nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒06‒25
sixteen papers chosen by

  1. The Rise of the Cotton Trade in Brazil during the Industrial Revolution By Thales Augusto Zamberlan Pereira
  2. Puncturing the Malthus delusion: structural change in the British economy before the industrial revolution, 1500-1800 By Patrick Wallis; Justin Colson; David Chilosi
  3. Comparing Income and Wealth Inequality in Pre-Industrial economies. Lessons from Spain in the 18th century By Esteban Nicolini; Fernando Ramos Palencia
  4. Unfolding the Turbulent Century: A Reconstruction of China's Economic Development, 1840-1912 By MA, Ye; JONG, Herman de
  5. US Crashes of 2008 and 1929 How did the French market react? An empirical study. By Raphael Hekimian; David Le Bris
  6. From realism to instrumentalism - and back? Methodological implications of changes in the epistemology of economics By Gräbner, Claudius
  7. The "German Party" in Russia in the 1730s: Exploring the Ideas of the Ruling Faction By Igor Fedyukin
  8. The Freedom of the Prices: Hayek's Road to Serfdom Reassessed By Makovi, Michael
  9. Remoteness equals backwardness? Human capital and market access in the European regions: insights from the long run. By Claude Diebolt; Ralph Hippe
  10. John Bates Clark: primo marginalista statunitense ed economista sociale By Messori, Luciano; Orsini, Raimondello
  12. Regional human capital inequality in Europe in the long run, 1850 – 2010 By Claude Diebolt; Ralph Hippe
  13. Cien años de acumulación de capital en Argentina: tasa de ganancia, composición del capital y distribución del producto By Esteban Ezequiel Maito
  14. CDM 20 Years After By Lööf, Hans; Mairesse, Jacques; Mohnen, Pierre
  15. A Narrative Explanation of Breakpoints and Convergence Patterns in Yugoslavia and its Successor States 1952-2015 By Ivo Bicanic; Milan Deskar-Škrbić; Jurica Zrnc
  16. The Rise and Fall of U.S. Farm Productivity Growth, 1910-2007 By Alston, Julian; Andersen, Matt; Pardey, Phil

  1. By: Thales Augusto Zamberlan Pereira
    Abstract: When and why did Brazilian cotton become important to the Industrial Revolution? After 1780, Brazil increased substantially its trade share relative to other cotton suppliers. Between 1791 and 1801, Brazilian cotton represented 40 percent of raw cotton imports in Liverpool, rivalling the West Indies. Using archival data between 1760 and 1808, this paper shows that Brazil benefited from increasing British demand for a new variety of cotton staple that emerged with mechanized textile production. Previous explanations for the rise of Brazilian cotton trade attributed it to the revolutions in the Caribbean in the 1790s, and the American Revolutionary War, which ended in 1783. Evidence, however, suggests that these explanations are incomplete or incorrect. The United States did not export cotton to Britain before 1790, and British imports from the West Indies did not fall after the revolutions. The increase in cotton trade between Brazil and Britain can be explained by four parallel stories: 1) how diplomatic conflicts between Portugal and Britain involving the wine trade increased Brazilian cotton importance in the Portuguese trade balance; 2) how cotton plantations in Brazil managed to respond to Britain’s increasing demand after the 1780s; 3) why the West Indies were not a viable alternative to Brazilian cotton; 4) why the Brazilian cotton staple had natural advantages over initial alternatives for new textile machines in Britain.
    Keywords: Cotton Trade, Colonial Brazil, Industrial Revolution.
    JEL: N56 N73 N76
    Date: 2016–05–30
  2. By: Patrick Wallis; Justin Colson; David Chilosi
    Abstract: Accounts of structural change in the pre-modern British economy vary substantially. We present the first time series of male labour sectoral shares before 1800, using a large sample of probate and apprenticeship data to produce national and county-level estimates. England experienced a rapid decline in the agricultural share between the early seventeenth and the beginning of the eighteenth centuries, associated with rising agricultural and especially industrial productivity; Wales saw only limited changes. Our results provide further evidence of early structural change, highlighting the significance of the mid-seventeenth century as a turning point in English economic development.
    Keywords: Labour force; sectoral distribution; labour productivity; Britain; Wales
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2016–06
  3. By: Esteban Nicolini (Economics Department, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Fernando Ramos Palencia (Department of Economics, Quantitative Methods and Economic History, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
    Abstract: Research on the history of inequality in pre-industrial economies has focused mainly on either wealth or income inequality. The most common problem with wealth inequality is the lack information about the bottom of the distribution while the main problem with income inequality is the lack of data to characterize the top of the distribution. Given that in general these approaches are based in different kinds of sources and methodologies, the results are not easy to compare and the links between the two distributions are difficult to establish. In this paper we use a unique data set for different regions of Spain circa 1750 and present results (the first for any pre-20th century economy) of inequality of both income and wealth for the same sample of households. Information of wealth comes from probate inventories while information of income comes from the Ensenada Cadastre. The main results of the paper are that poor households are not completely absent from our data set of inventories, that the position of a household in the distribution of income is closely associated to its position in the distribution of wealth and that an increase of a household’s wealth is associated to a less-than-proportional increase in the household’s income.
