nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2017‒04‒02
28 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Russian Industrial Statistics By Suhara, Manabu
  2. The Relationship between Psychology and Economics: Insights from the History of Economic Thought By Drakopoulos, Stavros A.; Katselidis, Ioannis
  3. Capital-Skill Complementarity and the Emergence of Labor Emancipation By Quamrul H. Ashraf; Francesco Cinnirella; Oded Galor; Boris Gershman; Erik Hornung
  4. Le ferriere genovesi in età preindustriale: aspetti tecnici, innovazioni e declino [Genoese ironworks in preindustrial age: techniques, innovations and decline] By Ghiglione Giovanni
  5. The Origins and Long-Run Consequences of the Division of Labor By Emilio Depetris-Chauvin; Ömer Özak
  6. Migrants and the Making of America: The Short and Long Run Effects of Immigration during the Age of Mass Migration By Nunn, Nathan; Qian, Nancy; Sequeira, Sandra
  7. U.S. and Soviet foreign aid during the Cold War: A case study of Ethiopia By Broich, Tobias
  8. Skill Premium and Technological Change in the Very Long Run: 1300-1914 By Rui Luo
  9. La mortalidad de la Guerra de los Mil Días, 1899-1902* By Adolfo Meisel Roca; Julio E. Romero Prieto
  10. A Brief History of Human Time. Exploring a database of " notable people " By Olivier Gergaud; Morgane Laouenan; Etienne Wasmer
  11. Asymmetric influence of distance on french international trade 1850-1913 By Stephane Becuwe; Bertrand Blancheton; Leo Charles; Matthieu Clement
  12. Geographical Origins and Economic Consequences of Language Structures By Sarid, Assaf; Galor, Oded; Ozak, Omer
  13. International Evidence on Long-Run Money Demand By Benati, Luca; Lucas, Robert E.; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Weber, Warren E.
  14. Novelty, Knowledge Spillovers and Innovation: Evidence from Nobel Laureates By Ham, John C.; Weinberg, Bruce A.
  15. Growth without scale effects due to entropy By Tiago Neves Sequeira; Pedro Mazeda Gil; Óscar Afonso
  16. Decentralized Despotism? Indirect Colonial Rule Undermines Contemporary Democratic Attitudes By Lechler, Marie; McNamee, Lachlan
  17. Leveraged Buyouts : A Survey of the Literature By Renneboog, Luc; Vansteenkiste, Cara
  18. Allocating labourers to occupational (sub-)sectors using regression techniques By Sebastian A.J. Keibek
  19. Rise and Fall in the Third Reich: Social Mobility and Nazi Membership By Matthias Blum; Alan de Bromhead
  20. Preaching Democracy By Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck; Jensen, Peter Sandholt
  21. On the mobilization of domestic resources in oil countries: The role of historical factors By Luc Désiré Omgba
  22. Negative Shocks and Mass Persecutions: Evidence from the Black Death By Jebwab, Remi; Johnson, Noel D; Koyama, Mark
  23. L'économie, rhétorique moderne By François Facchini
  24. War, Migration and the Origins of the Thai Sex Industry By Abel Brodeur; Warn N. Lekfuangfu; Yanos Zylberberg
  25. Metamorphoses of Value.The Concept of a Commodity in Marx’s Capital. By Andrea Ricci
  26. Post-conflict peacebuilding: A critical survey of the literature and avenues for future research By Adedokun, Ayokunu
  27. Thomas Sargent face à Robert Lucas : une autre ambition pour la Nouvelle Economie Classique By Aurélien Goutsmedt
  28. Based on the evidence from probate inventories, by-employments have generally been presumed ubiquitous amongst early modern Englishmen. This would appear to present a significant problem for estimates of the contemporary male occupational structure, since the sources on which these estimates are based describe men almost always by their principal employment only. This paper argues that this problem is vanishingly small, for three reasons. Firstly, the probate inventory evidence is shown to exaggerate the incidence of by-employments by a factor of two, as a consequence of its inherent wealth bias. Secondly, it is demonstrated that even after wealth-bias correction, the probate record greatly overstates by-employment incidence as most of the traces of subsidiary activities in the inventories actually point to the employments of other members of the household, not to by-employments of the inventoried male household head. Thirdly, even if one ignored this and assumed that they did, in fact, point to his by-employments, they are shown to have been relatively small in economic importance compared to the principal employment, and to necessitate only a very minor adjustment of the principal-employment-only male occupational structure. By Sebastian A.J. Keibek

  1. By: Suhara, Manabu
    Abstract: Historical Russian statistics on industry are discussed in this paper. Russia attained impressive economic development in the century from the emancipation of Russian serfs to around 1960, although growth was interrupted by the October Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II. The mainspring of Russia’s advancement was industrial growth. The mainly agrarian economy, in which the rural population accounted for about 80% of the total at the end of the 19th century, underwent a complete change in economic structure. This Russian success, however, came to an end at the end of the 1950s and beginning of the 1960s. The mining and manufacturing industries, which until then had led the economy, lost vigor, and the industrial economy as a whole withered. This deterioration led to the collapse of the Soviet Union by the end of the 20th century and the start of systemic transformation to capitalism. In this paper we look back at the history of Russia from the viewpoint of industrial statistics. In the first section, we adopt a general view of industrial statistics in Russia under the Tsarist regime. Some estimates of production indices for the industry of the Russian Empire are presented and compared. Then in the second section, production, labor, and capital statistics for Russian industry in the Soviet era are discussed, followed by the third section, in which changes in industrial statistics for Russia’s new era are summarized.
