nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒09‒25
twenty-six papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. L’Histoire se répète. Why the liberalization of the EU vineyard planting rights regime may require another French Revolution (And why the US and French Constitutions may have looked very different without weak planting rights enforcement) By Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen
  2. Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein's Econometrics By Erich Pinzón-Fuchs
  3. The influence of nutrition through soil type on child mortality in southern Sweden, 1850-1914 By Hedefalk, Finn; Quaranta, Luciana; Bengtsson, Tommy
  4. Two Centuries of Finance and Growth in the United States, 1790-1980 By Howard Bodenhorn
  5. Historical Polities Data By Metin M. Cosgel
  6. Descriptive Findings on the Convergence of Female and Male Mortality in Europe By Alho, Juha
  7. The Labor Market Consequences of Refugee Supply Shocks By George J. Borjas; Joan Monras
  8. Le conseil d'administration : évolution des rôles dans les mutations du capitalisme By Hazar Ben Barka; Luc Marco
  9. GeoPopulation-Institution Hypothesis: Reconciling American Development Process and Reversal of Fortune within a Unified Growth Framework By Ho, Chi Pui
  10. An Economic History of the Tour de France, 1903-2015 By Jean-François Mignot
  11. The Relationship between Population Growth and Standard-of-Living Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel Granger Causality Test By Tsangyao Chang; Hsiao-Ping Chu; Frederick W. Deale; Rangan Gupta; Stephen M. Miller
  12. Capital-Labor Substitution, Institutions and Labor Shares By Daniel Berkowitz
  13. Time-Frequency Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty for the U.S.: Evidence from Historical Data By Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu; Aviral Kumar Tiwari; Stephen M. Miller; Rangan Gupta
  14. Historical distortion: How misuse of "public utility and "natural monopoly" misdirects U.S. telecommunications policy development By Cherry, Barbara A.
  15. Macroeconometric modeling as a "photographic description of reality" or as an "engine for the discovery of concrete truth" ? Friedman and Klein on statistical illusions By Erich Pinzón-Fuchs
  16. Comment : Inferring Trade Costs from Trade Booms and Trade Busts By Guillaume Corlay; Stéphane Dupraz; Claire Labonne; Anne Muller; Céline Antonin; Guillaume Daudin
  17. The Works of Jules Dupuit By François Vatin; Jean-Pascal Simonin; Luc Marco
  18. The New Classical Explanation of the Stagflation: A Psychological Way of Thinking By Aurélien Goutsmedt
  19. Colonialismo e História By Isabel Henriques
  20. From Pralines to Multinationals: The Economic History of Belgian Chocolate By Maria Garrone; Hannah Pieters; Johan Swinnen
  21. The Long-Term Costs of Government Surveillance: Insights from Stasi Spying in East Germany By Andreas Lichter; Max Löffler; Sebastian Siegloch
  22. Industrious Selection: Explaining Five Revolutions and Two Divergences in Eurasian Economic History within a Unified Growth Framework By Ho, Chi Pui
  23. Henri Fayol, théoricien de l’entreprise innovante By Armand Hatchuel; Blanche Segrestin
  24. Inflation Expectations in the Recovery from the Great Depression By Andrew Jalil; Gisela Rua
  25. Beyond the distinction between necessaries and luxuries By Pugno, Maurizio
  26. Aging and the Inherited Wealth of Nations By ONDER, Harun; PESTIEAU, Pierre

  1. By: Giulia Meloni; Johan Swinnen
    Abstract: In 2008, the EU voted to liberalize its system of planting rights which has strictly regulated vine plantings in the EU. However, after an intense lobbying campaign the liberalization of the planting right system was overturned in 2013 and new regulations created an even more restrictive system. European wine associations complained about the detrimental effects of the new regulations. There is a precedent in history. In 1726, the French political philosopher and landowner Montesquieu complained to the French King about the prohibition on planting new vines. Montesquieu was not successful in his demands to remove the planting rights. Old and recent history suggests that political forces against liberalization of planting rights are very strong. Only the French Revolution in 1789 led to a fundamental liberalization of planting rights. The “liberal period” of the 19th century was sustained by the combination of the French Revolution’s liberal ideology, the thirst for wine of Napoleon’s armies and diseases that wiped out most of the French vineyards. That said, in the past and the present, enforcement of planting rights is a major problem. In fact, despite the official restrictions, Montesquieu managed to plant his vines, allowing him to become a successful wine producer and merchant and to travel and to spend time thinking, discussing and ultimately writing up his ideas which influenced much of the Western world’s constitutions.
