nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒10‒16
forty-one papers chosen by

  1. Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein's Econometrics By Erich Pinzón-Fuchs
  2. Wealth-Income Ratios in a Small, Developing Economy: Sweden, 1810–2014 By Waldenström, Daniel
  3. Fragmentation of capital markets in early modern Spain? Composite monarchies and their jurisdictions By Cyril Milhaud
  4. Stealing Deposits: Deposit Insurance, Risk-Taking and the Removal of Market Discipline in Early 20th Century Banks By Charles W. Calomiris; Matthew S. Jaremski
  5. The Concept of ‘Friendship’ in Late 18th – Early 19th Century Russia: Social Cohesion Reconsidered By Maiia Lavrinovich
  6. Economic Crisis, Economic Methodology and the Scientific Ideal of Physics By Drakopoulos, Stavros A.
  7. What are production, work and consumption? Trans-historical re-conceptualisations By Edvinsson, Rodney
  8. Antonio De Viti de Marco, political competition, and the principle of minimum means By Amedeo Fossati; Marcello Montefiori
  9. Elites and the Expansion of Education in 19th-century Sweden By Andersson, Jens; Berger, Thor
  10. Piketty's "Kapitaal" in een (kritische) notendop By Lodewijk Berlage
  11. On Performativity: Option Theory and the Resistance of Financial Phenomena By Nicolas Brisset
  12. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts By Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
  13. Macroeconometric modeling as a "photographic description of reality" or as an "engine for the discovery of concrete truth" ? Friedman and Klein on statistical illusions By Erich Pinzón-Fuchs
  14. Ethnic segmentation in marketing: a tool for social domination in France. By Sondes Zouaghi
  15. El emisor en Provincia: Presencia del Banco de la Republica en Barranquilla, Cartagena y Santa Marta entre las décadas de 1920 y 1950 By Joaquín Viloria De La Hoz
  16. Ratio Pecuniam Parit Accounting and the making of financial markets in the Early Modern Age By Nadia Matringe
  17. The Fall of Capital Punishment and the Rise of Prisons: How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts By Bindler, Anna; Hjalmarsson, Randi
  18. Economic Conditions and Mortality: Evidence from 200 Years of Data By David M. Cutler; Wei Huang; Adriana Lleras-Muney
  19. Le patrimoine au XXIè siècle By Guillaume Allegre; Xavier Timbeau
  20. Retorno a las bases: la creación del BCRA en contexto By Fulponi, Juan Ignacio
  21. Trade and the Size Distribution of Firms: Evidence from the German Empire By Marcus Biermann
  22. Empresas de vapores en el Caribe Colombiano: La navegación fluvial y los ferrocarriles en el Magdalena Grande y el Bajo Magdalena, 1870 - 1930 By Joaquín Viloria De la Hoz
  23. The Loss of Production Work: Evidence from Quasi-Experimental Identification of Labour Demand Functions By Elias Einiö
  24. Do Grandparents and Great-Grandparents Matter? Multigenerational Mobility in the US, 1910-2013 By Joseph Ferrie; Catherine Massey; Jonathan Rothbaum
  25. El emisor en Provincia: Presencia del Banco de la Republica en Barranquilla, Cartagena y Santa Marta entre las décadas de 1920 y 1950Abstract:En este documento se analiza la incidencia del Banco de la República en las actividades económicas y empresariales del Caribe colombiano entre las décadas de 1920 y 1950. En específico, se estudian los ciclos de la economía local, las crisis bancarias, así como la dinámica demográfica de Barranquilla, Cartagena y Santa Marta. También se tiene como objetivo conocer el sistema financiero local y, dentro de éste, los cupos de crédito y redescuento otorgados a los empresarios por el banco emisor. Además, se analiza la administración fiduciaria ejercida por el Banco de la República sobre los bienes de alemanes, italianos y japoneses radicados en la Costa Caribe durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial. En síntesis, este documento hace un aporte al estudio comparativo de las actividades económicas y empresariales de las tres ciudades más importantes del caribe colombiano, durante el período de estudio. By Joaquín Viloria De la Hoz
  26. Implicit contracts and acquisitions: An econometric case study of the nineteenth century Australian banking industry By Andrew J. Seltzer
  27. Resilience, coal and the macroeconomy By Molyneaux, Lynette; Brown, Colin; Foster, John; Wagner, Liam
  28. The time value of housing: historical evidence on discount rates By Bracke, Philippe; Pinchbeck, Edward; Wyatt, James
  29. Jusqu’où l’économie écologique pense-t-elle l’inégalité environnementale ? Autour de l’oeuvre de Joan Martinez-Alier By Laura Centemeri; Gildas Renou
  30. Beyond the personal-anonymous divide: Agency relations in powers of attorney in France, 18th–19th centuries By Fabien Eloire; Claire Lemercier; Veronica Aoki Santarosa
  31. Empresas de vapores en el Caribe Colombiano: La navegación fluvial y los ferrocarriles en el Magdalena Grande y el Bajo Magdalena, 1870 - 1930 By Joaquín Viloria De la Hoz
  32. Witch Trials: Discontent in Early Modern Europe By Chris Hudson
  33. Les enseignements de la longue histoire des ordres religieux occidentaux en matière de (bonnes) pratiques de gouvernance : monachisme et ordres mendiants By Peter Wirtz
  34. Explaining Declines in US Rural Mortality, 1910-1933: The Role of County Health Departments By Lauren Hoehn Velasco
  35. Liquidity Traps and Large-Scale Financial Crises By Giovanni Caggiano; Efrem Castelnuovo; Olivier Damette
  36. The Fiscal Consequences of Deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization By António Afonso; João Tovar Jalles
  37. Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians’ Response to Robert Lucas By Aurélien Goutsmedt; Erich Pinzon-Fuchs; Matthieu Renault; Francesco Sergi
  38. Deconstructing Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1983 - 2013 By Edward N. Wolff
  39. Inspired and inspiring: Hervé Moulin and the discovery of the beauty contest game By Rosemarie Nagel; Christoph Bühren; Björn Frank
  40. La lechería argentina, desde el retorno de la democracia hasta nuestros días: balances y perspectivas de un sector en crisis By Ignacio Zubizarreta
  41. Why Study Economics? : a speech at the Convocation for the Department of Economics, Howard University, Washington, D.C., September 27, 2016. By Fischer, Stanley

  1. By: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Lawrence R. Klein (1920-2013) played a major role in the construction and in the further dissemination of econometrics from the 1940s. Considered as one of the main developers and practitioners of macroeconometrics, Klein's influence is reflected in his application of econometric modelling " to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies " for which he was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1980. The purpose of this paper is to give an account of Klein's image of econometrics focusing on his early period as an econometrician (1944-1950), and more specifically on his period as a Cowlesman (1944-1947). Independently of how short this period might appear, it contains a set of fundamental publications and events, which were decisive for Klein's conception of econometrics, and which formed Klein's unique way of doing econometrics. At least four features are worth mentioning, which characterise this uniqueness. First, Klein was the only Cowlesman who carried on the macroeconometric programme beyond the 1940s, even if the Cowles had already abandoned it. Second, his pluralistic approach in terms of economic theory allowed him not only to use the Walrasian framework appraised by the Cowles Commission and especially by T.C. Koopmans, but also the Marxian and Keynesian frameworks, enriching the process of model specification and motivating economists of different stripes to make use of the nascent econometrics. Third, Klein differentiated himself from the rigid methodology praised at Cowles; while the latter promoted the use of highly sophisticated methods of estimation, Klein was convinced that institutional reality and economic intuition would contribute more to econometrics than the sophistication of these statistical techniques. Last but not least, Klein never gave up what he thought was the political objective of econometrics: economic planning and social reform.
