nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒04‒02
35 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Looking for work? Or looking for workers? Days and hours of work in London construction in the eighteenth century. By Stephenson, Judy Z.
  2. The effect of World War I on Iran situation By Fayyaz Zahed; Neda Moradi
  3. Paul van Zeeland and the first decade of the US Federal Reserve System : The analysis from a European central banker who was a student of Kemmerer By Ivo Maes; Rebeca Gomez Betancourt
  4. "Industrial Organization of the Banking Industry and the Role of Banks in Industrial and Corporate Financing: Banks and Firms in Prewar Japan " (in Japanese) By Tetsuji Okazaki
  5. Ice(berg) Transport Costs By Maarten Bosker; Eltjo Buringh
  6. The Origins of the Division of Labor in Pre-modern Times By Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer
  7. Sraffa and Manara: the mystery of the last article of Piero Sraffa By Yoann Verger
  8. "Risks and Returns of Trades: A case of Mitsubishi Corporation in the Prewar Period " (in Japanese) By Tetsuji Okazaki
  9. Rules Verus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy By John B. Taylor
  10. The Stupendous US Record Gets Suppressed By Amity Shlaes
  12. Essai de mise en dialogue de quatre publications récentes : -Thomas Piketty : Le capital au XXIème siècle - Philippe Askenazy : Tous rentiers - Richard Gordon : The rise and fall of American growth - Luc Boltanski, Arnaud Esquerre : Enrichissement By Denis Requier-Desjardins
  13. La herencia en Émile Durkheim By Quintín Quílez Pedro
  14. The Legacy of Colonial Medicine in Central Africa By Lowes, Sara Rachel; Montero, Eduardo
  15. Accumulation regimes By Agnès Labrousse; Sandrine Michel
  16. The Importance of E ective States: State Capacity and Economic Development By Noort, S.
  17. Law and finance in emerging economies: Germany and Britain 1800-1913 By Gerner-Beuerle, Carsten
  18. The focus of academic economics: before and after the crisis By Ernest Aigner; Florentin Glötzl; Matthias Aistleitner; Jakob Kapeller
  19. Producto Interno Bruto y los componentes del gasto en Uruguay, 1955-2016: propuestas de empalmes By Carolina Román
  20. Understanding the gender gap among turn-of-the-century Swedish compositors By Burnette, Joyce; Stanfors, Stanfors
  21. Natural Rate of Interest in Japan -- Measuring its size and identifying drivers based on a DSGE model -- By Yosuke Okazaki; Nao Sudo
  22. Oil Rents Shocks and Inequality in Iran By Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Tim Krieger
  23. Keynes on the Sequencing of Economic Policy: Recovery and Reform in 1933 By Sebastian Edwards
  24. INSTITUTIONS, CAPABILITIES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT By Antonio Cubel; María Teresa Sanchis; Juan A. Sanchis-Llopis
  25. Broadcasting as a Means of Signal Transmission in Germany By Khabyuk, Olexiy; Kops, Manfred
  26. Race, Representation and Local Governments in the US South: the effect of the Voting Rights Act By Bernini, Andrea; Facchini, Giovanni; Testa, Cecilia
  27. Corruption in Russia - Historic Legacy and Systemic Nature By Günther G. Schulze; Nikita Zakharov
  28. Accounting for Factorless Income By Loukas Karabarbounis; Brent Neiman
  29. Hamilton’s Paradox Revisited: Alternative lessons from US history By Schelkle, Waltraud
  30. Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia. By Enrique A. López-Enciso
  31. Informality in Indian Manufacturing By Rubina Verma; Rahul Giri
  32. Lost Einsteins: who becomes an inventor in America? By Alex Bell; Raj Chetty; Xavier Jaravel; Neviana Petkova; John Van Reenen
  33. Walking on two legs: Growth accounting with labor-saving and capital-saving technical change By Pierre Barral; Mehdi Senouci
  34. Panic and propagation in 1873: a computational network approach By Daniel Ladley; Peter L. Rousseau

  1. By: Stephenson, Judy Z.
    Abstract: This paper provides new information and data on how work and pay actually operated for skilled and semi-skilled men on large London construction projects in the early 1700s, and for the first time, offers detailed firm level evidence on the number of days per year worked by men. Construction workers' working days were bounded by structural factors of both supply and demand, men worked a far lower number of days than has been assumed until now. This has implications for our understanding of the 'industrious revolution', and industrialisation.
    Keywords: England 18C; industrial revolution; industrious revolution; labour input; living standards; wages, building craftsmen.
