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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2017‒02‒05
twenty-six papers chosen by |
| By: | Robert J. Shiller |
| Abstract: | This address considers the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations. The human brain has always been highly tuned towards narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing. Stories motivate and connect activities to deeply felt values and needs. Narratives “go viral” and spread far, even worldwide, with economic impact. The 1920-21 Depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s, the so-called “Great Recession” of 2007-9 and the contentious political-economic situation of today, are considered as the results of the popular narratives of their respective times. Though these narratives are deeply human phenomena that are difficult to study in a scientific manner, quantitative analysis may help us gain a better understanding of these epidemics in the future. |
| JEL: | E00 E03 E30 G02 N1 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23075&r=his |
| By: | Alejandra Irigoin |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:68967&r=his |
| By: | Anelí Bongers (Department of Economics, University of Málaga); José L. Torres (Department of Economics, University of Málaga) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a stochastic salvo combat model to study the Battle of Midway. The parameters of the model are calibrated accordingly to the historical outcome and thus, the model can be used to study alternative scenarios. Contrary to the common wisdom that the result of the Battle was an "incredible" American victory, the model shows that the probability for Japanese to win were very low and indeed close to zero. We carry on four alternative counterfactual analyses: (i) All launched American attack aircraft reach to the Japanese carriers; ii) An additional Japanese carrier; iii) Not to wait to launch Japanese attack aircraft; and iv) American carriers spotted earlier. Including the most favorable scenario for the Japanese, the Battle of Midway remains an American victory. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic salvo combat model; Battle of Midway; Monte Carlo simulation; Counterfactual analysis |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mal:wpaper:2017-1&r=his |
| By: | Markus H. Böhme (OECD); Sarah Kups (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews existing theoretical and empirical evidence on the economic effects of immigration in developing countries. Specifically, it discusses how immigration may affect labour market, entrepreneurship, human capital, productivity, economic growth, the exchange rate, trade, prices, public finance and public goods in host countries. As the majority of the relevant literature has traditionally focused on the experience of high-income countries, the review highlights the unique context of developing countries and elaborates how outcomes may be similar or differ in low and middle-income countries. A general conclusion is that the economic effects of immigration to developing countries, a numerically important phenomenon, warrants additional theoretical and empirical research. Cet article analyse les preuves théoriques et empiriques existantes sur les effets économiques de l'immigration dans les pays en développement. Plus précisément, il explique comment, dans un pays d’accueil, l'immigration peut avoir un impact sur le marché du travail, l'esprit d'entreprise, le capital humain, la productivité, la croissance économique, les taux de change, le commerce, les prix, les finances publiques et les biens publics. Comme la majorité de la littérature pertinente a toujours été axée sur l'expérience des pays à revenu élevé ; cette fois-ci, l’examen met en avant le contexte privilégié des pays en développement et détaille de quelle manière les résultats peuvent être semblables ou différents dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire. En conclusion, les effets économiques de l'immigration sur les pays en développement, un phénomène important si l’on en croit les chiffres, nécessiterait d’effectuer des recherches théoriques et empiriques supplémentaires. |
| Keywords: | development, immigration |
| JEL: | J61 O1 |
| Date: | 2017–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaaa:335-en&r=his |
| By: | Iyigun, Murat (University of Colorado, Boulder); Nunn, Nathan (Harvard University); Qian, Nancy (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-run effects of climate change on conflict by examining cooling from 1400-1900 CE, a period that includes most of the Little Ice Age. We construct a geo-referenced and digitized database of conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East from 1400-1900, which we merge with historical temperature data. We first show that during this time, cooling is associated with increased conflict. Then, turning to the dynamics of cooling, we allow the effects of cooling over a fifty-year period to depend on the extent of cooling during the preceding fifty-year period. We find that the effect of cooling on conflict is significantly larger if the same location experienced cooling during the preceding period. We interpret this as evidence that the adverse effect of climate change intensifies with its duration. |
| Keywords: | environment, development, political economy |
| JEL: | D74 Q34 P16 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10475&r=his |
