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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2017‒05‒14
28 papers chosen by |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen N; Guan, Hanhui; Li, David Daokui |
| Abstract: | Chinese GDP per capita fluctuated at a high level during the Northern Song and Ming dynasties before trending downwards during the Qing dynasty. China led the world in living standards during the Northern Song dynasty, but had fallen behind Italy by 1300. At this stage, it is possible that parts of China were still on a par with the richest parts of Europe, but by 1750 the gap was too large to be bridged by regional variation within China and the Great Divergence had already begun before the Industrial Revolution |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11972&r=his |
| By: | Broadberry, Stephen N; Wallis, John |
| Abstract: | Using annual data from the thirteenth century to the present, we show that improved long run economic performance has occurred primarily through a decline in the rate and frequency of shrinking, rather than through an increase in the rate of growing. Indeed, as economic performance has improved over time, the short run rate of growing has typically declined rather than increased. Most analysis of the process of economic development has hitherto focused on increasing the rate of growing. Here, we focus on understanding the forces making for a reduction in the rate of shrinking, drawing a distinction between proximate and ultimate factors. The main proximate factors considered are (1) structural change (2) technological change (3) demographic change and (4) the changing incidence of warfare. We conclude with a consideration of institutional change as the key ultimate factor behind the reduction in shrinking. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11973&r=his |
| By: | Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez (Banco de la República de Colombia); Sebastian Sanin-Restrepo (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | This study reports evidence of the existence of house price bubbles in several Canadian provinces around the recent global financial crisis. Using a wealth of monthly data for about a thirty-year period we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the bubble in Quebec transmitted to four other Canadian provinces. Using a recently developed migration test, we show evidence of time-varying transmission intensities. In all cases an inverted U-shape is encountered, suggesting that initially migrations gain strength and then decrease after a maximum point is reached. Interestingly, intensities increase significantly around the maximum point of the bubble in Quebec. Our results have important implications for the design of housing market policies. Classification JEL: G01; G12; C22. |
| Keywords: | Housing bubbles; Bubble transmission; Recursive right-tailed unit root tests; Canada. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:992&r=his |
| By: | Claude Diebolt (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France); Gabriele Franzmann (GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Cologne, Germany); Ralph Hippe (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate for Growth and Innovation, Human Capital and Employment Unit.); Jürgen Sensch (GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Cologne, Germany) |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:06-17&r=his |
| By: | Harrison, Mark (Centre on Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy, University of Warwick ; Centre for Russian, European, and Eurasian Studies, University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | In terms of economic development, Russia before and after the Soviet era was just an average economy. If the Soviet era is distinguished, it was not by economic growth or its contribution to human development, but by the use of the economy to build national power over many decades. In this respect, the Soviet economy was a success. It was also a tough and unequal environment in which to be born, live, and grow old. The Soviet focus on building national capabilities did improve opportunities for many citizens. Most important were the education of women and the increased survival of children. The Soviet economy was designed for the age of mass production and mass armies. That age has gone, but the idea of the Soviet economy lives on, fed by nostalgia and nationalism. |
| Keywords: | command economy ; communism, economic growth ; incentives ; power ; security ; Soviet Union ; war economy |
| JEL: | H1 N44 P20 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1137&r=his |
| By: | Iyigun, Murat (University of Colorado, Boulder); Rubin, Jared (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | Why do some societies fail to adopt more efficient institutions in response to changing economic conditions? And why do such conditions sometimes generate ideological backlashes and at other times lead to transformative sociopolitical movements? We propose an explanation that highlights the interplay – or lack thereof – between new technologies, ideologies, and institutions. When new technologies emerge, uncertainty results from a lack of understanding how the technology will fit with prevailing ideologies and institutions. This uncertainty discourages investment in institutions and the cultural capital necessary to take advantage of new technologies. Accordingly, increased uncertainty during times of rapid technological change may generate an ideological backlash that puts a higher premium on traditional values. We apply the theory to numerous historical episodes, including Ottoman reform initiatives, the Japanese Tokugawa reforms and Meiji Restoration, and the Tongzhi Restoration in Qing China. |