    JEL: J3 J4 J6 N33 N63
    Date: 2018–01–22
  2. By: Fayyaz Zahed (Central Tehran Branch.Islamic Azad University); Neda Moradi (islamic azad and research branch tehran)
    Abstract: AbstractThe World War I had a considerable influence on the history of many non-European countries specially Iran. Iran hoping that not to involve in this world war, neutralized in the war at the behest of November 1st in, but abjuring it by hostile countries, Iran was changed into an extended from for imperialist powers. Consequently was invaded by Britain, Russia, Ottoman and Germany from the south, north, and west. The World War I caused numerous problems for Iran. Increasing external pressures, the weekness of central government and subsequently, cabinets instability and economic crises added to the complexity of the situation. Despite Iran's efforts to keep himself from the battle of which had no proportion and no effect on it, the juggernaut strikes inflicted on political stability and consistency of the government and incurred formidable losses on the economy of this country. October revolution which at first seemed to improve the situation of Iran, caused Britain totalitarianism and changing negative balance. This created a long- term gap in Iran political arena and finally lead to 22th feb coup, and also overthrowing Qajar regime and replacing it with Reza Pahlavi. The event that changed the procedure of constitutional revolution and Iran Policies landscape.
    Keywords: Keywords: World War I, Iran, Qajar, violations of neutrality, political and economic crises.
    Date: 2017–10
  3. By: Ivo Maes (National Bank of Belgium and Robert Triffin Chair, Université catholique de Louvain and ICHEC Brussels Management School, Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, 1000 Brussels, Belgium); Rebeca Gomez Betancourt (University of Lyon 2. Triangle-ISH)
    Abstract: The establishment of a central bank occurred at very different moments in the process of economic integration in the United States and the European Union. In this paper, we go into the first years of the Federal Reserve System through the lens of Paul van Zeeland’s PhD dissertation. Paul van Zeeland (1893-1973) became the first Head of the Economics Service of the National Bank of Belgium in 1921, after his studies in Princeton with Edwin Walter Kemmerer. There are clear similarities in their analyses of the Federal Reserve System, for instance in their adherence to the gold standard and the real bills doctrine as well as in their emphasis on the elasticity of the money supply. Moreover, they shared a view - with hindsight a rather naïve view - that with the Fed in place, financial crises would be a distant memory. However, there were also important differences. So, van Zeeland, like several other economists as Warburg, accorded greater significance to the discount market (a key factor for the international role of the dollar) and to a stronger centralization of the Fed (which would be taken up in the 1935 Banking Act). Moreover, very specific for van Zeeland is the importance given to the Fed's independence from the State (an element related to his continental European background and Belgium's experience of monetary financing during the war).
    Keywords: van Zeeland, Kemmerer, Federal Reserve System, financial crisis, banking reform
    JEL: A11 B1 E58 F02 N23
    Date: 2018–03
  4. By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper selectively surveys the literature on the financial history of prewar Japan, focusing on the role of banks in industrial and corporate financing and the characteristics of the industrial organization in the banking sector, and adds some supplementary analyses. The banking sector in prewar Japan is characterized by the multilayered structure and the close relationship between banks and non-financial firms, called “organ bank†relationship. Whereas the organ bank relationship enabled related firms with lower profitability and smaller internal fund to borrow money more easily, it tended to hurt the profitability of banks and stability of the banking system. In the 1920s, when the banking system became unstable, a large wave of bank exits through mergers and closures occurred. Over this exit wave, the organ bank relationship waned through selection of unsound banks and change in the governance structure of banks. Meanwhile, this bank exit wave changed the fund allocation in local financial markets, which in turn affected the local industries.
    Date: 2016–10
  5. By: Maarten Bosker; Eltjo Buringh
    Abstract: Iceberg transport costs are one of the main ingredients of modern trade and economic geography models: transport costs are modelled by assuming that a fraction of the goods shipped “melts in transit”. In this paper, we investigate whether the iceberg assumption applies to the costs of transporting the only good that literally melts in transit: ice. Using detailed information on Boston’s nineteenth-century global ice trade, we show that ice(berg) transport costs in practice were a combination of a true ad-valorem iceberg cost: melt in transit, and freight, (off)loading and insurance costs. The physics of the melt process and the practice of insulating the ice in transit imply an immediate violation of the iceberg assumption: shipping ice is subject to economies scale.
