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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2018‒04‒09
39 papers chosen by |
| By: | Federico, Giovanni; Schulze, Max-Stephan; Volckart, Oliver |
| Abstract: | The paper examines price convergence and increases in the efficiency of wheat markets across Europe from the mid-fourteenth to the early twentieth century. The analysis is based on a new data set of prices from more than 500 markets. Unlike previous research, we find that convergence was a predominantly pre-modern phenomenon. It started in the late fifteenth and reached a first high point in the early seventeenth century - a level of integration that was surpassed only in the nineteenth century. In terms of market integration, the ‘little divergence’ between parts of North-Western Europe and the rest of the continent appears since about 1600. Long-term improvements in market efficiency began in the early sixteenth century, with advances being temporarily as uneven as in price convergence. We trace this to uneven institutional change and the non-synchronous spread of modern media and systems of information transmission that affected the ability of merchants to react to news. |
| Keywords: | European economic history; market integration; price convergence; market efficiency; long-run development; little divergence; dynamic factor analysis |
| JEL: | N13 N14 N53 N54 N73 N74 N90 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:87184&r=his |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Pierre Siklos |
| Abstract: | Central banks have evolved for close to four centuries. This paper argues that for two centuries central banks caught up to the strategies followed by the leading central banks of the era; the Bank of England in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and the Federal Reserve in the twentieth century. It also argues that, by the late 20th century, small open economies were more prone to adopt a new policy regime when the old one no longer served its purpose whereas large, less open, and systemically important economies were more reluctant to embrace new approaches to monetary policy. Our study blends the quantitative with narrative explanations of the evolution of central banks. We begin by providing an overview of the evolution of monetary policy regimes taking note of the changing role of financial stability over time. We then provide some background to an analysis that aims, via econometric means, to quantify the similarities and idiosyncrasies of the ten central banks and the extent to which they represent a network of sorts where, in effect, some central banks learn from others. |
| Keywords: | monetamonetary policy regimes, inflation, small open economies |
| JEL: | E02 E31 E32 E42 E58 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoo:wpaper:17105&r=his |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo |
| Abstract: | Allan Meltzer was one of the leading monetary economists of the twentieth century. Allan was a key player in the debates over Monetarist and Keynesian doctrines as well as the debates over how to conduct monetary policy. He was always a strong advocate for rules-based monetary and lender of last resort policy. A salient part of his contribution was his monumental two volume History of the Federal Reserve 1913 to 1986 (2003 and 2010). In this essay, I present the main arguments of the History and provide an evaluation his contribution. |
| Keywords: | Meltzer, Federal Reserve, monetary economics, monetary policy |
| JEL: | N12 N22 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoo:wpaper:17107&r=his |
| By: | de la Croix, David; Schneider, Eric B.; Weisdorf, Jacob |
| Abstract: | In explaining England's early industrial development, previous research has highlighted that wealthy pre-industrial elites had more surviving offspring than their poorer counter- parts. Thus, entrepreneurial traits spread and helped England grow rich. We contest this view, showing that lowerclass reproduction rates were no different from the elites when accounting for singleness and childlessness. Elites married less and were more often childless. Many died without descendants (decessit sine prole). We find that the middle classes had the highest reproduction and argue that this advantage was instrumental to England's economic success because the middle class invested most strongly in human capital. |
| Keywords: | fertility; marriage; childlessness; European marriage pattern; Industrial Revolution; evolutionary advantage; social class |
| JEL: | J12 J13 N33 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:87153&r=his |
| By: | Fabrizio Filioli Uranio (LARHRA - LAboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes - UMR5190 - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The formation of a squadron of galleys operating in the war in the Mediterranean often clashed with financial needs. The papacy and the Apostolic Camera had limited resources for equipping galleys, and the path of direct taxation of the Papal State's communities was not always practicable. The creation of monti by the Apostolic Camera was undoubtedly an instrument that enabled the popes to finance war expenditure with greater continuity. The Camera's first monte, Monte della Fede, was founded in 1526 by Clement VII Medici to raise 200,000 gold scudi to cover military expenses against the Turks. The Pope considered an imminent collapse of Christianity against the infidels to be possible, and in April 1542 decided to equip three galleys, in addition to the three already in service. Pope Paul III was aware of the financial problems that might ensue from increased military expenditure, in particular the doubling of the fleet of galleys. Therefore, he ordered the cities and lands under his rule, both mediate and immediate subiectae, to pay, for a period of six months, the amount required to maintain the galleys, crews, provisions and weapons. The greatest effort to equip war galleys in the sixteenth century came under Pope Sixtus V (1585-1590), who dismantled the ancient consistory system with his bull Immensa Aeterni Dei, 1588, and replaced it with a complex system of fifteen permanent congregations, nine to deal with the spiritual matters of the Church and six with the temporal affairs of the State. In 1588 the Pope enacted a tax of 102,500 scudi per year for a permanent squadron of ten galleys, which patrolled the State's coasts and took part in naval operations against the Sultan together with allied Catholic fleets. |