    Date: 2017–03
  2. By: Drakopoulos, Stavros A.; Katselidis, Ioannis
    Abstract: Psychological ideas had always played a role on the formation of economic thought as can be seen in the works of many influential pre-classical and classical authors. Up to the beginning of the 20th century, there was almost no methodological objection regarding the incorporation of ideas from psychology into economic theories. After this period, a fundamental shift in mainstream economics took place which is also known as the Paretian turn. This conceptual change, initiated mainly by Vilfredo Pareto and completed with the emergence of the theories of choice in the first decades of the 20th century, attempted to expel all psychological notions from economic theory. However, in the last three decades, the increasing appeal of subjective well-being research and especially of the new behavioral economics, re-brought the topic onto the surface. In order to better comprehend and to contribute to the recent discussion concerning the relationship between the two disciplines, the study of relevant views found in history of economic thought is necessary. The paper starts with a brief sketch of the history of the relationship between economics and psychology, focusing also to the recent literature which points to a reconsideration of this relationship. After an examination of psychological ideas found in influential pre-marginalist writers, the paper discusses the arguments supporting the case for the interaction between the two fields. It also suggests that the work of Richard Jennings can be seen as the peak of the early interaction between economics and psychology. Finally, it considers the relevance of these arguments for the current debate concerning the relationship between economics and psychology.
    Keywords: History of Economic Thought, Economics and Psychology, Economic Methodology; Relation of Economics to other Disciplines
    JEL: A12 B00 B40
    Date: 2017–03
  3. By: Quamrul H. Ashraf (Williams College); Francesco Cinnirella (Ifo Institute); Oded Galor (Brown University); Boris Gershman (American University); Erik Hornung (University of Bayreuth)
    Abstract: This paper advances a novel hypothesis regarding the historical roots of labor emancipation. It argues that the decline of coercive labor institutions in the industrial phase of development has been an inevitable by-product of the intensification of capital-skill complementarity in the production process. In light of the growing significance of skilled labor for fostering the return to physical capital, elites in society were induced to relinquish their historically profitable coercion of labor in favor of employing free skilled workers, thereby incentivizing the masses to engage in broad-based human capital acquisition, without fear of losing their skill premium to expropriation. In line with the proposed hypothesis, exploiting a plausibly exogenous source of variation in early industrialization across regions of nineteenth-century Prussia, capital abundance is shown to have contributed to the subsequent intensity of de facto serf emancipation.
