nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒09‒24
25 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. The Other Way: A Narrative History of the Bank of France By Bignon, Vincent; Flandreau, Marc
  2. Aux prémices des humanités numériques? La première analyse automatisée d'un réseau économique ancien (Gardin Garelli, 1961). Réalisation, conceptualisation, réception By Plutniak, Sébastien
  3. The economic role of the State on the Spanish democratization and "development" process. A case of success? By Francisco Javier Braña Pino; José Molero Zayas
  4. The Allais Paradox: What It Became, What It Really Was, What It Now Suggests to Us By Mongin, Philippe
  5. Were banks special? Contrasting viewpoints in mid-nineteenth century Britain By Willison, Matthew
  6. Can Economic Pressure Overcome Social Norms? The Case of Female Labor Force Participation By Ana Rute Cardoso; Louis-Philippe Morin
  7. Hipertextualidad en la economía remota By Plata Arenas, Lizeth Daniela
  8. The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation By Claudia Olivetti; Barbara Petrongolo
  9. Mortality shifts and mortality compression. The case of Norway, 1900-2060 By Nico Keilman; Dinh Q. Pham; Astri Syse
  10. Fiscal Policy Shocks and Stock Prices in the United States By Haroon Mumtaz; Konstantinos Theodoridis
  11. Thomas Malthus, de los indios en América a la planificación familiar. By Ramírez Chaparro, María Nathalia
  12. World War II and African American Socioeconomic Progress By Ferrara, Andreas
  13. Amphitheaters, cathedrals and operas: The role of historic amenities on suburbanization By Garcia-López, Miquel-Àngel; Pasidis, Ilias; Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet
  14. Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century By Ufuk Akcigit; John Grigsby; Tom Nicholas; Stefanie Stantcheva
  15. Agricultural policy and long-run development: evidence from Mussolini's Battle for Grain By Carillo, Mario Francesco
  16. The Big Bang: Stock Market Capitalization in the Long Run By Kuvshinov, Dmitry; Zimmermann, Kaspar
  17. Habent sua fata professores: Joseph A. Schumpeter an Walter Eucken By Dathe, Uwe; Hedtke, Ulrich
  18. Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises By Pascal Paul
  19. Socioeconomic Determinants and Spatial Convergence of Biological Well-being: The Case of Physical Stature in Colombia, 1920-1990 By Adolfo Meisel-Roca; María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo; Daniela Santos-Cárdenas
  20. Rising Government Debt and What to Do About It By Pierre Yared
  22. La contribución original de Armando Ribas al análisis macroeconómico By Emilio Ocampo
  23. Los conflictos laborales en Cali: reclamos a la sala laboral del Tribunal Superior entre 1946-1960 By Sánchez Salcedo José Fernando
  24. Establishing A New State under Human Resource Constraint: The Experience of the German Reunification By Nakamura, Yasushi
  25. The Democrat-Republican growth gap paradox By Manuel Hidalgo-Pérez; José Luis Ferreira; Carmen Rubio-Castaño

  1. By: Bignon, Vincent; Flandreau, Marc
    Abstract: This paper offers a comprehensive (short) history of central banking in France, starting in the 18th century and finishing with the creation of the Euro in 2001. We first discuss how the French experience with central banking in the 18th century shaped the drafting of the charter and the governance of the Bank of France in 1800. We then single out how the Bank implements its monetary policy in the 19th century and assess the bank achievement in terms of monetary and financial stability. Finally we discuss how the sovereign debt overhang triggered by World War I and the reconstruction subverted the model of central banking previously implemented, and how the reluctance of the Bank to be implicated in the management of the sovereign yield ultimately leads to the loss of its independence vis-a-vis the state. Against this background the use of financial repression under the guidance of the state allowed a smoother management of the debt overhang during the post WW II period, but created its own issues that were addressed effectively only with the creation of the Euro.