| Date: | 2016–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01728638&r=his |
| By: | Don Bredin (University College Dublin, Ireland); Stilianos Fountas (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses historical US infl ation data covering over two centuries, to examine the impact of the establishment of the US Federal Reserve on average US in flation and infl ation uncertainty. We find that the founding of the Fed is associated with higher average US infl ation and lower infl ation uncertainty. Critically, these results are not driven by the post-1980 period, where the Fed policy is characterized by the dual mandate. Other important results are that the Gold Standard period is associated with both lower infl ation and in flation uncertainty, and that banking and stock market crises are a positive determinant of infl ation uncertainty and perhaps infl ation. The two world wars and the US civil war are associated with both higher infl ation and higher infl ation uncertainty. In addition, we find that the central bank has responded to increasing in flation uncertainty in a stabilizing manner in support of the Holland hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric GARCH, recession, infl ation uncertainty. |
| JEL: | C22 E31 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2018_04&r=his |
| By: | Stefano Gagliarducci; Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato; Francesco Sobbrio; Guido Tabellini |
| Abstract: | What is the role of the media in coordinating and mobilizing insurgency against a foreign military occupation? We analyze this question in the context of the Nazi-fascist occupation of Italy during WWII. We study the effect of BBC radio counter-propaganda (Radio Londra) on the intensity of internal resistance to the Nazi-fascist regime. Using variation in monthly sunspot activities affecting the sky-wave propagation of BBC broadcasting towards Italy, we show that BBC radio had a strong impact on political violence. We provide further evidence to prove that BBC radio played an important role in coordinating resistance activities, but had no lasting role in motivating the population against the fascist regime. |
| Keywords: | media, BBC, counter-propaganda, insurgency, violence, WWII, sunspots |
| JEL: | D74 L82 N44 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6923&r=his |
| By: | Egbert, Henrik |
| Abstract: | This paper puts Marcel Mauss’s concept on money in the context of economic theories. Mauss articulated his thoughts on money in the first decades of the 20th century. They are considerably less known and discussed than his famous essay on ‘the gift’. Nevertheless, his contributions on the origin and function of money are worth being examined in economics as well as in economic-anthropological discourse. This essay relates Mauss’s ideas to microeconomic theories. The argument pursued is that his concepts on money are both compatible with neoclassical, and with New Institutional Economic theories. For this purpose, the text addresses three parallels. |
| Keywords: | Marcel Mauss; money; the gift; history of economic thought |
| JEL: | B15 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2018–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85522&r=his |
| By: | Gazeley, Ian (University of Sussex); Holmes, Rose (University of Sussex); Newell, Andrew T. (University of Sussex); Reynolds, Kevin (University of Sussex); Gutierrez Rufrancos, Hector (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | In this article we map, for the first time, the time-path of the size distribution of income among working class households in Western Europe, 1890-1960. To do this we exploit data extracted from a large number of newly digitised household expenditure surveys. Many are not representative of the population, or even of their target-subpopulation, as methods of social investigation were initially primitive, though rapidly evolving over this period. We overcome the consequent problem of comparability by exploiting our knowledge of the methods used by early social investigators to estimate of the scale of known biases. For some we have the original household data, but in most cases we have tables by income group. One by-product of this work is an evaluation of the range of estimation methods for distributional statistics from these historical tables of grouped data. Our central finding is that inequality among working households does not follow the general downward trend in inequality for the early part of the century found in labour share and top income studies. Contrary to Kuznets' prediction, our evidence suggests that on average income inequality among European working households remained stable for three generations from the late nineteenth century onwards. |
| Keywords: | inequality, working households, Europe, 20th century |
| JEL: | N33 N34 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11355&r=his |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo |
| Abstract: | The recent rise of populist anti-globalization political movements has led to concerns that the current wave of globalization that goes back to the 1870s may end in turmoil just like the first wave that ended after World War I. It is too soon to tell. The decline and then levelling off of trade and capital flows in recent years reflects the drastic decline in global real income during the Great Recession. Other factors at work include the slowdown in the growth rate of China and the reversal of the extended international supply chains developed in the 1990s, as well as increased financial regulation across the world after the crisis. This suggests either a pause in the pace of integration or more likely a slowing down, rather than a reversal. |
