nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2017‒06‒25
twenty-two papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Minorities, Human Capital and Long-Run Development: Persistence of Armenian and Greek Influence in Turkey By Eren Arbatli; Leonardo Gokmen Gunes
  2. Unions, Workers, and Wages at the Peak of the American Labor Movement By Brantly Callaway; William J. Collins
  3. L'histoire immobile? Six centuries of real wages in France from Louis IX to Napoleon III: 1250-1860 By Leonardo Ridolfi
  4. Finance, farms, and the Fed's early years By Bruce Carlin; William Mann
  5. Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid-1990s - main developments By Eckhard Hein
  6. Origins and implications of family structure across Italian provinces in historical perspective By Graziella Bertocchi; Monica Bozzano
  7. Industrial Espionage and Productivity By Glitz, Albrecht; Meyersson, Erik
  8. Qu'est-ce qu'un préfet déporté ? Destins contrastés des préfets de Vichy déportés By Jean-Claude Barbier
  9. The Legacies of Slavery in and out of Africa By Graziella Bertocchi
  10. Episodes of financial deepening: credit booms or growth generators? By Peter L. Rousseau; Paul Wachtel
  11. Disease and Fertility: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden By Boberg-Fazlic, Nina; Ivets, Maryna; Karlsson, Martin; Nilsson, Therese
  12. An empirical assessment of the Swedish Bullionist Controversy By Nils Herger
  13. Roots of Autocracy By Galor, Oded; Klemp, Marc
  14. "Understanding Financialization: Standing on the Shoulders of Minsky" By Charles J. Whalen
  15. The Origins of Private Property By Colombatto, Enrico; Tavormina, Valerio
  16. Mortality Inequality in Canada and the U.S.: Divergent or Convergent Trends? By Michael Baker; Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt
  17. Family farms of North America By John Ikerd
  18. Women Make Houses, Women Make Homes By Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude; Khamis, Melanie; Yuksel, Mutlu
  19. Technical note on applying the WHO standard/reference to historical data By Eric B. Schneider
  20. Long-Term Effects of Extended Unemployment Benefits for Older Workers By Kyyrä, Tomi; Pesola, Hanna
  21. The making of a liberal education: Political economy of Austrian school reform, 1865 - 1875 By Tomáš Cvrcek; Miroslav Zajicek
  22. La politique de concurrence européenne ou l'extension du domaine de l'intégration By Sarah Guillou

  1. By: Eren Arbatli (Faculty of Economic Sciences, NRU); Leonardo Gokmen Gunes (New Economic School, Moscow)
    Abstract: We study the long-term economic legacy of highly-skilled minorities a century after their wholesale expulsion. Using mass expulsions of Armenian and Greek communities of the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century as a unique natural experiment of history, we show that districts with greater presence of Armenian and Greek minorities at the end of the 19th century are systematically more densely populated, more urbanized, and more developed today. Results are robust to accounting for an extensive set of geographical and historical factors of development and minority settlement patterns. Matching type estimators, instrumental variable regressions, and a sub-province level case study corroborate our findings. Importantly, we provide evidence on the channels of persistence. Armenian and Greek contribution to long-run development is largely mediated by their legacy on local human capital accumulation. In comparison, the mediating effect of minority asset transfer on development appears less important.
    Keywords: human capital, economic development, expulsion, minorities, ethnicity, Armenians, Greeks, persistence. JEL Classification: O100, O430, P480, N400, Z120.
  2. By: Brantly Callaway; William J. Collins
    Abstract: We study a novel dataset compiled from archival records, which includes information on men’s wages, union status, educational attainment, work history, and other background variables for several cities circa 1950. Such data are extremely rare for the early post-war period when U.S. unions were at their peak. After describing patterns of selection into unions, we measure the union wage premium using unconditional quantile methods. The wage premium was larger at the bottom of the income distribution than at the middle or higher, larger for African Americans than for whites, and larger for those with low levels of education. Counterfactuals are consistent with the view that unions substantially narrowed urban wage inequality at mid-century.
