nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2017‒10‒29
35 papers chosen by

  2. Emigration during the French Revolution: Consequences in the Short and Longue Durée By Raphaël Franck; Stelios Michalopoulos
  3. Engineering Growth: Innovative Capacity and Development in the Americas By William F. Maloney; Felipe Valencia Caicedo
  4. The Origins of the Italian Regional Divide: Evidence from Real Wages, 1861-1913 By Federico, Giovanni; Nuvolari, Alessandro; Vasta, Michelangelo
  5. Does population diversity matter for economic development in the very long-term? Historic migration, diversity and county wealth in the US By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; von Berlepsch, Viola
  6. The Migration of Protestant Music in European Culture By Cristian Caraman
  7. "The Paper Money of Colonial North Carolina, 1712-1774" By Farley Grubb
  8. Was Domar Right? Serfdom and Factor Endowments in Bohemia By Klein, Alex; Ogilvie, Sheilagh C.
  9. The Migration of Literary Ideas: The Problem of Romanian Symbolism By Cosmina Andreea Rosu
  10. Woman and the labour market in East and West Germany: Socialist legacy and pre-socialist tradition By Michael Wyrwich
  11. Religious Competition and Reallocation: The Political Economy of Secularization in the Protestant Reformation By Davide Cantoni; Jeremiah Dittmar; Noam Yuchtman
  12. Historical Antisemitism, Ethnic Specialization, and Financial Development By Francesco D'Acunto; Marcel Prokopczuk; Michael Weber
  13. Dynamic Trade, Endogenous Institutions and the Colonization of Hong Kong: A Staged Development Framework By T. Terry Cheung; Theodore Palivos; Ping Wang; Yin-Chi Wang; Chong K. Yip
  14. Frontier Knowledge and Scientific Production: Evidence from the Collapse of International Science By Iaria, Alessandro; Schwarz, Carlo; Waldinger, Fabian
  15. Officer Retention and Military Spending—The Rise of the Military Industrial Complex duringthe Second World War By Ahmed S. Rahman
  16. Negocio, tecnología e instituciones en la molienda del trigo en Castilla la Vieja y León a mediados del siglo XVIII By Javier Moreno Lázaro
  17. The Dissertations of Michela Giorcelli, Trevor Jackson, and Craig Palsson: 2017 Alexander Gerschenkron Prize Competition By Claude DIEBOLT
  18. Telecommunications Policy: An evaluation of 40 years' research history By Kwon, Youngsun; Kwon, Joungwon
  19. Migration of the Evangelical Culture in Romania After the Fall of Communism By Ieremia Rusu
  20. Tall Buildings and Land Values: Height and Construction Cost Elasticities in Chicago, 1870-2010 By Ahlfeldt, Gabriel; McMillen, Daniel
  21. Climate Risk, Cooperation, and the Co-Evolution of Culture and Institutions By Buggle, Johannes; Durante, Ruben
  22. Populists at the Polls: Economic Factors in the 1896 Presidential Election By Barry Eichengreen; Michael R. Haines; Matthew S. Jaremski; David Leblang
  23. Prix du blé, régulations et croissance économique : L’analyse cliométrique permet-elle de trancher le débat sur les bleds des années 1750? By Jean-Daniel Boyer; Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Sylvie Rivot
  24. Os Debates Metodológicos na Inglaterra nas Décadas de 1870 E 1880: o Desafio Historicista à Economia Política By Laura Valladão de Mattos
  25. Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis By Moritz Schularick; Bjorn Richter; Alan Taylor; Oscar Jorda
  26. Historical Aspects of the Hussite Migration in Moldavia for Religious Freedom By Ioan–Gheorghe Rotaru
  27. The Long-lasting Shadow of the Allied Occupation of Austria on its Spatial Equilibrium By Eder, Christoph; Halla, Martin
  28. The End of Men and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market By Nir Jaimovich; Henry Siu; Guido Matias Cortes
  29. Economic Origins of Cultural Norms: The Case of Animal Husbandry and Bastardy By Eder, Christoph; Halla, Martin
  30. Money and Credit: Lessons of the Irish bank strike of 1970 By Malte Krüger
  31. Long-run Money Demand in Switzerland By Gerlach, Stefan
  32. Two Great Trade Collapses: The Intewar Period & Great Recession Compared By Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  33. The Increased Role of the Federal Home Loan Bank System in Funding Markets, Part 2 : Recent Trends and Potential Drivers By Stefan Gissler; Borghan N. Narajabad
  34. Far Away Gold: How Distance to Host Country Affects Olympic Performance By Xiaobo He; Zijun Luo
  35. Bismarck in the bedroom? Pension reform and fertility: Evidence 1870-2010 By Jäger, Philipp

  1. By: Philippe Gillig
    Abstract: This paper deals with a debate about the universality of the “desire of wealth” in John Stuart Mill’s thought. The debate occurred in the literature about fifteen years ago, when Samuel Hollander and Sandra Peart published in 1999 a criticism of Abraham Hirsch and Neil De Marchi’s interpretation of Mill’s methodology. This article constitutes an attempt to solve the debate by providing a rationale for the disagreement between both sets of scholars. In particular, we show that the divergence between them comes from the fact that they ground their respective arguments using different texts, while neglecting that Mill gradually changed his mind in his writings subsequent to the 1836 essay entitled “On the Definition of Political Economy...”. First, in accordance with the development of his ethology, Mill deprived the maximizing behavior of its universal validity; then, Mill focused more and more on “competition” as economics’ basic axiom in order to stress its historical relevance; and finally Mill strengthened the relativity of the behavioral axiom with the introduction of the concept of “custom”.
