nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒04‒09
thirty-one papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Economic Crisis and the Demise of a Popular Contractual Form: Building and Loan Mortgage Contracts in the 1930s By Fleitas, Sebastian; Fishback, Price; Snowden, Kenneth
  2. The enduring logic: the history of business groups in Italy By Andrea Colli; Michelangelo Vasta
  3. Labor Market Institutions in the Gilded Age of American Economic History By Suresh Naidu; Noam Yuchtman
  4. Spanish real wages in the Northern-Western European mirror, 1500-1800. On the timings and magnitude of the Little Divergence in Europe. By Ernesto López Losa; Santiago Piquero Zarauz
  5. The Almeria Exodus. Understanding the turn of the century Spanish migration. By Mari Carmen Pérez Artés
  6. The legacy of Friedrich List: The expansive reproduction system and the Korean history of industrialization By Jun, Bogang; Gerybadze, Alexander; Kim, Tai-Yoo
  7. Cross-checking the Sound database with the French Balance du commerce data By Loïc Charles; Guillaume Daudin
  8. Common Factors in Major League Baseball Game Attendance By Young Hoon Lee
  9. The Macrogenoeconomics of Comparative Development By Quamrul H. Ashraf; Oded Galor
  10. Who Gained from the Introduction of Free Universal Secondary Education in England and Wales? By Hart, Robert A.; Moro, Mirko; Roberts, J. Elizabeth
  11. A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard By Warren E. Weber
  12. On the (Political) Origin of "Corporate Governance" Species By Massimiliano Vatiero
  13. The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in 20th century productivity growth. By A. Bergeaud; G. Cette; R. Lecat
  14. The economist quae political economist: Lionel Robbins and the economic adivisory council By Thiago Dumont Oliveira; Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak
  15. Series largas de algunos agregados demográficos regionales, 1950-2015. (RegDat-Dem versión 5.0) By Angel de la Fuente
  16. A look back on a unique experiment in interventionism in market economies: the European Common Agricultural Policy (1955 – 2015) By Pierre DELFAUD
  17. Towards Fiscalization of the European Union? The US and EU Fiscal Unions in a Comparative Historical Perspective By Wozniakowski, Tomasz P.
  18. Refugees From Dust and Shrinking Land: Tracking the Dust Bowl Migrants By Jason Long; Henry E. Siu
  19. Education in the colonies of the Jewish Colonization Association in Argentina By Edgardo Zablotsky
  20. The Geography of Inventiveness in the Primary Sector: Some Initial Results for New Zealand, 1880-1895 By Rebecca Williams; Les Oxley
  21. "Measuring the extent and implications of corporate political connections in prewar Japan" By Tetsuji Okazak; Michiru Sawada
  22. Please Call Me John: Name Choice and the Assimilation of Immigrants in the United States, 1900-1930 By Carneiro, Pedro; Lee, Sokbae; Reis, Hugo
  23. Clans, Guilds, and Markets: Apprenticeship Institutions and Growth in the Pre-Industrial Economy By David de la Croix; Matthias Doepke; Joel Mokyr
  24. Can a bank run be stopped? Government guarantees and the run on Continental Illinois By Mark A Carlson; Jonathan Rose
  25. Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration By Alan S. Blinder; Mark W. Watson
  26. Sex Differences in Early-Age Mortality: The Preconception Origins Hypothesis By Roland Pongou
  27. Boris Pasternak, Russian poetry, Russian History, Russian Revolution By Kevin M.F. Platt; Konstantin Polivanov
  28. Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics By Gary D. Hansen; Lee E. Ohanian
  29. Russian Imperial Space of Power in the First Post-Revolution Decade (1917 – Late 1920s) By Ekaterina Boltunova
  30. Australia: a Land of Missed Opportunities? By David Greasley; Nick Hanley; Eoin McLaughlin; Les Oxley
  31. Forty years of immigrant segregation in France, 1968-2007 How different is the new immigration? By Jean-Louis Pan Ké Shon; Gregory Verdugo

  1. By: Fleitas, Sebastian (University of Arizona); Fishback, Price (University of Arizona); Snowden, Kenneth (University of North Carolina Greensboro)
    Abstract: During the housing crisis of the 1930s long delays in the resolution of severely distressed Building and Loan associations led to the rapid diminution of these previously successful and important home mortgage lenders. These delays were caused by a unique contractual structure that created incentives for borrowing members to prolong dissolution and granted them control, along with non-borrowers, over the timing of liquidation. Using a new dataset of New Jersey B&Ls we estimate a voting model of dissolution and find that the probability of B&L liquidation rose 37 percent when the share of non-borrowing members rose above the two-thirds threshold. An average one-year delay in liquidation resulted that imposed costs on non-borrowing members roughly three times the gains borrowing members realized by delaying dissolution. These delays and costs contributed to the quick demise of the B&L and the rapid ascendancy of the modern Savings & Loan industry.
