nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒07‒23
38 papers chosen by

  1. Spinning their Wheels: A Reply to Jane Humphries and Benjamin Schneider By Robert C. Allen
  2. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I By Lopez, Jose A.; Mitchener, Kris James
  3. The random character of the financial fluctuation (1930 -1960): Construction and polysemy of a research object By Thomas Delcey
  4. Robert J. Gordon and the introduction of the natural rate hypothesis in the Keynesian framework By Aurélien Goutsmedt; Goulven Rubin
  5. Sraffa’s Silenced Revival of the Classical Economists and of Marx. By Guglielmo Chiodi
  6. Antiquity in the Middle Ages: Literature, Power, Law By Aurov, Oleg; Zorin, Andrey
  7. Lessons from the History of European EMU By Chris Kirrane
  8. Standard Budgets in Spanish Economic History: a User’s Guide to Sources and Methods By Francesco Olivanti
  9. Countries, economy and markets: Analysis of hisbah institution and its contribution to Al-Mawardi perspective By Nashihah, Faidatun
  10. Nutrition in Interwar Britain: A Possible Resolution of the Healthy or Hungry 1930s Debate? By Gazeley, Ian; Newell, Andrew T.; Reynolds, Kevin; Rufrancos, Hector Gutierrez
  11. Change of Ideas About the Political Community in the Ussr During the Cold War and Their Influence on Soviet Culture By Kukulin, Ilya
  12. Circle of Fortune: The Long Term Impact of Western Customs Institutions in China By Gan Jin
  13. Human Capital Formation during the First Industrial Revolution: Evidence from the Use of Steam Engines By de Pleijt, Alexandra; Nuvolari, Alessandro; Weisdorf, Jacob
  14. What’s in the annual database of Global Wine Markets, 1835 to 2016? By Kym Anderson; Vicente Pinilla
  15. Endogenous Growth and Entropy By Tiago Neves Sequeira; Pedro Mazeda Gil; Óscar Afonso
  16. The evolution of water governance in France from the 1960s: disputes as major drivers for radical changes within a consensual framework By Marine Colon; Sophie Richard; Pierre-Alain Roche
  17. Technological changes and population growth: the role of land in England By Claire Loupias; Bertrand Wigniolle
  18. Efficient Market Hypothesis, Eugene Fama and Paul Samuelson: A reevaluation By Thomas Delcey
  19. Quantitative analysis on the disparity of regional economic development in China and its evolution from 1952 to 2000 By Jianhua Xu; Nanshan Ai; Yan Lu; Yong Chen; Yiying Ling; Wenze Yue
  20. Threats to scientific progress, past and present By Alessandro Iaria; Carlo Schwarz; Fabian Waldinger
  21. Energy, knowledge, and demo-economic development in the long run: a unified growth model By Victor Court; Emmanuel Bovari
  22. The age of mass migration in Latin America By Blanca Sánchez-Alonso
  23. Liquidity Traps and Large-Scale Financial Crises By Giovanni Caggiano; Efrem Castelnuovo; Olivier Damette; Antoine Parent; Giovanni Pellegrino
  25. Secular and Religious Culture in Russia in the Xix - Early Xx Centuries: The Conflict of Values on the Eve of the Era of Revolutions By Agadzhanyan, Alexander; Razdyakonov, Vladislav; Bolkunova, Svetlana
  26. On why gender employment equality in Britain has stalled since the early 1990s By Razzu, Giovanni; Singleton, Carl; Mitchell, Mark
  27. The long-term outcomes of refugees: tracking the progress of the East African Asians By Jake Anders; Simon Burgess; Jonathan Portes
  28. Russian-French Relations of the Era of Nicholas I and Louis-Philippe: Historical Lessons By Tanshina, Natalia
  29. Gravity and Migration before Railways: Evidence from Parisian Prostitutes and Revolutionaries By Morgan Kelly; Cormac Ó Gráda
  30. The Old and New Forms of Political Filmmaking in Turkey By Asl? Daldal
  31. Sociocultural Modeling of New Communities in the Theater of the XX-XXI Centuries By Zolotukhin, Valeriy; Liderman, Yulia; Sklez, Varvara
  32. Forecasting activity at Etla in 1971–2018 By Kotilainen, Markku
  33. Of Mice and Merchants: Trade and Growth in the Iron Age By Jan David Bakker; Stephan Maurer; Jörn-Steffen Pischke; Ferdinand Rauch
  34. Testing for causality between FDI and economic growth using heterogeneous panel data By Chanegriha, Melisa; Stewart, Chris; Tsoukis, Christopher
  35. Tributación sin representación: la democracia argentina desde 1983 By Jorge M. Streb
  36. Entrepreneurship Culture, Knowledge Spillovers, and the Growth of Regions By Michael, Stuetzer; David, Audretsch; Martin, Obschonka; Samuel, Gosling; Jason, Rentfrow; Jeff, Potter
  37. Assessing monetary policy targeting regimes for small open economies By Harsha Paranavithana; Leandro Magnusson; Rod Tyers
  38. The persistence of the gender earnings gap: cohort trends and the role of education in twelve countries By Eyal Bar-Haim; Louis Chauvel; Janet Gornick; Anne Hartung

  1. By: Robert C. Allen
    Abstract: Abstract Jane Humphries and Benjamin Schneider have assembled several large data bases of spinners’ production and wages that they believe disprove my view that high wages led to mechanization in eighteenth century England. This paper examines their data and shows that they have little value in understanding the incentives to mechanize. They collected thousands of observations of the earnings of women, but they do not know how many hours the spinners worked, so the data fail to establish whether their wage per hour (the relevant variable) was high or low. Another large sample of evidence concerned the production per day of spinners, but this information was mainly derived from schools and charity programs whose participants were selected because they were unproductive–so valid inferences about the productivity of women in general cannot be derived from these data. In addition, I present new evidence that substantiates my earlierestimates of productivity and earnings. The High Wage Hypothesis is unimpaired by the critique of Humphries and Schneider.
