nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒02‒12
27 papers chosen by

  1. Foreign Capital in 19th Century Spain's Investment Boom By Prados de la Escosura, Leandro
  2. On the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty: A Historical Perspective By Yasuhiro Sakai
  3. Paradigmele istoriei. Datoria publică a României în ultimii 100 de ani By Georgescu, George
  5. International Migration in the Atlantic Economy 1850 - 1940 By Timothy J Hatton; Zachary Ward
  6. The global rise of patent expertise in the late nineteenth century By Sebastian David Pretel
  7. Stigler on Ricardo By Kurz, Heinz D.
  8. Effects of Copyrights on Science - Evidence from the US Book Republication Program By Barbara Biasi; Petra Moser
  9. Frontier knowledge and scientific production: evidence from the collapse of international science By Iaria, Alessandro; Schwarz, Carlo; Waldinger, Fabian
  10. Standards, Tariffs and Trade: The Rise and Fall of the Raisin Trade Between Greece and France in the Late 19th Century and the Definition of Wine By Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen
  11. Population control policies and fertility convergence By de Silva, Tiloka; Tenreyro, Silvana
  12. Peugeot et le foyer automobile lyonnais By Dominique Lejeune
  13. Nation-Building, Nationalism, and Wars By Alberto Alesina; Bryony Reich; Alessandro Riboni
  14. Colonial legacies: shaping African cities By Baruah, Neeraj G.; Henderson, J. Vernon; Peng, Cong
  15. The Institutionalist Theory of the Business Enterprise: Past, Present, and Future By Jo, Tae-Hee
  16. Autocratic Rule and Social Capital: Evidence from Imperial China By Xue, Melanie Meng; Koyama, Mark
  17. Monetary System of Georgia in XI-XII centuries and its Effect on Economic Activity By Abuselidze, George
  18. A Look to The Ottoman Cash Waqfs As Altruistic Finance Model By Bulut, Mehmet; Korkut, Cem
  19. Interviews and the Historiographical Issues of Oral Sources By Dorian Jullien
  20. The Impact of a Negative Labor Demand Shock On Fertility - Evidence From the Fall of the Berlin Wall By Liepmann, Hannah
  21. Qu'est-ce que les Trente Glorieuses ? By Dominique Lejeune
  23. International commodity prices and civil war outbreak: new evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond By Antonio Ciccone
  24. Practices of Using Interviews in History of Contemporary Economics: A Brief Survey By Dorian Jullien
  25. Structural Change and the Fertility Transition in the American South By Philipp Ager; Markus Brueckner; Benedikt Herz
  26. Amartya Sen’s Peasant Economies: A Review with Examples By Mohajan, Haradhan
  27. Nuclear Power in the Twenty-First Century: An Assessment (Part I) By Christian von Hirschhausen

  1. By: Prados de la Escosura, Leandro
    Abstract: Spain experienced an investment boom over 1850-1874. Historians attributed a significant role to foreign capital inflow. Sudrià (2018) challenged the consensus on the basis of Moro, Nuño, and Tedde (2015) capital balance account estimates that imply a much lower capital inflow. Dishoarding of bullion and previous savings would have catered for an increasing investment demand providing the means to meet the current account deficit without causing deflation. It is argued here that the empirical basis for Sudrià's claim is flawed. Moro et al. (2015) direct appraisal of the capital balance account resulted in an underestimate of the net capital inflow and a substantial upward bias of the change in reserves. The current account deficit resulted from an inflow of capital that allowed investment to raise facilitating imports of capital goods and raw materials. Foreign capital made a significant contribution to the investment boom of 19th century and boosted Spanish performance.