    Keywords: JEL Classification:
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Andrea Colli; Michelangelo Vasta
    Abstract: This paper, by merging a qualitative and quantitative approach, focuses on the evolution of business groups (BGs) in Italy along the XX century. By adopting the network analysis, and by using a large and comprehensive dataset (Imita.db), this paper provides various proxy measures of the relevance of the largest BGs in the Italian economy. The analysis, by also providing a taxonomy, clearly shows the persistence of large and entangled BGs in the Italian economy. Moreover, it shows that BGs are present not only among large firms, but in almost all the dimensional and juridical forms of the Italian firms. The paper, by challenging the conventional wisdom, confirms that BGs is neither limited to the less developed countries, nor is simply a second best functional substitute of the M-form characterizing big business around the world
    Keywords: business groups (BGs), network analysis, Italian capitalism
    Date: 2015–12
  3. By: Suresh Naidu; Noam Yuchtman
    Abstract: Although 19th century American labor markets were unencumbered by regulatory legislation, labor market institutions played an active role determining labor market outcomes and the distribution of income. We provide evidence of firm-specific rents in 19th century labor markets: employees in firms experiencing positive output price shocks earned significant wage premia, relative to very similar workers. Employees and employers bargained over rents in the labor contract, with workers striking to raise wages. We present data on strikes' frequency in the 19th century, and suggestive correlations between strikes and wages. The U.S. government supported employers in limiting strikes' efficacy. Strike-breaking actions included intervention by police and militia; employers often relied on less drastic, but still effective, judicial labor injunctions suppressing strikes. We document the rise of these injunctions, pointing to the important role played by the judicial branch in structuring (Northern) American labor market institutions prior to the rise of legislative regulation.
    JEL: N3 O10 P16
    Date: 2016–03
  4. By: Ernesto López Losa (Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, Spain); Santiago Piquero Zarauz
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to present a new estimation of real wages for Early Modern Spain with regard to a subsistence line -understood as a theoretical minimum of consumption necessary to meet basic human needs and to sustain an active life. Second, to contribute, with new evidence, to the debate on the economic divergence before the Industrial Revolution. In broad terms, our results describe a general picture of low real wages in Spain in the long run, although there are regional variations in levels and timings that challenge previous perceptions, particularly in the case of urban Castile. In terms of international comparisons, our data suggests different chronologies and magnitudes of the Spanish divergence. As we attempt to demonstrate, two issues conditioned the dimension of the gap on real wages between Spain and the European North-Western core, as displayed in the recent literature. The first is related to the available Spanish evidence; the second deals with some methodological choices in the composition of the subsistence baskets –namely, the “oatmeal effect’. The question we discuss here is whether the Spanish Little Divergence was as great and early as it has been suggested; or, turning it around, whether the European North-west was, in respect of real wages, so exceptional before 1800. Calculations will show that the divergence did not appear clearly until the early 18th century, and that North-western European real wages for labourers were not that far from the bare subsistence line as they appeared to be. Our paper provides some different responses to the issue of the timing of the Spanish divergence and questions the conventional wisdom on its magnitude.
