nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒10‒30
29 papers chosen by

  1. Early globalizations: the integration of Asia in the world economy, 1800–1938 By David Chilosi; Giovanni Federico
  2. Sources of Dualism in Modern Rationalist Thought: Implications for Islamic Economics By Abdulkader Cassim Mahomedy
  3. Brain gain in the age of mass migration By Francesco Giffoni; Matteo Gomellini
  4. The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks: Supplemental Results By Huntington, Hillard
  5. Statistical modeling of stock returns: explanatory or descriptive? A historical survey with some methodological reflections By Phoebe Koundouri; Nikolaos Kourogenis; Nikitas Pittis
  6. Bakhtin in France: A Critical Look at the First French Reviews Appeared in the 1970s By Natalia M. Dolgorukova
  7. Historical Archive of Credit in Italy By Sandra Natoli; Paolo Piselli; Ivan Triglia; Francesco Vercelli
  8. Wilhelm Von Humboldt and Berlin University: a New Look at the Origin of the Humboldt Myth By Oleg Morozov
  9. Why German historicists were wrong to put John Stuart through the Mill. By Phiilippe Gillig
  10. Silver Points, Silver Flows, and the Measure of Chinese Financial Integration By David S. Jacks; Se Yan; Liuyan Zhao
  11. The Role of English Fluency in Migrant Assimilation: Evidence from United States History By Zachary Ward
  12. Distance to the Pre-industrial Technological Frontier and Economic Development By Özak, Ömer
  13. The Origins and Long-Run Consequences of the Division of Labor By Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer
  14. Garegnani on a way to avoid the value capital endowment in Wicksell (1898) By Petri, Fabio
  15. Economic and Demographic Interactions in Post- World War France: A Gendered Approach. By Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Faustine Perrin
  16. A Set of Motives to Unite Them All? Revisiting the Principles and Typology of MNE Motives By Alvaro Cuervo-Cazzura; Rajneesh Narula
  17. Designing dynamic research contests By Joël Floris; Kaspar Staub; Ulrich Woitek
  18. Path Dependence and Interdependence Between Institutions and Development By David Fadiran; Mare Sarr
  19. Oil price and economic growth: a long story? By María Dolores Gadea; Ana Gómez-Loscos; Antonio Montañés
  20. Schumpeter, Veblen and Bourdieu on Institutions and the Formation of Habits By Bögenhold, Dieter; Michaelides, Panayotis G.; Papageorgiou, Theofanis
  21. Institutions, Knowledge Accumulation and Productivity Growth in the Second Half of the XXth By Sanchís-Llopis, Juan A.; Sanchís Llopis, M. Teresa; Esteve, Vicente; Cubel Montesinos, Antonio
  22. La segmentation ethnique en marketing : un outil de maintien de la domination sociale en France. By Sondes Zouaghi
  23. Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949 By Nicos Christodoulakis
  24. The Fouchet Plan: De Gaulle’s Intergovernmental Design for Europe By Anthony Teasdale
  25. The debt of the Hôtel-Dieu de Paris from 1660 to 1690: a testbed for sovereign default By Pierre-Charles Pradier
  26. New York City’s return from the brink: remarks at the Lotos Club, New York City By Dudley, William
  27. Core and Periphery in the European Monetary Union: Bayoumi and Eichengreen 25 Years Later By Nauro F. Campos; Corrado Macchiarelli
  28. Falling Real Interest Rates, House Prices, and the Introduction of the Pill By Lu, J.; Teulings, C.
  29. Crisis Financieras en la Historia Las crisis financieras no son un fenómeno nuevo en la historia. Desde la crisis de los tulipanes en 1634 hasta la crisis financiera de Estados Unidos en 2008 y la europea de 2010 son eventos que se han sucedido sin que se encuentre la forma de evitarlos. A lo largo de la historia, las crisis financieras asociadas a burbujas especulativas y excesiva acumulación de deudas son eventos recurrentes que comparten un patrón similar, matizado con las características de cada país y momento histórico. Los avances tecnológicos juegan un rol en la aceleración de las mismas. A pesar de ello no tienen una definición única ni tampoco un esquema de resolución aceptado. Las crisis generan consecuencias el elevado costo social que generan en niveles de actividad y empleo. Una revisión de las principales crisis financieras de la historia muestra una serie de elementos comunes y deja lecciones que deben tomarse en cuenta para, al menos, minimizar su ocurrencia. By Carlos Parodi Trece

  1. By: David Chilosi; Giovanni Federico
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the debate on globalization and the great divergence with a comprehensive analysis of the integration of Asia in the world market from 1800 to the eve of World War II. We examine the patterns of convergence in prices for a wide range of commodities between Europe and the main Asian countries (India, Indonesia, Japan and China) and we compare them with convergence between Europe and the East Coast of the United States, hitherto the yardstick for the 19th century. Most price convergence occurred before 1870, mainly as a consequence of the abolition of the European trading monopolies with Asia, and, to a lesser extent, the repeal of duties on Atlantic trade. After 1870, price differentials continued to decline thanks to falling freights and to better communication after the lay-out of telegraph cables. There was only little disintegration in the inter-war years.
