particularly with respect to supply-side improvements, have featured prominently in explanations for this decline. Broadberry and Crafts, for example, have argued that successive governments in the post-war period accepted a social contract with trade unions to maintain high levels of employment but the adverse consequences of this were that it increased the bargaining power of trade unions, lowered the costs to firms of accepting restrictive practices and generally encouraged high levels of ‘X’ inefficiency, especially over-manning and low effort. A corollary of this was the growth of employment in the public sector, which Thirlwall claimed led to a Balance of Payments constraint: the expansion of the non-market sector was a symptom of the inability of the market sector to grow as fast as productivity growth without the economy coming up against a Balance of Payments Constraint. This constraint operated because Britain’s income elasticity of demand for imports was 1.6 per cent, whereas world income demand for UK exports was 1 per cent. Between 1965-74 for example, industrial productivity in the UK grew at 4%p.a while output increased by only 1.7%. Thirlwall argued that the industrial sector could not have grown at 4% and thereby have retained more of its resources because of the consequences such an expansion would have had on the Balance of Payments. A 4% rate of growth of national output would mean that imports would have increased at 6.4% pa but exports at only 4% This, of course, was not sustainable. In this article we do not intend to revisit these debates. Rather, we examine an aspect of demand management policy which has been largely neglected: ‘Buy British’ campaigns in the mid 1960s and early 1980s. In theory, an aggressive marketing policy by government, extolling the virtues of British-made products, could have alleviated the Balance of Payments constraint. Moreover, such a policy could have prompted a supply-side response from British manufacturers. For example, an advertising campaign which reinforced consumer preferences for British products would have provided some insulation from foreign competition and this would have facilitated investment and innovation. Despite the potential appeal of these benefits we argue that there were a number of major impediments to ‘Buy British’ campaigns. It is useful to divide our analysis into two distinct subperiods: the 1960s, when Britain did not belong to the EU, and the 1980s, when it did. For both periods, British governments were hesitant to endorse a full-scale marketing campaign. Part of the explanation for this was surveys indicated that British consumers at best had only limited preference for domestic manufactures. A further problem was that successive British governments were at best reluctant and at worst hostile to launching a BB campaign. Nonetheless, there were also more mundane reasons for reluctance to become engaged. For example, which non-governmental bodies should be asked to participate? The CBI, for example, did not countenance involvement in the 1960s, but was more collaborative in the 1980s." |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17007&r=his |
| By: | Marianna Astore (Bocconi University); Michele Fratianni (Indiana University) |
| Abstract: | "The paper deals with Italian inter-war debts, against the background of the very contentious international issue of war reparations that many Allied nations wanted to link to war debt repayments. While the bulk of the literature looks at the Lausanne conference of 1932 as an act of forgiveness of war debts, we show that Italy, having first achieved an extremely large haircut by restructuring US and UK debts in 1925-26, defaulted after Lausanne. We also present a new times series on Italian foreign debt from 1925 to 1934, a series that is consistent with the unfolding of relevant historical events." |
| Keywords: | "Italy, foreign debt, debt restructuring, default" |
| JEL: | H63 N44 N94 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18021&r=his |
| By: | Miquel Gutiérrez-Poch (University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | "British industrial and economic pre-eminence during Industrial Revolution was over, at least partially, in the late nineteenth century. The reasons of this, often called controversially British climacteric, underlined in the literature are many. Mokyr has pointed out that the United Kingdom was defined by a highly skilled stock of human capital which was able to translate ideas from home or abroad (the papermaking case) to innovations that could have commercial use. These “Glorious Times”, the United Kingdom was world’s leader in technological matters. The falling behind process from late nineteenth century has a complex explanation with multiple factors to be accounted (economic and business structure of the British economy, markets, education, etc.) and it has been the origin of a controversy. Literature underlines the British technological lead at least up to the 1860s. Kison and Michie have called the period between 1870 and 1913 as “the age of maturity” and “the age of uncertainty” that between wars. Tom Nicholas has underlined how some factors were inevitable, such as the characteristics of the advancing countries with larger markets, but other are directly linked with structural factors “such as the lack of competition in product markets and the relative absence of creative destruction as disciplinary mechanisms to promote the efficiency of firms”. British papermaking engineering was the main supplier of machines in the World markets during an important part of the nineteenth century. Besides that, the domestic market was really huge and in continuous expansion for decades, mainly linked with more standardized types of paper (newsprint). British workshops began to lose ground in the late nineteenth century. Global markets were increasingly supplied by US and German works. The main reasons of that were the stagnation of the British papermaking industry. Lost the domestic market dynamism, the exports fell down, but not completely. From this point of view, papermaking engineering is a good example of the British industrial decline. However, this scenario fits with the explanation by Saul, according to whom the British engineering industry had a performance which cannot be described as a poor as a whole" |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17004&r=his |
| By: | Tim Barmby (Newcastle University) |