    Keywords: iceberg transport costs, nineteenth-century Boston ice trade
    JEL: F10 N70 N51
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer
    Abstract: This research explores the historical roots of the division of labor in pre-modern societies. It advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that intra-ethnic diversity had a positive effect on the division of labor across ethnicities in the pre-modern era. Exploiting a variety of identification strategies and a novel ethnic level dataset combining geocoded ethnographic, linguistic and genetic data, it establishes that higher levels of intra-ethnic diversity were conducive to economic specialization in the pre-modern era. The findings are robust to a host of geographical, institutional, cultural and historical confounders, and suggest that variation in intra-ethnic diversity is the main predictor of the division of labor in pre-modern times.
    Keywords: Comparative Development; Division of Labor; Economic Specialization; Intra-Ethnic Diversity; Cultural Diversity; Population Diversity; Genetic Diversity; Linguistic Diversity
    JEL: D29 D74 E40 F10 F14 J24 N10 O10 O11 O12 O40 O43 O44 Z10 Z13
    Date: 2018–02–14
  7. By: Yoann Verger (REEDS - Centre international de Recherches en Economie écologique, Eco-innovation et ingénierie du Développement Soutenable - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines)
    Abstract: Piero Sraffa is a most famous economist, as well as a very parsimonious writer. So the discovery of an unpublished draft article in his unpublished papers is surely a big news for the history of economic thought, even more considering its subject: to provide an answer for the devastating article of C. F. Manara [1968]. Here I provide a first conjecture on why this draft has never been published - Sraffa was not able to overcome Manara's argument - and I show how Dupertuis and Sinha [2009] provide a solution that would have allowed Sraffa to publish what would have been his last article.
    Date: 2018–02–14
  8. By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper explores the modes of trading of a trading company and their implications on the risks and returns of trades, focusing on Mitsubishi Corporation in the 1920s. Mitsubishi employed two modes of trades, i.e. proprietary trading and consignment trading, and the former trades accounted for 43.8% of the total trades in 1928. From the original account book of Mitsubishi, I compiled a dataset containing the information of sales and margins at the individual transaction-level. It is revealed that there is substantial difference in the distributions of margin rates between proprietary trading and consignment trading. The distribution of margin rates of the proprietary trading has fat tails both on the left and right sides, and the average margin rate is significantly higher than that of consignment trades. As expected, proprietary trading yielded high risk and high return. The findings of this paper suggests further issues to be explored, including the choice of modes of trading by Mitsubishi and the mechanisms that Mitsubishi controlled the risk accompanying transactions by its own account.
    Date: 2016–11
  9. By: John B. Taylor
    Abstract: This paper reviews the state of the debate over rules versus discretion in monetary policy, focusing on the role of economic research in this debate. It shows that proposals for policy rules are largely based on empirical research using economic models. The models demonstrate the advantages of a systematic approach to monetary policy, though proposed rules have changed and generally improved over time. Rules derived from research help central bankers formulate monetary policy as they operate in domestic financial markets and the global monetary system. However, the line of demarcation between rules and discretion is difficult to establish in practice which makes contrasting the two approaches difficult. History shows that research on policy rules has had an impact on the practice of central banking. Economic research also shows that while central bank independence is crucial for good monetary policy making, it has not been enough to prevent swings away from rules-based policy, implying that policy-makers might consider enhanced reporting about how rules are used in monetary policy. The paper also shows that during the past year there has been an increased focus on policy rules in implementing monetary policy in the United States.
    Keywords: Â
    JEL: E52 E58 F33
    Date: 2018–02
  10. By: Amity Shlaes
    Abstract: In recent years, the consensus regarding the American past has slipped leftward, and then leftward again. No longer is American history a story of opportunity, or of military or domestic triumph. America’s has become, rather, a story of wrongs, racial and social. Today, any historical figure who failed at any time to support abolition, or, worse, took the Confederate side in the Civil War, must be expunged from history. Wrongs must be righted, and equality of result enforced.
    Keywords: USA, contemporary economic history, progressives versus proponents of free markets, economic growth, welfare state, taxes, redistribution policies, the role of markets, the role of government
    Date: 2018–03
    Abstract: For a long time in history, Papal State was one of the most powerful state in all over Europe with the Pope as a head of state. But, the situation had changed after it lost its territory to Italy, which, as a consequnce, developed the problem of the status of Vatican under the principles of international law. At the time it continued to act as if it was a state, and some states promoted the very idea. This complex situation somehow eased by the conclusion of 1929 Lateran Treaty with Italy, in which a small territory was given to it and recognized its sovereignty over it. But, the question of status, as it would appear, has remained stand-still. In this respect, some jurists in doctrine challenges the status of Vatican as a state and acknowledges it as a sui generis subject of international law, while some recognizes it as a state. Hence, in this brief assessment the question of the legal status of Vatican will be analyzed.