    JEL: J5 N12
    Date: 2017–06
  3. By: Leonardo Ridolfi
    Abstract: This paper presents new series of real wages for male farmers and construction workers in France from 1250 to 1860. Between the first half of the thirteenth century and the mid-nineteenth century real wages displayed no substantial trend improvement. Even in the post-Black Death period, after a sharp temporary rise in real wages, there are few traces of a French 'golden age' of labour especially during the worst phases of the Hundred Years War. In addition, consistently with the Malthusian interpretation, we find evidence of a long lasting inverse relationship between real wages and population.
    Keywords: Real wages, Living standards, France
    Date: 2017–06–19
  4. By: Bruce Carlin; William Mann
    Abstract: We provide causal evidence that discount rate changes by the Federal Reserve affected economic output in the 1920s. Our identification strategy exploits county-level variation in access to the Fed's discount window, and we implement this strategy with hand-collected data on banking and agriculture in Illinois in the early 20th century. The mechanism for the Fed's effect on agriculture was a bank credit channel, operating independently of any deflationary effect on money supply. Our findings suggest that the Fed deliberately managed transitory shocks during 1920-1921, mitigating debt burdens with which farms would struggle in the years leading to the Great Depression.
    JEL: B26 G21 G28
    Date: 2017–06
  5. By: Eckhard Hein
    Abstract: In this paper the main developments in post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid-1990s will be reviewed. For this purpose the main differences between heterodox economics in general, including post-Keynesian economics, and orthodox economics will be reiterated and an overview over the strands of post-Keynesian economics, their commonalities and developments since the 1930s will be outlined. This will provide the grounds for touching upon three important areas of development and progress of post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid-1990s: first, the integration of distribution issues and distributional conflict into short- and long-run macroeconomics, both in theoretical and in empiri-cal/applied works; second, the integrated analysis of money, finance and macroeconomics and its appli-cation to changing institutional and historical circumstances, like the process of financialisation; and third, the development of full-blown macroeconomic models, providing alternatives to the mainstream ?New Consensus Model? (NCM), and allowing to derive a full macroeconomic policy mix as a more con-vincing alternative to the one implied and proposed by the mainstream NCM, which has desperately failed in the face of the recent crises.
    Keywords: post-Keynesian macroeconomics, heterodox vs. orthodox economics, pluralism in economics, distribution, money, finance, macroeconomics, macroeconomic policies
    JEL: B22 E12
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Graziella Bertocchi; Monica Bozzano
    Abstract: In this study we review the literature on the origins and implications of family structure in historical perspective with a focus on Italian provinces. Furthermore we present newlycollected data on three of the main features of family structure: female mean age at marriage, the female celibacy rate, and the fraction of illegitimate births. The data are collected at the provincial level for 1871, the year of Italy's political unification. The analysis of the data allows us to confirm and quantify the geographic differentiation in family patterns across the country. We also illustrate the links between family structure and a set of socio-economic outcomes, in the short, medium, and long run.
    Keywords: Family structure, Italian provinces, institutions, culture, development
    Date: 2016–10
  7. By: Glitz, Albrecht (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Meyersson, Erik (Stockholm School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the economic returns to industrial espionage by linking information from East Germany's foreign intelligence service to sector-specific gaps in total factor productivity (TFP) between West and East Germany. Based on a dataset that comprises the entire flow of information provided by East German informants over the period 1970–1989, we document a significant narrowing of sectoral West-to-East TFP gaps as a result of East Germany's industrial espionage. This central finding holds across a wide range of specifications and is robust to the inclusion of several alternative proxies for technology transfer. We further demonstrate that the economic returns to industrial espionage are primarily driven by relatively few high quality pieces of information and particularly strong in sectors that were closer to the West German technological frontier. Based on our findings, we estimate that the average TFP gap between West and East Germany at the end of the Cold War would have been 6.3 percentage points larger had the East not engaged in industrial espionage.