    JEL: E58 N23 N24
    Date: 2018–08
  2. By: Plutniak, Sébastien
    Abstract: From as early as the 1950s, J.C. Gardin's work spanned both archaeology and the emerging automation of numerical computation and documentation. In 1961, with P. Garelli, he published the first automated application of graph theory to historical materials, working from Assyrian cuneiform tablets documenting economic relations. This work was then widely ignored both in archeology and network analysis. However, in the past twenty years, socio-epistemic claims related to the growth of the Internet and computing (digital humanities, computational archaeology, etc.) have brought a surge of interest in Gardin's work, which is now regarded as pioneering. Working from archive materials and publications, this paper shows how a historical sociology of scientific writings can be relevant to the history of automation in historical sciences. The paper examines Gardin's recognition as an influential forerunner of computational archeology, showing that : 1) although Gardin had access to resources (financial, instrumental, etc.) that were rare at the time, and could have provided material for the foundation of a school or a specialty, he did not however pursue this ambition; 2) the demonstrative purposes pursued by Gardin with his study of 1961 economic networks varied between the 1960s (demonstrating the relevance of non-numerical computation) and the 1980s (legitimizing simulation in the social sciences), but were never concerned with network analysis as such.
    Keywords: History of Science, Quantitative Methods, Economic Networks, Assyriology
    JEL: B2 B23 B25 B4 C63 N75 N95
    Date: 2018–09–18
  3. By: Francisco Javier Braña Pino (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales. Universidad Complutense de Madrid.); José Molero Zayas (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales. Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)
    Abstract: This paper analyses and discusses, from a political economy perspective, the long period of the Spanish economy, starting at the end of the Civil War and ending in 1993, being our final goal to establish whether what happened in that period of time in Spain can be characterized as a “success.” The analysis is initiated in 1936 when a military uprising led by General Franco, successfully won a civil war and becoming in a military dictatorship regime, which extended itself until 1975. After the dead of General Franco in 1975, though with much pain, a transition to a democratic regimen was initiated, being a first millstone the new Constitution of 1978. Since then the new regime was associated to an economic development with no precedents, despite economic and political crisis periods. We end in 1993, when a cycle or sub-period is over, a new economic crisis starts and Spain culminates its entrance at the European Union and, particularly, at the Monetary and Economic Union what, as it is well known, means the assumption of the Euro as a currency with a substantial change on the political and social policies role.
    Keywords: Political economy; Spanish economy; Civil War; Constitution of 1978; Political crisis; Euro.
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Mongin, Philippe (GREGHEC; CNRS & HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences)
    Abstract: Whereas many others have scrutinized the Allais paradox from a theoretical angle, we study the paradox from an historical perspective and link our findings to a suggestion as to how decision theory could make use of it today. We emphasize that Allais proposed the paradox as a normative argument, concerned with "the rational man" and not the "real man", to use his words. Moreover, and more subtly, we argue that Allais had an unusual sense of the normative, being concerned not so much with the rationality of choices as with the rationality of the agent as a person. These two claims are buttressed by a detailed investigation – the first of its kind – of the 1952 Paris conference on risk, which set the context for the invention of the paradox, and a detailed reconstruction – also the first of its kind – of Allais's specific normative argument from his numerous but allusive writings. The paper contrasts these interpretations of what the paradox historically represented, with how it generally came to function within decision theory from the late 1970s onwards: that is, as an empirical refutation of the expected utility hypothesis, and more specifically of the condition of von Neumann-Morgenstern independence that underlies that hypothesis. While not denying that this use of the paradox was fruitful in many ways, we propose another use that turns out also to be compatible with an experimental perspective. Following Allais's hints on "the experimental definition of rationality", this new use consists in letting the experiment itself speak of the rationality or otherwise of the subjects. In the 1970s, a short sequence of papers inspired by Allais implemented original ways of eliciting the reasons guiding the subjects' choices, and claimed to be able to draw relevant normative consequences from this information. We end by reviewing this forgotten experimental avenue not simply historically, but with a view to recommending it for possible use by decision theorists today.
