nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2016‒03‒06
thirty papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. The rise of a financial revolution in Republican China in 1900-1937: an institutional narrative By Debin Ma
  2. The curious incident of the franc in the Gambia: exchange rate instability and imperial monetary systems in the 1920s By Leigh Gardner
  3. Estatura y mortalidad infantil durante la guerra civil y la autorquía: La comunidad Valenciana By Javier Puche, Antonio D. Cámara y José M. Martínez Carrion; Antonio D. Cámara; José M. Martínez Carrion
  4. Immigration and the Path-Dependence of Education: German-Speaking Immigrants, On-the-Job Skills, and Ethnic Schools in São Paulo, Brazil (1840-1920) By Bruno Gabriel Witzel de Souza
  6. La stima e l’interpretazione dei divari regionali nel lungo periodo: i risultati principali e alcune tracce di ricerca By Felice, Emanuele
  7. Fact and Fantasy in Soviet Records: The Documentation of Soviet Party and Secret Police Investigations as Historical Evidence By Harrison, Mark
  8. Frederic S. Lee and His Fight for the Future of Heterodox Economics By Jo, Tae-Hee
  9. Subsidies to the History of the German-Speaking Immigration to the Province / State of São Paulo, Brazil (1840-1920) By Bruno Gabriel Witzel de Souza
  11. Bread and Bullets By Akerlof, George A.; Snower, Dennis J.
  12. Trade, Relative Prices, and the Canadian Great Depression By Amaral, Pedro S.; MacGee, James
  13. Time-Varying Correlations between Inflation and Stock Prices in the United States over the Last Two Centuries By Nikolaos Antonakakis; Rangan Gupta; Aviral K. Tiwari
  14. Sovereign Defaults and Political Regime Transitions By Adam, Antonis; Karanatsis, Konstas
  15. Piketty in the long run By Frank A Cowell
  16. Banking and Industrialization By Stephan Heblich; Alex Trew
  17. Intercambios comerciales en la Confederación Granadina según la Comisión Corográfica, 1850-1856 By Vallecilla Gordillo, Jaime; Botero, María Mercedes
  18. Clower's about-face regarding the 'Keynesian Revolution' By Plassard, Romain
  19. The Causal Effects of World War II Military Service By Cousley, Alex; Siminski, Peter; Ville, Simon
  20. Monopoly Capital and Capitalist Inefficiency By Lambert, Thomas; Kwon, Ed
  21. Great expectations, veto players, and the changing politics of banking crises By Jeffrey Chwieroth; Andrew Walter
  22. The economic effects of long-term climate change: evidence from the little ice age By Maria Waldinger
  23. The Postulate of the Three Regimes of Economic Growth Contradicted by Data By Ron W Nielsen
  24. Causes and Consequences of the Protestant Reformation By Becker, Sascha O.; Pfaff, Steven; Rubin, Jared
  25. La Reichsbank, une banque de guerre ? By Claude Diebolt
  26. Estatura y esperanza de vida: Una propuesta de revisión de las series antropométricas españolas a partir de una medida alternativa de sobrevivencia By Antonio M. Linares-Luján; Francisco M. Parejo-Moruno
  27. La deuda pública: El bálsamo financiero del régimen de Franco (1939-1975) By Francisco Comín Comín
  28. Industrial Dynamics: A Review of the Literature 1990-2009 By Carlsson , Bo
  29. What young English people do once they reach school-leaving age: a cross-cohort comparison for the last 30 years By Jake Anders; Richard Dorsett
  30. L'enseignement commercial en France durant le XIXème siècle : évolution et impact sur le développement de savoirs explicités à l'intention des gestionnaires By Cédric Poivret

  1. By: Debin Ma
    Abstract: This paper surveys the phenomenal transformation of banking and finance, public debt and monetary regimes during 1900-1937, a period of great political instability in Chinese history. To understand why sectors which are often most vulnerable to the security of property rights and contract enforcement, have become the vanguard of growth in such an era of uncertainty, I highlight the role of institutions as seen in the form of a business dominated quasi-political structure that grew outside the formal political sphere. This structure rested on the institutional nexus of Western treaty ports (with Shanghai being the important) and China Maritime Customs service, a relatively autonomous tax bureaucracy. By ensuring the credibility of repayment of government bonds, this financial-fiscal mechanism laid the institutional foundation for the rise of modern Chinese banks, a viable market for public debt and increasing supply of reputable convertible bank notes during this era of national dis-integration. Our narrative carries far-reaching implications on the ongoing great divergence debate.
