nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2018‒01‒22
34 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Más de cien años de avances en el nivel de vida: El caso de Colombia By Adolfo Meisel-Roca; Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri; María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo
  2. L'analyse lexicale au service de la cliodynamique : traitement par intelligence artificielle de la base Google Ngram By Jérôme Baray; Albert Da Silva; Jean-Marc Leblanc
  3. De la Cumbiamba al Vallenato: Aproximación cultural, económica y política a la música de acordeón en el Caribe colombiano, 1870-1960 By Joaquín Viloria De La Hoz
  4. Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010 By Stockhammer, Engelbert; Rabinovich, Joel; Reddy, Niall
  5. Immigrants' Genes: Genetic Diversity and Economics Development in the US By Philipp Ager; Markus Brueckner
  6. The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 By Òscar Jordà; Katharina Knoll; Dmitry Kuvshinov; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor
  7. Savings Banks and the Industrial Revolution in Prussia Supporting Regional Development with Public Financial Institutions By Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle; Wahl, Fabian
  8. Why Is the ‘Post-Soviet’ Regionalism Post-Soviet? Historical Legacies and Regional Integration in Eurasia By Libman, Alexander; Obydenkova, Anastassia
  9. The Diffusion of New Institutions: Evidence from Renaissance Venice's Patent System By Stefano Comino; Alberto Galasso; Clara Graziano
  10. Ordering History Through the Timeline By Garibaldi, Eugenio; Garibaldi, Pietro
  11. Falling Behind and Catching up : India’s Transition from a Colonial Economy By Gupta, Bishnupriya
  12. Population control policies and fertility convergence By de Silva, Tiloka; Tenreyroa, Silvana
  13. Canada’s Experience with Trade Policy By Karyne B. Charbonneau; Daniel de Munnik; Laura Murphy
  14. Some doubts about the economic analysis of the flow of silver to China in 1550-1820 By Jacques Melitz
  15. Performativité des théories managériales By Jean-Luc Moriceau
  16. Intergenerational mobility in the 19th century: micro-level evidence from the city of Zurich By Giacomin Favre; Joël Floris; Ulrich Woitek
  17. Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address By Robert E. Hall; Thomas J. Sargent
  18. The short- and long-term effects of student absence: evidence from Sweden By Sarah Cattan; Daniel A. Kamhöfer; Martin Karlsson; Therese Nilsson
  19. From Autonomy to Subordination? Relations Between the State and the Representations of Interests on the German Labor Market By Michal Moszynski
  20. The Growth of the Italian Economy, 1861-1913: Revised Second-Generation Production-Side Estimates By Fenoaltea, Stefano
  21. Do Black Politicians Matter? By Trevon D. Logan
  22. Supply-side labour market reforms: a neglected cause of the productivity crisis By Alfred Kleinknecht
  23. Genuine Savings as a Test of New Zealand Weak Sustainability By Mubashir Qasim; Les Oxley; Eoin McLaughlin
  24. Weak States: Causes and Consequences of the Sicilian Mafia By Daron Acemoglu; Giuseppe De Feo; Giacomo De Luca
  25. The Dynamic Relationship Among the Money Market Mutual Funds, the Commercial Paper Market and the Repo Market By Haghani Rizi, Majid; Kishor, N. Kundan
  26. The context of conflict resolution - international relations and the study of peace and conflict By Ricardo Real P. Sousa
  27. Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary Policy By John B. Taylor
  28. The UK - Colombia tax treaty: 80 years in the making By Hearson, Martin
  29. Réguler les risques nucléaires par la souplesse : genèse d’une singularité française (1960-1985) By Michael Mangeon; Frédérique Pallez
  30. Market and state in socio-economic order: a brief review of theories By Anna E. Jurczuk; Piotr Pysz
  31. Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Twelve Countries By Chirwa, Themba G; Odhiambo, Nicholas M.
  33. History dependence in the housing market By Bracke, Philippe; Tenreyro, Silvana
  34. Les développeurs, une nouvelle classe sociale? By Paris Chrysos

  1. By: Adolfo Meisel-Roca; Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri; María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo
    Abstract: Este trabajo examina las tendencias a largo plazo observadas en el nivel de vida de la población colombiana durante los últimos cien años, con especial atención a la salud. Construimos un índice histórico de desarrollo humano para Colombia (IHDHC) para los siglos XIX y XX por género. Encontramos que no hubo avances importantes en los niveles de vida durante el siglo XIX, debido principalmente al estancamiento del PIB per cápita. Por el contrario, se observaron avances significativos en el siglo XX, especialmente en las mujeres. Durante la primera mitad del siglo, las mejoras se debieron principalmente a un mayor ingreso per cápita, mientras que las posteriores a la década de 1950 fueron el resultado de una mayor inversión pública en educación y salud. Los datos en salud muestran que el porcentaje de muertes por tuberculosis, neumonía y enfermedades gastrointestinales disminuyó significativamente a lo largo del siglo. Por el contrario, las muertes causadas por cáncer y enfermedades del corazón aumentaron considerablemente en las últimas décadas. Los resultados indican que la disminución en la tasa de mortalidad estuvo relacionada en gran medida con la expansión en el suministro de servicios de acueductos y alcantarillado. ******ABSTRACT: This paper examines the long-term trends observed in the standard of living of the Colombian population during the past one hundred years, with special attention on health. We construct a historical index of human development for Colombia (HIHDC) for the 19th and 20th centuries by gender. We find that there were no major advances in living standards during the 19th century due to the stagnation of GDP per capita as a result of the lack of dynamism in exports. On the contrary, significant advances in the HIHDC were seen in the twentieth century, especially for women. During the first half of the 20th century, the improvements were mainly driven by a higher per capita income, while improvements after the 1950s were driven by greater public investment in education and health. The health data show that the percentage of deaths from tuberculosis, pneumonia, and gastrointestinal diseases decreased significantly throughout the century. On the contrary, deaths caused by cancer and heart diseases have increased considerably in recent decades. Results show that the decline in mortality rate was largely related with the expansion in the provision of public goods, namely aqueducts and sewerage services.
