nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒11‒06
24 papers chosen by

  1. Monetary Policy Cooperation and Coordination: An Historical Perspective on the Importance of Rules By Michael Bordo; Catherine R. Schenk
  2. Knowledge Elites and Modernization: Evidence from Revolutionary France By Mara P. Squicciarini; Nico Voigtländer
  3. Constructing a Myth that Ricardo Was the Father of the Ricardian Model of International Trade: A Reconsideration of Torrens f Principles of Comparative Advantage and Gain-from-trade By Taro Hisamatsu
  4. The Cultural diffusion of the fertility transition: Evidence from internal migration in 19th century France By Guillaume Daudin; Raphaël Franck; Hillel Rapoport
  5. Political Regime and Social Spending in Spain: A Serial Temporal Analysis(1850-2000) By Sergio Espuelas
  6. Diversified Business Groups in the West: History and Theory By Asli M. Colpan; Takashi Hikino
  7. How secular is the current economic stagnation? By Maria Roubtsova
  8. Comment: Inferring Trade Costs from Trade Booms and Trade Busts By Guillaume Corlay; Stéphane Dupraz; Claire Labonne; Anne Muller; Guillaume Daudin
  9. Cross-checking the Sound database with the French Balance du Commerce data By Loïc Charles; Guillaume Daudin
  10. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts By Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
  11. New Economic Geography: history and debate By José M. Gaspar
  12. 戦前日本における銀行業の産業組織と産業・企業金融 By Tetsuji Okazaki
  13. Chaos in G7 Stock Markets using Over One Century of Data: A Note By Aviral Kumar Tiwari; Rangan Gupta
  14. East Side Story: Historical Pollution and Persistent Neighborhood Sorting By Stephan Heblich; Alex Trew; Yanos Zylberberg
  15. The debt of the Hôtel-Dieu de Paris from 1660 to 1690: a testbed for sovereign default By Pierre-Charles Pradier
  16. The Japanese photo shop industry and its adaptive process toward digitization By KODAMA, Koichiro
  17. Property Rights, Labor Mobility and Collectivization: The Impact of Institutional Changes on China’s Agriculture in 1950-1978 By Sun, Shengmin; Lopez, Rigoberto A.; Xiaoou Liu
  18. Adenauer and the West German Nuclear Problem By Yoko Iwama
  19. Elite Identity and Political Accountability: A Tale of Ten Islands By Jean-Paul Carvalho; Christian Dippel
  20. Church Membership and Social Insurance: Evidence from the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 By Ager, Philipp; Hansen, Casper Worm; Lønstrup, Lars
  21. Le « miracle Poincaré » et la confiance hiérarchique à l’aune de théories gramsciennes. Tentative d’explication et de développement By Nicolas Pinsard
  22. Business Income and Business Taxation in the United States Since the 1950s By Conor Clarke; Wojciech Kopczuk
  23. Breve Storia della Programmazione Matematica in Italia By Giorgio Giorgi
  24. ¿Tenemos algo que aprender de Keynes ahora? By Antonio Torrero Mañas

  1. By: Michael Bordo; Catherine R. Schenk
    Abstract: This paper was prepared for the conference "International†Monetary Stability: Past, Present, and Future, held at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University on May 5, 2016.
    Date: 2016–05
  2. By: Mara P. Squicciarini; Nico Voigtländer
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of knowledge elites in modernization. At the eve of the French Revolution, in the spring of 1789, King Louis XVI solicited lists of grievances (Cahiers de Doléances), in which the public could express complaints and suggestions for reforms of the Ancien Regime. We show that the demand for mass education and democratization was particularly high in regions that had a thick knowledge elite, measured by subscribers to the famous Encyclopédie in the 1770s. Historical evidence suggests that this pattern is driven by the spirit of enlightenment of French knowledge elites. Pre-revolution literacy, in contrast, is not correlated with demand for mass education or with the density of knowledge elites. After the French Revolution, knowledge elites played a key role in implementing schooling reforms at the local level. We show that by the mid-19th century, schooling rates were significantly higher in regions with thicker knowledge elites. The same is true of other proxies for modernization, such as association membership, Republican votes, and the share of French-speaking pupils. Our results highlight an important interaction between local culture (the spirit of enlightenment) and nation-wide institutions in economic development: the French Revolution opened a window of opportunity for local elites to pursue their agenda of modernization.
