nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2017‒10‒08
thirty-one papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States By Thomas Piketty; Emmanuel Saez; Gabriel Zucman
  2. Scarring and Selection in the Great Irish Famine By Matthias Blum; Christopher L. Colvin; Eoin McLaughlin
  3. Capital Accumulation, Private Property and Rising Inequality in China, 1978-2015 By Thomas Piketty; Li Yang; Gabriel Zucman
  4. Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts By Bertrand Garbinti; Jonathan Goupille-Lebret; Thomas Piketty
  5. Distributional National Accounts (DINA) Guidelines : Concepts and Methods used in WID.world By Facundo Alvaredo; Anthony Atkinson; Lucas Chancel; Thomas Piketty; Emmanuel Saez; Gabriel Zucman
  6. The Political Economy of State Regulation : The Case of the English Factory Acts By Katherine A. Moos
  7. Rentabilité et coût du capital dans le projet industriel algérien-Le cas de la Société Nationale des Véhicules Industriels (SNVI) By Rachid Mira
  8. Explaining the Mechanism of Growth in the Past Two Million Years Vol. I By Ron W. Nielsen
  9. Appendix to "Accounting for Wealth Inequality Dynamics: Methods, Estimates and Simulations for France (1800-2014)" By Bertrand Garbinti; Jonathan Goupille-Lebret; Thomas Piketty
  10. How does inequality affect long-run growth? By Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero
  11. "Revealing the Accounting Existence Through Debt-Receivable Practice at Majapahit Kingdom Era (1350)" By Novrida Qudsi Lutfillah
  12. Appendix to "From Soviets to Oligarchs: Inequality and Property in Russia, 1905-2016" By Filip Novokmet; Thomas Piketty; Gabriel Zucman
  13. National Accounts Series Methodology By Thomas Blanchet; Lucas Chancel
  14. Do 18th Century 'Bubbles' Survive the Scrutiny of 21st Century Time Series Econometrics? By Yang Hu; Les Oxley
  15. Droughts of Dismay: Rainfall and Assassinations in Ancient Rome By Cornelius Christian; Liam Elbourne
  16. A Long-Run Perspective on the Spatial Concentration of Manufacturing Industries in the United States. By Crafts, Nicholas; Alexander Klein, Alexander
  17. Institutional shocks and economic outcomes : Allende's election, Pinochet's coup and the Santiago stock market By Daniele Girardi; Samuel Bowles
  18. Capital productivity in industrialized economies: evidence from error-correction model and Lagrange Multiplier tests By Trofimov, Ivan D.
  19. Accounting for Wealth Inequality Dynamics: Methods, Estimates and Simulations for France (1800-2014) By Bertrand Garbinti; Jonathan Goupille-Lebret; Thomas Piketty
  20. Financial Crises and the Central Bank: Lessons from Japan during the 1920s By Masato Shizume
  21. What's Happening to U.S. Mortality Rates? By Anqi Chen; Alicia H. Munnell; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher
  22. Modernizing the financial system in Japan during the 19th century: National Banks in Japan in the Context of Free Banking By Masato Shizume; Masayoshi Tsurumi
  23. Tony Atkinson and his legacy By Rolf Aaberge; François Bourguignon; Andrea Brandolini; Francisco H. G. Ferreira; Janet C. Gornick; John Hills; Markus Jäntti; Stephen P. Jenkins; Eric Marlier; John Micklewright; Brian Nolan; Thomas Piketty; Walter J. Radermacher; Timothy M. Smeeding; Nicholas H. Stern; Joseph Stiglitz; Holly Sutherland
  24. Appendix to "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States" By Thomas Piketty; Emmanuel Saez; Gabriel Zucman
  25. Less is More? The child quantity-quality trade-off in early 20th century England and Wales By Fernihough, Alan
  26. Appendix to "Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts" By Bertrand Garbinti; Jonathan Goupille-Lebret; Thomas Piketty
  27. Agricultural crisis in Spain (19th and 20th centuries) By Vicente Pinilla
  28. Top wealth shares in the UK over more than a century. By Facundo Alvaredo; Anthony Atkinson; Salvatore Morelli
  29. From Soviets to Oligarchs: Inequality and Property in Russia, 1905-2016 By Filip Novokmet; Thomas Piketty; Gabriel Zucman
  30. Bubble Contagion: Evidence from Japan's Asset Price Bubble of the 1980-90s By Yang Hu; Les Oxley