    Keywords: Allais Paradox; Decision Theory; Expected Utility Theory; Experimental Economics; Positive vs Normative; Rationality; 1952 Paris Conference; Allais; Von Neumann and Morgenstern; Samuelson; Savage
    JEL: B21 B31 B41 C91 D80
    Date: 2018–06–01
  5. By: Willison, Matthew (Bank of England)
    Abstract: In 1853 a Royal Commission was set up to investigate whether laws related to limited liability in Britain needed to be modified. As part of its evidence gathering the commission issued a questionnaire that included a number of questions on whether banks should be subject to the same liability laws as other types of commercial enterprises. This paper analyses the responses to the questions about banks to understand whether banks were seen as a special case. Support for modifying the law to make limited liability more easily available to banks was lower than for enterprises in general. Banks were seen as a special case because of the risk of bank runs and because their creditors were not able to assess accurately the riskiness of banks. But the special nature of banks caused others to favour limited liability because it made banks’ capital levels more transparent. These arguments echo wider debates during the nineteenth century and are similar to contemporary theories for why banks are regulated.
    Keywords: Banking history; liability laws
    JEL: G21 G28 N23
    Date: 2018–09–14
  6. By: Ana Rute Cardoso; Louis-Philippe Morin
    Abstract: We investigate the potential channels that drive female labor force participation to rise in response to unbalanced sex ratios, in the presence of strong social norms against female employment. One such channel is women's desired labor supply, operating through the marriage market, and the other is employers' de­ mand for female labor. If faced with a reduction in male workforce, do employers turn to women to fill in the gap? Do women enter traditionally male occupations and industries, so that segregation decreases? Does the gender pay gap decline? We exploit exogenous variation in sex ratios across cohorts and regions, by using instruments based on casualties from the Portuguese Colonial War and massive emigration in the 1960s combined with its historical regional patterns. We find that as the sex ratio declined, female participation increased, women entered tra­ traditionally male-dominated occupations and industries, and the gender pay gap declined. These findings are consistent with a demand shock. Our estimated impact of sex ratios on marriage market points to a muted supply channel. We complement the quantitative analysis with an archival case. Our findings help to explain an apparent puzzle, a decades-long high female participation in Portugal, as opposed to the other Southern European countries.
    Keywords: Labor demand, labor force participation, gender segregation, pay gap
    JEL: J21 J23 N34 J22
    Date: 2018–09
  7. By: Plata Arenas, Lizeth Daniela
    Abstract: : The present text, is a review of the first currents of the economic thought and its main postulates; things a: mercantilists, physiocrats and classics; in the latter, emphasis is placed on the propositions of Adam Smith and David Ricardo. All this in order to understand and differentiate their approaches, taking into account that some authors rely on the previous answers to complement or generate a new theory.
    Keywords: Pensamiento económico, mercantilistas, fisiócratas, clásicos
    JEL: B0
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Claudia Olivetti (Boston College and NBER); Barbara Petrongolo (Queen Mary University of London, CEPR and CEP (LSE))
    Abstract: We draw lessons from existing work and our own analysis on the effects of parental leave and other interventions aimed at aiding families. The outcomes of interest are female employment, gender gaps in earnings and fertility. We begin with a discussion of the historical introduction of family policies ever since the end of the nineteenth century and then turn to the details regarding family policies currently in effect across high-income nations. We sketch a framework concerning the effects of family policy to motivate our country- and micro-level evidence on the impact of family policies on gender outcomes. Most estimates of the impact of parental leave entitlement on female labor market outcomes range from negligible to weakly positive. The verdict is far more positive for the beneficial impact of spending on early education and childcare.
    Keywords: Parental leave, Childcare, Family policies, Gender gaps
    JEL: J13 J16 J18
    Date: 2017–01–01
  9. By: Nico Keilman; Dinh Q. Pham; Astri Syse (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Historically, official Norwegian mortality projections computed by Statistics Norway have consistently under-predicted life expectancy. The projected age distribution of deaths may be used to check if the official mortality projections are plausible. The aim of the paper is to verify whether the projections predict a continuation of the ongoing compression in mortality and of the steady upward shift in the ages at which people die. We use official period data on observed (1900-2015) and projected (2016- 2060) sex- and age-specific mortality to estimate the age distribution of life table deaths. We analyse trends in life expectancy at birth, modal and median ages at death, and standard deviation of the age distribution at ages > 30. The historical shifts towards longer longevity are projected to continue into the future. The projections suggest a steady increase in the modal and the median age at death for men and women towards values between 90 and 94 years in 2060. At present these ages are in the range 83-90 years. Simultaneously, deaths become more concentrated around the mean, as the standard deviation of the age distribution is projected to fall continuously. Statistics Norway’s projection methodology is capable of tracking ongoing processes of mortality shifts towards higher ages and a compression of mortality around the modal and mean ages. Mortality projections could potentially benefit from including assessments of the age distribution of deaths.