    Keywords: inequality, income, wealth, Spain, probate inventories, Ensenada Cadastre
    JEL: D31 N33 O15
    Date: 2016–05
  4. By: MA, Ye; JONG, Herman de
    Abstract: This paper reconstructs China's economic development between 1840 and 1912 with an estimation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides for the first time a time series of GDP (per capita) for the late Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), based on sectoral output and value added, in current as well as in constant prices. The present estimation of per capita GDP in the late Qing period comes out higher than previous estimations, but it still suggests low average levels of Chinese living standards. The economy during the late Qing Empire was characterised by a large and growing agricultural sector and displayed only minor structural changes. Only in the beginning of the twentieth century did the economy start to show signs of growth.
    Keywords: China, GDP, 19th century, living standards
    JEL: E01 N15 O11
    Date: 2016–05
  5. By: Raphael Hekimian; David Le Bris
    Abstract: We compare the reaction of the Paris bourse to the US crashes during both the 2008 and the 1929 crises. We constitute a new dataset of daily French stock prices from February 1929 to March 1930 that we combine to the already existing daily series of the Dow Jones. We also use newspapers and minutes from the Banque de France and from the Paris Stock Exchange’s brokers syndicate in order to confront quantitative data with historical narratives. We finally run contagion tests in both periods, using adjusted correlation coefficients to test for pure contagion. In 1929, the Paris stock market does not exhibit any reaction to the New-York crash. The recent crisis is totally different with a clear contagion of the US crash. This study highlights a significant difference between the two crises and provides strong evidence that the transmission of the Great Depression used other channels than stock markets.
    Keywords: Financial history, Financial crisis, Stock market, Contagion.
    JEL: G15 G01 N12 N13
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Gräbner, Claudius
    Abstract: We identify epistemological shifts in economics throughout the 20th century and discuss their methodological implications. After the realist research program of the Cowles commission and Lucas' rational expectations approach, several economists became dissatisfied with economic theory and initiated a shift towards instrumentalism. Recently, this movement has come under critique and a return to a realist epistemology focusing on identifying economic mechanisms is suggested. Such epistemological changes have important practical implications: they affect the discrimination among competing explanations and determine which research methods are accepted. We illustrate this by studying epistemological and methodological changes in development economics throughout the last century.
    Keywords: mechanism-based explanations, realism, instrumentalism, agent-based computational modeling, New Keynesian economics
    JEL: B20 B41 O1
    Date: 2016–06–11
  7. By: Igor Fedyukin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article explores the policies pursued by the key "German" ministers of Empress Anna Ioannovna (r. 1730-1740). This period has been traditionally presented as a "reign of Germans" who allegedly acted in ways that were oppressive, ill-conceived, and detrimental for Russia's true interests. Recent scholarship successfully debunked the notions that the "Germans" acted as a cohesive political faction and demonstrated that their policies were largely sensible and successful. Did the "foreignness" of these German-born ministers matter, however? As this article argues, many of these policies could actually be linked to the influences of the Halle Pietism and represented an important "disciplinary moment" in early modern Russian history
    Keywords: Empress Anna, "German Party", von Buhren, von Munnich, Pietism, governamentality
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Makovi, Michael
    Abstract: Recent debate has centered around the contemporary relevance and even the original validity of F. A. Hayek's Road to Serfdom. Was it directed against command socialism only or against welfare-state interventionism as well? Should the book even be read anymore? This essay takes a step back from the dichotomy between socialism and interventionism and explores two specific ideas of Hayek's which deserve renewed attention: first, his claim that economic liberty is the fundamental liberty and that political liberty is merely secondary in value. Second, Hayek's conception of the rule-of-law, which has implications for contemporary command-and-control regulation. Furthermore, that Hayek's philosophical conception of the rule-of-law in the Road to Serfdom is related to his economic theory of prices in “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” While Hayek's specific target in the Road to Serfdom was command socialism, his book embodied arguments which are more widely applicable and relevant today.