| Keywords: | Â |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoo:wpaper:17103&r=his |
| By: | Mario Chacon; Jeffrey Jensen (Division of Social Science) |
| Abstract: | The extension of the franchise to former slaves in the post-Civil War American South provides a unique case to study the fiscal consequences of democratization. Black suffrage was not determined internally but was a consequence of military defeat and externally enforced by the U.S. Army during Reconstruction. We employ a triple-difference model to estimate the joint impact of enfranchisement and federal enforcement on taxation. We find that occupied counties where black voters comprised larger shares of the electorate levied higher taxes compared to similar non-occupied counties. These counties then experienced a comparatively greater decline in scal revenues in the decades following the end of Reconstruction. We also demonstrate that in these occupied counties, black politicians were more likely to be elected, and political murders by white supremacist groups were less likely. These fi ndings provide evidence on the key role of federal troops in limiting political capture by Southern elites. |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nad:wpaper:20180016&r=his |
| By: | Ramos-Toro, Diego |
| Abstract: | This paper establishes the detrimental effect of historical conflict on contemporary gender disparities. Such effects appear to be absent when focusing on female labor participation, revealing that long-run determinants of women’s positioning do not opperate solely through labor outcomes. Further, a historical compilation of Mexican conflicts was digitized and geo-referenced to establish the persistence of such results at a subnational level. Causal estimates are achieved at this level by exploiting exogenous changes introduced by the Columbian exchange and by long-run reductions in precipitation. Finally, the document examines gender views of US respondents and of second-generation migrants in Europe to show that culture constiutes a mechanism through which gender biases emerge and consolidate. |
| Keywords: | Historical conflict, Gender Disparities, Female Labor Force Participation |
| JEL: | J16 N30 Z10 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85045&r=his |
| By: | Claire Lemercier (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at inserting courts, their archives, and conflict resolution more generally in debates on the funding of preindustrial business. Part I sums up findings in French judicial sources from the literature. Those sources depict an economy where corporations, the stock exchange, and banks played a marginal role; where many goods were produced by sub-sub-contractors ultimately working for wholesale merchants; where supplier credit and commercial paper, along with family loans, were the main sources of credit; and yet an economy that was in many ways modern and growing, even if it was based on institutions deemed more or less archaic after the 1870s. Courts, of course, were part of these institutions. Part II discusses whether and how they mattered for the funding of business. |
| Keywords: | 19th-century France,commercial courts,partnerships,bankruptcies,credit |
| Date: | 2017–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01699855&r=his |
| By: | L. De Benedictis; V. Licio; AM. Pinna |
| Abstract: | The paper provides evidence of the causal effect of infrastructure on trade costs, for the 107 Italian provinces (NUTS3), testing whether current differences in trade costs among provinces can be traced back to the structure of the historical Roman road network. By constructing a specific measure of the extent of the Roman road network for each Italian province and relying on an instrumental variables approach, the empirical analysis shows that having an integrated road system, as the one built during the Roman Empire, plays an important role in current international trade. The study confirms not only the importance of history for contemporary economic development, but also the significant role played by the historical infrastructure in shaping geography and in determining current trade patterns via the influence on today's infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | trade costs;Roman roads;Provinces;Long-term effects of history;italy |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201801&r=his |
| By: | Roger E A Farmer |
| Abstract: | I review the contribution and influence of Milton Friedman’s 1968 presidential address to the American Economic Association. I argue that Friedman’s influence on the practice of central banking was profound and that his argument in favour of monetary rules was responsible for thirty years of low and stable inflation in the period from 1979 through 2009. I present a critique of Friedman’s position that market-economies are self-stabilizing and I describe an alternative reconciliation of Keynesian economics with Walrasian general equilibrium theory from that which is widely accepted today by most neo-classical economists. My interpretation implies that government should intervene actively in financial markets to stabilize economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Keynesian economics, monetarism, natural rate of unemployment |
| JEL: | E3 E4 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:491&r=his |