    Keywords: homo œconomicus; universal laws; John Stuart Mill; economic methodology.
    JEL: B12 B41
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Raphaël Franck; Stelios Michalopoulos
    Abstract: During the French Revolution, more than 100,000 individuals, predominantly supporters of the Old Regime, fled France. As a result, some areas experienced a significant change in the composition of the local elites whereas in others the pre-revolutionary social structure remained virtually intact. In this study, we trace the consequences of the émigrés' flight on economic performance at the local level. We instrument emigration intensity with local temperature shocks during an inflection point of the Revolution, the summer of 1792, marked by the abolition of the constitutional monarchy and bouts of local violence. Our findings suggest that émigrés have a non monotonic effect on comparative development. During the 19th century, there is a significant negative impact on income per capita, which becomes positive from the second half of the 20th century onward. This pattern can be partially attributed to the reduction in the share of the landed elites in high-emigration regions. We show that the resulting fragmentation of agricultural holdings reduced labor productivity, depressing overall income levels in the short run; however, it facilitated the rise in human capital investments, eventually leading to a reversal in the pattern of regional comparative development.
    JEL: N10 O10 O15
    Date: 2017–10
  3. By: William F. Maloney; Felipe Valencia Caicedo
    Abstract: This paper offers the first systematic historical evidence on the role of a central actor in modern growth theory - the engineer. It collects cross-country and state level data on the labor share of engineers for the Americas, and county level data on engineering and patenting for the US during the Second Industrial Revolution. These are robustly correlated with income today after controlling for literacy, other types of higher order human capital (e.g. lawyers, physicians), demand side factors, and after instrumenting engineering using the Land Grant Colleges program. A one standard deviation increase in engineers in 1880 accounts for a 16% increase in US county income today, and patenting capacity contributes another 10%. We further show engineering density supported technological adoption and structural transformation across intermediate time periods. Our estimates help explain why countries with similar levels of income in 1900, but tenfold differences in engineers diverged in their growth trajectories over the next century. The results are supported by historical case studies from the US and Latin America.
    Keywords: innovative capacity, human capital, engineers, technology diffusion, patents, growth, structural transformation, development, history
    JEL: O11 O30 N10 I23
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Federico, Giovanni; Nuvolari, Alessandro; Vasta, Michelangelo
    Abstract: The origins of the Italian North-South divide have always been controversial. We fill this gap by estimating a new data-set of real wages (Allen 2001) from the Unification (1861) to WWI. Italy was very poor throughout the period, with a modest improvement since the late 19th century. This improvement started in the North-West industrializing regions, while real wages in other macro-areas remained stagnant. The gap North-West/South widened until the end of the period. Focusing on the drivers of the different regional trends, we find that human capital formation exerted strong positive effect on the growth of real wages.