| Abstract: | "This paper considers the organisation of labour in the Cornish Tin mining industry in the 19 uses primary records of labour bargains made at Wheal Hearle mine near St Just in the early 1860s. One of the main points of interest is that these bargains were allocated by auction on a monthly basis. The work was of two types, “tutwork” and “tribute”, tutwork was work involved in digging levels, shafts etc within the mine whereas tribute was the payment for the raising of ore. Tutwork would usually be a rate per fathom dug, Tribute a sort of revenue share, were the group of miners would get so many shillings in the pound (value) of the tin ore. The paper will examine the relative variability of pay for the two types of work and the extent to which miners would switch between the two types of work. The paper will also consider further implications of these arrangements, using data to examine the extent to which miners were able to use knowledge (of geology) to make good decisions on which bargains to bid for. It will do this by examining the structure of the distribution of earnings, and the extent to which groups of miners were able to earn persistently above the mean." |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18009&r=his |
| By: | Acheson, Graeme G.; Campbell, Gareth; Gallagher, Áine; Turner, John D. |
| Abstract: | The early twentieth century saw an increasingly vocal movement which campaigned for women to be able to exercise their political voices independently of men. This coincided with more women participating directly in the stock market. In this paper we analyse whether these female shareholders acted independently of men. We reject the hypothesis that they were heavily influenced by male associates. Using a novel dataset of 500,000 shareholders in some of the largest British railways, we find that women were much more likely to be solo shareholders than men. There is also evidence that they prioritised their independence above other considerations such as where they invested or how diversified they could be. However, we find that they were deliberately excluded from being eligible for election to boards of directors. |
| Keywords: | Gender,Investment,Stock Market,Railways |
| JEL: | G10 J16 N23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201809&r=his |
| By: | Hanhui Guan (Peking University); Jie Mao (University of International Business & Economics China) |
| Abstract: | "The Yuan was the first dynasty both in Chinese and world history to use paper money as its sole medium of circulation, and also established the earliest silver standard. This paper explores the impact of paper money in Yuan China. We find that: (1) At the beginning of its regime, due to the strict constraints of the silver standard on money issuances, the value of paper money was stable. (2) Since the middle stage of the dynasty, the central government had to finance fiscal deficits by issuing more paper money, and inflation was thus unavoidable. Our empirical results also demonstrate that fiscal pressure from multiple provincial rebellions was the most important factor driving the government to issue more paper money; however, the emperor’s largesse, which had been viewed as another source of fiscal deficits by most traditional historians, had no significant effect on the over-issuance of paper money. (3) When the monetary standard switched from silver to paper money, the impact of fiscal deficits, which were driving more paper money issuances, became much more severe. Based on these findings, we argue that the experience of Yuan China verified that metal standards could serve as a discipline on paper money over-issuances. This episode in Yuan China predates the money over-issuances observed during the era of the classic gold standard found in western countries by six centuries." |
| Keywords: | "silver standard, money over-issuance, paper money, convertibility, Yuan China" |
| JEL: | E42 N15 N45 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18013&r=his |
| By: | Munir, Kamal; Naqvi, Natalya |
| Abstract: | Despite theoretical justifications and empirical evidence that state-owned enterprises have played an important role in late development, as well as over three decades of evidence that privatization programmes since the 1980s have had mixed results at best, international financial institutions continue prescribing privatization as a panacea for developing countries. Pakistan is an interesting case to understand why privatization is still considered desirable, because it is one of a set of developing countries that have whole-heartedly implemented Washington Consensus policies. In this context, we analyse privatization in two key economic sectors in Pakistan: energy and banking. Using qualitative and quantitative data, we describe the motivations behind these privatizations, the process by which they were carried out, and analyse the post-privatization performance of these organizations and sectors. We find that in both cases (a) the privatizations failed not only with respect to their stated aims, leading to a decline in national productive capabilities, but also had adverse distributional consequences, shifting the rewards to the buyers while the risks and costs remained with the public sector, and (b) the suboptimal outcomes of the privatizations went largely unchallenged aided by a prevalent neoliberal view amongst the country's economic policy makers and intelligentsia. Our analysis sheds new light on the process by which privatization in the absence of a state with the capacity to discipline business interests has enabled these interests to obtain state-sponsored rents without bringing any of the associated benefits for economic development. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:90250&r=his |
| By: | Hueth, Brent M.; Hutchins, Jared; Hutchins, Jared |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis and Emerging Technologies, Ag Finance and Farm Management, Rural/Community Development |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:274384&r=his |