    Keywords: Economic Epistemology,History of Econometrics,History of Macroeconometric Modelling,Pluralism in Econometrics,Lawrence R Klein,Cowles Commission
    Date: 2016–09–12
  2. By: Waldenström, Daniel (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN))
    Abstract: This study uses new data on Swedish national wealth over the last two hundred years to examine whether the patterns in wealth-income ratios found by Piketty and Zucman (2014) extend to small and less developed economies. The findings reveal both similarities and differences. During the industrialization era, Sweden's domestic wealth was relatively low because of low saving rates and instead foreign capital imports became important. Twentieth century trends and levels are more similar, but in Sweden government wealth grew more important, not least through its relatively large public pension system. Overall, the findings suggest that initial conditions and economic and political institutions matter for the structure and evolution of national wealth.
    Keywords: National wealth; Household portfolios; Pension wealth; Welfare state; Institutions; Economic history
    JEL: D30 E01 E02 N30
    Date: 2016–09–23
  3. By: Cyril Milhaud (EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: The study of market integration in early modern Europe has intensified in recent years, underpinned by an appreciation of how market growth allowed specialization, promoting productivity and economic growth. Through the use of a new dataset of private annuities, the analysis draws on capital flows between the Crown of Castile and the Crown of Aragon, where interest rates between kingdoms differed by two per cent in the first half of the eighteenth century. My analysis shows that there was very little capital flow between kingdoms. As for most European monarchies, I argue that Spain’s fragmented jurisdiction created a significant divergence in legal rights between historic territories, which in turn hindered market integration.
    Keywords: Market integration,early modern,Spain,Capital markets,composite monarchies
    Date: 2016–06–24
  4. By: Charles W. Calomiris; Matthew S. Jaremski
    Abstract: Deposit insurance reduces liquidity risk but it also can increase insolvency risk by encouraging reckless behavior. A handful of U.S. states installed deposit insurance laws before the creation of the FDIC in 1933, and those laws only applied to some depository institutions within those states. These experiments present a unique testing ground for investigating the effect of deposit insurance. We show that deposit insurance increased risk by removing market discipline that had been constraining erstwhile uninsured banks. Taking advantages of the rising world agricultural prices during World War I, insured banks increased their insolvency risk, and competed aggressively for the deposits of uninsured banks operating nearby. When prices fell after the War, the insured systems collapsed and suffered especially high losses.
    JEL: G21 G28 N22
    Date: 2016–09
  5. By: Maiia Lavrinovich (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper examines social differences within the concept of ‘friendship’ in late 18th – early 19th century Russia in order to ‘reassemble’ friendship as a social phenomenon in this period. Ubiquitously, the voluminous correspondence of the Russian aristocracy is interpreted as “friendly” disregarding any social dimension and ignoring the social station of the correspondents. The 18th century was a critical period in Russia being an age of radical modernization. New social and cultural models were appropriated and, as a result of westernization, the Latin tradition was assimilated too. In early modern Europe, the concept of ‘friendship’ was applied to allegedly equal relationships, as the words cliens, patronus, clientela were not in use any more, but clients were described as amici, or friends by their patrons. The paper analyzes the correspondence of several Russian aristocrats with their clients – social inferiors. The grandees refer to these relations as ‘friendly’ and call them friendship or amitie (bien sincere or parfait) emphasizing their value for them. From the letters of their correspondents, it comes to light that the social inferiors tended to be wary and not to use these notions assessing their relationships, thus remaining in the conceptual framework of the patron-client relationships. Under the impact of the ‘emotional turn’ of early sentimentalism, the concept of friendship, like that of social cohesion, was used by the grandees as a means to reinterpret the relationships of dominance in the patron-client relations as voluntary and predicated on selfless devotion whereas their clients preferred to avoid sensitivity still resorting to more traditional and apprehensible flattery and obsequiousness
    Keywords: Russia, 18th century, friendship, correspondence, Alexander Vorontsov, Nikolai Sheremetev, Alexei Malinovskii, social hierarchy, emotional community
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Drakopoulos, Stavros A.