    Keywords: Early Modern Europe, Little Divergence, real wages, subsistence ratios, history of wages and prices.
    JEL: N01 N30 N33 E32 J31
    Date: 2016–03
  5. By: Mari Carmen Pérez Artés (Universidad de Almería)
    Abstract: From 1888 until 1920 Almería threw out 22% of its population. It becomes the province with the largest gross rate of emigration of Spain. The paper analyzes this phenomenon with the objective to contribute to the literature on external and internal migrations in Spain. The source used are population censuses and 1888’s corrections census of Almeria, source not studied until today. We have obtained a database of 5,297 migrants. The source allows us to analyze the profile of migrant and family groups, social, economic, political and physical factors and the role of networks migration. We present a new empirical evidence, causes and characteristics of migration in late 19th century in Spain.
    Keywords: Migrations, 19th Century, Almería.
    JEL: N0 N3 N5 N7
    Date: 2016–03
  6. By: Jun, Bogang; Gerybadze, Alexander; Kim, Tai-Yoo
    Abstract: This study revisits the theory of Friedrich List from a more comprehensive and modernized perspective and applies it to the Korean history of industrialization. Although List is well known as the scholar who insisted on the protection of infant industry, his argument on protectionism is a part of the broader picture depicted in his book The National System of Political Economy (1841). This study follows his theoretical legacy in various fields of study. Although we can find his theoretical influence in several fields of research such as the national innovation system, concept of national competitiveness, and theory of developmental state, these studies fail to embrace all the arguments of List. Additionally, theses models focus more heavily on the explanation of historical and regional development phenomena without providing general principles of economic development behind the phenomena. This study therefore aims to suggest the expansive reproduction system as a generalized and modernized version of List's theory and to show its example by using the Korean history of industrialization. Consequently, we argue that the economic development of Korea has been achieved by putting the theory of List into practice.
    Keywords: Friedrich List,Economic Development,Korean Economic History,Economic Policy
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Loïc Charles (INED - Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques - INED - Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques); Guillaume Daudin (OFCE - Observatoire Français des Conjonctures économiques - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris - Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques [FNSP], LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine)
    Abstract: During the eighteenth century Europe Set the cultural, political and economic conditions for its entry in the industrial era.
    Keywords: economic history,Baltic,France,Eighteenth century,international trade statistics, Sound,globalization
    Date: 2016–03–15
  8. By: Young Hoon Lee (Department of Economics, Sogang University, Seoul)
    Abstract: This paper applies a panel data model with observed common factors to Major League Baseball (MLB) panel data from 1904 to 2012 to analyze attendance. In particular, it aims to identify common factors. The empirical results suggest that MLB fan preferences were simple in the early years (1904?1957) with respect to common factors and then became multi-faceted in later years (1958?2012), because the number of significant common factors increased from four to seven. Time trends and per capita gross domestic product were significant over the whole sample period, but outcome uncertainties and offensive performance, such as slugging performance, became newly significant common factors influencing attendance in later years. This indicates that fans consider not only their home team¡¯s characteristics but also the characteristics of the away teams; then, in the modern era, it became critical for the league to implement elaborate business measures to promote competitive balance and slugging performance.
    Keywords: Attendance, outcome uncertainty, common factors, factor loading, panel data, competitive balance
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Quamrul H. Ashraf (Williams College); Oded Galor (Brown University)
    Abstract: A vibrant literature has emerged in recent years to explore the influences of human evolution and the genetic composition of populations on the comparative economic performance of societies, highlighting the roles played by the Neolithic Revolution and the prehistoric "out of Africa" migration of anatomically modern humans in generating worldwide variations in the composition of genetic traits across populations. The recent attempt by Nicholas Wade's "A Troublesome Inheritance: Genes, Race and Human History" to expose the evolutionary origins of comparative economic development to a wider audience provides an opportunity to review this important literature in the context of his theory.