  31. Local Labor Markets and the Persistence of Population Shocks By Sebastian Till Braun; Anica Kramer; Michael Kvasnicka

  1. By: Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics); Emmanuel Saez (University of California at Berkeley); Gabriel Zucman (University of California at Berkeley)
    Abstract: This paper combines tax, survey, and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the United States since 1913. Our distributional national accounts capture 100% of national income, allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth. We estimate the distribution of both pre-tax and post-tax income, making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality. Average pre-tax national income per adult has increased 60% since 1980, but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50% of the distribution at about $16,000 a year. The pre-tax income of the middle class—adults between the median and the 90th percentile—has grown 40% since 1980, faster than what tax and survey data suggest, due in particular to the rise of tax-exempt fringe benefits. Income has boomed at the top: in 1980, top 1% adults earned on average 27 times more than bottom 50% adults, while they earn 81 times more today. The upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000. The government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality. The reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults. The share of women, however, falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution, and is only 11% in the top 0.1% today.
    Date: 2016–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201603&r=his
  2. By: Matthias Blum (Queen’s University Belfast); Christopher L. Colvin (Queen’s University Belfast); Eoin McLaughlin (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews)
    Abstract: What impact do famines have on survivors? We use individual-level data on a population exposed to severe famine conditions during infancy to document two opposing effects. The first: exposure to insufficient food and a worsened disease environment is associated with poor health into adulthood – a scarring effect. The second: famine survivors do not themselves suffer any health impact – a slection effect. Anthropometric evidence from records pertaining to over 21,000 subjects born before, during and after the Great Irish Famine (1845-52), one of modern history’s most severe famine episodes, suggests that selection is strongest where famine mortality is highest. Individuals born in heavily-affected areas experienced no measurable stunted growth, while significant scarring was found only among those born in regions where the same famine did not result in any excess mortality.
    Keywords: famine, fetal origins hypothesis, anthropometrics, economic history, Ireland
    JEL: I15 I32 N33 Q54
    Date: 2017–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sss:wpaper:2017-10&r=his
  3. By: Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics); Li Yang (World Bank); Gabriel Zucman (University of California at Berkeley)
    Abstract: This paper combines national accounts, survey, wealth and fiscal data (including recently released tax data on high-income taxpayers) in order to provide consistent series on the accumulation and distribution of income and wealth in China over the 1978-2015 period. We find that the aggregate national wealth-income ratio has increased from 350% in 1978 to 700% in 2015. This can be accounted for by a combination of high saving and investment rates and a gradual rise in relative asset prices, reflecting changes in the legal system of property. The share of public property in national wealth has declined from about 70% in 1978 to 30% in 2015, which is still a lot higher than in rich countries (close to 0% or negative). Next, we provide sharp upward revision of official inequality estimates. The top 10% income share rose from 27% to 41% of national income between 1978 and 2015, while the bottom 50% share dropped from 27% to 15%. China’s inequality levels used to be close to Nordic countries and are now approaching U.S. levels.