    Abstract: The methodological foundations of mainstream economics have been cited as one of the main reasons for its failure to account for the economic crisis of 2008. In spite of this, the status of economic methodology has not been elevated. This is due to the persistent aversion towards methodological discourse by most mainstream economists. The anti-methodology stance has a long presence as exemplified in Frank Hahn’s (1992) work. After focusing on the debate originating after the publication of Hahn’s arguments, the paper offers a categorization of the main explanations for mainstream methodological aversion. Subsequently, it suggests an explanation based on the role of the physics scientific ideal, arguing that the endeavor to achieve the high scientific status of physics by following the methods of physics, contributed to the negative mainstream attitude towards economic methodology. The relevant writings of the extremely influential mainstream economists Irving Fisher and Milton Friedman, reinforce the assertion that the alleged hard science status of economics renders methodological discussions and especially methodological criticism, rather pointless. The paper also calls for a more systematic discussion of this issue, especially in the wake of the line of argument that links the recent failings of mainstream economics to its methodological basis
    Keywords: Economic Methodology; History of Economic Thought; Economics and Physics; Economic Crisis
    JEL: B0 B30 B40
    Date: 2016–09
  7. By: Edvinsson, Rodney (Dept. of Economic History, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: This paper argues for trans-historical reformulations of the basic economic concepts of production, work and consumption. The definition of the production boundary by System of National Accounts (SNA) is inconsistent from a scientific point of view. For example, while some non-market and illegal services are viewed as productive, others are not, and services and goods are treated differently. The definition proposed by feminist economics, the so-called third person criterion, is consistent, but in need for further development; furthermore, it is a definition of work and not of production. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether it is possible to formulate a non-eclectic set of logically consistent definitions that could be considered variations of a common underlying understanding across various theoretical traditions – mainly Classical, Neoclassical, Institutional, Marxist, Feminist and Keynesian Economics – of how humans consciously change external nature in order satisfy human needs. Important issues concern how to deal with violence, double counting of transaction costs, human capital formation, non-market activities and causation of final consumption. Production, work and consumption are defined as relations between events, the subject matter and the agent, and in the main definitions reduced to non-economic sentences. Even the utility concept is avoided. First-order logic is used, complemented with modal operators for some of the sentences. In this study, it is shown that production, work and consumption all share the common feature of intentional physical transformation of the intrinsic properties of the subject matter. The object transformed during the productive activity and work must at some point in time be external to the agent. For work, the purpose of transforming an external object must not lie in the transformation of the agent. A productive activity must potentially be able to cause the satisfaction of human needs, or final consumption, which is not a condition for work or required by the third-person criterion. Final consumption involves the transformation of the subject matter that is a final purpose for the consumer or serves as a purpose for transforming the consumer. Using a criterion applied by the institutional economist Cheung to identify transaction costs, this study defines social reproduction as an activity that would not occur in a Robinson Crusoe economy. Social reproduction occurs under an institutional setting. We can further differentiate between coercive and non-coercive social reproduction. In this study, eight different definitions of production are presented. The definition of agent external production is close to the third person criterion, but the possible causation of future final consumption is included as a condition for a productive activity. It is also related to the basic neoclassical model with its assumptions of no transaction costs. The definition of agent external non-coercive production entails that transformations of persons against their own will, whether legally or illegally performed, are unproductive activities. The definition of agent external non-social production entails that all socially reproductive activities are unproductive, and comes close to the distinction made by Classical and Marxist economists of productive and unproductive work. Humanity external production only includes the transformation of non-persons. The three definitions of time scale invariant production entails that human capital formation could be considered productive activities. Market production comes close to Keynesian theory and the present definition of SNA, with the difference that it excludes non-market goods production. The present study also opens for the possibility of unproductive work, for example failed production or professional murder, and productive final consumption that does not involve any work, for example hobby-hunting, play with children or research activity for own pleasure. Which definition of production is applied greatly affects the modelling and empirical application of growth theory and the analysis of the driving forces in economic history. For example, assume trade causes labour productivity outside of trade to increase four-fold due to specialisation, while the share of GDP in total working time increases from nil to half. With the same value added per productive hour and with total hours worked kept constant, the value added of agent external production then records a four-fold increase, while that of non-social production only a doubling. Similarly, during wars the SNA GDP often increases substantially, while the concept of agent external non-coercive production entails that all war expenses are treated as unproductive. Time frame invariant production grows faster than agent external production during expansions of the education system. Market production could serve important analytical purposes, for example to investigate the relation between money supply and inflation, but should be rid of inconsistencies such as the inclusion of non-market goods production.
    Keywords: GDP; production; work; consumption; economic philosophy; SNA
    JEL: A10 B13 B14 B40 B50 B51 B52 B54 D10 E00 E21 E23 J00 J24 N00 N01 O00
    Date: 2016–10–09
  8. By: Amedeo Fossati (Università di Genova); Marcello Montefiori (Università di Genova)
    Abstract: De Viti de Marco is generally regarded as one of the most eminent scholars of the early Italian public finance tradition. This paper presents a new interpretation of his thought with respect to the prevailing literature. In particular, an original perspective is provided for three main themes. The first is the consistency of De Viti’s theory of the state, that is presented as a coherent but naïf structure founded on the principle of minimum means and on political competition. The second suggests that his reflections on concrete problems are clearly independent from his theoretical framework, which still presents some features that may have application in modern democratic states. Finally, it is argued that, even if De Viti’s role in spreading the marginal analysis in Italy remains unquestioned, he seldom employed marginal tools in his analysis, and that he was more closely related with classical economics, rather than with the real approach of marginal analysis.
    Keywords: Italian tradition in public finance, De Viti de Marco, economic theory of state intervention
    JEL: B13 B2 B31 B41 H1 H2
    Date: 2016–10
  9. By: Andersson, Jens (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Berger, Thor (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Did economic and political inequality hamper the spread of mass schooling in the 19th century? This paper analyzes the link between investments in primary schooling and the spread of voting rights in 19th-century Sweden using newly collected data on educational expenditure and the distribution of voting rights in local governments. We find that municipalities governed by local elites spent substantially more on primary schooling relative to those that were more egalitarian. This empirical result is robust to using matching estimators, comparing municipalities located within the same county or district, and using differences in agricultural suitability as an instrument for the presence of local landed elites. Broadly, these findings suggest that elites were historically not always a barrier to the diffusion of elementary education and further our understanding of how Sweden managed to maintain a high level of human capital despite its low level of economic development and restricted franchise in the 19th century.