    Keywords: Comparative development, natural selection, human evolution, Malthusian era, Neolithic Revolution, genes, race
    JEL: O11 N10 N30 Z10
    Date: 2016–03
  10. By: Hart, Robert A. (University of Stirling); Moro, Mirko (University of Stirling); Roberts, J. Elizabeth (University of Stirling)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the introduction of free universal secondary education in England and Wales in 1944. It focuses on its effects in relation to a prime long-term goal of pre-war Boards of Education. This was to open secondary school education to children of all social backgrounds on equal terms. Adopting a difference-in-difference estimation approach, we do not find any evidence that boys and girls from less well-off home backgrounds displayed improved chances of attending selective secondary schools. Nor, for the most part, did they show increased probabilities of gaining formal school qualifications. One possible exception in this latter respect relates to boys with unskilled fathers.
    Keywords: family background, free secondary education, 1944 Education Act, school qualifications
    JEL: I21 I24 I28
    Date: 2016–03
  11. By: Warren E. Weber
    Abstract: This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard. Because the Bitcoin standard would closely resemble the gold standard, the paper explores the lessons about how it would perform by examining the classical gold standard period, specifically 1880–1913. The paper argues that because there would be virtually no arbitrage costs for international transactions, countries could not follow independent interest rate policies under the Bitcoin standard. However, central banks would still have some limited ability to act as lenders of last resort. Based on the experience during the classical gold standard period, the paper conjectures that there would be mild deflation and constant exchange rates under the Bitcoin standard. The paper also conjectures how long the Bitcoin standard might last if it were to come into existence.
    Keywords: E-Money, Exchange rates, Financial services, Inflation and prices
    JEL: E E4 E41 E42 E5 E58
    Date: 2016
  12. By: Massimiliano Vatiero (Istituto di Diritto (IDUSI), Facoltà di Economia, Università della Svizzera italiana, Lugano)
    Abstract: Although economies, business practices, and living standards have converged since WWII, corporate structures continue to differ among the advanced economies of the world. Looking at the diversity of corporate structures of large-sized firms around the world (and over time) would fascinate Charles Darwin. This work develops a critical review of the literature on political determinants of corporate governance through the Darwinian theory (including some Lamarckian aspects). As Darwin, in his work "On the Origin of Species", explicates the diversity of species of tortoises, finches, and iguanas of the Galapagos Islands, so Darwinism may contribute in understanding the origin and the persistence of corporate diversity. In particular, this article takes into account politics-driven variations, their inheritances, and the subsequent selection of advantageous "corporate" attributes.
    Keywords: Corporate governance, Darwin, politics, path-dependency
    JEL: G30 K22 J50
    Date: 2016–02
  13. By: A. Bergeaud; G. Cette; R. Lecat
    Abstract: 20th century growth has been an exceptional period in the history of mankind, relying mostly on increase in total factor productivity (TFP). Using a 1890-2013 17-OECD country database, this paper improves the measurement of TFP by taking into account production factor quality, i.e. the education level of the working-age population for labor and the age of equipment for the capital stock. However, our main contribution is to assess the role of technology diffusion to TFP growth through two emblematic general purpose technologies, electricity and information and communication technologies (ICT). Using both growth decomposition methodology and instrumental variables estimates, this paper finds that, among factor quality, education levels have posted the largest contribution to growth, while the age of capital has a significant, although limited, contribution. Quality-adjusted production factors explain less than half of labor productivity growth in the largest countries but Japan, where capital deepening posted a very large contribution. As a consequence, the “one big wave” of productivity growth (Gordon, 1999), as well as the ICT productivity wave for the countries which experienced it, remains only partially explained by quality-adjusted factors, although education and technology diffusion contribute to explain the US earlier wave in the 1930s-1940s. Finally, technology diffusion, as captured through our two general purpose technologies, leaves between 0.6 and 1 point of yearly growth, as well as a large share of the two 20th century technology waves, unexplained. These results support both a significant lag in the diffusion of general purpose technologies and a wider view on growth factors, encompassing changes in the production process, management techniques or financing practices.
    Keywords: Productivity, Total factor productivity, Education, Technological Change, Technology diffusion, Global History.