    JEL: J24 N13 O14
    Date: 2016–10
  3. By: Taro Hisamatsu (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: Historians of economic thought have often pointed out that Ricardo fs famous England-Portugal model differs from the gRicardian model h presented in modern international economics textbooks. This paper argues that the erroneous belief that David Ricardo was the father of the Ricardian model might have arisen from Robert Torrens f own explanations of comparative advantage and his repeated claims. The principle of comparative advantage put forward by Torrens has much in common with the modern Ricardian model. In the early twentieth century, distinguished writers of international trade theory devoted their attention to a great controversy among famous economists in the authoritative The Economic Journal about who should be considered the true father of comparative advantage, Ricardo or Torrens, and concluded that Ricardo, in his text, proposed the same principles of comparative advantage as Torrens had presented.
    Date: 2016–09
  4. By: Guillaume Daudin (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa-DIAL UMR IRD 225); Raphaël Franck (Bar Ilan University, Department of Economics, 52900 Ramat Gan, Israel, and Marie Curie Fellow at the Department of Economics at Brown University, Providence 02912 RI, USA.); Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: France experienced the demographic transition before richer and more educated countries. This paper offers a novel explanation for this puzzle that emphasizes the diffusion of culture and information through internal migration. It tests how migration affected fertility by building a decennial bilateral migration matrix between French regions for 1861-1911. The identification strategy uses exogenous variation in transportation costs resulting from the construction of railways. The results suggest the convergence towards low birth rates can be explained by the diffusion of low-fertility norms by migrants, especially by migrants to and from Paris.
    Keywords: Fertility, France, Demographic Transition, Migration.
    JEL: J13 N33 O15
    Date: 2016–05
  5. By: Sergio Espuelas (Universitat de Barcelona and Centre d’Estudis Antoni de Capmany, Spain)
    Abstract: In the last 150 years, Spain has had a turbulent political history. What has been the impact on social policy? Democracy had a positive effect on both the levels and the long-run trend of social spending. In fact, the transition from a traditional regime (with low social spending levels) to a modern regime (with high social spending levels) started with the advent of democracy in 1931. Franco’s dictatorship, however, reversed this trend change, leading to a delay in the definitive growth of social spending in Spain. At the same time, the effect of left-wing parties was statistical significant only in the 30s (before the Keynesian consensus) and during the Restoration period (when the preferences of the lower income groups were systematically ignored).
    Keywords: Welfare State, Dictatorship, Democracy, Redistribution, Spain, History of Social Policy
    JEL: I30 H53 N30
    Date: 2016–10
  6. By: Asli M. Colpan (Harvard Business School); Takashi Hikino (Kyoto University, Graduate School of Management)
    Abstract: This chapter examines the historical origins, evolutionary paths and long-term resilience of diversified business groups in contemporary developed economies of Western Europe, North America and Oceania. It aims to come up with a new theoretical understanding of diversified business groups and other comparable models of corporate organizations by broadening the analytical perspectives of the earlier approaches on the subject in terms of longitudinal and geographical scope. We suggest that the straightforward association of the general environmental settings of market immaturities and institutional voids with the existence of diversified business groups is rather incomplete in reality. Our findings draw attention to the importance of examining the national differences and historical shifts in larger contexts in understanding the evolution of different varieties of diversified business groups. We further argue that diversified business groups are not simply transitionary organizations that worked well only at the early phase of modern economic growth and shall not necessarily become an obstacle for dynamic development as the economies mature. Our research shows that while political institutions and capital markets have become powerful agents to dismantle those groups, a decisive factor to understand the resilience as well as effectiveness of that corporate model examine remains inside the business group itself. As the business groups flexibly evolve, they can adopt and fit in to remain as a viable organizational model even in mature markets.