    Keywords: Globalization; Market integration; International trade; Economic growth; Asia; Nineteenth century
    JEL: F14 F15 N74 N75 O40
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Abdulkader Cassim Mahomedy
    Abstract: This paper follows on from the previous one in this series on the incursion of rationalist thought into Christendom. In this paper, I show how the sequence of socio-political events in Europe at the turn of the 16th century provided an opportunistic environment for rationalism to supplant religion as the dominant paradigm for human thought. It gave birth to the Scientific Revolution, the Enlightenment, and their nemesis, the Romantic Movement. All of them sought to assert the primacy of human agency in the process of knowledge generation. But from inception, scientific thought itself was split between the competing claims of both intellectualism and empiricism. After discussing the key features of each episteme, I show how despite considerable efforts in the occidental world to reconcile this bifurcation, none has produced a satisfying synthesis. This dichotomy now abides not only within the individual psyche but also across the entirety of the socio-scientific enterprise and all of its institutions and artefacts. Its implications have been previously described as a watershed in the history of humankind, instituting an intellectual crisis of great import. More importantly for this study, I then juxtapose some of these outcomes vis-Ã -vis the agenda of Islamic economics and finance, to demonstrate the inherent dissonance between the two systems of thought. Lastly, I introduce the reader to the third and last part of this study, to appear in another edition of this series, where I demonstrate that when mainstream economics fell under the grip of rationalist philosophy, it suffered, as a result, the same fate of atomisation and methodological individualism
    Keywords: Epistemology, intellectualism, empiricism, Economics, Islamic economics 
    JEL: E42
    Date: 2016–09
  3. By: Francesco Giffoni (University of Rome, La Sapienza); Matteo Gomellini (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: The relationship between emigration and human capital is a hotly debated issue. Nowadays discussions focus mainly on the so called brain drain, i.e. the reduction in the human capital endowment of a country due to the emigration of more skilled people. Differently, this paper investigates whether and how the Italian emigration of the early twentieth century induced a domestic increase in school attendance rates. Many historical clues suggest that this actually happened in Italy at the turn of the nineteenth century. At least three rationales lie at the heart of such a relationship: first, emigration or its prospects increase the expected return to schooling thus making education more attractive; second, return migration could fuel a rise in school attendance via monetary and non-monetary channels; third, remittances could help in relaxing the budget constraint that prevented people to invest in education. Using a new dataset at the city level and different econometric techniques, we find quantitative support that primary school attendance rates have been positively correlated with (and, arguably, partially caused by) emigration and return migration. We also find that remittances had a positive effect on schooling.
    Keywords: migration, brain gain, schooling
    JEL: F22 N33 O15
    Date: 2015–04
  4. By: Huntington, Hillard
    Abstract: Sustained energy price increases in the United States have preceded declines in economic activity as far back as 1890. This finding applies to two different historical GDP data sets. It suggests a much longer national experience with rising energy prices that began well before the period after World War Two. This problem emerged well before the US transition towards petroleum products when coal was an important energy source. This relationship varies with the state of the economy and appears less evident during some periods, as in the years following the 1929 stock market crash.
    Keywords: economic history, supply shocks, energy and the economy
    JEL: N51 N71 O51 Q43
    Date: 2016–05
  5. By: Phoebe Koundouri; Nikolaos Kourogenis; Nikitas Pittis
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to survey the statistical models of stock returns that have been suggested in the finance literature since the middle of the twentieth century; second, to examine under the prism of the contemporary philosophy of science, which of the aforementioned models can be classified as explanatory and which as descriptive. Special emphasis is paid on tracing the interactions between the motivation for the birth of statistical models of stock returns in any given historical period and the concurrent changes of the theoretical paradigm in financial economics, as well as those of probability theory.