    Keywords: industrial revolution, technical change, induced innovation
    JEL: N13 N22 N63 O31
    Date: 2018–07–12
  2. By: Lopez, Jose A. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Mitchener, Kris James (Santa Clara University)
    Abstract: Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. Impulse response functions show that increased uncertainty caused a rise in inflation contemporaneously and for a few months afterward in GAPH, but this effect was absent or much more limited for the other European countries in our sample. Our results suggest that elevated economic uncertainty directly affected inflation dynamics and the incidence of hyperinflation during the interwar period.
    JEL: E31 E63 F31 F33 F41 F51 G15 N14
    Date: 2018–05–09
  3. By: Thomas Delcey (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The historical construction of modern financial economics has been widely analyzed autonomously from the rest of the economic thought. Hence, an unanswered question is how financial markets become a specific topic of research distinct from the rest of economics research and requiring its own subfield in the second half of the 20 th century. The present article aims to take a first step to answer this issue. We analyzed the construction of one of the main and the earlier object of research in financial economics: the Random Character of Financial Fluctuation (RCFF). We show that the RCFF has been understood in two different ways: (a) a former approach that focuses on constant patterns and denies the random fluctuation as an object itself, (b) a new approach that focuses on the explanation of the random fluctuation itself. We conclude that the second approach will prevail after the 1960s in financial economics.
    Date: 2018–05–16
  4. By: Aurélien Goutsmedt (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Chaire Energie et Prospérité); Goulven Rubin (LEM - Lille 2)
    Abstract: This article studies the dissemination of the Natural Rate of Unemployment Hypothesis (NRH) in macroeconomics during the 1970s, by studying the reaction of Robert J. Gordon to the argument of Milton Friedman (1968). In the early 1970s, Gordon displayed an empirical opposition to the NRH, arguing that the estimated parameter on expected inflation was below one, meaning that the adjustment of inflation in wages was not total. Confronting to new data and to the rise of inflation, Gordon adopted the NRH after 1973. Nevertheless the adoption anticipated any empirical proof of a parameter close to one. We explain that this conversion was due to Friedman's influence on Gordon, but also to the fact it did not prevent Gordon to support active stabilization policies. The article shows how a complex explanation of the 1960s and 1970s inflation was little by little replaced by the simpler accelerationist Phillips Curve. It enables to understand the dissemination of this particular Phillips Curve, relying on the NRH, as a process mainly led by economists close to the Keynesian framework
    Keywords: Expectations; Natural Rate of Unemployment; Phillips Curve; Stagflation
    JEL: B22 E12 E31
    Date: 2018–04
  5. By: Guglielmo Chiodi (Sapienza University of Rome (IT))
    Abstract: The standpoint of the old classical economists as well as of Marx “has been submerged and forgotten since the advent of the ‘marginal’ method” – to borrow Sraffa’s own words. The neoclassical (or ‘marginal’) paradigm, in fact, triumphantly dominated over the twentieth century (and is still dominating even now). A serious step towards the rehabilitation of the paradigm of the old classical economists was made by Sraffa (1951) with his remarkable ‘Introduction’ to Ricardo’s Principles, his seminal 1960 book Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities (PCMC) followed a few years later, as a logical completion of his long-standing work. The paper here proposed argues that Sraffa’s 1960 contribution has so far been mainly interpreted and used as a highly powered tool for destroying the foundations of neoclassical theory from a logical point of view, with the confident belief that attacking the logical side of the theory would have been sufficient to bring about its definite dismissal, which, instead, did not happen. As a consequence of all this, the revival of the classical economists and of Marx – which is one of the most characterizing feature of Sraffa’s 1960 contribution – was automatically silenced and this very fact precluded Sraffa’s theoretical framework from being used in a constructive way as a real alternative ‘vision’ to that proposed by the neoclassical market-centered paradigm. The aim of the paper is to underscore the crucial importance of Sraffa’s revival referred to above, by emphasizing its usefulness in providing a genuine alternative perspective and a radically different representation of the economy, compared with that provided by neoclassical theory. An attempt will be made to show the main features of the Sraffian framework in providing such an alternative ‘vision’ which, it will be argued, is now much needed, not least for suggesting far more sensible alternative economic policies than those so far pursued in the ceaseless turmoil of present day world economies.
    Keywords: Adam Smith, Ricardo, Marx, Sraffa.