    Keywords: Spain; Growth; Saving; Investment; Capital Inflow; Balance of Payments
    JEL: N13 F32 F21
    Date: 2018–02–01
  2. By: Yasuhiro Sakai (Faculty of Economics, Shiga University)
    Abstract: The economics of risk and uncertainty has a long history over 300 years. This paper aims to systematically summarize and critically reevaluate it, with special reference to John M. Keynes and Frank H. Knight, the two giants in modern times. In our opinion, there are the six stages of development, with each stage vividly reflecting its historical background. The first stage, named the Initial Age, corresponds to a long period before 1700, the one in which statistics was firmly established by B. Pascal as a branch of mathematics but economic theory per se was not well developed. The second stage, called the "B-A" Age, covers the period from 1700 to 1880, is characterized by the two superstars, Daniel Bernoulli and Adam Smith. The third stage from 1880 to 1940 may be named the "K-K" Age because it was dominated by J.M. Keynes and F.H. Knight. The fourth stage, called the "N-M" age, eyewitnesses the birth of game theory, with von Neumann and Morgenstern being its foundering fathers. The fifth stage from 1970 to 2000, named the "A-S" Age, is characterized by several distinguished scholars with their initials "A" or "S". Finally, in 2000 and onward, while many doubts have been raised about existing doctrines, new approaches have not emerged yet, thus being named the Uncertain Age. The relationship between Keynes and Knight is both complex and rather strange. It has a history of separating, approaching, separating again and approaching again. As the saying goes, a new wine should be poured into a new bottle. We would urgently need a Keynes and/or a Knight toward a new horizon of the economics of risk and uncertainty.
    Keywords: Economics of risk and uncertainty, Bernoulli, Keynes, Knight
    Date: 2018–01
  3. By: Georgescu, George
    Abstract: The study focuses on the analysis of Romania’s public debt over the last 100 years, on three distinct historical periods (interwar, under communist regime, and the transition to the market economy), characterized, despite essential system differencies, by the same paradigm of a sinusoidal trajectory of the economic development, fundamentally affected by the overindebtedness costs and/or, paradoxically, by those of debt liquidation. The paper highlights the main causes of the public debt accumulation, the destinations of loans, trying to assess the sustainability parameters thoughout the last century. It was found that, in terms of debt sustainability, Romania had, in most of the time, an excessive indebtedness degree, accentuated by heavy financial and political consequences of the two world wars before 1990 and, after this, by the transition costs and the global crisis effects, which impacted the macroeconomic situation of the country.
    Keywords: B22, E44, E62, F34, H63, N44
    JEL: B22 E44 E62 F34 H63 N44
    Date: 2017–10
  4. By: Dominique Lejeune (CPGE, Louis le Grand)
    Abstract: Schématiquement, l'histoire des constructeurs automobiles voit, d'après Jean-Louis Loubet, se succéder le temps des pionniers (jusqu'en 1914), le temps des ingénieurs (± années 20), le temps des crises (1929-1945), le temps de la production de masse (1945-1955), la notion ayant été inventée par Henry Ford et imaginée pour la France par André Citroën dans les années 20, le temps des vingt glorieuses (1955-1974), le temps des illusions (1974-v. 1982) et le temps du renouveau (v. 1982-) ? La voiture est pour beaucoup d'hommes un objet d'identification narcissique et virile. Mais en ce début du XXIe siècle, certains conducteurs se « féminisent » et adoptent un comportement beaucoup plus désinvesti : pour eux, la voiture n'est plus un objet d'identification, elle devient purement fonctionnelle. La conductrice montre, en général, un attachement à son véhicule beaucoup moins fort que celui de l'homme. Elle a moins besoin de prouver sa puissance. Elle place sa fierté ailleurs ! La révolution du début du XXIe siècle : voitures connectées, moteurs électriques, voitures autonomes, véhicules loués, etc. Les voitures de chef d'État ? Les Renault 40 CV de la présidence de la Troisième République française entre 1920 et 1928, les nombreuses Mercedes 600 Landaulet, la Lincoln Continental, la Cadillac Fleetwood, la Delahaye carrossée, les Chrysler avec porte-fusils de la Guerre froide, bien sûr à l'Est les ZIL soviétiques. Mais au début du XXIe siècle, les longues limousines découvrables qui marquaient le prestige de la fonction de chef d'État n'ont plus la cote : l'heure est à la sécurité. révolution automobile, Albin Michel, coll. « L'aventure humaine », 1977, 385 p. (concerne le monde entier) : les grandes phases (trois grandes parties) : genèse d'une révolution, diffusion de la révolution, la révolution au pouvoir genèse d'une révolution : les premiers constructeurs, défaite des voitures à vapeur et des voitures électriques, expansion du marché et innovations dans la production à la Belle Époque
    Keywords: Histoire industrielle,Automobile européenne,Société française
    Date: 2016–10–11
  5. By: Timothy J Hatton; Zachary Ward
    Abstract: This chapter focuses on the economic analysis of what has been called the age of mass migration, 1850 to 1913, and its aftermath up to 1940. This has captured the interest of generations of economic historians and is still a highly active area of research. Here we concentrate on migration from Europe to the New World as this is where the bulk of the literature lies. We provide an overview of this literature focusing on key topics: the determinants of migration, the development of immigration policy, immigrant selection and assimilation, and the economic effects of mass migration as well as its legacy through to the present day. We explain how what were once orthodoxies have been revisited and revised, and how changes in our understanding have been influenced by advances in methodology, which in turn have been made possible by the availability of new and more comprehensive data. Despite these advances some issues remain contested or unresolved and, true to cliometric tradition, we conclude by calling for more research.
