nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒07‒09
48 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. African states and development in historical perspective: Colonial public finances in British and French West By Denis Cogneau; Yannick Dupraz; Sandrine Mesplé-Somps
  2. Russian Real Wages Before and After 1917: in Global Perspective By Robert Allen; Ekaterina Khaustova
  3. The development of Chinese accountingand bookkeeping before 1850:insights from the Tŏng Tài Shēngbusiness account books (1798-1850) By Yuan, Weipeng; Macve, Richard; Ma, Debin
  4. Ancient Roman Politics – Julius Caesar By Maria Sousa Galito
  5. Heights Across the Last 2000 Years in England By Gregori Galofré-VilÃ; Andrew Hinde; Aravinda Guntupalli
  6. Skill Selection and American Immigration Policy in the Interwar Period By Alexander A. J. Wulfers
  7. Independent Ireland in Comparative Perspective By Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  8. Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers By Becker, Sascha O.; Grosfeld, Irena; Grosjean, Pauline; Voigtländer, Nico; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  9. China, Europe and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980-1850 By Stephen Broadberry; Hanhui Guan; David Daokui Li
  10. Well-being Inequality in the Long Run By Leandro Prados de la Escosura
  11. Forced Migration and Human Capital : Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers By Becker, Sascha O.; Grosfeld, Irena; Grosjean, Pauline; Voigtländer, Nico; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  12. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I By Jose A. Lopez; Kris James Mitchener
  13. On Historical Household Budgets By Brian A'Hearn; Nicola Amendola; Giovanni Vecchi
  14. Wildcat bankers or political failure? The Irish financial pantomime, 1797-1826 By Kenny, Seán; Turner, John D.
  15. Wildcat Bankers or Political Failure? The Irish Financial Pantomime, 1797-1826 By Kenny, Seán; Turner, John D.
  16. On the economics of forced labour. Did the employment of Prisoners-of-War depress German coal mining productivity in World War I? By Tobias A. Jopp
  17. Two Great Trade Collapses: The Interwar Period & Great Recession Compared By Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  18. Representation of the people: Franchise extension and the "Sinn Féin election" in Ireland, 1918 By De Bromhead, Alan; Fernihough, Alan; Hargaden, Enda
  19. 'Economics' of prosperity: Why the dominant perspectives may be unhelpful to make sense of underdevelopment By Gupta, Avinash
  20. Technological change and labor market integration By Elisabeth Bublitz; Michael Wyrwich
  21. When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in interwar Britain By Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke; Alan de Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe
  22. Looking for work? Or looking for workers? Days and hours of work in London construction in the eighteenth century. By Judy Stephenson
  23. Rethinking Age-heaping, a Cautionary Tale From Nineteenth Century Italy By Brian A'Hearn; Alexia Delfino; Alessandro Nuvolari
  24. Introduction to the special issue: a new economic history of China By Mitchener, Kris James; Ma, Debin
  25. The anatomy of a trade collapse: The UK, 1929-33 By Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke; Alan de Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe
  26. Unreal Wages? A New Empirical Foundation for the Study of Living Standards and Economic Growth in England, 1260-1860 By Jane Humphries; Jacob Weisdorf
  27. The Market Turn: From Social Democracy to Market Liberalism By Avner Offer
  28. Fast Track to Growth? The Impact of Railway Access on Regional Economic Development in 19th Century Switzerland By Konstantin Buechel, Stephan Kyburz
  29. Growing, Shrinking and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development By Stephen Broadberry; John Wallis
  30. Working Moms, Childlessness, and Female Identity By Andreas Steinhauer
  31. Toddlers, teenagers & terminal heights: The determinants of adult male stature Flanders 1800-76 By Ewout Depauw; Deborah Oxley
  32. Revising England's Social Tables Once Again By Robert Allen
  33. Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s? By Qazi Haque; Nicolas Groshenny; Mark Weder
  34. Japan and the Great Divergence, 730-1874 By Stephen Broadberry; Jean-Pascal Bassino; Kyoji Fukao; Bishnupriya Gupta; Masanori Takashima
  35. The future of work a literature review By Balliester, Thereza.; Elsheikhi, Adam.
  36. Working Time, Dinner Time, Serving Time: Labour and Law in Industrialization By Douglas Hay
  37. Long-term Consequences of the Atomic Bombing in Hiroshima By Satoshi Shimizutani; Hiroyuki Yamada
  38. Real Wages and Skill Premiums during Economic Development in Latin America By Pablo Astorga Junquera
  39. The Bretton Woods Experience and ERM By Chris Kirrane
  40. The Strategies of Integration on the Textile Companies in the Meiji Period :A Case Study the Kyoto Cotton Flannel Co. Ltd By Taiki Kamei
  41. Children’s work and Wages, 1270-1860 By Sara Horrell; Jane Humphries
  42. The labor share in the service economy By Luis Díez Catalán
  43. L'aventure industrielle de la 4 CV Renault By Dominique Lejeune
  44. Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers By Michael D. Bordo; Klodiana Istrefi
  45. Are long-run output growth rates falling? By Ivan Mendieta-Munoz; Mengheng Li
  46. A Framework to Study the Role of Structural Transformation in Productivity Growth and Regional Convergence By Fukao, Kyoji; Paul, Saumik
  47. Evolution of Modern Business Cycles: Accounting for the Great Recession By Kehoe, Patrick J.; Midrigan, Virgiliu; Pastorino, Elena
  48. Historical Roots of Entrepreneurial Culture and Innovation Activity - An Analysis for German Regions By Michael Fritsch; Michael Wyrwich; Martin Obschonka

  1. By: Denis Cogneau (IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Yannick Dupraz (University of Warwick [Coventry]); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL - Paris Sciences et Lettres)
    Abstract: Why does it seem so difficultto build a sizeable developmenta state in Africa? Agrowing literature looks at the colonial roots of differences in economic development, often using the French/British difference as asource of variation to identify which features of the colonial pastmattered. We use historical archivestobuildanewdatasetofpublicfinancesin9Frenchand4Britishcoloniesof West Africa from 1900 to in dependence.Though we find some significant differences between French and British colonies, we conclude that over all patterns of public finances were similarin both empires. The most striking fact is the greatin crease in expenditure per capitain the last decades of colonization: it quadrupled between the end o World War II and independence. This increase inexpenditure was made possible partly by an increase incustoms revenue due to rising trade flows, but mostly by policy changes: netsubsidies from colonizers to their colonies became positive, while, within the colonies, direct and indirect taxation rates increased. We conclude that the last fifteen years of colonization area key period tounderstand colonial legacies.
