nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒12‒04
35 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Symbioses imperative and convenient: The Evolution of Crony Capitalism in Puebla, Mexico, 1920-1940 By Paxman, Andrew
  2. Reformation and Reallocation: Religious and Secular Economic Activity in Early Modern Germany By Cantoni, Davide; Dittmar, Jeremiah; Yuchtman, Noam
  3. Japan’s Ultimately Unaccursed Natural Resources-Financed Industrialization By Randall Morck; Masao Nakamura
  4. Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid-1990s: Main developments By Hein, Eckhard
  5. Notes de lecture de : Patricia Commun, les ordolibéraux Histoire d’un libéralisme à l’allemande Paris : Les Belles Lettres, [2016] By Alain Alcouffe
  6. Economic Institutions and Comparative Economic Development: A Post-Colonial Perspective By Daniel L. Bennett; Hugo J. Faria; James D. Gwartney; Daniel R. Morales
  7. International Banking and Transmission of the 1931 Financial Crisis By Accominotti, Olivier
  8. Mortality among European settlers in pre-colonial West Africa: The “White Man’s Grave” revisited By Öberg, Stefan; Rönnbäck, Klas
  9. Kojève : L'homme qui voulait tout savoir By Laurent Bibard
  10. Post-crisis and the bronze age of welfare in Europe By Luis Moreno
  11. Collective Action and Representation in Autocracies: Evidence from Russia's Great Reforms By Paul C. Dower; Evgeny Finkel; Scott Gehlbach; Steven Nafziger
  12. The Legacies of Slavery in and out of Africa By Bertocchi, Graziella
  13. On the Dispensability of New Transportation Technologies: Evidence from Colonial Railroads in Nigeria By Okoye, Dozie; Pongou, Roland; Yokossi, Tite
  14. The role of demesnes in the trade of agricultural horses in late medieval England By Jordan Claridge
  15. Capital Structure and Corporate Performance in Late Imperial Russia By Amanda Gregg; Steven Nafziger
  16. Pricing the Odious in Odious Debts By Collet, Stéphanie; Oosterlinck, Kim
  17. The Decline of the Khoikhoi Population, 1652-1780: A Review and a New Estimate By Sumner La Croix
  18. Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press By Gabriel Mathy; Herman O. Stekler
  19. The Tools and Transmission of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy in the 1920s By Mark Carlson; Burcu Duygan-Bump
  20. Interpelaciones desde la condición posmoderna a la disciplina histórica By Darío Indalecio Restrepo
  21. What was fair in acturial fairness? By Antonio José Heras Martínez; David Teira; Pierre-Charles Pradier
  22. Long-Run Consequences of Labor Coercion: Evidence from Russian Serfdom By Johannes C. Buggle; Steven Nafziger
  23. Immigrants and Firms' Outcomes: Evidence from France By Cristina Mitaritonna; Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Peri
  24. Market Integration as a Mechanism of Growth By Keller, Wolfgang; Shiue, Carol H
  25. Laws, Educational Outcomes, and Returns to Schooling: Evidence from the Full Count 1940 Census By Karen Clay; Jeff Lingwall; Melvin Stephens, Jr.
  26. "Risks and Returns of Trades: A case of Mitsubishi Corporation in the Prewar Period " (in Japanese) By Tetsuji Okazaki
  27. The Failure of a Clearinghouse: Empirical Evidence By Bignon, Vincent; Vuillemey, Guillaume
  28. “Reviewing Path Dependence Theory in Economics: Micro–Foundations of Endogenous Change Processes” By Gigante, Anna Azzurra
  29. The Impact of the 1896 Factory and Shops Act on Victorian Labour Markets By Andrew Seltzer; Jeff Borland
  30. Democracy and income inequality: revisiting the long and short-term relationship By Zlatko Nikoloski
  31. El programa de becas para estudios en el exterior del Banco de la República y la formación del capital humano en el área económica en Colombia By Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez; José E. Gómez-González; Jorge Hirs-Garzón; Adolfo Meisel-Roca; Jair N. Ojeda-Joya
  32. Is the American Public Corporation in Trouble? By Kathleen Kahle; René M. Stulz
  33. Title characteristics and citations in economics By Wohlrabe, Klaus; Gnewuch, Matthias
  34. Interwar Unemployment in the UK and US: Old and New Evidence By Naveen Srinivasan; Pratik Mitra
  35. Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data By Vasilios Plakandaras; Juncal Cunado; Rangan Gupta; Mark E. Wohar

  1. By: Paxman, Andrew
    Abstract: Several historians have used “crony capitalism” to label the cozy and inefficient relationships between business and political elites prevailing in Mexico since the 19th century. But it is a nebulous term, stigmatizing various behaviors not all of which are harmful to state formation or economic growth. I seek to solve this problem of conceptual vagueness by differentiating between forms of state-capital interdependence. The first, necessary to both parties at times of uncertainty, I term a “symbiotic imperative,” which operates between institutions and purports to serve the greater good. The second, involving exchanges of favors that are merely advantageous, I term “symbiotic convenience,” which tends to operate at a more interpersonal level. As a case study, I consider relations between governors and the leading industrialist William Jenkins in Puebla after the Revolution.
