nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒05‒21
thirty-two papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. The Dawn of the Plastic Jungle: The Introduction of the Credit Card in Europe and North America, 1950-1975 By Bernardo Batiz-Lazo; Gustavo A. Del Angel
  2. Clans, Guilds, and Markets: Apprenticeship Institutions and Growth in the Pre-Industrial Economy By David de la Croix; Matthias Doepke; Joel Mokyr
  3. Banking Crises By Grossman, Richard
  4. Financialization and the crises of capitalism By Dünhaupt, Petra
  5. Why East Germany did not become a new Mezzogiorno By Boltho, Andrea; Carlin, Wendy; Scaramozzino, Pasquale
  6. Retracing The Kurdish and The Armenian Issues In The Journal Of Albayrak In Period of National Struggle in Tur By Cemile Burcu Kartal; Ezgi Oren
  7. The geography of innovation in Italy, 1861-1913: evidence from patent data By Alessandro Nuvolari; Michelangelo Vasta
  8. Let's Put Demography Back into Economics: Population Pyramids in Excel By Humberto Barreto
  9. Religion, Division of Labor and Conflict: Anti-Semitism in German Regions over 600 Years By Becker, Sascha O.; Pascali, Luigi
  10. La influencia de la iglesia y la prensa en el movimiento obrero de Popayán: 1900- 1950 By Juan David García
  11. Income distribution in rural Buenos Aires, 1839-1867 By Luis Bértola; Jorge Gelman; Daniel Santilli
  12. Estimación de desigualdad de ingreso y otras variables relacionadas para Chile entre 1860 y 1970. Metodología y resultados obtenidos By Javier Rodríguez Weber
  13. Income distribution in prewar Japan By Tetsuji Okazaki
  14. Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years By Jean-Philippe Bouchaud; Damien Challet
  16. Assessing the Effects of Japanese Industrial Policy Change during the 1960s By Kozo Kiyota; Tetsuji Okazaki
  17. The agricultural roots of industrial development: ‘forward linkages’ in reform era China By Samuel Marden
  18. Towards Fiscalization of the European Union? The US and EU Fiscal Unions in a Comparative Historical Perspective By Wozniakowski, Tomasz P.
  19. Theory and Measurement: Emergence, Consolidation and Erosion of a Consensus By Jeff E. Biddle; Daniel S. Hamermesh
  20. Le retour de l'économie Keynesienne By Xavier Ragot
  21. Are family sizes of parents and children still related? Revisiting the cross-generationalrelationship over the last century By Eva Beaujouan; Anne Solaz
  22. 帝政ロシア・ソ連・現代ロシアの金融統計の発展 By 中村, 靖
  23. Lionel Robbins’ first-step individualism and the prehistory of microfoundations By Thiago Dumont Oliveira; Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak
  24. Insolvency in French Soccer By Scelles, Nicolas; Szymanski, Stefan; Dermit-Richard, Nadine
  25. The History and Economics of Safe Assets By Gary B. Gorton
  26. The long-term impact of war on health By Michael Palmer; Cuong Nguyen; Sophie Mitra; Daniel Mont; Nora Groce
  27. Extractive States: The Case of the Italian Unification. By Guerriero, Carmine; de Oliveira, Guilherme
  28. F. A. Hayek'in Bilgisizlik Teorisi Çerçevesinde Piyasa, Denge ve Planlama By Göcen, Serdar
  29. QWERTY, ЙЦУКЕН и српска ћирилица: треба ли нам нови стандард? By Bukvić, Rajko
  30. A systemic crisis in the context of globalization: the Great Recession in the perspective of economic history, 1970-2008 By Carles Manera
  31. Designing Policies to Make Cars Greener: A Review of the Literature By Soren T. Anderson; James M. Sallee
  32. Betriebs-Historik-Panel 1975-2014 (Establishment-History-Panel 1975-2014) By Schmucker, Alexandra; Seth, Stefan; Ludsteck, Johannes; Eberle, Johanna; Ganzer, Andreas

  1. By: Bernardo Batiz-Lazo; Gustavo A. Del Angel
    Abstract: In this paper we discuss the genesis and early international expansion of the bank issued credit card. Empirical evidence documents the limits of a single firm building a proprietary network, because success came to a constellation of participants that combined three characteristics namely a critical mass of both retail customers and retail merchants; the capacity to adopt and implement new technological solutions; and the ability to forge resilient collaboration across national borders. This evidence provides further support to the importance of collaboration in retail financial services as means to appropriate network externalities. We also argue that initial conditions for this industry had greater implications for long-term success than has been acknowledged by other conceptual and empirical studies (in particular the literature around two-sided markets, which has focused attention on the determinants of the interchange fee).
