nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒06‒25
33 papers chosen by

  1. Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain By Cloyne, James; Dimsdale, Nicholas; Postel-Vinay, Natacha
  2. Mortality near a large city: the rural area of Madrid in the 18th and 19th centuries By Enrique Llopis; José Antonio Sebastián; Felipa Sánchez Salazar; Vanesa Abarca; Ángel Luis Velasco
  3. Peasant Aristocrats? Wealth and Social Status of Swedish Farmer Parliamentarians 1769–1895 By Bengtsson, Erik; Olsson, Mats
  4. The Composition of Capital and Technological Unemployment: Marx's (and Ricardo's) Intellectual Debt to John Barton and George Ramsay. By Miguel D. Ramirez
  5. Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain By James Cloyne; Nicholas Dimsdale; Natacha Postel-Vinay
  6. Of time, uncertainty, and policy-making : Lionel Robbins’ lost philosophy of political economy By Thiago Dumont Oliveira; Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak
  7. Financial Diversification before WW1 : A Risk/Return Analysis of Portfolio’s Advice of French Financial Analyst Alfred Neymarck By Cécile EDLINGER; Maxime MERLI; Antoine PARENT
  8. Income and Wealth Inequality in America, 1949-2016 By Kuhn, Moritz; Schularick, Moritz; Steins, Ulrike I.
  9. Effects and characteristics of the implementation of the 1921 agrarian reform in Iași county By Dobos, Sebastian
  10. Book Review: Economic Thinking of Arab Muslim Writers During the Nineteenth Century: Abdul Azim Islahi (Editor), Reviewed by: Javed Ahmad Khan مراجعة كتاب: التفكير الاقتصادي للكتاب العرب المسلمين خلال القرن التاسع عشر: عبد العظيم اإصلاحي (محرر) ، مراجعة: جاويد أحمد خان By Javed Ahmad Khan جاويد أحمد خان
  11. Secular stagnation and concentration of corporate power By Joan R. Rovira
  12. Ancestral Characteristics of Modern Populations By Giuliano, Paola; Nunn, Nathan
  13. Leadership and Social Norms: Evidence from the Forty-Eighters in the Civil War By Christian Dippel; Stephan Heblich
  14. The Sources of Growth in a Technologically Progressive Economy By Bakker, Gerben; Crafts, Nicholas; Woltjer, Pieter
  15. A Model of the Marxist Rent Theory By Debarshi Das
  16. Addendum to "Marx's Analysis of Ground-Rent : Theory, Examples and Applications" By Deepankar Basu
  17. Global financial cycles and risk premiums By Jordá, Óscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.; Ward, Felix
  18. The investments of the Spanish insurance Companies, 1984-2015 By Ferran Camprubí i Baiges; Manuela Bosch Príncep
  19. “Unconventional” Monetary Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy : A Perspective from the U.S. in the 1920s By Mark A. Carlson; Burcu Duygan-Bump
  20. Reforma Monetaria y Metas de Inflación By Roque B. Fernández
  22. Democratic Constraints and Adherence to the Classical Gold Standard By Kramer, Bert S.; Milionis, Petros
  23. Private Remittances Received and Household Consumption in Ghana (1980-2016): An ARDL Analysis with Structural Breaks By Akpa, Emeka
  24. Financial Development, Growth and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Ghana By Ho, Sin-Yu; Njindan Iyke, Bernard
  25. Road safety and economic development: analysis of the Algerian case By Mariem Bougueroua; Laurent Carnis
  26. Access to the trade: monopoly and mobility in European craft guilds, 17th and 18th centuries By Prak, Maarten; Crowston, Clare; De Munck, Bert; Kissane, Christopher; Minns, Chris; Schalk, Ruben; Wallis, Patrick
  27. The Cultural Divide By Klaus Desmet; Romain Wacziarg
  28. Growth Volatility and Inequality in the U.S.: A Wavelet Analysis By Shinhye Chang; Rangan Gupta; Stephen M. Miller; Mark E. Wohar
  29. Independence of central banks after the crisis - focus on Hungary By Lisa Coiffard
  30. Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility By Clay, Karen; Portnykh, Margarita; Severnini, Edson R.
  31. An investigation into the reported closing of the Nicaraguan gender gap By Piper, Alan T.
  32. Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe By Fox, Jonathan; Klüsener, Sebastian; Myrskylä, Mikko
  33. Characterising green employment: the impacts of ‘greening’ on workforce composition By Bowen, Alex; Kuralbayeva, Karlygash; Tipoe, Eileen L.