| By: | Frances Richardson (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | "By the 1830s, parishes in north-west Wales had developed a low-cost system of poor relief that suited the area’s largely informal economy. Poor relief was mainly used to top up the inadequate earnings of the elderly, single women adversely affected by declining proto-industrial earnings, and agricultural labourers with large families, while non-resident relief was widely paid to encourage migration. These practices were challenged by the 1834 Poor Law Amendment Act, which sought to draw a clear distinction between the able-bodied and the aged and infirm, and to curtail poor relief for able-bodied men except through a workhouse. Previous research has revealed considerable regional and local variation in the way the New Poor Law was implemented in England. However the detailed deconstruction of outdoor relief practice remains relatively rare and the impact of the Act in Wales has been little studied. This paper examines the impact of the New Poor Law on the livelihoods of the poor in north Wales through a case study of the Llanrwst Poor Law Union. It analyses over 1,400 poor relief cases in the union’s first year of operation to build up a picture of the ages, occupations and family situation of paupers, and how relief practice changed after the implementation of the New Poor Law. Three key factors are identified in shaping outcomes: whether elected union guardians saw the New Poor Law aims as cost-effective and relevant to local needs; the ability of the area’s Assistant Poor Law Commissioner to convince the board of the legal requirement for change; and the increased agency of the poor themselves." |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17010&r=his |
| By: | Ali, Amjad; Zulfiqar, Kalsoom |
| Abstract: | Mostly, economists believe that due to non-existence of agglomeration economies, there are less chances of employment spatial distribution in an economy. Following the strands of previous literature about agglomeration special impacts, this study has uplifted the curtain from some interesting realities. This study has examined the association between unemployment and natural resources agglomeration in Pakistan from 1980 to 2016. For measuring natural resources agglomeration, an index has been constructed based on coal production, oil production, forest area and agricultural land as a percentage of total land area. The study utilized autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method of co-integration. The results show that natural resources agglomeration, secondary school enrollment, foreign direct investment and inflation have a negative and significant impact on unemployment in Pakistan. The results reveal that population is putting a positive impact on unemployment in Pakistan. The study finds that natural resources agglomeration is an important factor for reducing unemployment in Pakistan. There are some other factors for agglomeration economies, i.e. Local economic policies, natural resources availability and amount of manpower for employment spatial distribution in Pakistan. So, efforts are needed to mega scale for exploration, proper usage and the functioning of natural resources in Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, natural resources, inflation, foreign direct investment |
| JEL: | E24 N50 P24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89022&r=his |
| By: | Erik Bengtsson (Lund University); Patrick Svensson (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | "Pre-industrial Sweden is famous for its self-owning and independent peasant farmer class and the peasant farmers have often been considered as carriers of equality and a particular brand of Scandinavian road to modernity. Moreover, it has been argued that rising income and wealth within this large segment of the population resulted in increased demand for non-agrarian products and thus that this provided the start of a domestic industrial expansion. However, quantitative studies of the wealth and inequality of Swedish farmers have been limited to studies on smaller localities. This paper contributes with the first comprehensive study of the wealth of the Swedish farmers, using a national sample of almost 5 000 probate inventories for the benchmark years 1750, 1800, 1850 and 1900, of which about 1 730 inventories are for farmers. The paper maps the farmers’ wealth positions in relation to other social groups as well as the wealth stratification within the farmer class. We show that in 1750 and 1800 Swedish farmers were relatively equal, comparable to for example free farmers in the US North, but that inequality increased gradually and that in 1900 the Gini coefficient for the farmer class has risen to 0.74, as compared to 0.46 in 1750. The equality – at least in economic terms – of Swedish farmers has thus been overstated. Importantly though, average wealth increased within the group although also here regional differences, arising from differences in soil quality as well as transportation and proximity to urban markets, are discernible." |
| Keywords: | "inequality, wealth, Sweden, peasant farmers, rural society" |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17019&r=his |
| By: | Katz, Ori |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of railroads in the United States between 1850 and 1910 on economic development, fertility, and human capital. A novel identification strategy, which relies on a dynamic instrument, allows me to control for unobservables using county fixed effects. I find that railroads shifted the distribution of occupations and industries, had a large positive effect on human capital levels, and a large negative effect on fertility rates. Further analysis suggests that the impact of railroads was larger in counties that were initially more developed. I examine possible mechanisms that drive the effects and lead to this heterogeneity. |
| Keywords: | Railroads, Fertility, Human Capital, Industrialization, Development, Transportation, Economic Growth, Great Divergence, Demographic Transition |
| JEL: | J11 N11 N71 O1 O14 O18 |
| Date: | 2018–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88869&r=his |
| By: | Kentaro Saito (Kyoto Sangyo University) |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18004&r=his |
| By: | Turvey, Calum G.; Ifft, Jennifer E.; Carduner, Amy |
| Keywords: | Ag Finance and Farm Management, Food and Agricultural Policy Analysis, Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2018–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea18:274120&r=his |
| By: | Thomas Wright; Gabriel Zucman |
| Abstract: | We estimate and attempt to explain the evolution of the taxes paid by U.S. multinationals on their foreign profits since 1966. In the oil sector, taxes paid to oil-producing States have been contained, allowing U.S. firms to earn high after-tax returns. Foreign taxes fell abruptly after the first Gulf War. In sectors other than oil, the effective foreign tax rate has fallen by half since the late 1990s. Almost half of this decline owes to the rise of profit shifting to tax havens. The low foreign taxes paid by U.S. multinationals can explain half of the U.S. cross-border return differential. |
| JEL: | H26 N52 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24983&r=his |