    Keywords: Public finances,West Africa,state building,colonization
    Date: 2018–06
  2. By: Robert Allen; Ekaterina Khaustova
    Abstract: The paper measures real wages in St Petersburg, Moscow, and Kursk between 1853 and 1937 and compares them to real wages in Boston, Manchester, Bombay, and Cairo. Russian living standards grew little between 1853 and 1913 and were like Egypt and India. Wages in the UK and USA were 2.5 - 5 times greater. Real wages in Russia almost doubled between 1913 and 1928. When seen in a Russian perspective, this looks like a big advance; when seen internationally, it is much less so. Real wages dropped to their pre-War level between 1928 and 1937 during the industrialization drive.
    Keywords: Russia, real wages, economic development, inequality, revolution
    JEL: D33 J30 N93 N94 P22 P23
    Date: 2017–08–16
  3. By: Yuan, Weipeng; Macve, Richard; Ma, Debin
    Abstract: Claims have repeatedly been made for the importance of double-entry bookkeeping (‘DEB’) for capitalism’s development in the West, so it is valuable to explore the book-keeping and accounting practices of economically successful organizations elsewhere. Our paper reports our exploration into the original account books contained in the archive of Tŏng Tài Shēng (‘TTS’), a substantial Chinese ‘grocery / merchant-banking’ business whose surviving books span a period from the late 18th century to the middle of the 19th century. The TTS archive is the most complete and integrated surviving merchant archive from before China’s forced opening to the West in the mid-19th century. Our findings about its accounting processes and records (of which we give illustrations) shed critical light on the nature of indigenous Chinese bookkeeping and business organization and on the larger questions about Chinese commercial culture and the path of its development, for comparison with those about the West. We find no evidence in the surviving account books of TTS to support previous arguments in the literature that at this period Chinese accounting practice for successful businesses (must have) had its own 'Chinese double entry bookkeeping' ('CDEB') comparable to Western DEB.
    Keywords: Chinese accounting archives of late Qīng era; Chinese business history; Sūzhōu măzì; double-entry bookkeeping (DEB)
    JEL: N0 M40
    Date: 2017–06–07
  4. By: Maria Sousa Galito
    Abstract: Julius Caesar (JC) survived two civil wars: first, leaded by Cornelius Sulla and Gaius Marius; and second by himself and Pompeius Magnus. Until he was stabbed to death, at a senate session, in the Ides of March of 44 BC. JC has always been loved or hated, since he was alive and throughout History. He was a war hero, as many others. He was a patrician, among many. He was a roman Dictator, but not the only one. So what did he do exactly to get all this attention? Why did he stand out so much from the crowd? What did he represent? JC was a front-runner of his time, not a modern leader of the XXI century; and there are things not accepted today that were considered courageous or even extraordinary achievements back then. This text tries to explain why it’s important to focus on the man; on his life achievements before becoming the most powerful man in Rome; and why he stood out from every other man.
    Keywords: Caesar, Politics, Military, Religion, Assassination.
    Date: 2018–06
  5. By: Gregori Galofré-VilÃ; Andrew Hinde; Aravinda Guntupalli
    Abstract: Abstract This paper uses a dataset of heights calculated from the femurs of skeletal remains to explore the development of stature in England across the last two millennia. We find that heights increased during the Roman period and then steadily fell during the ‘Dark Ages’ in the early medieval period. At the turn of the first millennium heights grew rapidly, but after 1200 they started to decline coinciding with the agricultural depression, the Great Famine and the Black Death. Then they recovered to reach a plateau which they maintained for almost 300 years, before falling on the eve of industrialisation. The data show that average heights in England in the early nineteenth century were shorter than those in Roman times, and that average heights reported between 1400 and 1700 were similar to those of the twentieth century. The paper also discusses the ssociation of heights across time with some potential determinants and correlates (real wages, inequality, food supply, climate change and expectation of life), showing that in the long run heights change with these variables, and that in certain periods, notably the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, the associations are observable over the shorter run as well. We also examine potential biases surrounding the use of skeletal remains.
    Keywords: Health, Height, England, Skeletal remains
    Date: 2017–01–24
  6. By: Alexander A. J. Wulfers
    Abstract: Abstract The Age of Mass Migration came to an end in the interwar period with new American immigration restrictions, but did this end affect some potential migrants more than others? I use previously unanalysed data from passenger lists of ships leaving Bremen, one of the major European ports of emigration, between 1920 and 1933, to identify occupations and skill levels of individual migrants. The main focus of the paper is on the role that policy played in influencing the selection of migrants. I study the American quota laws of 1921, 1924, and 1929, and find that increasingly strict quotas led to an increase in the skill level of migrants as well as a shift from agricultural to manufacturing workers first, and from manufacturing to professional workers later.