    Keywords: stock returns; statistical model; explanatory model; scientific explanation; market efficiency; Brownian motion
    JEL: C51
    Date: 2016–02
  6. By: Natalia M. Dolgorukova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper analyses the first French critiques of the two Mikhail Bakhtin’s monographs and the careful exploration of these reviews enables to explain why they presented him as a formalist. It also traces the reasons of irrelevance of the thinker’s ideas in the early French reception
    Keywords: M.M. Bakhtin, French reviews, Y. Kristeva, Russian formalists
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Sandra Natoli (Bank of Italy); Paolo Piselli (Bank of Italy); Ivan Triglia (Bank of Italy); Francesco Vercelli (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: This paper presents the Archivio Storico del Credito in Italia (ASCI), a comprehensive database of balance sheet data for nearly 2,600 Italian banks on an annual basis for the period 1890-1973. The work draws on earlier work carried out by the Bank of Italy for the period 1890-1936 (published in 1996) and incorporates information collected by the Bank of Italy as part of its banking supervision activity from 1936 onwards. ASCI is suitable for analyzing a variety of credit phenomena, given the high representativeness of the banking system and the large amount of balance sheet data available. Based on this new dataset, we provide a sketch of the evolution of the Italian banking system between 1890 and 1973, exploring the composition of the balance sheets across bank categories, the regional distribution of banks and the degree of concentration.
    Keywords: bank statements, credit statistics, banking history
    JEL: C81 G21 N23 N24
    Date: 2016–01
  8. By: Oleg Morozov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article traces the origins of the Humboldt myth. It challenges the established view that the myth arose during the celebrations of the centenary of Berlin University in 1910, demonstrating that this view is not confirmed by sources. First, the article examines the speeches delivered by the participants in the 1910 jubilee celebrations and concludes that they could not have provided the basis for the Humboldt myth because they mention Humboldt no more frequently than the names of other prominent scientists, and the brief assessments of his activities are too vague to warrant judgements about his contribution to the development of higher education. Second, the article analyzes the works of German philosophers and educators of the early twentieth century and stresses that the sources of the Humboldt myth go back mainly to works written before 1910, had nothing to do with the centenary of Berlin University and were influenced by Humboldt’s note On the Internal and External Organization of the Higher Scientific Institutions in Berlin published in 1903. The article concludes that the traditional view of the origin of the Humboldt myth needs to be re-examined: the myth was born before 1910 and the centenary of Berlin University was only one channel for asserting and spreading it
    Keywords: Wilhelm von Humboldt, Berlin University, Humboldt myth, history of universities, higher education, academic community, jubilee, 1910
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Phiilippe Gillig
    Abstract: Many German historical economists have denounced classical political economy’s pretension to establish abstract universal laws. This paper seeks to defend John Stuart Mill against this criticism. It argues that, contrary to what these authors alleged, they have a great deal more in common with Mill on this topic than they were willing to realise. In fact, from a methodological as well as a political perspective, their views on relativity regarding both economic laws and the laissez-faire principle are very similar to those of Mill’s..
    Keywords: German historical economics, H. Roesler, G. Schmoller, J. S. Mill, natural laws, epistemology, laissez-faire.
    JEL: B12 B15 B40
    Date: 2016
  10. By: David S. Jacks; Se Yan; Liuyan Zhao
    Abstract: To what degree were Chinese financial markets integrated with the rest of the world prior to the 1949 Revolution and to what extent was the Chinese foreign exchange market efficient during this period? We estimate silver points for the Shanghai market from 1905 to 1933 to answer these questions. Our inferred measures are small in value, favorably match measured costs of the silver trade derived from contemporary accounts, and fare well in the comparison to estimates of trans-Atlantic gold points. This leads to the conclusion that the degree of Chinese financial market integration was substantial. However, during and immediately after World War I, our estimates of the silver points increased appreciably, foreshadowing the collapse of China’s linkages to world financial markets beginning in the 1930s.