    Keywords: Credit card, payments, cashless, two sided markets, payment tolls, Bank of America, Barclays, Banamex, Bancomer, Banco de Bilbao, British banks, Mexican banks, Spanish banks
    JEL: E51 L5 N1 N2 N8
    Date: 2016–03
  2. By: David de la Croix (Universite Catholique de Louvain); Matthias Doepke (Northwestern University); Joel Mokyr (Northwestern University)
    Abstract: In the centuries leading up to the Industrial Revolution, Western Europe gradually pulled ahead of other world regions in terms of technological creativity, population growth, and income per capita. We argue that superior institutions for the creation and dissemination of productive knowledge help explain the European advantage. We build a model of technological progress in a pre-industrial economy that emphasizes the person-to-person transmission of tacit knowledge. The young learn as apprentices from the old. Institutions such as the family, the clan, the guild, and the market organize who learns from whom. We argue that medieval European institutions such as guilds, and specific features such as journeymanship, can explain the rise of Europe relative to regions that relied on the transmission of knowledge within extended families or clans.
    Keywords: apprenticeship, guilds, clans, dissemination of knowledge, population growth
    JEL: E02 J24 N10 N30 O33 O43
    Date: 2016–04
  3. By: Grossman, Richard
    Abstract: Financial crises have been a common feature of the economic landscape for more than two centuries. The chapter defines banking crises, considers the type of costs that they impose, and outlines the most common causes of banking crises during the past 200 years. The remainder of the chapter considers five distinct historical periods: the nineteenth century, when the "boom-bust" pattern that would typify later crises became established; the inter-war period, which was punctuated by two major sets of crises (post-World War I crisis and the Great Depression); the post-World War II financial lock-down, which was characterized by a complete absence of banking crises; deregulation and the return of crises in the 1970s; and the subprime crisis that emerged in 2008 and the subsequent euro-zone crisis.
    Keywords: Banking; banking crises; banking panics; economic history
    JEL: G01 G21 N2
    Date: 2016–05
  4. By: Dünhaupt, Petra
    Abstract: Since the 1980s, the financial sector and its role have increased significantly. This development is often referred to as financialization. Authors working in the heterodox tradition have raised the question whether the changing role of finance manifests a new era in the history of capitalism. The present article first provides some general discussion on the term financialization and presents some stylized facts which highlight the rise of finance. Then, it proceeds by briefly reviewing the main arguments in the Marxian framework that proposedly lead to crisis. Next, two schools of thought in the Marxian tradition are reviewed which consider financialization as the latest stage of capitalism. They highlight the contradictions imposed by financialization that disrupt the growth process and also stress the fragilities imposed by the new growth regime. The two approaches introduced here are the Social Structure of Accumulation Theory and Monthly Review School. The subsequent part proceeds with the Post-Keynesian theory, first introducing potential destabilizing factors before discussing financialization and the finance-led growth regime. The last section provides a comparative summary. While the basic narrative in all approaches considered here is quite similar, major differences stem from the relationship between neoliberalism and financialization and, moreover, from the question of whether financialization can be considered cause or effect.
    Keywords: Financialization,Crisis,Periods of Capitalism,Heterodox Economics
    JEL: E02 E11 E12 P16 P51
    Date: 2016
  5. By: Boltho, Andrea; Carlin, Wendy; Scaramozzino, Pasquale
    Abstract: In an earlier paper (Journal of Comparative Economics, 1997) the authors argued, against the conventional wisdom of the time, that East Germany was unlikely to follow a development path similar to that of the Italian Mezzogiorno. This paper revisits the issue some 25 years after German reunification. Statistical tests show that the absence of income per capita convergence between South and North that has characterized Italy since the war, continued over the last two or more decades. Germany, on the other hand, has, over the same period, seen significant income convergence between East and West. The main explanations that are provided for such contrasting outcomes stress differences between the two countries (and within the two countries) in investment performance, in labour market flexibility, and, in particular, in developments in the tradeable sector whose performance in East Germany has been much superior to that of the Mezzogiorno. These differences, in turn, are linked to very different standards of institutional quality and governance which are almost certainly rooted in the two "poor" regions' longer-run history.