    Keywords: age distribution; life expectancy; median age; modal age; mortality compression; mortality delay; Norway; population projection
    JEL: C53 I10
    Date: 2018–09
  10. By: Haroon Mumtaz (Queen Mary University of London); Konstantinos Theodoridis (Bank of England and Lancaster University)
    Abstract: This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1980 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal multiplier, the response of stock prices to the same shock became negative and larger in magnitude. We use an estimated DSGE model to show that this change is consistent with a switch from an economy characterised by active fiscal policy and passive monetary policy to one where fiscal policy was passive and the central bank acted aggressively in response to inflationary shocks
    Keywords: Fiscal policy shocks, Stock prices, VAR, DSGE
    JEL: C5 E1 E5 E6
    Date: 2017–02–28
  11. By: Ramírez Chaparro, María Nathalia
    Abstract: Throughout history, many have worried about the future of the human race and how it will survive in future times, with the same eyes as before and with hope of hope, as well as with previous solutions, that there are some that already they have been considered as appropriate for their time and their end, others that are in history as the others, as an economist like Thomas Malthus is related to these issues, from their approaches that relate the growth of the population and food in different proportions, until present times in which these postulates are taken into account when creating public policies aimed at procreation.
    Keywords: Planificación familiar, crecimiento poblacional, políticas sociales.
    JEL: B00
    Date: 2017
  12. By: Ferrara, Andreas (Department of Economics and CAGE University of Warwick)
    Abstract: This paper argues that the unprecedented socioeconomic rise of African Americans at mid-century is causally related to the labor shortages induced by WWII. Results from combining novel military and Census data in a di erence-in-differences setting show that counties with an average casualty rate among semi-skilled whites experienced a 13 to 16% increase in the share of blacks in semi-skilled jobs. The casualty rate also has a significant reduced form effect on cross-state migration, wages, home ownership, house value, and education for blacks. Using survey data from 1961, IV regression results indicate that the economic upgrade, which is instrumented with the semi-skilled white casualty rate, is also associated with an increase in social status. Both black and white individuals living in treated counties are more likely to have an interracial friendship, live in mixed-race neighborhoods, and to have reduced preferences for segregation
    Keywords: African-Americans ; Inequality ; Race-Relations ; World War II JEL Classification: J15 ; J24 ; N42
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Garcia-López, Miquel-Àngel; Pasidis, Ilias; Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet
    Abstract: We estimate the causal effect of highway and railroad improvements on the suburbanization of population in Europe's cities focusing on the role of their historic amenities. Using the variation in the origins and the endowments of these historic amenities in the centers of Europe's cities, our results suggest that the effect of transportation networks on suburbanization was significantly lower in cities with historic amenities. Specifically, cities of Roman, Medieval or Renaissance-Baroque origins that maintained their historical heritage were more resilient to suburbanization caused by highway construction.
    Keywords: Architecture; European cities; Historic amenities; suburbanization; Transportation
    JEL: O4 R2 R4
    Date: 2018–08
  14. By: Ufuk Akcigit; John Grigsby; Tom Nicholas; Stefanie Stantcheva
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the twentieth century. We use three new datasets: a panel of the universe of inventors who patent since 1920; a dataset of the employment, location and patents of firms active in R&D since 1921; and a historical state-level corporate tax database since 1900, which we link to an existing database on state-level personal income taxes. Our analysis focuses on the impact of taxes on individual inventors and firms (the micro level) and on states over time (the macro level). We propose several identification strategies, all of which yield consistent results: i) OLS with fixed effects, including inventor and state-times-year fixed effects, which make use of differences between tax brackets within a state-year cell and which absorb heterogeneity and contemporaneous changes in economic conditions; ii) an instrumental variable approach, which predicts changes in an individual or firm's total tax rate with changes in the federal tax rate only; iii) a border county strategy, which exploits tax variation across neighboring counties in different states. We find that taxes matter for innovation: higher personal and corporate income taxes negatively affect the quantity, quality, and location of inventive activity at the macro and micro levels. At the macro level, cross-state spillovers or business-stealing from one state to another are important, but do not account for all of the effect. Agglomeration effects from local innovation clusters tend to weaken responsiveness to taxation. Corporate inventors respond more strongly to taxes than their non-corporate counterparts.