    Keywords: China; financial revolution; public debt; credible commitment
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2016–02
  2. By: Leigh Gardner
    Abstract: In 1922, British colonial Gambia demonetized the French 5-franc coin, which had been legal tender at a fixed rate in the colony since 1843. Until World War I, this rate was close to the international rate under the gold standard. When the franc began to depreciate in 1918, however, a gap emerged between the Gambian rate and the international rate, prompting a rapid influx of the coins. The demonetization cost the colonial administration over a year's revenue, affecting the later development of the colony. The 1920s have long been a fruitful period for the study of monetary history owing to the instability of exchange rates during and after the war. This article extends the study of this period to examine the impact of these changes on dependent colonies in West Africa, highlighting the importance of local compromises and particularities in colonial monetary systems.
    Keywords: colonialism; exchange rates; West Africa
    JEL: N17 N27 N47
    Date: 2015–12
  3. By: Javier Puche, Antonio D. Cámara y José M. Martínez Carrion (Universidad de Zaragoza); Antonio D. Cámara; José M. Martínez Carrion
    Abstract: This article analyzes the biological wellbeing among male conscripts in the region of Valencia (Eastern Spain) during the Civil War and the subsequent period of autarchy during Franco’s dictatorship. For this purpose we use 124,284 height records from 20yr conscripts born between 1900 and 1954 from ten municipalities along with region-level infant mortality rates. We analyze inter-cohort deviations from a secular trend which is established upon cohorts that were not exposed to war and postwar-related environmental stress. Results show that the mean height cohort trend slowed down meaningfully among cohorts that were raised in the context of the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) and/or during the autarchic postwar decade (1940-1949). Interestingly, the effects of this environmental stress are to have been greater during the adolescent period. The height series at the local level evidence very dissimilar magnitudes of the nutritional crisis in this Spanish region. The worsening of the net nutritional status was greater in industrial towns as well as in rural areas with some agriculture specialization. By contrast, the impact of war and postwar, as measure by height, was negligible in other areas. Finally, although infant mortality declined during the decade of 1940s the combined analysis of height and mortality uncovers that such decline was likely associated with medical advances and interventions in the field of hygiene rather than with improved nutrition.
    Keywords: Height, nutrition, infant mortality, Civil War, autarchy, Spain
    JEL: D63 I31 N34 N54
    Date: 2016–02
  4. By: Bruno Gabriel Witzel de Souza (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of German-speaking immigrants on the path dependence of human capital accumulation in the State São Paulo, Brazil. Using a new dataset based on Almanacs from 1873 and 1888, we are able to test if (i) the cultural component, (ii) immigrants' on-the-job-skills, and (iii) their ethnic schools influenced the historical accumulation of human capital. No robust evidence was found for the first two explanations. On the other hand, for the 1910s, German schools had strong positive impacts on enrollment, not only for private, but also for state schools, a result which suggests the occurrence of spillover and contagion effects. Such impact tends, however, to dissipate over time and it does not survive for current educational performance. In addition, the paper shows that the pathdependence of education is conditional on the type of school: while there is a positive persistence in enrollment in private schools over the 20th century, enrollment in state schools depends negatively on its historical levels, reflecting convergence toward 100% enrollment rates in primary schooling. Furthermore, current stocks of human capital, measured by illiteracy and years of education, are shown to be strongly impacted by completion and enrollment in state schools back in the 1910s.