  1. By: Cloyne, James; Dimsdale, Nicholas; Postel-Vinay, Natacha
    Abstract: The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is still a matter of great debate. And, ever since Keynes first commented on it, interwar Britain, 1918-1939, has remained a particularly contentious case --- not least because of its high debt environment and turbulent business cycle. This debate has often focused on the effects of government spending, but little is known about the effects of tax changes. In fact, a number of tax reforms in the period focused on long-term and social objectives, often reflecting the personality of British Chancellors. Based on extensive historiographical research, we apply a narrative approach to the interwar period in Britain and isolate a new series of exogenous tax changes. We find that tax changes have a sizable effect on GDP, with multipliers around 0.5 on impact and exceeding 2 within two years. Our estimates contribute to the historical debate about fiscal policy in the interwar period and are remarkably similar to the sizeable tax multipliers found after WWII.
    Keywords: Fiscal History; Fiscal policy; Macroeconomic Policy; multiplier; narrative approach; Public Finance; taxation
    JEL: E23 E32 E62 H2 H30 N1 N44
    Date: 2018–05
  2. By: Enrique Llopis (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain); José Antonio Sebastián (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain); Felipa Sánchez Salazar (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain); Vanesa Abarca (Universidad de Barcelona, Spain); Ángel Luis Velasco (Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, Spain)
    Abstract: This research focuses on the medium and long-term evolution of mortality levels in the rural areas of the province of Madrid during the 18th and 19th centuries. As previous papers have shown, between the beginning of the eighteenth century and the dawn of the demographic transition at the end of the nineteenth century, this variable declined in several provinces of interior Spain that were scarcely urbanized. This paper analyses the trajectory of mortality in an area, the rural surroundings of Madrid, characterized by its proximity to a large city that was rapidly growing. The most relevant conclusions are: (i) the closeness to the capital of the monarchy did not significantly increased or reduced, at least in net terms, the risk of death in rural Madrid during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries; (ii) between 1725-1749 and 1865-1889, the crude mortality rate fell back in rural Madrid about 20%; and, (iii) adult and ordinary mortality were key to understand this decline in general mortality.
    Keywords: Mortality; Rural Madrid; Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries
    JEL: I12 I31 N33
    Date: 2018–06
  3. By: Bengtsson, Erik (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Olsson, Mats (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Sweden was unique in early modern Europe, in that its parliament included a peasant farmer estate. It is commonplace in Swedish and international research to consider the peasant farmer politicians as the guarantee of a liberal and egalitarian path of development. On the other hand, in the Swedish-language political history literature, the peasant politicians are often seen as rather narrow-minded, their common political program limited to the issue of keeping (their own) taxes as low as possible, and opposed to any expansion of social policy and citizenship rights. To address the role of peasant farmer politicians, this paper presents a novel dataset of the social and economic status of the peasant MPs, with benchmarks for the 1769, 1809, 1840, 1865 and 1895 parliaments. We show that the politicians were three to four times wealthier than their voters, and in the 1895 parliament even 7.8 times wealthier. They were more likely to take bourgeois surnames and their children were likely to make a transition away from the peasant class and into the middle class. The exclusiveness of the peasant politicians, which increased over the nineteenth century, has implications for their policies, and helps explain the increasing conservatism and right-ward drift of Swedish farmer politics over the century.
    Keywords: peasant farmers; parliaments; Sweden; political economy
    JEL: I31 N13 N33
    Date: 2018–06–20
  4. By: Miguel D. Ramirez (Department of Economics, Trinity College)
    Abstract: This brief note contends that Marx's (and Ricardo's) views on fixed (constant) and circulating (variable) capital,the impact of machinery on the working class,and their conception of how the accumulation of capital gives rise to a relative diminution in the demand for labor were strongly influenced by the works of English economists John Barton and George Ramsay. With a few notable exceptions, Marx's (and Ricardo,s)intellectual debt to these classical economists has been practically neglected in the extant literature. Second, the note into Marx's theory of technological unemployment (surplus labor) and its main components. Again, the textual evidence strongly suggests that Marx was influenced by the writings of Barton, Ricardo, and Ramsay. The latter seems to have also influenced Marx's conception of one of the three major components of the surplus population, viz. the latent component.
    JEL: B10 B12 B14
    Date: 2018–06
  5. By: James Cloyne; Nicholas Dimsdale; Natacha Postel-Vinay
    Abstract: The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is still a matter of great debate. And, ever since Keynes first commented on it, interwar Britain, 1918- 1939, has remained a particularly contentious case | not least because of its high debt environment and turbulent business cycle. This debate has often focused on the effects of government spending, but little is known about the effects of tax changes. In fact, a number of tax reforms in the period focused on long-term and social objectives, often reflecting the personality of British Chancellors. Based on extensive historiographical research, we apply a narrative approach to the interwar period in Britain and isolate a new series of exogenous tax changes. We find that tax changes have a sizable effect on GDP, with multipliers around 0.5 on impact and exceeding 2 within two years. Our estimates contribute to the historical debate about fiscal policy in the interwar period and are remarkably similar to the sizable tax multipliers found after WWII.
