nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒07‒30
37 papers chosen by

  1. Statistik und Organisation der NS-Kriegswirtschaft und der DDR-Planwirtschaft 1933-1949/50 By Fremdling, Rainer
  2. Public Investment and Growth Accelerations: The Case of Southern Italy, 1951-1995 By Erasmo Papagni; Amedeo Lepore; Emanuele Felice; Anna Laura Baraldi; Maria Rosaria Alfano
  3. Whose “pound of flesh”? Egyptian sterling balances, 1939-1958 By Ricardo de Menezes Barboza
  5. Modeling insurgent-incumbent dynamics: Vector autoregressions,multivariate Markov chains, and the nature of technological competition By Bruno Damásio; Sandro Mendonça
  6. ‘Economics’ of prosperity: Why the dominant perspectives may be unhelpful to make sense of underdevelopment By Gupta, Avinash
  7. Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century By David S. Jacks; Dennis Novy
  8. The Lyon Stock Exchange: The Survival of the Fittest (1866-1914) By Jérémy Ducros; Angelo Riva
  9. Negócios britânicos no Brasil: da maturidade à irrelevância, 1850-1950 By Marcelo de Paiva Abreu
  10. Bankers drawing lessons from history: lucidity or blindness? By Hubert Bonin
  11. The billion pound drop: the blitz and agglomeration economics in London By Dericks, Gerard; Koster, Hans R. A.
  12. The contributions of Angus Deaton By Besley, Timothy
  13. From Italianization to Germanization : Division of Labor, Economic Rents, and Anti-German Attitudes in South Tyrol By Belmonte, Alessandro; Di Lillo, Armando
  14. Former Communist Party Membership and Bribery in the Post-Socialist Countries By Ivlevs, Artjoms; Hinks, Timothy
  15. Oil discoveries and education spending in the postbellum south By Maurer, Stephan E.
  16. Fast track to growth? Railway access, population growth and local displacement in 19th century Switzerland By Büchel, Konstantin; Kyburz, Stephan
  17. Coercive state, resisting society, political and economic development in Iran By Mehrdad Vahabi
  18. Un récit historique alternatif sur l’indépendance des banques centrales: la doctrine et les pratiques avant la théorie ou l’art avant la science By Adriano Do Vale
  19. Industrial activities and primary schooling in early nineteenth-century France By Adrien Montalbo
  20. Maternal Mortality and Women's Political Participation By Bhalotra, Sonia R.; Clarke, Damian; Gomes, Joseph; Venkataramani, Atheendar
  21. Guns and Violence: The Enduring Impact of Crack Cocaine Markets on Young Black Males By William N. Evans; Craig Garthwaite; Timothy J. Moore
  22. La desigualdad económica entre las regiones de Colombia, 1926-2016 By Lucas Wilfried Hahn-De-Castro; Adolfo Meisel-Roca
  23. Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America By Trofimov, Ivan D.
  24. The Long-Term Outcomes of Refugees: Tracking the Progress of the East African Asians By Anders, Jake; Burgess, Simon; Portes, Jonathan
  25. Hayek's liberal dialectics By Claude Gamel
  26. “Do government formation deadlocks damage economic growth? Evidence from history’s longest period of political deadlock” By Daniel Albalate; Germà Bel
  27. Complex Economic Activities Concentrate in Large Cities By Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Cristian Jara-Figueroa; Sergio Petralia; Mathieu Steijn; David Rigby; César Hidalgo
  28. Chapter 3: The Historical Evolution of Base Erosion and Profit Shifting By Durst, Michael C.
  29. Secrets for sale? Innovation and the nature of knowledge in an early industrial district: the Potteries, 1750-1851 By Lane, Joseph
  30. Clown Prince of the Revolution. On Slavoj Žižek, a new kind of leftist thinker By Roger Scruton
  31. Gravity and Migration before Railways : Evidence from Parisian Prostitutes and Revolutionaries By Kelly, Morgan; Cormac ´O Grada