| By: | Walker Hanlon (NYU Stern School of Business) |
| Abstract: | "This study provides new evidence on the impact of air pollution in London over the century from 1866-1965. To identify weeks with elevated pollution levels I use new data tracking the timing of London’s famous fog events, which trapped emissions in the city. These events are compared to detailed new weekly mortality data. My results show that acute pollution exposure due to fog events accounted for at least one out of every 200 deaths in London during this century. I provide evidence that the presence of infectious diseases of the respiratory system, such as measles and tuberculosis, increased the mortality effects of pollution. As a result, success in reducing the infectious diseases burden in London in the 20th century reduced the impact of pollution exposure and shifted the distribution of pollution effects across age groups." |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18019&r=his |
| By: | Noel Johnson (George Mason University); Mark Koyama (George Mason University); Remi Jebwab (George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | "In this paper we study the Black Death persecutions (1347-1352) against Jews inorder to shed light on the factors determining when a minority group will face perse-cution. We develop a theoretical framework which predicts that negative shocks in-crease the likelihood that minorities are scapegoated and persecuted. By contrast, as theshocks become more severe, persecution probability may actually decrease if there areeconomic complementarities between the majority and minority groups. We compilecity-level data on Black Death mortality and Jewish persecution. At an aggregate levelwe find that scapegoating led to an increase in the baseline probability of a persecution.However, at the city-level, locations which experienced higher plague mortality rateswere less likely to engage in persecutions. Furthermore, persecutions were more likelyin cities with a history of antisemitism (consistent with scapegoating) and less likelyin cities where Jews played an important economic role (consistent with inter-groupcomplementarities)." |
| Keywords: | Ethnic Conflict; Religious Conflict; Minorities; Persecutions; Massacres;Libels; Black Death; Jewish Economic History; Middle Ages; Epidemics; Cities; Trade |
| JEL: | J15 D74 Z12 N33 N43 O1 R1 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17012&r=his |
| By: | John Murray (Rhodes College); Javier Silvestre (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | "The Great Divergence debate emphasized the “geographic good luck” of European proximity to coal deposits. We consider the role, not of luck, but of the development and diffusion of coal production technology. Mechanical ventilation began as a response to methane risks in Belgian mines and soon spread to the Ruhr valley, Great Britain and Pennsylvania, all places considered in this paper. Engineers tested different machines and publicized the results, which were translated in the mining press elsewhere. Property rights to innovation proved flexible when necessary. Mechanical mine ventilation exemplified the best of Western industrial science: inquisitive, open, flexible, and responsive to empirical results whether good or bad. It was not luck but the Western approach to new technology that enabled coal exploitation." |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18011&r=his |
| By: | Tomàs Fernández-de-Sevilla (Free University of Brussels); Armando J Dalla Costa (Federal University of Paraná) |
| Abstract: | "The bulk of the automotive-industry in Brazil, country which is ranked in the top-ten of world cars producer since the mid-1960s, has been concentrated around the city of São Paulo. We aim to explain the formation and growth of the São Paulo auto-industry cluster. In doing so, four explanations are used: the presence of external economies (Marshall, 1890; Porter, 1990); the capabilities of large companies, which act as regional hubs (Chandler, 1990; Markusen, 1996; Lazonick, 2010); the adoption of active industrial policies (Amsden, 1989, 2001; Chang, 2002); and the institutional environment (Bagnasco, 1977; Brusco, 1982; Becattini, 1990; Porter, 1998)." |
| Keywords: | Industrial Districts and Clusters; Automotive Industry; External Economies; Large Companies; Active Industrial Policy; Institutions |
| JEL: | O14 O25 N66 N96 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17014&r=his |
| By: | Kesternich, Iris; Siflinger, Bettina (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Smith, James P.; Steckenleiter, Carina |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses long-term effects of highly unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II on fertility outcomes over the life cycle. By using Census data linked with individual biography data, we find that a permanent reduction in the number of men delayed women’s first birth. However, the effects crucially depend on at what age fertility of women is evaluated. While women with low sex ratios have fewer children at younger ages, they compensate at later ages. We also find substitution from the extensive towards the intensive margin. Mechanisms are marrying later, accepting lower quality matches and expanding the child-bearing period. |
| Keywords: | sex ratio; fertility; marriage; life cycle; World War II |
| JEL: | J10 J2 J13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:477a3d49-f1af-45e9-a0e3-69d096522c3a&r=his |
| By: | Luis Zegarra (Católica Graduate Business School) |
| Abstract: | "This article examines the credit market of Lima, Peru, in 1825-65 and analyzes the effects of information asymmetries on the allocation of credit. Family loans were associated with lower interest rates due to differences in information costs. However, private lenders did not allocate a large portion of loans to their relatives. As the elite was largely known, lenders partly coped with information asymmetries by lending to the elite. Specialists on lending also rose in response to market imperfections. By economizing on screening and monitoring, specialists partly coped with information asymmetries. The evidence also suggests that notaries served as intermediaries and reduced information costs. Nevertheless, private lenders did not fully cope with information asymmetries: high information costs severely restricted interregional lending." |
| Keywords: | "Information asymmetries, credit, Latin America, Peru" |
| JEL: | G21 N26 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18018&r=his |