    JEL: E32 E62 H2 N1 N44
    Date: 2018–05
  6. By: Thiago Dumont Oliveira (University of Siena); Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: In the second edition of his methodological Essay, Lionel Robbins attributes a significant role to uncertainty, dynamics and the time element. Understanding the motives that led to these revisions may offer important clues to assess what happened to political economy ever since, and how far economics has diverged from Robbins’ agenda. Our main claim is that these topics appeared on the second edition of the Essay because Robbins saw them as fundamental if economics (as a science) were to achieve its goal of being a useful tool for political economy, following the English Classical economists’ distinction between science and art. His conception of science was thus tailored to his interests in political economy, rejecting attempts to mimic the methods of the natural sciences by preserving the human element that makes economics a social science.
    Keywords: Lionel Robbins, Political Economy, Uncertainty, Time, Methodology of Economics
    JEL: B20 B31 B40
    Date: 2018–05
  7. By: Cécile EDLINGER; Maxime MERLI (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg); Antoine PARENT
    Abstract: In this paper, we propose an original analysis of advice given by financial analysts prior to WW1. Our paper focuses on the writings of A. Neymarck, one of the most popular French analysts in the early 20th Century. The creation of portfolios from a new database composed of the monthly returns of all the security types listed on the Paris Stock Exchange from 1903 to 1912 has provided results demonstrating that Neymarck correctly identified the risk in various sectors. The performances of the portfolios built according to Neymarck’s guidelines reveal the ranking announced by the analyst, both in terms of risk and in terms of return: the richer the investor, the riskier and the more profitable his portfolio was seen to be. Finally, the construction of optimal portfolios according to the Modern Portfolio Theory enables us to pinpoint the few imperfections of Neymarck’s advice, which nevertheless appears to be driven by solid financial analysis.
    Keywords: Portfolio advice, Efficiency, Financial Markets prior to WW1
    JEL: G11 G14 G15 N20 N23
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Kuhn, Moritz (University of Bonn); Schularick, Moritz (University of Bonn); Steins, Ulrike I. (University of Bonn)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a new long-run dataset based on archival data from historical waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances. The household-level data allow us to study the joint distributions of household income and wealth since 1949. We expose the central importance of portfolio composition and asset prices for wealth dynamics in postwar America. Asset prices shift the wealth distribution because the composition and leverage of household portfolios differ systematically along the wealth distribution. Middle-class portfolios are dominated by housing, while rich households predominantly own equity. An important consequence is that the top and the middle of the distribution are affected differentially by changes in equity and house prices. Housing booms lead to substantial wealth gains for leveraged middle-class households and tend to decrease wealth inequality, all else equal. Stock market booms primarily boost the wealth of households at the top of the distribution. This race between the equity market and the housing market shaped wealth dynamics in postwar America and decoupled the income and wealth distribution over extended periods. The historical data also reveal that no progress has been made in reducing income and wealth inequalities between black and white households over the past 70 years, and that close to half of all American households have less wealth today in real terms than the median household had in 1970.
    Keywords: Income and wealth inequality; Household portfolios; Historical micro data
    JEL: D31 E21 E44 N32
    Date: 2018–06–14
  9. By: Dobos, Sebastian
    Abstract: The historiographical and socio-economic topic of the 1918-1921 agrarian reform, marked by a considerable degree of difficulty due to a multitude of objective, quantitative as well as qualitative factors, represents a point of reference in the research endeavours focused on the social and economic evolution of Romania. In fact, the major difficulties in the scientific approaches dedicated to the reform initiated by decree in 1918 are inherently determined by the statistical and historical sources, the causes being the stages of registration, sampling, centralization and processing processes, as well as the material and personnel resources which were very limited at that time. The issue of statistical and economic data volume deficiencies can be easily observed upon consulting archived documents, which contain numerous modifications, alterations and other interventions, researchers encountering real difficulties in extracting data and exploiting their real potential. The effects of the 1921 agrarian reform on the evolution of the inter-war society of Iasi County were overall multiple and complex, influencing to a greater or lesser degree all spheres of activity: economy, politics, culture, a.s.o. Substantial changes in the agricultural property structure following the implementation of the agrarian reform resulted in the small peasant household as a basic economic unit in the primary sector of Iasi County. The inter-war agricultural censuses corroborated with the statistics compiled by the authorities show that land ownership in Iasi county underwent substantial changes, compared to the situation prior to the year 1918.