    Date: 2015
  2. By: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Lawrence R. Klein (1920-2013) played a major role in the construction and in the further dissemination of econometrics from the 1940s. Considered as one of the main developers and practitioners of macroeconometrics, Klein's influence is reflected in his application of econometric modelling " to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies " for which he was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1980. The purpose of this paper is to give an account of Klein's image of econometrics focusing on his early period as an econometrician (1944-1950), and more specifically on his period as a Cowlesman (1944-1947). Independently of how short this period might appear, it contains a set of fundamental publications and events, which were decisive for Klein's conception of econometrics, and which formed Klein's unique way of doing econometrics. At least four features are worth mentioning, which characterise this uniqueness. First, Klein was the only Cowlesman who carried on the macroeconometric programme beyond the 1940s, even if the Cowles had already abandoned it. Second, his pluralistic approach in terms of economic theory allowed him not only to use the Walrasian framework appraised by the Cowles Commission and especially by T.C. Koopmans, but also the Marxian and Keynesian frameworks, enriching the process of model specification and motivating economists of different stripes to make use of the nascent econometrics. Third, Klein differentiated himself from the rigid methodology praised at Cowles; while the latter promoted the use of highly sophisticated methods of estimation, Klein was convinced that institutional reality and economic intuition would contribute more to econometrics than the sophistication of these statistical techniques. Last but not least, Klein never gave up what he thought was the political objective of econometrics: economic planning and social reform.
    Keywords: Economic Epistemology,History of Econometrics,History of Macroeconometric Modelling,Pluralism in Econometrics,Lawrence R Klein,Cowles Commission
    Date: 2016–09–12
  3. By: Hedefalk, Finn (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Quaranta, Luciana (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Bengtsson, Tommy (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: Child mortality differed greatly within rural regions in Europe before and during the mortality decline. Not much is known about the role of nutrition in such geographic differences, and about the factors affecting the nutritional level and hence the resistance to diseases. Focusing on nutrition, we analyse the effects of soil type, used as an indicator of the farm-level agricultural productivity and hence of nutritional status, on mortality of children aged 1-15 living in five rural parishes in southern Sweden, 1850-1914. Using longitudinal demographic data combined with unique geographic micro-data on residential histories, the effect of soil type on the mortality risks are analysed considering as outcome all-cause mortality and mortality from non-airborne and airborne infectious diseases. Soil type primarily affected the mortality of farmers’ children, but not labourers’ children. Particularly, farmers’ children residing in areas with very high proportions of clayey till (75-100% coverage) experienced lower risks of dying compared to children residing in areas with other soil types such as clay and sandy soils. Certain soil types seem to have influenced the agricultural productivity, which, in turn, affected the nutrition of the farmers’ children and thus their likelihood of dying. The results indicate a relatively important role of nutrition as a mortality predictor for these children. As, to our knowledge, the first longitudinal study on the micro-level that analyses the effects of soil type on mortality in a historical rural society, we contribute to the literature on the role of nutrition on the risk of dying in a pre-industrial society
    Keywords: child mortality; geographic context variables; GIS; historical demography; soil quality; southern Sweden
    JEL: J10 N50 N90
    Date: 2016–09–21
  4. By: Howard Bodenhorn
    Abstract: Do efficient financial markets and institutions promote economic growth? Have they done so in the past? In this essay, to be included in the Handbook of Finance and Development (edited by Thorsten Beck and Ross Levine), I survey a large and diverse historical literature that explores the connection between finance and growth in US history. The US financial system was important in mobilizing savings, allocating capital, exerting corporate control, and mitigating borrower opportunism. US finance was characterized by a wide variety of intermediaries – commercial banks, savings banks, building and loan associations, mortgage companies, investment banks and securities markets – that emerged to fill specific financial niches, compete with and complement the activities of existing intermediaries. The weight of the evidence is consistent with the interpretation that finance facilitated and encouraged growth. Despite the breadth and diversity of approaches, there remain many potentially fruitful lines of further inquiry.
