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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2016‒10‒02
27 papers chosen by |
| By: | Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Universidad Carlos III, CEPR, and Groningen) |
| Abstract: | This essay offers a new set of historical GDP estimates from the demand and supply sides that revises and expands those in Prados de la Escosura (2003) and provides the basis to investigate Spain’s long run economic growth. It presents a reconstruction of production and expenditure series for the century prior to the introduction of modern national accounts. Then, it splices available national accounts sets over the period 1958-2015 through interpolation, as an alternative to conventional retropolation. The resulting national accounts series are linked to the ‘pre-statistical era’ estimates providing yearly series for GDP and its components since 1850. On the basis of new population estimates, GDP per head is derived. Trends in GDP per head are, then, drawn and, using new employment estimates, decomposed into labour productivity and the amount of work per person, and placed into international perspective. |
| Keywords: | historical national accounts, GDP, output, expenditure, splicing GDP, Spain |
| JEL: | C82 E01 N13 N14 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0103&r=his |
| By: | Jean-François Mignot (GEMASS - Groupe d'Etude des Méthodes de l'Analyse Sociologique de la Sorbonne - UP4 - Université Paris-Sorbonne - FMSH - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Why did cycling become professional as early as the late 19th century, while other sports (such as rugby) and other sport events (such as the Olympic Games) remained amateur until the 1980s? Why are the organizers of the most important cycling races private companies? To what extent have bicycle races changed since the late 19th century? And how does cycling reflect long-term economic changes? The history of professional road cycling helps to answer these questions and to understand many related phenomena. This chapter provides a long-term historical perspective on (1) professional road cycling’s economic agents, i.e. the public, race organizers, team sponsors and riders, and the relationships among them; (2) cycling’s governing body, the International Cycling Union; and (3) professional cycling’s final product, i.e. the show of bicycle races. The chapter focuses more specifically on the history of male professional road cycling in Western Europe since the late-19th century. It is founded on both an analysis of quantitative time series of the most important races and a review of the existing literature on the history of professional cycling, whether economic history, institutional history, cultural history or sport history. |
| Keywords: | Sports History,Cycling,Europe,Tour de France,Giro d'Italia,Vuelta a Espana,Cycling Race,International Cycling Union |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01326719&r=his |
| By: | George S. Tavlas (Bank of Greece) |
| Abstract: | The Great Depression was the most devastating and destructive economic event to afflict the global economy since the beginning of the twentieth century. What, then, were the origins of the Great Depression and what have we learned about the appropriate policy responses to economic depressions from that episode? This essay reviews two recently published books on the Great Depression. Eric Rauchway’s The Money Makers: How Roosevelt and Keynes Ended the Depression, Defeated Fascism, and Secured a Prosperous Peace (Basic Books, 2015) tells the story of the ways Franklin D. Roosevelt drew on the ideas of John Maynard Keynes to place monetary policy front-and-center to underpin the recovery from the Great Depression and to underwrite the blueprint of the Bretton-Woods System. Barry Eichengreen’s Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses — and Misuses — of History (Oxford University Press, 2015) shows the way the lessons learned from analysis of the Great Depression helped shape policy makers’ response to the 2007-08 financial crisis, thus helping to avoid many of the mistakes made by policy makers in the 1930s |
| Keywords: | Great Depression; Gold Standard; Bretton Woods System; 2008 Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | E52 F33 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:212&r=his |
| By: | Nicholas Apergis (University of Piraeus); Christina Christou (University of Piraeus); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria); Stephen M. Miller (University of Nevada, Las Vegas and University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the sparse literature on inequality convergence by empirically testing convergence across the U.S. States. This sample period encompasses a series of different periods that are discussed in the existing literature -- the Great Depression (1929-1944), the Great Compression (1945-1979), the Great Divergence (1980-present), the Great Moderation (1982-2007), and the Great Recession (2007-2009). This paper implements the relatively new methodology of panel convergence testing, recommended by Phillips and Sul (2007). This method examines the club convergence hypothesis, which argues that certain countries, states, sectors, or regions belong to a club that moves from disequilibrium positions to their club-specific steady-state positions. We find strong support for convergence through the late 1970s and early 1980s and then evidence of divergence. The divergence, however, moves the dispersion of inequality measures across states only a fraction of the way back to their levels in the early part of the 20th Century. |