    JEL: E42 F15 N25
    Date: 2016–10
  11. By: Zachary Ward
    Abstract: I estimate the premium for speaking English and the rate of language acquisition in the early 20th century US using new linked data on over half a million migrants. Compared with today's migrants, early 20th century migrants arrived with much lower levels of proficiency, yet many acquired language skills rapidly after arrival. Learning to speak English was correlated with a small upgrade in occupational-based earnings (2 to 6%); the premium has at least doubled between 1900 and 2010, revealing that English fluency has become an increasingly large barrier to migration over time.
    Keywords: English fl uency, language, migrant assimilation
    JEL: F22 J24 J61 J62 N31 N32
    Date: 2016–10
  12. By: Özak, Ömer
    Abstract: This research explores the effects of the geographical distance to the pre-industrial technological frontier on economic development. It establishes theoretically and empirically that there exists a persistent non-monotonic effect of distance to the frontier on development. In particular, exploiting a novel measure of the travel time to the technological frontier and variations in its location during the pre-industrial era, it establishes a robust persistent U-shaped relation between the distance to the pre-industrial technological frontier and economic development. Moreover, it demonstrates that isolation from the frontier has had a positive cumulative effect on innovation and entrepreneurial activity levels, suggesting isolation may have fostered the emergence of a culture conducive to innovation, knowledge creation, and entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: E02, F15, F43, N10, N70, O11, O14, O31, O33, Z10
    JEL: E02 F15 F43 N10 O10 O11 O14 O25 O31 O33 Z10
    Date: 2016–10
  13. By: Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer
    Abstract: This research explores the deep historical roots and persistent effects of the division of labor in pre-modern societies. It advances the hypothesis, and establishes empirically that population diversity had a positive causal effect on the division of labor. Based on a novel ethnic level dataset combining geocoded ethnographic, linguistic and genetic data, this research exploits the exogenous variation in population diversity generated by historical migratory patterns to causally establish that higher levels of population diversity were conducive to economic specialization and the emergence of trade-related institutions that, in turn, translated into differences in pre-modern comparative development. Additionally, this research provides suggestive evidence that regions historically inhabited by pre-modern societies with higher levels of economic specialization have higher levels of contemporary occupational heterogeneity, economic complexity and development.
    Keywords: Economic Specialization, Division of Labor, Trade, Comparative Development, Economic Development, Human Capital, Skill-Bias, Population Diversity, Genetic Diversity, Linguistic Diversity, Cultural Diversity, Persistence, Serial Founder Effect
    JEL: D74 F10 F14 J24 N10 O10 O11 O12 O40 O43 O44 Z10 Z13
    Date: 2016–08–26
  14. By: Petri, Fabio (Università degli Studi di Siena (University of Siena))
    Abstract: Pierangelo Garegnani has argued that the value capital endowment could have been avoided in Knut Wicksell’s long-period general equilibrium in Value, Capital and Rent (1898); the capital endowment might have been speci-fied as an amount of labour embodied in the economy’s stock of capital goods, which would have avoided the vi-cious circle of a factor endowment dependent on the prices the equilibrium must determine. The paper argues that this thesis cannot be accepted.
    Keywords: capital endowment; long-period general equilibrium; Wicksell; Garegnani
    JEL: B13 D50
    Date: 2015–04
  15. By: Magali Jaoul-Grammare; Faustine Perrin
    Abstract: This paper investigates the interaction between economic, demographic and educational variables in post- World War II France. Based on the assumptions of the unified growth theory, we estimate a vector autoregression for data on fertility, GDP per capita, educational attainment, labor force participation and wages over the period 1962-2008. The methodology employed is based on VAR modeling, using a nonstructural approaches. Our findings are consistent with the statements of the theoretical literature and emphasize the importance of the role played by gender roles on demographic and economic developments. In particular, the analysis shows that relative wages endogenously adjust to the level of female education and fertility. The investigation of the effect of shocks through the analysis of impulse responses confirms these results.
    Keywords: Causality; Vector Auto-regression; Gender; Economic Growth; France.
    JEL: C32 J16 N34
    Date: 2016
  16. By: Alvaro Cuervo-Cazzura (Northeastern University, USA); Rajneesh Narula (Henley Business School University of Reading RG6 6UD UK)
    Abstract: We reflect on the background and evolution of the internationalization motives over the last few decades, and provide suggestions for how to use the motives for future analyses. We also reflect on the contributions to the debate of the accompanying articles of the forum. There continue to be new developments in the way in which firms organize themselves as MNEs and this implies that the ‘classic’ motives originally introduced by Dunning in 1993 need to be revisited. Dunning’s motives and arguments were deductive and atheoretical, and were intended to be used as a toolkit, used in conjunction with other theories and frameworks. They are not an alternative to a classification of possible MNE strategies. This paper provides a deeper and nuanced understanding on internationalization motives for future research to build on.