| Keywords: | ideology, institutions, conservatism, beliefs, uncertainty, institutional change, technological change |
| JEL: | D02 N40 N70 O33 O38 O43 Z10 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10703&r=his |
| By: | Bassino, Jean-Pascal; Broadberry, Stephen N; Fukao, Kyoji; Gupta, Bishnupriya; Takashima, Masanori |
| Abstract: | Japanese GDP per capita grew at an annual rate of 0.08 per cent between 730 and 1874, but the growth was episodic, with the increase in per capita income concentrated in two periods, 1450-1600 and after 1721, interspersed with periods of stable per capita income. There is a similarity here with the growth pattern of Britain. The first countries to achieve modern economic growth at opposite ends of Eurasia thus shared the experience of an early end to growth reversals. However, Japan started at a lower level than Britain and grew more slowly until the Meiji Restoration. |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11971&r=his |
| By: | Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores; Gómez Loscos, Ana; Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | We propose a set of new quantitative measures to characterise more fully the features of economic recoveries. We apply these measures to postwar US expansions and use cluster analysis to determine that there are two different types of recoveries in recent US economic history, with most expansions before 1984 (Great Moderation) looking quite different from those after. |
| Keywords: | Business Cycles; recoveries |
| JEL: | C22 E32 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11997&r=his |
| By: | Goel, Rajeev K. (Illinois State University); Saunoris, James W. (Eastern Michigan University); Schneider, Friedrich (University of Linz) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a long-term view by studying the effect of the underground or shadow economy on economic growth in the Unites States over the period 1870 to 2014. Shadow activities might spur or retard economic growth depending on their interactions with the formal sector and impacts on the provision of public goods. Nesting the analysis in a standard neo-classical growth model, we use a relatively new time-series technique to estimate the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship between economic growth and its determinants. Results suggest that prior to WWII the shadow economy had a negative effect on economic growth; however, post-WWII the shadow economy was beneficial for growth. This ambiguity regarding the overall growth impact of the shadow economy is consistent with underlying theoretical arguments. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, shadow economy, United States, time series |
| JEL: | E26 O43 O51 K42 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10705&r=his |
| By: | Iyer, S.; Shrivastava, A.; Ticku, R. |
| Abstract: | We construct a unique geocoded dataset on temples, dynasties and battles in medieval India and propose a test to identify the motive for observed temple desecrations in that period. We test two competing historical narratives of temple desecrations. The first focuses on the idea of iconoclasm, i.e. destruction of religious sites and imagery deemed heretical, as embedded in Islamic theology. The second suggests that desecrations were driven by political considerations and hence occurred mainly during military battles. We use a novel instrument of Muslim ruler assassinations to address the potential endogeneity in our battles related variable. The results show that Muslim states did not desecrate temples because they were there, but only during the course of battle, probably to diminish the authority of the rival Hindu state. The battle events are crucial, the probability of temple desecration increases by over 30% when the Hindu-Muslim battle outcome is in favour of a Muslim state. Whether a temple was within the territory of a Muslim state does not impact the likelihood of its desecration. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that political tactics were the main stimulus of temple desecrations by medieval Muslim states. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, religion, iconoclasm, politics, assassination |
| JEL: | D74 N35 N45 |
| Date: | 2017–01–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1705&r=his |
| By: | José Emilio Boscá; Rafael Doménech; Javier Ferri; José R García |
| Abstract: | En este artículo construimos una serie homogénea de vacantes para la economía española desde 1980 a 2016, lo que nos permite realizar un análisis de los efectos del ciclo económico sobre la relación entre desempleo y vacantes. |
| Keywords: | Análisis Macroeconómico , Documento de Trabajo , España |
| JEL: | E24 J6 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:17/12&r=his |