    Keywords: convergence; institutional quality; labour market flexibility; tradeables
    JEL: O57 R12 R58
    Date: 2016–05
  6. By: Cemile Burcu Kartal (Ataturk University); Ezgi Oren (Ataturk University)
    Abstract: World War I became a milestone in the decay of empires and in the transition to the form of nation-state all over the world. Also, the national identities had been emerged and shaped in this period, before and after of the War. Contemporaneously, the years in between 1912 and 1922, constructing Turkish identitiy and nationalim provided the important components to the founding of the Republic in Turkey. Especially, 1919-1922 period was important in terms of this arising national movement, because of the era which was beginnig the transition from the empire to the nation-state with the accession of the whole society in a national struggle. Therewith, Treaty of Sevres and Mondros Armistice Agreement were considerable factors in acceleration of the struggle in Anatolia. Besides, local press had a curicial role in the occupied territories throughout the stage. And the Journal Of Albayrak which came out in Erzurum was one of the foremost media vehicle in the period of national struggle in the east of country. So, Albayrak had been published during two terms: 1913-1915 and 1919-1921. Why the journal resumed; firstly, allies’ occupation began along the Anatolia territories after the signing of Mondros Armistice Agreement and there was a prevalent apprehension about giving up the east provinces to the Armenians. This fears derived from the 24th article of the Agreement which intitled occupation to allies anywhere of the six east province (Vilayet-i Sitte) those were named as Erzurum, Bitlis, Van, Diyarbakır, Sivas and Elazığ (Ma’muretil’aziz) in any disordering situation. Herewith, Albayrak stated that it would be make contribution to the point of informing the community and raising consciousness about the reasons of Armenian problem and its forthcoming dangers. This journal, also, gave information and news concerning Kurdish issue that arised in this period. In this respect, this paper analyses that how a journal which was one of the most important example of the local press in the region was utilized as an important propaganda material and what kind of rethoric it generated about both Kurdish and Armenian issues. Herewith, an additional purpose is to examine a media source which was not handled before by the means of Kurdish and Armenian questions and in this way to try to make any contribution to the related discussions today.
    Keywords: Ethnic Conflict, Media, National Identity, Nationalism, War
  7. By: Alessandro Nuvolari; Michelangelo Vasta
    Abstract: In this paper we provide a systematic appraisal of the spatial patterns of inventive activity in Italy in the period 1861-1913. Our main source of evidence is a data-set containing all patents granted in Italy in five benchmark years (1864-65, 1881, 1891, 1902, 1911). Our geographical unit of analysis is the province, an administrative district of the time. First, using some simple descriptive statistics, we introduce a characterization of the spatial distribution of patents and of its evolution over time. Second, we perform an econometric exercise in which we assess the connection between different forms of human capital and patent intensity. We are able to establish a robust correlation between literacy and “basic” patent intensity and robust correlation between secondary technical education and scientific and engineering studies and “high quality” patent intensity. Third, we study the connection between patents and industrialization. Our exercise shows that patents exerted a significant role in accounting for the level of industrial production. Interestingly enough, in this context, the role of patents was possibly more relevant than that of the availability of water-power and of the level of real wages (two factors that were pointed out by the previous literature, mostly on the basis of rather impressionistic accounts of the evidence). Our study warrants two main conclusions. First, domestic inventive activities were an important element of the industrialization process, even in a late-comer country such as Italy. Second, at the time of the unification, Northern provinces were characterized by more effective innovation systems. This factor contributes to explain the growing divide in economic performance between the North and the South of the country during the Liberal age
    Date: 2015–12
  8. By: Humberto Barreto (Department of Economics and Management, DePauw University)
    Abstract: In 1960, George Stigler wrote that, “In 1830, no general work in economics would omit a discussion of population, and in 1930, hardly any general work said anything about population.” Today, the economics curriculum remains largely devoid of demography and this needs to change immediately. After witnessing a population explosion in the last half of the 20th century, fertility rates are crashing throughout the world. We are in the midst of another demographic sea change, slamming on the brakes right after accelerating faster than ever before. This has important consequences for economies everywhere. Instead of glibly tossing a dependency ratio onto a slide, this paper offers an easy way to improve demographic literacy in undergraduate economics students using population pyramids. Hypothetical data are used to explain the pyramid and teach its dynamic properties, then real-world data are used to provide historical context, current demographic snapshots, and a glimpse of the future. Throughout, Microsoft Excel is used and its ability to download data directly from the US Census Bureau’s International Data Base with a single click of a button provides a flexible, powerful tool to explore various countries. Download PopulationPyramid.xlsm from and follow along with the instructions provided in this paper.
    Keywords: teaching, pedagogy, education, cohort, ageing, demographics
    JEL: A1 A2 J1
    Date: 2016–05
  9. By: Becker, Sascha O. (University of Warwick); Pascali, Luigi (Pompeu Fabra University)
    Abstract: Anti-Semitism continues to be a widespread societal problem rooted deeply in history. Using novel city-level data from Germany for more than 2,000 cities and county-level data, we study the role of economic incentives in shaping the co-existence of Jews, Catholics and Protestants. The Catholic ban on usury gave Jews living in Catholic regions a specific advantage in the moneylending sector. Following the Protestant Reformation (1517), the Jews lost this advantage in regions that became Protestant but not in those regions that remained Catholic. We show that 1) the Protestant Reformation induced a change in the geography of anti-Semitism with persecutions of Jews and anti-Jewish publications becoming more common in Protestant areas relative to Catholic areas; 2) this change was more pronounced in cities where Jews had already established themselves as moneylenders; 3) the Reformation reduced the specialization of Jews in the financial sector in Protestant regions but not in Catholic regions. We interpret these findings as evidence that, following the Protestant Reformation, the Jews living in Protestant regions lost their comparative advantage in lending. This change exposed them to competition with the Christian majority leading, eventually, to an increase in anti-Semitism.