    Keywords: agricultural sciences, economic history, historiography, interdisciplinarity, rural economy
    JEL: N0 N30 N50
    Date: 2017–11–16
  10. By: Javed Ahmad Khan جاويد أحمد خان (Professor, Centre For West Asian Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi أستاذ ، مركز دراسات غرب آسيا - الجامعة الملية الإسلامية - نيودلهي - الهند)
    Abstract: Arab Islamic world of the last three centuries is generally seen as an era of Muslim’s intellectual decline, with no worthwhile breakthrough in the human intellectual development. On the contrary, this period saw a renaissance in Western philosophical and scientific development, and their political and economic domination even in Muslim countries. A number of studies in this regard have tried to trace out as what contributions Muslim made during this period of colonial domination in the Arab Islamic world? What were the sources of inspirations and rationale for their religious based socio-economic intellectual awakening particularly since mid-eighteenth century? For, the scholars in modern times have argued that Muslims intellectuals’ awakening of last two hundred years are basically taken from the European intellectual developments. Albert Hourani in his work Arabic Thought in the Liberal Age 1798-1939 has mentioned how the modernizing trend of political and social thought in the Arab Middle East changed during the nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth centuries, in response to the expanding influence of Europe (Hourani 1962). Muslim countries that came under Western influence or domination were awakened by the European development and Muslim theorists, leadership of the time, accepted the importance of acquisition of Western knowledge on technology as well as intellectualism. ينظر العالم الإسلامي العربي في القرون الثلاثة الأخيرة بشكل عام إلى حقبة من التدهور الفكري للمسلمين ، مع عدم وجود أي انفراج جدير بالاهتمام في التنمية الفكرية البشرية. على العكس ، شهدت هذه الفترة نهضة في التطور الفلسفي والعلمي الغربي ، وهيمنتها السياسية والاقتصادية حتى في البلدان الإسلامية. لقد حاول عدد من الدراسات في هذا الصدد تحديد ما هي المساهمات التي قدمها المسلمون خلال هذه الفترة من الهيمنة الاستعمارية في العالم العربي الإسلامي؟ ما هي مصادر الإلهام والأساس المنطقي لاستيقاظهم الديني الاجتماعي الاقتصادي القائم على أساس ديني خاصة منذ منتصف القرن الثامن عشر؟ ل ، وقد جادل العلماء في العصر الحديث أن الصحوة المسلمين المثقفين من مائتي سنة الماضية مأخوذة أساسا من التطورات الفكرية الأوروبية. ألبير حوراني في عمله لقد ذكر الفكر العربي في العصر الليبرالي 1798-1939 كيف تغير اتجاه التحديث للفكر السياسي والاجتماعي في الشرق الأوسط العربي خلال القرنين التاسع عشر والنصف الأول من القرن العشرين ، استجابة للتوسع في تأثير أوروبا (حوراني 1962). استيقظت البلدان الإسلامية التي دخلت تحت النفوذ أو الهيمنة الغربية من قبل التنمية الأوروبية ووافق المنظرين المسلمين ، وقيادة ذلك الوقت ، على أهمية اكتساب المعرفة الغربية على التكنولوجيا وكذلك الفكر
    Date: 2017–01
  11. By: Joan R. Rovira (Economic Studies Office, Barcelona Chamber of Commerce (ES))
    Abstract: We identify a set of key stylised facts characterising the evolution of the seven largest advanced economies from the 1960s to 2015 and develop a small one-sector model of growth and distribution broadly consistent with these facts. The model is used to explore the relationship between falling trend growth, the re-distribution of aggregate income towards profits and the concentration of corporate power and wealth. Theory is confronted with history to illustrate how changes in social structure can affect economic behaviour and performance. We argue that finance-led corporate restructuring, involving debt-financed corporate transactions, may have played a crucial role in shaping long-term patterns of growth and distribution.
    Keywords: Stagnation, Distribution, Growth, Financialisation, Heterodox Economics
    JEL: B22 E11 E12 E44 E65 G01 O11
    Date: 2017–05
  12. By: Giuliano, Paola (University of California, Los Angeles); Nunn, Nathan (Harvard University)
    Abstract: We construct a database, with global coverage, that provides measures of the cultural and environmental characteristics of the pre-industrial ancestors of the world's current populations. In this paper, we describe the construction of the database, including the underlying data, the procedure to produce the estimates, and the structure of the final data. We then provide illustrations of some of the variation in the data and provide an illustration of how the data can be used.