    Date: 2016–10
  7. By: Maria Roubtsova (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))
    Abstract: From the burst of the dotcom bubble in 2000, until the global financial crisis that started in August 2007, the global economy was growing. During that phase, macroeconomics went through an era of general optimism around the idea of having reached a great moderation, with high steady growth and low stable inflation. Central bankers thought they managed to dampen the economic cycles. This era came to an end following the meltdown which started with the global financial crisis of 2007. And as among economic agents, macroeconomists’ general state of mind went from optimism to pessimism. Almost ten years since the beginning of the crisis, growth is not back to its pre-crisis trends. Therefore, macroeconomists are debating the notion of a secular stagnation. Is the economy on a long-term stagnation trend, if so, for what reasons, and how to address this situation? This paper offers a critical review of the debates among macroeconomists around this notion of secular stagnation, a concept which was invented by Alvin Hansen following the global economic crisis of the 1930s, and was brought back into the public debate largely by Lawrence Summers since the end of 2013. This literature review starts with a brief synthesis of the original debate about secular stagnation, launched by Hansen in 1938, and ended in the mid-1950s, since these debates inspired contemporary theorists. The second part highlights the main elements of neoclassical explanations for secular stagnation. The third part focuses on the Minskian idea of the end of a debt super-cycle. The last part offers a contemporary reading of the unleashing of the contradictions of capitalism, and the tendency of mature capitalism to generate oligopolies, as a cause for long stagnation.
    Keywords: macroeconomics, secular stagnation, balance sheet recession, financialization, private debt, growth and distribution
    JEL: E39 E44 E66 G01
    Date: 2016–10
  8. By: Guillaume Corlay (ENSAE, French National School of Statistics and Economic Administration); Stéphane Dupraz (Columbia University, 10025 New York NY, USA); Claire Labonne (Paris School of Economics / Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne – ACPR - Banque de France); Anne Muller (Sciences Po, Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques (OFCE)); Guillaume Daudin (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa-DIAL UMR IRD 225)
    Abstract: Jacks et al. (2011) offer an alternative to price gaps to quantify trade costs. Implementing a method which consists in deducing international trade costs from trade flows, they argue that the reduction in trade costs was the main driving force of trade growth during the first globalization (1870-1913), whereas economic expansion was the main driving force during the second globalization (1950-2000). We argue that this important result is driven by the use of an ad hoc aggregation method. What Jacks et al. (2011) capture is the difference in the relative starting trade of dyads experiencing faster trade growth in the first and second globalization. More generally, we cast doubts on the possibility to reach conclusions of such nature with a method that infers trade costs from trade flows, and then uses these costs to explain trade flows. We argue that it can only rephrase the information already contained in openness ratios.
    Keywords: Trade costs, globalization, gravity model, aggregation, structure effect.
    JEL: F14 N70
    Date: 2016–08
  9. By: Loïc Charles (Paris 8, Ined); Guillaume Daudin (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa-DIAL UMR IRD 225)
    Keywords: eighteenth century, international trade statistics, France, Baltic, Sound, globalization, economic history
    JEL: N73 N01
    Date: 2016–09
  10. By: Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
    Abstract: In advanced economies, a century-long near-stable ratio of credit to GDP gave way to rapid financialization and surging leverage in the last forty years. This "financial hockey stick" coincides with shifts in foundational macroeconomic relationships be- yond the widely-noted return of macroeconomic fragility and crisis risk. Leverage is correlated with central business cycle moments, which we can document thanks to a decade-long international and historical data collection effort. More financialized economies exhibit somewhat less real volatility, but also lower growth, more tail risk, as well as tighter real-real and real-financial correlations. International real and finan- cial cycles also cohere more strongly. The new stylized facts that we discover should prove fertile ground for the development of a new generation of macroeconomic models with a prominent role for financial factors.
    Keywords: credit; financial hockey stick; leverage; Macroeconomics; moments
    JEL: E01 E13 E30 E32 E44 E51 F42 F44 G12
    Date: 2016–10
  11. By: José M. Gaspar (Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-464 Porto PORTUGAL)
    Abstract: This paper aims to synthesize the main conceptual and ontological discussion around the field of New Economic Geography. It starts out by laying down the fundamental reasons and motivations that led to the surge of New Economic Geography and provides the background in adjacent fields of economic theory which made this possible. I then provide an overall assessment of the state of the art in NEG and track the intellectual evolution of the field since the nineties up to the present, focusing on the intrinsic criticism that it has been subject to throughout its history. This criticism has its roots in the different ontological conceptions of geography (space) and history (time), as well on the methodological differences, between economists and geographers. Another concern of this paper is to analyze the evolution of the debate and communication between geographical economists and economic geographers.