    Keywords: Mass migration; the Atlantic economy; immigrants and emigrants.
    JEL: N31 N32 J61 F22
    Date: 2018–02
  6. By: Sebastian David Pretel (Centro de Estudios Históricos, El Colegio de México)
    Abstract: This paper examines the rise of various forms of patent expertise over the course of the second industrialisation. The essential insight here is that patent agents and lawyers, as well as consultant engineers, became, in the late 19th century, critical actors in the production and transmission of patent rights and patented technologies within and among societies. This paper considers three main themes. First, the global institutionalisation of patent agents during the late nineteenth century and their growing centrality in several national systems. Second, the transnational patenting networks created during the 1880s, particularly the activities of associations of patent agents and their impact on the making of an international patent system. Third, the controversial role of patent experts as agents of corporate globalism. The most important point remains that agents’ powers, and their many services to multinational corporations, had enduring consequences on the structure of knowledge property worldwide.
    Keywords: Patents, expertise, globalisation, technology, corporations, networks
    JEL: N70 O3 F55 B1
    Date: 2018–01–26
  7. By: Kurz, Heinz D. (University of Graz)
    Abstract: The paper scrutinises George Stigler’s interpretation of Ricardo's theory. Like many marginalists, he assesses Ricardo’s contribution in terms of marginalist theory. This confirms Piero Sraffa’s observation that by the end of the nineteenth century the analytical structure, content and genuine significance of the classical theory had been “submerged and forgotten”. However, Stigler's textual acuteness makes him see important elements of Ricardo’s analysis that resist the marginalist interpretation. His irritation can only have been increased by Sraffa’s exposition of Ricardo’s sur-plus-based theory of profits in volume I of the Ricardo edition. This contradicted mar-ginal productivity theory of profits. Stigler praises Sraffa’s edition beyond all measure, refrains however from discussing his interpretation. Things do not change after Sraffa in 1960 publishes a logically consistent formulation of the classical theory of value and distribution. Sraffa's interpretation challenged Stigler's ideological position, which, however, he did not feel the need, or possibility, to defend.
    Keywords: David Ricardo; Ideology; Piero Sraffa; George Stigler; Value and distribution
    JEL: B12 D24 D46
    Date: 2018–01
  8. By: Barbara Biasi; Petra Moser
    Abstract: Copyrights for books, news, and other types of media are a critical mechanism to encourage creativity and innovation. Yet economic analyses continue to be rare, partly due to a lack of experimental variation in modern copyright laws. This paper exploits a change in copyright laws as a result of World War II to examine the effects of copyrights on science. In 1943, the US Book Republication Program (BRP) granted US publishers temporary licenses to republish the exact content of German-owned science books. Using new data on citations, we find that this program triggered a large increase in citations to German-owned science books. This increase was driven by a significant reduction in access costs: Each 10 percent decline in the price of BRP book was associated with a 43 percent increase in citations. To investigate the mechanism by which lower book prices influence science, we collect data on library holdings across the United States. We find that lower prices helped to distribute BRP books across US libraries, including less affluent institutions. Analyses of the locations of citing authors further indicate that citations increased most for locations that gained access to BRP books. Results are confirmed by two alternative measures of scientific output: new PhDs and US patents that use knowledge in BRP books.