    Date: 2017–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201706&r=his
  4. By: Bertrand Garbinti (Banque de France); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents "Distributional National Accounts" (DINA) for France. That is, we combine national accounts, tax and survey data in a comprehensive and consistent manner to build homogenous annual series on the distribution of national income by percentiles over the 1900-2014 period, with detailed breakdown by age, gender and income categories over the 1970-2014 period. Our DINA-based estimates allow for a much richer analysis of the long-run pattern found in previous tax-based series, i.e. a long-run decline in income inequality, largely due to a sharp drop in the concentration of wealth and capital income following the 1914-1945 capital shocks. First, our new series deliver higher inequality levels than the usual tax-based series for the recent decades, because the latter miss a rising part of capital income. Growth incidence curves look dramatically different for the 1950-1983 and 1983-2014 sub-periods. We also show that it has become increasingly difficult in recent decades to access top wealth groups with labor income only. Next, gender inequality in labor income declined in recent decades, albeit fairly slowly among top labor incomes E.g. female share among top 0.1% earners was only 12% in 2012 (vs. 7% in 1994 and 5% in 1970). Finally, we find that distributional changes can have large impact on comparisons of well-being across countries. E.g. average pre-tax income among bottom 50% adults is 30% larger in France than in the U.S., in spite of the fact that aggregate per adult national income is 30% smaller in France.
    Date: 2017–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201704&r=his
  5. By: Facundo Alvaredo (Paris School of Economics); Anthony Atkinson (Oxford University); Lucas Chancel (Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics); Emmanuel Saez (University of California at Berkeley); Gabriel Zucman (University of California at Berkeley)
    Date: 2016–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201602&r=his
  6. By: Katherine A. Moos (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a theory of why the state enacted social policy that regulated the length of the working day in 19th century industrial England. This paper will argue that, far from being capable of self-regulation, the capitalist labor market during Britain’s industrial revolution is best conceptualized as consisting of two major social coordination problems resulting from conflicting interests between and within capital and labor. Left unregulated, this dual social coordination problem caused the overexploitation of labor, with dire consequences for both the capitalist and working classes. The reason why this coordination problem could not self-correct was because the wage-labor bargain contained the externality of unwaged household labor. The existence of this externality became deleterious to firms’ profitability and workers’ survival, especially given the high levels of female labor force participation. This social coordination problem justified and required state regulation into industrial relations. By conceptualizing protective policy as the solution to a dual social coordination problem caused by conflicting interests among heterogeneous firms and workers, this paper extends the Polanyian framework with an explicit theory of exploitation based on the classical theory of competition and a feminist emphasis on social reproduction and unwaged labor.
    Keywords: English Factory Legislation, Social Coordination Problem, Game Theory, Labor Policy, Regulation, Hours of Work, Child Labor, Female Labor Force Participation
    JEL: B54 C72 J88 N3
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2017-17&r=his
  7. By: Rachid Mira (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))
    Abstract: La restructuration des entreprises publiques en Algérie en vue de leur insertion dans un modèle d’économie de marché a nécessité depuis les années 1980 la mise en place d’un ensemble d’institutions et la transition d’un mode de régulation monopoliste vers un mode plus concurrentiel. Cependant, l’institution Etat est restée jusqu’à nos jours l’institution clé soutenant un régime d’accumulation dépendant des ressources en hydrocarbures. La politique budgétaire et financière de l’Etat a donc soutenu et financé la restructuration des entreprises publiques dans le cadre d’une nouvelle stratégie industrielle orientée vers la substitution d’importation et la diversification des exportations. La restructuration de la SNVI opérée depuis les années 1990 s’est inscrite dans une démarche globale de politique industrielle visant à assainir les entreprises publiques et refinancer les investissements productifs en vue de pouvoir soit privatiser, soit nouer des partenariats. Cette stratégie a nécessité le transfert de ressources budgétaires pour financer les investissements et assainir la dette et les découverts bancaires qui a constitué un coût du capital supporté par l’Etat. La politique de partenariat avec des investisseurs étrangers vise à poursuivre un processus de restructuration et de restauration de la compétitivité sur un marché ouvert à la concurrence mais sous régulation sous régulation de l’Etat.