| By: | Robin McCallum (Queen’s University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | "As the Crown pursued an expansionist foreign policy in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, so its traditional sources of income were unable to meet the costs of its wars. The three Edwards thus resorted to borrowing money from native and alien creditors to finance the defence of the kingdom. When the Italian banks collapsed in the 1340s, Edward III turned to his subjects for state loans to fund the Hundred Years War. These loans were a substitute form of parliamentary taxation, which the Crown requested from its subjects when the realm was under attack. By basing its pleas on necessitas, the Crown imposed an obligation upon the subject to meet the royal request. State loans were advanced with the subject’s full consent; of a value in accordance to their standing in society; and interest-free. This paper traces the origins of state loans from the clergy; explores when and why they became a regular demand; how they were negotiated and repaid; and reveals the identities of the Crown’s main ecclesiastical creditors. In financial terms, state loans were a minor source of Crown revenue. Their combined value equated to around 10% of the total royal expenditure on the defence of the kingdom during the reign of Edward III, and even less under his father. When viewed in isolation, the clergy lent around £50,000 between 1307 and 1377, a sum equivalent to 1-2% of the total costs of the military campaigns. But to judge clerical loans simply in terms of their negligible monetary value fundamentally misinterprets their significance, which can be measured by their impact on the political relationship between the Crown and the clergy. State loans afforded ecclesiastics the opportunity of wielding greater political influence; acquiring new charters; resolving grievances; and protecting the interests of their abbey. For many ecclesiastics, the short-term financial risks associated with lending were substantially outweighed by these potential rewards." |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18017&r=his |
| By: | Frank Tough (University of Alberta) |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18006&r=his |
| By: | Alexander Donges (University of Mannheim); Jean Marie Meier (University of Texas at Dallas); Rui Silva (London Business School) |
| Abstract: | "We study the impact of inclusive institutions on innovation using novel, hand- collected, county-level data for Imperial Germany. We use the timing and geography of the French occupation of different German regions after the French Revolution as an instrument for institutional quality. We find that the number of patents per capita was more than twice as high in counties with the longest occupation as in unoccupied counties. The impact of institutions on innovation is amplified in counties with a devel- oped banking sector, suggesting that financial development and inclusive institutions are complements in the production of innovation." |
| Keywords: | "Innovation, Patents, Institutions, Institutional Reform, Economic Growth" |
| JEL: | G38 O31 O43 N13 K40 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17023&r=his |
| By: | Patrik Winton (Uppsala University); Peter Ericsson (Uppsala University) |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18014&r=his |
| By: | Laura Maravall Buckwalter (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | "By the end of the 19th century, the Algerian railway network played a crucial role as an instrument for settlement expansion and colonial control. A growing amount of research shows that railway expansion at this time allowed previously marginalized regions to participate in international trade and thereby boosting growth. Yet few studies point out that it also increased marginalization and reinforced dual economies in areas that did not experience access to the infrastructure or that did not have the required economies to profit from and engage in international markets. This paper looks into the effect of gaining railroad access on the indigenous and settler population density in French Algeria during this period. By taking advantage of unique territorial population data at a sub-municipal level and digitized historical colonization maps in the Constantine region, it measures the effect of gaining railway access in relatively isolated areas – areas in which the infrastructure arrived later – using a differences- in-differences methodology. Results show that the indigenous population responded positively to railroad infrastructure only in those regions where settlers were already located while the settler density did not respond to the infrastructure. To provide an explanation, it then analyzes freight and passenger transport at a more detailed level. In line with literature on Algerian railways, the results suggest that the potential gains were restricted by tariffs, which mirrored Constantine’s difficulty to engage in scale economies due to geographical restrictions, such as the limited fertile land and the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate." |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18008&r=his |
| By: | Karolina Hutkova (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | "In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries Bengal was, with over 40% share on total imports, quantitatively the most important exporter of raw silk into Britain. The English East India Company (EEIC) played an important role in Bengal’s dominance. During the period of 1760s-1830s the Company developed a value chain in raw silk manufacturing and integrated cocoon procurement, reeling, warehousing, transport, advertising and the organisation of sale among its business activities. The EEIC relied on economies of scale which gave it an advantage. Moreover, thanks to learning-by-doing the Company also developed an expertise in silk manufacturing. This expertise built on the adoption of ‘best practices’, on acquiring new knowledge through sending silk experts to Bengal, and on granting patents for innovations of silk technologies. The Company offered its knowledge and services such as warehousing, transportation, marketing, sales and guidance about new technologies, innovations and best practices also to private entrepreneurs. When the 1833 EEIC Charter forced the Company to withdraw from raw silk manufacturing, the sector lost entrepreneurial guidance. In comparison to the EEIC, private entrepreneurs had little access to specialised knowledge and skills, and could not take advantage of economies of scale. In the post-1833 period innovative activities were not successful, no major innovation was adopted and the share of Bengal raw silk on the total imports of raw silk to Britain decreased to around 13%. " |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17003&r=his |