    Keywords: Vatican, Holy See, Lateran Treaty (1929), Subjects of International Law, Papal State
    JEL: K33 F50
    Date: 2017–10
  12. By: Denis Requier-Desjardins (IEP Toulouse - Sciences Po Toulouse - Institut d'études politiques de Toulouse, LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2 - Université Toulouse 2 - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - ENFA - École Nationale de Formation Agronomique - Toulouse-Auzeville)
    Abstract: Ces quatre ouvrages récents, qui ont eu un certain retentissement, partagent dans des proportions variables à la fois une interrogation sur la nature actuelle de l’économie de marché capitaliste et de la forme marchandise et une réflexion sur la dynamique de long terme de cette même économie capitaliste, ce qui justifie leur « mise en dialogue » dans cette note de lecture.
    Keywords: Démographie,Piketty,Innovation,Croissance,inégalités,Esquerre,Gordon,Boltanski,Askenazy
    Date: 2018–02
  13. By: Quintín Quílez Pedro
    Abstract: El tema de la herencia constituye un asunto menor dentro de la sociología desarrollada por Émile Durkheim (1858-1917). Sin embargo, su apuesta por la eliminación legal de la herencia familiar fue, para este autor, no solo la oportunidad de ofrecer una interpretación sociológica de su origen, función y evolución, sino sobre todo de situarse políticamente en los debates políticos del momento. Como resultado, Durkheim formuló una predicción sobre su futura desaparición. La herencia sería substituida por otras formas de transmisión de bienes más pertinentes para las sociedades modernas caracterizadas por una cada vez mayor división y especialización del trabajo. Si El capital en el siglo XXI (2013), el exitoso libro del economista Thomas Piketty, ha vuelto a poner sobre la mesa el papel jugado por el capital económico heredado en el actual incremento de la desigualdad social, vale la pena recordar lo que al respecto dijo uno de los padres fundadores de la sociología y de quien estamos conmemorando los cien años de su muerte.
    Keywords: Sociología clásica, Sociología económica, Herencia
    Date: 2018–03–01
  14. By: Lowes, Sara Rachel; Montero, Eduardo
    Abstract: Between 1921 and 1956, French colonial governments organized medical campaigns to treat and prevent sleeping sickness. Villagers were forcibly examined and injected with medications with severe, sometimes fatal, side effects. We digitized thirty years of archival records to document the locations of campaign visits at a granular geographic level for five central African countries. We find that greater historical exposure to the campaigns reduces trust in medicine - measured by willingness to consent to a free, non-invasive blood test. The resulting mistrust is specific to the medical sector. We examine relevance for present day health initiatives; we find that World Bank projects in the health sector are less successful in areas with greater exposure to the campaigns.
    Keywords: Colonialism; Culture; health; medicine; Trust
    JEL: I15 I18 N37 O55 Z13
    Date: 2018–03
  15. By: Agnès Labrousse (CRIISEA - Centre de Recherche sur les Institutions, l'Industrie et les Systèmes Economiques d'Amiens - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne); Sandrine Michel (ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This chapter discusses the way in which the social surplus is distributed and, crucially, used—that is, accumulation regimes. Historical observation shows that accumulation—the process of adding productive capital to the previously invested amount of capital—undergoes long periods of stability, followed by periods of instability and crisis. Thus, especially Régulation theory and the Social Structure of Accumulation approach set out to study the dynamics of production, consumption and the distribution of income through institutional frameworks specific in time and location and which underpin macroeconomic regularities. In this way, authors demonstrate that the evolutionary nature of the economy implies that economics should not assume a canonical accumulation regime but rather be concerned with a much broader variety of regimes.
    Date: 2017–08–04
  16. By: Noort, S.
    Abstract: Political scientists have long suspected that differences in the degree to which governments are able to effectively implement and enforce public policy (i.e. state capacity) are at the root of economic (under)development. Measurement error and endogeneity have, however, prevented researchers from obtaining a credible estimate of the effect of state capacity on economic performance. Using an improved measure of state capacity and exposure to 1700-1788 inter-state warfare as an instrument, I find that state capacity alone is able to explain 57% of all cross-country differences in GDP per capita and that its effect is larger than other prominent explanations for cross-country differences in economic development, such as: constraints on the executive, democracy, latitude, landlockedness, social capital, natural resources, legal origins, ethnic fractionalization, and others. Using mediation analysis I find that state capacity affects economic development through factors that enable markets to allocate resources more efficiently (law and order), and through better performance in sectors where market failures are prone to arise (education, infrastructure, and technology). I find that these results are robust to more than 100 controls and show empirically that the IV estimates are robust to relatively large violations of the exclusion restriction. I also find that state capacity explains a significant fraction of cross-country growth rates over the 1950 to 2010 period.