    Keywords: espionage, productivity, R&D, technology diffusion
    JEL: D24 F52 N34 N44 O30 O47 P26
    Date: 2017–06
  8. By: Jean-Claude Barbier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: La déportation des préfets est mal connue, y compris quand elle est évoquée dans les cérémonies officielles dans les années 2000. Deux sortes d'écrits en parlent : quelques ouvrages écrits par des membres de leur famille, ou, exceptionnellement, par les préfets déportés eux-mêmes ; la mémoire de l'administration, ensuite, où le « Mémorial des fonctionnaires du corps préfectoral et de l'administration centrale, morts au cours de la guerre (1939-1945) » occupe une place éminente. La présente étude a été menée à partir des dossiers personnels des préfets déportés aux Archives nationales et de leurs dossiers de déportés à Caen. À la question « Qu'est-ce qu'un préfet déporté ? », elle permet de répondre: pour une petite minorité, un cinquième, ce fut un exclu entré dès l'été 1940 en résistance ; pour un autre cinquième, ce fut un préfet réussissant sa carrière sous Vichy qui s'engagea clairement pour la Résistance au début 1944 ; pour les trois autres cinquièmes, ce fut un préfet réussissant sa carrière sous Vichy, ayant des liens variables avec la Résistance, arrêté comme personnalité-otage, donc épargné de la condition habituelle du détenu de camp de concentration, que les occupants avaient sélectionné à l'aide de listes établies par la Résistance. La présente étude a aussi tenté de recenser les déportés appartenant au reste du corps préfectoral (chefs de cabinet, sous-préfets et secrétaires généraux). Selon ce recensement plus incertain que celui des préfets, il y aurait eu à peu près autant de déportés dans les deux catégories (environ 50 au total), et un nombre égal de morts (huit, soit seize au total). Quelques agents de l'administration centrale sont aussi présents dans le Mémorial.
    Keywords: Vichy, préfets, résistance
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Graziella Bertocchi
    Abstract: The slave trades out of Africa represent one of the most significant forced migration experiences in history. In this paper I illustrate their long-term consequences on contemporaneous socio-economic outcomes, drawing from my own previous work on the topic and from an extensive review of the available literature. I first consider the influence of the slave trade on the “sending” countries in Africa, with attention to their economic, institutional, demographic, and social implications. Next I evaluate the consequences of the slave trade on the “receiving” countries in the Americas. Here I distinguish between the case of Latin America and that of the United States. Overall, I show that the slave trades exert a lasting impact along several contemporaneous socio-economic dimensions and across diverse areas of the world.
    Keywords: slavery, development
    JEL: J15
    Date: 2016–11
  10. By: Peter L. Rousseau (Vanderbilt University); Paul Wachtel (New York University, Stern School of Business)
    Abstract: One strand of the economics literature addresses financial deepening as a precursor to economic growth. Another views it as a cause of financial crises. We examine historical data for 17 economies from 1870 to 1929 to distinguish episodes of growth induced by financial deepening from crises induced by credit booms. Cross-country panel regressions with five-year averages indicate that deepening episodes, defined as increases of more than thirty percent (and alternatively more than twenty percentage points) in the ratio of M2 to GDP over a ten year period, significantly enhanced the standard finance-growth dynamic, while deepening associated with financial crises sharply hindered it. We then describe some specific episodes of financial deepening in our sample.
    Keywords: finance-growth nexus, Atlantic economies, financial deepening, financial crisis
    JEL: E5 N1
    Date: 2017–06–16
  11. By: Boberg-Fazlic, Nina (University of Southern Denmark); Ivets, Maryna (University of Duisburg-Essen); Karlsson, Martin (University of Duisburg-Essen); Nilsson, Therese (Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of the 1918–19 influenza pandemic on fertility using a historical dataset from Sweden. Our results suggest an immediate reduction in fertility driven by morbidity, and additional behavioral effects driven by mortality. We find some evidence of community rebuilding and replacement fertility, but the net long-term effect is fertility reduction. In districts highly affected by the flu there is also an improvement in parental quality: we observe a relative increase in births to married women and better-off city dwellers. Our findings help understand the link between mortality and fertility, one of the central relations in demography, and show that several factors – including disruptions to marriage and labor markets – contribute to fertility reduction in the long term. Our results are consistent with studies that find a positive fertility response following natural disasters, but with high-quality historical data we show that this effect is short-lived.