    JEL: L82 N34 N42 O15 O34 O38 O43
    Date: 2018–01
  9. By: Iaria, Alessandro; Schwarz, Carlo; Waldinger, Fabian
    Abstract: We show that WWI and the subsequent boycott against Central scientists severely interrupted international scientific cooperation. After 1914, citations to recent research from abroad decreased and paper titles became less similar (evaluated by Latent Semantic Analysis), suggesting a reduction in international knowledge flows. Reduced international scientific cooperation led to a decline in the production of basic science and its application in new technology. Specifically, we compare productivity changes for scientists who relied on frontier research from abroad, to changes for scientists who relied on frontier research from home. After 1914, scientists who relied on frontier research from abroad published fewer papers in top scientific journals, produced less Nobel Prize-nominated research, introduced fewer novel scientific words, and introduced fewer novel words that appeared in the text of subsequent patent grants. The productivity of scientists who relied on top 1% research declined twice as much as the productivity of scientists who relied on top 3% research. Furthermore, highly prolific scientists experienced the starkest absolute productivity declines. This suggests that access to the very best research is key for scientific and technological progress
    Keywords: frontier knowledge; scientific production; international knowledge flows; WW1
    JEL: I23 J44 N3 N30 N4 N40 O3 O31 O5
    Date: 2017–10–01
  10. By: Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen
    Abstract: There is much debate on the impact of product and process standards on trade. The conceptual arguments are complex and empirical evidence is mixed. We analyze the impact of standards and tariffs on the dramatic rise and fall of the raisin trade between France and Greece in the course of 25 years at the end of the 19th century. The case illustrates how product standards can be used to address consumer concerns and to protect producer interests. Economic conditions and French policies first stimulated Greek raisin imports. Later, changing conditions and political pressures led to the introduction of tariffs and wine standards which caused major declines in Greek exports and ultimately the bankruptcy of the Greek economy. Interestingly, this trade episode of more than a century ago still has a regulatory legacy today as it is the origin of the EU’s definition of wine.
    Date: 2017
  11. By: de Silva, Tiloka; Tenreyro, Silvana
    Abstract: The rapid population growth in developing countries in the middle of the 20th century led to fears of a population explosion and motivated the inception of what effectively became a global population-control program. The initiative, propelled in its beginnings by intellectual elites in the United States, Sweden, and some developing countries, mobilized resources to enact policies aimed at reducing fertility by widening contraception provision and changing family-size norms. In the following five decades, fertility rates fell dramatically, with a majority of countries converging to a fertility rate just above two children per woman, despite large cross-country differences in economic variables such as GDP per capita, education levels, urbanization, and female labour force participation. The fast decline in fertility rates in developing economies stands in sharp contrast with the gradual decline experienced earlier by more mature economies. In this paper, we argue that population-control policies are likely to have played a central role in the global decline in fertility rates in recent decades and can explain some patterns of that fertility decline that are not well accounted for by other socioeconomic factors
    JEL: J11 J13 J18 O15 Z13
    Date: 2017–09–01
  12. By: Dominique Lejeune (CPGE, Louis le Grand)
    Abstract: La région parisienne automobile est bien connue (Billancourt, le Quai de Javel, etc.), mais Lyon et sa région ont traversé une Grande Aventure automobile lyonnaise (Pierre-Lucien Pouzet 1), Berliet n’étant pas le seul constructeur lyonnais. Il faut citer également Luc Court, Rochet-Schneider, Vermorel, et tant d’autres... À la Belle Époque, la région lyonnaise s’est découvert une nouvelle richesse industrielle et elle devient progressivement l’un des centres européens de l’automobile. Une dynastie dont l’histoire se déroule presque entièrement non loin de Besançon, au pays de Montbéliard ? Peugeot bien sûr ! L’activité métallurgique essaime tôt à Valentigney, Pont-de-Roide, etc. Elle s’adapte à la mode, ce que montre bien la production de cerceaux d’acier pour crinoline. La maison Peugeot diversifie sa production dans le dernier tiers du XIXe siècle : moulins à café, tondeuses pour chevaux ou militaires, fourches, pince-nez, montures de parapluies, ressorts pour phonographe, mais en conservant les productions traditionnelles ayant toujours un débouché, comme les buses de corset. C’est Armand Peugeot (1849-1915) qui lance, en 1885, la maison dans l’aventure du vélo. À la Belle Époque le lion est adopté comme symbole de la marque, c’est le lion de Franche-Comté, mais également le patriotique lion de Belfort. Dans ces années 1900 naît la Société anonyme des Automobiles et Cycles Peugeot, avec cinq usines, Beaulieu, Audincourt, Valentigney, Lille et, la toute dernière, Sochaux. Les années 1950 voient la fabrication de vélomoteurs, de moulins électriques, la montée des exportations automobiles, la croissance des effectifs... Les années 1960 voient la quatrième gamme Peugeot (404, 204, 104, 604), la construction de l’usine de Mulhouse, hors donc du pays de Montbéliard. Le dernier tiers du siècle : rachat de Citroën et de Simca, donc de l’usine de Poissy ; Peugeot devenant un « groupe », le deuxième de France, avec un rôle amoindri de la famille.