  32. The Impact of the Reformation on the Economic Development of Western Europe By Sheremeta, Roman; Smith, Vernon
  33. The Khoikhoi Population, 1652-1780: A Review of the Evidence and Two New Estimates By Sumner La Croix
  34. América Latina: o contexto externo, 1928-1982 By Marcelo de Paiva Abreu
  35. Financial Development and Industrial Pollution By de Haas, Ralph; Popov, A.
  36. A Nazi 'Killer' Amendment By Benny Moldovanu; Andreas Kleiner
  37. Does the Form Matter? Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth By Frank Adusah-Poku; William Bekoe

  1. By: Fremdling, Rainer
    Abstract: Abstract: NS-War Economy 1933-1945 and Abstract: The Emergence of the Planned Economy in East-Germany 1945-1949/50 The major part deals with economic statistics as an instrument for warfare and war preparation. Firstly, the involvement of German Statistical Office (Statistisches Reichsamt) is described and analyzed: as soon as in 1934, plans emerged in the Office to conduct periodical industrial censuses as a means of a statistical information system to meet the demands of a planned or commanded economy for warfare. The comprehensive industrial census of 1936 became the main source for this purpose. Secondly, the statistical information is put forward. It was increasingly provided by mandatory reporting of private industrial firms and their organizations, which became instrumental in steering the German economy. Officially and privately organized economic statistics finally merged: during the war, the Ministry of Economics set up a statistical information system based on the collaboration between the German Statistical Office and the German Institute for Economic Research (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung). In 1943, the responsible department of the Ministry of Economics was incorporated into the Planning Office (Planungsamt) of Speer´s Ministry for Armament. Within this centre of economic command economic statistics became an essential tool for running the German economy during the last years of the war. In a separate chapter, plans of the Ministry of Economics during the last months of the war are highlighted which aimed at designing an institutional framework for centralizing and centrally steering German empirical economic research and economic statistics after the war. Finally, the use of the NS-statistics after the war is touched upon, thus forming a bridging chapter to East-Germany setting up its planned economy. A separate case study deals with a report of the Statistical Office asked for by the Ministry of Economics in 1936 to estimate the assets of German Jews. Immediately after the war, the commands of Soviet Military Administration for Germany (SMAD) endeavoured to re-establish and increase production in the Soviet Zone of Occupation (SBZ). For short term economic planning, they required regular statistical reports from business firms. Not before 1948, however, did the Central Statistical Office (StZA) founded in the fall of 1945 succeed in standardizing and centralizing the statistics reported by business firms. The federal structure of the SBZ with its strong position of the independent statistical offices of the individual states was to blame for the delay. It was finally overcome when the StZA became a major department of the newly created German Economic Commission (DWK), the centralized governmental body of the SBZ. Right from the beginning, the StZA drew on economic statistics of NS-Germany to obtain a basis for steering and planning the East German economy. Above all in 1947/48, the original files of the Industrial Census of 1936 were rearranged and evaluated for the Two-Years-Plan of 1949/50, the first elaborate planning scheme of the GDR. Until then the insufficient statistical reporting system of East Germany had not allowed such a planning.
    Keywords: Nazi-Germany; East-Germany after the War; War Economy; Plan Economy
    JEL: H56 N14 N44 P21
    Date: 2018–06–30
  2. By: Erasmo Papagni; Amedeo Lepore; Emanuele Felice; Anna Laura Baraldi; Maria Rosaria Alfano
    Abstract: This paper analyses the contribution of public investment to growth in southern Italy in the second half of the twentieth century (1951-1995). The period saw the only convergence in modern times of the Mezzogiorno towards the Italian average (1951-1973), followed by divergence (1974-1995). Using cointegration analysis we find a statistically significant positive effect of public investment on the growth of the Mezzogiorno in the period 1951-1995. The Bai-Perron tests suggest that economic growth followed two distinct regimes, the first regime of accelerated growth in the years 1951-1973 (average growth rate 5.3%), and the second regime of low growth in the period 1974-1995 (average growth rate 1.6%). This result is confirmed by the testing procedure of Hansen (1992) which indicates a break in the determinants of GDP per unit of labour in 1974. The estimates of the model on time series of the two periods show statistically significant parameters of public investment in the first regime, but not in the second regime, when economic growth is sustained by business investment and technical change. The paper suggests that public capital may have a significant positive role in episodes of growth accelerations if the quality of the institutional environment is high, but it can lose its effectiveness if bureaucratic corruption and rent-seeking strongly affect public policy.
    Keywords: Public Investment, Growth Instability, Cointegration, Structural breaks, Southern Italy.
    JEL: H54 O14 O18 O47
    Date: 2018–06–10
  3. By: Ricardo de Menezes Barboza (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social - BNDES)
    Abstract: Sterling balances were a major issue from the point of view of British policy makers. They amounted to £3,555 million in mid-1945 corresponding to almost seven times British pre-war yearly exports. Egyptian sterling balances were importante as Egypt was the second holder of such balances only behind India. Moreover, the Egyptian case has not been adequately dealt in the literature. This is partly explained by the fact that Egypt was excluded from the Sterling Area as a result of the 1947 negotiations with Britain.The strategic interest in the control of the Suez canal did not diminish after the war and provided the main justification to maintain at a very high cost 80,000-100,000 British troops stationed in the Canal Zone. This required not less than £20 million of yearly British military expenditures. Successive complications led the Suez crisis of 1956 and the end of British influence in Egypt and in the Middle East. The paper is divided into four sections. The first section focuses on the war and the initial post war period up to the visit to Cairo of Wilfrid Eady, of the Treasury, and Cameron Cobbold, of the Bank of England, on their return from India in early 1947. The next section is a detailed discussion of the successive negotiations involving Egyptian sterling balances between 1947 and 1959. Section III analyses the main issues involved in the negotiations: sterling and dollar releases, cancellation and inflation in the creditor economy, gold guarantees and the interest rate on balances. The following section is on international comparisons of Egypt with other significant sterling balance holders: Argentina, Brazil, India and Portugal. Egyptian losses with the delay in releases and consequent erosion by inflation, low interest rates and sterling devaluation are assessed. It concludes with an evaluation of the Egytian case in contrast with other sterling balance holders.