    Keywords: Desarrollo Humano, Mortalidad, Enfermedades, Acueducto, Alcantarillado, Salud Pública, Diferencia en Diferencia.
    JEL: I00 I15 I18 N36 O10
    Date: 2018–01–17
  2. By: Jérôme Baray (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Albert Da Silva; Jean-Marc Leblanc
    Abstract: Cliodynamics is a fairly recent research field that considers history as an object of scientific study. Thanks to its transdisciplinary nature, cliodynamics tries to explain historical dynamical processes such as the rise or collapse of empires or civilizations, economic cycles, population booms, fashions through mathematical modeling, datamining, econometrics or cultural sociology. "Big data" aggregating historical, archaeological or economic informations is the material to feed these quantitative models. It can also incluse empirical analysis to validate assumptions and predictions of dynamic models using historical data. Cliodynamics is part of the cliometrics approach or "new economic history" which studies history through econometrics. Objectives On the one hand, we designed a robust lexical analysis method able to deal with a very large dated corpus series whose content evolves over time (big data) with the challenge of identifying societal evolutions and major historical periods in a cliodynamics perspective. Lexical analysis also examined the teachings to be learned from the Google books Ngram database, which details the number of annual words occurrences in scanned publications available in the Google Books search engine . It is assumed that this database has compiled about 20% of all books ever published in major languages. We focused our study on English-language books published in the United States and Great Britain. The objective was to identify the words frequencies evolving from year 1860 to 2008. Method Principles The method was to constitute, as a first step, a dictionary of the most commonly used English words, disregarding two-way terms, preposition, articles, pronouns. This dictionary has collected 1592 words covering many aspects of social and cultural life with terms related to politics, religion, arts and sciences, industry, objects, family and sentiments. In a second step, the percentage representation of each word in the dictionary was determined for each year after loading the huge Ngram Google Books (1-gram) database on Postgresql. Some words like "king" or "queen" are very well represented in the 19th century dictionary with the reign and power of royalties in Europe, but the use of these phrases declined in the 20th century. The words frequency in books is constantly evolving as time goes by. The third step was to perform a centered and standardized principal component analysis (PCA) on the table describing the representation of words in % by years from 1860 to 2008. A clustering of "years" is carried out using a neural network (artificial intelligence Kohonen map). The results show 8 different periods in history according to 3 different major tendancies in speeches : Humanist versus Scientific ; Chaos versus Organization ; Individualist versus Collectivist.
    Abstract: La cliodynamique est un domaine de recherche assez récent qui considère l’histoire comme un objet d’étude scientifique. De nature transdisciplinaire, la cliodynamique tente ainsi d’expliquer les processus dynamiques historiques comme la montée ou l’effondrement des empires ou civilisations, les cycles économiques, les booms de population, les modes grâce à la modélisation mathématique, le datamining, l’économétrie ou encore la sociologie culturelle. Les big data agrégeant des données historiques, archéologiques ou économiques sont la matière permettant d’alimenter ces modèles quantitatifs. La cliodynamique comporte également un volet empirique examinant l’adéquation des hypothèses et des prévisions de modèles dynamiques avec les données historiques. Elle s’inscrit dans la démarche de la cliométrie ou « new economic history » qui étudie l’histoire grâce à des méthodes tirées de l’économétrie. Objectifs Il s’agissait d’une part de concevoir une méthode robuste d’analyse lexicale capable de traiter une série de très gros corpus datés dont le contenu évolue à travers le temps (big data) avec l’enjeu de cerner les évolutions sociétales et les grandes périodes historiques clés dans le cadre de la cliodynamique. L'analyse lexicale s’est d’autre part penchée sur les enseignements à tirer de la base de données Google books Ngram qui détaille le nombre d'occurrences des mots utilisés année après année dans les publications scannées et intégrées au moteur de recherche Google Books. On considère que cette base a compilé environ 20% des livres publiés dans les langues majeures. Nous nous sommes focalisés sur les ouvrages en langue anglaise publiés aux Etats-Unis et en Grande Bretagne. L'objectif a été de cerner l'utilisation plus ou moins forte de certains mots selon les époques, la période d'étude ayant été fixée de 1860 à 2008. Principe de la méthode La méthode a été de constituer dans un premier temps un dictionnaire des mots anglais les plus usités en faisant abstraction des termes à double sens, préposition, articles, pronoms. Ce dictionnaire a dans cette version initiale rassemblé 1592 mots couvrant de nombreux aspects de la vie sociale et culturelle avec des termes liés à la politique, à la religion, aux arts et aux sciences, à l'industrie, aux objets, à la famille et aux sentiments. Dans un second temps, il a été déterminé la représentation en % de chacun de ses mots au sein du dictionnaire année après année après avoir mis l'imposante base Ngram Google Books (1-gram) sur Postgresql. Certains mots comme "king" ou "queen" sont très bien représentés dans le dictionnaire au 19ème siècle avec le règne et la puissance des pouvoirs royaux en Europe, mais l'usage de ces locutions décline au 20ème siècle. On constate donc une évolution constante de la fréquence des mots dans les ouvrages au fur et à mesure des époques. La troisième étape a été d'effectuer une analyse factorielle en composantes principales centrée et normée sur le tableau décrivant la représentation des mots en % selon les années de 1860 à 2008. Une classification des années en groupes est réalisée grâce à un réseau de neurones (carte auto-adaptative de Kohonen en IA). Les résultats montrent 8 périodes différentes dans l'histoire selon 3 tendances différentes dans les discours : humaniste versus scientifique; chaos versus organisation; individualiste versus collectiviste.