| By: | Volckart, Oliver |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses which options medieval political authorities had to satisfy the demand for complex currencies. It distinguishes several models, each of which caused problems: A first one, where the basic unit was supplemented by a range of other denominations whose weight and purity where exactly proportional. While this did not take the proportionally larger labour costs involved in the production of small change into account, the second model did: here, small change had an over proportionally high content of base metal. In consequence, the stable numerical ratios between units of the same currency began to shift. The third option involved using gold for high purchasing power coins; a strategy that made currencies vulnerable to changes in the relative market prices of gold and silver. Again, the outcome was a that the numerical ratios between units of the same currency became instable. The paper discusses how political authorities chose between these options, how they supplied their mints with the necessary bullion and how minting was organised. |
| Keywords: | Medieval monetary policies; mining; minting |
| JEL: | E42 E52 N13 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:87152&r=his |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Arunima Sinha |
| Abstract: | We examine the first QE program through the lens of an open-market operation under- taken by the Federal Reserve in 1932, at the height of the Great Depression. This program entailed large purchases of medium- and long-term securities over a four-month period. There were no prior announcements about the size or composition of the operation, how long it would be put in place, and the program ended abruptly. We use the narrative record to conduct an event study analysis of the operation. To do this, we construct a dataset of weekly-level Treasury holdings of the Federal Reserve in 1932, and the daily term structure of yields obtained from newspaper quotes. The event study indicates that the 1932 pro- gram dramatically lowered medium- and long-term Treasury yields; the declines in Treasury Notes and Bonds around the start of the operation were as large as 128 and 42 basis points respectively. A significant proportion of this decline in yields is attributed to the portfolio composition effect. We then use a segmented markets model to analyze the channel through which the open-market purchases affected the economy, namely portfolio rebalancing and signaling effects. Quarterly data from 1920-32 is used to estimate the model with Bayesian methods. We find that the significant degree of financial market segmentation in this period made the historical open market purchase operation more effective than QE in stimulating output growth. Additionally, if the Federal Reserve had continued its operations in 1932, and used the announcement strategy of the QE operation, the upturn in economic activity during the Great Depression could have been achieved sooner. |
| Keywords: | Â |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoo:wpaper:16113&r=his |
| By: | Roses, Joan R.; Wolf, Nikolaus |
| Abstract: | We provide the first long-run dataset of regional employment structures and regional GDP and GDP per capita in 1990 international dollars, stretching over more than 100 years. These data allow us to compare regions over time, among each other, and to other parts of the world. After some brief notes on methodology we describe the basic patterns in the data in terms of some key dimensions: variation in the density of population and economic activity, the spread of industry and services and the declining role of agriculture, and changes in the levels of GDP and GDP per capita. We next discuss patterns of convergence and divergence over time and their explanations in terms of short-run adjustment and long-run fundamentals. Also, we document for the first time a secular decrease in spatial coherence from 1900 to 2010. We find a U-shaped development in geographic concentration and regional income inequality, similar to the finding of a U-shaped pattern of personal income inequality. |
| Keywords: | regional inequality; Europe; long-run |
| JEL: | D31 N1 N9 R1 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:87242&r=his |
| By: | Macher, Flora |
| Abstract: | The current literature is inconclusive on the relative importance of foreign and domestic factors in bringing about the Austrian financial crisis in 1931. This paper offers new data to bring further clarity to this issue and emphasises the importance of a domestic factor: universal banks’ exposure to industrial enterprises. Industrial enterprises were the universal banks’ main borrowers and creditors. During the 1920s they did not perform well, and made the universal banks insolvent. The Credit-Anstalt, which became an ‘acquirer of last resort’ for weak universal banks during the 1920s, may have avoided its own demise had it been spared of one bank’s, the Unionbank’s assets. |
| Keywords: | Great Depression; banking crisis; Credit-Anstalt; 1931; Central Europe; Austria |
| JEL: | N24 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:87151&r=his |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the co-evolution of monetary policy and financial stability for a number of countries across four exchange rate regimes from 1880 to the present. I present historical evidence on the incidence, costs and determinants of financial crises, combined with narratives on some famous financial crises. I then focus on some empirical historical evidence on the relationship between credit booms, asset price booms and serious financial crises. My exploration suggests that financial crises have many causes, including credit driven asset price booms, which have become more prevalent in recent decades, but that in general financial crises are very heterogeneous and hard to categorize. Two key historical examples stand out in the record of serious financial crises which were linked to credit driven asset price booms and busts: the 1920s and 30s and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. The question that arises is whether these two 'perfect storms' should be grounds for permanent changes in the monetary and financial environment. I raise some doubts. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, financial stability, financial crises, credit driven asset price booms |
| JEL: | E3 E42 G01 N1 N2 |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoo:wpaper:17108&r=his |