    Keywords: economic geography; geography and history; ontological debate;
    JEL: N7 N9 R12
    Date: 2016–10
  12. By: Tetsuji Okazaki
    Abstract: This paper selectively surveys the literature on the financial history of prewar Japan, focusing on the role of banks in industrial and corporate financing and the characteristics of the industrial organization in the banking sector, and adds some supplementary analyses. The banking sector in prewar Japan is characterized by the multilayered structure and the close relationship between banks and non-financial firms, called organ bank relationship. Whereas the organ bank relationship enabled related firms with lower profitability and smaller internal fund to borrow money more easily, it tended to hurt the profitability of banks and stability of the banking system. In the 1920s, when the banking system became unstable, a large wave of bank exits through mergers and closures occurred. Over this exit wave, the organ bank relationship waned through selection of unsound banks and change in the governance structure of banks. Meanwhile, this bank exit wave changed the fund allocation in local financial markets, which in turn affected the local industries.
    Date: 2016–10
  13. By: Aviral Kumar Tiwari (Center for Energy and Sustainable Development (CESD), Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: In this paper we test for chaos on historical daily and monthly datasets stock returns for G7 countries spanning over one century. Applying the 0-1 test proposed by Gottwald and Melbourne (2005) and the recent test developed by BenSaïda (2012), which is powerful in detecting chaotic dynamics, we find that: (a) It is better to denoise the data before testing for chaos; (b) In general, chaos is observed for all countries when we denoise the data based on both tests, and; (c) Strong evidence of chaotic behavior is observed in Canada, France and the UK.
    Keywords: Chaos, G7 countries, stock returns
    JEL: C12 C45
    Date: 2016–10
  14. By: Stephan Heblich; Alex Trew; Yanos Zylberberg
    Abstract: Why are the East sides of former industrial cities like London or New York poorer and more deprived? We argue that this observation is the most visible consequence of the historically unequal distribution of air pollutants across neighborhoods. In this paper, we geolocate nearly 5,000 industrial chimneys in 70 English cities in 1880 and use an atmospheric dispersion model to recreate the spatial distribution of pollution. First, individual-level census data show that pollution induced neighborhood sorting during the course of the nineteenth century. Historical pollution patterns explain up to 15% of within-city deprivation in 1881. Second, these equilibria persist to this day even though the pollution that initially caused them has waned. A quantitative model shows the role of non-linearities and tipping-like dynamics in such persistence.
    Keywords: Neighborhood sorting, historical pollution, deprivation, persistence, environmental disamenity
    JEL: R23 Q53 N90
    Date: 2016–11
  15. By: Pierre-Charles Pradier (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne & LabEx RéFi)
    Abstract: On considère généralement que les rentes viagères ne sont pas vendues à leur prix actuariel au dix septième siècle, ce qui suffirait à expliquer la banqueroute de l'Hôtel-Dieu de Paris en 1689. Des sources nouvelles permettent de montrer que l'évaluation des rentes à partir de 1668 est compatible avec une actualisation au taux légal de la table de mortalité due à Deparcieux (1746). Les problèmes de l'institution résultaient en fait d'un provisionnement incorrect des sommes à payer plutôt que d'une erreur de tarification. L'histoire serait anecdotique, si le roi de France n'avait pas décidé au même moment d'emprunter avec des instruments contingents. Les difficultés de l'Hôtel-Dieu permettent de comprendre que les plans de la couronne ne sont pas soutenables. Ils sont donc conçus pour « faire sortir l'argent », ce qui se traduit par une éviction des actifs offerts par l'Hôtel-Dieu
    Keywords: life annuities; financial revolution; early modern Europe; hospitality
    JEL: G22 N13 N23 N43
    Date: 2016–08
  16. By: KODAMA, Koichiro
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to determine how photo shop industry in Japan continue to exist despite the digitization of photography. In this paper, we focus the problem why digital mini-labs were diffused faster than DSCs, despite following three obstructive factors: the enormity of investment; uncertainty regarding the digitization of photography; conservativeness of the photo shop industry. We find following mechanism from case analysis: in contrast to other photo shops, Kitamura especially recognized the digitization of photography as an urgent and crucial problem, and decided to introduce digital mini-labs into all of its photo shops; Kitamura’s entrepreneurial action triggered its rivals to follow suit; digital mini-labs became the standard solution for the problem of digitization for the entire photo shop industry; the emergence of standard solution changed the perspectives of other photo shops that were unaware of the threat.