| Keywords: | Club convergence, Inequality measures, Panel data, US states |
| JEL: | C22 D63 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2016-19&r=his |
| By: | Francesco Sergi (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this contribution to the epistemology and history of recent macroeconomics is to construct a clear understanding of econometric methods and problems in New Classical macroeconomics. Most historical work have focused so far on theoretical or policy implication aspects of this research program set in motion by Robert Lucas in the early seventies. On the contrary, the empirical and econometric works of New Classical macroeconomics have received little attention. I focus especially on the contributions gathered in Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, edited in 1981 by Lucas and Thomas Sargent. The main claim of this article is that the publication of this book must be regarded as a turn in macroeconomics, that would bring macroeconometric modeling methodology closer to Lucas's conception of models. The analysis of the New Classical macroeconometrics through the Lucas methodology allow us to propose an original historical account of the methods presented in Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, but also of the problems that flawed this approach. |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de cette contribution à l'épistémologie et à l'histoire de la pensée économique est de proposer une compréhension claire des méthodes et des problèmes économétriques de la nouvelle macroéconomie classique. La plupart des travaux historiques à ce sujet se sont focalisés sur les aspects théoriques ou sur les implications de politique économique de ce programme de recherche, lancé par Robert Lucas au début des années soixante-dix. En revanche, le travail empirique et économétrique de la nouvelle macroéconomie classique a reçu peu d'attention par les historiens. L'article s'intéresse plus particulièrement aux contributions rassemblées dans Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, ouvrage collectif de 1981 dirigé par Lucas et Thomas Sargent. La principale thèse de l'article est que la publication de ce livre entérine un tournant dans la modélisation macroéconométrique, en étroite résonance avec la conception méthodologique de Lucas sur les modèles. L'analyse de la macroéconométrie des nouveaux classiques par le prisme de la méthodologie lucasienne nous permet de proposer une vision historique originale des méthodes présentées dans Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, tout comme des problèmes qui ont entravé le développement de cette approche. |
| Keywords: | history of macroeconomics,macroeconometrics,modeling methodology,histoire de la macroéconomie,Lucas (Robert),Sargent (Thomas),macroéconométrie,méthodologie et modélisation |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01244393&r=his |
| By: | Daniyal Khan (Department of Economics, Seeta Majeed School of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences, Beaconhouse National University) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that given certain self-definitions and key defining features of economic sociology, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money can be read and interpreted as a text in economic sociology. Around this core argument, a case is built for a more open interaction and mutual appreciation between economic sociology and heterodox approaches to economics. The paper suggests how broader interpretations of classics of social science (such as the General Theory) may help us better appreciate the shared intellectual lineages and legacies of economics and sociology. It concludes with reflections on the historical development of the relationship between economics and sociology, and some speculation about their future. |
| Keywords: | John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory, economic sociology, heterodox economics, capitalism |
| JEL: | B31 B50 P10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:1605&r=his |
| By: | Reinhart, Carmen (Harvard University); Trebesch, Christoph (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | A sketch of the International Monetary Fund's 70-year history reveals an institution that has reinvented itself over time along multiple dimensions. This history is primarily consistent with a "demand driven" theory of institutional change, as the needs of its clients and the type of crisis changed substantially over time. Some deceptively "new" IMF activities are not entirely new. Before emerging market economies dominated IMF programs, advanced economies were its earliest (and largest) clients through the 1970s. While currency problems were the dominant trigger of IMF involvement in the earlier decades, banking crises and sovereign defaults became they key focus since the 1980s. Around this time, the IMF shifted from providing relatively brief (and comparatively modest) balance-of-payments support in the era of fixed exchange rates to coping with more chronic debt sustainability problems that emerged with force in the developing nations and now migrated to advanced ones. As a consequence, the IMF has engaged in "serial lending", with programs often spanning decades. Moreover, the institution faces a growing risk of lending into insolvency, most widespread among low income countries in chronic arrears to the official sector, but most evident in the case of Greece since 2010. We conclude that these practices impair the IMF's role as an international lender of last resort. |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:15-077&r=his |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Katherine Eriksson |