    Keywords: cliodynamique,analyse lexicale,Google Ngram,intelligence artificielle,big data
    Date: 2017–11–24
  3. By: Joaquín Viloria De La Hoz (Banco de la República)
    Abstract: A partir de los datos aportados por este trabajo se propone que el acordeón llegó por primera vez a las costas del Caribe colombiano en el año 1870, por lo que el instrumento está próximo a cumplir 150 años de presencia en el folclor colombiano. En la década de 1890 se encuentran referencias de los primeros conjuntos de cumbiamba que se componían de acordeón, caja y guacharaca. En la última década del siglo XIX y principios del siglo XX surgieron los primeros intelectuales que discutieron y difundieron la música de acordeón y el folclor costeño en general. En la segunda mitad del siglo XX el vallenato se convirtió en la música de mayor auge, primero en el Caribe colombiano y luego en toda Colombia, desplazando a los otros ritmos costeños como la cumbia y el porro. Su máximo exponente fue el compositor Rafael Escalona y su principal promotor el escritor Gabriel García Márquez, quien reconoció las influencias extra literarias de la música vallenata en sus obras. ******ABSTRACT: This document argues that the Accordion first arrived to the Caribbean coast of Colombia in 1870, which implies that the instrument is about to celebrate 150 years of influence in the culture of the region. There are references in the decade of 1890 that relate to the first musical groups of cumbiamba, which were integrated by an accordion, but also with Caja and Guacharaca. The first intellectuals that commented and spread the music of accordion and the folklore of the Caribbean region emerged during the last decade of the nineteenth century and the early twentieth. In the second half of the twentieth century, Vallenato became very popular. At first in the Caribbean region, but then in all of the country, displacing other coastal rhythms such as Cumbia and Porro. Its maximum exponent was the composer Rafael Escalona, and its main promoter the writer Gabriel García Márquez, who recognized the influence of this music in its work. Classification JEL: Z1, Z11, Z13, Z19
    Date: 2017–11
  4. By: Stockhammer, Engelbert (Kingston University London); Rabinovich, Joel (Université Paris-13); Reddy, Niall (New York University)
    Abstract: Most empirical macroeconomic research limited to the period since World War II. This paper analyses the effects of changes in income distribution and in private wealth on consumption and investment covering a period from as early as 1855 until 2010 for the UK, France, Germany and USA, based on the dataset of Piketty and Zucman (2014). We contribute to the post-Keynesian debate on the nature of demand regimes, mainstream analyses of wealth effects and the financialisation debate. We find that overall domestic demand has been wage-led in the USA, UK and Germany. Total investment responds positively to higher wage shares, which is driven by residential investment. For corporate investment alone, we find a negative relation. Wealth effects are found to be positive and significant for consumption in the USA and UK, but weaker in France and Germany. Investment is negatively affected by private wealth in the USA and the UK, but positively in France and Germany.
    Keywords: historical macroeconomics; demand regimes; Bhaduri-Marglin model; wealth effects; financialisation
    JEL: B50 E11 E12 E20 E21 N10
    Date: 2017–11–09
  5. By: Philipp Ager; Markus Brueckner
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between immigrants’ genetic diversity and economic development in the United States during the late 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries, a period commonly referred to as the age of mass migration from Europe to the New World. Our panel model estimates show that during this period, immigrants’ genetic diversity is significantly positively correlated with measures of US counties’ economic development. There exists also a significant positive relationship between immigrants’ genetic diversity in 1870 and contemporaneous measures of US counties’ average income. Our findings demonstrate that a significant relationship between genetic diversity and economic growth does not imply that economic development outcomes are deterministic. Episodes of mass immigration, as experienced in the United States during the 19th century, can significantly change the genetic diversity of countries; and by doing so, they affect countries’ development path.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Genetic Diversity, Immigration, Melting Pot
    JEL: J11 O51 Z13
    Date: 2017–10
  6. By: Òscar Jordà; Katharina Knoll; Dmitry Kuvshinov; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor
    Abstract: This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century. What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long-run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive dataset for all major asset classes, including—for the first time—total returns to the largest, but oft ignored, component of household wealth, housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new insights and puzzles.