    Keywords: historical development, persistence, cultural traits, political institutions
    JEL: N00 Z10 Z13
    Date: 2018–05
  13. By: Christian Dippel; Stephan Heblich
    Abstract: A growing theoretical literature emphasizes the role that leaders play in shaping beliefs and social norms. We provide empirical evidence for such ‘civic leadership.’ We focus on the Forty-Eighters, a group of political refugees from Germany's failed 1848 revolutions, and their role in the struggle for the abolition of slavery in the United States. Our primary outcome is volunteering for the Union Army. Given the enormously high death toll during the Civil War, this variable provides a powerful measure of social norms against slavery. We show that towns where Forty-Eighters settled in the 1850s increased their Union Army enlistments by eighty percent over the course of the war. Using machine-learning techniques to infer soldiers' ancestry, we find that the Forty-Eighters had the biggest impact on the enlistment of German Americans, a smaller effect on English-speaking men (American and Irish), and yet a smaller effect on Scandinavian and Italian men. Forty-Eighters who fought in the war and were successful at raising a regiment had the biggest effect on enlistment, and Forty-Eighters also had a discernible effect in the field of battle, lowering their fellow soldiers' likelihood of desertion.
    JEL: D72 J61 N41
    Date: 2018–05
  14. By: Bakker, Gerben; Crafts, Nicholas; Woltjer, Pieter (Groningen University)
    Abstract: We develop new aggregate and sectoral Total Factor Productivity (TFP) estimates for the United States between 1899 and 1941 through better coverage of sectors and better-measured labor quality, and find TFP-growth was lower than previously thought, broadly based across sectors, and strongly variant intertemporally. We then test and reject three prominent claims. First, the 1930s did not have the highest TFP-growth of the twentieth century. Second, TFP-growth was not predominantly caused by four `great inventions?. Third, TFP-growth was not driven indirectly by spillovers from great inventions such as electricity. Instead, the creative-destruction-friendly American innovation system was the main productivity driver.
    Date: 2017
  15. By: Debarshi Das (Humanities and Social Sciences Department, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati)
    Abstract: This paper presents an interpretation of Marx’s rent theory. The three forms of rent, differential rent of type one and two, and absolute rent, have been elaborated and represented through algebra. Marx situated his theory in an agrarian economy characterized by the capitalist mode of production. Such conditions are not present in the agrarian economy of India, yet one can still borrow Marx’s analytical tools, the paper argues, to understand the contemporary agrarian India. Some observations on Indian agrarian economy have been offered in the end.
    Keywords: Keywords: Marx, absolute rent, organic composition of capital, landed property
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Deepankar Basu (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts - Amherst)
    Abstract: In a recent paper, I had proposed an analytical framework to understand Marx’s theory of ground-rent. An important question had been left unaddressed in the paper : how are the price and output levels (of the agricultural commodity) determined in a way that can both take account of fluctuations in market demand and also embed profit-maximizing behavior of the capitalist-farmers? In this note, I offer a simple way to think about the determination of equilibrium levels of price and output for the agricultural commodity that makes explicit two important dimensions: (a) the role of aggregate demand for the agricultural commodity, and (b) profit maximizing behavior of the capitalist farmers.
    Keywords: ground-rent, surplus value, Marx
    JEL: B51
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Jordá, Óscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.; Ward, Felix
    Abstract: This paper studies the synchronization of financial cycles across 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. The comovement in credit, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs in the past three decades. The sharp increase in the comovement of global equity markets is particularly notable. We demonstrate that fluctuations in risk premiums, and not risk-free rates and dividends, account for a large part of the observed equity price synchronization after 1990. We also show that U.S. monetary policy has come to play an important role as a source of fluctuations in risk appetite across global equity markets. These fluctuations are transmitted across both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes, but the effects are more muted in floating rate regimes.
    Keywords: asset prices; equity return premium; financial centers; financial cycles; policy spillovers
    JEL: E50 F33 F42 F44 G12 N10 N20
    Date: 2018–06
  18. By: Ferran Camprubí i Baiges (Universitat de Barcelona, Spain); Manuela Bosch Príncep (Universitat de Barcelona, Spain)
    Abstract: The goal of this research is to analyse how the Spanish insurance companies have managed their investments from the moment the liberalization of the sector begins in view of the future integration in the EEC until the implementation of the Solvency II regime (1984 -2015). The structure of the investment portfolio has been characterized by instruments of conservative risk profile. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: The main asset in the period under review is Spanish public debt, accounting for 27% of the sector's investments. The performance of the portfolio has performed very similar to the average interest rate on Treasury debt. Contrary to what might be expected, the recent sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone has had no impact on credit risk management, as the deterioration in the credit rating of the Kingdom of Spain has not led to a decline in investment in Spanish public bonds. The sector has redoubled its commitment to this asset, leaving out the dire economic consequences of a degradation of the rating of Spanish public debt to the category of junk bonds.