    Keywords: Peugeot,Lyon XXe siècle,Histoire de l'automobile en France
    Date: 2016–10–12
  13. By: Alberto Alesina (Harvard University; Igier); Bryony Reich (Northwestern University); Alessandro Riboni (Ecole Polytechnique; Crest)
    Abstract: This paper explores how the increase in army size observed in early modern times changed the way states conducted wars. Starting in the late 18th century, states switched from mercenaries to a mass army by conscription. We model the incentives of soldiers to exert effort in war and show that as army size increases paying mercenaries is no longer optimal. In order for the population to accept fighting in and enduring war, government elites began to provide public goods, reduced rent extraction, and adopted policies to homogenize the population. We also explore the variety of ways in which homogenization can be implemented, and study its e ects as a function of technological innovation in warfare.
    Keywords: Interstate Conflict, Public Good Provision, Nationalism, Military Revolution, Nation-Building.
    Date: 2017–12–01
  14. By: Baruah, Neeraj G.; Henderson, J. Vernon; Peng, Cong
    Abstract: Differential institutions imposed during colonial rule continue to affect the spatial structure and urban interactions in African cities. Based on a sample of 318 cities across 28 countries using satellite data on built cover over time, Anglophone origin cities sprawl compared to Francophone ones. Anglophone cities have less intense land use and more irregular layout in the older colonial portions of cities, and more leapfrog development at the extensive margin. Results are impervious to a border experiment, many robustness tests, measures of sprawl, and sub-samples. Why would colonial origins matter? The British operated under indirect rule and a dual mandate within cities, allowing colonial and native sections to develop without an overall plan and coordination. In contrast, integrated city planning and land allocation mechanisms were a feature of French colonial rule, which was inclined to direct rule. The results also have public policy relevance. From the Demographic and Health Survey, similar households, which are located in areas of the city with more leapfrog development, have poorer connections to piped water, electricity, and landlines, presumably because of higher costs of providing infrastructure with urban sprawl.
    Keywords: colonialism; persistence; Africa; sprawl; urban form; urban planning; leapfrog
    JEL: H7 N97 O1 R5
    Date: 2017–11–01
  15. By: Jo, Tae-Hee
    Abstract: This paper examines the historical developments of the institutionalist theory of the business enterprise since early 1900s. We will examine the major contributions in order to find the theoretical characteristics of the institutionalist theory of the business enterprise vis-à-vis evolving capitalism. The paper begins with a discussion of the present state of the institutional theory, looks back on the original ideas of Veblen and Commons, and goes on to later contributions, such as Gardiner Means, John Kenneth Galbraith, William Dugger, and Alfred Eichner. The paper concludes with a discussion as to what should be done for the further development of the institutionalist theory of the business enterprise.