    Keywords: Democratization; elites; human capital development
    JEL: I21 I24 N33
    Date: 2016–10–07
  10. By: Lodewijk Berlage
    Abstract: Dit LES heeft een dubbel doel. Vooreerst geven we een beknopte samenvatting van Piketty’s analyse in “Kapitaal in de XXIste eeuw”. Daarnaast formuleren we ook kritische bedenkingen bij sommige elementen van wat intussen een bestseller geworden is. Piketty trekt de aandacht op de explosieve groei van de omvang van het vermogen sinds 1950. Dat ging gepaard met een grondige wijziging in de samenstelling van dat vermogen: landbouwgrond werd vervangen door woningbezit. Piketty legt een verband tussen de toename van het vermogen en de evolutie van het aandeel van inkomen uit vermogen in het nationale inkomen. In sommige landen is het aandeel van het inkomen uit vermogen in het nationaal inkomen gestegen. Maar dat doet zich wel pas voor vanaf de jaren 1970, en in duidelijk mindere mate dan de toename van de verhouding kapitaal t.o.v. nationaal inkomen. Ook de evolutie van de verdeling van het vermogen verschilt van land tot land. In Frankrijk was de verdeling van het vermogen extreem ongelijk in de 19de eeuw en dat bleef zo tot aan de eerste wereldoorlog. De vermogensconcentratie nam sterk af tot 1970 en bleef daarna min of meer stabiel. In de Verenigde Staten was de vermogensconcentratie oorspronkelijk minder groot, maar ze steeg tijdens de laatste decennia wel sterker. Ook de recente evolutie van de inkomensverdeling verschilt van land tot land. De vermogensconcentratie is daarvan niet de belangrijkste determinant. Piketty biedt een boeiende analyse van de evolutie van de inkomensverdeling. Maar dat kapitaal daarin een overwegende rol zou spelen, zoals de titel van zijn boek suggereert, wordt niet bevestigd door de evolutie van de voorbije drie decennia.
    Date: 2016–10
  11. By: Nicolas Brisset (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS)
    Abstract: The issue of performativity concerns the claim that economics shape rather than merely describing the social world. This idea took hold following a paper by Donald MacKenzie and Yuval Millo entitled “Constructing a Market, Performing Theory: The Historical Sociology of a Financial Derivatives Exchange” (2003). This paper constitutes an important contribution to the history of economic thought since it provides an original way to focus on the scientific construction of the real economy. The authors discuss the empirical success of the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) during the period 1973-1987. They explain this success in part as instead of discovering pre-existing price regularities, it was used by traders to anticipate options’ prices in their arbitrages. As a result, options’ prices came to correspond to the theoretical prices derived from the BSM model. In the present article I show that this is not a completely correct conclusion since the BSM model never became a self-fulfilling model. I would claim that the October 1987 stock market crash is empirical proof that the financial world never fitted with the economic theory underpinning the BSM.
    Keywords: Performativity, Black-Scholes-Merton, Self-fulfillment
    JEL: B23 B41 G12
    Date: 2016–10
  12. By: Jorda, Oscar (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Schularick, Moritz (University of Bonn); Taylor, Alan M. (University of California, Davis)
    Abstract: In advanced economies, a century-long near-stable ratio of credit to GDP gave way to rapid financialization and surging leverage in the last forty years. This “financial hockey stick” coincides with shifts in foundational macroeconomic relationships beyond the widely-noted return of macroeconomic fragility and crisis risk. Leverage is correlated with central business cycle moments, which we can document thanks to a decade-long international and historical data collection effort. More financialized economies exhibit somewhat less real volatility, but also lower growth, more tail risk, as well as tighter real-real and real-financial correlations. International real and financial cycles also cohere more strongly. The new stylized facts that we discover should prove fertile ground for the development of a new generation of macroeconomic models with a prominent role for financial factors.
    JEL: E01 E13 E30 E32 E44 E51 F42 F44 G12
    Date: 2016–10–12
  13. By: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper discusses a longstanding debate between two empirical approaches to macroeconomics: the econometrics program represented by Lawrence R. Klein, and the statistical economics program represented by Milton Friedman. I argue that the differences between these two approaches do not consist in the use of different statistical methods, economic theories or political ideas. Rather, these differences are deeply rooted in methodological principles and modeling strategies inspired by the works of Léon Walras and Alfred Marshall, which go further than the standard opposition of general vs. partial equilibrium. While Klein’s Walrasian approach necessarily considers the economy as a whole, despite the economist’s inability to observe or understand the system in all its complexity, Friedman’s Marshallian approach takes into account this inability and considers that economic models should be perceived as a way to construct systems of thought based on the observation of specific and smaller parts of the economy.
    Keywords: Lawrence R. Klein, Milton Friedman, macroeconometric modeling, Cowles Commission, National Bureau of Economic Research, empirical approaches to macroeconomics, controversy on statistical illusions, Walras-Marshall methodological divide.
    Date: 2016–09–12
  14. By: Sondes Zouaghi (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Purpose – The present article deals with the issue of researchers' responsibility for the dissemination of ideologies which have led to the cultural marginalization and categorization of minority social groups into a dominant/dominated relationship in France. One telling example is the way ethnic segmentation-as now used in marketing-finds its roots in the colonial paradigm. Design/methodology/approach – A critical and analytical review of the literature on ethnic marketing. Findings – The current paradigm which splits the world into centre and periphery or dominant and dominated, in the French context, is not the only existing one. In the framework of postcolonial studies, researchers in marketing now approach the ethnic market by being as close to consumers as possible and by adapting their methodology to the Consumer Culture Theory. Originality/value – Some researchers become aware that the feeling of ethnic self-identification would not exist without the involvement of the dominant group who imposes their view on minorities. As to multicultural individuals, minorities have to adjust to a great variety of social situations by drawing from a set of available cultural identities. It is therefore more a question of multiple selves than ethnic identity. Multicultural individuals create their own identity and co-create new social categories from the grey area between dominant and dominated groups. The postcolonial approach raises the question as to whether ethnicity is a mere ideological construct with no underlying reality but the actual domination of minorities.