    Keywords: 19th century; Italy; real wages; regional divide
    JEL: N01 N13 N33
    Date: 2017–10
  5. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; von Berlepsch, Viola
    Abstract: Does population diversity matter for economic development in the long-run? Does the impact of diversity differ over time? This paper traces the short-, medium-, and long-term economic impact of population diversity resulting from the big migration waves of the late 19th and early 20th centuries to the United States (US). Using census data from 1880, 1900, and 1910, the settlement pattern of migrants across the counties of the 48 US continental states is tracked in order to construct measures of population fractionalisation and polarisation at county level. Factors which may have influenced both the individual settlement decision at the time of migration as well as county-level economic development in recent years are controlled for. The results of the analysis show that high levels of population fractionalisation have a strong and positive influence on economic development in the short-, medium-, and long-run. High levels of polarisation, by contrast, undermine development. Despite a stronger effect on income levels in the first 30 years, these relationships are found to be extremely long-lasting: counties with a more heterogeneous population composition over 130 years ago are significantly richer today, whereas counties that were strongly polarised at the time of the migration waves have endured persistent negative economic effects.
    Keywords: Counties; diversity; economic development; Fractionalisation; Polarisation; USA
    JEL: J15 J61 O43 R11 R23
    Date: 2017–10
  6. By: Cristian Caraman (Timotheus Brethren Theological Institute of Bucharest)
    Abstract: The migration of musical art forms, from one nation to another, from one century to another and from one cultural context to another was a historical panacea of humanity. Through music, the Christian faith has managed to keep the dialogue open amongst the main Christian orientations—Catholic, Orthodox and Protestant/Evangelical. This article links the beginnings of protestant music, during the XIV and XVI centuries, to the spiritual manifestations that shaped the protestant music throughout history. A very important piece of the reformation is the Protestant chorale. The chorale brought forth the ideology of the reformation and gave life to the esthetic ideas of the humanists. The invention of the printing press in Krakow in 1475 helped spreading the teachings of Protestantism.
    Keywords: Reformation, Protestant music, humanism, Chorale, Protestant, Christian faith.
    Date: 2016–08
  7. By: Farley Grubb (Department of Economics, University of Delaware)
    Abstract: Beginning in 1712, North Carolina's assembly emitted its own paper money and maintained some of its paper money in public circulation for the rest of the colonial period. This paper money has been reviled as an archetype of what was bad about the paper monies issued by American colonial legislatures. Yet little systematic analysis of North Carolina's paper money has been undertaken. We correct that here. We reconstruct North Carolina's paper money regime from original sources—providing yearly quantitative data on printings, net new emissions, redemptions and removals, amounts remaining in circulation, denominational structure, as well as the paper money's current market value in pounds sterling. We identify different paper money regimes based on how the assembly structured and executed its paper money laws. We model and estimate how the market value of this money was determined. We compare the quantity theory of money with an asset-pricing model that treats the money as zero-coupon bonds to see which explains the observed market value of the paper money better. The asset-pricing model wins by a mile. Finally, we explore counterfactual redemption architectures to show how redemption affected monetary performance in periods of value collapse.
    Keywords: asset money, bills of credit, redemption, transaction premium, zero-coupon bonds
    JEL: E42 E51 G12 N11 N21
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Klein, Alex; Ogilvie, Sheilagh C.
    Abstract: Do factor endowments explain serfdom? Domar (1970) conjectured that high land-labor ratios caused serfdom by increasing incentives to coerce labor. But historical evidence is mixed and quantitative analyses are lacking. Using the Acemoglu-Wolitzky (2011) framework and controlling for political economy variables by studying a specific serf society, we analyze 11,349 Bohemian serf villages in 1757. The net effect of higher land-labor ratios was indeed to increase coercion. The effect greatly increased when animal labor was included, and diminished as land-labor ratios rose. Controlling for other variables, factor endowments significantly influenced serfdom. Institutions, we conclude, are shaped partly by economic fundamentals.
    Keywords: serfdom; land-labor ratio; institutions; labor coercion; rural-urban interaction
    JEL: J47 N33 O43 P48
    Date: 2017–10
  9. By: Cosmina Andreea Rosu (University of Pitesti)
    Abstract: The migration of symbolists’ ideas in Romanian literary field during the 1900’s occurs mostly due to poets. One of the symbolist poets influenced by the French literature (the core of the Symbolism) and its representatives is Dimitrie Anghel. He manages symbols throughout his entire writings, both in poetry and in prose, as a masterpiece. His vivid imagination and fantasy reinterpret symbols from a specific Romanian point of view. His approach of symbolist ideas emerges from his translations from the French authors but also from his original writings, since he creates a new attempt to penetrate another sequence of the consciousness. Dimitrie Anghel learns the new poetics during his years long staying in France.
    Keywords: writing, ideas, prose poem, symbol, fantasy.