    Keywords: immigration policy, skill selection, quotas, United States, Bremen, interwar period
    JEL: J15 N32 N34
    Date: 2018–01–25
  7. By: Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
    Abstract: Abstract This paper surveys independent Ireland’s economic policies and performance. It has three main messages. First, the economic history of post-independence Ireland was not particularly unusual. Very often, things that were happening in Ireland were happening elsewhere as well. Second, for a long time we were hampered by an excessive dependence on a poorly performing UK economy. And third, EC membership in 1973, and the Single Market programme of the late 1980s and early 1990s, were absolutely crucial for us. Irish independence and EU membership have complemented each other, rather than being in conflict: each was required to give full effect to the other. Irish independence would not have worked as well for us as it did without the EU; and the EU would not have worked as well for us as it did without political independence.
    Keywords: Ireland, economic history, trade policies, growth, Brexit
    JEL: N14 N74
    Date: 2017–01–11
  8. By: Becker, Sascha O.; Grosfeld, Irena; Grosjean, Pauline; Voigtländer, Nico; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: We exploit a unique historical setting to study the long-run effects of forced migration on investment in education. After World War II, the Polish borders were redrawn, resulting in large-scale migration. Poles were forced to move from the Kresy territories in the East (taken over by the USSR) and were resettled mostly to the newly acquired Western Territories, from which Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that, while there were no pre-WWII differences in education, Poles with a family history of forced migration are significantly more educated today. Descendants of forced migrants have on average one extra year of schooling, driven by a higher propensity to finish secondary or higher education. This result holds when we restrict ancestral locations to a subsample around the former Kresy border and include fixed effects for the destination of migrants. As Kresy migrants were of the same ethnicity and religion as other Poles, we bypass confounding factors of other cases of forced migration. We show that labor market competition with natives and selection of migrants are also unlikely to drive our results. Survey evidence suggests that forced migration led to a shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in a mobile asse - human capital. The effects persist over three generations.
    Keywords: Forced Migration; Human Capital; Poland; Uprootedness
    JEL: D74 I25 N33 N34
    Date: 2018–06
  9. By: Stephen Broadberry; Hanhui Guan; David Daokui Li
    Abstract: Abstract Chinese GDP per capita fluctuated at a high level during the Northern Song and Ming dynasties before trending downwards during the Qing dynasty. China led the world in living standards during the Northern Song dynasty, but had fallen behind Italy by 1300. At this stage, it is possible that parts of China were still on a par with the richest parts of Europe, but by 1750 the gap was too large to be bridged by regional variation within China and the Great Divergence had already begun before the Industrial Revolution.
    Keywords: GDP Per Capita; Economic Growth; Great Divergence; China; Europe
    JEL: E10 N35 O10
    Date: 2017–04–24
  10. By: Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III, Groningen, and CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper provides a long-run view of well-being inequality at world scale based on a new historical dataset. Trends in social dimensions alter the view on inequality derived from per capita GDP. While in terms of income, inequality increased until the third quarter of the twentieth century; in terms of well-being, inequality fell steadily since World War I. The spread of mass primary education and the health transitions were its main drivers. The gap between the West and the Rest explains only partially the evolution of well-being inequality, as the dispersion within the developing regions has increasingly determined its evolution.
    Keywords: Well-being, Inequality, Life Expectancy, Health Transition, Education, per capita GDP
    JEL: I00 N30 O15 O50
    Date: 2018–05
  11. By: Becker, Sascha O. (University of Warwick); Grosfeld, Irena (Paris School of Economics); Grosjean, Pauline (UNSW); Voigtländer, Nico (UCLA); Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: We exploit a unique historical setting to study the long-run effects of forced migration on investment in education. After World War II, the Polish borders were redrawn, resulting in large-scale migration. Poles were forced to move from the Kresy territories in the East (taken over by the USSR) and were resettled mostly to the newly acquired Western Territories, from which Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that, while there were no pre-WWII differences in education, Poles with a family history of forced migration are significantly more educated today. Descendants of forced migrants have on average one extra year of schooling, driven by a higher propensity to finish secondary or higher education. This result holds when we restrict ancestral locations to a subsample around the former Kresy border and include fixed effects for the destination of migrants. As Kresy migrants were of the same ethnicity and religion as other Poles, we bypass confounding factors of other cases of forced migration. We show that labor market competition with natives and selection of migrants are also unlikely to drive our results. Survey evidence suggests that forced migration led to a shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in a mobile asset – human capital. The effects persist over three generations
    Keywords: Poland ; Forced Migration ; Uprootedness ; Human Capital
    JEL: N33 N34 D74 I25
    Date: 2018
  12. By: Jose A. Lopez; Kris James Mitchener
    Abstract: Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. Impulse response functions show that increased uncertainty caused a rise in inflation contemporaneously and for a few months afterward in GAPH, but this effect was absent or much more limited for the other European countries in our sample. Our results suggest that elevated economic uncertainty directly affected inflation dynamics and the incidence of hyperinflation during the interwar period.
    Keywords: hyperinflation, uncertainty, exchange rates, prices, reparations
    JEL: E31 E63 F31 F33 F41 F51 G15 N14
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Brian A'Hearn; Nicola Amendola; Giovanni Vecchi
    Abstract: Abstract: The paper argues that household budgets are the best starting point for investigating a number of big questions related to the evolution of the living standards during the last two-three centuries. If one knows where to look, historical family budgets are more abundant than might be suspected. And statistical techniques have been developed to handle the associated problems of small, incomplete, and unrepresentative samples. We introduce the Historical Household Budgets (HHB) Project, aimed at gathering data and sources, but also at creating an informational infrastructure that provides i) reliable storage and easy access to historical family budget data, along with ii) tools to configure the data as it is entered so as to harmonise it with present-day surveys.