    Keywords: 1918–19 influenza pandemic, influenza and pneumonia mortality, fertility, difference-in-differences
    JEL: I12 J11 J13
    Date: 2017–06
  12. By: Nils Herger (Study Center Gerzensee)
    Abstract: In the eighteenth century, a fierce political debate broke out in Sweden about the causes of an extraordinary depreciation of its currency. More specifically, the dete- riorating value of the Swedish daler was discretionarily blamed on monetary causes, e.g. the overissuing of banknotes, or nonmonetary causes, such as balance of payments deficits. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of this so-called "Swedish Bullionist Controversy". The results of vector autoregressions suggest that increasing amounts of paper money did give rise to in ation and a depreciation of the exchange rate. Conversely, nonmonetary factors were probably less important for these developments.
    Date: 2017–06
  13. By: Galor, Oded (Brown University); Klemp, Marc (Brown University)
    Abstract: Exploiting a novel geo-referenced data set of population diversity across ethnic groups, this research advances the hypothesis and empirically establishes that variation in population diversity across human societies, as determined in the course of the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, contributed to the differential formation of pre-colonial autocratic institutions within ethnic groups and the emergence of autocratic institutions across countries. Diversity has amplified the importance of institutions in mitigating the adverse effects of non-cohesiveness on productivity, while contributing to the scope for domination, leading to the formation of institutions of the autocratic type.
    Keywords: autocracy, economic growth, diversity, institutions, Out-of-Africa Hypothesis of Comparative Development
    JEL: O1 O43 Z10
    Date: 2017–06
  14. By: Charles J. Whalen
    Abstract: Since the death of Hyman Minsky in 1996, much has been written about financialization. This paper explores the issues that Minsky examined in the last decade of his life and considers their relationship to that financialization literature. Part I addresses Minsky's penetrating observations regarding what he called money manager capitalism. Part II outlines the powerful analytical framework that Minsky used to organize his thinking and that we can use to extend his work. Part III shows how Minsky's observations and framework represent a major contribution to the study of financialization. Part IV highlights two keys to Minsky's success: his treatment of economics as a grand adventure and his willingness to step beyond the world of theory. Part V concludes by providing a short recap, acknowledging formidable challenges facing scholars with a Minsky perspective, and calling attention to the glimmer of hope that offers a way forward.
    Keywords: Hyman Minsky; Money Manager Capitalism; Financialization
    JEL: B31 B52 G
    Date: 2017–06
  15. By: Colombatto, Enrico; Tavormina, Valerio
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the legitimacy of private property and analyses the process of first appropriation. In particular, we examine and comment the different views on the origin of private property rights that have emerged through the history of economic and legal thinking, from Democritus to de Jasay. These views have been grouped in two broad categories: consequentialism and fundamental principles. Although consequentialism is now dominant among economists and inchoate in the legal profession, we observe that it is in fact an alibi for discretionary policymaking by the authority. By definition, fundamentalist approaches generate rules that limit discretion. However, we show that some fundamental views rest on questionable a-priori statements. De Jasay’s argument based on the presumption of liberty is perhaps the only perspective that escapes this criticism.
    Keywords: Private property, Consequentialism, Natural rights, Appropriation, Intellectual property
    JEL: K11 B15 B25 B52
    Date: 2017–06
  16. By: Michael Baker; Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt
    Abstract: Mortality is a crucial dimension of wellbeing and inequality in a population, and mortality trends have been at the core of public debates in many Western countries. In this paper, we provide the first analysis of mortality inequality in Canada and compare its development to trends in the U.S. We find strong reductions in mortality rates across both genders and at all ages, with the exception of middle ages which only experienced moderate improvements. Inequality in mortality, measured across Canadian Census Divisions, decreased for infants and small children, while it increased slightly at higher ages. In comparison to the U.S., mortality levels in Canada improved at a similar rate despite lower initial levels. Inequality at younger ges, however, fell more strongly in the U.S., implying converging mortality gradients between the two countries.
    JEL: I14
    Date: 2017–06
  17. By: John Ikerd (IPC-IG)
    Abstract: "Historically, family farms held positions of respect and high esteem in the dominant cultures of North America and in much of the rest of the world. The first family farmers in North America were the indigenous peoples who had lived on the continent for centuries before the arrival of Europeans. Most depended primarily on hunting and gathering, but farming was common among many of the tribes of North America. These indigenous family farmers, like the early family farmers of Europe, usually included extended families. The families agreed on informal divisions of labour and divided the resulting production among kin groups within larger communities that farmed particular areas (Albritton 2012). An extended family might tend a specific land area, giving it some sense of ownership or rights; however, there was no real sense of private property. Most farming areas were considered 'common property' where all families could graze animals or farm cooperatively". (?)