    Date: 2017–07
  4. By: Dorothy S. McClellan (Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi); Nikola Knez (21st Century Society for Human Rights & Education)
    Abstract: This presentation examines violations of international law in Europe at the end of World War II that resulted in what is referred to as The Bleiburg Massacre and Operation Slaughterhouse. Through analysis of historical documents, newly released evidence of mass graves, and interviews with survivors, military intelligence officers, and scholars, we trace the forced repatriation to Yugoslavia of 700,000 Croatian civilians and military personnel who sought asylum in Austria at the close of World War II. The study provides support for the thesis of complicity of British authorities with Josip Broz Tito in violation of the Geneva Conventions. Data suggest that the violations of international law led to the death of the overwhelming majority of these individuals at the hands of Yugoslav Partisans through death marches and mass executions. The presentation includes excerpts from a documentary film on the subject currently in production by the authors.
    Keywords: genocide, international law violations, Geneva Conventions, World War II, Bleiburg Massacre, war crimes
    JEL: K33 K42 D74
    Date: 2017–07
  5. By: Bruno Damásio; Sandro Mendonça
    Abstract: The struggle between sail and steam is a long-standing theme in economic history. But this technological competition story has only partly tackled, since most studies have appreciated the rivalry between the two alternative modes of commercial sea carriage in the late 19th century while the early period has remained relatively under-analysed. This paper models the early dynamics between the two capital goods using a vector autoregression approach (VAR) and a Multivariate Markov Chain approach (MMC). We find evidence that the relationship was nonlinear, with a strong indication of complementarities and cross-technology learning effects.
    Keywords: economic history, technological competition, sailing ships, steamships, vector autoregression, multivariate Markov chain
    Date: 2018–07
  6. By: Gupta, Avinash
    Abstract: The article is essentially a book-review of Professor Vijay Joshi's recent work, '"India's Long Road: The Search for Prosperity". In this critical essay, I take a slightly revisionist approach when it comes to a 'typical'book review. For example, the length of this article goes well-beyond the standard convention. The ‘deviation’ from rules, however, has specific objectives. I have critically analyzed Dr. Joshi’s work and in so doing include relevant evidences, debates and questions not just from economics but also from other disciplines such as history and political science.
    Keywords: Underdevelopment, critical analysis, political and social dynamics in policy
    JEL: A23 B5 B52 H25 L5 N6 O1 O25 P26
    Date: 2018–07–02
  7. By: David S. Jacks; Dennis Novy
    Abstract: We examine the evolution of market potential and its role in driving economic growth over the long twentieth century. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed-form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are thus able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimated variables. Empirically, we collect a large dataset on aggregate and bilateral trade flows as well as output for 51 countries. We find that market potential exhibits an upward trend across all regions of the world from the early 1930s and that this trend significantly deviates from the evolution of world GDP. Finally, using exogenous variation in trade-related distances to world markets, we demonstrate a significant causal role of market potential in driving global income growth over this period.
    Keywords: economic geography, market potential, structural gravity, trade costs
    JEL: F1 N7
    Date: 2018–07
  8. By: Jérémy Ducros (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Angelo Riva (FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, European Business School Paris - European Business School Paris)
    Abstract: In this paper, we look back at the XIX century France to shed light on effect of competition in the stock exchange industry. During the XIX century the Paris financial centre plays a central role in the French financial markets. Nevertheless, six organized regional exchanges do exist along all the second half of the century. A recent literature started to study the complex functioning of the Paris financial centre as well as the interaction between its two components, the official Paris Bourse and its OTC rival, the Coulisse. Nevertheless, a very small literature is devoted to the regional French exchanges. By studying the interactions between Paris and Lyon, we find that, after the 1881-1882 boom and burst, the Lyon stock exchange has to struggle for surviving facing fierce competition from the Paris Bourse and main national banks particularly after the 1898 reorganisation of the Paris financial centre, while the strong activity of Coulisse before the 1895 gold mines crash had a positive effect on the Lyon one. After the 1898 reorganisation, the Lyon stock exchange survived thanks to a new listing policy favourable to SMEs and the development of second tiers market for both these unofficially traded SMEs and unlisted risky (mainly foreign) stocks. On the other side, the progressive homogenisation of the official market imposed by regulators to enhance their control over the French securities market acted as force driving trading to Paris: only the facilities the Lyon exchange gave to the main banks of the financial centre maintained some activity.
    Keywords: Lyon stock exchange,Paris stock exchange,Coulisse,competition,exchanges
    Date: 2018–01
  9. By: Marcelo de Paiva Abreu (Departamento de Economia, PUC-Rio)
    Abstract: Este artigo considera as tendências de longo prazo das relações econômicas e financeiras britânicas com o Brasil desde 1850. Abrange investimentos e outas manifestações da presença britânica no Brasil, tais como as relacionadas a comércio e intermediação financeira. O interesse fundamental é no envolvimento britânico com as atividades do setor privado no Brasil, seja através de investimento direto, seja na intermediação financeira em benefício de firmas privadas que operavam no Brasil. O artigo também menciona o papel de Londres como centro financeiro no qual eram lançados empréstimos públicos brasileiros, a relevância do Reino Unido como mercado para as exportações brasileiras e como supridor de importações para o Brasil, e a intermediação britânica no comércio brasileiro com terceiros países. O artigo é dividido em seções cronológicas: os anos imperiais (1850- 1889); estagnação e boom (1889-1914); primeiros sinais de declínio (1914-1930); os anos de redução de investimentos (1930-meados da década de 1950). A seção final apresenta as conclusões e menciona as tendências pós-1950.