    JEL: A10 B12 B14 B24 B51
    Date: 2018–07
  6. By: Aurov, Oleg (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zorin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The work is devoted to the problem of forms and methods of reception of ancient heritage in medieval Western and Eastern Europe. In the first case, the medieval states of the Iberian Peninsula (mainly Castile and Leon) act as the object of study, in the second - the Russian state from the era of Ancient Russia to the Moscow Kingdom of the XVI - XVII centuries. The presentation of the material is organized according to a chronological and historical-geographical principle. Four sections of the work are devoted to the role of the Roman heritage in the formation of medieval Castilian historiography during the reign of King Alfonso X of the Wise (section 1), analysis of the forms of interpretation in the domestic historiography of the role of the ancient heritage and its influence on the formation of medieval forms of social and political organization on the example of the scientific heritage of the outstanding Soviet medievalist Alexander Rafailovich Korsunsky (1914-1980) (section 2), the problems of the influence of the ancient heritage on the formation of the medieval literature as in the Latin West (section 3) and the study of the religious and cultural perspective of the formation and development of medieval Russian statehood (from Ancient Russia to the Moscow Kingdom), taking into account the wide external historical, cultural and legal context (section 4).
    Date: 2018–06
  7. By: Chris Kirrane
    Abstract: This paper examines the history of previous examples of EMU from the viewpoint that state actors make decisions about whether to participate in a monetary union based on rational self-interest concerning costs and benefits to their national economies. Illustrative examples are taken from nineteenth century German, Italian and Japanese attempts at monetary integration with early twentieth century ones from the Latin Monetary Union and the Scandinavian Monetary Union and contemporary ones from the West African Monetary Union and the European Monetary System. Lessons learned from the historical examples will be used to identify issues that could arise with the move towards closer EMU in Europe.
    Date: 2018–05
  8. By: Francesco Olivanti
    Abstract: In this paper the author documents a near absence of household budget microdata in the sources for nineteenth century Spain, both published and archival. The sources do however contain a rich set of standard budgets, which can contribute to a better understanding of the history of Spanish living standards. The paper is divided in three parts: first, the author describes standard budgets and their usefulness for cliometricians; secondly, he traces their history in the Spanish sources; finally, he sketches a few applications to issues in the period 1850-1905. The latter analysis suggests: a) a substantial variation in cost of living and expenditure patterns across provinces, sectors, and socioeconomic status; b) a sensible impact of alternative CPI weights on national price indices; c) poverty lines ranging between 1,110 and 1,300 euros per year – in 2016 prices – for the years 1850 and 1856.
    Keywords: cost of living, economic history, household budgets, living standards, poverty, prices, Spain, standard budgets, wellbeing
    JEL: C10 C61 D12 I31 I32 N01 N30 Z18
    Date: 2018–07–03
  9. By: Nashihah, Faidatun
    Abstract: The capitalist economy and the socialist economic history can not actually manifest even the distorted performance associated with economy and nothingness. This article uses a content analysis and historical methods in revealing the Islamic economic history of the issues.
    Keywords: country, market, economy, hisbah, Islamic economy
    JEL: B0 B31 D4 P0
    Date: 2018–03–01
  10. By: Gazeley, Ian (University of Sussex); Newell, Andrew T. (University of Sussex); Reynolds, Kevin (University of Brighton); Rufrancos, Hector Gutierrez (University of Stirling)
    Abstract: This paper re-examines energy and nutritional available to British working-class households in the 1930s using the individual household expenditure and consumption data derived from the 1937/8 Ministry of Labour household expenditure survey and the 1938/9 individual dietary data collected by the Rowett Research Institute. We conclude that for working households, energy and nutritional availability improved significantly compared with current estimates of availability before the First World War. For unemployed headed households, and female headed households in employment, the situation was much worse with energy and nutritional availability at similar levels to households that would be described as destitute at the turn of the Twentieth Century. Finally, we examine the impact of state interventions to improve diet and nutrition and conclude that these made a difference, but other than the case of calcium, they did not represent a decisive intervention, as many households in receipt of free school meals and milk did not have sufficient nutrients available in their diets to meet modern dietary standards.
    Keywords: nutrition, Britain, 1930s, working class
    JEL: I30 N34
    Date: 2018–06
  11. By: Kukulin, Ilya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: History of the Cold War is obviously connected with tendencies of isolationism, especially if speaking of the USSR. However, one may suppose that there is an important but underresearched aspect of the Soviet isolationism: namely, how it influenced cultural dynamics in the USSR and what were its mental foundations taken for granted; particularly, one needs to discuss what were the main similarities and differences between “cold war” isolationism and policy of a “besieged fortress” that was realized in the USSR starting with the late 1920s. This paper is focused on the traits and historical evolution of the Soviet isolationism basing on the two methodological approaches: studies of governmentality and study of imagined community’s discursive borders, in other words, the Soviet isolationism is studied here as a specific type of social and political imagination. If revisiting the Soviet practices of isolationism on this level, one can see that mental structures caused by the Cold War considerably informed Soviet social imagination and remain to be influential in the post-Soviet culture. This conclusion is founded with a short discussion on Sergey Lukianenko’s series of fantasy novels on “Watches” (1998--2004), one of the most successful projects in the post-Soviet mass culture.