| By: | Thu Dao (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, University of Bielefeld); Frédéric Docquier (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain, FNRS - Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique [Bruxelles], FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Mathilde Maurel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Pierre Schaus (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century, for two skill groups, and for all relevant pairs of countries. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct a backcasting exercise which demonstrates that our model fits the past trends in international migration very well, and that historical trends were mostly governed by demographic changes. We then describe a set of migration projections for the 21st century. In line with backcasts, our world migration prospects and emigration rates from developing countries are mainly governed by socio-demographic changes: they are virtually insensitive to the technological environment. As far as OECD countries are concerned, we predict a highly robust increase in immigration pressures in general (from 12 in 2010 to 17-19% in 2050 and 25-28%in 2100), and in European immigration in particular (from 15% in 2010 to 23-25% in 2050 and 36-39% in 2100). Using development policies to curb these pressures requires triggering unprecedented economic takeoffs in migrants countries of origin. Increasing migration is therefore a likely phenomenon for the 21st century, and this raises societal and political challenges for most industrialized countries. |
| Keywords: | international migration,migration prospects,world economy,inequality |
| Date: | 2018–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01743799&r=his |
| By: | Natalia A. Tuliakova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In the early 19th century the words predanie, legenda, and skazanie started to be used by Russian writers as a generic label. The present paper considers the texts with these labels in their titles or subtitles written by Vladimir Odoevsky. First, constituent features of the corpus of the texts labeled as predanie are identified. Then the same categories are explored in the texts marked as legenda and skazanie. The aim of the research is to ascertain whether these texts are built according to similar or different generic patterns. I argue that Odoevsky treated the notions differently, and the generically labelled texts reveal different genre strategies. |
| Keywords: | V. Odoevsky; Russian literature; genre; generic label; legend; tradition; tale |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:26/ls/2018&r=his |
| By: | Scott A. Carson |
| Abstract: | The body mass index (BMI) reflects current net nutrition and health during economic development. This study introduces a difference-in-decompositions approach to show that although 19th century African-American current net nutrition was comparable to working class whites, it was made worse-off with the transition to free-labor. BMI reflects net nutrition over the life-course, and like stature, slave children’s BMIs increased more than whites as they approached entry into the adult slave labor force. Agricultural worker’s net nutrition was better than workers in other occupations but was worse-off under free-labor and industrialization. Within-group BMI variation was greater than across-group variation, and white within-group variation associated with socioeconomic status was greater than African-Americans. |
| Keywords: | BMI variation, current net nutrition, Oaxaca decomposition |
| JEL: | C10 C40 D10 I10 N30 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6932&r=his |
| By: | Nicholas Oulton (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); National Institute of Economic and Social Research; Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence) |
| Abstract: | I propose a new explanation for the UK productivity puzzle. I graft the Lewis (1954) model onto a standard Solow growth model. What I call the neo-Lewis model is identical to the Solow model in good times. But in bad times foreign demand for a country’s exports is constrained below potential supply. This makes labour productivity growth depend negatively on the growth of labour input. I also argue that the neo-Lewis model can explain the fall in TFP growth, in the UK and elsewhere, after 2007. The predictions of the neo-Lewis model are tested on data for 23 advanced countries and also on a larger sample of 52 countries and find support. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, Slowdown, TFP, Capital, Lewis, Immigration |
| JEL: | E24 O41 O47 J24 F43 F44 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1809&r=his |
| By: | Deepankar Basu (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts - Amherst) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a unified analytical treatment of Marx’s theory of ground-rent, building on the analysis that is available in Volume Three of Capital. Since ground-rent is a transformation of surplus profit generated in agriculture, the main argument is developed in two steps. In the first step, I derive results on the existence of surplus profit in capitalist agriculture in the absence of landed property. In the second step, I used these results on surplus profit to arrive at the total ground-rent that is appropriated by the owners of land, and also decompose it into the three components that Marx highlighted: absolute rent, differential rent I, and differential rent II. I argue that the power of Marx’s analysis lies in the fact that it can be generalised far beyond the domain of agriculture, which he had analysed, and can illuminate the emergence of rent in any system of capitalist commodity production that uses privately owned non-produced resources that is limited in quantity. Hence, Marx’s analysis of ground-rent can be used to investigate many interesting issues in contemporary capitalism. |
| Keywords: | ground-rent, surplus value, Marx |
| JEL: | B51 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2018-04&r=his |