    JEL: D31 E10 E44 G10 G12 N10
    Date: 2017–12
  7. By: Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle; Wahl, Fabian
    Abstract: We show that smaller, regional public financial intermediaries significantly contributed to industrial development, using a new data set of the foundation year and location of Prussian savings banks. This extends the banking-growth nexus beyond its traditional focus on the large universal banks, to savings banks. The saving banks had an impact through the financing of public infrastructure, such as railways, and new private factories. Saving banks were public financial intermediaries, so our results suggest that state intervention can be successful, particularly at early stages of industrial development when capital requirements are manageable, and access to international capital markets is limited.
    Keywords: Industrialisation; Prussia; Public Infrastructure; Regional and Urban Development; Savings Banks
    JEL: G21 N23 N74 N93 R11
    Date: 2017–12
  8. By: Libman, Alexander; Obydenkova, Anastassia
    Abstract: The goal of the paper is to systematically review the variety of arguments describing how the Soviet past influences the development of the Eurasian regionalism. While many references to the ‘post-Soviet’ regionalism imply that history should matter substantially for its evolution, to our knowledge, the arguments about particular effects of the historical legacies are scattered throughout the literature and rarely compared with each other. We argue that the historical legacies can matter for the Eurasian regionalism in two instances: by affecting the environment for the development of regional organizations and through the path-dependent evolution of organizations themselves. The paper concludes that the development of the Eurasian regionalism should indeed differ from that observed in many other parts of the world because of the Soviet legacies.
    Keywords: Eurasian regionalism, historical legacies, historical institutionalism
    JEL: F15
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Stefano Comino; Alberto Galasso; Clara Graziano
    Abstract: What factors affect the diffusion of new economic institutions? This paper examines this question by exploiting the introduction of the first regularized patent system, which appeared in the Venetian Republic in 1474. We begin by developing a model that links patenting activity of craft guilds with provisions in their statutes. The model predicts that guild statutes that are more effective at preventing outsiders' entry and at mitigating price competition lead to less patenting. We test this prediction on a new dataset that combines detailed information on craft guilds and patents in the Venetian Republic during the Renaissance. We find a negative association between patenting activity and guild statutory norms that strongly restrict entry and price competition. We show that guilds that originated from medieval religious confraternities were more likely to regulate entry and competition, and that the effect on patenting is robust to instrumenting guild statutes with their quasi-exogenous religious origin. We also find that patenting was more widespread among guilds geographically distant from Venice, and among guilds in cities with lower political connections, which we measure by exploiting a new database of noble families and their marriages with members of the great council. Our analysis suggests that local economic and political conditions may have a substantial impact on the diffusion of new economic institutions.
    JEL: K23 N23 O33 O34
    Date: 2017–12
  10. By: Garibaldi, Eugenio; Garibaldi, Pietro
    Abstract: History is a key subject in most educational system in Western countries, and there is ongoing concern about the the degree of historical knowledge and historical sensibility that students obtain after their high school graduation. This paper proposes a simple linetime test for quantitatively measuring a human sense of history. The paper reports the results of the test administered to approximately 250 Italian university students. There are two empirical results. First, students have remarkable difficulties in ordering basic events over the time line, with the largest mistakes observed around the events that took place in the Middle Age. Second, the paper uncovers a statistical regularity in the test performance across gender, with female subjects featuring a statistical significant and quantitatively sizable downward score. The gender difference is surprising, since existing literature on differences in cognitive abilities across gender suggests that female subjects outperform male subjects in memory related tests. The paper shows also that the gender difference survives to a variety of sub periods, and falls by only 20 percent when we distinguish between violent and non violent events.
    Keywords: Gender Difference; Sense of Time
    JEL: I12
    Date: 2017–12
  11. By: Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: India fell behind during colonial rule. The absolute and relative decline of Indian GDP per capita with respect to Britain began before colonization and coincided with the rising textile trade with Europe in the 18th century. The decline of traditional industries was not the main driver Indian decline and stagnation. Inadequate investment in agriculture and consequent decline in yield per acre stalled economic growth. Modern industries emerged and grew relatively fast. The falling behind was reversed after independence. Policies of industrialization and a green revolution in agriculture increased productivity growth in agriculture and industry, but Indian growth has been led by services. A strong focus on higher education under colonial policy had created an advantage for the service sector, which today has a high concentration of human capital. However, the slow expansion in primary education was a disadvantage in comparison with the high growth East Asian economies
    Date: 2018
  12. By: de Silva, Tiloka; Tenreyroa, Silvana
    Abstract: The rapid population growth in developing countries in the middle of the 20th century led to fears of a population explosion and motivated the inception of what effectively became a global population-control program. The initiative, propelled in its beginnings by intellectual elites in the United States, Sweden, and some developing countries, mobilized resources to enact policies aimed at reducing fertility by widening contraception provision and changing family-size norms. In the following five decades, fertility rates fell dramatically, with a majority of countries converging to a fertility rate just above two children per woman, despite large cross-country differences in economic variables such as GDP per capita, education levels, urbanization, and female labour force participation. The fast decline in fertility rates in developing economies stands in sharp contrast with the gradual decline experienced earlier by more mature economies. In this paper, we argue that populationcontrol policies are likely to have played a central role in the global decline in fertility rates in recent decades and can explain some patterns of that fertility decline that are not well accounted for by other socioeconomic factors.