    Keywords: crony capitalism, symbiotic imperative, symbiotic convenience, William Jenkins, Mexico, Puebla,
    JEL: N4 N46
    Date: 2016–11–25
  2. By: Cantoni, Davide; Dittmar, Jeremiah; Yuchtman, Noam
    Abstract: The Protestant Reformation, beginning in 1517, was a first-order economic shock. We document its effects on the sectoral allocation of economic activity in Germany using highly disaggregated data. During the Reformation, particularly in Protestant regions, large numbers of monasteries were expropriated. University graduates shifted toward secular, rather than religious, occupations. Forward-looking university students shifted away from the study of religious sector-specific theology, toward secular fields. Construction activity in the religious sector declined, particularly in Protestant regions, while secular construction increased. These findings highlight the unintended consequences of the Reformation---a religious movement that contributed to Europe's secularization.
    Keywords: Human Capital; Protestant Reformation; Sectoral Allocation
    JEL: E02 J24 N13 N33
    Date: 2016–11
  3. By: Randall Morck; Masao Nakamura
    Abstract: Japan’s successful industrialization in the late 19th and early 20th century largely exhausted its then abundant natural resources. Rather than exemplifying rapid development in the absence of natural resources, Japan shows how laissez-faire government and successfully transplanted classical liberal institutions, including active stock markets, exorcised a natural resources curse that undermined its prior state-led industrialization strategy. Japan’s post-WWII reconstruction relied little on natural resources and more on bank financing and state direction, but was not an example of an initial industrialization
    JEL: G3 N25 O14 O53 P28
    Date: 2016–11
  4. By: Hein, Eckhard
    Abstract: In this paper the main developments in post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid- 1990s will be reviewed. For this purpose the main differences between heterodox economics in general, including post-Keynesian economics, and orthodox economics will be reiterated and an overview over the strands of post-Keynesian economics, their commonalities and developments since the 1930s will be outlined. This will provide the grounds for touching upon three important areas of development and progress of post- Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid-1990s: first, the integration of distribution issues and distributional conflict into short- and long-run macroeconomics, both in theoretical and in empirical/applied works; second, the integrated analysis of money, finance and macroeconomics and its application to changing institutional and historical circumstances, like the process of financialisation; and third, the development of full-blown macroeconomic models, providing alternatives to the mainstream 'New Consensus Model' (NCM), and allowing to derive a full macroeconomic policy mix as a more convincing alternative to the one implied and proposed by the mainstream NCM, which has desperately failed in the face of the recent crises.
    Keywords: post-Keynesian macroeconomics,heterodox vs. orthodox economics,pluralism in economics,distribution,money,finance,macroeconomics,macroeconomic policies
    JEL: B22 E12
    Date: 2016
  5. By: Alain Alcouffe (LIRHE - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de recherche sur les Ressources Humaines et l'Emploi - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The author presents an account of the liberal economic thought in Germany from the dawn of the 20th century to the sixties. She describes in sufficient detail the conceptions of economic thought and economic policies of W. Eucken, W. Röpke, L. Erhard and A. Müller-Armack who are generally considered as the fathers of the social market economy. Meanwhile, the author provides keys to understand German current economic policy that is heavily discussed while its intellectual roots are poorly understood. The book fills in a very large gap in the history of economics.
    Abstract: l'auteur rend compte des avatars de la pensée économique libérale en Allemagne de l’aube du 20e siècle aux années 60. Elle expose de façon détaillée les conceptions de quatre économistes, W. Eucken, W. Röpke, L. Erhard et A. Müller-Armack à qui on attribue couramment l’origine de l’économie sociale de marché. Chemin faisant, l’auteur offre des clés pour comprendre la politique économique allemande contemporaine dont les racines sont méconnues alors qu’elle fait l’objet de de tant de débats. Le livre vient combler un vide dans la littérature économique.