    Keywords: Institutions, Economic Development, State Capacity, Private Property Rights, Human Capital Accumulation, Public Goods, Law and Order, Technology.
    Date: 2018–03–14
  17. By: Gerner-Beuerle, Carsten
    Abstract: By most standards, Britain in the 19th century was the world's leading financial nation, with more developed capital markets than any other country. An influential view in the law and finance literature argues that, holding macroeconomic factors constant, the different financial development can be attributed to more stringent disclosure regulation in Britain. Presenting a granular analysis of regulatory reform in Britain and Germany, this article shows that the level of disclosure regulation was largely comparable in both countries during the relevant period and that reform initiatives were not an exogenous stimulus of financial development, but evolved incrementally in response to changing market conditions. On the other hand, the legal regime governing the formation of stock corporations developed in diametrically opposed directions in the two countries as a result of concerted efforts by policy makers to change market conditions. The article argues that these rules, which were relevant to organisational choice and the availability of different sources of financing, stand out as the most striking difference between Germany and the UK.
    Keywords: law and finance; financial development; disclosure regulation; private enforcement; liability for incorrect disclosures
    JEL: N0 F3 G3
    Date: 2017–03–03
  18. By: Ernest Aigner (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria); Florentin Glötzl (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria); Matthias Aistleitner (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Jakob Kapeller (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria)
    Abstract: Has the global financial crisis of 2007ff had a visible impact on the economics profession? To answer this question we employ a bibliometric approach and compare the content and orientation of economic literature before and after the crisis with reference to two different samples: A large-scale sample consisting of more than 440,000 articles published between 1956 and 2016 and a smaller sample of 400 top-cited papers before and after the crisis. Our results suggest that – unlike the Great Depression of the 1930s – the current financial crisis did not lead to any major theoretical or methodological changes in contemporary economics, although the topic of financial instability received increased attention after the crisis.
    Keywords: crisis, economics profession, economic journals, keyword analysis, paradigmatic development
    Date: 2018–02
  19. By: Carolina Román (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: In Uruguay, information of the System of National Accounts is available since 1955, but homogeneous time-series are only offered for a shorter period (since 1997). National accounts have been calculated using two approaches: the production and the demand approach. Official estimates are available for several base years: 1961; 1978; 1983; 1988 revision, 1997 and 2005, though each benchmark was constructed from different sources and methodologies. In our research, we accept the official series for 1997 onwards and used other techniques to link the different base series prior to 1997 and back to 1955. In this paper, we focus on the demand side and we pursue two objectives. On the first place, we propose homogeneous annual time-series of GDP, exports, imports, gross capital formation, household final consumption expenditure and consumption of general government between 1955 and 2016, at current and at constant prices. We employ two splicing techniques: retropolation and interpolation. On the second place, we discuss the differences of the spliced series, for each variable, in terms of levels, growth rates and expenditure structure of GDP. Finally, we suggest that interpolation may be a better procedure than retroplation to obtain homogeneous national accounts time-series for this historical period in Uruguay.
    Keywords: GDP, Demand side, National Accounts, Splicing techniques, Uruguay
    JEL: N01 C18
    Date: 2017–12
  20. By: Burnette, Joyce (Wabash College); Stanfors, Stanfors (Lund University)
    Abstract: Women have always earned less than men, with men’s greater physical strength explaining a large portion of the difference. This raises the question of why the gender gap did not disappear when the importance of physical strength waned with the emergence of the modern labor market. This paper explores the wage gap among Swedish compositors, an occupation featuring the main traits of modernity, circa 1900. We exploit matched employer-employee data with national coverage,and examine information on men and women holding the same jobs. On average, women’s hourly wage was about 70 percent of men’s. Individual characteristics explain much, but not all, of this gender gap. To explain the remainder of the gap, we examine training and differences across firms. Our findings suggest that women received less training than men, and accounting for differences across firms explains the gender gap. We also find differences across firms by size and location. Smaller firms outside the major cities treated men and women fairly, but large firms in big cities did not offer women the same opportunities as men, creating a gender wage gap. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that firms which set up internal labor markets treated men and women differently.