    Keywords: ethnic marketing,segmentation,consumer culture theory,identity,Colonial and post-colonial societies
    Date: 2016–10–07
  15. By: Joaquín Viloria De La Hoz
    Abstract: En este documento se analiza la incidencia del Banco de la República en las actividades económicas y empresariales del Caribe colombiano entre las décadas de 1920 y 1950. En específico, se estudian los ciclos de la economía local, las crisis bancarias, así como la dinámica demográfica de Barranquilla, Cartagena y Santa Marta. También se tiene como objetivo conocer el sistema financiero local y, dentro de éste, los cupos de crédito y redescuento otorgados a los empresarios por el banco emisor. Además, se analiza la administración fiduciaria ejercida por el Banco de la República sobre los bienes de alemanes, italianos y japoneses radicados en la Costa Caribe durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial. En síntesis, este documento hace un aporte al estudio comparativo de las actividades económicas y empresariales de las tres ciudades más importantes del caribe colombiano, durante el período de estudio. ******ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the incidence of the Banco de la República (Central Bank) in economic and business activities in the Colombian Caribbean between the 1920s and 1950s. Specifically, the cicles of the local economy, the banking crisis and the demographic dynamics of Barranquilla, Cartagena and Santa Marta are studied. It also has the purpose to understand the local financial system and the credit and rediscount quotas granted to entrepreneurs by the issuing bank. Additionally, it analyzes the trusteeship exercised by the Banco de la República over the possessions of the germans, italians and japanese residing in the Colombian Caribbean during the second world war. To sum up, this document contribute to the comparative study of economic and business activities of the three most important cities of the Colombian Caribbean, during this period.
    Keywords: Banco de la República, banco emisor, economía local, Barranquilla, Cartagena, Santa Marta, administración fiduciaria, Fondo de Estabilización, redescuento
    JEL: N26 E50 E30
    Date: 2016–10–05
  16. By: Nadia Matringe (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, IHMC - Institut d'histoire moderne et contemporaine - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Research in early modern accounting has mostly been concerned with the role of DEB in the rise of capitalism and the socio-cultural factors which led to its development. This study adopts an inductive approach to accounting, to demonstrate its role in the shaping of financial markets in the pre-modern era. Based on the analysis of a series of accounting operations performed by the Salviati bank of Lyons in the 16th century, it demonstrates the frequent oneness of accounting and transacting in the context of a dematerialized commission-based exchange activity. Simple games of book entries in the corresponding accounts of commercial partners performed payments, clearance and banking transactions across time and space, thereby contributing to the integration of financial markets at different scales (local, regional, international). Accounting thus sustained a European system of payments and credit that it also had the potential to destabilize, through illicit transactions supporting a black market for bills of exchange.
    Keywords: Accounting, Financial markets, Performativity, Early Modern Age.
    Date: 2016–08–31
  17. By: Bindler, Anna (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Hjalmarsson, Randi (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of punishment severity on jury decision-making using a large archival data set from the Old Bailey Criminal Court in London from 1715 to 1900. We take advantage of three natural experiments in English history, which result in sharp decreases in punishment severity: The offense specific abolition of capital punishment in the 1800s, the temporary halt of penal transportation during the American Revolution, and the abolition of transportation in 1853. Using a difference-in-differences design to study the abolition of the death penalty and pre-post designs to study the temporary and permanent halts to transportation, we find that decreasing expected punishment (especially via the end of the death penalty), had a large and significant impact on jury behavior, generally leading to the jury being ‘harsher’. Moreover, we find that the size of the effect differs with defendants’ gender and criminal history. These results raise concerns about the impartiality of juries as well as the implicit assumption often made when designing and evaluating criminal justice policies today – that the chance of conviction is independent of the harshness of the penalty.
    Keywords: jury; verdict; conviction; punishment severity; expected punishment; crime; death penalty; English history
    JEL: H00 K14 K40 N00 N43 N93
    Date: 2016–10
  18. By: David M. Cutler; Wei Huang; Adriana Lleras-Muney
    Abstract: Using data covering over 100 birth-cohorts in 32 countries, we examine the short- and long-term effects of economic conditions on mortality. We find that small, but not large, booms increase contemporary mortality. Yet booms from birth to age 25, particularly those during adolescence, lower adult mortality. A simple model can rationalize these findings if economic conditions differentially affect the level and trajectory of both good and bad inputs into health. Indeed, air pollution and alcohol consumption increase in booms. In contrast, booms in adolescence raise adult incomes and improve social relations and mental health, suggesting these mechanisms dominate in the long run.
    JEL: H51 I1 I38 J10 N10
    Date: 2016–09
  19. By: Guillaume Allegre (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Le succès mondial du livre de Thomas Piketty a donné lieu à une floraison de commentaires, laudateurs ou plus critiques. La recension des principaux arguments invite à considérer le patrimoine et non le capital comme le véritable objet de cet ouvrage.
    Keywords: Commentaires sur la thèse de Thomas Piketty,Patrimoine et héritage
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Fulponi, Juan Ignacio
    Abstract: En el presente trabajo se indagará acerca del contexto económico existente del país y el mundo durante el período de creación del Banco Central de la República Argentina, desde 1929 a 1935. Esta entidad monetaria tuvo algunos antecedentes previos a su implementación definitiva los cuales se irán detallando en el desarrollo del trabajo, haciéndose más minucioso el análisis desde el "crack" de la Bolsa de Nueva York que dio paso a la crisis mundial de 1929. Se evaluarán sus efectos en la economía nacional y las necesidades financieras que surgieron. Se analizarán las reformas fiscales, impositivas y, sobre todo, monetarias que condujeron a la creación del Banco Central en la Argentina teniendo en cuenta los modelos internacionales, la teoría económica que circulaba por ese entonces y la disputa por el perfil que este banco habría de tener así como los primeros años de su funcionamiento (de 1935 a 1939).