    JEL: N10 O47 E20
    Date: 2016
  14. By: Thiago Dumont Oliveira (N/A); Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: This paper assesses Robbins's participation in the Economic Advisory Council in 1930, drawing mostly on The Lionel Robbins Papers held atthe LSE. The divergences between him and Keynes are highlighted and an attempt is made to shed some light on Robbins' overarching interest on the interplay of economics as a science and political economy as a broader field that includes normative considerations. This renders invalid criticisms related to the absence of ethical considerations in Robbins' approach to economics. Specifically, some elements that would resurface in Robbins' later works are identified, and it is argued that the Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science should be situated within his larger purpose of illuminating the extent to which the science of economics could serve as an important tool – necessary, though not sufficient –to orient the formulation of public policies.
    Keywords: onel Robbins, Economic Advisory Council, Economics x Political Economy
    JEL: B20 B31
    Date: 2016–04
  15. By: Angel de la Fuente
    Abstract: En el presente trabajo se recopilan, extienden o construyen series regionales y nacionales de movimientos naturales de población, población de derecho, saldos migratorios netos y estructura por edades de la población para el período 1950-2015. También se construye una nueva serie de población residente corregida por migraciones no declaradas que intenta aproximar la población que realmente reside de forma habitual en cada territorio.
    Date: 2016–04
  16. By: Pierre DELFAUD
    Abstract: Now that agricultural surpluses, after the removal of quantitative restrictions put into effect thirty years ago, are beginning to reappear, it is an opportune moment to revisit the history of the Common Agricultural Policy. This policy in effect constituted a unique experiment which can only be understood, as in any policy of intervention in market economies, through the combination of three concepts: economic rationality, social acceptability and institutional capability. This can be verified throughout the sixty years of the CAP’s existence, from its formulation (1955-1962) to its establishment with successive readjustments (1962-1992) through to the gradual dismantling (1992-2015). We are thus faced with two models: firstly the policy of price regulation, secondly competition policy compensation.
    Keywords: History of Europe, agricultural policy, interventionism, price regulation, competition policy
    JEL: N54 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2016
  17. By: Wozniakowski, Tomasz P.
    Keywords: Arts and Humanities, Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2016–03–28
  18. By: Jason Long; Henry E. Siu
    Abstract: We construct longitudinal data from the U.S. Census records to study migration patterns of those affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our focus is on the famous "Okie" migration of the Southern Great Plains. We find that migration rates were much higher in the Dust Bowl than elsewhere in the U.S. This difference is due to the fact that individuals who were typically unlikely to move (e.g., those with young children, those living in their birth state) were equally likely to move in the Dust Bowl. While this result of elevated mobility conforms to long-standing perceptions of the Dust Bowl, our other principal findings contradict conventional wisdom. First, relative to other occupations, farmers in the Dust Bowl were the least likely to move; this relationship between mobility and occupation was unique to that region. Second, out-migration rates from the Dust Bowl region were only slightly higher than they were in the 1920s. Hence, the depopulation of the Dust Bowl was due largely to a sharp drop in migration inflows. Dust Bowl migrants were no more likely to move to California than migrants from other parts of the U.S., or those from the same region ten years prior. In this sense, the westward push from the Dust Bowl to California was unexceptional. Finally, migration from the Dust Bowl was not associated with long-lasting negative labor market effects, and for farmers, the effects were positive.
    JEL: J61 J62 N12 N32
    Date: 2016–03
  19. By: Edgardo Zablotsky
    Abstract: The philanthropic activity of Baron de Hirsch was clearly marked by one characteristic: not providing charity but attempting the economic rehabilitation of the beneficiaries. Hirsch systematically suggests that education and professional training were the only way to break the vicious circle of poverty. For instance, for more than a decade Baron de Hirch spent his time and money in the economic rehabilitation of his coreligionists, both in the Ottoman Empire and in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, through education and professional training. In 1891, after discarding the possibility of improving the quality of life of Jews in the Russian Empire through the establishment of an educational system, similar to what was done in other societies, Hirsch founded the Jewish Colonization Association (J.C.A.) through which he would manage the immigration of thousands of people to Argentina and their settlement in agricultural colonies. The original rules of the J.C.A. gave Hirsch full control over the activities of the Association; therefore, this paper hypothesized that the educational actions of the Jewish Colonization Association in the colonies should have been all consistent with Hirsch’s vision on education. The evidence presented clearly supports this hypothesis.