    Date: 2018–06
  12. By: Gan Jin (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)
    Abstract: This paper studies the persistent impact of good institutions on economic development in China. By exploiting a British-driven institutional switch in part of China's customs stations in 1902, I find that counties that were more affected by the British customs institutions are also better developed today. Moreover, I show that the institutional switch was exogenous to the pre-colonial development, and I provide different estima- tion models to reveal a robust and causal relationship between good institutions and economic development.
    Keywords: Institutions, Economic development, Treaty ports, Chinese Maritime Customs Service (CMCS), China
    JEL: N15 O10 P51
    Date: 2018–07
  13. By: de Pleijt, Alexandra; Nuvolari, Alessandro; Weisdorf, Jacob
    Abstract: We examine the effect of technical change on human capital formation during England's Industrial Revolution. Using the number of steam engines installed by 1800 as a synthetic indicator of technological change, and occupational statistics to measure working skills (using HISCLASS), we establish a positive correlation between the use of steam engines and the share of skilled workers at the county level. We use exogenous variation in carboniferous rock strata (containing coal to fuel the engines) to show that the effect was causal. While technological change stimulated the formation of working skills, it had an overall negative effect on the formation of primary education, captured by literacy and school enrolment rates. It also led to higher gender inequality in literacy.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; education; Human Capital; Industrialisation; Steam Engines; Technological change
    JEL: J82 N33 O14 O33
    Date: 2018–06
  14. By: Kym Anderson; Vicente Pinilla
    Abstract: This paper documents a new, unique annual database of global wine markets covering 1835 to 2016. The database expands enormously the opportunities for conducting studies on wine production, consumption and trade from an historical perspective for the world as a whole and for most relevant countries. The combination of this basic information with other economic variables such as real GDP, population, total merchandise trade, total crop area and the consumption of other alcoholic drinks has enabled us to generate myriad derived variables that are helpful for comparative analyses as well as for studying the two waves of globalization.
    Keywords: Wine History, Historical Databases, Economic History, Wine Economics
    JEL: N50 N70 Q13 Q17
    Date: 2018–07
  15. By: Tiago Neves Sequeira (Univ. Beira Interior and CEFAGE-UBI); Pedro Mazeda Gil (University of Porto, Faculty of Economics, and CEF.UP); Óscar Afonso (University of Porto, Faculty of Economics, CEF.UP, and CEFAGE-UBI)
    Abstract: This paper offers novel insights regarding the role of complexity in both the transitional and the long-run dynamics of the economy. We devise an endogenous growth model using the concept of entropy as a state-dependent complexity effect. This allows us to gradually diminish scale effects as the economy develops along the transitional dynamics, which conciliates evidence on the existence of scale effects in history with evidence of no or reduced scale effects in today’s economies. We show that empirical evidence supports entropy as a “first principle” operator of the complexity effect. The model features endogenous growth, with null or small (positive or negative) scale effects, or stagnation, in the long run. These different long-run possibilities have also policy implications. Then, we show that the model can replicate well the take-off after the industrial revolution and the productivity slowdown in the second half of the XXth century. Future scenarios based on in-sample calibration are discussed, and may help to explain (part of) the growth crises affecting the current generation.
    Keywords: endogenous economic growth, complexity effects, entropy
    JEL: O10 O30 O40 E22
  16. By: Marine Colon (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Sophie Richard (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - IRSTEA - Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture - CIHEAM - Centre International des Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Pierre-Alain Roche (CGEDD - Conseil Général de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable)
    Abstract: This paper provides a synthetic presentation of French water governance and its evolution since the 1960s. Through this French experience, it discusses the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) water governance cycle showing disputes as the main drivers of change. France has been a pioneer in introducing water river basin management some 50 years ago. It is also noted for its water services management by local authorities, leaving a significant role to private and public companies. But French water governance has not been frozen since the 1960s and continues to change radically within a framework based upon its unique history.
    Keywords: water governance,OECD governance principles,water supply and sanitation
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Claire Loupias (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne); Bertrand Wigniolle (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper emphasizes the role of land and technological progress in economic and population growth. The model is calibrated using historical data on England concerning both economic growth rate and the factor shares (land, capital, and labor) in total income, as well as mortality tables. It is able to reproduce the dynamics of population since 1760. Moreover, it is possible to disentangle the relative effect of technical changes and mortality fall on the evolution of population. We conduct a counterfactual analysis eliminating successively the increase in life expectancy and the technological bias. With no increase in life expectancy, population would have been respectively 10% and 30% lower in 1910 and in the long run. The figures would have been respectively 40% and 60% lower, with no bias in the technical progress. Finally, population would have been 45% smaller in 1910 and 70% smaller in the long run, neutralizing both the effect of life expectancy and technological bias. So the major part of population increase is due to the technological bias evolution between land and capital.