    Keywords: German economic thought, W. Eucken, W. Röpke, L. Erhard , A. Müller-Armack, Social market economy
    Date: 2016–09–12
  6. By: Daniel L. Bennett (Florida State University); Hugo J. Faria (University of Miami); James D. Gwartney (Florida State University); Daniel R. Morales (Florida State University)
    Abstract: Existing literature suggests that either colonial settlement conditions or the identity of colonizer were influential in shaping the post-colonial institutional environment, which in turn has impacted long-run economic development, but has treated the two potential identification strategies as substitutes. We argue that the two factors should instead be treated as complementary and develop a novel identification strategy that simultaneously accounts for both settlement conditions and colonizer identity to estimate the potential causal impact of a broad cluster of economic institutions on log real GDP per capita for a sample of former colonies. Using population density in 1500 as a proxy for settlement conditions, we find that the impact of settlement conditions on institutional development is much stronger among former British colonies than colonies of the other major European colonizers. Conditioning on several geographic factors and ethno-linguistic fractionalization, our baseline 2SLS estimates suggest that a standard deviation increase in economic institutions is associated with a three-fourths standard deviations increase in economic development. Our results are robust to a number of additional control variables, country subsample exclusions, and alternative measures of institutions, GDP, and colonizer classifications. We also find evidence that geography exerts both an indirect and direct effect on economic development.
    Keywords: Colonization, Comparative Economic Development, Growth, Geography, Institutions Publication Status: Working Paper
    JEL: F54 O1 O4 P5
    Date: 2016–11–12
  7. By: Accominotti, Olivier
    Abstract: In May-July 1931, a series of financial panics shook Central Europe before spreading to the rest of the world. This paper explores how the 1931 Central European crisis propagated to the London and New York financial centers; it also examines the role of cross-border banking linkages in international crisis transmission. Using archival bank-level data, I document US and British banks' asset-side exposure to the crisis region. The Continental crisis disturbed few US banks but endangered several British financial institutions and triggered severe stress in the London money market. Central European credits were mostly held by large and diversified commercial banks in the United States and by small and geographically specialized financial institutions in Britain. Differences in the market structure of the trade finance industry explain why the 1931 Central European crisis infected London banks but not New York banks.
    Keywords: International Contagion; Cross-Border Banking; Trade Finance; 1931 Crisis
    JEL: F34 G21 N22 N24
    Date: 2016–11
  8. By: Öberg, Stefan (Department of Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Rönnbäck, Klas (Department of Economic History, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: We have created the first longitudinal dataset following European employees of the English Royal African Company during their time in West Africa, 1683–1766. The mortality was catastrophically high with limited geographical differences. Tropical diseases and epidemics thereof, contributed to the high mortality and strong variations over time. The risk was highest for the men who had just arrived from Europe but remained high also after they had spent several years on the coast. The death rate of the Europeans was increased by both the share of newcomers and by the total number of men present on the coast.
    Keywords: Economic History; Mortality; West Africa; Pre-colonial; “White Man’s Grave”
    JEL: J10 N37
    Date: 2016–11–22
  9. By: Laurent Bibard (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School)
    Abstract: Alexandre Kojève thought suffers from the provocative way the philosopher initially insisted on the notion of End of History. Alexandre Kojève philosophical enquiry fairly overcomes this notion, towards a comprehensive understanding of the whole human life. This understanding particularly involves a breakthrough concerning the understanding of the most advanced sciences of our time. Understanding Kojeve thought consequently demands not only to understand his thought on the final historical Law (see An Outline of a Phenomenology of Right), but what Kojève called the “objective reality” as well.
    Abstract: La pensée d’Alexandre Kojève souffre du malentendu initial que provoqua l’insistance du philosophe sur la Fin de l’Histoire. L’interrogation philosophique de Kojève déborde plus que largement cette question, en direction d’une compréhension totale de l’homme et du « monde où l’on vit », compréhension impliquant une épistémologie fondamentale propre à éclairer le devenir des sciences les plus avancées de notre temps. C’est donc à la fois comme pensée du Droit ultime de l’Histoire (cf Esquisse d’une phénoménologie du Droit) et de ce que Kojève appelle la « Réalité objective », que la pensée du philosophe qui se disait sage gagne à être abordée pour être comprise.