    Keywords: Economic transition, Algeria, industrial development, public expenditures
    JEL: L16 L22 L23 L24 L25 O11 O12 O25 P31
    Date: 2017–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-10&r=his
  8. By: Ron W. Nielsen
    Abstract: Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction of the currently accepted explanations of the mechanism of growth, which revolve around two fundamental but incorrect doctrines: (1) the doctrine of stagnation (inappropriately labelled also as Malthusian stagnation, because Malthus never claimed that his positive checks would cause a long-lasting and wide-spread stagnation) and (2) the doctrine of explosion described also as a takeoff, sprint, spike or by other similar attributes. These doctrines and other related postulates are contradicted even by precisely the same data, which are used in the economic research and by the research results published in a prestigious scientific journal as early as in 1960. The generally accepted explanations are not based on a rigorous analysis of data but on impressions created by the easily misleading features of hyperbolic distributions. Two leading theories: the Demographic Transitions Theory (or Model) and the Unified Growth Theory are fundamentally incorrect. Descriptions of the past socio-economic conditions are not questioned. They might have been harsh, difficult and primitive but they are not reflected in the growth trajectories. They did not create stagnation in the economic growth and in the growth of population. Likewise, impacts of the Industrial Revolution on many aspects of life are not questioned. It is only demonstrated that this event had absolutely no impact on shaping growth trajectories. A general law of growth is formulated and used to explain the mechanism of growth of human population and of economic growth. The growth was predominantly hyperbolic. Such a growth is described by exceptionally simple mathematical function and the explanation of the mechanism of growth turns out to be also simple.
    Date: 2017–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.01768&r=his
  9. By: Bertrand Garbinti (Banque de France); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This data appendix provides methodological details and complete data series for our paper "Accounting for Wealth Inequality Dynamics: Methods, Estimates and Simulations for France (1800-2014)". It is supplemented by a set of data files and computer codes (GGP2016Wealth.zip).
    Date: 2016–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201606&r=his
  10. By: Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero
    Abstract: This article shows that countries with higher historical levels of income inequality, dating back to the early 1800s, experienced lower rates of growth centuries after in terms of number of firms created, number of employees hired, firms’ output, value added and profit margin. To increase the understanding as the channels through which historical inequality deterred growth, the article exploits the differences across industries’ intensities in skilled labour, physical capital, dependence on external finance and written contracts across 28 sectors in 57 countries during the 1985–2010 period. It is shown that industries relatively more in need of external finance and contracts experienced lower firm creation growth in countries with higher levels of past inequality. Similarly, industries intensive in skilled labour and physical capital experienced lower rate of growth in the number of employees hired, firms’ output and real value in more unequal countries.
    Keywords: Inequality, Entrepreneurship, panel study
    JEL: O11 O47 C5
    Date: 2017–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:84&r=his
  11. By: Novrida Qudsi Lutfillah (Economic and Business Faculty, Brawijaya University, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Eko Ganis Sukoharsono Author-2-Workplace-Name: Brawijaya University, Indonesia Author-3-Name: Aji Dedi Mulawarman Author-3-Workplace-Name: Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia Author-4-Name: "Yeney Widya Prihatiningtias" Author-4-Workplace-Name: Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia)
    Abstract: "Objective – The Kingdom of Majapahit was a phenomenal civilization in the Indonesian history. Accounting was then practiced in the everyday life of the kingdom. The purpose of this study is to explore the accounting practices of debtreceivable accounts during the Majapahit Kingdom era of 1350 and to find the values behind their use. Methodology/Technique – This study is a historical qualitative study. Its primary source of data are inscriptions and legislation manuscripts taken from the Kutara Manawasastra of the Majapahit era. Historical analysis is used to analyze data with historiography so as to expose the results of the historical research. This will help to reveal the underlying values in debt-receivable practices in the era. Findings – The findings of this study reveal that the values of debt-receivable accounts being practiced in the Majapahit era comprise the social, economic and spiritual dimensions. The trust and spiritual values were practiced as a means to tie the mutual benefits between creditors and debtors. Novelty – The findings reveal the accounting existence of the historical past."
    Keywords: "Debt; Receivables; Accounting History; The Kingdom Of Majapahit, Trust; Spiritual Values. JEL Classification:"
    JEL: H63 M41
    Date: 2016–12–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:afr118&r=his
  12. By: Filip Novokmet (Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics); Gabriel Zucman (University of California at Berkeley)
    Abstract: This appendix supplements our paper and describes the full set of data files and computer codes (NPZ2017.zip) that were used to construct the series.