    Keywords: Theory of the business enterprise, institutional economics, evolution of capitalism
    JEL: B50 B52 D20
    Date: 2018–01–22
  16. By: Xue, Melanie Meng; Koyama, Mark
    Abstract: This paper explores the impact of autocratic rule on social capital—defined as the beliefs, attitudes, norms and perceptions that support cooperation. Political repression is a distinguishing characteristic of autocratic regimes. Between 1660–1788, individuals in imperial China were persecuted if they were suspected of holding subversive attitudes towards the state. A difference-in-differences approach suggests that in an average prefecture, exposure to those literary inquisitions led to a decline of 38% in local charities—a key proxy of social capital. Consistent with the historical panel results, we find that in affected prefectures, individuals have lower levels of generalized trust in modern China. Taking advantage of institutional variation in 20th c. China, and two instrumental variables, we provide further evidence that political repression permanently reduced social capital. Furthermore, we find that individuals in prefectures with a legacy of literary inquisitions ar are more politically apathetic. These results indicate a potential vicious cycle in which autocratic rule becomes self-reinforcing through causing a permanent decline in social capital.
    Keywords: Social Capital, Institutions, Autocracy, China
    JEL: D71 D73 N45 Z1 Z10
    Date: 2018–01–25
  17. By: Abuselidze, George
    Abstract: This works covers peculiarities of formation of Georgian monetary system in XI-XII centuries and their effect on the international financial and economic relations. In this works we have researched the matters of formation of monetary policy of feudal age and their effect on development of foreign trade, methods of money formation important for the present world, which correct choice may provide increase of production volume and economic activity. Currency policy, geopolitical and geostrategic localization proved the country to turn into one of the economically strong economic states with high standard of life, developed system of socioeconomic relations approached to the international standards and democratic institutions.
    Keywords: History of Economy; Economic Development; Monetary Policy; Monetary System; Economic Activity.
    JEL: E42 E52 N13 N15 O1
    Date: 2018–01–21
  18. By: Bulut, Mehmet; Korkut, Cem
    Abstract: Although the waqfs have existed with the history of humanity and are useful in all societies, they had different role and place in Islamic societies. The waqfs have made institutionalized cooperation and solidarity among people. Especially in Islamic societies, great importance has been attached to waqfs. The waqfs that helped institutionalize the concept of infaq met many needs of the community. One of the Islamic states where the foundations are very active was the Ottoman Empire. The size of the waqf services in the Ottoman Empire expanded so much that, besides the human services, waqfs for injured birds and sick animals were established. The fact that the waqfs are so widespread in the state has made it possible to refer to the Ottoman Empire as a waqf civilization. One of the waqf types operating in the Ottoman Empire was the cash waqfs (CWs) which were made up of cash in the capital. The CWs operated the cash that made up its capital with various Islamic finance methods. Revenues from the operating money were used in the direction of waqf purpose. The CWs provided the vital necessities of the society such as education and religion in the period they were active in the Ottoman Empire. Another function of these waqfs was to operate as a micro-credit mechanism. Through these waqfs, the surplus and the accumulated savings in the hands of the asset owners were made available to merchants, farmers, craftsmen, and artisans. Hence, these waqfs have served as resource transfer channels as well as functioning as a charity in the society. The ultimate goal of CWs, which is the pioneer of modern interest-free financial institutions today, is different from these institutions. The CWs did not transfer the profits they got to the waqf founder or owner. The income obtained has been spent to fulfill the charitable services in the direction of the waqf purposes. Therefore, these institutions created Altruistic Finance Model operating within the borders of Islamic prohibitions and orders. In our study, the financial mentality of the Ottoman society in the context of the CWs and how this mentality shaped the CWs will be discussed.