    Keywords: Internationalization, motives, multinational companies
    Date: 2015–03
  17. By: Joël Floris; Kaspar Staub; Ulrich Woitek
    Abstract: To assess the impact of interventions on well-being during war time, we analyze data from the birth records at the university maternity hospital of Basle in the period 1912-1920. Birth weight of children from medium SEP families decreased during the crisis years 1918 and 1919, but not for low and high SEP families. A potential explanation is access to food: while high SEP families could compensate for high prices, low SEP families received support, for which medium SEP families were not eligible.
    Keywords: Birth weight, World War 1, Switzerland
    JEL: N14 N34 H75 I18
    Date: 2016–10
  18. By: David Fadiran; Mare Sarr
    Abstract: Path dependence theory, within the institutions context, means that the path of institutions promulgated within a system historically determines the nature of institutions that will ensue within the same system in the present and in the future. The paper makes use of a newly constructed index of institutions quality, and addresses three related questions; the existence of path dependence in institutions, the interdependence and causality between political and economic institutions, and lastly the interdependence between economic development and institutions. In addressing the first question, I use unit root tests to test the hypothesis that institutions promulgated during colonial times still influence institutions promulgated during the post colonial era. I also test for interdependence between institutions in Nigeria using an error correction model in analysing the extent of interdependence between political and economic institutions. Lastly, I test the critical juncture hypothesis—which argues that better institutions lead to economic development and the modernisation hypotheses—which argues that economic development leads to better institutions. The results show support for early path dependence in both political and economic institutions. I also find evidence in support of interdependence running from economic to political institutions. Lastly, there is evidence of a long-run association between institutions and economic development, with the evidence supporting the critical juncture hypothesis, more than the modernisation hypothesis.
    Keywords: institutions, Legislations, Persistence, Economic Growth and Development, Nigeria
    JEL: K00 K11 N00 N1 N47 O1 O11
    Date: 2016–10
  19. By: María Dolores Gadea (UNIVERSITY OF ZARAGOZA); Ana Gómez-Loscos (Banco de España); Antonio Montañés (UNIVERSITY OF ZARAGOZA)
    Abstract: This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately. From a multivariate perspective, we do not observe a significant effect between changes in oil prices and GDP growth when considering the full period. However, we find a significant relationship in some subperiods by carrying out a rolling analysis and by investigating the presence of structural breaks in the multivariate framework. Finally, we obtain evidence, by means of a time-varying VAR, that the impact of the oil price shock on GDP growth has declined over time. We also observe that the negative effect is greater at the time of large oil price increases, supporting previous evidence of nonlinearity in the relationship.
    Keywords: oil price, business cycle, structural breaks
    JEL: C22 C32 E32 Q43
    Date: 2016–10
  20. By: Bögenhold, Dieter; Michaelides, Panayotis G.; Papageorgiou, Theofanis
    Abstract: As we know, Joseph Alois Schumpeter is one of the greatest economists of all times, while Thorstein Veblen is an economist and sociologist who made seminal contributions to the social sciences. Pierre Bourdieu, meanwhile, is one of the most famous structural sociologists, who has consistently worked on economic dynamics. These three scholars have laid the foundations of a socioeconomic perspective. However, several important aspects of their works remain less widely discussed, or even inadequately explored in a comparative manner. Of course, investigating the origins of their ideas in evolutionary and institutional economics and re-evaluating comparatively the influences that shaped their works is quite useful for promoting dialogue between Economics and Sociology. Within this framework, this essay focuses on the conceptual relationship between Schumpeter, Veblen and Bourdieu. Evolution and Change shape the economic life in their respective works and, in such a framework a central point of their analyses is the interdependence between the cultural, social and economic spheres. Furthermore, an economic sociology is built around the concept of habit formation. The three great authors’ systemic views focus on the various institutions and other aspects of cultural, social and economic life, where habits are formed and cover diverse fields and notions such as Consumption, Preferences, Art, Knowledge, Banking and even Capitalism. For instance, all three social scientists acknowledged the fact that the internal dynamics of capitalism introduce structural instabilities into the economic system. Also, they recognized that research and knowledge development is a collective social process. However, from a methodological perspective, their main emphasis is on the emerging dynamic evolution of habits, which is perceived as the interruption of already existing social norms and the conflict between routine and change. Several differences between Schumpeter, Veblen and Bourdieu are observed and analysed and ideas for future research are presented.