    Date: 2016–08
  10. By: Michael Wyrwich (FSU Jena)
    Abstract: There is a large and successful literature exploiting the division and re-unification of Germany as a natural experiment for analysing the effects of political regimes on economic behaviour. This paper contributes to this literature by reassessing the role of legacy effects of socialist labour market policies for explaining the much higher female labour force participation (FLFP) in East Germany as compared to West Germany. The starting point of the analysis is the empirical pattern that FLFP was already higher in the East before German separation. Applying difference-in-differences analyses on participation rates shows that there is, if anything, only a small long-term socialist treatment effect. Apparently, there is no effect in areas that have been either rural or heavily industrialized before German separation. In line with previous research, this study finds that there is an East German mark-up for social acceptance of maternal employment. An additional and novel finding of this study is that current social acceptance of maternal employment is also driven by pre-war differences in female labour supply. This corresponds to a remarkable mark-up of married East German women in the labour market before German separation that is also descriptively shown in the paper. Overall, the results suggest that potential legacy effects of socialism on attitudes toward working women do not necessarily translate into meaningful East-West differences in terms of actual female labour force participation.
    Keywords: Female labour force participation, Gender, Attitudes toward work, Regional labour markets
    JEL: J16 J22 J23 N34 P25 P30 R23
    Date: 2017–10–23
  11. By: Davide Cantoni; Jeremiah Dittmar; Noam Yuchtman
    Abstract: Using novel microdata, we document an unintended, first-order consequence of the Protestant Reformation: a massive reallocation of resources from religious to secular purposes. To understand this process, we propose a conceptual framework in which the introduction of religious competition shifts political markets where religious authorities provide legitimacy to rulers in exchange for control over resources. Consistent with our framework, religious competition changed the balance of power between secular and religious elites: secular authorities acquired enormous amounts of wealth from monasteries closed during the Reformation, particularly in Protestant regions. This transfer of resources had important consequences. First, it shifted the allocation of upper-tail human capital. Graduates of Protestant universities increasingly took secular, especially administrative, occupations. Protestant university students increasingly studied secular subjects, especially degrees that prepared students for public sector jobs, rather than church sector-specific theology. Second, it affected the sectoral composition of fixed investment. Particularly in Protestant regions, new construction shifted from religious toward secular purposes, especially the building of palaces and administrative buildings, which reflected the increased wealth and power of secular lords. Reallocation was not driven by preexisting economic or cultural differences. Our findings indicate that the Reformation played an important causal role in the secularization of the West.
    JEL: E02 J24 N13 N33
    Date: 2017–10
  12. By: Francesco D'Acunto; Marcel Prokopczuk; Michael Weber
    Abstract: For centuries, Jews in Europe have specialized in financial services. At the same time, they have been the victims of historical antisemitism on the part of the Christian majority. We find that present-day financial development is lower in German counties where historical antisemitism was higher, compared to otherwise similar counties. Households in counties with high historical antisemitism have similar savings rates but invest less in stocks, hold lower bank deposits, and are less likely to get a mortgage-but not to own a house-after controlling for wealth and a rich set of current and historical covariates. Present-day antisemitism and supply-side forces do not appear to fully explain the results. Present-day households in counties where historical antisemitism was higher express lower trust in finance, but have levels of generalized trust similar to other households.
    Keywords: cultural economics, intergenerational transmission of norms, religious identity, household finance, history & finance
    JEL: D91 G11 J15 N90 Z10 Z12
    Date: 2017
  13. By: T. Terry Cheung; Theodore Palivos; Ping Wang; Yin-Chi Wang; Chong K. Yip
    Abstract: To explore the interplays between trade and institutions, we construct a staged development framework with multi-period discrete choices to study the colonization of Hong Kong, which served to facilitate the trade of several agricultural and manufactured products, including opium, between Britain and China. Based on the historical data and documents that we collected from limited sources, we design our dynamic trade model to capture several key features of the colonization process and use it to characterize the endogenous transition from the pre-Opium War era, to the post-Opium War era and then to the post-opium trade era, which span the period 1773-1933. We show that while the low opium trading cost and the high warfare cost initially postponed any military action, the high valuation of the total volume of bilateral trade, the rising opium trading cost and the anticipated increase in the demand for opium eventually led the British government to declare the Opium Wars, legalizing opium trade via the colonial Hong Kong. We also show that, in response to a drastic drop in opium demand and a rising opium trading cost, it became optimal for the British government to abandon opium trade soon after the founding of the Republic of China.
