nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒03‒05
eighteen papers chosen by

  1. Money in Spain. New historical statistics. 1830-1998 By Pablo Martín-Aceña
  2. Persistence in Trends and Cycles of Gold and Silver Prices: Evidence from Historical Data By Juncal Cunado; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Rangan Gupta
  3. CLASSES, CAPITAL AND THE SOCIAL FORMS IN BETWEEN - On the political and intellectual organization of the contradiction By Leonardo Ferreira Guimarães
  4. Selection bias in historical housing data By Gray, Rowena
  5. The Effects of Ethnic Chinese Minority on Vietnam’s Regional Economic Development in the Post-Vietnam War Period By Masami Imai; Tuan Anh Viet Nguyen
  6. Cliometrics. By Claude Diebolt; Michael Haupert
  7. Learning, as a wonder weapon of endogenous growth? By Peter Mihalyi
  8. The Functional Method as the Staple of Comparative Studies of European Legal History in the Early 21st Century? By Dmitry Poldnikov
  9. Roman Roads to Prosperity: Persistence and Non-Persistence of Public Goods Provision By Dalgaard, Carl-Johan; Kaarsen, Nicolai; Olsson, Ola; Selaya, Pablo
  10. Shaking Up the Equilibrium: Natural Disasters, Economic Activity, and Immigration By Ager, Philipp; Hansen, Casper Worm; Lønstrup, Lars
  11. The anatomy of a trade collapse: The UK, 1929-33 By De Bromhead, Alan; Fernihough, Alan; Lampe, Markus; O'Rourke, Kevin H.
  12. ‘Getting to Denmark’: the Role of Elites for Development By Peter Sandholt Jensen; Markus Lampe; Paul Sharp; Christian Volmar Skovsgaard
  13. Still a long way to go: decomposing income inequality across Italy’s regions, 1871 – 2011 By Gabriele Cappelli; Emanuele Felice; Julio Martínez-Galarraga; Daniel Tirado
  14. Geopolitical Risks and Recessions in a Panel of Advanced Economies: Evidence from Over a Century of Data By Matthew W. Clance; Rangan Gupta; Mark E. Wohar
  15. How to become a leader in an emerging new global market: The determinants of French wine exports, 1848-1938 By María Isabel Ayuda; Hugo Ferrer-Pérez; Vicente Pinilla
  16. Age at Arrival and Assimilation during the Age of Mass Migration By Rohan Alexander; Zachary Ward
  17. Fertility and Population Policy By Ouedraogo, Abdoulaye; Tosun, Mehmet S.; Yang, Jingjing
  18. Violence et non-violence à Madagascar : réflexion sur les formes de régulation sociale. By Mireille Razafindrakoto; François Roubaud; Jean-Michel Wachsberger

  1. By: Pablo Martín-Aceña (Universidad de Alcalá)
    Abstract: The purpose of this Working Paper is to present a reconstruction of the main monetary aggregates for the period 1830, when the first modern banknotes were issue, to1998, the last year before the substitution of the peseta by the euro. It offers series for currency in circulation and its components, bank deposits and its components, high-powered money and the money supply. With regard to previous monetary historical statistics, this Working Paper improves the quality and the time-span of the series, covering a period of more than 150 years. The Working Paper offers also a short approach to the long-term evolution of the quantity of money in Spain and the changes in its composition. The sources and methodology employed is explain in detail.