    Keywords: Kojeve,History,Law,Objective reality,Time,Droit,Histoire,Réalité objective,Temps
    Date: 2016–07
  10. By: Luis Moreno
    Abstract: Has the financial crisis fundamentally weakened Europe’s welfare states? This paper assesses the development of welfare states in Europe in the post-war period. During such a period three distinct ‘ages’ of welfare can be identified: a ‘Golden Age’ which ended in the mid-1970s, a ‘Silver Age’ which ran from the 1970s until the financial crisis, and a ‘Bronze Age’ in the period after the crisis. It is argued that in each ‘age’ the stability of welfare states has been challenged. Doubts raised now on how to ensure that the welfare states of the future can to meet their commitments of the past. The paper elaborates of the feeling that the current Bronze Age of welfare may just be the prelude to the return of prehistoric social Europe.
    Date: 2016–01
  11. By: Paul C. Dower (Florida International University); Evgeny Finkel (George Washington University); Scott Gehlbach (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Steven Nafziger (Williams College)
    Abstract: We explore the relationship between capacity for collective action and representation in autocracies with data from Imperial Russia. Our primary empirical exercise relates peasant representation in new institutions of local self-government to the frequency of peasant unrest in the decade prior to reform. To correct for measurement error in the unrest data and other sources of endogeneity, we exploit idiosyncratic variation in two determinants of peasant unrest: the historical incidence of serfdom and religious polarization. We find that peasants were granted less representation in districts with more frequent unrest in preceding years—a relationship consistent with the AcemogluRobinson model of political transitions and inconsistent with numerous other theories of institutional change. At the same time, we observe patterns of redistribution in subsequent years that are inconsistent with the commitment mechanism central to the Acemoglu-Robinson model. Building on these results, we discuss possible directions for future theoretical work.
    Date: 2016–10
  12. By: Bertocchi, Graziella
    Abstract: The slave trades out of Africa represent one of the most significant forced migration experiences in history. In this paper I illustrate their long-term consequences on contemporaneous socio-economic outcomes, drawing from my own previous work on the topic and from an extensive review of the available literature. I first consider the influence of the slave trade on the"sending" countries in Africa, with attention to their economic, institutional, demographic, and social implications. Next I evaluate the consequences of the slave trade on the "receiving" countries in the Americas. Here I distinguish between the case of Latin America and that of the United States. Overall, I show that the slave trades exert a lasting impact along several contemporaneous socio-economic dimensions and across diverse areas of the world.
    Date: 2016–11
  13. By: Okoye, Dozie; Pongou, Roland; Yokossi, Tite
    Abstract: We examine Fogel's influential hypothesis that new transportation technologies may be dispensable if pre-existing technologies are viable or can simply be improved. Exploiting the construction of colonial railroads in Nigeria, we find that the railway has large long-lasting impacts on individual and local development in the North, but virtually no impact in the South neither in the short run nor in the long run. This heterogeneous impact of the railway can be accounted for by the level of pre-railway access to ports of export. Consistent with Fogel's argument, the railway did not transform areas that had viable transportation alternatives for exporting purposes. Using information on changes in shipping costs and quantities, we highlight the importance of opportunity costs to the adoption and impact of new transportation investments.
    Keywords: Fogel's Hypothesis, Colonial Investments, Railway, Africa, Development, Nigeria
    JEL: J0 J00 N0 N00 N7 N77 N9 O1
    Date: 2016–11–25
  14. By: Jordan Claridge
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of demesnes – the farms of lords, as opposed to the lands of their peasant tenants – in the trade of agricultural horses in medieval England. The introduction of horse power is recognised to have been a major factor in the development of the medieval English economy, increasing labour productivity in farming and the efficiency of overland transport, but the infrastructures through which these animals were produced and distributed has remained poorly understood. This paper uses a national sample of over 300 manorial accounts from c.1300 to assess the role of demesnes in the production and distribution of working horses. It finds that demesnes were significant net consumers of horses, primarily relying upon the market for their supply. This illustrates that there was a well established market for these animals by c.1300, but also that these large institutional farms did not breed enough horses to sustain their own demand, let alone a surplus that could have supplied the market. Demesnes (and their managers) did, however, fill an important distributive role in the trade of agricultural horses by acting, perhaps inadvertently, as ‘middle men’ in marshaling the various channels of work horse acquisition and dispersion.
    Keywords: Trade; Commercialization; Market Integration; Horses; Medieval England; Medieval Economy; Economic History; Social History
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2016–11
  15. By: Amanda Gregg (Middlebury College); Steven Nafziger (Williams College)
    Abstract: We investigate the financing of corporations in industrialization’s early stages. A new balance sheet database featuring all Imperial Russian corporations in 1914 suggests that Russian corporations exhibited considerable financial flexibility. We emphasize financing differences between two types of Russian corporations: share partnerships and A-corporations. Share partnerships issued greater dividends as a proportion of share capital or profits, were less likely to issue bonds, and had larger accounts payable. Financial strategies varied with age, size, and sector in a manner consistent with modern corporate finance theories. This optimistic assessment suggests that absence of low-cost incorporation impeded Russian industrial and economic development.