| By: | Alina Bodrova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The study is focused on narrative specific of Baratynsky’s “unexplained” tale “Persten” (The Ring) in comparison to, on the one hand, the material assembled within the frameworks of HSE project Russkaja Povest 1825–1850, and, on the other, taking into consideration the material of previous period (the first third of the 19th century). Using the research facilities provided by poetics of expressiveness the author describes and defines the functions of different techniques concerning the plot, composition and narrative. The author demonstrates how Baratynsky combines the widespread plots (‘magic ring’, ‘devil in love’, ‘adultery’, etc.) in a very complicated narrative model that diminishes the power of every plotline and deceives readers’ expectations. Using the database of most frequent plots (“Russian Tale, 1825-1850”, 800 texts), the paper compares “Persten” with typical and very rare plot schemes and demonstrates that Baratynsky’s tale manifests the marginal line of Russian fiction which mainstream came to choose another direction. |
| Keywords: | E. A. Baratynsky, Russian tale, evolution of Russian prose of 1825–1850, narrative, plot structure |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:18/ls/2016&r=his |
| By: | Natalia M. Dolgorukova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the first French critiques of the two Mikhail Bakhtin’s monographs and the careful exploration of these reviews enables to explain why they presented him as a formalist. It also traces the reasons of irrelevance of the thinker’s ideas in the early French reception |
| Keywords: | M.M. Bakhtin, French reviews, Y. Kristeva, Russian formalists |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:17/ls/2016&r=his |
| By: | Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Charlotte Le Chapelain |
| Abstract: | Building on the results of the Guizot Inquiry, carried out in autumn 1833 on the initiative of François Guizot, the minister of public instruction, this article examines the process of human capital accumulation in early nineteenth-century France. We rely on an original proxy for human capital – student achievement – to highlight the high level of heterogeneity in human capital accumulation in this period. We identify two types of schools in the French educational landscape: first, large schools, well-endowed in human and material resources, which contributed a great deal to human capital accumulation; second, small schools, characterised by some degree of amateurism and improvisation, which weakly contributed to human capital formation. We note that the use of literacy rates or school enrollment rates can be misleading with regard to the estimation of French human capital endowments, laying emphasis instead on the heterogeneity in the French educational landscape at the dawn of the nineteenth century, as the country embarked on the process of industrialisation. |
| Keywords: | Guizot Inquiry, Human Capital Accumulation, France, Nineteenth Century. |
| JEL: | C10 I21 N33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2017-01&r=his |
| By: | David, Cuberes; Rafael, González-Val |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of the Spanish Reconquest, a military campaign against the Muslims in the medieval Iberian Peninsula that ended up with the expulsion or extermination of most of the Muslim population from this territory. We use this major historical event to study the persistence of population shocks at the city level. We find that the Reconquest had an average significant negative effect on the relative and log-scale population of the main Iberian cities even after controlling for a large set of country and city-specific geographical and economic indicators, as well as city-specific time trends. Nevertheless, our results show that this negative shock was relatively short-lived, vanishing on average within the first one hundred years after the onset of the Reconquest. These results suggest that the locational fundamentals that determined the size of Iberian cities before the Reconquest were more important determinants of the fate of these cities than the direct negative impact that the Reconquest may have had on their population. Our findings can also be interpreted as weak evidence on the negative effect that war and conflict can have on urban population. |
| Keywords: | locational fundamentals; city growth; lock-in effects; warfare, conflict and cities |
| JEL: | N9 R12 |
| Date: | 2017–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:76374&r=his |
| By: | Assaf Razin |
| Abstract: | The paper gives an economic-history perspective of the long struggle with inflation. It covers the early acceleration to three-digit levels, lasting 8 years; The stabilization program, based on political backing triggered sharp fall in inflationary expectation, and consequently to sharp inflation reduction to two-digit levels; The convergence to the advanced countries’ levels during the “great Moderation”; and Israel’s resistance to the deflation-depression forces that the 2008 crisis created. The emphasis is on the forces of globalization and the building of institutions, political, regulatory, financial, budget design, and monetary, which helped stabilize prices and output. |
| JEL: | E0 F0 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23061&r=his |
| By: | Hubert BONIN |
| Abstract: | At the heart of the economic war and as leverage to the military war, some companies asserted themselves as essential suppliers of the armies. They constituted poles of investment, innovation, and production, that complied to the ever growing orders of the state. Schneider reinforced therefore its equipments in Le Creusot, in Normandy and in Gironde, supported by the banks, in particular for its purchases in the United-States. It also the head of a cluster, of a group of companies cooperating for the main orders. As a hub-firm, it mobilised thus dozens of suppliers and sub-contractors. It earmarked it portfolios of skills to the arts of steel-working, metal-working, and mechanics (artillery, tanks, etc.). Throughout these developments it had to reinvent its management and follow new tracks for efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Economic war ; industry ; cluster ; hub-firm; metallurgy ; mechanics |