    Keywords: monetary statistics, monetary history, currency in circulation, bank deposits, money supply
    JEL: E49 E51 N1 N9 Y1
    Date: 2018–02
  2. By: Juncal Cunado (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, Pamplona, Spain); Luis A. Gil-Alana (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, Pamplona, Spain); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: This study examines the persistence in gold and silver prices covering the historical periods of 1257 to 2016 and 1687 to 2016 respectively, by means of simultaneously estimating two differencing parameters for the long run trend and the cyclical behavior in a fractional integration framework. As opposed to many previous papers in the literature, once the cyclical differencing parameter is taken into account, mean reversion is detected in the long run trend of both gold and silver prices. As far as the cyclical behavior of gold and silver prices is concerned, we find that cycles have a higher periodicity for gold (around 7 years) than for silver (4-5 years)
    Keywords: Gold and silver prices, Persistence, Cyclical behavior, Fractional integration
    JEL: C22 Q02
    Date: 2018–02
  3. By: Leonardo Ferreira Guimarães
    Abstract: This working paper focusses on a rigorous and somewhat idiosyncratic exposition of the concepts of dialectics, determinations of reflection (or essentialities) and social forms, adopting a Marxist reading of Hegel’s Science of Logic. The objective of this focus is to address one of the elements highly common in debates between Marxists and post-structuralists e amongst Marxist themselves: the centrality of categories of the one (like Universality, necessity, identity and so on) or of the multiple (like particularity, contingency, difference etc). Hence, the focus of this work is on the centrality of reflexive or mutual determinations (essence, non-identical identity, contradictory unity and social forms). Initially, even though Marx and some Marxist authors had used the notion of social forms, none of them had this notion developed in itself. The specific developments of this notion: such as the value forms, commodity form, political and juridical social forms were explored by various authors and by Marx himself. But, in the literature review made for this research, it wasn’t found any conceptualization of the general notion. The concept of social form can be explored as a methodological resource to mediate those above-mentioned elements of the debates. For instance, to centralize the social forms is to centralize the negative and reflexive element when we discuss if it’s the capital and its tendency laws that make for the historical march or the class struggle and the political contingency. The focus is on the something that exists in-between, the objectivation process in itself, not in its extremes
    Keywords: Dialectics; Marxist method; Social Forms; Political Economy; Hegel-Marxrelation
    JEL: B40 B49 B51
    Date: 2017–12–22
  4. By: Gray, Rowena
    Abstract: A new sample containing rental price and characteristic data for over 15,000 New York City units was collected from historical newspapers for the period 1880 to 1910. These units were geolocated to the historical map of Manhattan Island to explore their geographic coverage, using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. This paper presents the new sample and discusses its representativeness of the New York City housing market during the sample period, with reference to the (limited) previous measures available in the literature and an analysis of the summary statistics of various subsamples of the data which can highlight selection biases. Finally, an analysis of the social status and ethnic composition of individuals located in the sample units in Census year 1880 is presented. Understanding the biases that might be present in this new sample will inform its usefulness in uncovering the workings of historical housing markets and in contributing to the scarce available information on historical housing costs.
    Keywords: real estate markets,historical house rental price data,selection bias,US economic history,New York City,historical GIS
    JEL: J15 R31 N91
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Masami Imai; Tuan Anh Viet Nguyen
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the Hoa, an ethnically Chinese, economically dominant minority, on regional economic development in Vietnam. To address the endogeneity of the geographical distribution of the Hoa, we use an important historical episode: the rapid deterioration in Sino-Vietnamese diplomatic relationship that led many ethnic Chinese to flee abroad, particularly to the refugee camps in the Guangxi province of China, in 1979. We find that the effects of proximity to the refugee camps on the share of ethnic Chinese in 1989 were more pronounced for provinces that had a larger presence of the ethnic Chinese population in 1979. We also find strong correlations between the 1989 share of ethnic Chinese (instrumented) and contemporary indicators of economic performance. The results suggest that the ethnic Chinese minority had positive economic impacts on Vietnam’s regional economies and that the post-Vietnam War exodus of ethnic Chinese was likely to have had long-term negative economic impacts.Length: 55 pages
  6. By: Claude Diebolt; Michael Haupert
    Abstract: Cliometrics has been defined and summarized in numerous scholarly articles. They all pretty much start with the obvious, that cliometrics is the application of economic theory and quantitative techniques to study history; and then move on to the origin of the name, the joining of Clio (the muse of history), with metrics ("to measure," or "the art of measurement"), allegedly coined by economist Stanley Reiter while collaborating with economic historians Lance Davis and Jonathan Hughes.
    Keywords: Cliometrics, Economic History, Methodology, Economics, History.
    JEL: A12 B41 C18 C80 E01 N01
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Peter Mihalyi (Department of Macroeconomics, Corvinus University of Budapest and Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: This extended book review of Creating a Learning Society by Joseph Stiglitz and Bruce Greenwald (2014) looks at the 700-page long scholarly work from a transition economy perspective. Using as a starting point Arrow’s renowned concept of “learning by doing”, the authors throw away the doctrines of free trade, liberalization of capital, as well as the liberalization of labour and currency markets (for short: the Washington consensus) by claiming that these policies imped economy-wide learning. In the opinion of the present author, Stiglitz and his co-author are using the term “learning” in such a broad sense that it becomes almost meaningless as an explanatory factor in their endogenous growth concept thought out primarily for less developed (infant) economies.