    Date: 2017–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201710&r=his
  13. By: Thomas Blanchet (Paris School of Economics); Lucas Chancel (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This methodological note presents the methodology followed to construct homogeneous series of national accounts presented on WID.world (i.e. series of net national income, gross domestic product, net foreign income, consumption of fixed capital and population) covering (almost) all countries in the world, from at least 1950 to today.
    Date: 2016–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201601&r=his
  14. By: Yang Hu (University of Waikato); Les Oxley (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: Applying the methods of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015, PSY), while considering the possibility of non-stationary volatility (Harvey et al. 2016), evidence of exuberance in share prices is confirmed for the South Sea Company, and established for a number of other 18th century financial organisations, for the first time. The timings of these bubble episodes show signs of possible contagion.
    Keywords: exuberance; GSADF test; bubble; South Sea Company; Mississippi Company
    JEL: C12 N2
    Date: 2017–09–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:17/19&r=his
  15. By: Cornelius Christian (Department of Economics, Brock University); Liam Elbourne (St. Francis Xavier University)
    Abstract: We find that lower rainfall in north-central Europe (Gaul/Germania) predicts more assassinations of Roman emperors from 27 BC to 476 AD. Due to agricultural pressures on Germanic tribes, low precipitation caused more barbarian raids. These raids, in turn, weakened the Empire’s overall political stability, and reduced the costs of assassinating an emperor. We buttress our empirical analysis with case study evidence.
    Date: 2017–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brk:wpaper:1703&r=his
  16. By: Crafts, Nicholas (University of Warwick); Alexander Klein, Alexander (University of Kent)
    Abstract: We construct spatially-weighted indices of the geographic concentration of U.S. manufacturing industries during the period 1880 to 1997 using data from the Census of Manufactures. Several important new results emerge from this exercise. First, we find that average spatial concentration was much lower in the late 20th- than in the late 19th-century and that this was the outcome of a continuing reduction over time. Second, the persistent tendency to greater spatial dispersion was characteristic of most manufacturing industries. Third, even so, economically and statistically significant spatial concentration was pervasive throughout this period.Keywords: manufacturing belt; spatial concentration; transport costs. JEL Classification: N62; N92; R12.
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:339&r=his
  17. By: Daniele Girardi (University of Massachusetts Amherst); Samuel Bowles (Santa Fe Institute)
    Abstract: To study the effect of political and institutional changes on the economy, we look at share prices in the Santiago exchange during the tumultuous political events that characterized Chile in the early 1970s. We use a transparent empirical strategy, deploying previously unused daily data and exploiting two largely unexpected shocks which involved substantial variation in policies and institutions, providing a rare natural experiment. Allende's election and subsequent socialist experiment decreased share values, while the military coup and dictatorship that replaced him boosted them, in both cases by magnitudes unprecedented in the literature.
    Keywords: institutional shocks, natural experiment, share prices, Chile, socialism, military coup, elections
    JEL: P00 P16 D02 E02 N2
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2017-19&r=his
  18. By: Trofimov, Ivan D.
    Abstract: The paper re-examines the “stylized facts” of the balanced growth in developed economies, looking specifically at capital productivity variable. The economic data is obtained from European Commission AMECO database, spanning 1961-2014 period. For a sample of 22 OECD economies, the paper applies univariate LM unit root tests with one or two structural breaks, and estimates error-correction and linear trend models with breaks. It is shown that diverse statistical patterns were present across economies and overall mixed evidence is provided as to the stability of capital productivity and balanced growth in general. Specifically, both upward and downward trends in capital productivity were present, while in several economies mean reversion and random walk patterns were observed. The data and results were largely in line with major theoretical explanations pertaining to capital productivity. With regard to determinants of the capital productivity movements, the structure of capital stock and the prices of capital goods were likely most salient.