    Date: 2016–10
  17. By: Sun, Shengmin (Shandong University); Lopez, Rigoberto A. (University of Connecticut); Xiaoou Liu (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of property rights, labor mobility barriers and degrees of collectivization on China’s agricultural growth in 1950-1978. Using a semi-Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis, we find that collective production with free labor mobility and private property rights was the most efficient institutional setting. Although deviations from the two institutions resulted in a decline in agricultural production, the loss in agricultural production from labor mobility barriers was up to five times greater than loss from depriving farmers of private property rights.
    Keywords: economic growth, institutions, agriculture, property rights, labor mobility, China
    Date: 2016–04
  18. By: Yoko Iwama (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)
    Abstract: Konrad Adenauer, the first West German Chancellor who was in office from 1949 to 1963, is said to have sought nuclear weapons for his country. But the truth is not that simple. Adenauer had renounced production of ABC weapons at the time of the signing of the Paris Treaties in 1954, and he never stepped out of this pledge. Instead, he adjusted his country to the nuclear age within that limit. First he allowed the American troops in West Germany to bring in nuclear weapons almost without any system of prior consultation. Next he put his country into the NATO nuclear stockpile system, by equipping the West German Bundeswehr with nuclear capable weapons. The nuclear weapons(warheads) to these weapons were usually under the control of American troops, and were passed onto the Bundeswehr at wartime. He also responded positively to the NATO multilateral force (MLF) plans, but also never ceased to look for an eEuropean option. f The reason for this was that he thought in a world in which only the US and USSR possessed nuclear weapons, Europe will no longer possess the ability to decide its own fate, and may become an object of deals between the two superpowers. But the American reaction to the Franco-German Elysee Treaty showed how difficult such an option was.
    Date: 2016–10
  19. By: Jean-Paul Carvalho; Christian Dippel
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between elite identity and political outcomes from a theoretical and empirical perspective. Elite members with distinct economic and social identities vote for or against an extractive policy, which benefits them at the expense of the citizenry. Voting is disciplined by the threat of citizen revolt, with some elite members being more accountable than others. The relationship between elite identity and political accountability is complex and non-monotonic. As their share in the elite grows, accountable elite members are more likely to vote for extractive policies. When the elite becomes too accountable as a whole, elite members may pursue extractive policies by altering the institutional framework. The model is grounded in an empirical exploration of ten British Caribbean sugar colonies where the emancipation of slaves in 1838 created a mixed local and British elite and for which we have unique data on elite composition and voting. Voting behavior depends on an individual's identity and the overall composition of the elite in a manner predicted by the theory. In all but one of the islands elites eventually dissolved their legislative assemblies, ceding their formal powers to the British Crown. Consistent with the theory, we find evidence linking this to rising accountability of the islands' elites.
    JEL: D71 N66 O43
    Date: 2016–10
  20. By: Ager, Philipp (Department of Business and Economics); Hansen, Casper Worm (Department of Economics); Lønstrup, Lars (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: Religious communities are key providers of social insurance. This paper focuses on the devastating impact of the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 to investigate how an increase in the demand for social insurance affects church membership. We find a significant increase in church membership in flooded counties. This effect is stronger in counties with severe economic losses and where access to credit was limited. We also document that fundamental denominations gained more members in flooded counties, which is consistent with the theory of club goods emphasizing the efficient provision of mutual insurance in stricter religious communities.