    Keywords: earnings; manufacturing industry; firm-level data
    JEL: J16 J31
    Date: 2018–03–23
  21. By: Yosuke Okazaki (Bank of Japan); Nao Sudo (Bank of Japan)
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the level and determinants of the natural rate of interest in Japan. To this end, we construct a DSGE model that is specifically designed to address potential drivers of the natural rate that are considered important in previous studies, and estimate the model using Japan's data from 1980 to 2017. Our findings are summarized in the following three points. First, the natural rate has shown a secular decline over time, from 400 basis points in the 1980s, to 30 basis points in the last five years. The decline has been mostly attributed to changes in neutral technology. Changes in investment-specific technology, working-age population, and demand factors have also contributed to the decline, but the quantitative impacts have been small. Second, a secular decline and the quantitative importance of neutral technology are also seen when considering the expected future natural rates over a long horizon, indicating that changes in the natural rate have been perceived as persistent rather than temporal changes over the course of history. Third, in the banking crisis starting in the 1990s, financial factors stood out as an important driver that depressed the natural rate. Their contribution holds second place, after changes in neutral technology, when comparing potential drivers by the size of their contribution to variations in the natural rate. Our results suggest the need to monitor the financial intermediation function, as well as the path of neutral technology when analyzing developments in the natural rate.
    Keywords: Natural Rate of Interest; Monetary Policy Implementation; DSGE Model
    JEL: E32 E43 E44 E52
    Date: 2018–03–14
  22. By: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Tim Krieger
    Abstract: We study the short and long run responses of income inequality to positive per capita oil and gas rent shocks in Iran. Using historical data from 1973 to 2012 and vector autoregression (VAR)-based impulse response functions, we find a positive and statistically significant response of income inequality to oil rent booms within 4 years of the shock. In addition, the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) results show that in the long run, a 10-percent increase in oil and gas rents per capita leads to an approximately 1.4-percent increase in income inequality. The results are robust to controlling for different channels potentially affecting the income distribution in Iran. Our analysis can help policymakers evaluate and accommodate the possible positive or negative effects on inequality in Iran resulting from the 2016 lifting of the embargo against the country.
    Keywords: oil rents, inequality, VAR, ARDL, sanctions, Iran
    JEL: Q33 Q38 D63
    Date: 2018
  23. By: Sebastian Edwards
    Abstract: On December 31 1933, The New York Times published an open letter from John Maynard Keynes to President Franklin D. Roosevelt. In it Keynes encouraged FDR to expand public works through government borrowing. He also criticized FDR’s exchange rate policy, and argued that there was a need for lower long-term interest rates. But perhaps the most interesting feature of this letter is that Keynes made comments on the sequencing and speed of economic policies. He argued that “recovery” policies should precede “reform” measures. In this paper I analyze this particular aspect of the open letter, and I argue that for Keynes exchange rate stability was a key component of what he considered to be the appropriate order of policy. I also provide a comparison between Keynes’s views on sequencing and those developed in the 1980s and 1990s.
    JEL: B21 B22 B26 E31 F31 N12 N22
    Date: 2018–03
  24. By: Antonio Cubel (Universidad de Valencia (Spain)); María Teresa Sanchis (Universidad de Valencia and Instituto Figuerola (Spain)); Juan A. Sanchis-Llopis (Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)
    Abstract: This paper studies the relevance of institutional disparities and social capabilities in economic performance for a set of 21 OECD countries during the second half of the XXth century (1953-2007). For this purpose, we have constructed a set of institutional variables to capture the post WWII institutional framework, characterized by the development of the Welfare State and by an increasing exposure of countries to international competence. Our results confirm that capital liberalization and trade openness together with social expenditure enhanced the economic development for the countries analysed. Conversely, other “social capabilities” such as the existence of job security institutions and the presence of social conflicts had a negative influence on economic development.
    Keywords: economic development, institutional framework, capabilities
    Date: 2016–07
  25. By: Khabyuk, Olexiy (Department of Economics of the Duesseldorf University of Applied Sciences); Kops, Manfred (Institute for Broadcasting Economics, University of Cologne)
    Abstract: The paper at hand provides a brief overview of the development of broadcasting as a means of signal transmission in Germany during its emergence (1920-1945), nationwide extension (1946-1980), expansion of satellite andcable broadcasting (1981-1995) and the still ongoing process of digitalisation (up from 1996). With regard to the general subject of the project the paper is embedded in, it also briefly dis-cusses the most obvious and relevant consequences of the alteringforms of signal transmission for broadcasting as a logistic and technological system to transmit information, and the consequences for broadcasting as an institution that provides information to the public – and thus has societal, political, cultural and economicimplications.