    Keywords: Capital productivity, structural breaks, unit root tests, growth
    JEL: C12 C22 N10 O47
    Date: 2017–09–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:81655&r=his
  19. By: Bertrand Garbinti (Banque de France); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper combines different sources and methods (income tax data, inheritance registers, national accounts, wealth surveys) in order to deliver consistent, unified wealth distribution series by percentiles for France over the 1800-2014 period, with detailed breakdowns by age, gender, income and assets over the 1970-2014 sub-period. We find a large decline of the top 10% wealth share from the 1910s to the 1980s (from 80-90% of total wealth during the 19th century up until World War 1, down to 50-60% in the 1980s),mostly to the benefit of the middle 40% of the distribution(the bottom 50% wealth share is always less than 10%). Since the 1980s-90s, we observe a moderate rise of wealth concentration, with large fluctuations due to asset price movements. In effect, rising inequality in saving rates and rates of return pushes toward rising wealth concentration, in spite of the contradictory effect of housing prices. We develop a simple simulation model highlighting how the combination of unequal saving rates, rates of return and labor earnings leads to large multiplicative effects and high steady-state wealth concentration. Small changes in the key parameters appear to matter a lot for long-run inequality. We discuss the conditions under which rising concentration is likely to continue in the coming decades.
    Date: 2017–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201605&r=his
  20. By: Masato Shizume (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University)
    Abstract: A series of financial crises following a boom during World War I marked the turning point for the emergence of prudential policy in Japan. An economic backlash after the war created mounting bad loans. After the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced a special treatment facility for the devastated area. The BOJ hoped to rescue solvent but illiquid financial institutions, but the facility was abused by banks that were already in financial distress, paving the way toward a financial crisis. Banking panic spread nationwide in the spring of 1927. In 1928, the authorities introduced new arrangements for prudential policy with mergers and acquisitions, new types of regulations, and dual inspection by the Ministry of Finance and the BOJ. These arrangements restored financial stability while imposing a new constraint on monetary policy.
    Date: 2016–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:1611&r=his
  21. By: Anqi Chen; Alicia H. Munnell; Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher
    Abstract: A key factor affecting the cost of the Social Security program is how long beneficiaries live. Life expec­tancy is determined by mortality rates – that is, the probability of dying at each age. While mortality rates have been declining over time, progress has not been uniform. Sometimes mortality rates decline very rapidly, and sometimes they decline slowly. More­over, rates of improvement vary by age. For example, during most of the 20th century the mortality of in­fants and the working-age population fell faster than the mortality of retirees. This “age-gradient” matters for Social Security, since mortality improvements for young adults tend to help Social Security’s finances by expanding the size of the workforce paying into the system, while improvements at, say, age 65 tend to worsen it by increasing spending on benefits for longer-lived retirees. This brief explores the swings in the rate at which mortality has improved since 1900 and the impor­tance of the age gradient in these improvements over the period. It also takes a closer look at the years since 1969, when detailed data on cause of death are available. In retrospect, the factors leading to the speeding up and slowing down of mortality improve­ment are relatively clear. The future, as always, is harder to predict. This brief is the first of two on mortality rates; the second one will provide an inter­national perspective. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides an overview of mortality trends and the age patterns since 1900. The second section focuses on the swings in mortality improvement in the last 40 years and the patterns by education level and by disease. The third section discusses the major drivers of these outcomes – such as developments in medicine, greater access to health care, the decline in smoking, and the rise in obesity. The fourth section explores the major factors that will influence the rate of improvement in mortality over the next 75 years. The final section concludes that the key debate for the long term is whether the future will mirror the past, with mortality rates of improvement fluctuating around 1 percent per year, or whether the big gains are behind us, with mortality improving less rapidly in the future.
    Date: 2017–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2017-17&r=his
  22. By: Masato Shizume (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University); Masayoshi Tsurumi (Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the role of competing concepts of the banking system in the process of modernizing the financial system in Japan. The country has a long history of its own version of private note issuance dating back to the early 17th century. In the late 19th century, the Japanese government considered two options for modernizing its financial system, national/free banking as in the United States, and central banking as in Europe. It first decided to adopt the former because the Japanese economy was decentralized and more closely resembled the economy of the United States than that of the European countries. However, the Japanese government customized the banking system for the Japanese situation. After some trial and error, the government turned to the latter option and established the central bank in 1882.