| By: | Timothy Kane |
| Abstract: | Does the US economy perform better when the president of the United States is a Democrat or a Republican? This paper explores the economic growth rate during different presidencies using data from 1949 to 2016, and confirms the Democratic-Republican gap while also showing the gap depends entirely on an unrealistic lag structure. The gap disappears and loses significance when lags of four, three, or even two quarters are considered, which is what history and political science recommend is appropriate given the lag between political actions and economic consequences. A superior method of overlapping presidential responsibility for transition periods is presented. |
| Keywords: | U.S. Presidency, Economic Growth, Political Party |
| JEL: | D72 E23 E32 E65 N12 N42 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoo:wpaper:17101&r=his |
| By: | Vasilios Plakandaras (Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace, Komotini, Greece); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Luis A. Gil-Alana (Department of Economics, University of Navarra, Spain); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha USA, and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, UK.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we focus on the stochastic (chaotic) attributes of the US dollar-based exchange rates for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) using a long-run monthly dataset covering 1812M01-2017M12, 1814M01-2017M12, 1822M07-2017M12, 1948M08-2017M12, and 1844M01-2017M12, respectively. For our purpose, we consider the Lyapunov exponents, robust to nonlinear and stochastic systems, in both full—samples and in rolling windows. For comparative purposes, we also evaluate a long-run dataset of a developed currency market, namely British pound over the period of 1791M01-2017M12. Our empirical findings detect chaotic behavior only episodically for all countries before the dissolution of the Bretton Woods system, with the exception of the Russian ruble. Overall, our findings suggest that the establishment of the free floating exchange rate system have altered the path of exchange rates removing chaotic dynamics from the phenomenon, and hence, the need for policymakers to intervene in the currency markets for the most important emerging market bloc, should be carefully examined. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate, chaos, Lyapunov exponent |
| JEL: | C46 E52 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201822&r=his |
| By: | Hyunju Lee (University of Minnesota); Alessandra Fogli (Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the geographic dimension of innovation. Innovation is the critical component of long term prosperity and it is unevenly distributed across US. Using data on 1.8 million US patents and their citation properties, we map the innovation network of all major US cities over the last three decades. We find that the innovation gap among cities, which was shrinking until 1980, has recently started growing, generating divergence. We develop a network model of cities that captures the knowledge spillovers within and across industries as well as within and across cities, and calibrate it using information on the patterns of patents citations. We show that the IT revolution, by reducing the cost of information exchange across cities, induced an endogenous response of the network structure of cities. This change in network structure can explain a large part of the recent divergence in innovation patterns across cities, and is consistent with a number of stylized facts about the evolution of US cities over the past thirty years. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed017:1630&r=his |
| By: | Fabrizio Filioli Uranio (LARHRA - LAboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes - UMR5190 - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Gaetano Sabatini (Università degli Studi Roma Tre) |
| Abstract: | This article aims at studying the formation process of personal identities of men forced to work at the oar in Naples at the end of the 16th century in comparison with the Kingdom of Valencia at the beginning of the 17th. At that time, Naples and Valencia were two of the most important slave markets as well as trading cities of the Spanish Empire. The research will take into account two types of sources that have remained largely unexplored by historiography to date, and especially a book dating back to 1585 detailing the biographies of 657 slaves. This will make it possible to focus in depth on slaves identities and in particular on the estimation process regarding their price. Who were the slaves? How was their price calculated? What was the relationship between their price and personal 'identity'? What was the difference between their use-value and trading value? In general, what were the negotiation processes underpinning the markets of men and what was the role played by the slaves themselves? These are the main questions the project aims to answer. The idea is that aspects involved in negotiation processes were at the same time economic, social and psychological, insofar as they significantly affected self-perception. |
| Abstract: | In questo articolo si intende studiare il processo di formazione delle identità personali dei forzati e degli schiavi delle galere a Napoli alla fine del XVI secolo, confrontadolo con dati relativi al Regno di Valencia al principio del XVII. In quella fase storica Napoli e Valencia erano certamente due tra i principali nodi commerciali e mercati della schiavitù dell'impero spagnolo. In questa ricerca vengono prese in considerazione due tipi di fonti diverse, rimaste per lo più inesplorate dalla storiografia. In particolar modo, si vuol mettere in evidenza il contenuto di un registro napoletano del 1585 che presenta le biografie di 657 schiavi, rendendo possibile far luce sulle identità degli schiavi e dei forzati e, soprattutto, sul processo di definizione del loro prezzo. Chi erano gli schiavi? Come veniva calcolato il loro prezzo? Qual era la relazione tra il loro prezzo e la loro identità personale? Qual era la differenza tra il loro valore d'uso e il loro valore di scambio? In generale quali erano i processi di negoziazione interni ai mercati? E qual era il ruolo svolto dagli stessi schiavi nella negoziazione? La proposta che qui si avanza è che nei processi di negoziazione agissero fattori non solo economici, ma anche sociali e psicologici, che potevano arrivare a riguardare la stessa percezione che gli schiavi avevano di sé. PAROLE CHIAVE: Schiavitù mediterranea, forzati, identità personali, valore d'uso, valore di scambio, processi di negoziazione. |