    Keywords: Infant industry, infant economy, learning, labour productivity, inertia, rivalry, Washington consensus
    JEL: E61 F12 I28
    Date: 2017–09
  8. By: Dmitry Poldnikov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The Europeanization of legal scholarship and legal education facilitates the emergence of comparative legal science as a promising new tool to discover similarities and differences between two or more jurisdictions and their past development. Yet, the specific methodology of such studies is still not clear. Some legal historians hold that comparative legal history does not or should not have its own methodology other than that of comparative law. Others warn against imposing a contemporary agenda and toolbox on legal history. The author of this article aims to clarify this debate by examining the prospect of applying one of the most popular methods of comparative law – the functional method – to the domain of legal history. On the basis of several examples from the European legal past he claims that examining the functions (the social purpose) of legal norms can help legal historians in three ways: first, to determine the objects of comparison and the sources of analysis, despite the variety of verbal shortcuts (the initial stage of research); second, to analyse legal norms from the perspective of solving social problems in the past – to study the 'law in action'; and third, to arrange the results of the research according to meaningful criteria at the final stage
    Keywords: comparative legal history, methodology, functional method, European legal tradition, tertium comparationis, praesumptio similitudinis
    JEL: K10
    Date: 2018
  9. By: Dalgaard, Carl-Johan (University of Copenhagen, CAGE (Warwick) and CEPR (London)); Kaarsen, Nicolai (Danish Economic Council); Olsson, Ola (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Selaya, Pablo (University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: How persistent is public goods provision in a comparative perspective? We explore the link between infrastructure investments made during antiquity and the presence of infrastructure today, as well as the link between early infrastructure and economic activity both in the past and in the present, across the entire area under dominion of the Roman Empire at the zenith of its geographical extension (117 CE). We find a remarkable pattern of persistence showing that greater Roman road density goes along with (a) greater modern road density, (b) greater settlement for-mation in 500 CE, and (c) greater economic activity in 2010. Interestingly, however, the degree of persistence in road density and the link between early road density and contemporary economic development is weakened to the point of insignificance in areas where the use of wheeled vehicles was abandoned from the first millennium CE until the late modern period. Taken at face value, our results suggest that infrastructure may be one important channel through which persistence in comparative development comes about.
    Keywords: Roman roads; Roman Empire; public goods; infrastructure; persistence
    JEL: H41 O40
    Date: 2018–02
  10. By: Ager, Philipp (Department of Business and Economics); Hansen, Casper Worm (University of Copenhagen); Lønstrup, Lars (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run effects on the spatial distribution of economic activity caused by historical shocks. Using variation in the potential damage intensity of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake across cities in the American West, we show that more severely affected cities experienced lower population growth relative to less affected cities after the earthquake. This negative effect persisted until the late 20th century. The earthquake diverted migrants to less affected areas in the region, which, together with reinforcing dynamic agglomeration effects from scale economies, left a long-lasting mark on the location of economic activity in the American West.
    Keywords: Economic geography; Location of economic activity; Migration; Natural disasters
    JEL: O15 O40 R11 R12
    Date: 2018–02–12
  11. By: De Bromhead, Alan; Fernihough, Alan; Lampe, Markus; O'Rourke, Kevin H.
    Abstract: A recent literature explores the nature and causes of the collapse in international trade during 2008 and 2009. The decline was particularly great for automobiles and industrial supplies; it occurred largely along the intensive margin; quantities fell by more than prices; and prices fell less for differentiated products. Do these stylised facts apply to trade collapses more generally? This paper uses detailed, commodityspecific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933, to see to what extent the trade collapses of the Great Depression and Great Recession resembled each other. It also compares the free trading trade collapse of 1929-31 with the protectionist collapse of 1931-3, to see to what extent protection, and gradual recovery from the Great Depression, mattered for UK trade patterns.