    Keywords: Insurance Investment, Spanish Sovereign Debt Crisis, Credit Risk Management
    JEL: G11 G22 N24
    Date: 2018–06
  19. By: Mark A. Carlson; Burcu Duygan-Bump
    Abstract: To implement monetary policy in the 1920s, the Federal Reserve utilized administered interest rates and conducted open market operations in both government securities and private money market securities, sometimes in fairly considerable amounts. We show how the Fed was able to effectively use these tools to influence conditions in money markets, even those in which it was not an active participant. Moreover, our results suggest that the transmission of monetary policy to money markets occurred not just through changing the supply of reserves but importantly through financial market arbitrage and the rebalancing of investor portfolios. The tools used in the 1920s by the Federal Reserve resemble the extraordinary monetary policy tools used by central banks recently and provide further evidence on their effectiveness even in ordinary times.
    Keywords: Monetary policy ; Unconventional monetary policy ; Central banking ; Administered rates ; Money markets ; Quantitative easing
    JEL: E52 E58 N22
    Date: 2018–03–09
  20. By: Roque B. Fernández
    Abstract: Desde mediados del siglo XX Argentina ha enfrentado diversos ciclos con inflación y desempleo. La persistencia de estos ciclos induce a pensar en factores estructurales basados en una puja política no resuelta por la distribución del ingreso. Un modelo que se presta para este tipo de análisis es el modelo presa - predador, originalmente construido para estudios biológicos, que Goodwin extiende a ciclos económicos generados por conflictos de clases. Este trabajo explora la existencia de soluciones dinámicas que tengan un comportamiento orbital similar al modelo presa-predador. Primero, se presenta una aplicación para estudiar el fenómeno del populismo en Argentina. Segundo, se aplica al estudio de la reforma monetaria que se identificó como “Plan Austral”. Y tercero, se aplica a la evaluación de un modelo de Metas de Inflación. Todos los modelos tienen formas reducidas extremas que sacrifican una presentación más amplia y comprensiva de estos fenómenos. El objetivo principal es servir como una introducción muy simplificada a la evaluación de soluciones dinámicas más complejas.
    Date: 2018–06
  21. By: ratulangi, nur
    Abstract: This article writes about the thoughts of Islamic economic figure Umar Bin Khattab during his caliphate as the 2nd khalifah of the Rashidin Khulafah. The method used is the historical approach of Islamic economic thought through a historical method that reveals the thought of the Islamic economic figure Umar Bin Khattab in the field of Islamic economics. From the results of the analysis it can be concluded that Umar Bin Khattab during his reign, gave many brilliant ideas and ideas and established practical, technical, and operational policies for a country. In the reign of Umar Bin Khattab, the basic practices and concepts of al-Hisbah were formed even he him self became his muhtasib. Economic system that prevailed in the Umar Bin Khattab is the forerunner of the growth of Islamic economy. The economy aims to prosper and prosper society to prevent poverty.
    Keywords: Keywords: Hisbah Umar Bin Khattab.
    JEL: B00 B12 B22
    Date: 2018–03–09
  22. By: Kramer, Bert S.; Milionis, Petros (Groningen University)
    Abstract: We study how domestic politics affected the decisions of countries to adhere to the classical gold standard. Using a variety of econometric techniques and controlling for a wide range of economic factors, we demonstrate that political constraints were important in the decision of countries to adopt the gold standard as well as in the decision to suspend it. Specifically we find that the probability of adherence to the gold standard was ceteris paribus lower for countries in which domestic politics were organized in a more open and democratic fashion. This effect appears to be driven largely by the extent of domestic political competition and was particularly relevant for peripheral countries.
    Date: 2018
  23. By: Akpa, Emeka
    Abstract: This study examined the short and long-run effects of private remittances on household consumption in Ghana from 1980 to 2016, controlling for structural breaks. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was used to investigate the relationship. Results showed that remittances positively impacted household consumption in Ghana in both the short and long-run howbeit, statistically insignificant. Hence, it was recommended, among other things that the government of Ghana collaborates with financial institutions to make remittance less expensive to encourage more remitting from the diaspora.
    Keywords: Remittances, Household Consumption, ARDL, Structural Breaks
    JEL: C32 F24
    Date: 2018–05–25
  24. By: Ho, Sin-Yu; Njindan Iyke, Bernard
    Abstract: In this paper, we re-assess the finance-growth-poverty linkage in Ghana during the period 1960–2015. We account for structural changes and omitted variable bias, using a modified multivariate distributed lag framework. We find financial development to cause economic growth, which in turn causes poverty reduction in Ghana. This has useful policy implications.
    Keywords: Financial Development; Economic Growth; Poverty Reduction; Ghana.
    JEL: C32 E44 I32
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Mariem Bougueroua (Département Économie, Université de Mostaganem); Laurent Carnis (IFSTTAR/AME/DEST - Dynamiques Economiques et Sociales des Transports - Communauté Université Paris-Est - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux)
    Abstract: This article analyses the road safety situation for Algeria since 1970 and its relation with the level of the economic development of the country. Applying the curve of Kuznets (1955) to road safety (especially for fatalities and injuries), the results show that there is such a curve for fatalities. However, such a relationship has not been verified for injuries. Moreover, the identified Kuznets curve for fatalities reached the turning point in Algeria. Despite an improvement of the economic situation, the large investment projects in infrastructures and transportation, economic development, yielding a positive impact on the road safety situation, a higher toll for fatalities and injuries could be expected if the authorities would not implement the appropriate countermeasures.