    JEL: H24 H25 H31 J61 O31 O32 O33
    Date: 2018–09
  15. By: Carillo, Mario Francesco
    Abstract: This paper explores the effect of agricultural policies on industrialization and economic development over the long-run. I analyze the differential effect of the \textit{Battle for Grain}, implemented by the Italian Fascist regime to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat production, on the development path across areas of Italy. Employing time variation, along with cross-sectional variation in the suitability of land for the implementation of the advanced wheat production technologies, I find that the policy had unintended positive effects on industrialization and economic prosperity which persisted until the contemporary period. Furthermore, I find that the positive effect of the \textit{Battle for Grain} on human capital accumulation was instrumental in this process, suggesting that the complementarity between human capital and agricultural technology may be a critical mechanism through which agricultural productivity may enhance the development of non-agricultural sectors.
    Keywords: Agricultural Policy; Agricultural Productivity; Industrialization; Human Capital; Long-run Dve
    JEL: F13 J24 N54 O13 O14 O25 O33 Q16 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2018–09–10
  16. By: Kuvshinov, Dmitry; Zimmermann, Kaspar
    Abstract: This paper presents annual stock market capitalization data for 17 advanced economies from 1870 to today. Extending our knowledge beyond individual benchmark years in the seminal work of Rajan and Zingales (2003) reveals a striking new time series pattern: over the long run, the evolution of stock market size resembles a hockey stick. The stock market cap to GDP ratio was stable for more than a century, then tripled in the 1980s and 1990s and remains high to this day. This trend is common across countries and mirrors increases in other financial and price indicators, but happens at a much faster pace. We term this sudden structural shift “the big bang” and use novel data on equity returns, prices and cashflows to explore its underlying drivers. Our first key finding is that the big bang is driven almost entirely by rising equity prices, rather than quantities. Net equity issuance is sizeable but relatively constant over time, and plays very little role in the short, medium and long run swings in stock market cap. Second, much of this price increase cannot be explained by more favourable fundamentals such as profits and taxes. Rather, it is driven by lower equity risk premia – a factor that is linked to subjective beliefs and can be quite fickle, and easily reversible. Third, consistent with this risk premium view of stock market size, the market cap to GDP ratio is a reliable indicator of booms and busts in the equity market. High stock market capitalization – the “Buffet indicator” – forecasts low subsequent equity returns, and low – rather than high – cashflow growth, outperforming standard predictors such as the dividend-price ratio.
    Keywords: Stock market capitalization; financial development; financial wealth; equity issuance; equity valuations; risk premiums; equity bubbles
    JEL: E44 G10 G20 N10 N20 O16
    Date: 2018–08–21
  17. By: Dathe, Uwe; Hedtke, Ulrich
    Abstract: In den Jahren 1939 und 1940 erschienen kurz nacheinander zwei Hauptwerke der theoretischen Nationalökonomie: Joseph Schumpeters 'Business Cycles' und Walter Euckens 'Grundlagen der Nationalökonomie'. Während Schumpeter (1883-1950) in den 'Business Cycles' seine Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung mit seinen Forschungen zum langwelligen Konjunkturverlauf verband und einen regelmäßigen Verlauf langwelliger innovationsbezogener Wirtschaftszyklen von ca. 55 Jahren herausarbeitete, erklärte Eucken (1891-1950) zum Thema wirtschaftliche Entwicklung: "Es gibt keinen Normal-Zyklus der Konjunktur". Im Besondern übergeht er den von Schumpeter 1911 eingeführten Ansatz, ausdrücklich zwischen Wachstum und Entwicklung zu unterscheiden und reflektiert anstelle von Entwicklungen allgemein wirtschaftliche Veränderungen. Nimmt man noch seine konjunkturtheoretische Position hinzu, wonach wirtschaftlich endogene Faktoren konjunkturell genauso ausschlaggebend sind wie exogene, dann ist der Eindruck nicht abzuweisen, dass Eucken an der besonderen Entwicklungsvorstellung Schumpeters gleichsam vorbeigeht und er dessen Innovationstheorie nicht rezipiert. [...]