    Keywords: Schumpeter, Veblen, Bourdieu, Habits, Consumption, Capitalism
    JEL: B15 B25 B31
    Date: 2016
  21. By: Sanchís-Llopis, Juan A.; Sanchís Llopis, M. Teresa; Esteve, Vicente; Cubel Montesinos, Antonio
    Abstract: This paper studies the relevance of institutional differences in the way knowledge determines productivity for a set of 21 OECD countries in the second half of the XXth century. The relationship between TFP and knowledge related variables is reconsidered after controlling for a new set of institutional variables tailored to represent the post WWII institutions: the Welfare State and international trade and capital flows liberalization. We estimate the impact of innovation variables over productivity during the Golden Age as compared to the whole period 1953-2007, after controlling by these specific institutional variables. Additionally, we distinguish the particular impact of these relationships for five groups of countries following Amable (2006) classification of different kinds of capitalism. Our results suggest institutions determine the response of TFP to the knowledge variables and that the resulting elasticities are higher during the Golden Age. We find that there are not significant differences between the different groups and the market oriented economies with regard to the elasticity of TFP to the indoor innovation, with the exception of Japan. However, the results suggest that in Anglo-Saxon market oriented economies, international spillovers of technology have a higher impact on TFP. Additionally, in continental and Mediterranean European countries and Japan, TFP is more sensitive to human capital accumulation than in the market-oriented economies (the US and the UK).
    Keywords: spillovers; domestic knowledge; institutions; TFP
    JEL: O43 O40 O31
    Date: 2016–10
  22. By: Sondes Zouaghi (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Cet article pose la question de la responsabilité des chercheurs dans la diffusion d’idéologies encourageant la séparation et l’enfermement culturel des groupes sociaux minoritaires dans une relation dominant/dominé. L’ancrage de la segmentation ethnique dans le paradigme colonial est un exemple éloquent dans les recherches en marketing. Or ce paradigme qui sépare le monde en centre et périphérie ou en dominant et dominé n’est pas le seul possible. En s’inspirant des postcolonial studies, les chercheurs en marketing abordent le marché ethnique en étant au plus près des consommateurs et en adaptant leurs méthodologies à la Consumer Culture Theory. Ils prennent ainsi conscience que le sentiment ethnique n’existe pas sans l’intervention du groupe dominant qui impose aux minorités cette manière de se penser. Pour les personnes pluriculturelles, il s’agit de naviguer dans différentes situations sociales en puisant dans les divers fonds identitaires à disposition. Il s’agit donc de sois multiples plutôt que d’identité ethnique. Ils sont créateurs de leur propre identité et cocréateurs de nouvelles catégories sociales émanant des interstices entre groupes dominants et dominés. La démarche postcoloniale pousse donc à se demander si l’ethnicité ne serait pas un artefact qu’aucune réalité interne à l’individu ne sous-tend, sauf celle d’une vision dominée des minorités.
    Keywords: marketing ethnique, segmentation, colonial, postcolonial, consumer culture theory, identité.
    Date: 2015–05–01
  23. By: Nicos Christodoulakis
    Abstract: Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.
    Keywords: Civil war; Greece; Equilibrium and stability conditions; Production function
    JEL: C62 E23 N44 O52
    Date: 2016
  24. By: Anthony Teasdale
    Abstract: This paper explores the politics of the Fouchet Plan, the unsuccessful initiative by French President Charles de Gaulle in 1961-62 to create a new ‘union of states’ for foreign-policy and defence cooperation among the six founding members of the European Community. The paper traces the origins of de Gaulle’s proposal – which was designed not only to parallel the existing Community, but potentially to subsume it – and analyses the complex and fraught course of the subsequent negotiations, which divided the Six and ended in stalemate. The struggle between intergovernmental and supranational visions of Europe thrown up by the Fouchet Plan represented an early, acute example of the recurrent institutional and political problems involved in developing structures to share sovereignty in areas of power which are central to the claim of larger nations to remain independent states, and it pointed to the limits of integration likely to be confronted by simple replication of the classic ‘Community method’ in increasingly sensitive areas of policy. Although the dilemma of how to incorporate a significant intergovernmental dimension within the European institutional structure was eventually resolved in the Maastricht Treaty two decades later, the Fouchet dispute had important consequences in the years that followed, notably in hardening de Gaulle's attitude to British membership of the Community and in seriously constraining the dynamic of the integration process more widely.