    Date: 2016–02–09
  5. By: Marion Dieudonné (LEDA-SDFi - LEDA-SDFi - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine, PSL - Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: Thorstein Veblen published an important book in 1904, The Theory of Business Enterprise, in which he focused on the financial theory of the business enterprise. Although this book was an early contribution to corporate finance, it is little-known compared with Absentee Ownership, published in 1923. From the perspective of his institutionalist tradition, Veblen observes and describes the transition of business enterprise to corporation finance. We can identify a trinity: credit, shares and goodwill. For Veblen, this trinity refers to predation, oligarchic power and goodwill-seeking, which are the guiding principles of the new era of corporate governance. Our aim is to bring to the light the links established by Veblen between credit, shares and goodwill that seem too little explored in the literature. According to Veblen, credit, shares and goodwill form a system which lay at the heart of American business in the early 20th century. Through his work The Theory of Business Enterprise, Veblen gives us an early and significant U.S analysis of the two-sided concept of goodwill. The book was one of the first institutionalist studies of the firm, opening the way for many other works on behavior within and between companies. In order to highlight this, we propose a literature review allowing a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the concept of goodwill, its definition, valorization, and ambiguities. This overall perspective is not made by the literature.
    Keywords: earning capacity, credit,common shares and preferred shares, corporate finance, goodwill, insiders and outsiders, Veblen
    Date: 2016–01–29
  6. By: Felice, Emanuele
    Abstract: [English] The essay outlines the main achievements in the estimation of the GDP of the Italian regions in the long term, and the resulting interpretation of the pattern of regional inequality. The latest estimates of regional GDP, for ten-year intervals from 1871 to 1951, at historical and present boundaries, are here presented and discussed; new possible lines of research, which would improve the reliability of some figures proposed, are also sketched out. In terms of interpretation, the available estimates allow us to test cross-sectional models of conditional convergence, which suggest the presence of negative fixed effects slowing down the growth rate of the southern regions. Rather than to geographical factors or the market size, these fixed effects appear to be due to different socio-institutional conditions, that historically would have determined the levels of human capital, social capital, as well as the outcomes of development and infrastructural policies. In the future the analytical and the interpretative paths should continue to proceed interwoven: the achievement of reliable GDP estimates at the provincial level, fort both the liberal age and the interwar years, would allow to qualify and possibly expand the interpretative framework. [Italian] Il saggio analizza i principali risultati nella ricostruzione del Pil delle regioni italiane e dà conto dell’interpretazione sull’andamento dei divari che ne risulta. Le più aggiornate stime del Pil regionale, per intervalli decennali dal 1871 al 1951, ai confini storici e attuali, vengono presentate e discusse, e nuove possibili linee di ricerca, che permetterebbero di migliorare ulteriormente l’attendibilità di alcuni dati proposti, sono brevemente illustrate. Sul versante dell’interpretazione, le stime disponibili consentono di testare modelli di convergenza condizionale, con dati sezionali, che indicano la presenza di effetti fissi negativi sulla crescita delle regioni meridionali. Più che a fattori geografici o di mercato, gli effetti fissi sembrano riconducibili a una difformità di condizioni socio-istituzionali, la quale storicamente ha influenzato i diversi livelli di capitale umano, di capitale sociale, come pure gli esiti delle politiche di sviluppo e infrastrutturali. Il percorso analitico e quello interpretativo dovrebbero continuare a procedere di pari passo, anche in futuro: la realizzazione di stime storiche relativamente attendibili del Pil provinciale, per l’età liberale e per gli anni fra le due guerre, potrà consentire di verificare in maniera più approfondita, ed eventualmente di perfezionare, il modello interpretativo proposto.