    Keywords: Banco Central; Política Monetaria; Argentina;
    Date: 2016
  21. By: Marcus Biermann
    Abstract: What is the effect of trade on the size distribution of firms? We collect historical data between 1882 and 1907 from the German Empire to address this question. Our data allow us to match three data sets according to the same geographic boundaries: industry census data, railway and waterway trade data. The key findings are that trade integration impacts the firm size distribution heterogeneously across three size categories. We find evidence of a stark shift in employment and firm share from small and medium firms towards larger firms. A "Bartik" instrument is proposed to argue that the correlations described are indeed causal. We provide evidence for a fall in transport costs and technology adoption as mechanisms to explain the stylized facts observed in the data
    Keywords: Firm size distribution, firm heterogeneity, technology adoption, German Empire
    JEL: F14 F15
    Date: 2016–10
  22. By: Joaquín Viloria De la Hoz
    Abstract: En este trabajo se indaga sobre la presencia de empresas y empresarios extranjeros en el Caribe colombiano entre las décadas de 1870 y 1930. El objetivo es conocer su participación en el comercio exterior colombiano, así como sus aportes a la innovación tecnológica en un sector estratégico como el del transporte. Para este fin, en el artículo se analizan las experiencias empresariales en la navegación fluvial a vapor, así como en los ferrocarriles de Barranquilla y Santa Marta, actividades que han estado siempre asociadas a inversionistas extranjeros. ******ABSTRACT: This paper investigates about the presence of foreign companies and businessmen in the Colombian Caribbean between the 1870s and 1930s. This in order to understand their participation in the Colombian foreign trade, as well as their contributions to technological innovation in a strategic sector such as transportation. For this purpose, business experiences in river steamboat and railroad transportation in Barranquilla and Santa Marta are analyzed, activities which have always been linked to foreign investors.
    Keywords: Empresas, empresarios, navegación a vapor, ferrocarriles, Caribe colombiano, Santa Marta, Barranquilla
    JEL: N76 N86 R40
    Date: 2016–10–05
  23. By: Elias Einiö
    Abstract: This paper examines changes in the structure of labour demand in plant-level panel data. I exploit variation in wages across local labour markets induced by the collapse of Finland's Soviet-dependent industry in the early 1990s to identify a labour demand model for plants producing for non-Soviet markets, which were not directly affected by the Soviet shock. I find a labour demand shift against workers in production occupations which accelerates in the 2000s, when industry patterns begin to diverge. Industry heterogeneity suggests that variation in industry structure may partly explain the differential development of wages and employment across countries.
    Keywords: labour demand function, occupation, offshoring, manufacturing, panel data, production work, technical change
    JEL: F16 J23 J24 O33
    Date: 2016–10
  24. By: Joseph Ferrie; Catherine Massey; Jonathan Rothbaum
    Abstract: Studies of US intergenerational mobility focus almost exclusively on the transmission of (dis)advantage from parents to children. Until very recently, the influence of earlier generations could not be assessed even in long-running longitudinal studies such as the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We directly link family lines across data spanning 1910 to 2013 and find a substantial “grandparent effect” for cohorts born since 1920, as well as some evidence of a “great-grandparent effect.” Although these may be due to measurement error, we conclude that estimates from only two generations of data understate persistence by about 20 percent.
    JEL: J62 J68 N32
    Date: 2016–09
  25. By: Joaquín Viloria De la Hoz (Banco de la República)
    Keywords: Banco de la República, banco emisor, economía local, Barranquilla, Cartagena, Santa Marta, administración fiduciaria, Fondo de Estabilización, redescuento Classification JEL:N26, E50, E30
    Date: 2016–10
  26. By: Andrew J. Seltzer
    Abstract: It has been argued that hostile takeovers redistribute wealth from workers to shareholders by enabling the acquiring firm to revoke implicit contracts. This paper uses micro-data from personnel records to examine the consequences of the Union Bank of Australia’s 1892 takeover of the Bank of South Australia. The evidence confirms that the lifetime earnings of older workers at the BSA declined because of the merger. They faced a high probability of losing their jobs immediately following the merger, lost specific human capital due to the closure of branches, faced a flatter salary profile over the remainder of their career, and received a reduced pension.
    Date: 2016–10
  27. By: Molyneaux, Lynette; Brown, Colin; Foster, John; Wagner, Liam
    Abstract: There remains a debate about ‘oil and the macroeconomy’ despite James Hamilton’s claims. Manufacturing in 1970s US was, however, reliant on natural gas and electricity generated from coal, not oil. Whilst coal and electricity prices also rose in the 1970s their descent to pre-1974 levels was slower than the decline in oil prices. This research considers energy resilience during the 1970s. Spare capacity, natural gas and renewable energy are key resilience characteristics that predict improved manufacturing employment. The conclusion reached is that the rise in coal prices played a role, separate to oil price, in the macro-economies of US states.
    Keywords: Energy resilience; Energy security; Macroeconomics; Oil
    JEL: E30 Q43
    Date: 2016–10–12
  28. By: Bracke, Philippe (Bank of England); Pinchbeck, Edward (London School of Economics and Spatial Economics Research Centre); Wyatt, James (
    Abstract: Most London housing transactions involve trading long leases of varying lengths. We exploit this to estimate the time value of housing — the relationship between the price of a property and the term of ownership — over a hundred years and derive implied discount rates. For our empirical analysis, we compile a unique historical data set (1987 to 1992) to abstract from the right to extend leases currently enjoyed by tenants. Across a variety of specifications and samples we find that leasehold prices are consistent with a time declining schedule and low long-term discount rates in housing markets.
    Keywords: Housing; leasehold; discount rates
    JEL: G10 R30
    Date: 2016–10–07
  29. By: Laura Centemeri (IMM - Institut Marcel Mauss - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Gildas Renou (SAGE - Sociétés, Acteurs, Gouvernement en Europe - Université de Strasbourg - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: L’objectif de cette contribution est, d’abord, de présenter l’oeuvre de l'économiste catalan Joan Martinez-Alier, un des fondateurs de l'économie écologique, en la situant dans sa trajectoire politique et intellectuelle. Il s’agira ensuite de développer une réflexion plus large concernant le type de pluralisme des valeurs qui est en question dans une critique écologique ayant l’ambition d’être attentive aux inégalités environnementales mais également à la pluralité des modes qu’ont les humains de tenir à l’environnement.
    Keywords: transition écologique, décroissance, valeur, critique écologique, mouvements sociaux,economie écologique, justice environnementale, inégalités environnementales
    Date: 2016–07–08
  30. By: Fabien Eloire (CLERSE - Centre lillois d'études et de recherches sociologiques et économiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies); Claire Lemercier (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Veronica Aoki Santarosa (University of Michigan [Ann Arbor])
    Abstract: Powers of attorney are often interpreted as evidence of trust among the parties involved, and as such, of the existence of personal links between principals and their proxies. We build a novel dataset of notarized powers of attorney capturing a wide variety of agency relationships in four large French commercial cities in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries to test hypotheses on the relational basis of economic relationships. We find little support for the idea of an evolution from personal to anonymous relationships during our period. Rather, our results point to the complementarity of embeddedness and formality, and suggest an increase over time in the importance of relationships based on repeated interactions, and a broad homophily driving merchants to choose fellow merchants as proxies.