    Keywords: Labor coercion, serfdom, emancipation, industrialization, physical capital accumulation, capital-skill complementarity, demand for human capital, nineteenth-century Prussia
    JEL: J24 J47 N13 N33 O14 O15 O43
    Date: 2017–03
  4. By: Ghiglione Giovanni (National Research Council of Italy Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth c/o Dip. Storia Moderna e Contemp. - Università di Genova)
    Abstract: These pages take up very briefly, the results of a series of research on "The steel industry of the Ligurian ancient regime (sec. XV-XIX): technical, settlement, language", one of the first activities developed by the Centre for Study of History Technology (CSST) of CNR of Genoa, since the early seventies. The study on the local production of iron in the pre-industrial age, has identified a number of production sites in particular settled Ligurian Apennines, the detecting method of reduction of iron ore - direct method of low fire - and technical innovations adopted in the production process, from bellows to idroeholic machine, the change in the composition of the charge: iron ore, scrap iron in different percentages and fluxes. They did not miss, in the course of research, comparisons with other steel settlements that used the same method of the low fire, particularly the ironworks Catalan and also references to other production sites that operated differently, with the indirect method or blast furnace, just in the neighboring Tuscan area. Research has achieved a sufficiently clear activity practiced by the genoese steel industry ironworks of old regime, considering all the technical-scientific difficulties accompanying historical aspects.Therefore, this paper highlights some moments, especially economic and technical, of a very broad research and aims to point out some possible interpretations that have emerged during that long period of investigation. However, the interpretation of the low fire Genoese as technical back, compared to the blast furnace "at the Brescian way" and that has been given by researchers from the CSST - while trying appreciation historic - a recent article that we point out in the course of these pages, provides useful information for the genoese technical not considering it outdated compared to contemporary blast furnace "at the Brescian way"; in fact, the Genoese being linked to the elbano mineral could not operate differently, demonstrating among other things, most suitable technique. Therefore, suggestions and criticisms in the historical re-reading of one of the oldest and main activity are welcomed, and all that requires further study, in view of the fact that the old genoese ironworks also lost the memory, in favor of more recent term "Catalan".Finally, to investigate historical technique of ancient genoese ironworks we also give here a small push to observe and investigate historically the subsequent to the current complex technical steel works (when it was possible to give more toughness to the steel using the alloys) in consideration that the steel industry and metallurgy, despite the increasing scientific knowledge of metal properties, is still today an essentially empirical activity in which the production of new alloys stimulates the search and, substantially, takes place proceeding by trial and error.
    Keywords: techniques, history of iron metallurgy, production sites in Ligurian Appennines, preindustrial manufacture.
    JEL: L61 N63 N93
    Date: 2016–06
  5. By: Emilio Depetris-Chauvin; Ömer Özak
    Abstract: This research explores the historical roots and persistent effects of the division of labor in premodern societies. Exploiting a novel ethnic-level dataset, which combines geocoded ethnographic, linguistic and genetic data, it advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that population diversity had a positive effect on the division of labor, which translated into persistent differences in economic development. Specifically, it establishes that pre-modern economic specialization was conducive to pre-modern statehood, urbanization and social hierarchy. Moreover, it demonstrates that higher levels of pre-modern economic specialization are associated with greater skill-biased occupational heterogeneity, economic complexity and economic development in the contemporary era.
    JEL: O10 O40 O43 O44 Z10 Z13
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Nunn, Nathan; Qian, Nancy; Sequeira, Sandra
    Abstract: We study the effects of European immigration to the United States during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1920) on economic prosperity today. We exploit variation in the extent of immigration across counties arising from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and the gradual expansion of the railway network across the United States. We find that locations with more historical immigration today have higher incomes, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment. The long-run effects appear to arise from the persistence of sizeable short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.
    Keywords: economic development; historical persistence; Immigration
    JEL: B52 F22 N72 O10 O40
    Date: 2017–03
  7. By: Broich, Tobias (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)
    Abstract: This study provides a historical perspective of Ethiopia's position in the international aid game at the Horn of Africa during the Cold War era (1945-1991). The main conclusions of this study are threefold. First, the countries of Ethiopia and Somalia became classic examples of pawns in Cold War politics. The two superpowers, the United States of America (USA) and the Soviet Union, switched sides to support countries to which they had been previously furnishing assistance at the apex of the Cold War. Second, recipient governments are able to use international development assistance as a tool to implement as much of their policy agenda as possible. Both the Imperial Government of Ethiopia (1941-1974) and the Ethiopian communist government (1974-1990) aimed at maximising external financial resources while minimising the amount of loss of sovereignty over the policy agenda. Third, the 1984-86 famine in the Horn of Africa region convincingly highlights the moral dilemma that the international donor community faced when assisting non-democratic recipient states. Ethiopia's history has provided two valuable lessons for the successive Ethiopian Government during the post-Cold War era: (i) the extent to which a lack of economic development and widespread death caused by famine contributed to the demise of both Ethiopian governments during the Cold War era; (ii) the extent to which large financial and military dependence of both the imperial government and the communist government on one major ally (USA and Soviet Union, respectively) during the Cold War played a decisive part in the overthrow of both governments.
    Keywords: Ethiopia, Foreign Aid, United States, Soviet Union, Cold War
    JEL: F35 F50 N47 O55
    Date: 2017–02–15
  8. By: Rui Luo
    Abstract: This paper sets out to explain the historical development of the skill premium in western Europe over a period ranging from the pre-modern era to the modern era (circa 1300 to 1914). We develop a model of the skill premium and technological change over the very long run which endogenously accounts for the transition across different growth regimes in this period. The model integrates two key elements in long-run growth, the human capital investment and the capital-human capital ratio, into the analysis and successfully explains the declining skill premium from 1300 to 1600 and the stable skill premium from 1600 to 1914. The explanation elucidates a number of well-known historical facts that have not been previously examined in the study of the skill premium.