    Keywords: endogenous fertility,land
    Date: 2018–05
  18. By: Thomas Delcey (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Two main claims are associated with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). First of all, the price changes are nearly random in the financial markets. Secondly, the prices reflect the economic fundamentals. The relation between these two claims remains unclear in the actual literature. The purpose of this article is to show that this confusion is not new but began during the theoretical construction of EMH in the 1960s. The analysis is based on the reading of their 1965 papers and on the archives of Paul Samuelson from the Paul A. Samuelson Papers, David M. Rubenstein Rare Book Manuscript Library at Duke University.
    Date: 2018–05–07
  19. By: Jianhua Xu; Nanshan Ai; Yan Lu; Yong Chen; Yiying Ling; Wenze Yue
    Abstract: Domestic and foreign scholars have already done much research on regional disparity and its evolution in China, but there is a big difference in conclusions. What is the reason for this? We think it is mainly due to different analytic approaches, perspectives, spatial units, statistical indicators and different periods for studies. On the basis of previous analyses and findings, we have done some further quantitative computation and empirical study, and revealed the inter-provincial disparity and regional disparity of economic development and their evolution trends from 1952-2000. The results shows that (a) Regional disparity in economic development in China, including the inter-provincial disparity, inter-regional disparity and intra-regional disparity, has existed for years; (b) Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient have revealed a similar dynamic trend for comparative disparity in economic development between provinces in China. From 1952 to 1978, except for the "Great Leap Forward" period, comparative disparity basically assumes a upward trend and it assumed a slowly downward trend from 1979 to1990. Afterwards from 1991 to 2000 the disparity assumed a slowly upward trend again; (c) A comparison between Shanghai and Guizhou shows that absolute inter-provincial disparity has been quite big for years; and (d) The Hurst exponent (H=0.5) in the period of 1966-1978 indicates that the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development showed a random characteristic, and in the Hurst exponent (H>0.5) in period of 1979-2000 indicates that in this period the evolution of the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development in China has a long-enduring characteristic.
    Date: 2018–06
  20. By: Alessandro Iaria; Carlo Schwarz; Fabian Waldinger
    Abstract: A US boycott of Chinese researchers, as threatened by the Trump administration, could stifle scientific progress and technological innovation. That is the concern of Alessandro Iaria, Carlo Schwarz and Fabian Waldinger, whose research looks at the period between 1914 and 1926, when Allied scientists were cut off from their peers in Central countries - with damaging consequences for world science. Their study reveals how the interruption of international knowledge flows, as a result of the First World War and its aftermath, led to stark declines in the production of research deemed worthy of a Nobel prize nomination. Barriers to international scientific co-operation slow down the production of basic science and its application in new technologies. In contrast, policies that widen access to frontier research could benefit society beyond the confines of science itself.
    Keywords: frontier knowledge, scientific production, international knowledge flows, WW1
    JEL: O3 N3 N4 O31 O5 N30 N40 J44 I23
    Date: 2018–07
  21. By: Victor Court (CERES-ERTI - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche sur l'Environnement et la Societé / Environmental Research and Teaching Institute - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier); Emmanuel Bovari (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Institut Louis Bachelier)
    Abstract: This article provides a knowledge-based and energy-centered unified growth model of the economic transition from limited to sustained growth. We model the transition between: (i) a pre-modern organic regime defined by limited growth in per capita output, high fertility, low levels of human capital, technological progress generated by learning-by-doing, and rare GPT arrivals; and (ii) a modern fossil regime characterized by sustained growth of per capita output, low fertility, high levels of human capital, technological progress generated by profit-motivated R\&D, and increasingly frequent GPT arrivals. The associated energy transition results from the endogenous shortage of renewable resources availability, and the arrival of new GPTs which redirect technological progress towards the exploitation of previously unprofitable exhaustible energy. Calibrations of the model are currently in progress: (i) to replicate the historical experience of England from 1560 to 2010; and (ii) to compare the different trajectories of Western Europe and Eastern Asia.
    Keywords: Unified Growth Theory,Useful Knowledge,Energy Transition,Demography
    Date: 2018–01–31
  22. By: Blanca Sánchez-Alonso (Dept. of Economics, Universidad CEU-San Pablo, Madrid)
    Abstract: The experiences of Latin American countries are not fully incorporated into current debates concerning the age of mass migration even though 13 million Europeans migrated to the region between 1870 and 1930. This paper draws together different aspects of the Latin America immigration experience. Its main objective is to rethink the role of European migration to the region, addressing several major questions in the economics of migration: whether immigrants were positively selected from their sending countries, how immigrants assimilated into the host economies, the role of immigration policies, and the long-run effects of immigration. Immigrants came from the economically backward areas of Southern and Eastern Europe, yet their adjustment to the host labour markets in Latin America seems to have been successful. The possibility of rapid social upgrading made Latin America attractive for European immigrants. Migrants were positively selected from origin according to literacy. The most revealing aspect of new research is showing the positive long-run effects that European immigrants had in Latin American countries. The political economy of immigration policies deserves new research, particularly for Brazil and Cuba. The case of Argentina shows a more complex scenario than the classic representation of landowners constantly supporting an open-door policy.
    Keywords: Historical migration, Latin America, Immigrants’ selection, Socioeconomic impact.