    Keywords: household budgets, household budget surveys, living standards, inequality, poverty, survey, globalization, purchasing power parities,grouped data, poststratification.
    JEL: N30 I31 I32 C81 C83 D60 D63 O12 O15
    Date: 2016–06–16
  14. By: Kenny, Seán; Turner, John D.
    Abstract: Using a new biography of banks, we examine the stability of Irish banking from 1797 to 1826 by constructing a failure rate series. We find that the ultimate cause of the frequent and severe banking crises was the crisis-prone structure of the banking system, which was designed to benefit the political elite. There is little evidence to suggest that wildcat banking or the failure of the Bank of Ireland to act as a lender of last resort were to blame. We also find that the main economic effect of the episodic crises was major diminutions in the money supply.
    Keywords: banking crisis,bank failure,Ireland,partnership,wildcat banking,political economy of banking
    JEL: G21 E42 N13 N23
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Kenny, Seán (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Turner, John D. (Queen's University Belfast)
    Abstract: Using a new biography of banks, we examine the stability of Irish banking from 1797 to 1826 by constructing a failure rate series. We find that the ultimate cause of the frequent and severe banking crises was the crisis-prone structure of the banking system, which was designed to benefit the political elite. There is little evidence to suggest that wildcat banking or the failure of the Bank of Ireland to act as a lender of last resort were to blame. We also find that the main economic effect of the episodic crises was major diminutions in the money supply.
    Keywords: banking crisis; bank failure; Ireland; partnership; wildcat banking; political economy of banking
    JEL: E42 G21 N13 N23
    Date: 2018–06–21
  16. By: Tobias A. Jopp (University of Regensburg)
    Abstract: The scholarly discourse about twentieth century forced labour has raised important questions. For example, how profitable and productive has the employment of forced labour been in different political and economic contexts? The dominant take-away from the literature is that forced labour comes with negative productivity, but positive production effects. Yet much evidence on productivity is anecdotal. To add a new quantitative take on this issue, this paper analyses the natural experiment conducted in World War I Ruhr coal mining, where, beginning with 1915, Prisoner-of-War (POW) labour was successively employed in many, but not all mines. The question to be answered is whether mines employing POW labour incurred significant labour productivity losses compared to non-POW employing mines that cannot be explained otherwise. To this end, we borrow from the treatment effects literature and implement two estimators – a baseline difference-in-difference fixed effects estimator and a doubly robust treatment effects estimator. Our study is the first to assess the productivity effects of POW employment using a full population of establishments of a particular industry. Our findings strongly support the view that the benefits from employing POW labour – i.e., the output-effect – came at the expense of a significant loss in productivity.
    Keywords: Coal, Difference-in-differences, Doubly-robust estimation, Germany, Prisoners of War, Productivity, Treatment effects, WWI
    JEL: D24 J24 N44 N54
    Date: 2018–06
  17. By: Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
    Abstract: Preliminary version of a paper prepared for IMF-BNM-IMFER Conference on Globalization in the Aftermath of the Crisis and the IMF Economic Review. The research on which this paper is based was in part funded by the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546. The paper draws on many collaborations, and I am extremely grateful to my co-authors: Miguel Almunia, Agustin Bénétrix, Roberto Bonfatti, Alan de Bromhead, Barry Eichengreen, Alan Fernihough, Ronald Findlay, William Hynes, David Jacks, Markus Lampe, Gisela Rua, and Jeffrey Williamson. The usual disclaimer applies.
    Date: 2017–09–20
  18. By: De Bromhead, Alan; Fernihough, Alan; Hargaden, Enda
    Abstract: Electoral reforms in 1918 nearly tripled the number of people eligible to vote in Ireland. Following the reforms - the largest franchise extensions in UK history - the previously obscure Sinn Féin party secured 73 of Ireland's 105 seats, an outcome that presaged a guerrilla war and ultimately independence from the United Kingdom. This paper examines the relationship between the franchise extension and the election results. We find little evidence of a connection between the two. New female voters appear less likely to have supported Sinn Féin. New male voters were slightly more likely to vote for Sinn Féin, but the magnitude of this effect was small and statistically insignificant. In fact, non-voting appears particularly high for both groups of new voters. Our results suggest that the extension of the franchise cannot explain Sinn Féin's victory. We conclude their electoral success was more likely driven by a change of heart on behalf of the Irish electorate, rather than a change in its composition.
    Keywords: Voting,Elections,Ireland,Sinn Féin
    JEL: D72 N44 N94
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Gupta, Avinash
    Abstract: The article is essentially a book-review of Professor Vijay Joshi's recent work, '"India's Long Road: The Search for Prosperity". In this critical essay, I take a slightly revisionist approach when it comes to a 'typical'book review. For example, the length of this article goes well-beyond the standard convention. The ‘deviation’ from rules, however, has specific objectives. I have critically analyzed Dr. Joshi’s work and in so doing include relevant evidences, debates and questions not just from economics but also from other disciplines such as history and political science.