    Keywords: skill premium; technological change; human capital investment; capital-human capital ratio; growth regimes
    JEL: J31 O41 O11
    Date: 2017–03
  9. By: Adolfo Meisel Roca (Banco de la República); Julio E. Romero Prieto (Banco de la República)
    Abstract: La Guerra de los Mil Días fue la más letal y costosa guerra civil de Colombia. Hay cierto consenso sobre las consecuencias materiales, pero menos atención ha recibido la pérdida de vidas humanas. Aunque muchos historiadores repiten la cifra de 100.000 víctimas, no está respaldada por un análisis formal. Dado que la población apenas superaba los 4 millones, es una cantidad elevada que amerita una revisión cuidadosa. Utilizando los censos colombianos y los registros del Human Mortality Database, este documento estima el patrón de edad de la mortalidad y evalúa el aumento que estaría relacionado con la guerra. Observando la experiencia de otros países, los modelos ayudan a estimar un valor máximo posible de pérdidas humanas. Si la mortalidad colombiana hubiera aumentado tanto como en Francia durante la Primera Guerra Mundial, el número de víctimas no superaría los 100.000. En un caso mucho menos extremo, si hubiera aumentado tanto como en Inglaterra y Gales durante la Primera Guerra Mundial, el número de muertos sería de 38.724. ******ABSTRACT: The War of the Thousand Days was the most deadly and costly civil war in Colombian history. There is some consensus about the material consequences, but less attention has been paid to human losses. Although the figure of 100,000 casualties is repeated, no support has been provided by formal analysis. Since the population barely exceeded 4 million, it is a high figure deserving a careful reexamination. Using Colombian censuses and the Human Mortality Database, this paper estimates the age-pattern of mortality and assesses the increase that would be related to war. Observing the experience of other countries, models help to estimate maximum possible human losses. If the Colombian mortality had increased as much as in France during World War I, the number of casualties would not exceed the 100,000. In a far less extreme case, if the it had increased as much as in England and Wales during WWI, the death toll would be as high as 38,724.
    Keywords: Historia de Colombia; censos de Colombia; estimación demográfica, modelos de mortalidad. Classification JEL:N46, J10.
    Date: 2017–03
  10. By: Olivier Gergaud (KEDGE Business School [Talence] - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Morgane Laouenan (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Etienne Wasmer (ECON - Département d'économie - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: This paper describes a database of 1,243,776 notable people and 7,184,575 locations (Geolinks) associated with them throughout human history (3000BCE-2015AD). We first describe in details the various approaches and procedures adopted to extract the relevant information from their Wikipedia biographies and then analyze the database. Ten main facts emerge. 1. There has been an exponential growth over time of the database, with more than 60% of notable people still living in 2015, with the exception of a relative decline of the cohort born in the XVIIth century and a local minimum between 1645 and 1655. 2. The average lifespan has increased by 20 years, from 60 to 80 years, between the cohort born in 1400AD and the one born in 1900AD. 3. The share of women in the database follows a U-shape pattern, with a minimum in the XVIIth century and a maximum at 25% for the most recent cohorts. 4. The fraction of notable people in governance occupations has decreased while the fraction in occupations such as arts, literature/media and sports has increased over the centuries; sports caught up to arts and literature for cohorts born in 1870 but remained at the same level until the 1950s cohorts; and eventually sports came to dominate the database after 1950. 5. The top 10 visible people born before 1890 are all non-American and have 10 different nationalities. Six out of the top 10 born after 1890 are instead U.S. born citizens. Since 1800, the share of people from Europe and the U.S. in the database declines, the number of people from Asia and the Southern Hemisphere grows to reach 20% of the database in 2000. Coïncidentally, in 1637, the exact barycenter of the base was in the small village of Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises (Champagne Region in France), where Charles de Gaulle lived and passed away. Since the 1970s, the barycenter oscillates between Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. 6. The average distance between places of birth and death follows a U-shape pattern: the median distance was 316km before 500AD, 100km between 500 and 1500AD, and has risen continuously since then. The greatest mobility occurs between the age of 15 and 25. 7. Individuals with the highest levels of visibility tend to be more distant from their birth place, with a median distance of 785km for the top percentile as compared to 389km for the top decile and 176km overall. 8. In all occupations, there has been a rise in international mobility since 1960. The fraction of locations in a country different from the place of birth went from 15% in 1955 to 35% after 2000. 9. There is no positive association between the size of cities and the visibility of people measured at the end of their life. If anything, the correlation is negative. 10. Last and not least, we find a positive correlation between the contemporaneous number of entrepreneurs and the urban growth of the city in which they are located the following decades; more strikingly, the same is also true with the contemporaneous number or share of artists, positively affecting next decades city growth; instead, we find a zero or negative correlation between the contemporaneous share of “militaries, politicians and religious people” and urban growth in the following decades.