    JEL: E02 E65 F54 O11
    Date: 2017–10
  14. By: Iaria, Alessandro; Schwarz, Carlo; Waldinger, Fabian
    Abstract: We show that WWI and the subsequent boycott against Central scientists severely interrupted international scientific cooperation. After 1914, citations to recent research from abroad decreased and paper titles became less similar (evaluated by Latent Semantic Analysis), suggesting a reduction in international knowledge flows. Reduced international scientific cooperation led to a decline in the production of basic science and its application in new technology. Specifically, we compare productivity changes for scientists who relied on frontier research from abroad, to changes for scientists who relied on frontier research from home. After 1914, scientists who relied on frontier research from abroad published fewer papers in top scientific journals, produced less Nobel Prize-nominated research, introduced fewer novel scientific words, and introduced fewer novel words that appeared in the text of subsequent patent grants. The productivity of scientists who relied on top 1% research declined twice as much as the productivity of scientists who relied on top 3% research. Furthermore, highly prolific scientists experienced the starkest absolute productivity declines. This suggests that access to the very best research is key for scientific and technological progress.
    JEL: I23 J44 N3 N30 N4 N40 O3 O31 O5
    Date: 2017–10
  15. By: Ahmed S. Rahman (United States Naval Academy)
    Abstract: This paper examines how the region of origin of top military personnel within the U.S. Navy contributed to military expenditures around the country. We first discuss a theory of political economy for military spending--officers who remain in service eventually can help channel military funds and em- ployment to their respective regions of origin, either through political chan- nels or difusion of military culture. Further, if officer retention is positively related to poorer economic conditions at home (fewer work opportunities at home induces greater service lengths), military spending will tend to be progressive. To test these ideas we use personnel records of officers serv- ing in the U.S. Navy from 1870 to the late 1930s. Tracking the tenure of all officers, we construct measures of "military representation" across U.S. counties. We find that naval officer representation positively and robustly predicts regional naval spending (but not spending from other branches) during World War II.
    Date: 2017–10
  16. By: Javier Moreno Lázaro
    Abstract: This text offers an approximation to the milling of wheat in the middle of the eighteenth century with respect to its mercantile, technological and institutional nature. For this purpose, the general responses of the Catastro del Marqués de la Ensenada in Palencia have been used. The hypothesis is that the conditions for obtaining flour were extremely archaic in these three dimensions, but at the same time efficient enough to guarantee the bread supply to the Castilian population without altering the status quo between the nobility, the church and the councils. However, a review of the accounts of the large wheat mills reveals that this balance started to break down around 1780, just when the new Enlightenment agricultural policy was implemented.
    Keywords: Flour milling, Catastro de Ensenada, Palencia, toll
    JEL: N53 N63 N83 N93
    Date: 2017–10
  17. By: Claude DIEBOLT
    Abstract: Twenty PhDs in economics, economic history and history competed for the Alexander Gerschenkron Prize this year. Their research covered Africa, China, European and Latin American countries, India and Japan. Choosing three among these dissertations was a difficult and worrisome task. The three panelists of the 2017 edition are Michela Giorcelli, Trevor Jackson, and Craig Palsson.
    Keywords: Cliometrics, Economic History, Economics, History
    JEL: A12 N00 N1 N2 N3 N4
    Date: 2017
  18. By: Kwon, Youngsun; Kwon, Joungwon
    Abstract: Telecommunications Policy (TP) marked its 40-year milestone in 2016. At this juncture of 40-year milestone, this paper implements a text analysis with keyword frequency data derived from the abstracts of papers published for the past 40 years to take a look at the big picture of key concepts that constitute research subjects of the journal. With keywords and bibliographic data, this paper calculates key research indexes to overview dynamically changes in research focuses in the journal. This paper found that the difference in research performance across research subjects within three continents has declined over time, even though still there exist wide differences in research performance across subjects within nations, and the mid-1990s marked a watershed dividing the 40-year history into two parts.