| By: | Mikołaj Szołtysek (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Radoslaw Poniat; Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Siegfried Gruber (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | There has been growing interest in the question of whether variation in family systems is a factor in the disparities in growth, development, and human capital formation. Studies by proponents of the field of New Institutional Economics have suggested that differences in family organisation could have considerable influence on regional developmental inequalities in today’s world, while a number of economic historians have argued that certain systems of marriage and household structure in the European past might have been more conducive than others to economic growth. Despite recent criticism of these ideas by Dennison and Ogilvie, who argued that the family has no exogenous effects on growth, the debate over this potential relationship continues. However, we believe that this discussion has been suffering from a lack of historical data that would give a fuller picture of the rich diversity of family settings, and from methodological shortcomings that have so far hindered the proper operationalisation of historical family systems and their potential effects on developmental outcomes. In this paper, we apply a recently developed multidimensional measure of historic familial organisation, the Patriarchy Index; and use spatially sensitive multivariate analyses to investigate its relationship with human capital levels, as approximated by numeracy across 115 populations of historic Europe. We find a strong negative association between the Patriarchy Index and regional numeracy patterns that remains significant even after controlling for a broad range of other important factors. Our observation that family-driven age- and gender-related inequalities, as captured by the index, are relevant for understanding variation in basic numeracy patterns in the past suggests that there are indeed important links between family organisation and human capital accumulation that merit further investigation. |
| Keywords: | Europe, economic and social development, historical demography, patriarchy, spatial analysis |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2017-012&r=his |
| By: | Simon Scott (OECD) |
| Abstract: | The grant element is the “gift portion” of a financial transaction. The mathematical technique for arriving at a precise grant element percentage was first proposed by John Pincus of the RAND Corporation in 1963, and developed mathematically by Göran Ohlin of the Development Centre in 1966. Pincus also advocated expressing foreign aid in terms of its grant equivalent – i.e. the grant element expressed as a monetary value instead of a percentage. Grant element methodology was first used officially in 1969, in a target for softening the terms of aid. A grant element test was then introduced into the definition of official development assistance in 1972. Grant element methodology was subsequently applied to regulate the terms of export credits, to help assess the sustainability of developing country borrowing, and to calculate the level of debt relief and ensure comparability of effort in relevant Paris Club debt rescheduling operations. Central to grant element calculations is the selection of an appropriate discount rate to reflect financial market conditions. The present low interest rate environment raises challenges in this respect. This paper offers a layman’s introduction to the nature and mechanics of grant element methodology, and to the history of its application in practice. |
| Keywords: | aid terms, export credits, foreign aid, grant equivalent, softness of loans |
| JEL: | B26 B31 C65 F34 F35 O22 |
| Date: | 2017–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaaa:339-en&r=his |
| By: | AndreaSalvatore Antonio Barbieri |
| Abstract: | (English) This work in progress is an attempt to reconstruct between social history and sociology of the birth of a specific social representation, that relating to eros and Parisian image of the seductive woman 'Parisian'. The work tries to combine the world of representation of sexuality (paragraph 1), prostitution and the birth of the gastronomy linked to loisir (leisure) (paragraph 2), the consumption of the body and at places garbage body that entertainment (paragraph 3), the image of the prostitute in the emerging popular literature (paragraph 4), the cinematography (paragraph 5). The whole scenario of this city that Walter Benjamin called the capital of the nineteenth century. (Italiano) Questo work in progress rappresenta un tentativo di ricostruzione, tra storia sociale e sociologia, della nascita di una specifica rappresentazione sociale, quella riguardante l’eros parigino e dell’immagine della seduttività della donna ‘parigina’. Il lavoro prova a coniugare il mondo della rappresentazione della sessualità (paragrafo 1), della prostituzione e della nascita della gastronomia legata al loisir (tempo libero) (paragrafo 2), del consumo del corpo sia nei luoghi della nettezza del corpo che dello svago (paragrafo 3), le immagini della prostituta nella nascente letteratura popolare (paragrafo 4), nella cinematografia (paragrafo 5). Il tutto nello scenario di quella città che Walter Benjamin definì la capitale del XIX secolo. |