    Keywords: Big Data,notable people
    Date: 2017–01–19
  11. By: Stephane Becuwe; Bertrand Blancheton; Leo Charles; Matthieu Clement
    Abstract: This article uses a new database to test the influence of distance on French international trade during the first globalization to test the influence of distance on French international trade during the first globalization Using a gravity model methodology, we study exports and imports separately to better underline opposing trends in the two flows. As expected, distance has a globally negative impact on trade. For imports the negative impact decreases over time, however for exports the negative impact strengthens. If French imports fit well with the literature on transaction costs, developments in exports tell a different story. Despite a fall in transaction costs France had some difficulty in exporting to distant emerging countries at the end of the nineteenth century. These results suggest a bad geographical diversification of exports.
    Keywords: France, Trade issues, Growth
    Date: 2015–07–01
  12. By: Sarid, Assaf; Galor, Oded; Ozak, Omer
    Abstract: This research explores the economic causes and consequences of language structures. It advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that variations in pre-industrial geographical characteristics that were conducive to higher returns to agricultural investment, gender gaps in agricultural productivity, and the emergence of hierarchical societies, are at the root of existing cross-language variations in the structure of the future tense and the presence of grammatical gender and politeness distinctions. Moreover, the research suggests that while language structures have largely reflected past human experience and ancestral cultural traits, they have independently affected human behavior and economic outcomes.
    Keywords: Comparative development; Cultural Evolution; education; Future Tense; Grammatical Gender; Human Capital; Language Structure; Politeness Distinctions
    JEL: D01 D03 J16 Z10 Z13
    Date: 2017–03
  13. By: Benati, Luca (University of Bern); Lucas, Robert E. (University of Chicago); Nicolini, Juan Pablo (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Weber, Warren E. (University of South Carolina)
    Abstract: We explore the long-run demand for M1 based on a data set that has comprised 32 countries since 1851. In many cases, cointegration tests identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between either velocity and the short rate or M1, GDP, and the short rate. Evidence is especially strong for the United States and the United Kingdom over the entire period since World War I and for moderate and high-inflation countries. With the exception of high-inflation countries–for which a “log-log” specification is preferred–the data often prefer the specification in the levels of velocity and the short rate originally estimated by Selden (1956) and Latané (1960). This is especially clear for the United States and other low-inflation countries.
    Keywords: Long-run money demand; Cointegration
    JEL: C32 E41
    Date: 2017–02–10
  14. By: Ham, John C.; Weinberg, Bruce A.
    Abstract: Using a new identification strategy and unique, rich data on Nobel laureates, we show that being in new or multiple locations, as measures of exposure to novel combinations of ideas, and the number of other local important innovators, all increase the probability that eventual Nobel laureates begin their Nobel prize winning work. Strikingly, and consistent with our identifying assumptions, we find that none of these measures increase the probability of doing Nobel prize winning work. Our results strongly suggest that spillovers affect the generation of ideas, and help us understand the weak spillover effects previously estimated in the economics literature.
    Keywords: Knowledge spillovers,Innovation,Nobel Prize,Duration models
    Date: 2017
  15. By: Tiago Neves Sequeira (Univ. Beira Interior and CEFAGE-UBI); Pedro Mazeda Gil (University of Porto, Faculty of Economics, and CEF.UP); Óscar Afonso (University of Porto, Faculty of Economics)
    Abstract: We eliminate scale effects in the Balanced Growth Path of an expanding-variety endogenous growth model using the concept of entropy as a complexity effect. This allows us to gradually diminish scaleeffects as the economy develops along the transitional dynamics, which conciliates evidence of the existence of scale effects long ago in history with evidence for no scale effects in today’s economies. We show that empirical evidence supports entropy as a stylized form of the complexity effect. Then we show that the model can replicate well the take-off after the industrial revolution. Finally, we show that a model with both network effects (as spillovers in R&D) and entropy (as complexity effects) can replicate the main facts of the very long-run evolution of the economy since A.D. 1. Future scenarios may help to explain (part of) the growth crises affecting the current generation.