    Keywords: fertility rates; birth rate; convergence; macro-development; Malthusian growth; population; population-control policies. growth; population.
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2017–04
  13. By: Karyne B. Charbonneau; Daniel de Munnik; Laura Murphy
    Abstract: This paper compiles the contemporary view on three major Canadian-led trade policies that have marked Canada’s economic history since Confederation: the National Policy (1879), the Canada–US Agreement on Automotive Products (Auto Pact, 1965) and the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 1989, including its extension to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994). The National Policy imposed broad-based tariff increases on imported manufactured goods with the primary intention to promote the development of the Canadian manufacturing sector. However, its effects on the manufacturing sector and on welfare overall were likely negative. The Auto Pact (which helped to liberalize trade in automobiles and auto parts between Canada and the United States) and the Canada–US FTA and NAFTA reversed the protectionism established under the National Policy generations earlier. These agreements generated more trade flows among Canada, the United States and Mexico and had positive benefits for Canadian consumers and producers. Because of production specialization and lower import prices, all participating countries benefited from trade liberalization. These benefits tend to be widely dispersed and fully realized over the longer term. In contrast, trade liberalization can also create significant short-run adjustment costs, negatively affecting certain industries and workers.
    Keywords: International topics, Trade Integration
    JEL: F13 N71 N72
    Date: 2018
  14. By: Jacques Melitz (CREST; CEPII; CEPR)
    Abstract: The paper takes issue with the mainstream economic analysis of the enormous flow of silver into China in 1550-1820. First, I challenge the view that arbitrage between gold and silver in European trade with China was important except for one twenty-year spell. Next, I argue that had China imported gold, its history would have been much the same. I also dispute the idea that the persistence of the silver inflows from 1550 to 1820 implies any persistent disequilibrium, and I maintain that economic theory can easily accommodate the view that the inflow of silver into China sponsored growth in China.
    Keywords: silver flows into China 1550-1820; silver/gold exchange rates; transaction costs in international trade
    JEL: N1 N15 N25 F36
  15. By: Jean-Luc Moriceau (DEFIS - Droit, Economie, Finances et Sociologie - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologie, Economie et Management - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - Grenoble École de Management (GEM) - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management)
    Abstract: La performativité des théories managériales se réfère à la capacité de celles-ci à ne pas seulement représenter ou expliquer le management mais à influencer, voire modeler, le comportement des managers dans le sens qu'elles prédisent.
    Keywords: Management et numérique,Performativité
    Date: 2017
  16. By: Giacomin Favre; Joël Floris; Ulrich Woitek
    Abstract: We analyze social mobility of decennial citizenry cohorts of Zurich born between 1780 and 1870. We categorize individuals according to their occupations and use different measures to show the level, change, and components of intergenerational mobility. Mobility was imperfect and weakly decreasing over time. Both level and change are driven by intergenerational persistence of occupations with a low socioeconomic position and low transition between low and high socioeconomic position.
    Keywords: Social mobility, occupational mobility, 19th century, Switzerland
    JEL: J62 N33 N34
    Date: 2018–01
  17. By: Robert E. Hall; Thomas J. Sargent
    Abstract: The immediate effect of Friedman's 1968 AEA presidential address on the economics profession was the introduction of an adaptive term in the Phillips curve that shifted the curve, as Friedman proposed, based on expected inflation. Initial formulations suggested that the shift was less than point-for-point, but later thinking, based on the emerging idea of rational expectations, together with the experience of the 1970s, came to agree with Friedman that the shift was by the full amount. The profession also recognized that Friedman's point was deeper---real outcomes are invariant to the monetary policy rule, not just to the trend in inflation. The presidential address made an important contribution to the conduct of monetary policy around the world. It ushered in low and stable inflation rates in all advanced countries, and in many less advanced ones.
    JEL: E31 E52 E61
    Date: 2017–12
  18. By: Sarah Cattan (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Daniel A. Kamhöfer (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Martin Karlsson (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Therese Nilsson (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Abstract: Instructional time is seen as an important determinant of school performance, but little is known about the effects of student absence. Combining historical records and administrative data for Swedish individuals born in the 1930s, we examine the impacts of absence in elementary school on short-term academic performance and long-term socio-economic outcomes. Our siblings and individual fi xed effects estimates suggest absence has a moderate adverse effect on academic performance. The detrimental effect fades out over time. While absence negatively correlates with fi nal education, income and longevity, we only fi nd robust evidence that it lowers the probability of employment at age 25-30.