    Abstract: Cet article propose une analyse de la situation de l'insécurité routière en Algérie depuis 1970 et sa relation avec le niveau de développement économique du pays. L'approche de Kuznets (1955) est appliquée aux victimes des accidents routiers (tués et blessés lors d'un accident de la circulation), enregistrés pendant la période 1970-2015. Cette contribution identifie une relation de Kuznets pour les victimes tuées, mais pas pour les victimes blessées. Par ailleurs, les résultats de l'analyse montrent que cette relation a désormais atteint son maximum en Algérie (point d'inflexion). Malgré l'amélioration de la situation économique et les grands projets d'investissement notamment dans les infrastructures et les services de transports, le développement économique produit un impact positif sur la sécurité routière du pays, les autorités peuvent s'attendre à voir la situation se dégrader de nouveau si elles ne prennent pas des mesures appropriées.
    Keywords: Algeria,road safety,economic development,Kuznets curve,courbe de Kuznets,insécurité routière,développement économique,Algérie
    Date: 2018–04–25
  26. By: Prak, Maarten; Crowston, Clare; De Munck, Bert; Kissane, Christopher; Minns, Chris; Schalk, Ruben; Wallis, Patrick
    Abstract: One of the standard objections against citizenship systems and trade organizations in the premodern world has been their exclusiveness. Privileged access to certain professions and industries is seen as a disincentive for technological progress. Guilds, especially, have been portrayed as providing unfair advantages to established masters and their descendants, over immigrants and other outsiders. In this paper the results of detailed local investigations of the composition of citizenries and guild apprentices and masters is brought together, to find out to what extent this picture is historically correct. This data offers an indirect measurement of the accessibility of citizenship and guilds that allows insight into the mechanisms of exclusion and their impact. The paper finds that guild masterships were in most towns open to large numbers of immigrants and non-family, as were training markets for apprentices. Therefore, we argue, our understanding of urban and guild ‘monopolies’, and the measure of protection and reward they supplied to established citizens, is in need of serious revision.
    Keywords: guilds; Europe; institutions; social capital; inequality; labour markets
    JEL: D02 D72 L22 N33 N43
    Date: 2018
  27. By: Klaus Desmet; Romain Wacziarg
    Abstract: This paper conducts a systematic quantitative study of cultural convergence and divergence in the United States over time. Using the General Social Survey (1972-2016), we assess whether cultural values have grown more or less heterogeneous, both overall and between groups. Groups are defined according to 11 identity cleavages such as gender, religion, ethnic origin, family income quintiles, geographic region, education levels, etc. We find some evidence of greater overall heterogeneity after 1993 when averaging over all available values, yet on many issues heterogeneity changes little. The level of between-group heterogeneity is extremely small: the United States is very pluralistic in terms of cultural attitudes and values, but this diversity is not primarily the result of cultural divides between groups. On average across cleavages and values, we find evidence of falling between-group heterogeneity from 1972 to the late 1990s, and growing divides thereafter. We interpret these findings in light of a model of cultural change where intergenerational transmission and forces of social influence determine the distribution of cultural traits in society.
    JEL: D70 Z1
    Date: 2018–05
  28. By: Shinhye Chang (University of Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria); Stephen M. Miller (University of Nevada, Las Vegas); Mark E. Wohar (University of Nebraska at Omaha)
    Abstract: This study applies wavelet coherency analysis to explore the relationship between the U.S. economic growth volatility, and income and wealth inequality measures over the period 1917 to 2015 and 1962 to 2014. We consider the relationship between output volatility during positive and negative growth scenarios. Wavelet analysis simultaneously examines the correlation and causality between two series in both the time and frequency domains. Our findings provide evidence of positive correlation between the volatility and inequality across high (short-run)- and low-frequencies (long-run). The direction of causality varies across frequencies and time. Strong evidence exists that volatilities lead inequality at low-frequencies across income inequality measures from 1917 to 1997. After 1997, however, the direction of causality changes. In the time-domain, the time-varying nature of long-run causalities implies structural changes in the two series. These findings provide a more thorough picture of the relationship between the U.S. growth volatility and inequality measures over time and frequency domains, suggesting important implications for policy makers.