| Abstract: | We compile large datasets from Norwegian and US historical censuses to study return migration during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1913). Return migrants were somewhat negatively selected from the migrant pool: Norwegian immigrants who returned to Norway held slightly lower-paid occupations than Norwegian immigrants who stayed in the US, both before and after moving to the US. Upon returning to Norway, return migrants held higher-paid occupations than Norwegians who never moved, despite hailing from poorer backgrounds. They were also more likely to get married after return. These patterns suggest that despite being negatively selected, return migrants were able to accumulate savings and improve their economic circumstances once they returned home. |
| JEL: | J61 N31 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22659&r=his |
| By: | Reinhart, Carmen M. (Harvard University); Trebesch, Christoph (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | Two centuries of Greek debt crises highlight the pitfalls of relying on external financing. Since its independence in 1829, the Greek government has defaulted four times on its external creditors - with striking historical parallels. Each crisis is preceded by a period of heavy borrowing from foreign private creditors. As repayment difficulties arise, foreign governments step in, help to repay the private creditors, and demand budget cuts and adjustment programs as a condition for the official bailout loans. Political interference from abroad mounts and a prolonged episode of debt overhang and financial autarky follows. We conclude that these cycles of external debt and dependence are a perennial theme of Greek history, as well as in other countries that have been "addicted" to foreign savings. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:15-065&r=his |
| By: | Chen, Daniel L. |
| Abstract: | During World War I, the British military condemned over 3,000 soldiers to death, but only executed 12% of them; the others received commuted sentences. Many historians believe that the military command confirmed or commuted sentences for reasons unrelated to the circumstances of a particular case and that the application of the death penalty was essentially a random, “pitiless lottery.” Using a dataset on all capital cases during World War I, I statistically investigate this claim and find that the data are consistent with an essentially random process. Using this result, I exploit variation in commutations and executions within military units to identify the deterrent effect of executions, with deterrence measured by the elapsed time within a unit between the resolution of a death sentence (i.e., a commutation or execution) and subsequent absences within that unit. Absences are measured via handwritten trial records and “wanted” lists prepared by British military police units searching for deserters and preserved in war diaries and police gazettes. I find some limited evidence that executing deserters deterred absences, while executing Irish soldiers, regardless of the crime, spurred absences, particularly Irish absences. I present a model where perceived legitimacy of authority affects why people obey the law. |
| Keywords: | Compliance, Legitimacy, Deterrence |
| JEL: | K14 K42 N44 P48 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:31021&r=his |
| By: | Csomós, György |
| Abstract: | This analysis has relied on an empirical method to identify and rank cities as centres of the Hungarian economy from 1992 to 2012. After the change in the political and economic system of Hungary, a new economic climate emerged (e.g. Hungary joined the European Union, foreign direct investments appeared in the economy, special taxation regulations were introduced), which changed the position of cities. During this two-decade-long transformation, the dominance of the capital, Budapest, and its agglomeration considerably increased; the east-west dichotomy became more pronounced, while the economic role of the traditional industrial centres and that of some large cities weakened. Because of these processes, new types of economic centres emerged, which did not have a significant role in the national economy. Cities that became crucial economic actors because of the offshore operation of foreign multinational corporations are exceptional in this. The ultimate goal of this study is to introduce a straightforward urban hierarchy, establish a classification based on the economic profile of cities, and address the typical anomalies after the change in the political system. |
| Keywords: | urban hierarchy, industry profile, transformation, economic power, Hungary |
| JEL: | R00 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73948&r=his |