| Keywords: | forced men,personal identities,use value,trading value,negotiation processes,Mediterranean slavery |
| Date: | 2017–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01728641&r=his |
| By: | Martin Shubik (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Money is a mystery and ?nancial institutions are often regarded as guardians and promoters of the mystery. These sketches are designed to help any reader interested in, but not technically trained in economics, understand markets, money, credit and the evolution of a mass market system set in the rich context of its political environment and society. We all want a good society. What is a good society is given by our joint vision, mutual respect and social concern but the implementation of the vision calls for the use and understanding of money, markets and ?nance. The e?icient functioning of a dynamic economy calls for the presence of money and ?nancial institutions. The great variety of ?nancial institutions in any advanced economy requires an understanding of what the whole looks like. Verbal description provides an overarching view of the mixture of history, law, philosophy, custom, habit, and political structure that supplies the background for the functioning of the economy. This has been vividly illustrated by Adam Smith, his teacher the Reverend Francis Hutcheson and his close friend David Hume. There are two di?erent but highly allied themes covered here. The ?rst explains the worth of economic theory and its importance while connecting it with the world of politics in which the economy dwells. The second is the application of economic thought to the operating problems of every society. The ?rst theme is covered in the ?rst nine chapters. Chapters 1, 2, and 3 supply the rich context of history, society, polity and law in which every economy is embedded. These chapters require no symbols or technical depth to be understood. In contrast Chapters 4 to 9 o?er a reasonably nontechnical exposition of some of the considerable development in formal economic theory pertaining to money and ?nancial institutions as economics becomes more scienti?c, balancing quantitative measures with quali?cations that help to explain what the numbers mean. The second theme is developed in Chapters 10-13 where economic theory with all of its abstractions has to be connected with social and political reality before it can be of use. This calls for both and understanding of physical and social facts, and an appreciation of the role of moral sentiment. Chapters 13 and 14 consider some alternative scenarios that we face in the near future. |
| Keywords: | Evolution of money, Coordination, Division of labor |
| JEL: | C70 D21 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2118r&r=his |
| By: | Velde, Francois R. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | I examine the Neapolitan public banks, a group of non-profit institutions that emerged in the late sixteenth century, in the context of the early public banks that existed elsewhere in early modern Europe. In terms of size and stability they compare well with their peers, in spite of a difficult political and economic environment. They were also remarkably financially advanced for their time. Their success is likely due to their ownership structure, governance, and well managed relationship with the monarchical authorities. |
| Keywords: | Central bank; public banks; Naples (Italy) |
| JEL: | E58 N13 |
| Date: | 2018–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2018-05&r=his |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Andrew T. Levin |
| Abstract: | We consider how a central bank digital currency (CBDC) can transform all aspects of the monetary system and facilitate the systematic and transparent conduct of monetary policy. Drawing on a very long strand of literature in monetary economics, we find a compelling rationale for establishing a CBDC that serves as a stable unit of account, a practically costless medium of exchange, and a secure store of value. In particular, the CBDC should be universally accessible and interest-bearing, and the central bank should adjust its interest rate to foster true price stability. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy frameworks, payment technologies, simple rules. |
| JEL: | B12 B13 B22 E42 E52 E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoo:wpaper:17104&r=his |
| By: | Angel de la Fuente; Rafael Doménech |
| Abstract: | Utilizando datos de la EPA, en este trabajo se extienden hasta 2016 las series anuales del nivel educativo de la población para España y sus regiones elaboradas en de la Fuente y Doménech (2016) para el período 1960-2011. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2018-07&r=his |
| By: | Henrik Egbert (Anhalt University of Applied Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This short note illustrates how social structures and behavior of scientists in the societal sub-system of open science resemble patterns analyzed in the Gift, an essay written by Marcel Mauss nearly 100 years ago. The presented analysis goes beyond existing interpretations of gift giving in science. The latter has mainly focused on the exchange of knowledge and citations. I argue that the Gift explains also identity, competition, co-opetition, rituals, and punishment. Mauss’s Gift is seen as a complementary model to existing economic and sociological approaches regularly used to analyze structures and behavior in open science. By accentuating such an anthropological approach, I conclude that the Gift provides explanations of the stability and the expansion of the open science community. |