    Keywords: the modern banking system, free banking, national banks, the Bank of Japan
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:1607&r=his
  23. By: Rolf Aaberge (Research Department, Statistics Norway and ESOP, Department of Economics, University of Oslo); François Bourguignon (Paris School of Economics); Andrea Brandolini (DG Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy); Francisco H. G. Ferreira (Development Economics Research Group, The World Bank); Janet C. Gornick (LIS and The Graduate Center, City University of New York); John Hills (London School of Economics); Markus Jäntti (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Stephen P. Jenkins (London School of Economics); Eric Marlier (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)); John Micklewright (University College London); Brian Nolan (University of Oxford); Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics); Walter J. Radermacher (Former Director General of Eurostat); Timothy M. Smeeding (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Nicholas H. Stern (London School of Economics); Joseph Stiglitz (Columbia University); Holly Sutherland (Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex)
    Abstract: Tony Atkinson is universally celebrated for his outstanding contributions to the measurement and analysis of inequality, but he never saw the study of inequality as a separate branch of economics. He was an economist in the classical sense, rejecting any sub-field labelling of his interests and expertise, and he made contributions right across economics. His death on 1 January 2017 deprived the world of both an intellectual giant and a deeply committed public servant in the broadest sense of the term. This collective tribute highlights the range, depth and importance of Tony’s enormous legacy, the product of over fifty years’ work.
    Keywords: Anthony B. Atkinson, inequality, poverty, public economics, economic theory, economic policy
    JEL: A1 B32 D3 D6 H00 I3
    Date: 2017–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1138_17&r=his
  24. By: Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics); Emmanuel Saez (University of California at Berkeley); Gabriel Zucman (University of California at Berkeley)
    Abstract: This Data Appendix supplements our paper "Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States." It provides complete details on the methodology, data, and programs.
    Date: 2016–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201604&r=his
  25. By: Fernihough, Alan
    Abstract: Whilst the child quantity-quality (QQ) model is theoretically well-established, the empirical literature offers only partial support. Motivated by the limited causal empirical evidence in both historic and contemporary societies, this study examines the relationship connecting fertility and child quality for individual families in England and Wales at the start of the 20th century. Using data from the 1911 census returns, I estimate whether reductions in family size reduce the probability of leaving school. To account for the endogenous nature of fertility decisions, I use the sex composition of the first two births in families with at least two children as an instrumental variable (IV) for family size. Overall, I find evidence in support of a child QQ effect, as children in the 13-15 age cohort born into smaller families were more likely remain in school. Whilst the IV results are very similar to the non-IV ones, one drawback is that the IV estimates are quite imprecise.
    Keywords: Quantity-Quality,Human Capital,Demographic Transition
    JEL: J10 N3 O10
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201707&r=his
  26. By: Bertrand Garbinti (Banque de France); Jonathan Goupille-Lebret (Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This data appendix provides methodological details and complete data series for our paper "Income Inequality in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts (DINA)". It is supplemented by a set of data files and computer codes (GGP2017DINA.zip).
    Date: 2017–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201705&r=his
  27. By: Vicente Pinilla
    Abstract: Spanish agriculture over the last two centuries has been mostly analysed from the perspective of its evolution, on many occasions over the long term, and with respect to its contribution to Spain's economic development (or, on the contrary, its possible “responsibility” for the relative backwardness of Spain). Here, however, the emphasis is placed on the opposite case, on the difficulties or crises which have affected it. Agricultural crises are not only important for explaining difficult periods during which the population and the agricultural sector have faced problematic circumstances. They have also generated a sufficiently large impact so as to provoke a reorganisation of the agricultural sector and significant changes within it. The crisis of the Ancien Régime brought about a complete transformation of the predominant agrarian institutions. On occasions, technological change was fostered by crisis situations. The depression at the end of the nineteenth century gave rise to the introduction of new technologies which profoundly modernised the sector to maintain its feasibility. In the same way, international integration affected agriculture and profound changes were required in order to maintain leading positions in international markets. Therefore, without a clear understanding of the agricultural crises, it is difficult to obtain a clear and precise perspective of the profound transformations experienced by Spanish agriculture throughout history.