    Keywords: Great Depression,Great Recession,trade,protectionism
    JEL: F14 N70 N74
    Date: 2018
  12. By: Peter Sandholt Jensen (University of Southern Denmark); Markus Lampe (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR); Christian Volmar Skovsgaard (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: We explore the role of elites for development and in particular for the spread of cooperative creameries in Denmark in the 1880s, which was a major factor behind that country’s rapid economic catch-up. We demonstrate empirically that the location of early proto-modern dairies, so-called hollænderier, introduced onto traditional landed estates as part of the Holstein System of agriculture by landowning elites from the Duchies of Schleswig and Holstein in the eighteenth century, can explain the location of cooperative creameries in 1890, more than a century later, after controlling for other relevant determinants. We interpret this as evidence that areas close to estates which adopted the Holstein System witnessed a gradual spread of modern ideas from the estates to the peasantry. Moreover, we identify a causal relationship by utilizing the nature of the spread of the Holstein System around Denmark, and the distance to the first estate to introduce it, Sofiendal. These results are supported by evidence from a wealth of contemporary sources and are robust to a variety of alternative specifications.
    Keywords: Institutions, technology, cooperatives, dairying
    JEL: N53 O13 Q13
    Date: 2018–02
  13. By: Gabriele Cappelli (Departament d'Economia i d'Història Econòmica, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Emanuele Felice (Department of Philosophical, Pedagogical and Economic-Quantitative Sciences, Università “G. D’Annunzio” di Chieti-Pescara); Julio Martínez-Galarraga (Departament d’Anàlisi Econòmica, Universitat de València); Daniel Tirado (Departament d’Anàlisi Econòmica, Universitat de València)
    Abstract: This article is the first study to explore to what extent labour productivity, structural change, participation rates and the age structure of the population contributed to the pattern of Italy’s regional economic inequality over the long run (1871-2011). We provide brand new regional estimates of participation rates and age structures, as well as the most updated figures on per capita GDP, per worker GDP and the employment rate (at ten-year intervals spanning from 1871 to 2011). First, regional inequality in per capita GDP (Y/N) is split into labour productivity (Y/L) and labour-market features (L/N). Then, the Caselli-Tenreyro decomposition is used to explore whether labour-productivity convergence (or divergence) at the NUTS-1 level was determined within or between sectors, and by labour reallocation. While labour productivity was central to the pattern of Italy’s regional development until the 1970s, since then the key factor of North-South divergence has been the participation rate. The results confirm the central role of national and local policies, influencing per capita GDP via productivity, employment, and participation rates.
    Keywords: Regional disparities, Italy, convergence, divergence, Caselli-Tenreyro, economic history, productivity.
    JEL: R1 O11 O25 N9
    Date: 2018–01
  14. By: Matthew W. Clance (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, USA and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, UK)
    Abstract: This paper uses a panel of seventeen advanced countries over the annual period of 1899-2013, to analyze for the first time, the role played by geopolitical risks in predicting recessions. After controlling for other standard predictors, based on a logit model, we find that, while aggregate geopolitical risks does not have any predictive ability, geopolitical acts enhances the probability of future recessions, with geopolitical threats reducing the same.
    Keywords: Geopolitical Risks, Recessions, Advanced Economies, Panel Data, Logit Model
    JEL: C33 E32
    Date: 2018–02
  15. By: María Isabel Ayuda (Universidad de Zaragoza, Department of Economic Analysis, Faculty of Economics and Business Studies); Hugo Ferrer-Pérez (CREDA-UPC-IRTA, Edifici ESAB-PMT); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza and Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón -IA2- (Universidad de Zaragoza-CITA), Department of Applied Economics)
    Abstract: When studying the emergence of new global markets it is essential to consider how countries and companies compete to obtain advantageous positions. Our objective is to study how France obtained an initial leadership position in the new global wine market which it subsequently consolidated. We will also analyse the main determinants of its exporting success. In order to do this we have quantified its exports and examined its evolution and its principal export markets. We have also used a gravity model for both ordinary wine and high quality wine in order to establish the key variables that explain this evolution. The article highlights the great efforts made by the exporters to improve the quality of their products and increase their sales using modern marketing techniques. Our econometric results also show some significant differences between the determinants of exports for the two types of wine. However, the exports of both products suffered the strong impact of a series of major events, such as The First World War, the Russian Revolution, the Prohibition in the United States and the Great Depression. The case of wine shows that the collapse of the first globalisation was not the same for all types of product.
    Keywords: Globalisation waves, Wine trade, French wine exports
    JEL: F14 N53 N54 N70 Q17
    Date: 2018–02
  16. By: Rohan Alexander; Zachary Ward
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of age at arrival for immigrant outcomes with a new dataset of arrivals linked to the 1940 United States Census. Using within-family variation, we find that arriving at an older age, or having more childhood exposure to the European environment, led to a more negative wage gap relative to the native born. Infant arrivals had a positive wage gap relative to natives, in contrast to a negative gap for teenage arrivals. Therefore, a key determinant of immigrant outcomes during the Age of Mass Migration was the country of residence during critical periods of childhood development.