| Keywords: | open science; scientific competition; gift; Marcel Mauss; reciprocity; anthropology of open science |
| JEL: | A12 A14 Z11 Z13 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2018-04&r=his |
| By: | Fabrizio Filioli Uranio (LARHRA - LAboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes - UMR5190 - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | During the 16th and 17th centuries, the Papal States conducted a policy aiming at arming a fleet of galleys. However, the efforts to obtain a permanent fleet were often interrupted by the financial problems of the State, which could not afford the coast of arming and administrating the aforementioned galleys. Nevertheless, issuing new taxes and, in particular, rising the level of public debt, allowed the popes to exceed their budgetary constrains. Thus, an increasing public debt policy, as well as the asientos stipulated especially with the Genoeses, enabled the Papal States to maintain a permanent fleet of galleys. |
| Abstract: | En los siglos XVI y XVII el Estado pontificio mantuvo, con mayor o menor éxito, una política de armamento de una flota de galeras. El cumplimiento del objetivo de armar una escuadra permanente de navíos se vio, sin embargo, obstaculizado por las dificultades financieras del Estado, dificultades tan grandes que hicieron imposible sostener los gastos para gestionar una flota permanente. La emisión de nuevos impuestos y, sobre todo, la emisión de la nueva deuda pública permitieron a los pontífices superar las dificultades del presupuesto. De igual manera, los asientos del siglo XVII, estipulados por la Cámara Apostólica sobre todo con los genoveses, permitieron finalmente armar una escuadra de galeras. |
| Keywords: | Taxes and money,Public debt,nepotism,Galleys,Galeras,Impuestos,Deuda pública,Asientos,nepotismo |
| Date: | 2016–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01728640&r=his |
| By: | Nidhi Kaushal (Eng.at I.I.T. Roorkee, India); Sanjit Mishra (Eng.at I.I.T. Roorkee, India) |
| Abstract: | Principles have a significant place in the civilization. These standards were deep-rooted in the psychological framework of mind. In India, these ordinary strategies set up by ancient people have been accepted and followed in today’s modern world of competition. We have focused this research paper on the lessons of management from usual customs. We interviewed vegetable vendors to learn management lessons from their life. Data have been taken from the smaller regions. We found that they have conventional values for management of their business. They have a strong vision and set of beliefs, which stand them with profit in terms of values rather than money in the modern competitive world. The hypothesis included that the conventional management followed by common people has its strong place in modern society. We have described the supremacy of traditional management in India and its implication upon the modern management concepts of profit maximization. |
| Keywords: | Belief, Custom, Management, Strategy, Wisdom |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:npaper:002&r=his |
| By: | Trajtemberg, David; Pontoni, Gabriela A. |
| Abstract: | El artículo propone debatir con aquellos argumentos que consideran que, a pesar del intenso desarrollo de la negociación colectiva sucedida en Argentina entre 2003-2014, no tuvo lugar una significativa renegociación de los Convenios Colectivos de Trabajo (CCT) sectoriales acordados entre 1991-2002, etapa caracterizada por la flexibilización laboral. Metodológicamente, se analizaron los CCT sectoriales firmados entre 1975 y 2014. Esta muestra cubre el 95% de los asalariados formales del sector privado no agrícola. Los resultados de la investigación indican que actualmente el 64% de los CCT sectoriales negociados entre 1991 y 2002 se encuentran inactivos. Así, se demuestra que gran parte de los CCT sectoriales establecidos en la década de los '90 no muestran continuidad en su aplicación post 2003, evidencia que pone en cuestión otros estudios sobre la temática. |
| Keywords: | Negociación Colectiva; Convenios Colectivos; Argentina; |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:2865&r=his |
| By: | Carlson, Mark A. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Jaremski, Matthew |
| Abstract: | Maintaining sufficient liquidity in the financial system is vital for financial stability. However, since returns on liquid assets are typically low, individual financial institutions may seek to hold fewer such assets, especially if they believe they can rely on other institutions for liquidity support. We examine whether state banks in the early 1900s took advantage of relatively high cash balances maintained by national banks, due to reserve requirements, to hold less cash themselves. We find that state banks did hold less cash in places where both state legal requirements were lower and national banks were more prevalent. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability; Free-riding; Liquidity requirements; Reserve requirements |
| JEL: | D40 G38 N21 N41 |
| Date: | 2018–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-18&r=his |
| By: | Adriel Jost |
| Abstract: | The monetary policy preferences of a population are often explained by the country’s economic history. Based on Swiss data, this paper indicates that while different language groups may share the economic history, they demonstrate distinct monetary policy preferences. This suggests that distinct monetary policy preferences among the populations of different countries may be determined by not only their economic histories but also their distinct cultural backgrounds. |
| Keywords: | Inflation preferences, Culture, Monetary policy |
| JEL: | D01 E31 E52 E58 Z13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2018-02&r=his |