| By: | Clark, William C. (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper I sketch key episodes in the two thousand year history of interactions between society and environment that have shaped the City of London and its hinterlands. My purpose in writing it has been to provide an empirical puzzle for use in teaching and theorizing about the long term coevolution of social-environmental systems and the potential role of policy interventions in guiding that coevolution toward sustainability. I undertook it because while a lively body of theory has begun to emerge seeking to explain such coevolution, rich descriptive characterizations of how specific social-environmental systems have in fact changed over the long time periods (multi-decade to multi-century) relevant to sustainable development remain relatively rare. One result is that the field of sustainability science lacks a sufficient number of the rich empirical puzzles that any field of science needs to challenge its theorizing, modeling and predictions. This paper reflects the beginning of an effort to provide one such characterization on a topic central to sustainability: The long term development of cities and their hinterlands. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:15-047&r=his |
| By: | Schmalensee, Richard (MIT); Stavins, Robert (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This essay provides an overview of the major emissions trading programs of the past thirty years on which significant documentation exists, and draws a number of important lessons for future applications of this environmental policy instrument. References to a larger number of other emissions trading programs that have been implemented or proposed are included. |
| JEL: | Q40 Q48 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:15-069&r=his |
| By: | Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Janssens, E. |
| Abstract: | For many developing countries, historical inflation figures are rarely available. We propose a simple method, which aims to recover such figures thereby using prices of postal stamps, issued in earlier years. We illustrate our method for Suriname where annual inflation rates are available for 1961 until 2015, and where fluctuations in inflation rates are prominent. We estimate the inflation rates for the sample 1873 to 1960. Our main finding is that high inflation periods usually last no longer than 2 or 3 years. |
| Keywords: | inflation, postage stamps, price recovery, historical time series |
| JEL: | E31 N10 N16 |
| Date: | 2016–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:93332&r=his |
| By: | Frankel, Jeffrey (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | The paper reviews an event of 30 years ago from the perspective of today: a successful G-5 initiative to reverse what had been a dangerously overvalued dollar. The "Plaza Accord" is best viewed not as the precise product of the meeting on September 22, 1985, but as shorthand for a historic change in US policy that began when James Baker became Treasury Secretary in January of that year. The change had the desired effect, bringing down the dollar and reducing the trade deficit. In recent years concerted foreign exchange intervention, of the sort undertaken by the G-7 in 1985 and periodically over the subsequent decade, has died out. Indeed the G-7 in 2013, fearing "currency manipulation," specifically agreed to refrain from intervention in a sort of "anti-Plaza accord." But the day will come when coordinated foreign exchange intervention is again appropriate. |
| JEL: | F31 F33 N10 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:15-056&r=his |
| By: | Scheubel, Beatrice; Stracca, Livio |
| Abstract: | This paper critically reviews the theoretical basis for the provision of the global financial safety net (GFSN) and provides a comprehensive database covering four elements of the GFSN (foreign exchange reserves, IMF financing, central bank swap lines and regional financing arrangements) for over 150 countries in the sample period 1960-2015. This paper also presents some key stylised facts regarding the provision of GFSN financing and compares macroeconomic outcomes in capital flow reversal episodes depending on how much GFSN financing was available to countries. Finally, this paper concludes with some avenues for further research on the possible evolution of the GFSN. JEL Classification: F32, F33, F34, G01, H87 |
| Keywords: | financial globalisation, financial integration, global financial safety net, IMF |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2016177&r=his |
| By: | Leonardo Monasterio |
| Abstract: | Este trabalho apresenta um método de classificação da ancestralidade dos sobrenomes dos brasileiros nas seguintes classes: ibérica, italiana, japonesa, alemã e leste europeia. A partir de fontes históricas diversas, montou-se uma base de dados da ancestralidade dos sobrenomes. Essas informações formam a base para a aplicação de algoritmos de classificação de fuzzy matching e de machine learning nos mais de 46 milhões de trabalhadores da Relação Anual de Informações Sociais (Rais) Migra de 2013. A imensa maioria (96,4%) dos sobrenomes únicos da Rais foi identificada com o processo de fuzzy matching e os demais com o método proposto por Cavnar e Trenkle (1994). A comparação dos resultados do procedimento com dados sobre estrangeiros no Censo Demográfico de 1920 e a distribuição geográfica dos sobrenomes não ibéricos reforçam a acurácia do procedimento. This paper presents a method for classifying the ancestry of Brazilian surnames based on historical sources. The information obtained forms the basis for applying fuzzy matching and machine learning classification algorithms to more than 46 million workers in five categories: Iberian, Italian, Japanese, German and East European. The vast majority (96.4%) of the single surnames were identified using a fuzzy matching and the rest using a method proposed by Cavnar and Trenkle (1994). A comparison of the results of the procedures with data on foreigners in the 1920 Census and with the geographic distribution of non-Iberian surnames underscores the accuracy of the procedure. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2229&r=his |