    Keywords: Telecommunications policy,Key research area,Key research index,Theil index,Text analysis,Bibliographic analysis
    Date: 2017
  19. By: Ieremia Rusu (Timotheus Brethren Theological Institute of Bucharest)
    Abstract: The Evangelical churches were established in Romania during the 19th and 20th centuries, but their cultural influence became more prevalent after the fall of Communism. In the first part of this paper, the author analyzes the cultural trends that emerged after the Romanian revolution of December 1989. In the second part, the paper highlights three historical conceptions regarding Christ and culture. In the third part, the paper focuses on the migration of the Evangelical culture in the post-communist Romania. In the last part, the author offers few suggestions on how to extend the impact of the Evangelical culture in the Romanian culture, by the occasional adoption of the concepts “Christ against Culture†, and “Christ the Transformer of Culture.â€
    Keywords: Christ, Evangelical, culture, Romania, migration.
    Date: 2016–08
  20. By: Ahlfeldt, Gabriel; McMillen, Daniel
    Abstract: Cities around the world are experiencing unprecedented vertical growth. Yet, the economics of skyscrapers remain empirically understudied. This paper analyzes the determinants of the urban height profile by combining a micro-geographic data set on tall buildings with a unique panel of land prices covering 140 years. We provide novel esti-mates of the land price elasticity of height, the height elasticity of construction cost, and the elasticity of substitution between land and capital for tall buildings. In line with improvements in construction technology, the land price elasticity of height increased substantially over time, rationalizing a trend to ever taller buildings. The land price elasticity of height is larger for commercial than for residential buildings, suggesting that the typical segregation of land uses within cities is not exclusively shaped by the demand side, but also by the supply side.
    Keywords: Chicago; construction cost; density; height; land value; skyscraper
    JEL: R20 R30
    Date: 2017–10
  21. By: Buggle, Johannes; Durante, Ruben
    Abstract: This research examines the historical relationship between economic risk and the evolution of social cooperation. We hypothesize that norms of generalized trust developed in pre-industrial times as a result of experiences of cooperation triggered by the need of subsistence farmers to cope with climatic risk. These norms persisted over time, even after climate had become largely unimportant for economic activity. We test this hypothesis for Europe combining high-resolution climate data for the period 1500-2000 with survey data at the sub-national level. We find that regions with higher inter-annual variability in precipitation and temperature display higher levels of trust. This effect is driven by variability in the growing season months, and by historical rather than recent variability. Regarding possible mechanisms, we find that regions with more variable climate were more closely connected to the Medieval trade network, indicating a higher propensity to engage in inter-community exchange. These regions were also more likely to adopt inclusive political institutions earlier on, and are characterized by a higher quality of local governments still today. Our findings suggest that, by favoring the emergence of mutually-reinforcing norms and institutions, exposure to environmental risk had a long-lasting impact on human cooperation.
    Keywords: Climate; Cooperation; Persistence; Political Institutions; Risk; Trust
    JEL: N53 O11 O13 Q54 Z10
    Date: 2017–10
  22. By: Barry Eichengreen; Michael R. Haines; Matthew S. Jaremski; David Leblang
    Abstract: The 1896 presidential election between William Jennings Bryan and William McKinley has gained new salience in the wake of the 2016 contest. We provide the first systematic analysis of voting patterns in 1896, combining county-level returns with economic, financial, demographic and climatological data. Specifically, we consider the economic concerns of the Populists with falling crop prices, high interest rates and railroad monopolies. We show that Bryan did well where mortgage interest rates were high, railroad penetration was low, and crop prices had declined by most over the previous decade. Using our estimates, we show that further declines in crop prices or increases in interest rates would have been enough to tip the Electoral College in Bryan’s favor. But to change the outcome, the additional fall in crop prices would have had to be large. The counterfactual increase in interest rates appears, at first blush, to have been more modest. But where previous authors have argued that interest rates came down in the 1890s because of the entry of additional banks, our estimates indicate that bank entry would have had to be very significantly slower to tip the election. There is no question that economic grievances mattered in 1896. But small or even moderate changes in economic conditions would not have changed the outcome of the election.
    JEL: N0 N11
    Date: 2017–10
  23. By: Jean-Daniel Boyer; Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Sylvie Rivot
    Abstract: Au cours des années 1750, le débat sur les blés a secoué l’opinion française et contribué à faire naître la science nouvelle de l’économie politique. Il opposait notamment les défenseurs de la règlementation du commerce des grains aux partisans du libre-échange. Dans cet article, nous testons certains de leurs arguments grâce aux outils cliométriques. Nous les appliquons aux données disponibles et à de nouvelles bases constituées. Nous montrons que si la liberté des échanges a été favorable à une diminution de la volatilité des prix, elle n’a pas eu véritablement d’effet sur l’évolution de la production de grains.