    Keywords: Cash Waqfs, Ottoman Empire, Islamic Finance, Philanthropy, Altruistic Finance Model
    JEL: G21 N20 P45 Z12
    Date: 2017–05
  19. By: Dorian Jullien (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur)
    Abstract: This chapter discusses the similarities and differences in the plurality of practices regarding the use of interviews by historians of economics – i.e., either the use of someone else's interviews as sources or the use of interviews conducted by the historian for her or his work. It draws on methodological and historiographical contributions from other disciplines where the use of interviews is more systematic to characterize the practices in our discipline and to sometimes suggest further or new developments. The characterizations of the use of interviews by historians of economics focus on three interrelated factors that impact the relation between the historian (potentially as an interviewer) and her or his sources (i.e., the interviewee): (1) the goals of the research project for which interviews are used, (2) the potentially perceived threats to scientific credit and legitimacy that history of contemporary science can trigger for some scientists and (3) the specificities of oral sources compared to more traditional written sources. Word count (without bibliography and appendix): 8249 1
    Date: 2017
  20. By: Liepmann, Hannah (Humboldt University Berlin)
    Abstract: How does a negative labor demand shock impact fertility? I analyze this question in the context of the East German fertility decline after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. I exploit differential pressure for restructuring across East German industries which led to unexpected, exogenous, and permanent changes to labor demand. I find that throughout the 1990s, women more severely impacted by the demand shock had relatively more children than their less-severely-impacted counterparts. Thus, the demand shock did not only depress the aggregate fertility level but also changed the composition of mothers. My paper shows that these two effects do not necessarily operate in the same direction.
    Keywords: fertility; labor demand shock; industrial restructuring; east germany;
    JEL: J13 J23 P36
    Date: 2018–01–24
  21. By: Dominique Lejeune (CPGE, Louis le Grand)
    Abstract: Avec les Trente Glorieuses (1945-1974) la France entre dans l' « ère de la consommation de masse », de la fameuse croissance, de la « société d'abondance », de l'essor des services, etc. Jean Fourastié a écrit, en définissant en 1979 la période, « ces trente années sont glorieuses » mais on verra que le point de vue de Jean Fourastié est beaucoup plus nuancé qu'on ne l'a généralement dit. Les Trente Glorieuses sont loin d'être heureuses pour tous et l'oeuvre de l'abbé Pierre est bien connue. Pas ce soir de souvenirs ni de culture en serre de la nostalgie ! Au contraire, une tentative de véritable histoire, globale, d'une nation et d'une société, dans leurs variétés, celle, par exemple, des conditions féminines, une histoire avec ses césures, ainsi le « tournant » de Mai 68. Il est proposé de réfléchir sur la vie et l'histoire de la génération du baby-boom, en un temps où la France est l'un des rares pays européens à maintenir sa démographie, à faire fonctionner une protection sociale de qualité et l'ascenseur social. Tout cela avec l'obsession rhétorique chez les contemporains du « retard français » et des « records », avec l'idée naïve d'une « croissance à la française », évitant les travers américains. Loin des usages éculés de « croissance » et « France moderne », on retrouve une France encore largement rurale, celle du film Jour de fête de Jacques Tati, mais il s'agit d'une ruralité qui se transforme à vive allure, trop vite sans doute. Dans toute la nation des inégalités sociales se renforcent, les expressions et industries culturelles illuminent comme un feu d'artifice, des transformations environnementales très importantes se produisent et une contestation écologique naît pendant les Trente Glorieuses, contrairement à ce qu'on pense souvent. Et la France de la IVe et de la Ve République, gaullienne et pompidolienne, reste inéluctablement ancrée dans le capitalisme libéral et semi-dirigé, en temps de Guerre froide, de décolonisation et de Françafrique, un temps brutalement clos par la grande dépression de la fin du siècle dernier.
    Keywords: Trente Glorieuses en France,Jean Fourastié
    Date: 2016–10–10
  22. By: Jason M. Fletcher
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence of the impacts of early life exposure to the 1918 pandemic with old-age mortality by analyzing data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study (n ~ 220,000). The specifications used year and quarter of birth indicators to assess the effects of timing of pandemic exposure and used Cox proportional hazard models for all-cause mortality outcomes. The findings suggest evidence of excess all-cause mortality for cohorts born during 1918 and mixed evidence for cohorts born in 1917 and 1919. Therefore, contrary to some existing research, the results suggest no consistent evidence of the importance of specific windows of exposure by gestation period.
    Date: 2018–01
  23. By: Antonio Ciccone
    Abstract: A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast with those of Bazzi and Blattman, who argue that the new dataset rejects that commodity price downturns cause civil wars. The reason is that I calculate commodity price shocks using time-invariant (fixed) export shares as commodity weights. Bazzi and Blattman also calculate commodity price shocks using export shares as commodity weights but but the exports shares they use are time-varying. Using time-invariant export shares as commodity weights ensures that time variation in price shocks solely re ects changes in international commodity prices. Price shocks based on time-varying export shares partly re ect (possibly endogenous) changes in the quantity and variety of countries' exports, which jeopardizes causal estimation.