    Date: 2017–07
  10. By: Hubert Bonin
    Abstract: Lessons from economic history are ever difficult to seize on because the motto \"this time is different\" and so many managerial fads foster a lack of lucidity. Anyway business and banking historians stick to their struggle to convince managers and bankers to read into academic books or journals, and to pick up levers to gauge cyclical trends, evolutions of balance sheet, pending risks, etc. This article delves into the history of banking crisis to fuel arguments about the challenges to be faced against herding bad practices as behavourial finance gathered Momentum since the 2007-2009 crisis.
    Keywords: banks, crisis, risks, credit, issues of balance-sheets solidity
    JEL: G01 G02 G21 N21 N80
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Dericks, Gerard; Koster, Hans R. A.
    Abstract: This paper exploits locally exogenous variation in the location of bombs dropped during the Blitz to quantify the effect of density restrictions on agglomeration economies in London: an elite global city. Employing microgeographic data on office rents and employment, this analysis points to effects for London several multiples larger than the existing literature which primarily derives its results from secondary cities. In particular, doubling employment density raises rents by 25%. Consequently if the Blitz had not taken place, the resulting loss in agglomeration economies to present day London would cause total annual office rent revenues to fall by $4:5 billion {equivalent to 1:2% of London's annual GDP. These results illuminate the substantial impact of land-use regulations in one of the world's largest and most productive cities.
    Keywords: regulatory costs; office rents; agglomeration economies; London Blitz bombings
    JEL: R14 R33 R38
    Date: 2018–04–01
  12. By: Besley, Timothy
    Abstract: Angus Deaton was awarded the 2015 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare. This article reviews his contributions to economics.
    Keywords: Consumption; poverty measurement; well-being
    JEL: D10 D31 I30
    Date: 2016–07–01
  13. By: Belmonte, Alessandro (IMT Lucca & University of Warwick); Di Lillo, Armando (IMT Lucca)
    Abstract: Do frictions in the labour market prompt salience in the ethnic con ict and induce a shift in voting towards extremist political platforms in a privileged minority group? We address this question by exploiting a natural experiment of history that occurred in the late 1960s in South Tyrol, a northernmost and predominantly German-speaking region of Italy. During the 1930s, the region underwent a massive process of Italianization that strengthened markedly entry barriers into public oces for the German- relative to the Italian-speaking population. The resulting ethnic division of labour was brought back to question by a new reform package that aimed at redistributing jobs in the public administration sector proportionally to the numerosity of each language group. Following the announcement of the reform, we document : (i) a general increase in anti-German attitudes in the Italian group ; (ii) an intensi cation of anti-German attitudes in municipalities where Italians were fewer ; and (iii) where Italians were more specialized as public officers. We interpret this result as evidence of the salience of ethnic con ict when institutional changes induce competition between ethnic groups and put at risk historically-established economic rents of a privileged group.
    Date: 2018
  14. By: Ivlevs, Artjoms (University of the West of England, Bristol); Hinks, Timothy (University of the West of England, Bristol)
    Abstract: We study the effect of former Communist party membership on paying bribes to public officials and motivations for bribery, 25 years after the fall of communist rule. Data come from a large representative survey, conducted in post-socialist countries in 2015/16. To deal with endogeneity, we instrument party membership with information on whether family members were affected by the Second World War. Instrumental variable results suggest that links to the former Communist party increase the likelihood of paying bribes today; this result applies to the former party members as well as their children and relatives. Among bribe payers, people with the party links are more likely to offer bribes as well as think that bribe payments are expected. Overall, our findings suggest that the proclivity to corruption of the former Communist party members has been transmitted through family and thus sustained over time, contributing to corruption decades after the demise of the Socialist bloc.
    Keywords: corruption, Communist party, political elite, post-socialist countries, path dependency
    JEL: D73 P37
    Date: 2018–06
  15. By: Maurer, Stephan E.
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of oil wealth on the provision of education in the early 20th century United States. Using information on the location and discovery of major oil fields, I find that oil wealth increased local revenue and education spending. The quality of white teachers increased, and oil-rich counties were more likely to participate in the Rosenwald school building program for blacks. In addition, student-teacher ratios for black school children declined substantially. However, I do not find increased school enrollment rates for either race.
    Keywords: oil; education; race; Rosenwald; local public finances; resource booms; teachers
    JEL: I2 N3 Q3
    Date: 2018–01–01
  16. By: Büchel, Konstantin; Kyburz, Stephan
    Abstract: We study the effect of railway access on population growth in 19th century Switzerland. Our analysis is based on geo-referenced railway network information and an inconsequential units IV approach. Gaining direct railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points, while municipalities in close vicinity but no direct access (i.e. 2-10 km distance) experienced a growth slump of similar magnitude. We interpret these findings as evidence of highly localised displacement effects related to railway connections.