    JEL: G2 N2
    Date: 2016–09
  5. By: Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: For a systematic analysis of the relationship between state and religion over time, a new dataset has been developed, called “Historical Polities Data.” It includes annual information on the territories occupied by today’s nation states since the year 1000. This brief essay describes the history of the project, its contents and sources, and plans for future work. The objectives are to provide background information for research using the data, acknowledge the contributions of numerous students who assisted in its construction, share insights with other investigators engaged in similar data construction projects, and identify the limitations of the data and areas that need further development.
    Keywords: state, government, religion, polity, historical data, comparative history
    JEL: C8 H10 N30 N40 P5 Z12
    Date: 2016–09
  6. By: Alho, Juha
    Abstract: Female life expectancy has almost universally been higher than male life expectancy. But, both have increased rapidly during the past century. European countries differ as regards the magnitude and time trends of the female-male difference. In countries that can be characterised as Egalitarian from the point of view of gender equality, the difference increased rapidly after World War II. It is thought that a major factor in this was then wider adoption of smoking on the part of males. Subsequently the gap has clearly narrowed, and it is believed that the narrowing continues. In countries that can be characterised as Traditional from the point of view of gender equality, the gap started to widen already a century ago, with acceleration after World War II. these countries show only limited evidence of subsequent narrowing. In former socialist countries the gap has been large, and shows little narrowing. These developments are described in detail by graphical displays. It is shown that considerable heterogeneity exists in the time trends within the three groups of European countries.
    Keywords: Female advantage, historical mortality data, life expectancy, mortality, survival probabilities
    Date: 2016–09–20
  7. By: George J. Borjas; Joan Monras
    Abstract: The continuing inflow of hundreds of thousands of refugees into many European countries has ignited much political controversy and raised questions that require a fuller understanding of the determinants and consequences of refugee supply shocks. This paper revisits four historical refugee shocks to document their labor market impact. Specifically, we examine: The influx of Marielitos into Miami in 1980; the influx of French repatriates and Algerian nationals into France at the end of the Algerian Independence War in 1962; the influx of Jewish émigrés into Israel after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s; and the exodus of refugees from the former Yugoslavia during the long series of Balkan wars between 1991 and 2001. We use a common empirical approach, derived from factor demand theory, and publicly available data to measure the impact of these shocks. Despite the differences in the political forces that motivated the various flows, and in economic conditions across receiving countries, the evidence reveals a common thread that confirms key insights of the canonical model of a competitive labor market: Exogenous supply shocks adversely affect the labor market opportunities of competing natives in the receiving countries, and often have a favorable impact on complementary workers. In short, refugee flows can have large distributional consequences.
    JEL: J23 J6
    Date: 2016–09
  8. By: Hazar Ben Barka (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Luc Marco (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The research aims to study the Board of Directors' spot on capitalism transitions. Methodology connecting historical and critical literature review was engaged to conduct our analysis. Since the early 20th century three capitalisms have succeeded: the managerial, the shareholder and the stakeholder. Organizations theories have tried to describe these changes and mainly corporate governance models that result. This capitalism’ mutations stressed privileged actors who have influenced and governed company. Our development focuses on the Board of directors with reference to the other two key governance actors: shareholders and managers. The results emphasize the importance of trust and control as two interdependent elements in the definition of CA functioning.