    Keywords: civil wars, commodity price downturns
    JEL: E3 O1 Q1 Q10
    Date: 2018–01
  24. By: Dorian Jullien (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur)
    Date: 2017
  25. By: Philipp Ager; Markus Brueckner; Benedikt Herz
    Abstract: This paper provides new insights on the link between structural change and the fertility transi-tion. In the early 1890s agricultural production in the American South was severely impaired by the spread of an agricultural pest, the boll weevil. We use this plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between changes in earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Our estimates show that lower earnings opportunities in agriculture lead to fewer children. We identify two channels: households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, and households switching to manufacturing faced higher opportunity costs of raising children. The lower earnings opportunities in agriculture also stimulated human capital formation, which we argue is consistent with the predictions of a quantity-quality model of fertility.
    Keywords: Fertility Transition, Structural Change, Industrialization, Agricultural Income
    JEL: J13 N31 O14
    Date: 2018–01
  26. By: Mohajan, Haradhan
    Abstract: This article provides partial mathematical analysis of Amartya Sen’s published paper “Peasants and Dualism With or Without Surplus Labor”. This paper may provide useful illustrations of the applications of mathematics to economics. Here three portions of Sen’s paper ‘the simplest model, production for a market response and to withdrawal of labor’ are discussed in some details. Results of the study are given in mathematical formulations with physical interpretations. An attempt is taken here to make the Sen’s paper more interesting to the readers who have desire for detailed mathematical explanations with theoretical analysis.
    Keywords: Peasant economy, output, Sen, withdrawal of labor
    JEL: Q1 Q18
    Date: 2016–01–10
  27. By: Christian von Hirschhausen
    Abstract: Nuclear power was one of the most important discoveries of the twentieth century, and it continues to play an important role in twenty-first century discussions about the future energy mix, climate change, innovation, proliferation, geopolitics, and many other crucial policy topics. This paper addresses some key issues around the emergence of nuclear power in the twentieth century and perspectives going forward in the twenty-first, including questions of economics and competitiveness, the strategic choices of the nuclear superpowers and countries that plan to either phase out or start using nuclear power, to the diffusion of nuclear technologies and the emergence of regional nuclear conflicts in the “second nuclear age”. The starting point for our hypothesis is the observation that nuclear power was originally developed for military purposes as the “daughter of science and warfare” (Lévêque 2014, 212), whereas civilian uses such as medical applications and electricity generation emerged later as by-products. Based upon this observation, we interpret the nuclear industry in terms of “economies of scope”, where strategies, costs, and benefits must be assessed in the multiproduct context of military and civilian uses of nuclear power. We propose a classification of different economic perspectives on nuclear electricity generation, and confirm the consensus of the literature that on its own, nuclear power has never been an economic method of producing electricity: not a single reactor in existence today was constructed by a private investor in a competitive, market economic framework. The economics-of-scope perspective is a useful heuristic to interpret countries’ strategic choices regarding the use of nuclear power. The paper provides a survey of strategies used by the nuclear superpowers (United States, Russia, China), by countries phasing out nuclear power because they cannot benefit from economies of scope (e.g., Italy, Spain, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland), and by potential newcomers who may expect synergies between military and civilian uses (e.g., Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, perhaps one day also Japan). We conclude that the future of nuclear power in the twenty-first century must be assessed in terms of economies of scope, and that a purely “economic” analysis of nuclear electricity is insufficient to grasp the complexity of the issue; this also raises conceptual challenges for energy modelers. The paper leaves out some important questions to be addressed in a future Part II of the assessment, such as economic and technical issues of plant decommissioning, long-term storage of waste, and the potential role of nuclear energy in climate policies.
    Keywords: Nuclear power, technology, competitiveness, economies of scope, geopolitics
    JEL: L52 L95 N7 Q48 Q54
    Date: 2017

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