| By: | Shoag, Daniel (Harvard University); Carollo, Nicholas (University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | Recent research has stressed the importance of long-run place effects on income and economic mobility, but the literature has struggled to isolate the causal impact of location. This paper provides new evidence on these effects using administrative data on over 100,000 Japanese- Americans who were interned during World War II. Internees were conditionally randomly assigned to camps in seven different states and held for several years. Restitution payments paid in the early 1990s to the universe of surviving internees allow us to measure their locations and outcomes nearly half a century after the camp assignments. Using this unique natural experiment we find, first, that camp assignment had a lasting effect on individuals' long-term locations. Next, using this variation, we find large place effects on individual economic outcomes like income, education, socioeconomic status, house prices, and housing quality. People assigned to richer locations do better on all measures. Random location assignment affected intergenerational economic outcomes as well, with families assigned to more socially mobile areas (as designated by Chetty et al., 2014) displaying lower cross-generational correlation in outcomes. Finally, we provide evidence that assignment to richer places impacted people's values and political views, a new and intriguing mechanism through which place effects operate. Together, this new causal evidence on location effects has broad implications for urban economics, as well as potential policy implications for policymakers struggling to resettle and integrate large refugee or immigrant populations. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:16-022&r=his |
| By: | Stefano Ugolini (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UT2 - Université Toulouse 2 - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - École Nationale de Formation Agronomique - ENFA) |
| Abstract: | In most 19th-century centralized states, national monetary unification has been attained thanks to the creation of provincial branch networks by banks of issue. Through a case study on Belgium, this paper investigates the causes and consequences of this phenomenon, as well as its operational implications. It shows that political pressure – aimed at reducing credit rationing, and hence at fostering economic development – was a key factor in pushing reluctant central bankers to extend their operations outside domestic financial centers. The success of monetary unification crucially depended on the incentive structure embedded in the implemented supervisory policies – aimed at reducing risk-taking in the provinces. |
| Abstract: | Dans la plupart des Etats centralisés, l'unification monétaire nationale a été atteinte au XIXe siècle par la création de réseaux de succursales de la banque d'émission dans les provinces. A travers une étude de cas sur la Belgique, ce chapitre analyse les causes et les conséquences de ce phénomène, aussi bien que ses implications opérationnelles. Nous montrons que les pressions de nature politique (dont le but était celui de réduire le rationnement de crédit et donc favoriser le développement économique) ont été le facteur principal poussant les frileux banquiers centraux à étendre leurs opérations en dehors des centres financiers domestiques. Le succès du processus d'unification monétaire dépendait de la structure d'incitations créée par les politiques de supervision adoptées (dont le but était celui de réduire la prise de risque dans les provinces). |
| Keywords: | Central banking,Banking supervision,Financial development,Banques centrales,Supervision bancaire,Développement financier |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01357723&r=his |
| By: | Bonica, Adam (Stanford University); Chilton, Adam S. (University of Chicago); Sen, Maya (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | The ideology of American lawyers has been a persistent source of discussion and debate. Two obstacles, however, have prevented this topic from being systematically studied: the sheer number of attorneys in the United States and the need for a methodology that makes comparing the ideology of specific individuals possible. In this paper, we present a comprehensive mapping of lawyers' ideologies that has overcome these hurdles. We use a new dataset that links the largest database of political ideology with the largest database of lawyers' identities to complete the most extensive analysis of the political ideology of American lawyers ever conducted. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:15-049&r=his |
| By: | Reurink, Arjan |
| Abstract: | Despite the ubiquity of illegality in today's financial markets, systematic scrutiny of the phenomenon of financial crime is lacking in the fields of economic sociology and political economy. One field of research in which the illegal behaviors of business elites have long taken center stage is that of white-collar crime research. This paper makes available to economic sociologists and political economists an overview of the most important conceptual insights that have been produced in the white-collar crime literature. In doing so, its aim is to provide economic sociologists and political economists with a conceptual foundation for future research on financial crime. The paper first traces the evolution of the white-collar crime concept. Subsequently, it investigates how white-collar crime scholars have conceptualized the way in which the empirical profile of white-collar crimes has evolved over the past decades and especially how the locus of such crimes has shifted away from industrial corporations to the financial services industry. It is argued that a fruitful avenue for future research on financial crime in economic sociology and political economy consists in studying in more detail the interactions between the changing character of white-collar crime and the broader capitalist dynamics associated with processes of financialization. |