| By: | Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen |
| Abstract: | The world’s first geographical indications (GIs) were in the wine sector and focused on the delineation of the location of production, the ‘terroir’: the Burgundy wines in the fifteenth century, the Port wines and Chianti wines in the eighteenth century, and the Champagne wines in the early twentieth century. We analyze the causes for the introduction of these GIs (‘terroirs’) and for changes in their delineation (expansion) later on. Our analysis shows that trade played a very important role in the creation of the ‘terroirs’ but not always through the same mechanisms. For the Port and Chianti GIs it was exports to Britain that were crucial; for Burgundy it was domestic trade to Paris; and for the Champagne GI it was not exports but pressure from wine imports and new wine regions that played a crucial role. For the expansions of the GIs later in history, other factors seem to have been equally important. Expansions of the GIs in the years and centuries after their introduction followed major changes in political power; the spread of a new philosophy in liberal and free markets across Europe; and infrastructure investments which opened up markets and made exports cheaper from “new” producers. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:40018&r=his |
| By: | Nao Sudo (Bank of Japan); Masaki Tanaka (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | While major central banks confronting the global financial crisis conducted government bond purchases on an unprecedented scale, macroeconomists began re-examining carefully the once-accepted wisdom that long-term government bond purchases by the central bank reduce long-term yields. This paper follows this shift in economic thought and examines if the wisdom holds in Japan by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features imperfect substitutability of bonds with different maturities, due to market segmentation and preferred habitats, using Japan's data from the 1980s to 2017. We focus specifically on the transmission mechanism, to determine which matters most: the size of the bond purchases at each period (flow effects), or the total amount of bonds taken away from the private sectors (stock effects). We find that, (i) Japan's data accords well with market segmentation and preferred habitat theories, which implies that government bond purchases conducted by the Bank of Japan have compressed the term premium, exerting an expansionary effect on economic activity and prices; (ii) the effect of bond purchases has been most pronounced since Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing was introduced, compressing the term premium about 50 to 100 basis points as of the end of 2017; and (iii) the compression of the term premium has been mainly driven by stock effects, which underscores the importance of the amount outstanding of the Bank's government bond holdings in determining the term premium. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Term Premium; DSGE Model |
| JEL: | C54 E43 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2018–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp18e16&r=his |
| By: | Vassilis Sarantides (University of Sheffield); Pantelis Kammas (University of Ioannina) |
| Abstract: | "This paper focuses mainly on the effects of democratisation on the size and the composition of tax revenues in Greece during the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries. Our analysis builds on a unique tax dataset that contains 13 different tax categories of the Greek state over the period 1833-1933. Empirical analysis suggests that the radical reform that enfranchised all adult males in Greece in 1864 did not affect the level of taxation, but did exert a significant impact on its structure. More precisely, universal male suffrage was accompanied by an amazing reduction in rural taxes (e.g., taxes on land) and remarkable increases in indirect taxes – mostly in custom and excises duties. These findings clearly indicate that there were political economy motives behind this shift in the implemented fiscal policy. In particular, the Greek governments changed the structure of taxation in order to satisfy the large majority of the electorate, who were peasants and farmers, ensuring a minimum level of social cohesion. Subsequently, focusing on a sample of 12 Western European countries over the same period, findings indicate that the phase of economic development induced a differentiated effect of democratisation on the size and the structure of taxation." |
| Keywords: | "democracy, tax structure, fiscal capacity" |
| JEL: | P16 H2 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17008&r=his |
| By: | Auke Rijpma (Utrecht University); Eltko Buringh (Utrecht University); Jan Luiten van Zanden (Utrecht University); Bruce Campbell (Queen’s University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | "This paper presents new data on the construction history of about 1,100 major churches in Western Europe between 700 and 1500 CE. The idea is that church building can be seen as an index of economic activity, reflecting confidence in the future, command of substantial ecclesiastical revenues, mobilisation of large teams of construction workers, and an ability to assemble impressive quantities of building materials at a single site, with the wider economic multiplier effects that this entailed. In a pious age, Church reform, monastic foundation and advancing architectural technology helped kick-start and then lend momentum to the process. Whether so much conspicuous construction activity was beneficial to or a burden upon Christendom’s relatively poor and under-developed economy can be debated. What is clear is that churches, like the books and manuscripts produced in the same period, are artefacts that can be quantified. Whereas hard data are lacking for many other aspects of economic activity, at least before 1250, research by generations of architectural historians means that much is known about the construction history of individual churches, commencing with their original foundation. Putting this information together provides estimates of the ecclesiastical building industry for a number of European countries, currently Switzerland, Germany, France, the Low Countries and England but potentially extending to the whole of Latin Christendom. The results shed fresh light on the onset, scale, spatial dimensions and duration of the great economic boom that got under way sometime after 1000 and corresponding features of the long contraction then set in train during the fourteenth century." |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:17009&r=his |