    Keywords: Barón Maurice de Hirsch, Jewish Colonization Association, education
    JEL: D64
    Date: 2016–03
  20. By: Rebecca Williams (Reserve Bank of New Zealand); Les Oxley (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: At the turn of the twentieth century, New Zealand was one of the wealthiest nations in the world on a per capita basis. We examine the role of innovation in explaining New Zealand’s economic performance. Using a new dataset on patent applications for the period 1880-1895, we consider whether the geographical concentration of innovative activity influenced economic activity. We find relationships between agricultural and pastoral output indices and inventiveness and between different regions and related industries. The results, however, are relatively weak. We conclude that tests of agglomeration effects in New Zealand during this period deserve further attention.
    Keywords: inventiveness; agglomeration; patents; knowledge spill-overs; New Zealand
    JEL: O3 N7 N1
    Date: 2016–03–31
  21. By: Tetsuji Okazak (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Michiru Sawada (College of Economics, Nihon University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the extent of political connections of firms, and examines their implications on firm values, using firm-level data from prewar Japan. We collect the data of directors, their positions in the House of Representatives, stock prices and financial performance, on publicly traded companies in late 1920s and early 1930s Japan. It is found that almost 20% of the publicly traded companies had political connections through politician directors. Especially, firms in the regulated industries such as the electric power and railroad, were more likely to have political connections. Overall, there is no evidence that connections with politics added firm values. On the other hand, with respect to those firms that newly obtained political connections, we found that the stock returns improved from the pre-election period to the post-election period.
  22. By: Carneiro, Pedro (University College London); Lee, Sokbae (Seoul National University); Reis, Hugo (Banco de Portugal)
    Abstract: The vast majority of immigrants to the United States at the beginning of the 20th century adopted first names that were common among natives. The rate of adoption of an American name increases with time in the US, although most immigrants adopt an American name within the first year of arrival. Choice of an American first name was associated with a more successful assimilation, as measured by job occupation scores, marriage to a US native and take-up of US citizenship. We examine economic determinants of name choice, by studying the relationship between changes in the proportion of immigrants with an American first name and changes in the concentration of immigrants as well as changes in local labor market conditions, across different census years. We find that high concentrations of immigrants of a given nationality in a particular location discouraged members of that nationality from taking American names. Poor local labor market conditions for immigrants (and good local labor market conditions for natives) led to more frequent name changes among immigrants.
    Keywords: Americanization, culture, first name, identity, immigration
    JEL: J15 N32
    Date: 2016–03
  23. By: David de la Croix; Matthias Doepke; Joel Mokyr
    Abstract: In the centuries leading up to the Industrial Revolution, Western Europe gradually pulled ahead of other world regions in terms of technological creativity, population growth, and income per capita. We argue that superior institutions for the creation and dissemination of productive knowledge help explain the European advantage. We build a model of technological progress in a pre-industrial economy that emphasizes the person-to-person transmission of tacit knowledge. The young learn as apprentices from the old. Institutions such as the family, the clan, the guild, and the market organize who learns from whom. We argue that medieval European institutions such as guilds, and specific features such as journeymanship, can explain the rise of Europe relative to regions that relied on the transmission of knowledge within extended families or clans.