    Date: 2016–08
  16. By: Collet, Stéphanie; Oosterlinck, Kim
    Abstract: This paper exploits a unique historical episode to quantify the impact of ethics on sovereign bond prices. In 1906 the Russian government floated a bond in Paris to cover the costs of its war against Japan but also to raise money to crush the political movements wishing to reform Russia's political system. Issued without parliamentary consent, this loan met with fierce opposition. Press campaigns in Great Britain, France and Germany denounced its odious character. Using an original database this paper shows that market participants required a substantial premium to hold the "unethical" odious bond. This premium was especially high when the bond was issued, and protests and campaigns were waged against it. The premium diminished once the press campaigns stopped. It remained nonetheless significant, suggesting that ethics have a lasting effect on investors' willingness to buy odious bonds.
    Keywords: Ethics; Financial history; Odious debt; Repudiation; Russia; Sovereign debt
    JEL: F34 G12 G15 N23
    Date: 2016–11
  17. By: Sumner La Croix (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii)
    Abstract: Fourie and Green (this journal, 2015) construct estimates of the Khoikhoi population over the 1652-1780 period using benchmarks for the initial and terminal populations and punctuated population declines during two smallpox epidemics. I provide a brief survey of the history of Khoi population estimates and conclude that several factors point to a higher rate of population decline between 1652 and 1723 and a smaller rate of decline between 1723 and 1780 than specified by Fourie and Green. I provide a revised series of Khoi population estimates that uses the Fourie-Green methodology while incorporating a new terminal population benchmark and qualitative evidence pointing to a higher rate of population decline in the 1652-1723 period.
    Date: 2016–11
  18. By: Gabriel Mathy (American University); Herman O. Stekler (The George Washington University)
    Abstract: How was the Great Depression viewed in real time? This paper yields a new perspective on this question by quantifying the qualitative statements of economic analysts in the business press and at the Federal Reserve Board. We compare the statements of economic analysts about current and future conditions to what actually happened to the American economy in the Great Depression. While Depression-era economic forecasters were able to accurately assess what was happening contemporaneously in the economy, forecasters were persistently optimistic that “the corner had been turned” and that a strong recovery was imminent even as the economy continued to decline. This optimism was based on the use of analogies and rules of thumb which were no longer applicable.
    Keywords: Great Depression, Qualitative Forecasts, Business Expectations
    Date: 2016–11
  19. By: Mark Carlson; Burcu Duygan-Bump
    Abstract: This note describes the tools used by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement monetary policy in the 1920s and the degree to which changes in these tools were transmitted to private money markets. In doing so, we hope to provide some historical perspective to the renewed debate around monetary policy frameworks and toolkits.
    Date: 2016–11–22
  20. By: Darío Indalecio Restrepo
    Abstract: Nadie escapa a su tiempo y el tiempo todo lo transforma, las condiciones de existencia, los valores y las posturas subjetivas, así como las teóricas a partir de las cuales se vive y se interpreta la realidad. Los cambios de apreciación son desechados por algunos, por disolutos, confusos y faltos de referentes certeros; mientras que otros acogen la novedad por su apertura a otros mundos, vivencias y posibilidades. El debate sobre la posmodernidad no escapa a tal polémica, así como no es posible estar por fuera de la condición posmoderna. A partir de dos pares de conceptos se revisan grandes cambios paradigmáticos en las maneras de vivir, concebir y valorar la historia. De lo estructural a las particularidades y de lo singular a las pluralidades.
    Keywords: Posmodernidad, historia, epistemología.
    JEL: N01 B40 E10 O11 P10
    Date: 2016–11–25
  21. By: Antonio José Heras Martínez (Departamento de Economía Financiera y Contabilidad 1 - Universidad Complutense de Madrid [Madrid]); David Teira (Departamento de Lógica, Historia y Filosofía de la ciencia - UNED - Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia); Pierre-Charles Pradier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Labex ReFi - Université Paris1 - Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: The concept of acturial fairness stems from an Aristotelian tradition in which fairness requires equality between the goods exchanged. When dealing with aleatory contracts, this principle evolved, among medieval scholars, into equality in risk: benefits and losses should be proportional to the risks undertaken. The formalization of this principle gave rise to the concept of mathematical expectation, first implemented in the calculation of the fair price of gambles. The concept of an actuarial fair price was first theoretically articulated in the 17th century as an implementation of this same Aristotelian principle in the field of life insurance. For a practical estimation of fair actuarial prices it was necessary to build mortality tables, assuming that the major risk factor was age. Yet, in the 18th and 19th centuries, we find no agreement among proto-actuaries about the proper construction of these tables. Among the obstacles they found, we want to highlight their early awareness of the possibility of adverse selection: buyers and sellers could manipulate the risk assessment for their own private interests, in a way that would either make fair companies collapse or fair customers be cheated. The paradox in the concept of actuarial fairness is that as soon as it was formally articulated, markets made clear it could never be implemented in actual pricing.