    Abstract: Die vorliegende Publikation gibt einen kurzen Überblick über die Entwicklung des Rundfunks als Mittel der Signalübertragung in Deutschland während seiner Entstehung (1920-1945), der landesweiten Verbreitung(1946-1980), des Ausbaus des Satelliten- und Kabelfernsehens (1981-1995) und des noch andauernden Digitalisierungsprozesses (seit 1996). Die Autoren diskutieren darin die unmittelbaren und relevanten Konsequenzen der sich verändernden Formen der Signaltransmissionfür den Rundfunk als logistisches und technologisches System der Informationsübertragung sowie die Konsequenzen für den Rundfunk als Institution, die Informationen für die Öffentlichkeit bereitstellt - und damit gesellschaftliche, politische, kulturelle undwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen hat.
    Keywords: Digitalisation, Broadcasting Signal, Dual Broadcasting System, Public Service Broadcasting, Digitalisierung, Rundfunksignal, duale Rundfunkordnung, öffentlich-rechtlicher Rundfunk
    JEL: L8
  26. By: Bernini, Andrea; Facchini, Giovanni; Testa, Cecilia
    Abstract: The Voting Rights Act of 1965 opened elective offices to blacks in the US South, but systematic evidence on its immediate effects remains scant. Using a novel data-set on black elected officials between 1964-1980, we assess the causal impact of the VRA on the racial make-up of local governments. Since the VRA mandated federal scrutiny (coverage) over a group of Southern counties, we deploy a differences-in-differences estimation strategy using non-covered counties as a comparison group. Our results show that coverage doubled the extent to which black enfranchisement led to gains in black office-holding, particularly among bodies controlling local public finances.
    Keywords: Black Representation; Local Elections; Public Good Provision; Voting Rights Act
    JEL: D72 J15 N92
    Date: 2018–03
  27. By: Günther G. Schulze; Nikita Zakharov
    Abstract: This paper argues that corruption in Russia is systemic in nature. Low wage levels of public officials provide strong incentives to engage in corruption. As corruption is illegal, corrupt officials can be exposed any time, which enforces loyalty towards the powers that be; thus corruption is a method of governance. We trace the systemic corruption back to the Mongolian empire and demonstrate its persistence to the current regime. We show the geographic distribution of contemporary corruption within Russia, survey the literature on the causes, consequences, and cures of corruption in Russia, and discuss entry points to fighting it.
    Keywords: corruption, governance, institutions, political economy, history, Russia
    JEL: D73 H11 H73 K42 N40 P37
    Date: 2018
  28. By: Loukas Karabarbounis; Brent Neiman
    Abstract: Comparing U.S. GDP to the sum of measured payments to labor and imputed rental payments to capital results in a large and volatile residual or ``factorless income.'' Interpreting factorless income as economic profits implies a tight negative relationship between common measures of the real interest rate and markups, leads to large fluctuations in inferred factor-augmenting technologies, and results in markup levels that have risen since the early 1980s but that remain lower today than in the 1960s and 1970s. Alternatively, unmeasured capital plausibly accounts for all factorless income in recent decades, but its value in the 1960s would have to be even larger than the sum of non-residential and residential capital. Attributing factorless income to deviations of the rental rate of capital from standard measures based on bond returns leads to an inference of more stable factor shares and technological growth, but requires an explanation for why these cost of capital deviations exhibit trends. Using a multi-sector model with multiple types of capital, we demonstrate that our assessment of the drivers of changes in output, factor shares, and inequality between representative workers and capitalists depends critically on the strategy chosen to allocate factorless income.
    JEL: E1 E22 E23 E25
    Date: 2018–03
  29. By: Schelkle, Waltraud
    Abstract: Armed with the knowledge of today, a scholar revisits the US historical experience with fiscal federalism and learns how it avoided three pitfalls now facing the euro area. The lingering crisis of the euro area has made leading observers call for the completion of the economic and monetary union with fiscal federalism. They point to the US federation as the example to emulate. Opponents can point to evidence from US history that strong fiscal capacities at the federal level lead to free-riding at the member state level, with “spectacular debt accumulation and disastrous failures of macroeconomic policy” (Rodden, 2006: 2) in its wake. This paper revisits the historical US evidence with the knowledge of today. It takes lessons from the euro area crisis to see whether they apply to the history of the US dollar area. The first lesson asks whether political-fiscal union should come before monetary union; a second lesson concerns the need for fiscal union; and the final lesson is about the question where fiscal discipline should be located in a monetary union. Lessons from the euro area crisis reveal trade-offs that neither monetary union can evade. This becomes apparent if one looks at the interfaces of a fiscal federation with financial and monetary integration.