    Keywords: Critical book-review,dominant perspective in economics,underdevelopment
    JEL: A
    Date: 2018
  20. By: Elisabeth Bublitz (University of Hamburg); Michael Wyrwich (University of Jena)
    Abstract: Could the industrialization reduce social inequalities? We use the rise of office employment in the early 20th century as a historical experiment to study the effect of technological change on labor market access for vulnerable groups. In regions with industries that were strongly connected to the modern office, we find a higher regional labor force participation of disabled people which is explained by better access to the job market for people with physical impairments due to the new office technology. The beneficial employment effect is not distributed equally across gender but is restricted to disabled men. The composition of the workforce in the new white-collar jobs shows no significant differences, implying that vulnerable groups benefitted in similar proportions to workers without health issues. In sum, the second industrialization started to lower labor market entry barriers which gives proof of a market-based leverage effect to foster social inclusiveness.
    Keywords: Technological change, labor demand, disability, social inequality
    JEL: J14 J22 J23 O33
    Date: 2018–06–28
  21. By: Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke; Alan de Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe
    Abstract: Abstract International trade became much less multilateral during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that discriminatory trade policies had comparatively little to do with this. Using highly disaggregated information on the UK’s imports and trade policies, we find that policy can explain the majority of Britain’s shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s. Trade policy mattered, a lot.
    Keywords: trade policy, interwar period
    JEL: F13 F14 N74
    Date: 2017–02–13
  22. By: Judy Stephenson
    Abstract: Abstract This paper provides new information and data on how work and pay actually operated for skilled and semi-skilled men on large London construction projects in the early 1700s, and for the first time, offers detailed firm level evidence on the number of days per year worked by men. Construction workers’ working days were bounded by structural factors of both supply and demand, men worked a far lower number of days than has been assumed until now. This has implications for our understanding of the ‘industrious revolution’, and industrialisation.
    Keywords: England; industrial revolution; industrious revolution; labour input; living standards; wages, building craftsmen
    JEL: J3 J4 J6 N33 N63
    Date: 2018–02–22
  23. By: Brian A'Hearn; Alexia Delfino; Alessandro Nuvolari
    Abstract: A swelling stream of literature employs age-heaping as an indicator of human capital, more specifically of numeracy. We re-examine this connection in light of evidence drawn from nineteenth century Italy: census data, death records, and direct, qualitative evidence on age-awareness and numeracy. Though it can stand in as an acceptable proxy for literacy, our findings suggest that age-heaping is most plausibly interpreted as a broad indicator of cultural and institutional modernisation rather than a measure of cognitive skills.
    Keywords: Age-Heaping, Numeracy, Human capital, Italy
    JEL: N33 J24
    Date: 2016–10–20
  24. By: Mitchener, Kris James; Ma, Debin
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2016–12–16
  25. By: Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke; Alan de Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe
    Abstract: Abstract A recent literature explores the nature and causes of the collapse in international trade during 2008 and 2009. The decline was particularly great for automobiles and industrial supplies; it occurred largely along the intensive margin; quantities fell by more than prices; and prices fell less for differentiated products. Do these stylised facts apply to trade collapses more generally? This paper uses detailed, commodity specific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933, to see to what extent the trade collapses of the Great Depression and Great Recession resembled each other. It also compares the free trading trade collapse of 1929-31 with the protectionist collapse of 1931-3, to see to what extent protection, and gradual recovery from the Great Depression, mattered for UK trade patterns.
    Keywords: Great Depression; Great Recession; trade; protectionism
    JEL: F14 N74
    Date: 2018–01–22
  26. By: Jane Humphries; Jacob Weisdorf
    Abstract: Abstract: Existing measures of historical real wages suffer from the fundamental problem that workers’ annual incomes are estimated on the basis of day wages without knowing the length of the working year. We circumvent this problem by presenting a novel wage series of male workers employed on annual contracts. We use evidence of labour market arbitrage to argue that existing real wage estimates are badly off target, because they overestimate the medieval working year but underestimate the industrial one. Our data suggests that modern economic growth began two centuries earlier than hitherto thought and was driven by an ‘Industrious Revolution’.
    Keywords: England, industrial revolution, industrious revolution, labour input, living standards, wages, Malthusian model.
    JEL: J3 J4 J5 J6 J7 J8 N33
    Date: 2016–09–20
  27. By: Avner Offer
    Abstract: Social democracy and market liberalism offered different solutions to the same problem: how to provide for life-cycle dependency. Social democracy makes lateral transfers from producers to dependents by means of progressive taxation. Market liberalism uses financial markets to transfer financial entitlement over time. Social democracy came up against the limits of public expenditure in the 1970s. The ‘market turn’ from social democracy to market liberalism was enabled by easy credit in the 1980s. Much of this was absorbed into homeownership, which attracted majorities of households (and voters) in the developed world. Early movers did well, but easy credit eventually drove house prices beyond the reach of younger cohorts. Debt service diminished effective demand, which instigated financial instability. Both social democracy and market liberalism are in crisis.
    Keywords: Welfare state, housing, credit and debt
    JEL: H55 E51 R21 R31
    Date: 2017–01–09
  28. By: Konstantin Buechel, Stephan Kyburz
    Abstract: We study the effect of railway access on regional development in 19th century Switzerland. The identification strategy in our analysis of geo-referenced railway network information, population growth rates, sectoral work shares and body height, relies on panel data techniques and an inconsequential units IV approach. Gaining railway access increased annual population growth by 0.4 percentage points compared to unconnected municipalities, mainly via the local migration balance. Railway improvements also promoted structural shifts from the primary to the secondary/tertiary sectors, and marginally accelerated body height growth.