| By: | Javier Mejia (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between social networks and entrepreneurship by constructing a dynamic social network from archival records. The network corresponds to the elite of a society in transition to modernity, characterized by difficult geographical conditions, market failures, and weak state capacity, as in late 19th- and early 20th-century Antioquia (Colombia). With these data, I estimate how the decision to found industrial firms related to the position of individuals in the social network. I find that individuals more important bridging the network (i.e. with higher betweenness centrality) were more involved in industrial entrepreneurship. However, I do not find individuals with a denser network to be more involved in this type of activity. The rationale of these results is that industrial entrepreneurship was a highly-complex activity that required a wide variety of complementary resources. Networks operated as substitutes for markets in the acquisition of these resources. Thus, individuals with network positions that favored the combination of a broad set of resources had a comparative advantage in industrial entrepreneurship. I run several tests to prove this rationale. |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20180020&r=his |
| By: | Aske Brock (University of Kent) |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18002&r=his |
| By: | Janet Casson |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18015&r=his |
| By: | Johan Swinnen |
| Abstract: | This dataset includes annual data on agricultural production, prices, trade and derived policy indicators for various commodities and nine European countries since the second half of the 19th century until the countries joined the EU. The countries are Belgium, France, UK, Netherlands, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Spain and Italy. The data was collected from a variety of sources, mostly national statistics, and the commodity and time coverage varies between countries. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:39917&r=his |
| By: | Keith Sugden (University of Cambridge); Sebastian A.J. Keibek; Leigh Shaw-Taylor (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | This study uses male occupational data abstracted from the Court of Common Pleas to determine the location of the English woollen manufacturing industry circa 1500, and from county probate records to track temporal change 1601-1801. It shows that the onset of de- industrialization in textile counties in southern England occurred toward the end of the seventeenth century when the industry began to shift to the West Riding of Yorkshire. Occupations of fathers recorded in Anglican baptism registers 1813-20 indicate that the industry relocated to a relatively small number of places. This study establishes a clear association between these places and the proximity of water and the coalfields. This relationship concurs with the views of Adam Smith to show that coal was important to the woollen manufacture decades before the mechanization of spinning and weaving and the use of steam power. |
| Keywords: | Woollen cloth manufacture, location, timing, coal, water |
| JEL: | N73 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmh:wpaper:33&r=his |
| By: | Sara Torregrosa Hetland (Lund University); Oriol Sabaté (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | "Major warfare and mass mobilization during the two World Wars have been associated to increasing top rates in income taxes in most Western countries, which points towards increases in their progressivity. We argue, however, that this war‐ related effect is less clear‐cut than previously thought. Wartime inflation could have exerted a counteracting impact by pushing citizens into higher tax brackets or including new individuals from the bottom of the income distribution into being taxpayers. In order to address this possibility, we study the developments in the marginal and effective tax rates over the income distribution of a sample of developed countries, both involved and neutral during World War I and World War II. Our preliminary results provide initial support to the hypothesis that inflation partially counteracted the progressive effect of increases in top marginal tax rates." |
| Keywords: | "Taxation, Fiscal redistribution, World Wars, Bracket Creep, Progressivity, Income tax" |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18010&r=his |
| By: | Ella Kavanagh (University College Cork) |
| Abstract: | "The lens through which a Central Bank views the economy and macroeconomic policy affects their analysis of economic performance, their assessment of government policies, their role as policymakers and ultimately economic growth and performance. Economic ideas matter. In keeping with this idea, this paper examines how the thinking of the Irish Central Bank, evolved over a period of major transformation (1943-1969) in the Irish economy and intellectual developments in monetary theory and policy. In doing so, the paper seeks to address the gaps identified by Brownlow (2010) in our understanding of “the precise intellectual influences on the development of the Bank’s economic thinking” and to evaluate whether or not “Ireland’s monetary authorities merely copied British policy practice rather than considered the implications for Ireland of the emerging academic research within monetary economics” (Brownlow 2010, p. 320) This paper adopts an interpretivist approach to the Bank’s Annual Reports from their introduction in 1943 until 1969 to uncover the Bank’s evolving thinking. In this regard, it extends the narrative work completed by Moynihan (1975). We adopt the view that the annual reports, in terms of the data that the Bank collected and published, the evidence it used, its analysis and its commentary on the Irish economy and international events reveal evolving thinking and understanding of how monetary factors affect the economy, how government policy interacts with monetary matters and the role of the Bank and monetary policy in a small but open economy. Where relevant, we also support our analysis with archival research. Our preliminary analysis points to an evolution in