| Keywords: | (English) Eroticism; Gastronomy; Leisure; Prostitution; Feminine identity (Italiano) Erotismo; Gastronomia; Loisir; Prostituzione; Identità femminile |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnz:wpaper:96:2017&r=his |
| By: | Oleg Badunenko (Portsmouth Business School); Daniel J. Henderson (University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa); Valentin Zelenyuk (University of Queensland); |
| Abstract: | This paper scrutinizes research on the productivity of nations with a particular focus on the preceding 50 years. First, we briefly synopsize ‘classic’ studies on economic growth and convergence of nations. The main criticism of these studies is that they did not account for potential inefficiency of countries. The production frontier literature attempts to deal with this issue and we give a brief introduction to it with a focus on data envelopment analysis. One central point of this review is the analysis of sources of productivity growth before and after 1990, a period of time, which appears to be a point of a structural change in growth patterns around the world. The second thread of this paper concerns the forces behind the transformation of the worldwide productivity distribution from a uni-modal to a bimodal distribution during the 1990s. Finally, we emphasize caveats and outline possible directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | Convergence, Bi-modality, Catching up, Data Envelopment Analysis, Efficiency, Economic Growth, Human capital, Income Distribution, Penn World Tables, Physical capital, Productivity, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Technology, TFP |
| JEL: | D24 C14 C43 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2017-05&r=his |
| By: | Hobbs, Kelsi (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); Link, Albert (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); Scott, John (Dartmouth College) |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes the extant literature on science and technology parks in an effort to provide a foundation to stimulate additional research in this globally important topic. We find from our review of published scholarship over the past 30 years that attention to science and technology parks has indeed increased, but it has not yet exploded. We also find that the current distribution of the country focus of this research is skewed toward China, the United Kingdom, Spain, and the United States. Emphasis on studies related to U.K. and U.S. parks has been primarily due to data availability; in China and Spain the emphasis has been primarily on case studies. |
| Keywords: | science park; technology park; clusters |
| JEL: | O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2017–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:uncgec:2017_005&r=his |
| By: | Abueg, Luisito |
| Abstract: | A mathematical-historical revisit of the controversy of GFA L'Hospital and J Bernoulli, and related developments in the history of calculus in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. This paper presents some of the indeterminate forms occurring in problems in mathematics and statistics relevant to economic analysis. |
| Keywords: | calculus, L’Hospital’s rules, mathematical history, mean value theorem, logarithmic mean, mathematical statistics, recreational mathematics |
| JEL: | C02 C65 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79011&r=his |
| By: | Plassard, Romain |
| Abstract: | Robert W. Clower’s article “A Reconsideration of the Microfoundations of Monetary Theory” (1967) deeply influenced the course of modern monetary economics. On the one hand, it questioned Don Patinkin’s (1956) project to integrate monetary and Walrasian value theory. On the other hand, it was the fountainhead of the cash-in-advance models à la Robert J. Lucas (1980), one of the most widely used approaches to monetary theory since the 1980s. Despite this influence, Clower’s (1967) project to integrate monetary and value theory remains an enigma. My paper intends to resolve it. This is a difficult task since Clower never completed the monetary theory outlined in his 1967 article. To overcome this difficulty, I characterize the intellectual context from which Clower’s (1967) contribution emerged and have recourse to a reconstruction of his project. This reconstruction is based on the analysis of published and unpublished materials, written by Clower before and after the 1967 article. It is argued that Clower (1967) sought to elaborate a disequilibrium monetary theory whilst retaining the two pillars of Patinkin’s integration, i.e., the introduction of money into utility functions and the real-balance effect. I trace the origins, account for the originality, and discuss the challenges of this project. |
| Keywords: | integration of monetary and value theory, microfoundations of macroeconomics, disequilibrium, Clower, Patinkin. |
| JEL: | B21 D46 D5 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:78917&r=his |
| By: | Claude Diebolt (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France); Michael Haupert (University of Wisconsin-La Crosse) |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:05-17&r=his |