| JEL: | D22 F23 H56 L25 L61 N64 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2017-02&r=his |
| By: | Olivetti, Claudia; Petrongolo, Barbara |
| Abstract: | We draw lessons from existing work and our own analysis on the effects of parental leave and other interventions aimed at aiding families. The outcomes of interest are female employment, gender gaps in earnings and fertility. We begin with a discussion of the historical introduction of family policies ever since the end of the nineteenth century and then turn to the details regarding family policies currently in effect across high-income nations. We sketch a framework concerning the effects of family policy to motivate our country- and micro-level evidence on the impact of family policies on gender outcomes. Most estimates of the impact of parental leave entitlement on female labor market outcomes range from negligible to weakly positive. The verdict is far more positive for the beneficial impact of spending on early education and childcare. |
| Keywords: | childcare; family policies; gender gaps; parental leave |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11784&r=his |
| By: | David A. Keiser; Joseph S. Shapiro |
| Abstract: | Since the 1972 U.S. Clean Water Act, government and industry have invested over $1 trillion to abate water pollution, or $100 per person-year. Over half of U.S. stream and river miles, however, still violate pollution standards. We use the most comprehensive set of files ever compiled on water pollution and its determinants, including 50 million pollution readings from 170,000 monitoring sites, to study water pollution's trends, causes, and welfare consequences. We have three main findings. First, water pollution concentrations have fallen substantially since 1972, though were declining at faster rates before then. Second, the Clean Water Act's grants to municipal wastewater treatment plants caused some of these declines. Third, the grants' estimated effects on housing values are generally smaller than the grants' costs. |
| JEL: | H23 H54 H70 Q50 R31 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23070&r=his |
| By: | Graetz, Georg (Uppsala University); Michaels, Guy (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Since the early 1990s, recoveries from recessions in the US have been plagued by weak employment growth. One possible explanation for these "jobless" recoveries is rooted in technological change: middle-skill jobs, often involving routine tasks, are lost during recessions, and the displaced workers take time to transition into other jobs (Jaimovich and Siu, 2014). But technological replacement of middle-skill workers is not unique to the US – it also takes place in other developed countries (Goos, Manning, and Salomons, 2014). So if jobless recoveries in the US are due to technology, we might expect to also see them elsewhere in the developed world. We test this possibility using data on recoveries from 71 recessions in 28 industries and 17 countries from 1970-2011. We find that though GDP recovered more slowly after recent recessions, employment did not. Industries that used more routine tasks, and those more exposed to robotization, did not recently experience slower employment recoveries. Finally, middle-skill employment did not recover more slowly after recent recessions, and this pattern was no different in routine-intensive industries. Taken together, this evidence suggests that technology is not causing jobless recoveries in developed countries outside the US. |
| Keywords: | job polarization, jobless recoveries, routine-biased technological change, robots |
| JEL: | E32 J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10470&r=his |
| By: | Bonick, Matthew; Farfán-Vallespín, Antonio |
| Abstract: | Using a novel method to measure racism at the individual and country level, we show, our measure of racism has a strong negative and significant impact on economic development, quality of institutions, education and social capital. We test different hypotheses concerning the origin of racism and its channels of impact to establish causality. We find racism is not correlated with measures for the coexistence of different racial or ethnic groups or ethnically- motivated conflicts. Importantly, we show, for former colonies, racism is strongly correlated with the presence of extractive institutions during colonial times, even after controlling for current institutions, GDP per capita and education. We argue, extractive colonial institutions not only had a negative impact on the political and economic institutions but also shaped the cultural values of the population. We claim colonial powers instilled racism among the population of their colonies in order to weaken their ability for collective action. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cenwps:022016&r=his |
| By: | Nikolay NENOVSKY; Tsvetelina MARINOVA |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:leo:wpaper:2459&r=his |