the level of analysis, critique and the application of economic ideas. Although the Bank’s governors were initially influenced by UK Treasury thinking, they were also guided by international economists. We note that over time the Central Bank became progressively shaped and influenced by international academic developments in monetary theory and policy, which repositioned them away from UK monetary thinking. While the Central Bank Act 1942 required the Bank to “publish informative material” regarding monetary and credit problems, we find that the content of the reports evolved very rapidly. The Governor (and subsequent governors) began to publish an annual report immediately and by the second report, the Bank had started to comment on macroeconomic conditions. By 1947 the Bank’s Report began to comment on government policy. In this regard they provide clear evidence that the Irish Central Bank differed significantly in how it perceived itself and its role, from the Bank of England at this time. The latter’s reports did not include either analysis or commentary as it wished to ensure that its interpretation of events and their exposition of current problems, would not cause embarrassment to the government. " |
| Keywords: | Central Banks; Development; Monetary History; Economic Thought; Policy |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18022&r=his |
| By: | Sampson, C.; O'Neill, P.; Lorgelly, P. |
| Abstract: | The NHS in England and Wales came into existence on the 5th July 1948. It provided coverage for a range of approved medical and pharmaceutical interventions. This resulted in rapid growth in the use of medicines and improved public health with its associated improvements in economic growth and development. This OHE Consulting Report demonstrates the contribution and impact of medicines to the health economy in the UK throughout the 70 year history of the NHS. Through interviews with experts we identified a shortlist of the most important medicines to have been brought to market, and from a review of the literature and evidence base we attempt to quantify the benefits of these key medicines in terms of health and economic outcomes. We additionally consider the broader impact of medicines and drug development to the health care environment. Our interviews with experts identified a shortlist of ten important new medicines introduced in the NHS in the last 70 years. These were selected from a longer list of 37 on the basis of the frequency that they were cited by interviewees and the strength of feeling about the magnitude of their positive impact in the NHS. Our evidence search identified a variety of benefits encompassing improvement in clinical outcomes, survival benefits, quality of life improvement, greater health service efficiency, and wider societal impacts. Our analysis of the interviews identified seven themes, each representing a factor that has played an important role in determining the impact of new medicines. These themes highlight a variety of ways in which policymakers can facilitate positive impact from new medicines. Their role should be considered in the use of medicines in the NHS over the next 70 years and for new medicines currently in the development pipeline. |
| Keywords: | Economics of innovation |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2018–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ohe:conrep:002047&r=his |
| By: | Helge Liebert; Beatrice Mäder |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of physicians on infant mortality, stillbirths and the incidence of common childhood diseases. We construct a new panel data set covering German municipalities from 1928 to 1936 based on historical sources. The endogeneity of health care supply is addressed by using the expulsion of Jewish physicians from health insurance schemes by the Nazi government in 1933 as a source of exogenous variation in regional physician density. The results indicate substantial mortality effects due to changes in physician density. One additional physician per 1,000 of population reduces infant mortality by 23% and stillbirths by 16%. We find similar negative effects for gastrointestinal diseases and the incidence of measles, influenza and bronchitis. To investigate diminishing returns to health care provision, we develop a semiparametric control function approach. Our results indicate that the marginal returns to physicians are highly nonlinear and decreasing. |
| Keywords: | infant mortality, physicians, health care supply, childhood diseases, semiparametric IV |
| JEL: | I10 I18 N34 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7209&r=his |
| By: | Davide Romelli (Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | What accounts for the worldwide changes in central bank design over the past four decades? Using a new dataset on central bank institutional design, this paper investigates the timing, pace and magnitude of reforms in a sample of 154 countries over the period 1972-2017. I construct a new dynamic index of central bank independence and show that initial reforms that increase the level of independence, as well as a regional convergence, represent important drivers of changes in central bank design. Similarly, an external pressure to reform, such as an IMF loan program, also increases the likelihood of reforms, while political factors or crises episodes have little impact. These results are robust to controlling for the direction and size of reforms, alternative indices of central bank independence and estimation strategies. |
| Keywords: | central banks, central bank independence, central bank governance, legislative reforms. |
| JEL: | E58 G28 N20 P16 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0918&r=his |
| By: | Luciano Amaral (Nova School of Business & Economics); Filipa Santos Machado (Collège d’Europe Bruges) |
| Abstract: | "The Portuguese economy passed through two massive institutional shocks in the period from 1960 to 2015: in 1975, with one of the largest nationalisation programmes ever in the Western world; and in the late-1980s, with one of the largest privatisation programmes ever in the world. We assess how these shocks affected competition in commercial banking through statistical tests of the Panzar-Rosse type. Interesting conclusions result, namely that the nationalisation period did not imply a reduction in competition and that the privatisation period might have meant a reduction in competition. We provide a few hypotheses to understand these counterintuitive results." |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehs:wpaper:18023&r=his |