    Keywords: Anti-Semitism, Religion, Conflict, Division of Labor JEL Classification: Z12, O18, N33, N93, D73
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Juan David García
    Abstract: En 1900 Popayán había perdido el empuje que la había caracterizado como centro económico del occidente del país el siglo anterior, esta desaceleración económica vino acompañada de otras particularidades como su afinidad con el partido conservador y la iglesia, lo cual ayudó a configurar un movimiento obrero especial, de poco alcance y visibilidad nacional, y muy ligado a corrientes políticas. El objetivo del presente texto es determinar la conexión de la iglesia y la prensa en la configuración del movimiento obrero en Popayán. El periodo de análisis es la primera mitad del siglo XX, no sólo por acotar el tema, sino también porque es un periodo pionero en cuestión sindical.
    Keywords: Movimiento Obrero, Popayán, Iglesia, Prensa, Corriente Política.
    JEL: J51 J52 J58
    Date: 2016–05–03
  11. By: Luis Bértola (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República); Jorge Gelman (Instituto Ravignani, Universidad de Buenos Aires/CONICET); Daniel Santilli (Instituto Ravignani, Universidad de Buenos Aires/CONICET)
    Abstract: This paper presents an estimate of income distribution in the rural sector of the Buenos Aires province during the central decades of the 19th century, a period featured by important economic growth framed by the incorporation to the Atlantic economy. After presenting the results of previous attempts to measure wealth inequality and relative factor prices, the results of an estimate of total and functional income distribution based on the construction of social tables are presented. The results improve previous achievements and open the way for methodological discussions on how to approach inequality in pre-statistical societies. The main result is challenging: while, on the one hand, income distribution as measured by relative price movements deteriorate and wealth is increasingly concentrated, total inequality diminishes and the wage share increases, due to the important expansion of agrarian employment.
    Date: 2015–12
  12. By: Javier Rodríguez Weber (Programa de Historia Económica y Social, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)
    Abstract: El presente Documento de Trabajo contiene una relación precisa de los procedimientos seguidos para la estimación de series relativas al ingreso y su distribución entre personas y sectores en Chile entre 1860 y 1970, así como de los resultados obtenidos. El mismo se basa en el capítulo 3 y los apéndices estadísticos y metodológicos de la tesis doctoral del autor (Rodríguez Weber 2014). En el texto se analizan en primer lugar las alternativas metodológicas de que disponen los historiadores para estimar la distribución del ingreso, así como alguno de los problemas y limitaciones que estas plantean. En la tercera sección se describen en detalle los procedimientos seguidos y las fuentes utilizadas para construir series de desigualdad entre 1860 y 1970. Finalmente, estos resultados se someten a crítica, demostrando que las tendencias estimadas son robustas a la utilización de distintas fuentes y la opción por decisiones metodológicas y supuestos alternativos. El documento incluye asimismo un apéndice estadístico con los resultados obtenidos.
    Keywords: distribución del ingreso, desigualdad, salarios, Chile, tablas sociales, metodología
    JEL: C18 C82 N36 O15 Y10
    Date: 2016–04
  13. By: Tetsuji Okazaki
    Abstract: This chapter surveyed the literature on income distribution, focusing on the research on the prewar period. From the literature, it has been established that the prewar Japanese society exhibited high income inequality and that the inequality increased over time. This evidence is consistent with the findings on the functional distribution of income, which indicated that the capital share was increasing in Japan in this period. In addition, this chapter expanded on the existing research by using a new individual-level data set to explore the relationship between assets and income. It was found that a substantial part of the income of the core top income earners was from their assets.
    Date: 2016–04
  14. By: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud; Damien Challet
    Abstract: We first review empirical evidence that asset prices have had episodes of large fluctuations and been inefficient for at least 200 years. We briefly review recent theoretical results as well as the neurological basis of trend following and finally argue that these asset price properties can be attributed to two fundamental mechanisms that have not changed for many centuries: an innate preference for trend following and the collective tendency to exploit as much as possible detectable price arbitrage, which leads to destabilizing feedback loops.
    Date: 2016–05
  15. By: METE KAZAZ (Selcuk University); Yasemin ÖZKENT (Selcuk University)
    Abstract: Football, which is an important part of daily life in almost every society in our day, has progressed in similar periods with the cinema. These two fields, which were among the important actors of the 20th century, existed in daily life through their various intersecting aspects, and these similarities provided a ground for the cinema to be nourished by football. Football has functioned far beyond just being a game within social life and turned into a highly important area at both cultural and economic levels through the bond it has formed with the symbolic values of daily life. The influence of football on masses is too big to be ignored. Offering a hero to individuals isolated by modern life with whom they can identify themselves, great joys experienced when the ball meets the net, and a sense of belonging to the team they support and to people they do not know, football is an activity that has achieved goals far beyond being a game. Together with the Second World War, football gradually became more professional, more commercialized, and the football spectator alienated from football, which was an important part of his life. With the development of the phenomenon of being a supporter, football followers regained their existence in football and managed to exist within a collectivity.In the present study, the relationship between football and social life, and the phenomenon of being a supporter are examined through the film Looking for Eric, which is among the important films of Ken Loach’s cinema. The film narrates how the life of a postman who has strong feelings of support for his team and who looks for hope for his bad life changes for the better when his most favorite footballer comes into his life and how the experiences in a football field can be put into practice in real life. Playfields in which a reproduction in the public sense springs to life, especially the stadiums, once again appear in front of us with this film as the proof of that “football is never only football†. What makes the film different from other football-themed films is the use of a real football star, and that the film constructs a narrative through the relationship between life and football presenting true slices of the footballer’s life and achievements in the football field.