    Keywords: Endogenous economic growth; Network effects; Complexity effects; Entropy.
    JEL: O10 O30 O40 E22
    Date: 2016
  16. By: Lechler, Marie; McNamee, Lachlan
    Abstract: This paper identifies indirect and direct colonial rule as causal factors in shaping support for democracy by exploiting a within-country natural experiment in Namibia. Throughout the colonial era, northern Namibia was indirectly ruled through a system of appointed indigenous traditional elites whereas colonial authorities directly ruled southern Namibia. This variation originally stems from where the progressive extension of direct German control was stopped after a rinderpest epidemic in the 1890s, and thus constitutes plausibly exogenous within-country variation in the form of colonial rule. Using this spatial discontinuity, we find that individuals in indirectly ruled areas are less likely to support democracy and turnout at elections. We explore potential mechanisms and find suggestive evidence that the greater influence of traditional leaders in indirectly ruled areas has socialized individuals to accept non-electoral bases of political authority.
    Keywords: Indirect Colonial Rule; Decentralized Despotism; Political Attitudes; Namibia; Democratic Institutions; Spatial RDD
    JEL: F54 N27 N47 P16
    Date: 2017–03–08
  17. By: Renneboog, Luc (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Vansteenkiste, Cara (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)
    Abstract: This paper provides an exhaustive literature review of the motives for public-to-private LBO transactions. First, the paper develops the theoretical framework for the potential sources of value creation from going private: a distinction is made between the reduction in agency costs, stakeholder wealth transfers, tax benefits, transaction costs savings, takeover defense strategies, and corporate undervaluation. The paper then reviews and summarizes whether and how these theories have been empirically verified in the four different strands of literature in LBO research. These strands of literature are categorized by phase in the LBO transaction: Intent (of a buyout), Impact (of the LBO on the various stakeholders), Process (of restructuring after the leveraged buyout) and Duration (of retaining the private status). Then, the paper shows that in the first half of the 2000s, a public-to-private LBO wave re-emerged in the US, UK and Continental Europe, whose value vastly exceeded that of the 1980s US LBO wave. Finally, the paper provides suggestions for further research.
    Keywords: publit-to-private transactions; going-private deals; private equitiy; management buyout; leveraged buyout; management buy-in; MBO; LBO; reverse LBO
    JEL: G3 G32 G34 G38
    Date: 2017
  18. By: Sebastian A.J. Keibek (The Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure)
    Abstract: British historical sources on occupational information such as censuses, parish registers, and probate records describe many men with the unhelpfully vague term of ‘labourer’. This paper introduces a new method to allocate these labourers to occupational (sub-)sectors, a prerequisite for creating comprehensive and accurate historical occupational structures. The new method leads to a significant correction on the allocation shares used in the national accounts literature. Its results at national level are largely in agreement with another new approach, developed by Osamu Saito and Leigh Shaw-Taylor. But it has an important advantage over that approach: it is capable of allocating labourers at all geographic levels, and can thus generate local and regional occupational estimates, rather than only national ones.
    Keywords: labourers, occupational structure, regression techniques, parish registers
    JEL: N33
    Date: 2016–01–15
  19. By: Matthias Blum; Alan de Bromhead
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between Nazi membership and social mobility using a unique and highly detailed dataset of military con- scripts and volunteers during the Third Reich. We find that membership of a Nazi organisation is positively related to social mobility when measured by the difference between fathers' and sons' occupations. This relationship is stronger for the more 'elite' NS organisations, the NSDAP and the SS. However, we find that this observed difference in upward mobility is driven by individuals with different characteristics self-selecting into these organisations, rather than from a direct reward to membership. These results are confirmed by a series of robustness tests. In addition, we employ our highly-detailed dataset to explore the determinants of Nazi membership. We find that NS membership is associated with higher socio-economic background and human capital levels.
    Keywords: National Socialism, Third Reich, Social Mobility, Nazi Membership, Second World War, Political Economy, Germany, Economic History
    JEL: J62 N24 N44 P16
    Date: 2017–03
  20. By: Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck (Department of Business and Economics); Jensen, Peter Sandholt (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence that the Second Vatican Council (1962-65) exerted a critical influence on the evolution of democracy worldwide, a view first advanced in the seminal work of Huntington (1991). We gather qualitative case-study evidence on how the Catholic Church influenced the post-Conciliar democratization process in different national contexts. We also adopt a difference-in-difference estimation strategy to show that Vatican II strongly predicts different measures of democracy. Taken together, the evidence substantiates Huntington’s dictum that the third wave of democratization was a Catholic wave.