    Keywords: Family farms, North America
    Date: 2016–12
  18. By: Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude (Dalhousie University); Khamis, Melanie (Wesleyan University); Yuksel, Mutlu (Dalhousie University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the persistent effects of historical labor market institutions and policies on women's long-term labor market outcomes. We quantify these enduring effects by exploring quasi-experimental variation in Germany's post-World War II mandatory reconstruction policy, which compelled women to work in the rubble removal and reconstruction process. Using difference-in-differences and instrumental variable approaches, we find that mandatory employment during the postwar era generated persistent adverse effects on women's long-term labor market outcomes. An increase in marriage and fertility rates in the postwar era and a physical and mental exhaustion associated with manual labor are some of the direct and indirect channels potentially explaining our results.
    Keywords: historical institutions, female labor supply, occupational choice
    JEL: J16 J24 N34
    Date: 2017–06
  19. By: Eric B. Schneider
    JEL: H83 I18
    Date: 2015–10–20
  20. By: Kyyrä, Tomi (VATT, Helsinki); Pesola, Hanna (VATT, Helsinki)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-term effects of extended unemployment benefits that older unemployed can collect until retirement in Finland. We consider a reform that increased the age threshold of this scheme from 55 to 57 for people born in 1950 or later. Our regression discontinuity estimates show that postponing eligibility by two years increased employment over the remaining working career by seven months. Despite the corresponding reduction in unemployment, we find no evidence of significant effects on mortality or receipt of disability and sickness benefits, nor on the spouse's labor supply. We also compute the fiscal impact of the reform taking into account income taxes and social security contributions paid and benefits received. The reform increased net income transfers by 15,000 Euros over the 10-year period for an average individual.
    Keywords: unemployment insurance, early retirement, layoffs
    JEL: J26 J63 J64 J65
    Date: 2017–06
  21. By: Tomáš Cvrcek (UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies); Miroslav Zajicek
    Abstract: The rise of mass schooling is an important contributor to modern economic growth. But its form, content, scale and manner of provision are all matters of public policy that are subject to politics. The rise of modern schooling is frequently cast as a product of broadened suffrage and stronger political voice of the masses, which overcame the political opposition from old ruling elites. We investigate this hypothesis, using the case of a school reform undertaken in Imperial Austria in 1869. We show that while landowners were less likely to vote for school modernization than urban and business interests, the strongest opposition came from the rural areas where the suffrage was in fact most numerous. The reform passed in spite of their opposition but, interestingly, post-reform developments suggest that passive resistance to it continued in the countryside in spite of the alleged benefits that education was billed to bring the masses.
    Keywords: mass schooling, political economy, Austria-Hungary
    Date: 2017–03
  22. By: Sarah Guillou (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: Le principe de la « loyauté dans la concurrence » est énoncé dans les principes généraux du Préambule du Traité des Communautés Européennes (TCE) de 1957 ainsi que l’engagement que les Etats mettront en œuvre les politiques pour assurer cette loyauté. La politique de la concurrence – assurée par la Direction de la concurrence – est la politique de référence en matière de régulation des marchés mais aussi de stratégies industrielles et assez récemment de régulation fiscale. Conséquence directe du projet du marché commun, la politique de la concurrence est incontournable en Europe et de nombreuses tentatives de politique industrielle se sont brisées sur l’autel des articles 81 à 89 du TCE (et à présent article 101 à 109 du Traité sur le Fonctionnement de l’Union européenne) qui instituent la concurrence en régime général. En pratique, les deux politiques sont clairement complémentaires dans l’Union européenne et l’espace accordé à la première se déploie grâce au régime d’exception de la seconde.
    Keywords: Europe; Industrie; Aides publiques; Contrôle de la concurrence; Marché commun; Politique industrielle
    Date: 2017–03

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