    Abstract: La définition du gouvernement d'entreprise, aussi bien par les institutions de régulation des marchés financiers que par les recherches académiques, a suscité plusieurs controverses au fil du temps. Selon Clarke (2004), cela va d'un ensemble de mécanismes de contrôle de l'équipe managériale, mis en œuvre par les actionnaires pour contrebalancer les coûts d'agence, à un système qui définit l'exercice du pouvoir entre les différents partenaires de la firme. Le gouvernement d'entreprise serait donc intimement lié aux évolutions économiques et précisément aux transformations du capitalisme financier. Gourevitch et Shinn (2005) définissent les politiques du capitalisme économique à travers deux composantes. Tout d'abord, le degré de protection de l'actionnaire minoritaire ; ensuite, le type de coordination entre le libéralisme du marché et l'intervention des institutions dans la réglementation des marchés financiers. On ne peut donc étudier l'évolution du gouvernement d'entreprise sans rappeler les phases du capitalisme financier, ses avancées et ses dérives. Pour cela une présentation des principaux auteurs qui se sont intéressés à l'étude de la vie des organisations et de leurs évolutions permettrait de déceler les différents acteurs clés de chaque étape et les rôles accordés au conseil d'administration à travers les différentes transitions dans les modèles de gouvernement d'entreprise. L'objectif de cette recherche est d'intercepter à travers ces évolutions et l'identification des acteurs clés agissant sur le modèle global (investisseurs, financiers, État etc.), la place accordé au conseil d'administration. Ceci nous permettra de faire un rapprochement avec les mutations des modèles de gouvernement d'entreprise, qui ne sont qu'une adaptation dynamique à ces contextes et réalités économiques. L'approche que nous poursuivons est donc l'approche relationnelle des organisations. Le développement poursuit la tâche de relier les deux dimensions : macro-économique et le marché.
    Keywords: Organizations theories,France, Board of directors,capitalism’ mutations,Mutations,Capitalisme,Conseil d’administration,Théories des organisations
    Date: 2016–06–17
  9. By: Ho, Chi Pui
    Abstract: We develop a unified growth theory for the Western Hemisphere during the colonization era. We posit a unified growth model with transatlantic migration and slavery trade to reconcile development in the Thirteen Colonies/United States during AD1700-AD1860. Then we apply the model across American regions/countries, and propose the GeoPopulation-Institution hypothesis to explain divergence: whenever its geographic or political environments relatively favored the buildup of Black slaves (or non-White forced labor), through slavery institution that disincentivized the Blacks to make improvements, a region/country was likely to suffer a reversal of fortune. Geography, population and institution are inseparable in understanding American economic history.
    Keywords: GeoPopulation-Institution Hypothesis; American Economic History; Reversal of fortune; Unified Growth Theory; Transatlantic Migration and Slavery Trade
    JEL: E10 N10 O5
    Date: 2016–09–04
  10. By: Jean-François Mignot (GEMASS - Groupe d'Etude des Méthodes de l'Analyse Sociologique de la Sorbonne - UP4 - Université Paris-Sorbonne - FMSH - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Since its creation in 1903, the Tour de France has remained the biggest of all professional cycling events. This chapter aims to present three aspects of the economic history of the Tour de France and what they tell us about the economic history of sport. First, the Tour has always been owned by private newspaper and media companies. This is why I analyze the level and composition of these companies’ turnover, their business strategies and the reasons for their overall success. Second, Tour riders have always been professionals. This is why I analyze riders’ incomes and prize money and their distribution, which shows clear “winner-takes-all” aspects. Third, the demand for sport shows by Tour spectators reveals broad trends in Europe’s economic history since the early 20th century: the diffusion of bicycles, newspapers and mass consumption, the increase in leisure time, and the advent of the mass media.
    Keywords: sport,Economic history,Cycling,Tour de France
    Date: 2016–08–26
  11. By: Tsangyao Chang (Feng Chia University); Hsiao-Ping Chu (Feng Chia University); Frederick W. Deale (University of Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria); Stephen M. Miller (University of Nevada, Las Vegas and University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: This paper examines the linkages between population growth and standard-of-living growth in 21 countries over the period of 1870-2013. We apply the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (2006), which accounts for both dependency and heterogeneity across countries. We find one-way Granger causality running from population growth to standard-of-living growth for Finland, France, Portugal, and Sweden, one-way Granger causality running from standard-of-living growth to population growth for Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway and Switzerland, two-way causality for Austria and Italy, and no causal relationship for Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sri Lanka, the UK, the USA, and Uruguay. Dividing the sample into two subsamples due to a structural break yields different results over the two periods of 1871-1951 and 1952-2013. Our empirical results suggest important policy implications for these 21 countries as the directions of causality differ across countries and time period.