    JEL: E02 J24 N10 N30 O33 O43
    Date: 2016–03
  24. By: Mark A Carlson; Jonathan Rose
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the run on Continental Illinois in 1984. We find that the run slowed but did not stop following an extraordinary government intervention, which included the guarantee of all liabilities of the bank and a commitment to provide ongoing liquidity support. Continental's outflows were driven by a broad set of US and foreign financial institutions. These were large, sophisticated creditors with holdings far in excess of the insurance limit. During the initial run, creditors with relatively liquid balance sheets nevertheless withdrew more than other creditors, likely reflecting low tolerance to hold illiquid assets. In addition, smaller and moredistant creditors were more likely to withdraw. In the second and more drawn out phase of the run, institutions with relative large exposures to Continental were more likely to withdraw, reflecting a general unwillingness to have an outsized exposure to a troubled institution even in the absence of credit risk. Finally, we show that the concentration of holdings of Continental's liabilities was a key dynamic in the run and was importantly linked to Continental's systemic importance.
    Keywords: bank runs, deposit insurance, deposit guarantee, financial crisis
    Date: 2016–03
  25. By: Alan S. Blinder (Princeton University); Mark W. Watson (Princeton University)
    Abstract: The U.S. economy has grown faster—and scored higher on many other macroeconomic metrics-- hen the President of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican. For many measures, including real GDP growth (on which we concentrate), the performance gap is both large and statistically significant, despite the fact that postwar history includes only 16 complete presidential terms. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters (such as differential trends or mean reversion), nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior TFP performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. Many other potential explanations are examined but fail to explain the partisan growth gap.
    Date: 2014–07
  26. By: Roland Pongou (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)
    Abstract: The preconception origins hypothesis holds that some of the preconception and prenatal environmental factors that have been shown to determine the offspring sex ratio also explain sex differences in early-age mortality (Pongou 2013). It extends and complements the biological hypothesis, which affirms that the mortality sex gap originates in biological and genetic differences between the sexes. As such, it offers a broad framework for understanding changes in male–female differences in early-age mortality across space and over time. I argue that this hypothesis is consistent with the concurrent increase in the proportion of female births and in the relative mortality of female to male infants in the United States since World War II.
    Keywords: Sex differences in early-age mortality; preconception origins hypothesis; biological hypothesis
    JEL: J10 I10
    Date: 2015
  27. By: Kevin M.F. Platt (University of Pennsylvania); Konstantin Polivanov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The relationship between the individual and historical processes was one of Boris Pasternak’s persistent and central concerns, from his earliest lyrics, to his experiments with long-form poems and prose at mid-career, to his late masterwork, the novel Doktor Zhivago (Doctor Zhivago). Pasternak’s oeuvre poses the questions of what the lyric poet can say about history, and how to say it. Among his earliest, most complex and perhaps least critically understood attempts to answer these questions is the 1920-23 poetic cycle “Bolezn'” (“Illness”). In particular, the third poem of this cycle, “Mozhet stat'sia tak, mozhet inache” (“It can happen like that, or other¬wise”), is among Pasternak’s most dense and enigmatic works. To our mind, it also contains the central keys to reading the cycle “Bolezn'” and to Pasternak’s earliest attempts to make lyric sense of historical experience. The present article is an attempt to read this poem, the cycle that contains it, and through this, the counterintuitive potential of the lyric mode as an instrument for historical thought. Drawing on an examination of the construction of the poem and its web of allusions to Russian and world literature, as well as to the contexts of Pasternak’s biography, as well as recent work on lyric and avant-garde temporality, the article describes “Mozhet stat'sia tak, mozhet inache” as an evocation of the complex fabric of temporal linkages binding Russian culture together at a moment when the temporal sequence itself had been upended in what Pasternak envisioned as a “purga” (“blizzard”) of revolutionary transformation.