    Keywords: Cinema, Football, Social Life
  16. By: Kozo Kiyota (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University); Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper provides a systematic analysis of the effects of the industrial policy change in the 1960s in Japan. We utilize a panel of 227 manufacturing industries between 1960 and 1969. We find that on the one hand, the removal of de facto import quotas had significantly negative effects on real output, real output per establishment, and employment. On the other hand, for those industries where import quotas were removed, tariff protection was effective in maintaining real output and employment. However, this does not necessarily mean the success of industrial policy change because neither tariff protection nor the removal of quotas contributed to productivity growth. In that sense, the industrial policy change had limited effects.
    Keywords: Import quota, Industrial Policy, Productivity, Postwar Japan
    JEL: F1 N15
    Date: 2016–04–01
  17. By: Samuel Marden (Department of Economics, University of Sussex)
    Abstract: A classic literature argues that improvements in agricultural productivity result in higher non-agricultural output, particularly at low levels of development. The proposed mechanisms for these ‘forward linkages’ centre on increases in the supply of factors—usually labour or capital—or demand externalities in product markets. Regardless of the mechanism, empirical evidence for substantial linkages from agriculture is limited. In this paper, I show that improvements in agricultural productivity were an important factor in the growth of the non-agricultural sector in early reform-era China. I obtain plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural productivity growth by exploiting the fact that reforms between 1978 and 1984 were more beneficial to farmers endowed with land suited to cash crops. Then, using a newly digitised panel of economic data for 561 counties, I trace the growth of agricultural and non-agricultural output over forty years. Over the 15 or 25 year periods following the reforms, I estimate elasticities of county level non-agricultural output with respect to agricultural output of 1.2 or 0.8. Several pieces of additional evidence indicate that the linkages identified were primarily due to higher agricultural surpluses increasing the supply of capital to local non-state firms.
    JEL: O11 O13 O43 P32
    Date: 2016–03
  18. By: Wozniakowski, Tomasz P.
    Keywords: Arts and Humanities, Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2016–03–28
  19. By: Jeff E. Biddle; Daniel S. Hamermesh
    Abstract: We identify three separate stages in the post-World War II history of applied microeconomic research: A generally non-mathematical period; a period of consensus (from the 1960s through the early 1990s) characterized by the use of mathematical models, optimization and equilibrium to generate and test hypotheses about economic behavior; and (from the late 1990s) a partial abandonment of economic theory in applied work in the “experimentalist paradigm.” We document the changes implied by the changing paradigms in the profession by coding the content of all applied micro articles published in the “Top 5 journals” in 1951-55, 1974-75 and 2007-08. We also show that, despite the partial abandonment of theory by applied microeconomists, the labor market for economists still pays a wage premium to theorists.
    JEL: B21 B23
    Date: 2016–05
  20. By: Xavier Ragot (OFCE)
    Abstract: La crise économique a généré une profusion de nouvelles recherches en macroéconomie, qui sont peu connues du grand public. La rationalité limitée, l'utilisation des données historiques et des études de cas sont maintenant des outils reconnus. Derrière cette diversification de la profession, la question des rigidités nominales sur le marché des biens et du travail retrouve une place centrale pour comprendre la dynamique européenne et américaine. Les thèmes de la stagnation séculaire, des taux d'intérêt faibles, de la volatilité excessive sur le marché financier, des effets des politiques fiscales et monétaires reposent sur ces rigidités. Si ces travaux retrouvent certaines des intuitions des modèles à prix-fixes du début des années 1980 (Bénassy-Younes-Malinvaud), les modèles récents sont plus complexes pour être confrontés rigoureusement aux donnés. Le retour de l'économie keynésienne indiqué par le titre de cet article est le retour de la question des rigidités nominales sur plusieurs marchés en équilibre général.