    Abstract: Le concept de justice actuarielle dérive de la tradition aristotélicienne d'après lequel la justice requiert l'égalité entre les biens échangés. Dans le cas de contrats aléatoires, ce principe a évolué, chez les scolastiques médiévaux, vers l'égalité en termes de risque : les gains et les pertes doivent être proportionnels aux risques encourus. La formalisation de ce principe a donné naissance au concept d'espérance mathématique, qui est apparu dans le calcul des chances aux jeux de hasard sous la forme de juste prix. Le concept de prix actuariellement juste découle alors de la mise en œuvre du principe aristotélicien dans le domaine de l'assurance, et notamment de l'assurance-vie. pour l'estimation concrète des primes actuariellement justes, il fallait mettre au point des tables de mortalité et considérer que l'âge constituait le principal facteur de risque. Pourtant, pendant le siècle et demi qui s'achève vers 1830, les proto-actuaires ne s'accordent pas sur les méthodes de construction des tables. Parmi les obstacles à la formulation d'une méthode commune, nous avons voulu souligner l'attention portée très tôt aux problèmes d'antisélection : les acheteurs comme les vendeurs pouvaient manipuler la perception des risques de l'autre partie, de sorte que des compagnies pratiquant des prix justes puissent faire faillite, ou que des clients honnêtes puissent être volés. Le paradoxe du concept de justice actuarielle est donc que les marchés ont montré, dès qu'il a été formulé et calculé, qu'il ne constituerait jamais un prix viable.
    Keywords: actuarial fairness,mathematical expectation,life insurance,annuity,risk,justice actuarielle,espérance mathématique,assurance-vie,rente,risque
    Date: 2016–10
  22. By: Johannes C. Buggle (University of Lausanne); Steven Nafziger (Williams College)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run consequences of Russian serfdom. We use novel data measuring the intensity of labor coercion at the district level in 1861. Our results show that a greater legacy of serfdom is associated with lower economic well-being today. We apply an IV strategy that exploits the transfer of serfs from monastic lands in 1764 to establish causality. Exploring mechanisms, we find a positive correlation between the earlier experience of serfdom and pre-Soviet urbanization and land inequality, with negative implications for human capital investment and agglomeration over the long-run.
    Keywords: Labor Coercion, Serfdom, Development, Russia, Persistence
    JEL: N33 N54 O10 O43
    Date: 2016–10
  23. By: Cristina Mitaritonna; Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Peri
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the impact of an increase in the local supply of immigrants on firms’ outcomes, allowing for heterogeneous effects across firms according to their initial productivity. Using micro-level data on French manufacturing firms spanning the period 1995-2005, we show that a supply-driven increase in the share of foreign-born workers in a French department (a small geographic area) increased the total factor productivity of firms in that department. Immigrants were prevalently highly educated and this effect is consistent with a positive complementarity and spillover effects from their skills. We also find this effect to be significantly stronger for firms with low initial productivity and small size. The positive productivity effect of immigrants was also associated with faster growth of capital, larger exports and higher wages for natives. Highly skilled natives were pushed towards firms that did not hire too many immigrants spreading positive productivity effects to those firms too. Because of stronger effects on smaller and initially less productive firms, the aggregate effects of immigrants at the department level on average productivity and employment was small.
    JEL: E25 F22 J15 J61
    Date: 2016–11
  24. By: Keller, Wolfgang; Shiue, Carol H
    Abstract: This paper focuses on market integration as a mechanism through which institutions affect growth by examining city growth in 19th century Germany, when some cities experienced deep institutional reform as a result of French rule. Employing an instrumental-variables approach, we show evidence for a hierarchy of growth factors in which institutions affect market integration more than market integration affects institutions. It was institutional improvements that were crucial to market integration, rather than just declining transport costs, which increased city growth during this time period. The institutional reforms, however, were transmitted through the mechanism of market integration. This created a much larger impact on city growth compared to the institutional impact independent from the market integration mechanism. The approach we take can be applied to other causes of economic growth.