    Keywords: Railway Access, Regional Development, Population Growth, Structural Change, Body Height, Switzerland
    JEL: I30 N33 N73 O18
    Date: 2016–08
  29. By: Stephen Broadberry; John Wallis
    Abstract: Abstract Using annual data from the thirteenth century to the present, we show that improved long run economic performance has occurred primarily through a decline in the rate and frequency of shrinking, rather than through an increase in the rate of growing. Indeed, as economic performance has improved over time, the short run rate of growing has typically declined rather than increased. Most analysis of the process of economic development has hitherto focused on increasing the rate of growing. Here, we focus on understanding the forces making for a reduction in the rate of shrinking, drawing a distinction between proximate and ultimate factors. The main proximate factors considered are (1) structural change (2) technological change (3) demographic change and (4) the changing incidence of warfare. We conclude with a consideration of institutional change as the key ultimate factor behind the reduction in shrinking.
    Date: 2017–04–24
  30. By: Andreas Steinhauer (University of Edinburgh)
    Abstract: In this paper I provide empirical evidence that the strength of beliefs regarding the harm children suffer when their mothers work plays an important role in explaining gender gaps in labor market outcomes and fertility trends. I exploit a unique setting in Switzerland and compare outcomes of one cohort of Swiss women born in the 1950s either into the French or German ethno-linguistic group. This allows me to compare outcomes of women exposed to different norms regarding working mothers while holding constant typical confounding factors such as composition, labor market opportunities, and work-family policies. Consistent with the strong belief that children suffer with working mothers in the German region, I find that German-born women are 15-25% less likely to work as mothers and 20-20% more likely to remain childless compared to their French-born peers. Only the extensive margins show marked differences and especially among the highly educated. I argue that an identity framework along the lines of Akerlof and Kranton (2000) can rationalize these patterns in a tractable way.
    Keywords: famale employment; childlessness; famale identity
    Date: 2018–05
  31. By: Ewout Depauw; Deborah Oxley
    Abstract: Does adult stature capture conditions at birth or at some other stage in the growth cycle? Anthropometrics is lauded as a method for capturing net nutritional status over all the growing years. However, it is frequently assumed that conditions at birth were most influential. Was this true for historical populations? This paper examines the heights of Belgian men born between 1800-76 to tease apart which moments of growth were most sensitive to disruption and reflected in final heights. It exploits two proximate crises in 1846-49 and 1853-56 as shocks that permit age effects to be revealed. These are affirmed through a study of food prices and death rates. Both approaches suggest a shift of the critical moment away from the first few years of life and towards the adolescent growth spurt as the most influential on terminal stature. Furthermore, just as height is accumulated over the growing years, conditions influencing growth need to be understood cumulatively. Economic conditions at the time of birth were not explanatory, but their collective effects from ages 11 to 18 years were strongly influential. Then, both health and nutrition mattered, in shifting degrees. Teenagers, not toddlers, should be our guides to the past.
    Keywords: child growth, crisis effects, early-life health, height, nutrition, prisoners, puberty
    Date: 2017–05–08
  32. By: Robert Allen
    Abstract: In the 1980s, Lindert and Williamson famously revised the social tables of King, Massie, Colquhoun, Smee, and Baxter that traverse the British industrial revolution. This paper extends their work in three directions: Servants are removed from middle and upper class households in the tables of King, Massie, and Colquhoun and tallied separately, estimates are made for the same tables of the number and incomes of women and children employed in the various occupations, income estimates are broken down into rents, profits, and employment income. These extensions to the tables allow variables to be computed that can be checked against independent estimates as a validation exercise. The tables are retabulated in a standard format to highlight the changing social structure of Britain during the industrial revolution. Changes in the social structure, the evolution of incomes by classes, and the pace of structural transformation are revealed.
    Keywords: social table, industrial revolution, national income, income distribution
    Date: 2016–06–30
  33. By: Qazi Haque (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Nicolas Groshenny (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Mark Weder (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine whether or not monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation. We focus on a number of attributes that we see relevant for any analysis of the 1970s: cost-push or oil price shocks, positive trend inflation as well as real wage rigidity. We turn our artificial sticky-price economy into a Bayesian model and find that the U.S. economy during the 1970s is best characterized by a high degree of real wage rigidity. Oil price shocks thus created a trade-off between inflation and output-gap stabilization. Faced with this dilemma, the Federal Reserve reacted aggressively to inflation but hardly at all to the output gap, thereby inducing stability, i.e. determinacy.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; Great Inflation; Cost-push shocks; Trend inflation; Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm
    JEL: E32 E52 E58
    Date: 2018–05
  34. By: Stephen Broadberry; Jean-Pascal Bassino; Kyoji Fukao; Bishnupriya Gupta; Masanori Takashima
    Abstract: Abstract Japanese GDP per capita grew at an annual rate of 0.08 per cent between 730 and 1874, but the growth was episodic, with the increase in per capita income concentrated in twoperiods, 1450-1600 and after 1721, interspersed with periods of stable per capita income. There is a similarity here with the growth pattern of Britain. The first countries to achieve modern economic growth at opposite ends of Eurasia thus shared the experience of an early end to growth reversals. However, Japan started at a lower level than Britain and grew more slowly until the Meiji Restoration.
    Keywords: Japan, Great Divergence, GDP per capita, growth reversals, Britain
    JEL: N10 N30 N35 O10 O57
    Date: 2017–04–24
  35. By: Balliester, Thereza.; Elsheikhi, Adam.
    Abstract: An enormous amount of literature has emerged over the last few years in the context of the “Future of Work”. Academics, think tanks and policy makers have fuelled rich discussions about how the future of work might look like and how we can shape it. Indeed, labour markets in developing and developed countries are likely to undergo major transformations in the next years and decades. However, despite a growing body of research in this area, there exists no universally accepted definition of what exactly the “Future of Work” encompasses and what the most relevant drivers are. Accordingly, there is a vast variety of themes and methods covered by the literature on the Future of Work. Few papers cut across a multidimensional analysis of the different potential drivers of change. This literature review provides the first systematic and synoptic overview of topics discussed under the umbrella of the “Future of Work”. It not only highlights the trends of the most important drivers as discussed in existing studies,it also defines what the expected outcomes of the future of work might be. The review first devises a structure based on key labour market dimensions and then categorises findings from the literature conditioned on such dimensions. It also contains an assessment on the coverage of the studies on the future of work and perceived limitations and thematic gaps.