    Keywords: railway access; population growth; displacement effects
    JEL: N33 N73 O18
    Date: 2018–04–01
  17. By: Mehrdad Vahabi (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In my studies, I have explored the political economy of Iran and particularly the relationship between the state and socioeconomic development in this country. The importance of the oil revenue in economic development of contemporary Iran has been underlined since the early seventies and a vast literature on the rentier state and authoritarian modernization has scrutinized the specificities of the political and economic natural resource 'curse' in Iran. A new critical social history of the oil industry has recently endeavored to reconsider the spread effects of this industry on the emergence of new cities and labor activities. In this sense, the impact of oil revenue on economic development should be mitigated: it has not been only a 'curse' but also a 'blessing'. The precious results of natural resource curse or blessing notwithstanding, this approach is insufficient to explain why some predatory states reliant on natural resources could contribute to economic development while others hinder such development. Two recent examples provide a salient illustration: why did the Shah's regime which was dependent on oil revenues enhance economic development during 1962-1974, while Ahmadinjead's two terms presidency (2005-2013) imped economic growth despite the quadrupling of oil revenues? In this essay, I will first introduce my theoretical framework and distinguish two types of predatory states, i.e. inclusive and exclusive (section 1). I will then apply this framework to explain oil and economic development (section 2). Section 3 will be devoted to the Shah's regime as an inclusive predatory state, and section 4 to Ahmadinjead's presidency as an illustration of an exclusive predatory state. A short conclusion will follow.
    Keywords: Capital flight,Captive, Intermediary and Fugitive assets,Confiscatory regimes,Inclusive and Exclusive Predatory States,Islamic Republic of Iran,Land Reform,Oil revenues,the Shah regime
    Date: 2017–09–07
  18. By: Adriano Do Vale (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: La fin des années 80 et les années 90 ont été marquées par une grande vague d'adoption de l'indépendance des banques centrales (IBC). Les manuels et les revues de la littérature adoptent souvent un récit historique standard la présentant comme une sucess story, comme l'application d'un consensus théorique. L'art aurait suivi le pas de la science. Cet article a comme finalité ultime de proposer un récit alternatif concernant l'IBC. Adoptant une perspective historique centrée sur la première partie des années 20, nous entendons démontrer que la doctrine des banquiers centraux et les pratiques, comprises en tant qu'adoption de l'IBC, précédent la théorie, l'art venant alors avant la science. Vue de façon normative par la littérature économique à partir des années 80, l'indépendance est pensée, dès les années 20, par les praticiens qui posent eux-mêmes les principes du central banking. Dans la nouvelle donne de l'après-guerre, marquée par l'absence de l'ancrage nominal autrefois fourni par l'étalon-or, l'IBC s'avère un arrangement institutionnel alternatif face à l'inflation. Elle est recommandée au niveau international et constitue un principe central de la doctrine du central banking avancé par le gouverneur anglais Montagu Norman. Comme pour le principe d'indépendance, les pratiques précèdent la théorie. On considère qu'il y a eu une première vague d'adoption de l'IBC dans la première moitié des années 20, bien avant la vague d'adoption de l'IBC de la fin des années 80 et des années 90. Suite à des expériences hyper-inflationnistes et dans le cadre de plans de stabilisation monétaire sous tutelle internationale, les banques centrales de l'Autriche (1923), de la Hongrie (1924) et de l'Allemagne (1922-24) deviennent légalement indépendantes.
    Date: 2017–12–12
  19. By: Adrien Montalbo (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article investigates the relation between industrial activities and the expansion of primary instruction in early nineteenth-century France. To do so, I use a newly constituted database on the location and characteristics of primary schools at the level of municipalities. This database is extracted from the Guizot Survey conducted in 1833, before the implementation of the first national law making the opening of a school mandatory in any municipality more than 500 inhabitants. By using mineral deposits as an instrument, I first show that the presence of industrial activities and the level of industrial production in a given municipality were positively influencing the presence of primary schools. Second, I show that this was due to an income effect thanks to which municipalities were capable of attracting teachers and of more frequently paying them on a regular basis. Other economic factors, as the agricultural resources of districts, and geographical or demographical factors as population dispersion were also important in explaining the location of primary schools. Finally, I show that this came at a price in terms of children enrolment in schools. The same economic factors were contributing to a diversion of children from schools, either because of a relative impoverishment of workers or because of an increased opportunity cost of schooling.
    Keywords: primary instruction,industrial activities,nineteenth-century France
    Date: 2018–06
  20. By: Bhalotra, Sonia R. (University of Essex); Clarke, Damian (Universidad de Santiago de Chile); Gomes, Joseph (University of Navarra); Venkataramani, Atheendar (Massachusetts General Hospital)
    Abstract: Raising women's political participation leads to faster maternal mortality decline. We estimate that the introduction of quotas for women in parliament results in a 9 to 12% decline in maternal mortality. In terms of mechanisms, it also leads to an 8 to 11% increase in skilled birth attendance and a 6 to 11% increase in prenatal care utilization. We find reinforcing evidence from the period in which the United States experienced rapid declines in maternal mortality. The historical decline made feasible by the introduction of antibiotics was significantly greater in states that had longer exposure to women's suffrage.