    Keywords: GDP estimates, regional inequality, convergence
    JEL: N94 O18 R11
    Date: 2015–08–27
  7. By: Harrison, Mark (Department of Economics and CAGE (Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy) University of Warwick)
    Abstract: When we use Soviet documentation of political and secret police investigations to write history, to what extent are we vulnerable to the biases and inventions of the investigators? The problem is framed as one of principal and agent. It is argued that Soviet principals allowed their agents scope to manipulate facts and bias interpretations, not freely, but within strict limits that were laid down from above and varied from time to time. These limits were set by the leader’s “revolutionary insight,” the communist equivalent of what passes in more open societies today as “truthiness.” An understanding of the Soviet truthiness of the particular time is the best guide we have to interpreting the documentary records of that time. Evaluating them in this light, we see that Soviet historical documents are little different from the records of any other time and place.
    Keywords: communism; dictatorship; information; Soviet Union; truthiness
    JEL: D83 N44
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Jo, Tae-Hee
    Abstract: Frederic S. Lee (1949-2014) was a dedicated captain of the heterodox economics movement over the past thirty years. In his unfaltering fight for the future of heterodox economics, Lee contributed to both the development of heterodox microeconomic theory and the establishment of a global community of heterodox economists. This short tribute delineates Lee’s unique and important contribution that should be remembered and renewed in order to reproduce heterodox economics.
    Keywords: Frederic S. Lee, Heterodox Economics, Heterodox Microeconomics
    JEL: B21 B31 B50
    Date: 2016–01–12
  9. By: Bruno Gabriel Witzel de Souza (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a chronology for the German-speaking immigration to São Paulo, Brazil (1840-1920) by identifying four main types: (i) spontaneous individual immigration; (ii) specialized laborers in public works, mainly road construction; (iii) indentured laborers in the plantations, mainly under the sharecropping system; (iv) settlers in official and private rural colonies. In the sequence, the immigration waves of the last two types are studied in detail, showing how they interconnected over time and how similar their processes of integration were. Such chronology aims to provide a framework for future studies about immigration waves to São Paulo, in general, and of German-speakers, in particular, complementing two strands in the literature. First, it provides a more dynamic perspective for the classical literature on the history of labor contracts, which is indirectly related to the immigration of German-speakers, but static in listing episodic events related to the latter. Second, it frames, under a more general perspective, specialized studies focused on specific impacts of the immigrants, such as current monographs about the history of education and German schools/institutions.
    Keywords: German-speaking immigrants, immigration, coffee plantations, sharecropping, official colonies
    Date: 2016–02–09
  10. By: Horioka, Charles Yuji
    Abstract: Martin Stuart ("Marty") Feldstein, currently George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER), is an American economist who has made important contributions to public finance, macroeconomics, international economics, social insurance, health economics, the economics of national security, and many other fields of economics, trained a large number of prominent economists, served as President of the National Bureau of Economic Research for some thirty years, and served as President Ronald Reagan's chief economic advisor.
    Keywords: Capital accumulation, capital gains tax, charitable giving, Council of Economic Advisors, deadweight loss, economics of national security, euro, European Monetary Union, Feldstein, M., Feldstein-Horioka paradox, Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, health economics, health insurance, home bias, inflation, international capital flows, international capital mobility, investment, National Bureau of Economic Research, pensions, public finance, public pensions, saving, social insurance, social security, tax expenditures, taxation, unemployment compensation, unemployment insurance, Capital accumulation, capital gains tax, charitable giving, Council of Economic Advisors, deadweight loss, economics of national security, euro, European Monetary Union, Feldstein, M., Feldstein-Horioka paradox, Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, health economics, health insurance, home bias, inflation, international capital flows, international capital mobility, investment, National Bureau of Economic Research, pensions, public finance, public pensions, saving, social insurance, social security, tax expenditures, taxation, unemployment compensation, unemployment insurance
    JEL: B31 D14 D22 E21 F21 F32 F33 F52 H20 H55 I13 J65
    Date: 2015–03
  11. By: Akerlof, George A. (Georgetown University); Snower, Dennis J. (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
    Abstract: Standard economics omits the role of narratives (the stories that people tell themselves and others) when they make all kinds of decisions. Narratives play a role in understanding the environment; focusing attention; predicting events; motivating action; assigning social roles and identities; defining power relations; and establishing and conveying social norms. This paper describes the role narratives play in decision making, as it also juxtaposes this description against the backdrop of the Bolshevik-spawned narrative that played a critical role in the history of Russia and the Soviet Union in the 20th Century.