    Keywords: Absence in school, educational performance, long-term effects, register data
    JEL: C23 I14 I21
    Date: 2017–10–05
  19. By: Michal Moszynski (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland)
    Abstract: The main aim of the article is to assess the functioning and outcomes of tripartite structures of cooperation consisting of trade union federations, employers' organizations and the state in Germany on the background of the evolution of the welfare state. In the historical description, which was carried on chronologically covering 50 years from late 1960s, tools of institutional analysis and comparison were used. Main results indicate that state policy initially supported trade unions and employers' organizations as institutions of mediation and collective bargaining centers, but over time the sphere of social security has become a source of tensions between labor and capital. Due to generating unemployment, buying social peace became dysfunctional and impossible to finance in the long run thus the government had to reform the labor market, social sphere and consequently the German welfare state.
    Keywords: collective bargaining, institutional analysis, tripartite cooperation, alliances for work, welfare state
    JEL: B5 J38 J52
    Date: 2018–01
  20. By: Fenoaltea, Stefano
    Abstract: This paper presents revised production-side constant-price historical national accounts for Italy from Unification to 1913; these amend the extant estimates at 1911 prices by the present author on the one hand and Alberto Baffigi on the other. The time series are updated to allow for short-term movements of agricultural production, to include the results of recent research on industry, to remove conspicuous overestimates in the services sector, and more: estimated total product appears more volatile, and generally lower, than the extant series suggest.
    Keywords: Measurement, pre-WW1 Italy, GDP
    JEL: N13 N53 N63 N73
    Date: 2017–12
  21. By: Trevon D. Logan
    Abstract: This paper exploits the history of Reconstruction after the American Civil War to estimate the causal effect of politician race on public finance. I overcome the endogeneity between electoral preferences and black representation using the number of free blacks in the antebellum era (1860) as an instrument for black political leaders during Reconstruction. IV estimates show that an additional black official increased per capita county tax revenue by $0.20, more than an hour's wage at the time. The effect was not persistent, however, disappearing entirely at Reconstruction's end. Consistent with the stated policy objectives of black officials, I find positive effects of black politicians on land tenancy and show that exposure to black politicians decreased the black-white literacy gap by more than 7%. These results suggest that politician race has large effects on public finance and individual outcomes over and above electoral preferences for redistribution.
    JEL: H2 H7 J1 N3 R5
    Date: 2018–01
  22. By: Alfred Kleinknecht
    Abstract: In spite of impressive stories about a Second Machine Age or Industry 4.0, growth rates of labor productivity in the US, Japan and Western Europe declined, during the last 10-15 years, to their lowest levels since World War II. Recent contributions on the productivity slowdown by mainstream economists produced an impressive amount of statistical data that certainly add to our understanding, but they fail addressing the negative impact of supply-side labor market reforms on innovation and productivity. I present theoretical arguments of how labor market deregulation can negatively influence innovation and productivity growth and I review empirical evidence.
    Keywords: Varieties of capitalism; structural reforms of lab or markets; innovation; productivity crisis
    JEL: J53 K31 O31
    Date: 2017–12
  23. By: Mubashir Qasim (School of Accounting, Finance and Economics,University of Waikato); Les Oxley (School of Accounting, Finance and Economics,University of Waikato); Eoin McLaughlin (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews)
    Abstract: The key aims of this paper are to: i) to extend the World Bank’s (WB) measure of Genuine Savings (GS) for New Zealand by using a longer time-series of data, 1950 – 2015; ii) improve GS estimates for New Zealand by adding additional dimensions to GS i.e. forestry; iii) investigate the relationship between several GS measures and the discounted values of GDP per capita and consumption per capita, used to proxy well-being; iv) test a series of hypotheses which relate GS to the change in future well-being using the framework proposed by (Ferreira, Hamilton, & Vincent, 2008) and v) investigate the effects of a growing population on the availability of future capital stocks by considering the consequences of ‘wealth-dilution’ as defined by Ferreira, et. al., (2008). The paper makes a contribution to the literature on GS, particularly in the context of New Zealand, by considering patterns of GS and well-being over a longer time span of data than has been previously used and adds to a relatively small, but growing literature on tests of GS using long- or relatively long- time series data (see e.g. Greasley, et. al., 2014; Greasley, et. al., 2017, Hanley, Oxley, Greasley, & Blum 2016). We conclude, based on the data used here, that New Zealand’s GS has been positive (i.e. weakly sustainable), since the start of our data series, even without allowing for the contribution of technological advancement. However, we also conclude that the effects of a growing population and a savings-gap, have lead to a ‘wealth-dilution’ effect needed to maintain real wealth per capita, as we estimate that there was an average savings gap (GS as a percentage of Gross National Savings) over the period 1955-2015 of 0.5% per annum.