    Date: 2017–09
  30. By: Enrique A. López-Enciso (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: Este trabajo analiza dos grandes tradiciones en la medición del ciclo económico: los indicadores cíclicos y el cálculo de variables agregadas no observadas (producto potencial, tasa de interés natural, tasa de desempleo natural y tasa de cambio de equilibrio) y de sus brechas asociadas. La primera tradición, también conocida como la visión empírica del ciclo, debe mucho al esfuerzo del NBER y tuvo un gran desarrollo sobre todo en las economías avanzadas. En Colombia, se han hecho muchos trabajos en esa dirección. Sin embargo, pocos de éstos sobreviven, con lo cual el país ha perdido un instrumento valioso en el análisis de la coyuntura económica. El presente documento es la primera parte del trabajo completo y narra la historia de la primera tradición. Classification JEL: E32.
    Keywords: ciclo económico, sistemas de indicadores, medición del ciclo.
    Date: 2017–03
  31. By: Rubina Verma (Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM)); Rahul Giri (International Monetary Fund)
    Abstract: This paper characterizes informality in output and employment in the Indian economy for the period 1978-2005, with a special emphasis on the manufacturing sector. We first present statistics on growth and employment for India as well as for three sectors - agriculture, industry and services- for the time period 1950-2005. We also present data on employment in informal and formal enterprises using National Sample Survey data and highlight how informality in both formal and informal enterprises has grown over the years. This is further confirmed by comparing India with 40 other developing countries, where we find that the share of informal employment in non-agricultural employment is the highest among all the countries, and Indian manufacturing is a sector where the degree of informality is strikingly high. We document informality in Indian manufacturing carefully by examining detailed data on value added, employment, capital-labor ratios and trade at the 3 digit level for the manufacturing industries during the 1978-2010 period and highlight those industries in which informality has been increasing and dominant. Importantly, the level of informality in Indian employment has remained persistently high despite the rapid growth in GDP and GDP per capita seen since 1991, which is when India initiated the process of liberalizing the domestic industrial policy as well as its trade policy.
    Date: 2017
  32. By: Alex Bell; Raj Chetty; Xavier Jaravel; Neviana Petkova; John Van Reenen
    Abstract: Who are America's most successful inventors - and what can we learn from their experiences in designing policies to stimulate innovation? To answer these questions, former CEP director John Van Reenen and his colleagues have analysed data on the lives of more than one million inventors.
    Keywords: inventor, America, innovation
    Date: 2018–03
  33. By: Pierre Barral; Mehdi Senouci (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec)
    Abstract: We present an alternative to growth accounting à la Solow, on the same set of variables, that provides a metric for labor-saving technical change ('λ') and capital-saving technical change ('µ'). These two components are identified through the variations of the factor shares, which we assume to reflect marginal productivities. We run our algorithm using BEA data from 1948 to 2015, and compare the predictive power of our time series of (λ_t,µ_t) with the one of the Solow residual. Through simple regressions, we find: (i) that λ and µ are as good predictors of the growth rate of GDP per capita as the Solow residual, and (ii) that λ and µ, together with capital accumulation, are strong predictors of the variation of the factor shares, while the Solow residual is not. We conclude that a bi-dimensional representation of productivity has a stronger empirical relevance than the usual linear representation; however the former carries some different theoretical properties than the latter – notably on the consequences of capital accumulation.
    Keywords: Productivity,factor-saving technical change,capital accumulation
    Date: 2018–02–15
  34. By: Daniel Ladley (University of Leicester); Peter L. Rousseau (Vanderbilt University)
    Abstract: We assess systematic risk in the U.S. banking system before and after the Panic of 1873 using a combination of linear programming and computational optimization to estimate the interbank network based upon total gross and net positions of national banks a week before the crisis. We impose various liquidity shocks resembling those of 1873, and find the network can capture the distribution of interbank deposits a year later. The network may be used to predict banks likely to panic (i.e., change reserve agent) in the crisis. The identified banks see their balance sheets weaken in the year after the crisis more than other banks. The results shed light on the nature and regional pattern of withdrawals that may have occurred in a classic 19th century U.S. financial crisis.
    Keywords: Panic of 1873, Reserve System, Crisis, Systemic Risk, Network.
    JEL: G2 N1
    Date: 2018–03–23
    Date: 2018

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