    Keywords: Population Growth; Standard-of-Living Growth; Dependency and Heterogeneity; Bootstrap Panel Causality Test
    JEL: C32 C33 O40 Q56
    Date: 2016–09
  12. By: Daniel Berkowitz
    Abstract: In influential studies, Piketty (2014) and Karabarbounis and Neiman (2014) provide related explanations for the growth in economic inequality around the world since the mid-1980s. A driving force in both studies is that it is easy to substitute labor with capital or, in technical terms, the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor exceeds unity. However, in a critique of these studies, Acemoglu and Robinson (2015) argue that political factors that shape the evolution of institutions have had a more profound impact on inequality. We study the relative importance of these channels in Chinese manufacturing where labor shares have recently exhibited sharp declines and the substitution elasticity of capital for labor generally exceeds unity. Our counter-factual analysis indicates that institutional factors that were shaped by political decisions including declining employment protections and product market liberalizationare more important than capital-labor substitution.
    Date: 2016–01
  13. By: Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu (Politehnica University of Timisoara); Aviral Kumar Tiwari (IBS Hyderabad, IFHE University); Stephen M. Miller (University of Nevada, Las Vegas and University of Connecticut); Rangan Gupta (University of Pretoria)
    Abstract: We provide new evidence on the relationship between inflation and its uncertainty in the U.S. on an historical basis, covering the period 1775-2014. First, we use a bounded approach for measuring inflation uncertainty, as proposed by Chan et al. (2013), and we compare the results with the Stock and Watson (2007) method. Second, we employ the wavelet methodology to analyze the co-movements and causal effects between the two series. Our results provide evidence of a relationship between inflation and its uncertainty that varies across time and frequency. First, we show that in the medium- and long-runs, the Freidman–Ball hypothesis holds when the measure of uncertainty is unbounded, while if the opposite applies, the Cukierman–Meltzer reasoning prevails. Second, we discover mixed evidence about the inflation–uncertainty nexus in the short-run, findings which explain the mixed results reported to date in the empirical literature.
    Keywords: historical inflation rate, uncertainty, continuous wavelet transform, bounded series, U.S.
    JEL: C22 E31 N11 N12
    Date: 2016–09
  14. By: Cherry, Barbara A.
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper discusses a longstanding debate between two empirical approaches to macroeconomics: the econometrics program represented by Lawrence R. Klein, and the statistical economics program represented by Milton Friedman. I argue that the differences between these two approaches do not consist in the use of different statistical methods, economic theories or political ideas. Rather, these differences are deeply rooted in methodological principles and modeling strategies inspired by the works of Léon Walras and Alfred Marshall, which go further than the standard opposition of general vs. partial equilibrium. While Klein’s Walrasian approach necessarily considers the economy as a whole, despite the economist’s inability to observe or understand the system in all its complexity, Friedman’s Marshallian approach takes into account this inability and considers that economic models should be perceived as a way to construct systems of thought based on the observation of specific and smaller parts of the economy.
    Keywords: Lawrence R. Klein, Milton Friedman, macroeconometric modeling, Cowles Commission, National Bureau of Economic Research, empirical approaches to macroeconomics, controversy on statistical illusions, Walras-Marshall methodological divide.
    Date: 2016–09–12
  16. By: Guillaume Corlay (ENSAE); Stéphane Dupraz (Colombia University); Claire Labonne (PSE - Banque de France); Anne Muller (ENSAE); Céline Antonin (OFCE-Sciences Po); Guillaume Daudin (Université Paris-Dauphine OFCE-Sciences PO)
    Abstract: Jacks et al. (2011) offer an alternative to price gaps to quantify trade costs. Implementing a method which consists in deducing international trade costs from trade flows, they argue that the reduction in trade costs was the main driving force of trade growth during the first globalization (1870-1913), whereas economic expansion was the main driving force during the second globalization (1950-2000). We argue that this important result is driven by the use of an ad hocaggregation method. What Jacks et al. (2011) capture is the difference in the relative starting trade of dyads experiencing faster trade growth in the first and second globalization. More generally, we cast doubts on the possibility to reach conclusions of such nature with a method that infers trade costs from trade flows, and then uses these costs to explain trade flows. We argue that it can only rephrase the information already contained in openness ratios.