    Keywords: maternal mortality, women's political representation, gender, quotas, suffrage
    JEL: I14 I15 O15
    Date: 2018–06
  21. By: William N. Evans; Craig Garthwaite; Timothy J. Moore
    Abstract: Crack cocaine markets were associated with substantial increases in violence in the U.S. during the 1980s and 1990s. Using cross-city variation in the emergence of these markets, we show that the resulting violence has important long-term implications for understanding current levels of murder rates by age, sex and race. We estimate that the murder rate of young black males doubled soon after crack’s entrance into a city, and that these rates were still 70 percent higher 17 years after crack’s arrival. We document the role of increased gun possession as a mechanism for this increase. Following previous work, we show that the fraction of suicides by firearms is a good proxy for gun availability and that this variable among young black males follows a similar trajectory to murder rates. Access to guns by young black males explains their elevated murder rates today compared to older cohorts. The long run effects of this increase in violence are large. We attribute nearly eight percent of the murders in 2000 to the long-run effects of the emergence of crack markets. Elevated murder rates for younger black males continue through to today and can explain approximately one tenth of the gap in life expectancy between black and white males.
    JEL: H0 I0 I12 I18 J0
    Date: 2018–07
  22. By: Lucas Wilfried Hahn-De-Castro; Adolfo Meisel-Roca
    Abstract: Este documento estima la actividad económica regional observada durante el siglo XX en Colombia. Se hace un recuento de los factores que incidieron sobre el desempeño económico de las regiones, entre los cuales se considera la baja integración de los mercados locales y el desarrollo tardío de la infraestructura de transporte. Dado que las cifras oficiales de producción regional sólo están disponibles para las últimas tres décadas, se presenta una estimación de la actividad económica para seis regiones colombianas durante el siglo XX. Dicha estimación permite la aplicación de técnicas de análisis de convergencia regional, como las realizadas por Robert Barro y Xavier Sala-i-Martin. Se concluye que Colombia es un país donde no se ha observado un proceso de convergencia regional del producto per cápita. La producción se concentra en las regiones cercanas al centro del país, mientras que las regiones periféricas como las costas Caribe y Pacífica presentan una disminución en términos relativos en su actividad económica per cápita. **** ABSTRACT: This paper estimates regional economic activity in Colombia during the 20th century. Some factors that influenced the development of regional inequalities in economic activity are, among others, the low regional integration because of the late development of transport infrastructure. Given that official data on economic activity is only available for the last three decades, we present an estimation of regional production for the 20th century. These estimations are then used to discuss the absence of regional convergence in the country. Well-known techniques used in the literature of economic convergence are applied, such as those proposed by Robert Barro and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. We conclude that the central regions in Colombia have improved in terms of their per capita economic production, while peripheral regions, such as the Caribbean and Pacific coasts, have lagged in relative terms.
    Keywords: Siglo XX, Convergencia regional, Colombia, Siglo XX, Convergencia regional, Colombia
    JEL: N96 O18 R11
    Date: 2018–07–17
  23. By: Trofimov, Ivan D.
    Abstract: The paper considers the effects of income terms of trade (ToT) on GDP per capita in Latin American economies and examines whether improvement in the income ToT (in absolute and relative terms) contributes to the stochastic convergence between respective economies and the US. It is shown that in the majority of the economies, income ToT had positive effects on the level of GDP per capita. The stochastic convergence was documented in Chile, Dominican Republic, and Uruguay. The positive effects of income ToT increase on GDP per capita convergence were documented only in Chile and Uruguay. The growth of the volume of exports played a key role in the process, while the effects on the part of net barter ToT were insignificant. In both economies, the improvement in the income ToT relative to the US level played a positive role in convergence.
    Keywords: Terms of trade, convergence, Prebisch-Singer thesis
    JEL: C22 F02 F14 N76
    Date: 2018–06–26
  24. By: Anders, Jake; Burgess, Simon (University of Bristol); Portes, Jonathan (King's College London)
    Abstract: Refugees are often perceived as an economic "burden", as the current debate on the European refugee crisis illustrates. But there is little quantitative evidence on the medium-term outcomes of refugees in the UK. We fill this gap by looking at the case of "East African Asians" who arrived as refugees in the late 1960s and early 1970s. We use data from the UK Census to describe their economic outcomes forty years later. We show that their outcomes are at least as good as the population average, with the younger cohort performing better. Refugee status, as distinct from ethnicity or immigrant status, appears to have a positive impact.
    Keywords: migration, refugees, East African Asians
    JEL: J15
    Date: 2018–06
  25. By: Claude Gamel (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Although they lived a century apart, Hayek might be considered as the liberal counterpart of Marx: not only both carried out transdisciplinary studies but they also used a dialectic approach. According to Hayek, the evolution of human societies can't remain under control because the " spontaneous social order " is opposed to " organisations " , which rests upon a conflict between two kinds of rationality at the epistemological level (I). That opposition can only be overcome, in the legal order, through the fine tracking of " abstract rules of just conduct " (II). However Hayek's pessimistic view remains and results from the divergence, in the field of economics, between the rules necessary for the market order and a conception of justice in society which is too ambitious and can even destroy it (III). In conclusion, we ask the question of which safeguards are relevant nowadays to make liberal societies survive, as Hayek sought.