    Keywords: Democracy; third wave; religion; Catholic Church; Second Vatican Council; causal-process observations; difference-in-difference estimation
    JEL: N40 P16
    Date: 2017–03–23
  21. By: Luc Désiré Omgba
    Abstract: This paper investigates the sources of variability in the mobilization of domestic tax revenue in oil-producing countries. It argues that the type of natural resources exploited during colonial rule can affect the contemporary levels of domestic tax revenue in oil countries. We test this conjecture by regressing non-oil tax revenue on a proxy of extractive capacity, which is the distance between the date of the beginning of oil production and the date of a country’s political independence. The results show that this proxy of extractive capacity positively affects the nonoil tax revenue of oil-producing countries, and these results are robust to various sensitivity checks. The persistence of the pre-existing extractive institutions as well as their subsequent privileged position explain why the elites have no interest in changing this scenario.
    Keywords: tax revenues, oil resources, economic history
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Jebwab, Remi; Johnson, Noel D; Koyama, Mark
    Abstract: In this paper we study the Black Death persecutions (1347-1352) against Jews in order to shed light on the factors determining when a minority group will face persecution. We develop a theoretical framework which predicts that negative shocks increase the likelihood that minorities are scapegoated and persecuted. By contrast, as the shocks become more severe, persecution probability may actually decrease if there are economic complementarities between the majority and minority groups. We compile city- level data on Black Death mortality and Jewish persecution. At an aggregate level we find that scapegoating led to an increase in the baseline probability of a persecution. However, at the city-level, locations which experienced higher plague mortality rates were less likely to engage in persecutions. Furthermore, persecutions were more likely in cities with a history of antisemitism (consistent with scapegoating) and less likely in cities where Jews played an important economic role (consistent with inter-group complementarities).
    Keywords: Ethnic Conflict; Religious Conflict; Minorities; Persecutions; Massacres; Libels; Black Death; Jewish Economic History; Middle Ages; Epidemics; Cities; Trade
    JEL: D74 J15 N33 N4 N43 O1 R1 Z12
    Date: 2017–03
  23. By: François Facchini (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Deirdre McCloskey a formulé une critique puissante de la rhétorique économique. À l'occasion de la traduction française d'un de ses ouvrages, François Facchini revient sur ses travaux pour éclairer les débats actuels autour de la scientificité de l'économie. La traduction française du petit ouvrage The Secret Sins of Economics, publié en 2002 par Deirdre N. McCloskey, est l'occasion de revenir sur le parcours intellectuel et les positions épistémologiques de cette économiste américaine au savoir éclectique et encyclopédique. Cet ouvrage d'épistémologie économique reprend en effet des thèmes déjà abordés dans des ouvrages précédents (1994a, 1994b) et conduit à s'interroger sur l'apport de l'économétrie au savoir des économistes. Écrit comme une intrigue policière, Les péchés secrets de la science économique participe à la critique des tests de significativité statistique et se propose de remettre à sa juste place une bonne partie de la littérature économique. Le présent article entend ainsi profiter de la parution de ce petit ouvrage pour revenir sur quelques-unes des thèses d'épistémologie économique du Professeur McCloskey et pour proposer à leur lumière une lecture, qui se veut originale, de la controverse suscitée par l'ouvrage de Cahuc et Zylberberg (2016) dans le monde des économistes français.
    Keywords: épistémologie, sciences économiques, économétrie, négationnisme en économie
    Date: 2017–03–07
  24. By: Abel Brodeur (University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); Warn N. Lekfuangfu (Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok); Yanos Zylberberg (Bristol University, Bristol)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the determinants behind the spatial distribution of the sex industry in Thailand. We relate the development of the sex industry to an early temporary demand shock, i.e., U.S. military presence during the Vietnam War. Comparing the surroundings of Thai military bases used by the U.S. army to districts close to unused Thai bases, we find that there are currently 5 times more commercial sex workers in districts near former U.S. bases. The development of the sex industry is also explained by a high price elasticity of supply due to female migration from regions affected by an agricultural crisis. Finally, we study a consequence induced by the large numbers of sex workers in few red-light districts: the HIV outbreak in the early 1990s.