    Keywords: future of work, work organization
    Date: 2018
  36. By: Douglas Hay
    Abstract: Abstract Many economic historians agree that increased labour inputs contributed to Britain’s primary industrialisation. Voluntary self-exploitation by workers to purchase new consumer goods is one common explanation, but it sits uneasily with evidence of poverty, child labour, popular protest, and criminal punishments explored by social historians. A critical and neglected legal dimension may be the evolution of contracts of employment. The law of master and servant, to use the technical term, shifted markedly between 1750 and 1850 to advantage capital and disadvantage labour. Medieval in origin, it had always been adjudicated in summary hearings before lay magistrates, and provided penal sanctions to employers (imprisonment, wage abatement, and later fines), while giving workers a summary remedy for unpaid wages. The law always enforced obedience to employers’ commands, suppressed strikes, and tried to keep wages low. Between 1750 and 1850 it became more hostile to workers through legislation and judicial redefinition; its enforcement became harsher through expansion of imprisonment, capture of the local bench by industrial employers, and employer abuse of written contracts. More work in manuscript sources is needed to test the argument, but it seems likely that intensification of labour inputs during industrialisation was closely tied to these legal changes.
    Keywords: coercion, contract of employment, labour law, industriousness, punishment, work time
    Date: 2018–05–30
  37. By: Satoshi Shimizutani (Nakasone Yasuhiro Peace Institute); Hiroyuki Yamada (Faculty of Economics, Keio University)
    Abstract: This paper examines long-term consequences of one of the most serious catastrophes ever inflicted on humankind: the atomic bombing that occurred in Hiroshima in 1945. While many victims died immediately or within a few years of the bombing, there were many negative effects on survivors in terms of both health and social/economic aspects that could last many years. Of these two life factors, health and social/economic aspects, the latter has largely been ignored by researchers. We investigate possible long-lasting effects using a new dataset covering the middle and older generations in Hiroshima some 60 years after the tragedy. Our empirical results show that Atomic Bomb Survivors did not necessarily suffer unfavorable life experiences in terms of the average marriage status or educational attainment but did experience significant disadvantages some aspects including the husband/wife combination of married couples, work status, mental health, and expectations for the future. Thus, survivors have suffered for many years after the catastrophe itself.
    Keywords: social discrimination,atomic bomb, radiation exposure, Hiroshima
    JEL: I18 I31 H12
  38. By: Pablo Astorga Junquera
    Abstract: Abstract This paper discusses and documents a new dataset of real wages for unskilled, semi-skilled, and relatively skilled labour in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela (LA-6) over the period 1900-2011. Three interrelated aspects are examined: the wage growth record associated with periods dominated by a particular development strategy; wage convergence across the LA-6; and changes in wage skill premiums and their links with fundamentals. The key findings are: i) the region’s unskilled wage rose by 147% in the period compared to rises of 243% in the average wage and 440% in income per worker (including both property and labour income); ii) there is a limited process of wage convergence across the LA-6; and weak persistence in the country hierarchy; iii) skill premiums tended to peak during the middle decades of the 20th century, coinciding with the acceleration of industrialisation and the timing of the demographic transition. Movements in the terms of trade are broadly associated with both fluctuations and trends in wage premiums, though the direction of the link is country and time specific.
    Keywords: wage levels and differentials, economic development, Latin America
    JEL: J31 O1 N36
    Date: 2017–03–20
  39. By: Chris Kirrane
    Abstract: Historical examination of the Bretton Woods system allows comparisons to be made with the current evolution of the EMS.
    Date: 2018–07
  40. By: Taiki Kamei (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to discuss the significance of the vertically and horizontal integration focus on the textile companies in the Meiji Period. It has been widely accepted that the process was initiated by those formed as spinning companies, which later acquired the weaving sector by mergers and acquisitions because of recession. This paper is to show an alternative way of vertical integration of spinning and weaving processes in cotton industry in early Meiji Japan through a case study of the Kyoto Cotton Flannel Co., Ltd(the Kyomen). Cotton flannel is a finished cotton textile napped on side made to imitate wool flannel. Full-fledged, factory-based machine printing in Japan started to develop when the Kyomen was established in 1895. The Kyomen actively transferred technology for raising the nap of the cloth, dyeing and processing to European. The industry faced various quality problems caused by inexperience in machine printing technique and copper roller engraving. This study provide evidence that the Kyomen was the first Japanese company which overcame these challenges. It was worthwhile to note that the Kyomen achieve vertical integration process by acquisition of Kyoto Spinning Company. Since then, it internalized the spinning process and became able to improve the self-manufactured cotton yarn to fit in printing and napping. It made it possible to improve the quality of cotton flannels. When the competition in this industry is fierce after the Russo-Japanese War, the Kyomen was developing aggressive horizontal integration in order to break out of dependence on the sales cotton flannels. Although the Kyomen failed to finance them and went bankrupt in 1909, it filled an importance role in the rise of the machine textile printing industry in Japan.