    Keywords: Trade Costs, globalization, gravity model, aggregation, structure effect
    JEL: F14 N70
    Date: 2016–07
  17. By: François Vatin (IDHES - Institutions et Dynamiques Historiques de l'Économie et de la Société - ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8, Vincennes-Saint-Denis - Université d'Evry-Val d'Essonne - UPOND - Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Pascal Simonin (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Luc Marco (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This book is the translation, actualized and augmented, of a precedent scientific book, published in 2002 at the University Press of Angers. Since fifteen years, it allows to profoundly refunded the researches on the engineer and the economist Jules Dupuit (1804-1866). This new version has two parts : the first study the intellectual way form calculus to utility theory. The second deals with the analytical economic thought of the author, so important into the history of the political economy and management. Completing the general works published in 2009 at the Economica's editions, this new book will interest the economists, managers, sociologists and all the historians in their comprehension of the analytic way of this prolific author. It'll be able to push in the international research on Jules Dupuit.
    Abstract: Ce livre est la traduction, actualisée et augmentée, d’un ouvrage scientifique paru en 2002 aux Presses Universitaires d’Angers. En une quinzaine d’années il a permis de renouveler profondément les recherches sur l’ingénieur et économiste Jules Dupuit (1804-1866). Cette nouvelle version contient deux grandes parties : la première étudie le chemin intellectuel qui va du calcul d’ingénieur à la théorie de l’utilité. La deuxième traite de l’analyse économique de cet auteur, si important dans l’histoire de la pensée analytique de l’économie et de la gestion. En complément des œuvres choisies publiées en 2009 à Paris aux Editions Economica, ce nouveau livre pourra intéresser les économistes, les gestionnaires, les sociologues et tous les historiens qui veulent comprendre le cheminement analytique de cet auteur prolifique, œuvrant au cœur du XIXe siècle français. Il pourra relancer à son tour la recherche internationale sur Jules Dupuit.
    Keywords: Economics and theory of the firm,Sciences économiques et théorie de la firme
    Date: 2016–05–24
  18. By: Aurélien Goutsmedt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The stagflation phenomenon is regarded as one of the cause of the Keynesian paradigm breakdown in the 1970s. The New Classical school took advantage of this breakdown. However, its discourse on the stagflation was not so clear and remained in a implicit shape. The paper aim at rebuilding the New Classical tale of the stagflation that stroke the United-States economy in the 1970s. We show that psychological ideas (expectations, beliefs, credibility) lay in the heart of the explanation. In the same time, oil shocks were left in the background. Besides, the New Classical school put much more emphasis on the inflation issue and experienced some difficulties to deal with the increase in unemployment.
    Keywords: History of Macroeconomics,Macroeconomics,New Classical School,Stagflation
    Date: 2016–02
  19. By: Isabel Henriques
    Abstract: Assistimos hoje no campo da reflexão histórica mundial à veemência do reaparecimento do fenómeno colonial, que se tem vindo a impor não só pela sua natureza de ‘temática das minorias’ , mas também pelo duplo facto de, por um lado, permitir repensar em termos ‘pós-coloniais’, as identidades nacionais dos colonizadores e dos colonizados, cuja emancipação passou pela recuperação da sua própria história, pela afirmação da sua identidade histórica e pela preservação da sua memória, e por outro, exigir uma maior densidade interrogativa sobre a politização e a ideologização interna da Histó Mozambique as a case study.
    Keywords: colonialismo, história, estudos pós-coloniais
    Date: 2015–01
  20. By: Maria Garrone; Hannah Pieters; Johan Swinnen
    Abstract: Belgium is associated with high-quality chocolate products and Belgian companies play an important role in cocoa processing. However, in historical perspective the global success and reputation of Belgian chocolate is a relatively recent phenomenon. Especially since the 1980s exports of “Belgian chocolates” have grown exponentially. We document the growth of the sector and discuss its determinants. Today, the very concept of “Belgian chocolate” faces challenges, as successful companies have been taken over by international investors and because its success has led others to imitate. Recently there have been attempts to protect “true” Belgian chocolate.