    JEL: N36 O15 J61
    Date: 2018–07
  23. By: Giovanni Caggiano (University of Padova); Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova); Olivier Damette (BETA-CNRS); Antoine Parent (Sciences Po Lyon); Giovanni Pellegrino (University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: This paper estimates a nonlinear Threshold-VAR to investigate if a Keynesian liquidity trap due to a speculative motive was in place in the U.S. Great Depression and the recent Great Recession. We find clear evidence in favor of a breakdown of the liquidity effect after an unexpected increase in M2 in the 1921–1940 period. This evidence, which is consistent with the Keynesian view on a liquidity trap, is shown to be state contingent. In particular, it emerges only when a speculative regime identified by high realizations of the Dow Jones index is considered. A standard linear framework is shown to be ill-suited to test the hypothesis of a Keynesian liquidity trap. An investigation performed with the same data for the period 1991–2010 confirms the presence of a liquidity trap just in the speculative regime. This last result emerges significantly only when we consider the federal funds rate as the policy instrument and we model the Divisia M2 measure of liquidity.
    Keywords: Keynesian liquidity trap, Threshold-VAR, Monetary and financial cliometrics, Great Depression, Great Recession
    JEL: B22 C52 E52 N12 N22
    Date: 2018–06
  24. By: Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Andrew Johnston (University of Sheffield [Sheffield]); Armand Hatchuel (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Shareholders are in law excluded from management, unless they are appointed as directors or employed as managers. But, at the same time they keep control rights. The separation is therefore incomplete and this is an issue when managerial autonomy is considered as a condition for stakeholder management and corporate social responsibility. Past research on the separation between ownership and control has extensively studied the distinction between shareowners and directors, but less the distinction between directors and managers. In this article, we investigate why management has emerged as a distinctive function, and how the law receives it. Our study shows that it only has accommodated it but overlooked the rationales behind the historical emergence of management. The lack of conceptualization of the management in law allowed reforms in the second half of the twentieth century that have weakened managerial discretion, and the separation of ownership and control. Our article thus calls for further research in law and management to reappraise the status of managers.
    Keywords: Management history,Manager,company law,corporate governance,innovation
    Date: 2018–06–20
  25. By: Agadzhanyan, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Razdyakonov, Vladislav (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Bolkunova, Svetlana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The present study, which relates the connection between the discourse "science and religion" and projects on socio-political change, also contributes to modern scientific discussions about the causes of the Russian Revolution of 1917. One aspect of the current debate is the social dimension of revolutionary activity in the context of disputes about the nature of secularization as a concept and phenomenon of European culture. An analysis of the spectrum of interpretations of the relationship between "science" and "religion" makes it possible to raise the question of the meaning of the discourse "science and religion" as an ideological factor of the secularization of the intellectual culture of the Russian Empire.
    Date: 2018–06
  26. By: Razzu, Giovanni; Singleton, Carl; Mitchell, Mark
    Abstract: Using over four decades of British micro data, this paper asks why progress in closing the gender employment rate gap has stalled since the early 1990s. We find that how partner characteristics affected women’s likelihood of employment explain most of the gap’s shift in trend. Instead, changes to the structure of employment both between and within industry sectors impacted the gap at approximately constant rates throughout the period. There is evidence that continuing improvements in women’s employment when they had children or higher qualifications worked towards narrowing the gap, even after progress overall had stalled.
    Keywords: gender employment gaps; structural change; micro time series dataset
    JEL: E24 J16 J21
    Date: 2018–05–01
  27. By: Jake Anders (University College London); Simon Burgess (University of Bristol); Jonathan Portes (King's College London)
    Abstract: Refugees are often perceived as an economic "burden", as the current debate on the European refugee crisis illustrates. But there is little quantitative evidence on the medium-term outcomes of refugees in the UK. We fill this gap by looking at the case of "East African Asians" who arrived as refugees in the late 1960s and early 1970s. We use data from the UK Census to describe their economic outcomes forty years later. We show that their outcomes are at least as good as the population average, with the younger cohort performing better. Refugee status, as distinct from ethnicity or immigrant status, appears to have a positive impact.
    Keywords: Migration, Refugees, East African Asians
    JEL: J15
    Date: 2018–06–01
  28. By: Tanshina, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The work is dedicated to the comparative analysis of the state activities of Emperor Nicholas I and King Louis-Philippe of Orleans, as well as to the relationships between Russia and France during the reign of Nicholas I and the existence of the regime of the July monarchy in France (1830-1848). These years were one of the most difficult periods of the relationships, which was due to the rejection of Nicholas I the regime, caused by the July Revolution. At the same time, it was the first experience of interaction and peaceful coexistence of autocratic Russia and liberal France. The article analyzes the interaction of states with different political systems and ideologies in the conditions of a multipolar world within the framework of the "European concert" and the Vienna system. The object of the study is Russian-French relations during the reign of Emperor Nicholas I and King Louis-Philip of Orleans, mutual representations and stereotypes of mutual perception, intercultural dialogue between countries with different political regimes.