    Keywords: Sustainability, Genuine Savings, Natural Capital, Hartwick Rule, New Zealand
    JEL: Q01 Q25 Q56 N57
    Date: 2018–01
  24. By: Daron Acemoglu; Giuseppe De Feo; Giacomo De Luca
    Abstract: We document that the spread of the Mafia in Sicily at the end of the 19th century was in part shaped by the rise of socialist Peasant Fasci organizations. In an environment with weak state presence, this socialist threat triggered landholders, estate managers and local politicians to turn to the Mafia to resist and combat peasant demands. We show that the location of the Peasant Fasci is significantly affected by an exceptionally severe drought in 1893, and using information on rainfall, we establish the causal effect of the Peasant Fasci on the location of the Mafia in 1900. We provide extensive evidence that rainfall before and after this critical period has no effect on the spread of the Mafia or various economic and political outcomes. In the second part of the paper, we use the source of variation in the location of the Mafia in 1900 to estimate its medium-term and long-term effects. We find significant and quantitatively large negative impacts of the Mafia on literacy and various public goods in the 1910s and 20s. We also show a sizable impact of the Mafia on political competition, which could be one of the channels via which it affected local economic outcomes. We document negative effects of the Mafia on longer-term outcomes (in the 1960s, 70s and 80s) as well, but these are in general weaker and often only marginally significant. One exception is its persistent and strong impact on political competition.
    JEL: H11 H75 K42 P16
    Date: 2017–12
  25. By: Haghani Rizi, Majid; Kishor, N. Kundan
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship among the financial assets of the money market funds, the commercial paper, and the repurchase agreement markets by undertaking a cointegration analysis of quarterly data over the 1985-2017 period. The evidence suggests that there exists a common long-term cointegrating trend among these three components of the shadow banking system. Any disequilibrium in this long-run relationship among these variables is corrected by movement in the financial assets of the money market funds. The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition from the estimated cointegrating relationship shows that the cyclical component in the money market funds is large and captures the huge swings in these markets during the financial crisis. Our results confirm the narrative evidence presented in Krishnamurthy et al. (2014), who argue that the short-term debt market investment opportunities in the form of the commercial paper and the repo market played a crucial role in the expansion of the balance sheet of the money market funds.
    Keywords: Shadow banking, Money Market Fund, Commercial Paper, Repurchase Agreement, TrendCycle Decomposition, Cointegration
    JEL: E44 G01 G10 G21 G32
    Date: 2017–12–23
  26. By: Ricardo Real P. Sousa
    Abstract: This paper provides a brief review of almost one century of academic research within the discipline of International Relations with a focus on the thinking about Peace and Conflict and its links to approaches in Conflict Resolution. The framework of analysis is based on the definition of science, what is studied and how it is studied, which delimits the analysis into the four debates in IR: between 1919 and the 1940s, the idealist versus realist debate; in the 1950s and 1960s, the traditionalist versus behaviourist debate; in the 1970s and 1980s, the inter-paradigm debate, and, since the 1990s, the rationalist versus reflectivist debate. This paper identifies how the classical conception of security centred on the state, the military and external threats was broadened by different approaches to include other actors (individuals, groups, societies, civilizations), other sectors (economic, political, social, environmental) and internal threats. In tandem, it maps the epistemological and sometimes ontological challenges to positivism and rationalism found in (Neo) Realism, (Neo) Liberalism and Marxism, by a set of post-positivist and reflective theories or approaches, such as the cases of Human Security, Feminism, Post-structuralism, Constructivism, Post-Colonialism, Critical Studies, and the Copenhagen School. The emergence and development of all these theories and approaches are historically contextualized alongside developments of Conflict Resolution approaches.
    JEL: F5 F50 F51 F53 F54
    Date: 2018–01
  27. By: John B. Taylor
    Abstract: This paper reviews the state of the debate over rules versus discretion in monetary policy, focusing on the role of economic research in this debate. It shows that proposals for policy rules are largely based on empirical research using economic models. The models demonstrate the advantages of a systematic approach to monetary policy, though proposed rules have changed and generally improved over time. Rules derived from research help central bankers formulate monetary policy as they operate in domestic financial markets and the global monetary system. However, the line of demarcation between rules and discretion is difficult to establish in practice which makes contrasting the two approaches difficult. History shows that research on policy rules has had an impact on the practice of central banking. Economic research also shows that while central bank independence is crucial for good monetary policy making, it has not been enough to prevent swings away from rules-based policy, implying that policy-makers might consider enhanced reporting about how rules are used in monetary policy. The paper also shows that during the past year there has been an increased focus on policy rules in implementing monetary policy in the United States.
    JEL: E52 E58 F33
    Date: 2017–12
  28. By: Hearson, Martin
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2017–10–16
  29. By: Michael Mangeon (IRSN - Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Frédérique Pallez (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: La France possède une tradition historique de codification des règles et un droit public extrêmement développé, mis en œuvre par une administration forte. Pourtant, le nucléaire semble avoir longtemps échappé à cette tradition. En analysant la mise en place et le fonctionnement du régime français de régulation des risques nucléaires, en France, entre 1960 et 1985, nous mettons en évidence une forme de souplesse, qui se traduit dans la nature des premiers instruments de régulation des risques (règles, normes, notes d’orientation…). Deux types d’explications permettent de rendre compte de ce phénomène : la structuration du réseau d’acteurs impliqués institutionnellement dans la régulation, et l’influence du contexte politique, industriel et social dans lequel évolue ce « petit monde » de la sureté nucléaire. Cette analyse nous amène ensuite à réfléchir, dans le contexte actuel, sur la dynamique du régime de régulation des risques.