| Abstract: | Trotz der Allgegenwart illegaler Handlungen auf den heutigen Finanzmärkten fehlt es der Wirtschaftssoziologie und der Politischen Ökonomie an Ansätzen, das Phänomen Finanzkriminalität systematisch zu untersuchen. Ein Bereich, in dem illegale Verhaltensweisen von Wirtschaftseliten schon lange im Mittelpunkt stehen, ist die Forschung zur Wirtschaftskriminalität. Das Papier bietet einen Überblick über die maßgeblichen Erkenntnisse in der wirtschaftskriminologischen Literatur und will eine konzeptuelle Basis für die künftige Erforschung von Finanzkriminalität in der Wirtschaftssoziologie und Politischen Ökonomie zur Verfügung stellen. Nach einer Darlegung des Konzepts der White-Collar-Kriminalität wird analysiert, wie der empirisch beobachtbare Wandel der vergangenen Jahrzehnte in der wirtschaftskriminologischen Forschung konzeptualisiert worden ist. Dabei wird insbesondere darauf eingegangen, dass sich die Tatorte der White-Collar-Kriminalität inzwischen von Industriekonzernen auf Unternehmen aus der Finanzdienstleistungsbranche verlagert haben. Ein Erfolg versprechender Weg für die künftige Forschung zur Finanzkriminalität liegt daher in einer detaillierteren Betrachtung des Wechselspiels, das sich zwischen den sich ändernden Charakteristika der White-Collar-Kriminalität und den weitreichenderen kapitalistischen Dynamiken vollzieht, die mit den Prozessen der Finanzialisierung verbunden sind. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:1610&r=his |
| By: | Metiu, Norbert; Hilberg, Björn; Grill, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether credit constraints in the US economy amplify the international propagation of US financial shocks. We model the dynamics of the US economy jointly with global macroeconomic and financial variables using a threshold vector autoregression. This model captures regime-specific dynamics conditional on the severity of credit constraints in the US economy. We identify three main episodes of tight credit in US financial history over the past thirty years. These occur in the late-1980s, in the early 2000s, and during the 2007-09 financial crisis. We find that US financial shocks are associated with a significant contraction in global economic activity in times of tight credit. By contrast, there is little impact of US financial shocks on the global economy in normal times. This asymmetry highlights an international dimension of the US financial accelerator mechanism. JEL Classification: C32, C34, E32, G01, F44 |
| Keywords: | financial frictions, financial shocks, nonlinear dynamics, spillover |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161954&r=his |
| By: | Nicolas GAVOILLE (Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, Latvia - Condorcet Center, University Rennes 1, France); Marijn VERSCHELDE (EISEG School of Management, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, France, and Center for Economic Studies, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the relation between electoral competition and po-litical selection, using a unique dataset containing detailed yearly information about members of the French National Assembly from 1958 to 2012. First, we innovate by using activity as a proxy for politicians’ quality. As we gathered information on the many aspects of deputies’ individual work, we use a non-parametric composite indicator of deputy activity that fully acknowledges the multidimensional nature of parliamentary work. Second, we do not impose any assumption about the relationship between electoral competition and political selection by using a fully nonparametric framework. Third, this method allows studying the evolution of the relationship between electoral competition and political selection over time. Overall, our results show that deputies elected in apriori contested districts have a higher overall activity, with the intensity of this relationship reaching its peak in the 80’s but constantly decreasing since then. |
| Keywords: | Competition, Election, Political Selection, Kernel Regression, Nonparametric Econometrics |
| JEL: | D72 J45 C14 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cccrwp:2016-02-ccr&r=his |