    Date: 2018
  18. By: Pascal Paul (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: To understand the determinants of financial crises, previous research focused on developments closely related to financial markets. In contrast, this paper considers changes originating in the real economy as drivers of financial instability. Based on long-run historical data for advanced economies, I find that rising top income inequality and low productivity growth are robust predictors of crises – even outperforming wellknown early-warning indicators such as credit growth. Moreover, if crises are preceded by such developments, output declines more during the subsequent recession. In addition, I show that asset booms explain the relation between income inequality and financial crises in the data.
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Adolfo Meisel-Roca; María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo (Banco de la República de Colombia); Daniela Santos-Cárdenas (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between the physical stature of Colombians born during the 20th century and several socioeconomic variables. Using a dataset of more than 225,000 individuals built from judicial background certificates, we find an important increase in the stature of the population: the average height of women increased 4.1 centimeters and that of men increased 5.7 centimeters. Econometric results suggest important differences in the individual’s stature according to gender, level of education, occupation, and place and date of birth. Similarly, the disease environment and access to public services significantly affect people’s height. We find that departmental average height disparities decreased and the gap across regions closed throughout the century. **** RESUMEN: Este artículo investiga la relación entre la estatura de los colombianos nacidos en el siglo XX y algunas variables socioeconómicas. Usando una base de datos de más de 225,000 individuos construida a partir de certificados de antecedentes judiciales, encontramos un aumento importante en la estatura de la población: la estatura promedio de las mujeres aumentó 4,1 centímetros y la de hombres aumentó 5,7 centímetros. Los resultados econométricos sugieren diferencias importantes en la estatura según género, nivel educativo, ocupación, salud, acceso a los servicios públicos y lugar y fecha de nacimiento. Encontramos que las disparidades en la estatura promedio entre departamentos se redujeron y la brecha entre las regiones se cerró a lo largo del siglo.
    Keywords: Anthropometrics, Height, Biological well-being, socio-economic determinants, convergence, Colombia, Antropometría, Estatura, Bienestar, Calidad de vida, Convergencia.
    JEL: I10 I14 I15 N36
    Date: 2018–09
  20. By: Pierre Yared
    Abstract: Over the past four decades, government debt as a fraction of GDP has been on an upward trajectory in advanced economies, approaching levels not reached since World War II. While normative macroeconomic theories can explain the increase in the level of debt in certain periods as a response to macroeconomic shocks, they cannot explain the broad-based long-run trend in debt accumulation. In contrast, political economy theories can explain the long-run trend as resulting from an aging population, rising political polarization, and rising electoral uncertainty across advanced economies. These theories emphasize the time-inconsistency in government policymaking, and thus the need for fiscal rules that restrict policymakers. Fiscal rules trade off commitment to not overspend and flexibility to react to shocks. This tradeoff guides design features of optimal rules, such as information dependence, enforcement, cross-country coordination, escape clauses, and instrument vs. target criteria.
    JEL: D02 E62 H21 H6
    Date: 2018–08
  21. By: Juan Carlos de Pablo
    Abstract: El 1 de setiembre de 2018 se cumplirán 50 años del fallecimiento de Miguel Sidrauski. La ocasión merita reeditar un pequeño libro (¿largo ensayo?), titulado Héctor Luis Diéguez, Miguel Sidrauski y los comienzos de la licenciatura en economía en Argentina.