    Keywords: vertical integration, technology transfer, machine textile printing, integrated spinning andweaving, Kyoto Nisijin
    JEL: N65 N75 N85
    Date: 2018–06
  41. By: Sara Horrell; Jane Humphries
    Keywords: Children’s work and pay; Labour Markets; Demography; Britain, long-run
    JEL: N33
    Date: 2018–03–20
  42. By: Luis Díez Catalán
    Abstract: Much research has documented a decline in the aggregate labor share in the United States and other countries. Yet, this is not a general phenomenon across industries. In fact, there has been a divergence between services and non-services industries in the United States since 1980.
    Keywords: Working Paper , Global Economy , USA , Europe
    JEL: E21 E24 E25
    Date: 2018–06
  43. By: Dominique Lejeune (CPGE, Louis le Grand)
    Abstract: La 4 CV est un des symboles de la France d’après-guerre, des débuts des Trente Glorieuses, de la société de consommation et des loisirs, de la vocation française persistante à produire essentiellement des petites voitures populaires. De surcroît, la 4 CV a longtemps été le symbole de la Régie Renault. Rattrapant et devançant la Citroën 2 CV qui ne verra le jour qu’en 1948, la 4 CV apparaît au Salon de l’auto de 1946 avec l’exergue que lui donne le patron de la Régie, Pierre Lefaucheux : l’automobile n’est pas un objet de luxe, elle doit être « à la portée du plus grand nombre ». Pour tout cela la 4 CV fonde très explicitement son succès, très volontariste, sur la modernisation de l’outil industriel et l’étude de marché. Ce succès n’est pas aperçu d’emblée par les constructeurs concurrents de Renault et par la presse automobile ou sportive, mais la Quatrième République naissante — l’adoption de la constitution par référendum est presque exactement contemporaine du Salon de l’Auto de 1946 — sent bien la carte à jouer : le véhicule nouveau va prouver les capacités industrielles de croissance d’une Régie nationale dont les statuts sont tout jeunes, montrer un visage neuf de la France et de Renault, et enfin assurer le progrès social du pays. Première véritable auto française d’évasion, petite puce de sympathie, gentille « motte de beurre », la 4 CV va offrir des plaisirs divers grâce à la première vitesse non synchronisée et au démarrage en seconde, elle sera une mine de plaisanteries pour les chansonniers radiophoniques, une source d’accidents par le capot, les portes avant, les arbres de roues arrière et la prise au vent, mais la 4 CV est la voiture du renouveau et une arme industrielle et commerciale essentielle pour Renault !
    Keywords: Automobile France,Industrie années 50,Renault,Ingénieurs français
    Date: 2018
  44. By: Michael D. Bordo; Klodiana Istrefi
    Abstract: Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are perceived as swingers, switching between types, or remained an unknown quantity to markets. What makes a member a hawk or a dove? What moulds those who change their tune? We highlight ideology by education and early life economic experiences of members of the FOMC from 1960s to 2015. This research is based on an original dataset.
    JEL: E50 E61
    Date: 2018–05
  45. By: Ivan Mendieta-Munoz; Mengheng Li
    Abstract: This paper studies the evolution of long-run output and labour productivity growth rates in the G-7 countries during the post-war period. We estimate the growth rates consistent with a constant unemployment rate using time-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and a Heckman-type two-step estimation procedure that deals with the possible endogeneity problem in the econometric models. The results show a significant decline in long-run growth rates that is not associated with the detrimental effects of the Great Recession, and that the rate of growth of labour productivity appears to be behind the slowdown in long-run GDP growth.
    Keywords: Long-run output growth rates, unobserved components, Kalman filter, time- varying parameter models, stochastic volatility, Heckman two-step bias correction. JEL Classification: O41, O47, C15, C32
    Date: 2018
  46. By: Fukao, Kyoji (Asian Development Bank Institute); Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We show that σ-convergence in regional productivity growth can be approximated by σ-convergence in sectoral productivity growth and σ-convergence in structural transformation-led productivity growth. Applying this framework to Japanese prefecture-level data from 1874 to 2008, we find support for substantial convergence effects of structural transformation in the post-WWII years.
    Keywords: structural transformation; labor productivity; regional convergence; Japan
    JEL: O10 O40
    Date: 2018–04–23
  47. By: Kehoe, Patrick J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Midrigan, Virgiliu (New York University); Pastorino, Elena (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: Modern business cycle theory focuses on the study of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that generate aggregate fluctuations similar to those experienced by actual economies. We discuss how this theory has evolved from its roots in the early real business cycle models of the late 1970s through the turmoil of the Great Recession four decades later. We document the strikingly different pattern of comovements of macro aggregates during the Great Recession compared to other postwar recessions, especially the 1982 recession. We then show how two versions of the latest generation of real business cycle models can account, respectively, for the aggregate and the cross-regional fluctuations observed in the Great Recession in the United States.
    Keywords: New Keynesian models; Financial frictions; External validation
    JEL: E13 E32 E52 E61
    Date: 2018–06–14
  48. By: Michael Fritsch (FSU Jena); Michael Wyrwich (FSU Jena); Martin Obschonka (Queensland University of Technology Business School Brisbane)
    Abstract: There is a research gap with respect to understanding the role of entrepreneurial culture and tradition for actual start-up behaviour. We combine historical self-employment data (entrepreneurial tradition) with a psychological measure for entrepreneurial attitudes (entrepreneurial culture). The results reveal a positive relationship between the historical level of self-employment in a region and the presence of people with an entrepreneurial personality structure today. Our measure for a regional culture of entrepreneurship is positively related not only to the level of new business formation but also the amount of innovation activity.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, self-employment, new business for mation, personality traits, culture, innovation
    JEL: L26 N94 O11 O30 R11
    Date: 2018–06–25

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