| By: | Döhrn, Roland; Filusch, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | Die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose ist ein gemeinsamer Konjunkturbericht von mehreren Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten über die Lage und Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft und der Wirtschaft in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Ihre Anfänge reichen bis in die ersten Jahre des Wiederaufbaus nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg zurück. Damals hatte sich zwischen der Verwaltung für Wirtschaft - sie war für die von den drei Westmächten besetzten Zonen des zusammengebrochenen Dritten Reiches zuständig - und der Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute eine enge Zusammenarbeit ergeben. Beide hatten ihren Sitz zunächst in Frankfurt. Nach der Errichtung der ersten Bundesregierung siedelte auch die Arbeitsgemeinschaft im Jahre 1950 nach Bonn um. Ihren Kern bildeten jene Institute, die wie das Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung in Berlin (DIW) und das Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel (IfW) nach dem Zusammenbruch des Dritten Reiches neue Präsidenten erhalten hatten oder wie das ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung gerade erst gegründet worden waren. Den Vorstand übernahmen die Präsidenten dieser Institute: Dr. Ferdinand Friedensburg, Berlin, Professor Dr. Fritz Baade, Kiel und Dr. Karl Wagner, München. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:107&r=his |
| By: | Gabriel Galvez-Behar (IRHiS - Institut de Recherches Historiques du Septentrion - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between French public research and industrial property is ambivalent and the state is currently trying to influence this relationship by encouraging public scientific institutions, including universities, to apply for more patents This article proposes a genealogy of this complex relationship, focused on the analysis of the role of key institutions. These include the Department of Inventions, the Agency for Scientific and Industrial Research and Inventions (ONRSII), the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) and the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA). The influence of major figures such as Paul Langevin or Frédéric Joliot-Curie is also detailed. The analysis highlights the interdependence of French scientific strategies and industrial property practices from the turning point of World War I. |
| Abstract: | La recherche publique française entretient des rapports ambivalents à la question de la propriété industrielle, que l’État tente aujourd’hui d’infléchir en incitant les institutions scientifiques publiques (dont les universités) à recourir plus volontiers au dépôt de brevets. Cet article propose une généalogie de ces rapports complexes, centrée sur l’analyse du rôle joué par des institutions majeures comme la Direction des Inventions, l’Office national des Recherches scientifiques et industrielles et des Inventions (ONRSII), le CNRS ou le Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique, ainsi que par de grandes figures telles que Paul Langevin ou Frédéric Joliot-Curie. S’éclaire ainsi la façon dont, en France, les stratégies d’organisation de l’activité scientifique et les pratiques en matière de propriété industrielle se sont mutuellement déterminées à partir du tournant de la Première Guerre mondiale. |
| Keywords: | 20th century,industrial property,history,management,research agencies,France, recherche publique , histoire ,propriété industrielle , France , XX siècle |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01309362&r=his |
| By: | Patterson, Thomas E. (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | What's the best predictor of which candidate will win the presidential nomination? The winner of the Iowa caucus? The winner of the New Hampshire primary? Actually neither is as good an indicator as the winner of what political scientists call "the invisible primary"--the period before a single primary or caucus vote is cast. A fast start in Iowa or New Hampshire is important. A candidate with a poor showing in both states is in trouble. Voters aren't interested, donors aren't interested, and reporters aren't interested in a candidate who finishes at the back of the pack. Yet, more often than not, the winner in Iowa has lost in New Hampshire. Since 1980, of the twelve open nominating races--those without an incumbent president seeking reelection--only Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 won both contests. In 1992, the eventual Democratic nominee, Bill Clinton, lost both, though he ran well enough in the two states to be seen as a viable candidate. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:16-023&r=his |
| By: | Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Cent ans après sa publication, l’ouvrage d’Henri Fayol, Administration industrielle et générale, passe pour être l’un des livres fondateurs des sciences de gestion. Il marque la naissance de l’entreprise moderne, avec la reconnaissance de la nouvelle figure du chef d’entreprise. Un siècle après, ce numéro d’Entreprises et Histoire, coordonné par Blanche Segrestin, vise à mieux caractériser le tournant que Fayol cherchait à théoriser : quelles ruptures percevait-il qui nécessitaient une nouvelle doctrine de gouvernement et de nouvelles formations pour les dirigeants ? Comment relier en particulier son effort théorique à son expérience pratique en tant qu’ingénieur et directeur, mais aussi en tant que géologue et créateur d’un laboratoire de recherche innovant ? Les articles réunis dans ce numéro montrent que Fayol a eu besoin de recourir à de nouveaux termes pour décrire les bouleversements industriels et stratégiques de l’époque, mais aussi d’introduire des concepts originaux pour faire face à l’intégration de la recherche scientifique et de l’innovation dans le cours des affaires. Autant de mutations qui, à l’heure où les pratiques du management sont remises en cause, permettent d’éclairer sous un nouveau jour les fondements du management moderne. |
| Keywords: | Fayol, innovation, histoire, chef d'entreprise, science, industrie |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01336829&r=his |