    Date: 2016–11
  25. By: Karen Clay; Jeff Lingwall; Melvin Stephens, Jr.
    Abstract: This paper uses a new dataset on state compulsory attendance, continuation school, and child labor laws with the 1940 full count Census of Population to estimate the returns to schooling for native-born white men in the 1885-1912 birth cohorts. IV estimates of returns to schooling range from 0.064 to 0.079. Quantile IV estimates show that the returns to schooling were largest for the lowest quantiles, and were generally monotonically decreasing for higher quantiles. These findings suggest that early schooling laws may have contributed to the Great Compression by increasing education levels for white men at the bottom of the distribution.
    JEL: I26 J24 J31 N32
    Date: 2016–11
  26. By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper explores the modes of trading of a trading company and their implications on the risks and returns of trades, focusing on Mitsubishi Corporation in the 1920s. Mitsubishi employed two modes of trades, i.e. proprietary trading and consignment trading, and the former trades accounted for 43.8% of the total trades in 1928. From the original account book of Mitsubishi, I compiled a dataset containing the information of sales and margins at the individual transaction-level. It is revealed that there is substantial difference in the distributions of margin rates between proprietary trading and consignment trading. The distribution of margin rates of the proprietary trading has fat tails both on the left and right sides, and the average margin rate is significantly higher than that of consignment trades. As expected, proprietary trading yielded high risk and high return. The findings of this paper suggests further issues to be explored, including the choice of modes of trading by Mitsubishi and the mechanisms that Mitsubishi controlled the risk accompanying transactions by its own account.
    Date: 2016–11
  27. By: Bignon, Vincent; Vuillemey, Guillaume
    Abstract: We provide the first empirical description of the failure of a derivatives clearinghouse. We use novel, hand-collected, archive data to study risk management incentives by the Paris commodity futures clearinghouse around its failure in 1974. We do not find evidence of lenient risk management during the commodity price boom of 1973-1974. However, we show strong distortions of risk management incentives, akin to risk-shifting, as soon as prices collapsed and a large clearing member approached distress. Distortions persist during the recovery/resolution phase. Theoretically, these distortions suggest that capitalization and governance were weak, but do not imply that moral hazard was significant before the failure. Our findings have implications for the design of clearing institutions, including their default management schemes.
    Keywords: CCP; Central clearing; Collateral; Derivatives; Failure; Resolution
    JEL: G23
    Date: 2016–11
  28. By: Gigante, Anna Azzurra
    Abstract: This paper proposes a critical review of some of the main applications of path-dependence in economic theory. In particular, it calls attention on those theories clarifying the micro-foundations of path-dependent processes in economics. In the field of innovation, path-dependence shows the endogenous character of technological change, revealing the complex interplay among firm’s structural specificities, irreversibility, creativity, localized learning, externalities, feedbacks and contingent disturbing factors. In cognitive and institutional economics, the path-dependent character of learning processes, shown by cognitive and neurobiological studies, suggests interesting explanations for economic and institutional inefficiency persistence and, in general, for institutional genesis and evolution processes. Micro-foundations of economic path-dependence offer new opportunities for further extending theoretical and empirical economic research. For instance, they could contribute to extend economic self-organization approach, which has focused on the non-linear character of economic dynamic processes and has described economic systems as dissipative and entropic structures. In this sense, path-dependence represents a fertile tool for further clarifying economic and institutional dynamics and a precious opportunity of interdisciplinary research.
    Keywords: path-dependence; endogenous change; non-ergodic process; knowledge production; innovation economics; cognitive economics; institutions; neural structures; self-organization; dissipative systems; entropy law
    JEL: A12 B25 O31
    Date: 2016–11–28
  29. By: Andrew Seltzer; Jeff Borland
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of the Victorian Factory and Shops Act the first minimum wage law in Australia. The Act differed from modern minimum wage laws in that it established Special Boards, which set trade-specific minimum wage schedules. We use trade level data on average wages, employment, and other outcomes to examine the effects of changes in minimum wages. Although the minimum wages were binding, we find that the effects on employment and other outcomes were modest. We speculate that this was partly because the Special Boards, which were comprised mostly of employers and union officials, followed labour market conditions when setting wages for their trades.