    Date: 2018–06
  29. By: Morgan Kelly (University College Dublin, CAGE and CEPR); Cormac Ó Gráda (University College Dublin and CAGE)
    Abstract: Although urban growth historically depended on large inflows of migrants, little is known of the process of migration in the era before railways. Here we use detailed data for Paris on women arrested for prostitution in the 1760s, or registered as prostitutes in the 1830s and 1850s; and of men holding identity cards in the 1790s, to examine patterns of female and male migration. We supplement these with data on all women and men buried in 1833. Migration was highest from areas of high living standards, measured by literacy rates. Distance was a strong deterrent to female migration (reflecting limited employment opportunities) that falls with railways, whereas its considerably lower impact on men barely changes through the nineteenth century.
    Keywords: Migration, gravity, prostitution.
    Date: 2018–06
  30. By: Asl? Daldal (Yildiz Technical University, IIBF, Dept of Politics)
    Abstract: There are many ways of analysing films from a ?political? perspective. One common approach is to look at the ?content? of the film and classify it as ?political? if the film talks about a certain political event. This is an insufficent way of looking at films, as ?politics? can involve not only the ?content? of the film, but its very ?form?, philosophical depth, socio-political background, production conditions, audience relationship, marketing and so on. That?s why ?independent? cinema today is almost synonymous with ?progressive? or ?political? cinema even though the film may not center around an obvious political event. This paper aims at examining the ?political cinema? of Turkey starting after the 1960 Coup d?Etat. The short lived ?Social Realist? Movement had an overt political overtone as well as Y?lmaz Güney, who after 1970, made films focusing on the agonies of the working class. Reminiscent of Italian neo-realism with their minimalist styles, mostly non professional or lesser known actors and on location shooting, these films were clearer examples of a ?political? cinema in Turkey. After 1990s though, a novel look at ?socially engaged? cinema started to emerge as independent films replaced the old ?Ye?ilçam? productions. Ye?im Ustao?lu, Dervi? Zaim, Nuri Bilge Ceylan and Zeki Demirkubuz were among the most prominent filmmakers who had an ?indirect? relationship with politics. Nuri Bilge Ceylan, for example, hardly had anything overtly political in his films although his extreme emphasis on avoiding any contact with the ?film market? clearly indicated a subtle political choice. After the first ?wave? of independen cinema in Turkey which culminated with the international success of Distant at Cannes in 2003, a second wave emerged with younger filmmakers (including many female directors) who focused on the ?micro? political discourses of those marginalised from the ?decent? life of the ?neo-bourgeois?. Among them, Hüseyin Karabey, Orhan Eskiköy, Özgür Do?an, Pelin Esmer, Belmin Söylemez reflected those who had an ?accented? (in Hamid Naficy?s terms) lifestyles that, in a postmodern guise, pronounced a new political discourse mostly based on ?identity? problems.
    Keywords: Independent Cinema, Turkish Cinema, Political Cinema
    JEL: Y90
    Date: 2017–07
  31. By: Zolotukhin, Valeriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Liderman, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sklez, Varvara (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The object of the study are experimental non-dramatic theatrical forms. In the history of theatrical art, theatrical amateur performance, the art of performance, we are interested in such artistic forms in which the dramatic structure of the underlying text is in dispute, and the artistic community is working to identify and master new forms of community. Non-dramatic forms of the theater are examined in the study by means of the sociology of art and cultural anthropology. Archival unpublished and published materials are involved in the work.
    Date: 2018–06
  32. By: Kotilainen, Markku
    Abstract: The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (Etla) started its business cycle forecasting activity in 1971. Forecasts have thus been published for almost half of a century. The foundations of forecasting have remained the same during this time. Some changes have, however, been implemented in the organization of the activity and in the tools used. In this memorandum the development of forecasting activity is described from its beginning. About twenty years the forecasts were produced by a matrix organization. The institute was divided into thematic research groups of which each produced the forecasts of its sector during the forecasting process. In 1989 a separate forecasting group was founded. At first, it was a part of a research program called ”forecasting activity”. Later, it was organized as a part of the research program ”macroeconomy, international economy and business cycles”. In the middle of the forecasting process have been the calculation framework based on the national accounts and the macroeconomic model of the institute. At first, these were integrated to each other. Nowadays they are separate. During the second half of the 1990s, the international macroeconomic model NiGEM was taken into use in forecasting and simulation of the international economy. Because Etla’s forecasts are detailed in terms of branches of industry, the institute’s input-output model is an important tool in producing the output forecasts. The main forecast publication is Suhdanne that has been published 2 times and occasionally even 4 times a year. In the 1990s the whole book was published in English, too, later just the extended summary. Since September 2016 Suhdanne is published also as an internet version, in addition to the paper one.
    Keywords: Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (Etla), forecasting, forecasting models
    JEL: E0 E17 E6
    Date: 2018–07–11
  33. By: Jan David Bakker (University of Oxford and CEP); Stephan Maurer (University of Konstanz and CEP); Jörn-Steffen Pischke (LSE and CEP); Ferdinand Rauch (University of Oxford and CEP)
    Abstract: We study the causal connection between trade and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the Phoenicians. We construct a measure of connectedness along the shores of the sea. This connectivity varies with the shape of the coast, the location of islands, and the distance to the opposing shore. We relate connectedness to local growth, which we measure using the presence of archaeological sites in an area. We find an association between better connected locations and archaeological sites during the Iron Age, at a time when sailors began to cross open water very routinely and on a big scale. We corroborate these findings at the level of the world.