    Keywords: narrative, motivation, attention, prediction, identity, social assignment
    JEL: A12 A13 A14 D03 D04 D20 D23 D30 D62 D71 D72 D74 E02
    Date: 2016–02
  12. By: Amaral, Pedro S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); MacGee, James (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
    Abstract: Canadian GNP per capita fell by roughly a third between 1928 and 1933. Although the decline and the slow recovery of GNP resemble the American Great Depression, trade was more important in Canada, as exports and imports each accounted for roughly a quarter of Canadian GNP in 1928. The fall in the trade share of GNP of roughly 30 percent between 1928 and 1933 was accompanied by a decline of over 20 percent in the relative prices of exports and imports relative to nontraded goods. We develop a three-sector small open economy model, where wages in the nontraded and import competing sectors adjust slowly due to Taylor contracts. We feed the relative prices of imports and exports from the data into the model, and find that the fall in traded goods prices can account for roughly half of the fall in GNP during the Canadian Great Contraction.
    Keywords: Great Depression; Sectoral Models; Trade; Relative Prices; Sticky Wages;
    JEL: E20 E30 E50
    Date: 2016–02–12
  13. By: Nikolaos Antonakakis (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Portsmouth; Department of Business and Management, Webster Vienna Private University and Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Aviral K. Tiwari (Faculty of Management, IBS Hyderabad, IFHE University, India)
    Abstract: The relationship between stock prices and the inflation can be either negative or positive, depending on the strengths of various theoretical channels at work. While previous studies have primarily examined this relationship in a time-invariant framework, and if at all a time-varying framework is used, it has been restricted to the post World War II period. Given this, we employ a time-varying approach to examine the dynamic correlations of inflation and stock prices in the United States over the period of 1791 to 2015. The results of our empirical analysis reveal that correlations between the inflation and stock prices in the United States evolve heterogeneously overtime. In particular, the correlations are significantly positive in the 1840s, 1860s, 1930s and 2011, and significantly negative otherwise. The policy implications of these findings are then discussed.
    Keywords: Conditional correlation, GARCH, Inflation and Stock Price Comovement, US Economy
    JEL: C32 C50 E31 E44 G1 N1
    Date: 2016–01
  14. By: Adam, Antonis; Karanatsis, Konstas
    Abstract: The view put forth in the present paper is that economic fluctuations emerge to change the political landscape. In this context it is hypothesized that state defaults are associated with autocratic polity changes. To support this view we use a dataset of all state defaults from 1800 to 2004 and examine the empirical validity of the hypothesis that a state default leads to a decline in the level of democracy. Then we examine 3 case studies of state defaults that are consistent with our hypothesis: Spain in 1852, Greece in 1932 and Ecuador in 2000. The econometric results and the historical analysis of the three case studies are consistent with our main hypothesis.
    Keywords: State Default, Autocracy, Political Transitions
    JEL: F34
    Date: 2016–01–11
  15. By: Frank A Cowell
    Abstract: I examine the idea of 'the long run' in Piketty (2014) and related works. In contrast to simplistic interpretations of long-run models of income- and wealth-distribution Piketty (2014) draws on a rich economic analysis that models the intra- and inter-generational processes that underlie the development of the wealth distribution. These processes inevitably involve both market and non-market mechanisms. To understand this approach, and to isolate the impact of different social and economic factors on inequality in the long run, we use the concept of an equilibrium distribution. However the long-run analysis of policy should not presume that there is an inherent tendency for the wealth distribution to approach equilibrium.