    Keywords: Religion; Informal insurance; Club goods; Natural disasters
    JEL: D70 H40 Z12
    Date: 2016–10–28
  21. By: Nicolas Pinsard (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))
    Abstract: Le Cartel des Gauches resta au gouvernement de juin 1924 à juillet 1926, mois au cours duquel R. Poincaré revint aux affaires. Trois jours après que l’on sut que R. Poincaré avait accepté de diriger le gouvernement, le franc s’apprécia de 20 % par rapport à la livre sterling. Ce fut la fin de la crise du franc sur le marché des changes, et cela sans qu’aucune annonce politique soit faite, et avant même la déclaration d’investiture du gouvernement. Comment expliquer le « miracle Poincaré » ? La monnaie est « un lien de confiance », elle se décline en trois types de confiance : la confiance méthodique, éthique et hiérarchique. Or, la crise du franc, lors du gouvernement du Cartel, est essentiellement due à une perte de confiance hiérarchique en ce gouvernement. En effet, celui-ci n’était plus capable d’assurer son rôle de souverain monétaire, c’est-à-dire garantir la valeur du franc. Or, la monnaie est ce qui représente symboliquement l’unité d’une communauté de compte, et si celle-ci entre en crise, c’est la communauté en elle-même qui est fragilisée. Ainsi, il y eut une perte de confiance hiérarchique dans la monnaie. Comment expliquer que la crise économique ait suffisamment d’ampleur pour projeter dans la sphère politique des problèmes initialement économiques ? Comment s’opère le passage d’une crise économique à une crise politique qui se traduit par une perte de confiance hiérarchique ? Comment expliquer l’arrêt de la crise monétaire, à la fois économique et politique, et, in fine, comment la confiance hiérarchique a-t-elle été recouvrée, alors que ce phénomène de crise est auto-entraînant ? Gramsci et notamment ses concepts de crises organique et hégémonique, et de césarisme seront mobilisés pour répondre à ces problématiques. Le concept de crise organique articule le passage de la crise économique à la crise politique. Celui de crise hégémonique donne à voir les enjeux de pouvoir entre différents groupes sociaux. La notion de césarisme permet d’interpréter la cause du renversement soudain de la valeur du franc sur le marché des changes, dans la mesure où le « César » réussit à instrumentaliser la crise organique pour arriver au pouvoir et à l’arrêter lorsqu’il y parvient. Les raisons de la perte de confiance hiérarchique et son recouvrement peuvent alors être éclairées par ces trois concepts gramsciens qui complètent celui de confiance hiérarchique.
    Date: 2016–09
  22. By: Conor Clarke; Wojciech Kopczuk
    Abstract: In theory, the U.S. tax system aims to attribute and tax all business income to individuals. But the tax treatment of this income varies. Pass-through income is taxed when earned; capital-gains income is taxed when realized; dividends when distributed; other forms of business income may escape taxation entirely. Business owners often have control over the timing and character of their income: They can often choose, for example, between reporting business income or deducting it as wages or fringe benefits. And laws change, changing the incentive and ability to shift income between the individual and corporate sectors. We integrate a wide variety of tax data to document the large long-run changes in the structure of business income and business taxation in the United States. These changes include the degree to which business incomes are taxed on a realization versus an accrual basis, the extent to which taxation is deferred, and the share of business income that is ultimately subject to taxation. We highlight the evolving relevance of retained earnings in the changing corporate sector and their relationship to equity values and unrealized capital gains. We also document the evolution of individual income components — profits of pass-through entities, dividends, and capital gains (both taxable gains and those escaping taxation through step-up). As a result of these changes, business incomes are increasingly taxed through personal income taxes instead of a combination of corporate and personal taxes. In particular, this implies that the observability of business incomes on personal income tax returns has improved over time, a fact that has implications for measuring and understanding the income distribution.
    JEL: D31 H25
    Date: 2016–10
  23. By: Giorgio Giorgi (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)
    Date: 2016–10
  24. By: Antonio Torrero Mañas
    Abstract: En este breve ensayo el Pfsor. Torrero plantea la vigencia del pensamiento de Keynes en la actualidad, especialmente en tres puntos: el exceso de ahorro o el déficit de inversión; la existencia de instituciones financieras privadas con sus propias normas y los problemas que se derivan de ello; y, la importancia de la incertidumbre. Este úlimo punto constituye el foco central del ensayo del que se saca la importante conclusión de que es necesario adecuar las instituciones a la aceptación de que la incertidumbre radical existe, y no podemos comportarnos como si fuera posible transformarla en riesgo susceptible de medición. Por cometer este error nos encontramos inmersos todavía en la crisis que comenzó en 2008.
    Keywords: Crisis Financiera, Keynes, Riesgo, Incertidumbre
    Date: 2016–10

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