    Abstract: Hayek peut être considéré, à un siècle de distance, comme l'homologue libéral de Marx, non seulement par le caractère transdisciplinaire de la réflexion, mais surtout par le recours à une démarche dialectique. Selon Hayek, l'évolution non maîtrisable des sociétés humaines oppose « ordre social spontané » et « organisations » et repose sur un conflit de « rationalité » d'ordre épistémologique (I). Cette opposition ne peut être surmontée, dans l'ordre juridique, qu'au prix du repérage délicat de « règles abstraites de juste conduite » (II). Le pessimisme propre à Hayek résulte alors, dans le champ de l'économie, de la divergence entre les règles nécessaires à l'ordre du marché et une conception trop ambitieuse de la justice en société qui risque de le détruire (III). D'où l'évocation, en conclusion, de la pertinence aujourd'hui des garde-fous à mettre en place, pour que, selon Hayek, les sociétés libérales puissent malgré tout survivre.
    Keywords: Rules of just conduct,Liberalism, Dialectics, Spontaneous order,Organisations, Dialectique,Libéralisme, Ordre spontané, Organisations, Règles de juste conduite
    Date: 2018–07–05
  26. By: Daniel Albalate (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics & GiMIREA University of Barcelona. C/ John Keynes 1-11, 08034 Barcelona. Tel: 34.93.4031131); Germà Bel (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics & GiM-IREA University of Barcelona. C/ John Keynes 1-11, 08034 Barcelona. Tel: 34.93.4031131 Fax:34.93.4024573)
    Abstract: Several countries have experienced lengthy periods of political deadlock in recent years, as they have sought to form a new government. This study examines whether government formation deadlocks damagea country’s economy. To do so, we analyze the case of Belgium, which took a record 541 days to create a post-election government, following the June 2010 federal elections. Employing the synthetic control method, our results show that the Belgian economy did not suffer an economic toll; on the contrary, GDP per capita growth was higher than would have otherwise been expected. As such, our evidence contradicts frequent claims that long periods of government formation deadlock negatively affect an economy.
    Keywords: Government, Political economy, Synthetic Control Method, Belgium. JEL classification:D72, E02, E65, H1, O43, P48, P52.
    Date: 2018–07
  27. By: Pierre-Alexandre Balland; Cristian Jara-Figueroa; Sergio Petralia; Mathieu Steijn; David Rigby; César Hidalgo
    Abstract: Why do some economic activities agglomerate more than others? And, why does the agglomeration of some economic activities continue to increase despite recent developments in communication and transportation technologies? In this paper, we present evidence that complex economic activities concentrate more in large cities. We find this to be true for technologies, scientific publications, industries, and occupations. Using historical patent data, we show that the urban concentration of complex economic activities has been continuously increasing since 1850. These findings suggest that the increasing urban concentration of jobs and innovation might be a consequence of the growing complexity of the economy.
    Keywords: economic complexity, complexity, scaling, occupations, cities, agglomeration
    Date: 2018–07
  28. By: Durst, Michael C.
    Abstract: This is Chapter 3 of the book “Taxing Multinational Business in Lower-Income Countries: A Problem of Economics, Politics and Ethical Norms†. This chapter examines the evolution, over almost a century, of the body of international tax laws that continues to insulate BEPS-style planning arrangements from successful legal challenge in countries around the world.
    Keywords: Governance,
    Date: 2018
  29. By: Lane, Joseph
    Abstract: This paper investigates innovation and knowledge in the North Staffordshire Potteries during the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. It evaluates new empirical evidence of formal and informal patterns of knowledge creation and dissemination in order to highlight tensions between forms of open knowledge sharing and the appropriation of returns to innovative activity. By presenting new patent data it shows that formal protection was not a widespread strategy in the industry. It uses patent specifications to determine what specific types of knowledge were, and could be, patented in the district, and by whom. A range of sources are used to demonstrate evidence of innovation and knowledge appropriation outside of the patent system. The paper identifies distinct types of knowledge in the industry and shows how differences in these led to a range of strategies being employed by potters, with the role of secrecy highlighted as a particularly prevalent and effective strategy.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution; Intellectual Property; Patents; Innovation; Earthenware; Industrial District; Technology; Knowledge
    JEL: D83 L61 N63 N73 N91 O34
    Date: 2018–07
  30. By: Roger Scruton (University of Oxford [Oxford])
    Abstract: A few decades ago a new kind of leftist thinker has emerged —one who clothes his revolutionary zeal in a layer of irony, half-dismissing his own impractical idealism as though speaking through the face paint of a clown. Under this framework, this article analyzes and evaluates the phenomenon of pop-psychoanalytic Stalinism by Slavoj Žižek.
    Abstract: Desde hace unas décadas ha surgido un nuevo tipo de pensador izquierdista: uno que viste su celo revolucionario en una capa de ironía, medio despreciando su propio idealismo impráctico, como si hablara a través de la pintura facial de un payaso. Bajo este marco, en este artículo se analiza y evalúa el fenómeno del estalinismo pop-psicoanalítico de Slavoj Žižek.
    Date: 2016–12–05
  31. By: Kelly, Morgan (University College Dublin, CAGE and CEPR); Cormac ´O Grada (University College Dublin and CAGE)
    Abstract: Although urban growth historically depended on large inflows of migrants, little is known of the process of migration in the era before railways. Here we use detailed data for Paris on women arrested for prostitution in the 1760s, or registered as prostitutes in the 1830s and 1850s; and of men holding identity cards in the 1790s, to examine patterns of female and male migration. We supplement these with data on all women and men buried in 1833. Migration was highest from areas of high living standards, measured by literacy rates. Distance was a strong deterrent to female migration (reflecting limited employment opportunities) that falls with railways, whereas its considerably lower impact on men barely changes through the nineteenth century.