    Keywords: Growth volatility, Income and Wealth Inequalities, Wavelet analysis
    JEL: C49 O15
    Date: 2018–06
  29. By: Lisa Coiffard (Paris Institute of Political Studies, Sciences Po Paris)
    Abstract: The changes of the Hungarian financial regulation reflect the power of the Fidesz-government to challenge the European institutions. With the new structure of the Hungarian Central Bank (MNB) and unorthodox macroeconomic policy, Hungary uses the global trends in the financial sector to deviate from the European treaties. The complex European structure is not able to face the new challenges with its tools and is more than ever obliged to counter such behaviors to preserve the credibility and the values of the European project.
    Keywords: financial regulation, MNB, ECB, central banks
    JEL: E5 G2 H3 K4 N24 P2
    Date: 2018–06
  30. By: Clay, Karen (Carnegie Mellon University); Portnykh, Margarita (Carnegie Mellon University); Severnini, Edson R. (Carnegie Mellon University)
    Abstract: Using U.S county level data on lead in air for 1978-1988 and lead in topsoil in the 2000s, this paper examines the impact of lead exposure on a critical human function with societal implications – fertility. To provide causal estimates of the effect of lead on fertility, we use two sets of instruments: i) the interaction of the timing of implementation of Clean Air Act regulations and the 1944 Interstate Highway System Plan for the panel data and ii) the 1944 Interstate Highway System Plan for the cross sectional data. We find that reductions in airborne lead between 1978 and 1988 increased fertility rates and that higher lead in topsoil decreased fertility rates in the 2000s. The latter finding is particularly concerning, because it suggests that lead may continue to impair fertility today, both in the United States and in other countries that have significant amounts of lead in topsoil.
    Keywords: lead in air, lead in gasoline, lead in topsoil, fertility, Clean Air Act
    JEL: Q53 J13 N52 N92
    Date: 2018–05
  31. By: Piper, Alan T.
    Abstract: For the last five years, the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Gender Gap Index has been reporting that Nicaragua is one of the most gender equal countries in the world. This is the culmination of a remarkable increase in gender equality in Nicaragua during the past decade, charted by the same index. This paper discusses the Index and the Nicaraguan context and then refers to the results of several waves of the Latinobarometer to investigate whether the change in gender equality has affected Nicaraguans’ (and particularly Nicaraguan women’s) perceptions of their lives and society. The underlying question is therefore whether satisfaction with life, satisfaction with democracy, and opinions about gender equality have, in the average opinion of Nicaraguans, altered between the period when Nicaragua was placed low on the gender equality ranking to when it had attained a high rating on the index just a few years later. The findings, which come from ordered probit regression analysis, reveal some evidence of improvements over this time period.
    Keywords: Nicaragua; gender equality; Global Gender Gap Index; life satisfaction; Latinobarometer.
    JEL: I31 N36
    Date: 2018–05
  32. By: Fox, Jonathan; Klüsener, Sebastian; Myrskylä, Mikko
    Abstract: Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development might turn positive at high levels of development. The robustness of the reversal continues to be debated. We add to this discussion from a novel angle by considering whether such a reversal could also occur at the sub-national level within highly developed countries. Our contributions are both theoretical and empirical. We first discuss important trends which might foster the emergence of a positive fertility–development relationship across regions of highly developed countries. These include shifts in family policies, changes in the spatial organisation of the economic sphere, and selective international and internal migration processes. In order to explore whether we observe tendencies towards a reversal, we investigate data covering 20 European countries subdivided in 256 regions between 1990 and 2012. We document a weakening of the negative relationship between fertility and economic development within many countries, and among some countries the emergence of a positive relationship. These findings do not seem to be driven by postponement effects alone. However, there is substantial variation in the fertility and the eco
    Keywords: fertility; income; economic development; sub-national regions; regional variations; Europe
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2018–05–08
  33. By: Bowen, Alex; Kuralbayeva, Karlygash; Tipoe, Eileen L.
    Abstract: This paper estimates the share of jobs in the US that would benefit from a transition to the green economy, and presents different measures for the ease with which workers are likely to be able to move from non-green to green jobs. Using the US O*NET database and its definition of green jobs, 19.4% of US workers could currently be part of the green economy in a broad sense, although a large proportion of green employment would be ‘indirectly’ green, comprising existing jobs that are expected to be in high demand due to greening, but do not require significant changes in tasks, skills, or knowledge. Analysis of task content also shows that green jobs vary in ‘greenness', with very few jobs only consisting of green tasks, suggesting that the term ‘green’ should be considered a continuum rather than a binary characteristic. While it is easier to transition to indirectly green rather than directly green jobs, greening is likely to involve transitions on a similar scale and scope of existing job transitions. Non-green jobs generally appear to differ from their green counterparts in only a few skill-specific aspects, suggesting that most re-training can happen on-the-job. Network analysis shows that the green economy offers a large potential for short-run growth if job transitions are strategically managed.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2018–05–01

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.