    Keywords: Spanish economic history, Spanish agricultural history, agricultural crises
    JEL: N13 N14 N53 N54 Q11
    Date: 2017–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:seh:wpaper:1705&r=his
  28. By: Facundo Alvaredo (Paris School of Economics); Anthony Atkinson (Oxford University); Salvatore Morelli (Centro Studi di Economia e Finanza)
    Abstract: Recent research highlighted controversy about the evolution of concentration of personal wealth. In this paper we provide new evidence about the long-run evolution of top wealth shares for the United Kingdom. The new series covers a long period – from 1895 to the present – and has a different point of departure from the previous literature: the distribution of estates left at death. We find that the application to the estate data of mortality multipliers to yield estimates of wealth among the living does not substantially change the degree of concentration over much of the period both, in the UK and US, allowing inferences to be made for years when this method cannot be applied. The results show that wealth concentration in the UK remained relatively constant during the first wave of globalization, but then decreased dramatically in the period from 1914 to 1979. The UK went from being more unequal in terms of wealth than the US to being less unequal. However, the decline in UK wealth concentration came to an end around 1980, and since then there is evidence of an increase in top shares, notably in the distribution of wealth excluding housing in recent years. We investigate the triangulating evidence provided by data on capital income concentration and on reported super fortunes.
    Date: 2016–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201702&r=his
  29. By: Filip Novokmet (Paris School of Economics); Thomas Piketty (Paris School of Economics); Gabriel Zucman (University of California at Berkeley)
    Abstract: This paper combines national accounts, survey, wealth and fiscal data (including recently released tax data on high-income taxpayers) in order to provide consistent series on the accumulation and distribution of income and wealth in Russia from the Soviet period until the present day. We find that official survey-based measures vastly under-estimate the rise of inequality since 1990. According to our benchmark estimates, top income shares are now similar to (or higher than) the levels observed in the United States. We also find that inequality has increased substantially more in Russia than in China and other ex-communist countries in Eastern Europe. We relate this finding to the specific transition strategy followed in Russia. According to our benchmark estimates, the wealth held offshore by rich Russians is about three times larger than official net foreign reserves, and is comparable in magnitude to total household financial assets held in Russia.
    Date: 2017–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wel:wpaper:201709&r=his
  30. By: Yang Hu (University of Waikato); Les Oxley (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: This paper subjects one of the most documented asset price bubbles of the 1980-90s in Japan, to the rigors of recent time series-based econometric tests. We focus on testing for bubbles in the Japanese stock and real estate markets from 1970Q1 to 1999Q4 using the right-tailed unit root test of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015, PSY). We also utilize the econometric methods of Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016) to explore the possibility of contagion between these two markets. We find significant econometric based evidence of bubbles in both markets during this period in Japan and importantly, for the first time in the literature, signs of bubble contagion from Japan's stock market to its real estate market.
    Keywords: Japanese asset price bubble; contagion; stock market; real estate market
    JEL: C12 G12 R30
    Date: 2017–09–28
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:17/20&r=his
  31. By: Sebastian Till Braun (School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews); Anica Kramer (RWI); Michael Kvasnicka (Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg)
    Abstract: This paper studies the persistence of a large, unexpected, and regionally very unevenly distributed population shock, the inflow of eight million ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe to West Germany after World War II. Using detailed census data from 1939 to 1970, we show that the shock had a persistent effect on the distribution of population within local labor markets, but only a temporary effect on the distribution between labor markets. These results suggest that locational fundamentals determine population patterns across but not within local labor markets, and they can help to explain why previous studies on the persistence of population shocks reached such different conclusions.
    Keywords: Population shock, locational fundamentals, agglomeration economies, regional migration, post-war Germany
    JEL: J61 R12 R23 N34
    Date: 2017–09–30
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:wpecon:1716&r=his

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