    Keywords: régulation des risques , instrument de régulation , régime de régulation , nucléaire
    Date: 2017–12
  30. By: Anna E. Jurczuk (University of Bialystok, Poland); Piotr Pysz (University of Finance and Management in Bia³ystok, Poland)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present the views of various schools of economic thought on the sources of the institutional order of economies. The premises of the theories of constituted and spontaneous economic orders are taken as the criteria on the basis of which the sources of an institutional order are identified. In order to meet the research objectives, the paper present, on the basis of the theoretical notions of constituted and spontaneous economic orders, the views on the sources of institutional order in capitalism within the last 250 years, i.e. from the times of Adam Smith until the present day. Main results indicate that, the classical/neoclassical model of economic order, interpreted here as the ideal one, is arise by itself as a result of market interaction. In contradistinction to the above ultraliberal model of economic order is the consistently centralised model deriving from the Marxist tradition. A synthesis of the strictly liberal and the centralised models is the ordoliberal model of economic order. As regards the course of market interactions and the auto-formation of spontaneous rules of an economic order resulting from the market operations, it is a par exellence liberal concept. On the other hand, from the consistently centralised model it borrows the idea of top-down dictation of economic order principles by the political government. This synthesis constitutes ordoliberalism and implies a feedback between the constituted and spontaneous rules of economic order.
    Keywords: classical economics, Marxism, ordoliberalism, economic order, institutional analysis
    JEL: B1 B5
    Date: 2018–01
  31. By: Chirwa, Themba G; Odhiambo, Nicholas M.
    Abstract: This paper examines the short- and long-run relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption as an additional factor of production where state and macroeconomic stability variables are included in a multivariate growth model. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to investigate this relationship in twelve countries during the period 1970-2014, selected from three continents, namely: Europe (Luxemborg, Norway, Denmark, Belgium), Asia (Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, India), and Africa (South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Kenya), representing developed and developing countries. The study results reveal that electricity consumption is positively and significantly associated with economic growth in Luxemborg, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Japan, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Algeria, and Egypt; and negatively associated with economic growth in Kenya in the long run. In the short run, the results reveal a positive and significant association between electricity consumption and economic growth in Luxemborg, Denmark, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Algeria; and negatively associated in Egypt. The study therefore concludes that electricity consumption is an important factor of production in the study countries. Therefore, policy makers in economies where energy use leads to economic growth should focus on growth-promoting energy policies that are supported by macroeconomic stability policies.
    Keywords: Electricity Consumption; Macroeconomic Stability; Exogenous Growth Models; Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model; Europe; Asia; Africa
    Date: 2018–01–11
  32. By: Akpinar-Sposito Cansu (Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III); Alain Roger (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon)
    Abstract: Les femmes cadres sont souvent victimes d'un « plafond de verre » et rencontrent de nombreux obstacles pour parvenir aux plus hautes fonctions dans la plupart des entreprises. Dans une entreprise multinationale qui affiche une politique de diversité très développée, notre étude montre qu'au-delà des obstacles liés à la politique de l'organisation, des obstacles persistent au niveau individuel, mais aussi au niveau de la culture organisationnelle ou nationale. Sur la base des recherches effectuées sur le capital humain, nous faisons ressortir trois dimensions de l'évolution de carrière, les facteurs personnels, l'organisation familiale et le contexte organisationnel. L'étude est fondée sur des entretiens approfondis centrés sur l'analyse de la carrière et les réactions de quatorze femmes cadres de cette entreprise en précisant les facteurs qui leur ont permis de progresser, mais aussi les obstacles qu'elles ont rencontrés.
    Keywords: plafond de verre,plateau de carrière,diversité,réseaux,Carrière des femmes
    Date: 2017–10–11
  33. By: Bracke, Philippe; Tenreyro, Silvana
    Abstract: Using the universe of housing transactions in England and Wales in the last twenty years, we document a robust pattern of history dependence in housing markets. Sale prices and selling probabilities today are affected by aggregate house prices prevailing in the period in which properties were previously bought. We investigate the causes of history dependence, with its quantitative implications for the post-crisis recovery of the housing market. To do so we complement our analysis with administrative data on mortgages and online house listings, which we match to actual sales. We find that high leverage in the pre-crisis period and anchoring (or reference dependence) both contributed to the collapse and slow recovery of the volume of housing transactions. We find no asymmetric effects of anchoring to previous prices on current transactions; in other words, loss aversion does not appear to play a role over and above simple anchoring.
    Keywords: housing market; fluctuations; down-payment effects; reference dependence; anchoring; loss aversion labor market frictions; capital market frictions; volatility; labor market fluidity
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2016–10
  34. By: Paris Chrysos (ISC PARIS)
    Abstract: Icônes de l'innovation, les développeurs travaillent au coeur de la révolution numérique depuis ses débuts et continuent à animer les transformations sociales et économiques induites par les technologies émergentes. Pourtant, ces acteurs ont été injustement négligés par la recherche en sciences humaines et sociales. Cette sous-représentation tient, en partie, au fait que les développeurs ne sauraient être classés dans les statuts sociaux ou économiques habituels sans ignorer les dynamiques sous-jacentes qui font leur spécificité. Pour saisir ces dynamiques, il faut distinguer « travail officiel » et « projets personnels », une division fondamentale dans leur modus operandi.
    Date: 2017–10–28

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