    Keywords: Boris Pasternak, Russian poetry, Russian History, Russian Revolution
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  28. By: Gary D. Hansen; Lee E. Ohanian
    Abstract: This chapter develops a toolkit of neoclassical macroeconomic models, and applies these models to the U.S. economy from 1929 through 2014. We first filter macroeconomic time series into business cycle and long-run components, and show that the long-run component is typically much larger than the business cycle component. We argue that this empirical feature is naturally addressed within neoclassical models with long-run changes in technologies and government policies. We construct two classes of models that we compare to raw data, and also to the filtered data: simple neoclassical models, which feature standard preferences and technologies, rational expectations, and a unique, Pareto-optimal equilibrium, and extended neoclassical models, which build in government policies and market imperfections. We focus on models with multiple sources of technological change, and models with distortions arising from regulatory, labor, and fiscal policies. The models account for much of the relatively stable postwar U.S. economy, and also for the Great Depression and World War II. The models presented in this chapter can be extended and applied more broadly to other settings. We close by identifying several avenues for future research in neoclassical macroeconomics.
    JEL: E13 E2 E6
    Date: 2016–03
  29. By: Ekaterina Boltunova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article explores how Bolshevik/Soviet authorities took on and adapted the Russian imperial topography of power i.e. the system of special structures that intended to convey state ideology (monuments to tsars and statesmen, emperors’ residences with their various ceremonial spaces, administrative buildings, and those museums which play a role in power representation). The research traces the changing attitudes to the Russian Empire’s space of power in 1917 – late 1920s that varied from destructing such spatial objects to adapting them to the objectives of propaganda. It argues that with the time being appropriation strategies (renaming, recoding, creating of revolutionary memorials etc.) appeared to have better prospects than straightforward disavowal or destruction. The imperial space of power provided some opportunities to propagate novel and/or universal connotations of power and gradually was found relevant for the needs of the Soviet regime
    Keywords: Discourse of Power, Topography, Cultural Heritage, Moscow Kremlin, Winter Palace (Hermitage)
    JEL: N94
    Date: 2016
  30. By: David Greasley (Emeritus Professor of Economic History, University of Edinburgh); Nick Hanley (Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews); Eoin McLaughlin (Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews); Les Oxley (Department of Economics, University of Waikato)
    Abstract: Comprehensive Investment (CI) may provide an indicator of future changes in a country’s per capita consumption. We explore the utility of the CI indicator for Australia by constructing CI data since 1861 and by estimating their relationship with changes in future consumption over periods of 50 years ahead. The CI measures include changes in natural, produced and human capital, and make allowance for exogenous technological progress.The results are used to consider how Australia’s natural capital exploitation influenced the consumption of future generations. Further, we gauge if low CI relative to other leading OECD countries resulted in lower consumption levels in Australia over time than feasible, had it saved more.
    Keywords: Australia, sustainable development, comprehensive investment, genuine savings, consumption, technological progress.
    JEL: E01 E21 N10 N17 O11 O44 Q01
    Date: 2016–03
  31. By: Jean-Louis Pan Ké Shon (LSQ - Laboratoire de sociologie quantitative - Centre de Recherche en Économie et STatistique (CREST)); Gregory Verdugo (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Analysing restricted access census data, this paper examines the long-term trends of immigrant segregation in France from 1968 to 2007. Similar to other European countries, France experienced a rise in the proportion of immigrants in its population that was characterised by a new predominance of non-European immigration. Despite this, average segregation levels remained moderate. While the number of immigrant enclaves increased, particularly during the 2000s, the average concentration for most groups decreased because of a reduction of heavily concentrated census tracts and census tracts with few immigrants. Contradicting frequent assertions, neither mono-ethnic census tract nor ghettoes exist in France. By contrast, many immigrants live in census tracts characterised by a low proportion of immigrants from their own group and from all origins. A long residential period in France is correlated with lower concentrations and proportion of immigrants in the census tract for most groups, though these effects are sometimes modest. 1 The authors accessed the Census data via the Centre d'accès sécurisé distant (CASD), dedicated to the use of authorized researchers, following the approval of the Comité français du secret statistique. This research was partially supported by a French State grant ANR-10-EQPX-17 (Centre d'accès sécurisé aux données-CASD). We thank three anonymous referees for insightful comments. Jean-Louis Pan Ké Shon would also like to thank Loïc Wacquant for his comments during discussions in the early stage of this project. This paper does not necessarily reflect the views of the Banque de France.
    Keywords: France,Segregation,Immigration
    Date: 2015

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