| By: | Tirado, Daniel A.; Sanchís Llopis, M. Teresa; Martínez-Galarraga, Julio; Díez Minguela, Alfonso |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on South-West Europe, an area comprising France, Italy, Spain and Portugal, to evaluate inequality in regional income between 1870 and 1950. To do this, information on a decadal basis on regional population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 171 regions (84 French départements, 22 Italian regioni, 18 Portuguese distritos and 49 Spanish provincias) has been collected. Regional inequalities increased between 1870 and 1910 but subsequently tended to flatten out through until 1950. In the first period, regional disparities increased mainly driven by a handful of French and Spanish regions in northern France, such as the Paris basin, Catalonia, the Basque-Country and northern Italy. In the second period, inequality flattened out, driven by the incorporation of new regions on the path of modern economic growth. The study also shows the evolution towards a bimodal, polarized pattern of regional income distribution in 1910-1950 with two convergence clubs. The richest regions were clustering in northern France, the Paris basin and the north of Italy. Meanwhile, most of southern Italy and the vast majority of the Spanish and Portuguese regions already occupied the bottom positions in the income distribution ranking. This point to the emergence of the core-periphery pattern that characterizes much of South-West Europe today. |
| Keywords: | Portugal; Italy; Spain; France; Regional inequality; Economic History |
| JEL: | R11 O18 N94 N93 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:24544&r=his |
| By: | Yang Hu (University of Waikato); Les Oxley (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | The Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble are the two most famous and earliest episodes in the history of speculation, which can be dated back to the eighteenth century. Unlike most studies focus on some recent financial bubble footprints, we pay special attention to the most remarkable events in 1720. We empirically test for evidence of exuberance in historical stock prices of the Mississippi Company and the South Sea Company during the well-documented Mississippi Bubble and South Sea Bubble episodes, respectively. The right-tailed unit root test of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015, PSY) is utilised in this paper. In addition, contagion in these historical markets is also considered. |
| Keywords: | exuberance; generalized sup ADF test; South Sea Bubble; Mississippi Bubble |
| JEL: | C12 N2 |
| Date: | 2017–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:17/08&r=his |
| By: | David S. Jacks (Simon Fraser University); Krishna Pendakur (Simon Fraser University); Hitoshi Shigeoka (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting a newly constructed dataset on county-level variation in prohibition status from 1933 to 1939, this paper asks two questions: what were the effects of the repeal of federal prohibition on infant mortality? And were there any significant externalities from the individual policy choices of counties and states on their neighbors? We find that dry counties with at least one wet neighbor saw baseline infant mortality increase by roughly 3% while wet counties themselves saw baseline infant mortality increase by roughly 2%. Cumulating across the six years from 1934 to 1939, our results indicate an excess of 13,665 infant deaths that could be attributable to the repeal of federal prohibition in 1933. |
| Keywords: | federal prohibition, infant mortality, policy externalities |
| JEL: | H73 I18 J10 N30 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2017-036&r=his |
| By: | Léo MALHERBE |
| Abstract: | Firstable we shall present the contemporary genesis of endogenous money concept. In doing so we will show that endogenous money theory arised within the post-keynesian school of thought by simultaneously accepting some key points and spotlighting some weaknesses of the Keynesian theory. Thereafter, endogenous money had been a very controversial issue among post-keynesian litterature. We shall look back at the two major controversies that took place : at first between horizontalists and structuralists, then between the evolutionary and the revolutionary view on endogenous money.\r\nWe will see that despite the existence of numerous internal debates, post-keynesian’s endogenous money theory entails some conceptual and methodological limits. That’s why we shall intend to clarify this concept by including some heterodox theoretical inputs such as those made by French institutionalists and the regulation school for instance.\r\nIn that way, we will propose in the last part of this paper what we called an under-determined endogenous money theory, aimed at achieving an heterodox synthesis on this topic. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous money, Monetary creation, Bank loans, Post-Keynesian theory, Instituionalism, Regulation school |
| JEL: | E12 E42 E58 B25 B41 B5 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2017-08&r=his |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Shafiullah, Muhammad; Papavassiliou, Vassilios; Hammoudeh, Shawkat |