    Keywords: Migration, gravity, prostitution
    Date: 2018
  32. By: Sheremeta, Roman; Smith, Vernon
    Abstract: The Protestant Reformation is a vivid example of how religious transformation could set in motion institutional changes, leading to profound consequences for economic and political development. Although economists and other social scientists agree that there is a strong relation between the Reformation and economic growth, there is an active discussion as to what are the causal pathways connecting Protestantism to long-run economic success. We discuss the causal pathways that received substantial empirical support in academic literature. Some of them, such as “work ethic” and entrepreneurial spirit of Protestants, were originally suggested by Max Weber, while others, such as religious freedom and education, are deeply grounded in economic theory. More recently, other causal pathways have been suggested, such as social ethic, civil society, and institutional changes. We bring our view of these pathways.
    Keywords: Reformation, religion, economic development
    JEL: A13 B15 E02 Z12
    Date: 2017–05–07
  33. By: Sumner La Croix (Dept. of Economics, University of Hawai‘i-MÄ noa)
    Abstract: Fourie and Green construct estimates of the Khoikhoi population over the 1652-1780 period using benchmarks for the initial and terminal Khoi populations and benchmarks for the punctuated population declines from smallpox epidemics in 1713 and 1755. I review the evidence underlying each of the four population benchmarks and argue for a revised 1780 benchmark. Qualitative evidence also points to a higher rate of population decline between 1652 and 1723 and a smaller rate of decline between 1723 and 1780. Using the Fourie-Green methodology and adopting 3 of their 4 population benchmarks, I develop two revised estimates of the Khoi population to supplement the original Fourie and Green estimates.
    Keywords: Khoi, Khoikhoi, San, Cape Colony, smallpox, population decline
    JEL: N17 J10 J11
    Date: 2018–03
  34. By: Marcelo de Paiva Abreu (Departamento de Economia, PUC-Rio)
    Abstract: Este capítulo abrange o período entre as duas grandes crises da dívida externa: a que começou em 1928 – quando a política contracionista do Fed em resposta ao boom de Wall Steet provocou a interrupção dos fluxos de captal para a América Latina – e a de 1982, quando a crise da dívida mexicana provocou o fim do segundo ciclo de empréstimos externos voluntários à América Latina iniciado cerca de quinze anos antes. Entre estas duas grandes crises de balanços de pagamentos o que ocorria na América Latina era fortemente influenciado pelos eventos na economia mundial, mas a tendência de longo prazo era que estas economias fossem muito menos expostas à economia mundial do que haviam sido antes de 1930 e, mais ainda, antes de 1914.
    Date: 2017–07
  35. By: de Haas, Ralph (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Popov, A.
    Abstract: We study the impact of financial market development on industrial pollution in a large panel of countries and industries over the period 1974-2013. We find a strong positive impact of credit markets, but a strong negative impact of stock markets, on aggregate CO2 emissions per capita. Industry-level analysis shows that stock market development (but not credit market development) is associated with cleaner production processes in technologically "dirty" industries. These industries also produce more green patents as stock markets develop. Moreover, our results suggest that stock markets (credit markets) reallocate investment towards more (less) carbon-efficient sectors. Together, these findings indicate that the evolution of a country's financial structure helps explain the non-linear relationship between economic development and environmental quality documented in the literature.
    Keywords: financial development; industrial pollution; innovation; reallocation
    JEL: G10 O4 Q5
    Date: 2018
  36. By: Benny Moldovanu; Andreas Kleiner
    Abstract: We study killer amendments under various informational regimes and postulated voter behavior. In particular, the success chances of killer amendments are shown to differ across several well-known binary, sequential voting procedures. In light of this theory, we describe a remarkable instance of a motion-proposing and agenda-setting strategy by the Nazi party, NSDAP, during the Weimar Republic. Their purpose was to kill a motion of toleration of the new 1928 Government, and they were supported by their fiercest enemies on the far left, the communist party. The combined killer strategy was bound to be successful, but it ultimately failed because of another agenda-setting counter-move undertaken by the Reichstag president.
    Keywords: sequential voting, killer amendment, agenda-setting
    JEL: D72 N4
    Date: 2018–07
  37. By: Frank Adusah-Poku; William Bekoe
    Abstract: Empirically, results from time series and cross country studies have identified foreign capital inflows to play a pivotal role in the growth process of host countries. The goal of this article is to examine the impact of three of the four forms of foreign capital inflows (which include foreign aid, foreign direct investment and personal remittances) on economic growth in Ghana. The study employs the ARDL Bounds testing approach to cointegration on an annual time series data for Ghana from 1980-2012. The results of the study indicate that all the three forms of foreign capital inflows have positive and significant impacts on economic growth both in the short and long run. The results also show that of all the three forms of foreign capital inflows, foreign aid is the main driver of economic growth in Ghana both in the short and long run. The study recommends the design and implementation of good fiscal, monetary and trade policies to complement the flow foreign aid to the country for the realization of its full impact on growth.
    Keywords: Economic growth, foreign capital inflows, ARDL, Ghana.
    JEL: C1 F43 N17
    Date: 2018–06–07

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.