    Keywords: Rigidités nominales; Equilibre macroéconomique; Methode de la macroéconomie
    JEL: B22 B40 E12
    Date: 2016–05
  21. By: Eva Beaujouan (Vienna Institute of Demography/); Anne Solaz (Ined)
    Abstract: Les niveaux de fécondité des parents et des enfants sont liés mais la force de cette relation intergénérationnelle a rarement été étudiée sur le long terme. Cet article vise à analyser si, et de quelle manière, la fécondité des femmes et des hommes est liée à la fécondité de leur parents au cours du siècle. Utilisant une enquête de grande ampleur liée au recensement (Famille et Logements 2011), nos méthodes d’estimation (Poisson et modèle de comptage) tiennent compte de la nature discrète des variables de fécondité, leurs relations non linéaires et le rôle des autres facteurs. Les résultats montrent une corrélation faible mais significative et positive de l’ordre de 0,12 à 0,15 toujours plus forte pour les femmes que les hommes, proche des niveaux observés ailleurs. Le nombre de frères et soeurs a un pouvoir explicatif de plus en plus faible au fil des générations, soutenant l’idée que la famille a perdu de son influence implicite et explicite sur les choix de fécondité. Avec la diffusion de la famille de deux enfants, les tailles de familles extrêmes (nombreuses et petites) se démarquent et sont plus reproduites. Toutefois, alors que le niveau de fécondité plus élevé des enfants de familles nombreuses est largement expliqué par des facteurs socio-économiques, un mimétisme de fécondité entre parents et enfants prévaut dans les familles de petite taille, résultat qui peut en partie expliquer pourquoi, dans certains pays européens, les niveaux de fécondité restent faibles.
    Date: 2016
  22. By: 中村, 靖
    Abstract: 金融統計の地理的対象はロシア帝国,ソ連,ロシア共和国の全体である.金融統計については,地域別統計情報を得ることが資料的,方法的に困難であるため,ロシアの地理的境界の変更を考慮した金融統計系列は作成できない.加えて,対象期間の大部分を占めるソ連期の金融制度が特殊であるため,金融統計指標を多国と比較することも,ロシア領域内で歴史的に比較することも困難である.ソ連期の社会主義のイデオロギーは貨幣と資本の廃絶を掲げていたのであり,後に述べるように短期間ではあるが銀行制度そのものが廃止されていた時期さえソ連期には存在していた.ソ連と市場経済の金融統計指標を比較する際には,慎重でなければならない.本稿では,まず統計指標の理解の前提となる各時期における金融制度の特徴を展望したのち,それぞれの時期の金融統計指標の特徴につい説明する., It is difficult to adjust financial statistical data to territorial changes and to compare them between Russia Empire, the Soviet Union, and Russia, mainly because the financial systems in those three periods were very different from each other and that in a market economy. There was even a period when the banking system was abolished entirely in the early 1920s, although the period lasted less than one year. The financial system in the Russian Empire developed slow in relative to that in other West-European countries and was characterized by strong influence of the government. This characteristic seemed to be carried over in to the Soviet Union until the 1960s. State budget was at the center of the Soviet financial system, while bank financing had only a minor and subsidiary role. Even in the minor bank financing, the main financial source of bank loans was government deposits. This pattern of Soviet finance changed in the mid-1960s: the weight of bank financing increased rapidly. Household deposits almost exclusively financed the increasing bank loan supply, while the government sector turned to be a net absorber of financial resources. This financial system seemed unsustainable and, indeed, it collapsed eventually. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian financial system returned to a financial system more or less ordinary to a market economy; it is, however, still in the process to establish a sound financial system. The financial data are fragmental and often incomparable, reflecting all these developments in the Russian financial system.
    Date: 2016–04
  23. By: Thiago Dumont Oliveira (N/A); Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: Robbins belongs to the prehistory of microfoundations, for his definition of economics helped to buttress the centrality that individual choice acquired after the Second World War. This, however, was an unintended effect of his seminal Essay. Our claim is that, underlying his definition of economics, a novel approach to methodological individualism is advanced, in which the isolated individual plays the role of a temporary device. The economic man is but a first step in order to analyze more complex social phenomena. More specifically, three types of methodological individualism are outlined and it is argued that Robbins’ approach cannot be classified as any of them; we thus propose a different category, that of ‘first-step individualism’. Robbins’ rationale for focusing on the isolated individual is not that social phenomena can be reduced to individual behaviour, but rather that this is the best starting point for economics, if it is to progress and be able to deal with more complex phenomena in the future.
    Keywords: Lionel Robbins, Methodological Individualism, First Step Individualism
    JEL: B20 B31
    Date: 2016–05
  24. By: Scelles, Nicolas; Szymanski, Stefan; Dermit-Richard, Nadine
    Abstract: This paper examines insolvency at the highest levels of French soccer. Between 1970 and 2014 we observed 72 cases of insolvency arising from participation in the top two or three (since 1993) divisions. We find that demand (attendance) shocks can account for insolvency to a significant degree. We also find that insolvency can be explained by ownership structure, with the tradition Association form being more likely to lead to insolvency. We also examine the post-insolvency performance of soccer clubs and find that the adverse consequences of insolvency are long lasting.