    Keywords: croissance, prix du blé, libre-échange, cercle de Gournay, physiocratie, police des grains.
    JEL: B11 N13 N33 N53
    Date: 2017
  24. By: Laura Valladão de Mattos
    Abstract: Esse artigo analisa um debate, ocorrido nas décadas de 1870 e 1880, que se seguiu a fortes críticas lançadas por dois economistas historicistas, Thomas Cliffe Leslie e John Kells Ingram, à natureza dedutiva, abstrata e universalista da Economia Política. O objetivo desses economistas era substituir essa ciência por uma Economia de caráter indutivo e histórico. Walter Bagehot e William Stanley Jevons – defensores, respectivamente, da ortodoxia vigente e do marginalismo emergente – reagiram diretamente a esses críticos. A resposta de Bagehot foi reafirmar o método dedutivo da Economia Política, porém restringir a validade dessa ciência às sociedades comerciais avançadas como a Inglaterra. A reação de Jevons foi enfatizar a natureza dedutiva e universal da teoria econômica, mas defender a importância da existência de ramos de históricos e aplicados de investigação. Argumenta-se que, o desafio historicista colocou as questões metodológicas na ‘ordem do dia’ e fez com que esses economistas atribuíssem um ‘lugar’ para a história – ainda que não aquele almejado por Leslie e Ingram. Analisar esse debate metodológico permite uma compreensão melhor das alternativas que se apresentavam para a Economia ao final do século XIX e pode, quem sabe, jogar luz sobre os rumos que a nossa ciência tomou nas primeiras décadas do século XX.
    Keywords: Cliffe Leslie; John Ingram; Stanley Jevons; Walter Bagehot; historicismo
    JEL: B1 B15 B5
    Date: 2017–10–24
  25. By: Moritz Schularick (University of Bonn); Bjorn Richter (University of Bonn); Alan Taylor (Department of Economics & Graduate School of Management); Oscar Jorda (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco an)
    Abstract: Higher capital ratios are unlikely to prevent the next financial crisis. This is empirically true both for the pre-WW2 and the post-WW2 periods, and holds both within and between countries. We reach this startling conclusion using newly collected data on the liability side of banks’ balance sheets. Data coverage extends to 17 advanced economies from 1870 to 2013. A solvency indicator, the capital ratio has no value as a crisis predictor; but we find that liquidity indicators such as the loan-to-deposit ratio and the share of non-deposit funding do signal financial fragility, although they add little predictive power relative to that of credit growth on the asset side of the balance sheet. However, higher capital buffers have social benefits in terms of macro-stability: recoveries from financial crisis recessions are much quicker with higher bank capital.
    Date: 2017
  26. By: Ioan–Gheorghe Rotaru (‘Timotheus’ Brethren Theological Institute of Bucharest)
    Abstract: The study shows a few issues related to the migration of the Hussite believers during the 15th century due to the lack of religious freedom and religious or economic persecutions they were subjected to in Bohemia and Moravia which were their homeland, migrating towards Poland, Hungary, Transylvania and Moldavia where they found shelter and religious acceptance. A notable fact is that the rulers of Moldova at the time, Stefan the Great and Alexander the Kind who were Orthodox christians, not only did they offer the Hussite the possibility to leave in peace and unbothered by anybody due to their religious believes but even offered them certain privileges. The study shows that religious tolerance is a demonstration of love and respect towards another, indispensable qualities of a believer’s spiritual life.
    Keywords: Hussite, religious persecution, sect, heretics, acceptance, Moldavia.
    Date: 2016–08
  27. By: Eder, Christoph; Halla, Martin
    Abstract: After World War II, Austria was divided into four occupation zones for 10 years. We exploit the migration shock out of the Soviet zone to understand why economic activity is distributed unevenly in space. We show that the distorted population distribution has fully persisted until now. More direct measures of economic activity show an even higher concentration in the former non-Soviet zone. This gap in economic activity is growing over time, mainly due to commuting out of the former Soviet zone.