    Keywords: Adenauer, de Gaulle, Spaak, Luns, Fouchet, intergovernmentalism, supranationalism, political union, veto, European Union
    Date: 2016–10
  25. By: Pierre-Charles Pradier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: It is generally accepted that there was no proper evaluation of life annuities in the seventeenth century, thus the bankruptcy of the Paris Hôtel-Dieu 1689 is commonly attributed to this mispricing. New sources show that the prices of annuities from 1668 on are compatible with Deparcieux's mortality table discounted at the legal rate of interest. The bankruptcy resulted from incorrect provisioning of life annuities liabilities rather than mispricing. That story would have been anecdotal if the French king had not decided to borrow using contingent annuities around the same time: the Crown's plan can be shown to be unsustainable.
    Abstract: On considère généralement que les rentes viagères ne sont pas vendues à leur prix actuariel au dix septième siècle, ce qui suffirait à expliquer la banqueroute de l'Hôtel-Dieu de Paris en 1689. Des sources nouvelles permettent de montrer que l'évaluation des rentes à partir de 1668 est compatible avec une actualisation au taux légal de la table de mortalité due à Deparcieux (1746). Les problèmes de l'institution résultaient en fait d'un provisionnement incorrect des sommes à payer plutôt que d'une erreur de tarification. L'histoire serait anecdotique, si le roi de France n'avait pas décidé au même moment d'emprunter avec des instruments contingents. Les difficultés de l'Hôtel-Dieu permettent de comprendre que les plans de la couronne ne sont pas soutenables. Ils sont donc conçus pour «faire sortir l'argent», ce qui se traduit par une éviction des actifs offerts par l'Hôtel-Dieu.
    Keywords: life annuities,financial revolution,early modern Europe,hospitality,rentes viagères,révolution financière,Europe moderne,hospitalité
    Date: 2016–08
  26. By: Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: Remarks at the Lotos Club, New York City.
    Keywords: Black Monday; 1970s; Columbia University; 1960s; Emergency Financial Control Board; homelessness; Great Recession; Municipal Assistance Corporation (MAC)
    Date: 2016–10–19
  27. By: Nauro F. Campos; Corrado Macchiarelli
    Abstract: Bayoumi-Eichengreen (1993) establish a EMU core-periphery pattern using 1963-1988 data. We use same methodology, sample, window length (1989-2015), and a novel over-identifying restriction test to ask whether the EMU strengthened or weakened the core-periphery pattern. Our results suggest the latter.
    Keywords: Business cycle synchronization, Structural VAR, European Monetary Union, Core-periphery
    JEL: E32 E63 F02
    Date: 2016–09
  28. By: Lu, J.; Teulings, C.
    Abstract: The past 30 years has witnessed a worldwide decrease in real interest rates. Simultaneously over this period house prices have grown in real terms. We demonstrate that these trends can be explained by changes in demographic structure associated with the introduction of the pill in the early 1970s. Following this, most of the western world, Japan and China saw similar reductions in fertility rates, though timing and magnitude differ among countries. In the long-run this leads to lower population growth. In the short-run the cohort born just before the introduction of the pill are disproportionally larger than cohorts born before and after. As this large cohort accumulates assets for retirement, aggregate savings supply increases which results in falling real interest rates and rising house prices. We find that an increase in house prices over the past decades was likely an efficient outcome that aided efficiency in the transition towards the new balanced growth path. However, housing's appreciation is a feature that can't be easily explained in a rational framework. Our model predicts that real interest rates will continue to fall, overshooting the new balanced growth path level until hitting a trough at around the year 2035.
    Date: 2016–10–27
  29. By: Carlos Parodi Trece (Departamento de Economía, Universidad del Pacífico)
    Keywords: Crisis financieras, historia económica, globalización crisis de deuda, economía.
    JEL: G0 E5 N2 N4
    Date: 2016–07

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.