    Keywords: insolvency, French soccer, attendance, demand shocks, ownership
    JEL: G33 G38 L83
    Date: 2016–05–10
  25. By: Gary B. Gorton
    Abstract: Safe assets play a critical role in an(y) economy. A “safe asset” is an asset that is (almost always) valued at face value without expensive and prolonged analysis. That is, by design there is no benefit to producing (private) information about its value. And this is common knowledge. Consequently, agents need not fear adverse selection when buying or selling safe assets. Safe assets can easily be used to exchange for goods or services or to exchange for another asset. These short-term safe assets are money or money-like. A long-term safe asset can store value over time or be used as collateral. Human history can be written in terms of the search for and production of safe assets. But, the most prevalent, privately-produced short-term safe assets—bank debt, are subject to runs and this has important implications for macroeconomics and for monetary policy.
    JEL: E3 E41 E42 E44 E5 G2
    Date: 2016–04
  26. By: Michael Palmer (Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne); Cuong Nguyen (Institute of Public Policy and Management, National Economics University); Sophie Mitra (Department of Economics, Fordham University); Daniel Mont (Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, University College London); Nora Groce (Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, University College London)
    Abstract: The toll of warfare is often assessed in the short run and in terms of mortality. Other aspects of health have received limited attention, especially after warfare ends. This paper estimates the impact of exposure to US Air Force bombing during 1965-1975 on the disability status of individuals in Vietnam in 2009. Using national census data and an instrumental variable approach, the paper finds a positive and statistically significant impact of war time bombing exposure on district level disability rates about forty years after the end of the war. A ten percent increase in bombing intensity approximately leads to a one percent increase in the prevalence of severe disability at the district level. Impacts are highest for severe disability and among persons born before 1976. Smaller yet significant positive impacts are observed among persons born after the war. Results suggest that the toll of warfare on health persists decades later.
    Keywords: war, post-conflict, disability, health, Vietnam
    JEL: C4 H7 I1 P2
    Date: 2016–04
  27. By: Guerriero, Carmine; de Oliveira, Guilherme
    Abstract: Despite the huge evidence documenting the adverse impact of extractive policies, we still lack a framework that identifies their determinants. Here, we lay out a two-region, two-social class model for thinking about this issue, and we exploit its implications to propose a novel account of the present-day economic divide between North and South of Italy. In contrast with the extant literature, we document that its opening is the result of the region-specific policies selected between 1861 and 1911 by the elite of the Kingdom of Sardinia, which annexed the rest of Italy in 1861. To elaborate, pre-unitary regional revenues from land property taxes per capita and railway diffusion are only driven by the contemporaneous region's farming productivity but not by the region's political relevance for the Kingdom of Sardinia's elite, whereas the opposite is true for the post-unitary ones. Moreover, tax-collection costs, the regional political relevance, and tax distortions shaped the growing North-South gap in post-unitary development, culture, and literacy. Crucially, our framework clarifies the incentives of dominating groups in other political and economic unions, e.g., post-Civil War USA and EU.
    Keywords: Extractive States; Political Union; Culture; Taxation.
    JEL: H2 H7 N4 Z1
    Date: 2014–03–08
  28. By: Göcen, Serdar
    Abstract: In this article, the implications of the theory of ignorance developed by Hayek to economic theory and policy will be examined. The theory of ignorance appeared especially in the second period of Hayek’s career and has been applied to the field of economics, politics, and law. Accordingly, people do not have knowledge about the institutions they’ve got today, knowledge which other people have, their actions and the results of them. This kind of knowledge cannot exist as cumulative and the amount of it cannot be enhanced by technological developments. Hence, developing theories, making plans and practices as if we have complete knowledge will not conclude as we desire. This study will discuss and sum up Hayek’s criticizes on market perception, the assumption of perfectly competitive market, and equilibrium analysis of mainstream economics, his contributions to the possibility of economic calculation in socialism and central planning, and recent development in information theory of mainstream economics.
    Keywords: bilgisizlik, Hayek, denge analizi, iktisadi planlama ignorance, Hayek, equilibrium analysis, economic planning
    JEL: B13 B25 B41 B53
    Date: 2015
  29. By: Bukvić, Rajko
    Abstract: The article considers the compatibility of the Serbian cyrilic with the script layouts that is on the keyboards of typewriters and computers used. With the short overview on the most popular keyboard layout (so called universal, i.e. QWERTY, that is primarily intended to Anglo-Saxon and German world, and ЙЦУКЕН, intended to the part of the world that use the Cyrillic script), it is pointed that the layout that now as Serbian named is, realy the minor modification of the QWERTY is. In the second part of the article, with the use of Markov chains, on the empirical example of the Migration, one of the most popular novel of the Serbian literature, it was shown the incompatibility of these layouts for the Serbian Cyrillic script, and with this the need for new standard was emphasized. У раду се анализира компатибилност српског ћириличног писма с распоредима слова који се користе на тастатурама писаћих машина, односно компјутера. Уз кратак осврт на најзаступљеније распореде (тзв. универзални, односно QWERTY, намењен превасходно англосаксонском и германском свету, и ЙЦУКЕН, намењен делу света који користи ћирилично писмо), указује се да је распоред који данас важи за „српску тастатуру” заправо мања модификација QWERTY-ја. У другом делу рада, уз коришћење апаратуре Марковљевих ланаца, на емпиријском примеру Сеоба, једног од најпознатијих романа српске књижевности, показана је некомпатибилност ових распореда за српско ћирилично писмо и тиме истакнута потреба тражења новог стандарда.