    Keywords: rule of law; liberty; freedom; rights; price system
    JEL: A12 B24 B25 B31 B53 D70 D82 K00 P10 P20 P50
    Date: 2016–06–17
  9. By: Claude Diebolt; Ralph Hippe
    Abstract: In a recent contribution, Redding and Schott (2003) add human capital to a two sector NEG model, highlighting that remoteness represents a penalty that gives disincentives to invest in human capital. But is this hypothesis consistent with long-term evidence? We test the persistence of this effect at the regional level in an historical setting. The results show that market access has a significant positive influence on human capital in OLS, Tobit and IV regression models. Thus, the paper confirms the ‘penalty of remoteness’ hypothesis for Europe in the long run.
    Keywords: Human Capital, New Economic Geography, Regional Development, Market Access.
    JEL: I21 N33 N93 R11
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Messori, Luciano (Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit); Orsini, Raimondello (Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit)
    Abstract: La fama di John Bates Clark (1847-1938) è legata soprattutto al suo contributo alla teoria marginalista della distribuzione del reddito e alla diffusione del marginalismo negli Stati Uniti. La sua opera di gran lunga più conosciuta è The Distribution of Wealth: A Theory of Wages, Interest and Profits, pubblicato nel 1899, che mostra come in un’economia statica la distribuzione della ricchezza tra i fattori di produzione sia proporzionale alla produttività marginale di ciascuno di essi. Nonostante la sua produzione scientifica abbia spaziato su un'ampia gamma di questioni, sia di teoria economica e sociale, sia di politica economica, con approcci metodologici anche molto diversi, già i suoi allievi diretti ed i suoi colleghi ebbero la tendenza a enfatizzare il suo ruolo di teorico, didatta e divulgatore dell'economia marginalista, e quindi principalmente i suoi contributi funzionali alla migliore definizione e sistematizzazione dell'analisi microeconomica neoclassica. Già nel 1927, in un volume pubblicato in occasione degli ottanta anni di Clark, il suo collega alla Columbia University, Jacob H. Hollander, scrive: The real work of John B. Clark as an economist lies within the thirteen years from 1886 to 1899.
    Keywords: John Bates Clark; economia marginalista;
    JEL: A10
    Date: 2016–05–05
    Date: 2016
  12. By: Claude Diebolt (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France); Ralph Hippe (London School of Economics and Political Science, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment)
    Date: 2016
  13. By: Esteban Ezequiel Maito
    Abstract: El presente trabajo analiza la acumulación de capital en Argentina durante el último siglo. A lo largo del mismo se observa un sostenido descenso de la tasa de ganancia, explicado principalmente por el crecimiento de la composición del capital y la tendencia a la sobreacumulación relativa de capital. Se presenta, tanto para la tasa de ganancia como para la composición de valor del capital, un análisis de la evolución de sus principales componentes. En el marco de una tendencia a la sobreacumulación de capital fijo respecto al valor agregado, la participación de las ganancias en el producto muestra una tendencia descendente debido al incremento tendencial del consumo de capital fijo y los impuestos netos y, hasta la última dictadura, de la participación asalariada.
    Keywords: Argentina; Acumulación de capital; Distribución funcional; Tasa de ganancia; Composición del capital
    JEL: E01 E22 P10
    Date: 2015–12–30
  14. By: Lööf, Hans (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Mairesse, Jacques (CREST-ENSAE, Paris and UNU-MERIT Maastricht); Mohnen, Pierre (UNU-MERIT Maastricht)
    Abstract: In year 1998, the seminal study Research Innovation and Productivity: An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level, commonly labeled CDM (the acronym of the three authors’ names, Crépon, Duguet and Mairesse), was published in this journal. The empirical framework, presented there, following on ideas in the research of Zvi Griliches at the NBER and is one of the most influential contributions in recent literature on economics of innovation. The original CDM paper and papers inspired by its framework have received hundreds of citations in the empirical innovation literature. Whether directly linked or not to the CDM framework, the flow of studies improving on and enlarging the scope and methods of the empirical literature on R&D, innovation and productivity is continuing. Some of them, for example, focus on financing innovation, or innovation and employment, or innovation and trade, or competition, or intellectual property; some adopt a managerial perspective, or an innovation system approach in a Schumpeterian tradition, etc. This introduction to the special issue of EINT surveys a collection of 12 papers on the CDM model by 25 authors from eight countries. The papers take stock of the evolution of research based on the original CDM model launched 20 years ago, linking it to the previous literature, and proposing developments and generalizations of it in various dimensions.
    Keywords: CDM; R&D; innovation; productivity; micro-econometrics
    JEL: C30 D24 O30 O31 O33
    Date: 2016–06–15
  15. By: Ivo Bicanic; Milan Deskar-Škrbić; Jurica Zrnc
    Date: 2016–06
  16. By: Alston, Julian; Andersen, Matt; Pardey, Phil
    Keywords: Farm Management, Production Economics,
    Date: 2016–02

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