    Keywords: proxy form,power of attorney,trust,agency relations,procuration,mandat,confiance
    Date: 2016–08–01
  31. By: Joaquín Viloria De la Hoz (Banco de la República)
    Abstract: En este trabajo se indaga sobre la presencia de empresas y empresarios extranjeros en el Caribe colombiano entre las décadas de 1870 y 1930. El objetivo es conocer su participación en el comercio exterior colombiano, así como sus aportes a la innovación tecnológica en un sector estratégico como el del transporte. Para este fin, en el artículo se analizan las experiencias empresariales en la navegación fluvial a vapor, así como en los ferrocarriles de Barranquilla y Santa Marta, actividades que han estado siempre asociadas a inversionistas extranjeros.
    Keywords: Empresas, empresarios, navegación a vapor, ferrocarriles, Caribe colombiano, Santa Marta, Barranquilla. Classification JEL:N76, N86, R40
    Date: 2016–10
  32. By: Chris Hudson (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between income and witch trials in early modern Europe. We start by using climate data to proxy for income levels. This builds on previous work by exploiting a far richer panel dataset covering 356 regions and 260 years, including both seasonal temperature and rainfall, as well as over 30,036 witch trials newly documented for this study. We find that a one degree temperature shock leads to a near quadrupling in witch trials in any given year. The second part looks at incomes more directly, and we find that different measures of income have different effects on witch trials. Furthermore, the impact may depend on the structure of the economy and how different stakeholder groups are affected. We also present evidence that the stage in the business cycle is important in predicting witch trials, with the bottom of the business cycle coinciding with a doubling of witch trials in England.
    JEL: I30 J14 J16 N43 N53 O12 Z12
    Date: 2016–10
  33. By: Peter Wirtz (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon)
    Abstract: Certains ordres religieux comptent parmi les organisations les plus anciennes encore vivantes. Ils ont tous développé au cours de leur histoire des systèmes de gouvernance qui leur sont propres. La gouvernance monastique a fait l’objet de plusieurs publications de la part de chercheurs en sciences de gestion au cours des années récentes. Ce type de recherche est encore en émergence, et les contributions restent peu nombreuses et partielles. Les recherches existantes se sont focalisées pour l’essentiel sur les bénédictins (au sens large). Des abbayes très anciennes sont encore vivantes et les archives historiques recèlent un potentiel considérable pour étudier l’influence des mécanismes de gouvernance sur la capacité de survie des monastères. D’autres ordres religieux, d’un modèle différent mais ayant également survécu depuis fort longtemps, n’ont pourtant pas reçu la même attention de la part des chercheurs en gestion que le monachisme bénédictin. Les ordres dits « mendiants » apparaissent au début du 13ème siècle. L’ordre des prêcheurs (dominicains) fête ses 800 ans d’existence et présente un modèle de gouvernance tout à fait particulier. La capacité de survie à long terme de cet ordre est donc également éprouvée. Une comparaison des deux modèles de gouvernance et de leur mode de fonctionnement, s’appuyant sur la connaissance de leur évolution historique, pourrait à terme se révéler être une approche prometteuse pour mieux comprendre si et pourquoi certaines pratiques de gouvernance soutiennent la durabilité de l’organisation qui les applique. Les organisations anciennes que sont les ordres religieux nés au moyen âge apparaissent en effet comme un « laboratoire naturel », non seulement pour décrire leurs systèmes de gouvernance et leur évolution, mais également pour comprendre leur mode opératoire. Le présent travail ne prétend pas faire le tour de la question, mais plutôt représenter un premier pas en proposant des jalons pour structurer un travail interdisciplinaire sur l’histoire des pratiques de gouvernance des ordres religieux anciens.
    Keywords: gouvernance, ordres religieux, histoire, management, bénédictins, dominicains
    Date: 2016–08–23
  34. By: Lauren Hoehn Velasco (Boston College)
    Abstract: This study estimates the impact of an American rural public health program on child mortality over 1908 to 1933. Due to the absence of sanitation and child-oriented health services outside of urban areas, public and private agencies sponsored county-level health departments (CHDs) throughout the US. Variation in the location and timing of the CHDs identifies improvements in population health, which are captured entirely by children. Mortality declines emerge in infancy and gradually decay through childhood. Adversely affected areas with either an ample population of nonwhites or greater levels of preexisting infectious disease undergo larger reductions in mortality.
    Keywords: mortality, health, development, rural population, demographic transition
    JEL: I15 I18 N31 N32 O12 O18
    Date: 2016–10–01
  35. By: Giovanni Caggiano (Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova; and Department of Economics, Monash University); Efrem Castelnuovo (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne; Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne; and Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova); Olivier Damette (UFR DEA Metz and BETA-CNRS, Université de Lorraine)
    Abstract: This paper estimates a nonlinear Threshold-VAR to investigate if a Keynesian liquidity trap due to a speculative motive was in place in the U.S. Great Depression and the recent Great Recession. We find clear evidence in favor of a breakdown of the liquidity effect after an unexpected increase in M2 in the 1921-1940 period. This evidence, which is consistent with the Keynesian view on a liquidity trap, is shown to be state contingent. In particular, it emerges only when a speculative regime identified by high realizations of the Dow Jones index is considered. A standard linear framework is shown to be ill-suited to test the hypothesis of a Keynesian liquidity trap. An investigation performed with the same data for the period 1991-2010 confirms the presence of a liquidity trap just in the speculative regime. This last result emerges significantly only when we consider the federal funds rate as the policy instrument and we model the Divisia M2 measure of liquidity.