    Keywords: QWERTY, ЙЦУКЕН, Serbian cyrilic, keyboard, Markov chains, standard QWERTY, ЙЦУКЕН, српска ћирилица, тастатура, Марковљеви ланци, стандард
    JEL: B25 B52 C44 O33
    Date: 2016
  30. By: Carles Manera (Universitat de les Illes Balears)
    Abstract: The author argues in this work, the result of three years of research, that the Great Recession has the profile of a systemic crisis, in the sense that it is not only a single financial causes the trigger and at the same time, the crisis has questioned all the mechanisms of the system seemed to guarantee the impossibility of such severe as the crisis phenomenon since 2008. There are other factors to consider: crisis of accumulation, economic regulation and reduction of benefits, which point in this investigation and that, in turn, are the starting points for further work on the research agenda.
    Keywords: Great Recession, economic crises, globalization, American economy, Asian economy, European economy, economic history since 1945
    JEL: N1 N2 B2 F4
    Date: 2016
  31. By: Soren T. Anderson; James M. Sallee
    Abstract: We review what is known about the economic efficiency of fuel taxes relative to efficiency standards aimed at mitigating environmental externalities from automobiles. We present a simplified model of car choice that allows us to emphasize the relationships between fuel economy, other car attributes, and miles traveled. We focus on greenhouse gas emissions, although we note how other environmental externalities affect our conclusions. Our main conclusion—that standards are substantially less efficient than a fuel tax—is already familiar. Less familiar are points we make about the relative importance of the rebound effect, on the effects of attribute-based policies, and the implications of behavioral biases. We point to areas where we believe future research can have the greatest contribution, including work on uncertainty, heterogeneity, and empirical work in low and middle-income countries.
    JEL: H23 Q48 Q54
    Date: 2016–05
  32. By: Schmucker, Alexandra (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Seth, Stefan (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Ludsteck, Johannes (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Eberle, Johanna (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Ganzer, Andreas (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "Das Betriebs-Historik-Panel 1975-2014 (BHP 7514) ist eine 50%-Stichprobe aller Betriebe des gesamtdeutschen Raumes, die zum 30. Juni eines Jahres mindestens einen sozialversicherungspflichtigen oder seit 1999 auch geringfügig Beschäftigten aufweisen. Der Beobachtungszeitraum erstreckt sich von 1975 bis 2014 für Betriebe in Westdeutschland und von 1992 bis 2014 für Betriebe in Ostdeutschland. Der vorliegende Datenreport beschreibt die Variablen der schwach anonymisierten Version des BHP 7514, die Forscherinnen und Forscher im Rahmen eines Gastaufenthalts am FDZ sowie mittels Datenfernverarbeitung nutzen können. Es handelt sich bei den verfügbaren Daten weitgehend um die Originaldaten. Neben der Stichprobenziehung wurden lediglich die originalen Betriebsnummern als direkte Identifikatoren der Betriebe durch systemfreie Betriebsnummern ersetzt. Zum weiteren Schutz der Anonymität der Betriebe werden einige Merkmale als besonders sensibel eingestuft und nur auf gesonderten Antrag weitergegeben (siehe Abschnitt 1.2.1). Der Datenreport zum BHP 7514 gliedert sich wie folgt. Neben der Einleitung enthält Abschnitt eins eine Kurzbeschreibung der Daten sowie Informationen zum sogenannten Mengengerüst, zur Datennutzung und zum Datenzugang. Ebenso beinhaltet Abschnitt eins einen kurzen Überblick über die Veränderungen gegenüber der Vorgängerversion BHP 7510, um Nutzern dieser Version einen schnellen Umstieg zu ermöglichen. Eine Beschreibung der Datenquellen findet sich in Abschnitt zwei. Die Datenaufbereitung sowie die Datenqualität werden in den Abschnitten drei und vier diskutiert. Abschnitt fünf beinhaltet eine ausführliche Variablenbeschreibung. Der Anhang (Abschnitt 8) liefert detailliertere Beschreibungen zur Datenaufbereitung und Informationen zu weiterführenden Arbeitshilfen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku) Additional Information Auszählungen Frequencies and labels
    Keywords: IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel, Datensatzbeschreibung, Datenaufbereitung, Datenqualität, Stichprobe, Imputationsverfahren, Datenanonymisierung, Datenzugang
    Date: 2016–04–27

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