    JEL: R12
    Date: 2017
  28. By: Nir Jaimovich (Duke University); Henry Siu (University of British Columbia); Guido Matias Cortes (University of Manchester)
    Abstract: We document a new finding regarding the deterioration of labor market outcomes for men in the US: Since 1980, the probability that a college-educated man was employed in a cognitive/high-wage occupation fell. This contrasts starkly with the experience of college-educated women: their probability of working in these occupations rose, despite a much larger increase in the supply of educated women relative to men during this period. We study a general neoclassical model of the labor market that allows us to shed light on the forces capable of rationalizing these observations. The model indicates that one key channel is a greater increase in the demand for female-oriented skills in cognitive/high-wage occupations relative to other occupations. Using occupational-level data from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles, we find evidence that this relative increase in the demand for female skills is due to an increasing importance of social skills within such occupations. We find a strong and robust relationship between the change in the female share of employment and the importance of social skills in an occupation over time.
    Date: 2017
  29. By: Eder, Christoph; Halla, Martin
    Abstract: We explore the origins of the cultural norm regarding illegitimacy and test the hypothesis that traditional agricultural production structures influenced the historical illegitimacy ratio, and have a lasting effect until today. Based on data dating back to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, we use exogenous variation in the local agricultural suitability to show that descendants from societies focusing on animal husbandry (and not crop farming) are today still more likely to have a non-marital birth.
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2017
  30. By: Malte Krüger
    Abstract: In Ireland, there was a bank strike that led to a complete shut-down of the main part of the banking system from May to November 1970. The effects of this strike were surprisingly limited. This had led some observers to conclude that trade credit can easily substitute for bank deposits as a means of payment. In this paper, it is shown why it was possible to continue “business as usual” for an extended period of time. Subsequently, it is argued that such a situation would not have prevailed much longer. Due to rising risks for almost all transactors the use of trade credit would have declined and economic performance would have deteriorated progressively.
    Keywords: money, banking, payments, clearing&settlement, Ireland, trade credit
    JEL: E02 E59 E65 G21 N14
    Date: 2017
  31. By: Gerlach, Stefan
    Abstract: This paper studies long-run demand functions for Swiss M1 and M3, using annual data spanning the period 1907-2016. While the demand functions display plausible price and income elasticities, tests for structural breaks at unknown points in time detect instability in 1929 for real M1 and 1943 for real M3. This instability appears to arise from the way in which the opportunity cost is modelled. While using a single interest rate may be appropriate for M1, for M3 it would likely be helpful to take into consideration both the own return and the return on non-monetary assets.
    Keywords: cointegration; money demand; opportunity cost; Switzerland
    JEL: E4 E5 N1
    Date: 2017–10
  32. By: Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke (All Souls College, University of Oxford)
    Abstract: Preliminary version of a paper prepared for IMF-BNM-IMFER Conference on Globalization in the Aftermath of the Crisis and the IMF Economic Review. The research on which this paper is based was in part funded by the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546. The paper draws on many collaborations, and I am extremely grateful to my co-authors: Miguel Almunia, Agustin Bénétrix, Roberto Bonfatti, Alan de Bromhead, Barry Eichengreen, Alan Fernihough, Ronald Findlay, William Hynes, David Jacks, Markus Lampe, Gisela Rua, and Jeffrey Williamson. The usual disclaimer applies.
    Date: 2017–10–23
  33. By: Stefan Gissler; Borghan N. Narajabad
    Abstract: This note is the second part in a three part series. Part 1 provides some historical background and discusses key institutional characteristics of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) System. This note discusses recent trends in the FHLB system and potential drivers of those trends.
    Date: 2017–10–18
  34. By: Xiaobo He (School of Business, Institute for Regional and Industrial Development, Shanghai University of Internation Business and Economics); Zijun Luo (Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University)
    Abstract: This paper quantifies the causal effect of distance on relative medal outcomes in Summer Olympic Games by exploiting a panel data set of participating countries for 1960-2016. Potential endogeneity issues of distance between a participant and the host country are accounted for with instrumental variables. Based on the two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimations, it is found that changes in a country’s shares of gold medals are negatively affected by change in distances to host countries. This result is robust under various model specifications. Furthermore, no significant effect is found to exist in silver, bronze, or total number of medals.
    Keywords: Distance, Olympic, Gold Medal, Instrumental Variable
    JEL: C36 O11
    Date: 2017–10
  35. By: Jäger, Philipp
    Abstract: Rising public pension generosity has frequently been cited as one reason for the (persistently) declining fertility rates in many advanced economies. Despite the theoretical appeal, empirical evidence on the pension-fertility nexus is limited. To fill this gap, I study country-level fertility trends before and after 23 pension reforms using a long-run panel dataset starting in 1870. I find no evidence that pension reforms, on average, affect fertility in the way most theoretical models predict.
    JEL: H55 J13
    Date: 2017

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