    Keywords: Age at arrival, Assimilation, Childhood environment.
    JEL: N31 F22 J61
    Date: 2018–03
  17. By: Ouedraogo, Abdoulaye; Tosun, Mehmet S.; Yang, Jingjing
    Abstract: There have been significant changes in both the fertility rates and fertility perception since 1970s. In this paper, we examine the relationship between government policies towards fertility and the fertility trends. Total fertility rate, defined as the number of children per woman, is used as the main fertility trend variable. We use panel data from the United Nations World Population Policies database, and the World Bank World Development Indicators for the period 1976 through 2013. We find significant negative association between a country’s fertility rate and its anti-fertility policy. On the other hand, there is no significant and robust relationship between the fertility rate and a country’s pro-fertility or family-planning policies. In addition we find evidence of spatial autocorrelation in the total fertility rate, and spatial spillovers from government’s policy on fertility.
    Keywords: fertility rate,population,government policies
    JEL: H10 H59 J11 J13 J18
    Date: 2018
  18. By: Mireille Razafindrakoto (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine); François Roubaud (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine); Jean-Michel Wachsberger (CeRIES, Université de Lille, IRD, UMR DIAL)
    Abstract: (english) Countries that have experienced a steady decline in their economy over the long term are most often those who have suffered repeated cycles of poor governance and violence. However, since independence, Madagascar has never been permanently paralyzed by internal armed conflicts and even less external and the island is (or has been) often presented as a "peaceful" country populated by "peaceful" citizens. This article questions the reality of this non-violence in Malagasy society by mobilizing the available statistical data and going back in time to lay the foundations of a history of political violence. He then proposes elements of interpretation both on the weak use of physical violence, both by the population and by the elites, and on the increase of the feeling of insecurity, far superior to the increase of interpersonal violence. While the limited degree of physical violence may be a mark of a form of social cohesion, it also stems from the structuring of Malagasy society. The weak organization, both on the part of fragmented elites and a geographically and socially atomized population, is not conducive to the emergence of political violence. But it is above all the preponderance of a systemic symbolic violence that allows the maintenance of the established order and hampers the emergence of mobilizations likely to call into question the balance of the society. Organizational weakness, social norms and symbolic violence combine for apparent social peace. This reflects less institutional solidity than the symbolic domination of the elite class. _________________________________ (français) Les pays ayant connu une régression continue de leur économie sur longue période sont toujours ceux qui ont souffert de cycles répétés alliant mauvaise gouvernance et violence. Or, depuis l’indépendance, Madagascar n’a jamais été durablement paralysée par des conflits armés internes et encore moins externes et l’Ile est (ou a été) souvent présentée comme un pays « paisible », peuplé de citoyens « pacifiques ». Cet article interroge la réalité de cette non-violence de la société malgache en mobilisant les données statistiques disponibles et en remontant dans le temps pour poser les jalons d’une histoire de la violence politique. Il propose alors des éléments d’interprétation à la fois sur la faible utilisation de la violence physique, tant par la population que par les élites, et sur l’augmentation du sentiment d’insécurité, bien supérieure à celle de la violence interpersonnelle. Si le degré limité de violence physique peut être la marque d’une forme de cohésion sociale, il découle aussi de la structuration de la société malgache. La faible organisation, tant du côté d’élites fragmentées que d’une population atomisée géographiquement et socialement, n’est pas propice à l’émergence de violences politiques. Mais c’est surtout la prégnance d’une violence symbolique systémique qui permet le maintien de l’ordre établi et freine l’émergence de mobilisations susceptibles de remettre en cause l’équilibre de la société. Faiblesse organisationnelle, normes sociales et violence symbolique se conjuguent pour une apparente paix sociale. Celle-ci reflète moins une solidité institutionnelle que la domination symbolique de la classe élitaire.
    Keywords: Violence, Madagascar, Sentiment d’insécurité, Crise politique, Cohésion sociale, Violence symbolique, Elites, Insecurity feeling, Political Crisis, Social Cohesion, Symbolic Violence, Elite
    JEL: N17 N47 P48 Z1
    Date: 2017–12

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