| By: | Elena Zemskova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The article addresses a literary biography of Alexander Ilyich Romm (1893 – 1943), philologist, poet and translator, focusing on the last years of Romm’s life when he had been an active member of the Translators Section of the Union of Soviet Writers, involved in producing translations of politically committed poetry both from foreign languages and from national languages of the Soviet Union. Drawing upon Andre Lefevere’s idea of translation as rewriting and manipulation, the article takes a close look at the process of production and stylization of such translations. Surviving archival documents, including Romm’s diaries, offer a glimpse of how harrowing for him was an experience of depersonalization translators were subjected to in the Soviet literary system |
| Keywords: | literary translation, Soviet Literature, Soviet Writers Union, Alexander Romm |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:15/ls/2016&r=his |
| By: | László Á. Kóczy (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and and Keleti Faculty of Business and Management, Óbuda University); János Kiss Hubert (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | The 2016 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmström for their work on contract theory. Contract theory is a subfield of game theory where the conflict between the owner - the principal - and the CEO - or agent is at the centre of interest. In the following we explain the principal-agent model of Holmström with some extensions and then look at the property right aspects of these models based on Hart's work. Although the two researchers are recognised for their theoretical work, in our simple introduction we avoid complex formulae and illustrate the models with examples. |
| Keywords: | contract theory, incentives, principal-agent problem, Nobel prize, risk, property rights JEL Codes: C72, D82, D86 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pkk:wpaper:1701&r=his |
| By: | Elias Einiö |
| Abstract: | This paper examines changes in the structure of labour demand in plant-level panel data. I exploit variation in wages across local labour markets induced by the collapse of Finland’s Soviet-dependent industry in the early 1990s to identify a labour demand model for plants producing for non-Soviet markets, which were not directly affected by the Soviet shock. I find a labour demand shift against workers in production occupations which accelerates in the 2000s, when industry patterns begin to diverge. Industry heterogeneity suggests that variation in industry structure may partly explain the differential development of wages and employment across countries |
| Keywords: | Labour demand function; occupation; offshoring; manufacturing; panel data; production work; technical change |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:69019&r=his |
| By: | Manuel García-Santana (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE); Josep Pijoan-Mas (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Lucciano Villacorta (Banco Central de Chile) |
| Abstract: | The sectoral composition of growing economies is largely affected by the evolution of the investment rate outside the balanced growth path. We present three novel facts consistent with this idea: (a) the value added share of manufacturing within investment goods is larger than within consumption goods, (b) the standard hump-shaped profile of manufacturing with development is much more apparent for the whole economy than for the investment and consumption goods separately, and (c) the investment rate displays a hump with development similar to the one of the value added share of manufacturing. Using a standard multi-sector growth model estimated with a large panel of countries, we find that this mechanism is especially important for the industrialization of several countries since the 1950's and for the deindustrialization of many Western economies since the 1970's. In addition, it explains a substantial part of the standard hump-shaped relationship between manufacturing and development, which has been a challenge for theories of structural transformation under balanced growth. Finally, the different composition of investment and consumption goods can also explain up to half of the decline in the relative price of investment since 1980. |
| Keywords: | Structural change, transitional dynamics, neo-classical growth model. |
| JEL: | E23 E21 O41 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2016_1605&r=his |
| By: | Nikolay NENOVSKY; Tsvetelina MARINOVA |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:leo:wpaper:2460&r=his |
| By: | Yasuhiro Sakai (Faculty of Economics, Shiga University) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to shed a new light on the working and performance of the market economy from a pluralistic viewpoint. To this end, we first pay attention to the general equilibrium theory a la L.W. McKenzie, K. J. Arrow and G. Debreu. Whereas this theory seems to be established on the foundation of solid logic and advanced mathematics, the existence of special ethics and ideology behind the scenes should not be forgotten. We next reexamine the thought of Frank H. Knight, who has raised an strong objection against glorification of the market economy. In the late 1960s, I was a graduate student at the University of Rochester. I still recall the touching moment when Professor McKenzie, finally succeeding after a long struggle to prove the existence of a competitive economy by help of a mathematical theorem of fixed point, posed a bit in a class and said quietly, "It' so beautiful! ". The world was then in the midst of Cold War and divided into the two powerful blocs, the socialist bloc dominated by the Soviet Union and the capitalist block led by the United States of America. McKenzie's complacent whispering sounded like the victory declaration of capitalism over socialism. Around 40 years have passed since then. It seems that the "academic Cold War" between Marxian economics and modern economics is now over. At the same time, the ethics and ideology of general equilibrium looks surely fading away although it is not completely vanished. It is our regret, however, the new, synthetic social science which can replace the existing dogmatic doctrines are not in sight yet. A completely new approach like a second Knight or a second Keynes would urgently be needed. |