    Keywords: Minimum wages, Australia, Factory and Shops Act
    JEL: J38 N37
    Date: 2016–12
  30. By: Zlatko Nikoloski
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between democracy andincome inequality in long- and short/medium-run. Using appropriate econometrictechniques on both, averaged and panel data for the period 1962-2006, we findno evidence that democracy is associated with tighter income distribution. Ourresults are robust to different specification techniques, to exclusion ofdeveloped as well as the transition countries. We speculate that the different(and opposing) transmission mechanisms, as well as the nature and thedefinition of the democracy variables (both Polity IV and Freedom House)influence our results. Improvement of conceptualization and measurement of democracycould shed further light onto the democracy-inequality nexus.
    Keywords: democracy; income inequality; political economy; economic development; developing countries; World
    JEL: F54 O15 O47
    Date: 2015
  31. By: Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez (Banco de la República de Colombia); José E. Gómez-González (Banco de la República de Colombia); Jorge Hirs-Garzón (Banco de la República de Colombia); Adolfo Meisel-Roca (Banco de la República de Colombia); Jair N. Ojeda-Joya (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: Desde 1980, el Banco de la República ha contribuido a la formación de los economistas del país a través de su programa de becas para estudios de doctorado y maestría en las mejores universidades del mundo. Este documento hace una descripción de este programa, caracterizando los beneficiarios del mismo en referencia a su distribución por género, universidad de origen y universidad de destino, entre otras variables. Asimismo presenta un análisis costo – beneficio de dicho programa, mostrando su alta rentabilidad en términos privados y sociales. Classification JEL: A2; D6; H5
    Keywords: Programa de becas para estudios en el exterior; análisis costo-beneficio; Banco de la República; Colombia
    Date: 2016–12
  32. By: Kathleen Kahle; René M. Stulz
    Abstract: We examine the current state of the American public corporation and how it has evolved over the last forty years. There are fewer public corporations now than forty years ago, but they are much older and larger. They invest differently, as the importance of R&D investments has grown relative to capital expenditures. On average, public firms have record high cash holdings and in most recent years they have more cash than long-term debt. They are less profitable than they used to be and profits are more concentrated, as the top 100 firms now account for most of the net income of American public firms. Accounting statements are less informative about the performance and the value of firms because firms increasingly invest in intangible assets that do not appear on their balance sheets. Firms’ total payouts to shareholders as a percent of net income are at record levels, suggesting that firms either lack opportunities to invest or have poor incentives to invest. The credit crisis appears to leave few traces on the course of American public corporations.
    JEL: D22 G24 G30
    Date: 2016–11
  33. By: Wohlrabe, Klaus; Gnewuch, Matthias
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between article title characteristics and citations in economics using a large data set from Web of Science. Our results suggest that articles with a short title that also contains a non-alphanumeric character achieve a higher citation count.
    Keywords: articles, title characteristics, citations, non-alphanumeric characters, title length
    JEL: A12 A14
    Date: 2016–11–30
  34. By: Naveen Srinivasan (Madras School of Economics); Pratik Mitra (Madras School of Economics)
    Abstract: Two contrasting views have dominated research on unemployment during the interwar years. The conventional Keynesian view attributes the persistence of high unemployment in the UK and US during the interwar period to sluggish adjustment of nominal wages to demand shocks. In contrast, equilibrium models of unemployment suggest that the natural rate is itself endogenous, determined by technological, institutional, and demographic factors, and is therefore not necessarily constant over time. According to this view unemployment may remain elevated because some (or all) of the driving forces are persisting. How do we discriminate between these competing explanations? To this end, we estimate a timevarying parameter (TVP) model of the unemployment rate for the UK and US. Kalman filter estimates of the natural rate of unemployment suggest that most macroeconomic activity during the interwar period reflects persistent movements in steady state, not from steady state. We conclude that the observed persistence in unemployment appears to be consistent with multiple equilibria models and models with an endogeneous natural rate.
    Keywords: Interwar Unemployment; Persistence; Natural rate of unemployment; Kalman Filter Classification-E24, J64
  35. By: Vasilios Plakandaras (Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece); Juncal Cunado (Department of Economics, University of Navarra, Spain); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha USA, and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, UK)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes to what extent a selection of leading indicators are able to forecast U.S. recessions by means of both dynamic probit models and Support Vector Machines (SVM) models, using monthly data from January 1871 to June 2016. The results suggest that the probit models foresee U.S. recession periods more closely than SVM models for up to 6 months ahead, while the SVM models are more accurate at longer horizons. Furthermore, SVM models appear to discriminate between recessions and tranquil periods better than probit models do. Finally, the most accurate forecasting models include oil, stock returns and the term spread as leading indicators.
    Keywords: Dynamic Probit Models, Support Vector Machines, U.S. Recessions
    JEL: C53 E32 E37
    Date: 2016–11

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