    Keywords: Keynesian liquidity trap, threshold VAR, monetary and financial cliometrics, Great Depression, Great Recession
    JEL: B22 C52 E52 N12 N22
    Date: 2016–10
  36. By: António Afonso; João Tovar Jalles
    Abstract: We study the fiscal consequences of deflation on a panel of 17 economies in the first wave of globalization, between 1870 and 1914. By means of impulse response analyses and panel regressions, we find that a 1 percent fall in the price level leads to an increase in the public debt ratio of about 0.23- 0.32 pp. and accounting for trade openness, monetary policy and the exchange rate raises the absolute value of the coefficient on deflation. Moreover, the public debt ratio increases when deflation is also associated with a period of economic recession. For government revenue, lagged deflation comes out with a statistically significant negative coefficient, while government primary expenditure seems relatively invariant to changes in prices. Key Words : debt, deflation, local projection, impulse response functions, GMM, recessions, expansions
    JEL: C33 E31 E50 E62
    Date: 2016–10
  37. By: Aurélien Goutsmedt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Erich Pinzon-Fuchs (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Matthieu Renault (IRIF - Institut de Recherche en Informatique Fondamentale - UP7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Francesco Sergi (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The standard history of macroeconomics considers Lucas (1976)– “the Lucas Critique”–as a path-breaking innovation for the discipline. According to this view Lucas’s article dismissed the traditional macroeconometric practice calling for new ways of conceiving the quantitative evaluation of economic policies. The Lucas Critique is considered, nowadays, as a fundamental principle of macroeconomic modeling (Woodford, 2003). The interpretation and the application of the Critique, however, represent still unsolved issues in economics (Chari et al., 2008). Even if the influence of Lucas’s contribution cannot be neglected, something seems to be missing in the narrative: the reactions of the economists that were directly targeted by the Critique. Modeling practices of economic policy evaluation were not overthrown immediately after Lucas (1976), creating a divide between theoretical and applied macroeconomics (Brayton et al., 1997). In the first section we propose a careful account of Lucas’s argument and of some of the previous works anticipating the substantial outline of the Critique (like Frisch’s notion of autonomy). Second, we bring our own interpretation of Lucas (1976). We find two points of view in Lucas's paper: a prescriptive one that tell how to build a good macroeconometric model (it is the standard interpretation of the article); a positive one that relies on the fact that the Lucas critique could be seen as an attempt to explain a real-world phenomenon: stagflation. Third, we classify the reactions of the Keynesian macroeconometricians following this line of interpretation. On the prescriptive side, the Keynesians protested against the New Classical solution to the Lucas critique (the use of the rational expectation hypothesis among other things). Klein, for instance, proposed an alternative microfoundational program to empirically study the formation of expectations. On the positive side, the Keynesians put into question the relevance of the Lucas Critique to explain the rise of both unemployment and inflation in the 1970s. They tried to test the impact of policy regime changes and of shifts in agents' behavior. We argue that the explanation of the stagflation was elsewhere. The purpose of this paper is to study the reactions of the macroeconometricians criticized by Lucas. We focus especially on those macroeconometricians who worked on policy evaluation and who held an expertise position in governmental institutions. We categorize the different reactions to the Critique, in order to enrich the understanding of the evolution of modeling and expertise practices through the analysis of the debates–which have not yet been completely solved.
    Keywords: History of macroeconomics, Keynesian economics, Lu- cas Critique, Macroeconometrics, Rational Expectations.
    Date: 2016–09–12
  38. By: Edward N. Wolff
    Abstract: I use the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to analyze wealth trends from 1983 to 2013. Asset prices plunged between 2007 and 2010 but then rebounded from 2010 to 2013. Median wealth plummeted by 44 percent over years 2007 to 2010 and wealth inequality was up sharply. These two movements can be traced to the high leverage of middle class families, the high share of homes in their portfolio, and the drop in house prices. There was virtually no change in median wealth and wealth inequality from 2010 to 2013 according to the SCF despite the recovery in asset prices. A decomposition analysis based on “pseudo-panels” indicates that for the middle three wealth quintiles, capital revaluation explained virtually all of the change in simulated mean wealth over the 1983-1989, 1989-2001, 2001-2007, 2007-2010, and 2010-2013 periods, and implicit savings were negative. Trends in inequality as measured by the change in the P99/P2080 ratio largely reflected differences in rates of return and savings rates between the top one percent and the middle three wealth quintiles. Over 1983-1989, the higher savings rate of the top group explained all the increase. Over 1989-2001, 2001-2007, and 2010-2013, their higher savings rate led to an increase in the P99/P2080 ratio but this was offset by the higher rate of return of the middle group, which lowered inequality. Over years 2007-2010, both the higher savings rate of the top group and their higher rate of return contributed about equally to the rise in the P99/P2080 ratio.
    JEL: D31
    Date: 2016–09
  39. By: Rosemarie Nagel; Christoph Bühren; Björn Frank
    Abstract: We draw an unusually detailed picture of a discovery, the beauty contest game - with Hervé Moulin as the center of the initial inspiration. Since its inception, the beauty contest game and the descriptive level k model has widely contributed to the growth of experimental and behavioral economics and expanded also to other areas within and outside of economics. We illustrate, in particular, the recent interaction between macro theorists and experimenters, who independently had worked on the puzzles and consequences due to beauty contest features. Furthermore, we introduce a new variety of the two-person beauty contest game with two different payoff structures that leads to different game-theoretic properties unperceived by naïve subjects and game theory experts alike.
    Keywords: Keynes, Beauty Contest Games, History, Level k, Micro-, Macro-, Neuro-Economic Experiments.
    JEL: C9 D84 D87 E12 N1 N80
    Date: 2016–10
  40. By: Ignacio Zubizarreta
    Abstract: En el presente artículo se presenta el desarrollo y los hechos más significativos de los últimos 30 años de la lechería argentina. En el mismo, se busca demostrar la inestabilidad cíclica del sector y la vinculación estrecha de sus crisis tanto con la situación nacional como con el ámbito internacional. A su vez, la profunda crisis que atraviesa actualmente el sector lechero obliga a repensar muchas cuestiones vinculadas a sus formas de producción, a sus estrategias para defender sus intereses y a sus modos de comercialización. Por ello, se plantea en el trabajo desplegar una trayectoria en retrospectiva esperando motivar ideas para que en el futuro, los errores y las decisiones que fueron tomadas en las distintas instancias y ámbitos vinculados a la lechería, puedan mitigarse mejor.
    Date: 2016–10
  41. By: Fischer, Stanley (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))
    Date: 2016–10–07

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.