    Keywords: Urbanization, locational fundamentals, trade
    JEL: F14 N7 O47
    Date: 2018–07–09
  34. By: Chanegriha, Melisa (Middlesex University); Stewart, Chris (Kingston University London); Tsoukis, Christopher (Keele University)
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between the ratio of FDI to GDP (FDIG)and economic growth (GDPG). We use innovative econometric methods which are based on the heterogeneous panel test of the Granger non-causality hypothesis based on the works of Hurlin (2004a), Fisher (1932, 1948) and Hanck (2013) using data from 136 developed and developing countries over the 1970-2006 period. According to the Hurlin and Fisher panel tests FDIG unambiguously Granger-causes GDPG for at least one country. However, theresults from these tests are ambiguous regarding whether GDPG Granger-causes FDIG for at least one country. Using Hanck’s (2013) panel test we are able to determine whether and for which countries there is Granger-causality. This test suggests that at most there are three countries (Estonia, Guyana and Poland) where FDIG Granger-causes GDPG and no countries where GDPG Granger-causes FDIG.
    Keywords: Granger-causality Tests; Panel Data; FDI; Economic Growth;
    JEL: C33 F21 F43 N10
    Date: 2018–05–23
  35. By: Jorge M. Streb
    Abstract: Desde 1983 se viola el principio constitucional de representación del pueblo: las provincias de Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Mendoza y Santa Fe, con una mayoría de los habitantes, tienen una minoría de representantes en la Cámara de Diputados. Además, no se cumple el mandato constitucional de que a partir de 1997 la coparticipación de impuestos se base en criterios objetivos, equitativos y solidarios: la provincia de Buenos Aires recibió un tercio de los recursos por habitante que recibieron las otras provincias en 2016, haciendo letra muerta del federalismo. Estas anomalías son legados de los gobiernos de facto que fueron conservadas por un Congreso no representativo. Se proponen dos reformas: (i) una representación proporcional a la población en la Cámara de Diputados, para acabar con un Congreso al margen de la Constitución Nacional donde los representantes de una minoría deciden cuánto tributar y cómo gastarlo; (ii) un régimen de coparticipación basado en un criterio objetivo, repartir los mismos recursos por habitante a todos los distritos: como sería devolutivo si todos aportaran lo mismo, es equitativo; como los distritos ricos aportarían más si hubiera disparidad de ingresos, es solidario.
    Keywords: H2, H7
    Date: 2018–07
  36. By: Michael, Stuetzer; David, Audretsch; Martin, Obschonka; Samuel, Gosling; Jason, Rentfrow; Jeff, Potter
    Abstract: An extensive literature has emerged in regional studies linking organization-based measures of entrepreneurship (e.g., self-employment, new start-ups) to regional economic performance. A limitation of the extant literature is that the measurement of entrepreneurship is not able to incorporate broader conceptual views, such as behaviour, of what actually constitutes entrepreneurship. This paper fills this gap by linking the underlying and also more fundamental and encompassing entrepreneurship culture of regions to regional economic performance. The empirical evidence suggests that those regions exhibiting higher levels of entrepreneurship culture tend to have higher employment growth. Robustness checks using causal methods confirm this finding.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Entrepreneurship Culture; Regional Development; Economic Growth
    JEL: L26 M13 N9 N91 O3 O31
    Date: 2018
  37. By: Harsha Paranavithana; Leandro Magnusson; Rod Tyers
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the performance of five monetary policy regimes in controlling macroeconomic volatility triggered by a variety of supply, demand and external shocks in small open economies. While the proposed macroeconomic model is generic, the application is to the case of Sri Lanka. The investigated regimes separately target the exchange rate, a monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, the CPI inflation rate and a Taylor composite of output gaps and inflation. The results suggest that inflation targeting offers the least macro-economic volatility overall. Consistent with earlier research and Mundell’s financial trilemma, its stabilising power is greatest under demand and external shocks, which have grown more prominent as product and financial markets have opened.
    Keywords: Macroeconomic volatility, Monetary policy, Mundell’s trilemma, Sri Lanka
    JEL: E47 E52 N15
    Date: 2018–07
  38. By: Eyal Bar-Haim; Louis Chauvel; Janet Gornick; Anne Hartung
    Abstract: Studying twelve countries over 30 years, we examine whether women’s educational expansion has translated into a closing gender earnings gap. As educational attainment is cohort-dependent, an Age-Period-Cohort analysis is most appropriate in our view. Using the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) data, we show that while in terms of attainment of tertiary education women have caught up and often even outperform men, substantial gender differences in earnings persist in all countries. These results are consistent with the composition of the top earnings decile. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition methods, we demonstrate that the role of education in explaining the gender earnings gap has been limited and even decreased over cohorts. Contrary, employment status as well as occupation explain a more substantial part in all countries. We conclude that earnings differences at levels far from gender equality likely also persist in the future, even if the “rise of women†in terms of education continues.
    Keywords: -gender gap, education, earnings, age-period-cohort analysis, Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition
    JEL: J7 N30
    Date: 2018–05

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.