| Keywords: | Knight, market thinking, general equilibrium, ethics, ideology |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shg:dpapea:22&r=his |
| By: | Tom Vogl |
| Abstract: | Fertility change is distinct from other forms of social and economic change because it directly alters the size and composition of the next generation. This paper studies how changes in population composition over the fertility transition feed back into the evolution of average fertility across generations. Theory predicts that changes in the relationship between human capital and fertility first weaken and then strengthen fertility similarities between mothers and daughters, a process that first promotes and then restricts aggregate fertility decline. Consistent with these predictions, microdata from 40 developing countries over the second half of the 20th century show that intergenerational fertility associations strengthen late in the fertility transition, due to the alignment of the education-fertility relationship across generations. As fertility approaches the replacement level, the strengthening of these associations reweights the population to raise aggregate fertility rates, pushing back against aggregate fertility decline. |
| JEL: | J1 O1 O4 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23081&r=his |
| By: | Gareth A. Jones; Dennis Rodgers |
| Abstract: | It has become increasingly commonplace to note that the past decade has witnessed a proliferation of anthropological studies dealing holistically with the dynamics of cities and city-living, to the extent that the current moment is considered to represent something of an epistemological ‘flourishing’ within anthropology, particularly in relation to the benchmark of the discipline’s historical urban mainstay, the neighbourhood ethnography. Studies explicitly offering a window onto the broader nature of urban contexts are not necessarily new, however, and indeed, were arguably the basis upon which urban anthropology originally emerged as an identifiable sub-discipline before subsequently taking a more particularistic turn. This article offers a re-appraisal of the origins and evolution of holistic urban anthropological approaches, explaining how, why, and in what context these coalesced during the first quarter of the 20th century, as well as offering an explanation for the ensuing rise of more parochial approaches to city life. It does so based on an alternative intellectual history of the famous Chicago School of Sociology (CSS), in particular highlighting the epistemological debt contemporary anthropological studies implicitly owe to the CSS, as well as the enduring lessons that the urban studies it inspired potentially continue to offer for anthropology. |
| JEL: | Q15 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67929&r=his |
| By: | Claude Diebolt; Faustine Perrin |
| Abstract: | This chapter explores the role of gender equality over the long-run economic and demographic development path of industrialized countries. It accounts for changes in fertility, technology, and income per capita in the transition from stagnation to sustained growth. Our unified cliometric growth model of female empowerment suggests that changes in gender relations, triggered by endogenous skill-biased technological progress, induce women to invest in skilled education and engage a process of human capital accumulation. In parallel, a higher time spent by women in education increases the opportunity cost of having children and reduces fertility. This positive feedback loop generates both a demographic and an economic transition. |
| Keywords: | Cliometrics, Economic Growth, Gender, Fertility, Human Capital. |
| JEL: | J1 N3 O4 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2017-03&r=his |
| By: | Georg Graetz; Guy Michaels |
| Abstract: | Since the early 1990s, recoveries from recessions in the US have been plagued by weak employment growth. One possible explanation for these “jobless” recoveries is rooted in technological change: middle-skill jobs, often involving routine tasks, are lost during recessions, and the displaced workers take time to transition into other jobs (Jaimovich and Siu, 2014). But technological replacement of middle-skill workers is not unique to the US—it also takes place in other developed countries (Goos, Manning, and Salomons, 2014). So if jobless recoveries in the US are due to technology, we might expect to also see them elsewhere in the developed world. We test this possibility using data on recoveries from 71 recessions in 28 industries and 17 countries from 1970-2011. We find that though GDP recovered more slowly after recent recessions, employment did not. Industries that used more routine tasks, and those more exposed to robotization, did not recently experience slower employment recoveries. Finally, middle-skill employment did not recover more slowly after recent recessions, and this pattern was no different in routine-intensive industries. Taken together, this evidence suggests that technology is not causing jobless recoveries in developed countries outside the US. |
| Keywords: | job polarization; jobless recoveries; routine-biased technological change; robots |
| JEL: | E32 J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:69043&r=his |