    Keywords: Chocolate, Belgium, Economic History, Internationalization
    Date: 2016
  21. By: Andreas Lichter; Max Löffler; Sebastian Siegloch
    Abstract: Despite the prevalence of government surveillance systems around the world, causal evidence on their social and economic consequences is lacking. Using county-level variation in the number of Stasi informers within Socialist East Germany during the 1980s and accounting for potential endogeneity, we show that more intense regional surveillance led to lower levels of trust and reduced social activity in post-reunification Germany. We also find substantial and long-lasting economic effects of Stasi spying, resulting in lower self-employment, higher unemployment and larger out-migration throughout the 1990s and 2000s. We further show that these effects are due to surveillance and not alternative mechanisms. We argue that our findings have important implications for contemporary surveillance systems.
    Keywords: government surveillance, trust, social ties, East Germany
    JEL: H11 N34 N44 P20
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Ho, Chi Pui
    Abstract: We develop a unified growth theory with Industrious Selection to explain the Five Revolutions in the development process (Agricultural Revolution, Structural Transformation, Industrial Revolution, Industrious Revolution, Demographic Revolution) and the Two Divergences in Eurasia (Little Divergence, Great Divergence) in AD0-AD2000. Industrious Selection refers to industrious (hardworking and cooperative) individuals gradually dominating the population composition through labor-leisure optimization and income effect on births. It raises working hours, improves production efficiency and accelerates development. The Black Death expedited Industrious Selection in late-Medieval Europe. Together with the population scale effect, the theory reconciles the British development process and Eurasian economic divergence during AD0-AD2000.
    Keywords: Industrious Selection; Eurasian Economic History; Unified Growth Theory
    JEL: E10 N10 O5
    Date: 2016–09–04
  23. By: Armand Hatchuel (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Blanche Segrestin (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Have we correctly read Henri Fayol? His work is still reduced to general principles of administration that seem rigid and trivial. Yet, he has been a great innovative leader that considered scientific research as a major task of the business executive. A new reading of Fayol's masterpiece shows that he introduced sophisticated notions: " the unknown " , " the program of action " , " the advancement " , which meaning was erased by his translators or forgotten. Coming from political and social philosophy, they describe a manager that faces a future made unpredictable by the emergence of science and assigns to the modern entreprise a new collective purpose.
    Abstract: At on bien lu Henri Fayol ? Sa pensée a trop souvent été réduite à l'énoncé de principes d'administration rigides et banaux. Il fut pourtant un dirigeant innovateur qui considérait la recherche scientifique comme une responsabilité majeure du chef d'entreprise. A partir d'une relecture de son oeuvre principale, nous montrons que Fayol introduit des notions peu communes « d'inconnu », de « programme d'action », et de « perfectionnement » qui ont été par la suite banalisées ou oubliées. Puisées dans la philosophie politique et sociale, elles décrivent un dirigeant qui veut faire face à l'indétermination de l'avenir que provoque l'émergence de la science et donner à l'entreprise une mission collective nouvelle.
    Keywords: Fayol, entreprise, innovation, histoire, science, chef d'entreprise
    Date: 2016–09–06
  24. By: Andrew Jalil; Gisela Rua
    Abstract: In this note, we draw on our recent research on the role of inflation expectations in the recovery from the Great Depression of the 1930s (Jalil and Rua, 2016a and 2016b) to provide insights into the actions that can successfully shift inflation expectations and stimulate economic recovery.
    Date: 2016–08–30
  25. By: Pugno, Maurizio
    Abstract: The distinction made by the classical economists between necessaries and luxuries is weakened by two problems: how to draw the line between necessaries and luxuries in advanced modern economies; how to evaluate luxuries, whether positively for individual’s freedom and for the economy, or negatively because they appear unethical. This paper examines a possible way out of these problems that emerges both from Scitovsky’s approach to “human welfare” and from some overlooked insights of Marshall, Hawtrey, and Keynes, the Cambridge economists who inspired Scitovsky. The proposal is to split luxuries into two components, and to redefine them, together with necessaries, on the basis of people’s motivations and goals, as well as of the effects on well-being and on the economy.
    Keywords: necessaries, luxuries, Scitovsky, well-being, welfare, Marshall, Hawtrey, Keynes
    JEL: B20 D11 D60 I25 I31
    Date: 2016–07
  26. By: ONDER, Harun; PESTIEAU, Pierre (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
    Date: 2016–02–20

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