    Keywords: Persistence, Industry Location, Sex Industry, HIV/AIDS
    JEL: O17 O18 N15 J46 J47 I28
    Date: 2017
  25. By: Andrea Ricci (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino "Carlo Bo")
    Abstract: IThe development of the concept of a commodity is pursued from the recognition of an initial analytical moment, different from formal logic, within Marx’s dialectical thought. A consistent interpretation of Marxian categories, from substance to magnitude and measure of value, is proposed. Concepts strongly disputed in literature, like abstract labour and money, find their proper positioning, and real measure provides an operational basis to value assessment of concrete economies. The restoration of the conceptual foundations of Marx’s theory opens the way to further research on the whole theoretical edifice of Capital and analysis of today’s capitalism.
    Keywords: Commodity, Labour theory of value, Marxism, Dialectic, Abstract labour, Money.
    JEL: A12 B14 B51 E40
    Date: 2016
  26. By: Adedokun, Ayokunu (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)
    Abstract: How and why do some civil wars end in a peace that endures while other civil wars re-ignite? The existing literature comes to contradictory and puzzling conclusions. For example, while some scholars and development practitioners argue that differences in post-conflict peace-building outcomes were to be explained by the intervention of the international community, other scholars focus on how a civil war ends -whether it ended in a government victory, a rebel victory or a negotiated settlement. By contrast, more recent studies find that states' attributes such as the level of economic development; pre-war level of democracy; the degree of ethnic fractionalisation; and state dependence on oil exports influence the outcomes of post-conflict peacebuilding. Although these explanations focus on different aspects and use different explanatory variables to explain the variation in post-conflict peacebuilding, they are complementary and overlapping in many important ways. This paper presents an in-depth review of a wide body of theoretical and empirical research on post-conflict peacebuilding. The review covers three stands of literature on peace and conflict research which include: (1) those that focus on the root causes of the initial conflict, (2) those that focus on how the original war was fought, and finally, (3) those that focus on post-conflict peacebuilding. The insights from this literature reveals that while existing studies on the transition from civil war to peace have yielded considerable insights, there are a number of weaknesses and gaps. Some policy conclusions are drawn and directions for future research are suggested.
    Keywords: Civil war, Peacebuilding, Post-conflict relapse, International community
    JEL: D74 F50 F53 O50 N40
    Date: 2017–03–10
  27. By: Aurélien Goutsmedt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The article shows that Sargent's view of macroeconomics is in contrast with Lucas' one. According to the latter, assumptions in a model are un-realist, the model do not aim at representing reality. It is rather a simulation tool to enable the evaluation of different economic policies. The Lucasian ideal reflects a belief in a macroeconomist who is an engineer in charge of the production of a “software for economic policies” used by governmental authorities. And he is the one who handles the software to help policy choices on a scientific basis. Concerning Sargent, he believed that in order to replace the Keynesian paradigm, New Classical Economics had to be able to succeed in the same tasks. And one of these tasks was to advise political power by bringing some telescope to read current economic phenomenon and some intuitive ideas to debate on economic policy. Sargent sought to implement what he called the Rational Expectations Theory to some concrete cases (Poincaré Stabilization, German Hyperinflation, Thatcher and Reagan policies) to show the relevance of such a framework to think about current economic issues.
    Abstract: L'idée est de montrer que la vision de la macroéconomie de Sargent contraste avec celle de Lucas. Pour Lucas, les hypothèses d'un modèle sont « a-réalistes », le modèle ne vise pas à représenter la réalité. Il est un outil de simulation qui doit permettre de simuler différentes politiques économiques. L'idéal « lucassien » est celui d'un macroéconomiste qui a donc vocation à devenir un ingénieur chargé de fournir un « logiciel de politiques économiques » aux autorités publiques, logiciel qu'il manipule afin d'aiguiller les choix de politiques sur une base scientifique. Sargent, quant à lui, considère que pour suppléer le paradigme keynésien, la nouvelle économie classique doit être capable de remplir les mêmes tâches, et l'une de ces tâches est de conseiller le pouvoir en lui fournissant une grille de lecture des phénomènes économiques et des outils intuitifs pour d&eaute;battre des politiques économiques à mettre en place. Sargent cherche à appliquer ce qu'il nomme la théorie des anticipations rationnelles à un ensemble de cas concrets (stabilisation Poincaré, hyperinflation allemande, politique de Thatcher et Reagan) pour montrer la pertinence de ce cadre d'analyse pour penser les problèmes économiques contemporains.
    Keywords: Rational Expectations,New Classical Economics,Macroeconomics History,Histoire de la macroéconomie,Nouvelle Economie Classique,Anticipations rationnelles
    Date: 2017–02
  28. By: Sebastian A.J. Keibek (The Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure)
    Keywords: by-employments, probate inventories, wealth bias, occupational structure, parish registers, women’s work
    JEL: N33
    Date: 2016–01–15

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