    Date: 2018–08
  22. By: Emilio Ocampo
    Abstract: Durante el período 1977-1982, el economista cubano-argentino Armando Ribas se convirtió en uno de los críticos más visibles y persistentes de la política económica implementada bajo el gobierno militar liderada inicialmente por José Alfredo Martínez de Hoz. La principal crítica de Ribas se centraba en la inconsistencia entre la política fiscal y monetaria y la importancia de reducir el gasto público para asegurar el éxito de cualquier plan de estabilización. Con el término “monetarismo cum estatismo” definió la implementación de una política fiscal expansiva y una política monetaria restrictiva. El presente trabajo, completado en abril de 2017, reseña las ideas de Ribas, su crítica al enfoque monetario de la balanza de pagos y el plan de estabilización de diciembre de 1978 y plantea ciertos paralelismos entre las políticas económicas implementadas entre 1978-1980 y 2016-2017.
    Keywords: Argentina, Armando Ribas, historia económica, pensamiento económico, planes de estabilización, gasto público.
    Date: 2018–09
  23. By: Sánchez Salcedo José Fernando
    Abstract: Este documento de trabajo presenta una primera aproximación a un caso poco estudiado en Colombia como lo es el desarrollo de la justicia laboral en relación con los conflictos laborales dirimidos por la Sala Laboral del Tribunal Superior de Cali- encargada de recibir los casos que eran apelados en las primeras instancias ó juzgados laborales-, con base en las sentencias expedidas por dicha Sala entre los años 1946 y 1960. Para la realización del trabajo, se analizó una base de datos compuesta por 4332 sentencias las cuales fueron organizadas teniendo en cuenta: fecha de su expedición, el magistrado o los magistrados encargados de revisar el caso, el demandante, la empresa demandada y los motivos de la demanda. Entre los principales hallazgos producto de este análisis se encuentra que los principales motivos de reclamo son los no pagos de cesantías, salarios e indemnizaciones y que el principal demandado para el periodo estudiado es el Estado.
    Keywords: Tribunal Superior, legislación laboral, conflictos laborales
    Date: 2018–09–03
  24. By: Nakamura, Yasushi
    Abstract: The human resources of East Germany were short in the terms of political integrity and professional qualification to establish the new public institutions modeled to those of West Germany. Dispatching West-German personnel, extensive re-training, and creation of informal personal network were the solution to compensate the shortage and to transfer knowledge and know-hows to East Germany. Reunified Germany established the new public institutions quickly, although the sudden change might discourage East-German personnel’s self-efforts to improve their capacities. The German experience suggests that it is difficult for the other ex-socialist countries those cannot expect quick transfer of knowledge and know-hows from the democratic market countries to establish their new public institutions quickly. It would take a long time of a generation and more for those countries to complete the systemic transformations, because the accumulation of the human capital needs the long period., Highlights: ・Human capital for operating state institutions is short in systemic transformation. ・Transfer of knowledge and know-hows is needed to solve the problem. ・Dispatching West-German personnel, re-training, and informal network solved it. ・Applying the German solution to the other ex-socialist countries are difficult. ・A generation or more are needed to complete the systemic transformation.
    Keywords: German reunification, Government, Human capital, Systemic transformation, Economic transition
    JEL: H10 N44 O15 P20 P37
    Date: 2018–06
  25. By: Manuel Hidalgo-Pérez (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); José Luis Ferreira (Universidad Carlos III); Carmen Rubio-Castaño (Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
    Abstract: Economic performance has been historically better under Democrat presidents compared to Republican ones. This gap has not yet been fully explained appealing to better management or luck. In fact, the economic cycles under one group of administrations or the other are quite similar. Blinder and Watson (2016) provide the best attempt so far at solving the paradox, but can explain only half of the gap. Drawing from them, and using a different method to account for the initial conditions of each presidential term, we are able to show that the phase of the economic cycle at the different elections are correlated to the party of the president. We also find ample evidence suggesting that there is a subtle causality: when the unemployment is high, the probability of a person voting for a Democrat president increases, thus causing Democrats being elected more often at the end of a recession and the beginning of a recovery. This, and not the difference in competence dealing with the economic cycles, is enough to close the gap.
    Keywords: Business cycle, econometric time series, elections, economic growth
    JEL: D72 E23 E32 E65 N12 N42 C43 C32
    Date: 2018–09

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