| Abstract: | Using a two-century long dataset and some recently popularized nonparametric econometric techniques, this study revisits the nexus between economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the G7 countries over nearly two centuries. The use of nonparametric modelling is warranted by the fact that long historical time series are often subject to structural breaks and other forms of nonlinearity over the course of time. We employ nonparametric cointegration and causality tests along with the cross-validated Local Linear technique analysis and validate the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve in six of the G7 countries – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, U.K. and the U.S.– and the only exception is Japan. Our empirical analysis also finds CO2 emissions and economic growth to be cointegrated and closely interrelated in the Granger sense. Our results are robust and highlight the nonlinear causal relationship between the two variables. |
| Keywords: | G7 Countries, Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions, EKC Hypothesis, Nonparametric Econometrics. |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2017–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79019&r=his |
| By: | Antonio Torrero Mañas |
| Abstract: | Este año se cumple una década desde el inicio de la crisis financiera actual. Seguimos tratando de comprender las causas de la perturbación y sus consecuencias. En ese proceso han vuelto a considerarse útiles las aportaciones de Keynes, en especial sus observaciones no incluidas en la síntesis neoclásica. En este trabajo el Profesor Torrero revisa la vigencia de esas ideas en relación con la crisis financiera. Concede especial importancia a que en las décadas anteriores a la crisis tuvo lugar un progresivo deslizamiento tratando como riesgo medible situaciones de incertidumbre. Las ideas de Keynes al respecto pueden inspirar la reflexión propia para ayudar a comprender una crisis extraordinariamente importante. |
| Keywords: | John M. Keynes, crisis financiera, riesgo, incertidumbre, instituciones financieras y regulación |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uae:wpaper:0217&r=his |
| By: | Ai Hisano (Harvard Business School, General Management Unit) |
| Abstract: | This working paper examines the remarkable growth of wine consumption in the United States since the 1960s. The country is now the largest wine consumer in the world, exceeding the wine-producing European countries such as France and Italy, which had long dominated world markets. The paper identifies the late 1960s and 1970s as the major turning point by analyzing the role of businesses in reinventing the image of wine from a cheap and very alcoholic beverage to a sophisticated natural product, and a fine accompaniment for gourmet food. By creating wine as a symbol of social status, the reimagined wine industry became a reinforcer of social and class divisions in the United States. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:17-099&r=his |
| By: | Swisher IV, S. N. |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the seminal work of Robert Fogel on U.S. railroads, I reformulate Fogel’s original counter- factual history question on 19th century U.S. economic growth without railroads by treating the transport network as an endogenous equilibrium object. I quantify the effect of the railroad on U.S. growth from its introduction in 1830 to 1861. Specifically, I estimate the output loss in a counterfactual world with- out the technology to build railroads, but retaining the ability to construct the next-best alternative of canals. My main contribution is to endogenize the counterfactual canal network through a decentralized network formation game played by profit-maximizing transport firms. I perform a similar exercise in a world without canals. My counterfactual differs from Fogel’s in three main ways: I develop a structural model of transport link costs that takes heterogeneity in geography into account to determine the cost of unobserved links, the output distribution is determined in the model as a function of transport costs, and the transport network is endogenized as a stable result of a particular network formation game. I find that railroads and canals are strategic complements, not strategic substitutes. Therefore, the output loss can be quite acute when one or the other is missing from the economy. In the set of Nash stable networks, relative to the factual world, the median value of output is 45% lower in the canals only counterfactual and 49% lower in the railroads only counterfactual. With only one of the transportation technologies available, inequality in output across cities would have been lower in variance terms but sharply higher in terms of the maximum-minimum gap. Such a stark output loss is due to two main mechanisms: inefficiency of the decentralized equilibrium due to network externalities and complementarities due to spatial heterogeneity in costs across the two transport modes. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, transport infrastructure, network formation games, strategic comple- ments, railroads, counterfactual history, multiple equilibria, computation, simulation |
| JEL: | E22 O11 N71 L92 R42 |
| Date: | 2017–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1718&r=his |
| By: | Mickaël Benaim (Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, MIOIR, University of Manchester, UK); Faustine Perrin (Department of Economic History, Lund University, Sweden) |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:04-17&r=his |