    Keywords: long run, income distribution, wealth distribution, inequality, inheritance, equilibrium
    JEL: D31
    Date: 2015–02
  16. By: Stephan Heblich (University of Bristol); Alex Trew (University of St. Andrews)
    Abstract: We exploit employment data from 10,528 parishes across nineteenth century England and Wales and find that a one standard deviation increase in finance employment increases the annualized growth rate of secondary labour by 0.8 percentage points. An endogenous growth model with finance and structural transformation motivates the empirical approach. Since initial banking access in 1817 may have been endogenously determined, we use instrumental variables to predict the location of country banks founded before the industrial take-off could possibly be expected. Distance and subsectoral analysis suggest that the effect of finance is highly localized and particularly strong for intermediate secondary sectors.
    Keywords: Banking; industrial revolution; structural transformation; regional economic growth; urbanization.
    JEL: O11 O16 O40 N23 R11
    Date: 2015–09–07
  17. By: Vallecilla Gordillo, Jaime; Botero, María Mercedes
    Abstract: This paper analyzes differents aspects of internal trade taking place during the mid 19th century throughout the several regions of Colombia. This is precisely the priod when the agro-export economy began. It is based on Data and economic information found in several differents publications of La Comisión Corográfica (the work of Italian geographer Agustin Codazzi, who explored, characterized and drew maps of Colombia´s provinces between 1850 and 1859). This paper shows that regional flows of goods (mainly cattle and textiles) were frequent in certain areas; especially in the eastern Andean provinces of Colombia.
    Keywords: Regional History; 19th Century; agriculture; regional trade; Colombia; Chorografic Commission
    JEL: N56 N96
    Date: 2010–07
  18. By: Plassard, Romain
    Abstract: Robert W. Clower’s article “The Keynesian Counter-Revolution: A Theoretical Appraisal” (1965) deeply influenced the course of Keynesian macroeconomics by contributing to the transition from IS/LM macroeconomics to fix-price theories. Despite this influence, no scholar proposed to explain its origins, with the notable exception of Roger E. Backhouse and Mauro Boianovsky (2013). They explained that the 1965 piece was the result of an independent research program rooted in the works of Clower during the 1950s. My paper aims to offer an alternative explanation. It is synthesized in the metaphor of an about-face to stress that a theoretical break is at the origin of this contribution. This break, initiated in the early 1960s, is characterized by a double change in perspective (individual equilibrium vs. individual disequilibrium, and compatibility vs. incompatibility between Keynesian and Walrasian theories). The intellectual context, particularly Don Patinkin (1956; 1958), will be invoked to trace the roots of this about-face. Consequently, rather than independency and linearity, I argue that dependency and non-linearity are the two salient features of Clower’s intellectual path.
    Keywords: microfoundations of macroeconomics, disequilibrium theory, instability of the full employment equilibrium, Clower.
    JEL: B21 B22 D50
    Date: 2015–09
  19. By: Cousley, Alex (University of Wollongong); Siminski, Peter (University of Wollongong); Ville, Simon (University of Wollongong)
    Abstract: The effects of military service have been studied for decades, but surprisingly few studies have estimated the effects of World War II (WW2) service, where the focus has been on the impact of this 'total war' on the broader civilian population. Over 90% of Australian males born in the early 1920s served in the military during WW2. Almost none of those born in the late 1920s served. Treating such cohort differences as exogenous, we conduct one of the first econometric studies of WW2 service. We consider major life outcomes including employment, marital status and home ownership, all measured in 1966, while the economy was strong and male employment was very high. We find a significant negative effect on employment, half of which is accompanied by pensioner status. We find positive effects on home ownership and on separation/divorce. A feature of our analysis is a novel visual depiction of the variation which identifies the estimates, drawing on the Frisch-Waugh theorem.
    Keywords: military service, Australia, World War Two, Frisch-Waugh theorem
    JEL: H56 N37 N47
    Date: 2016–02
  20. By: Lambert, Thomas; Kwon, Ed
    Abstract: This paper examines the arguments and assertions of Baran’s and Sweezy’s Monopoly Capital: An Essay on the American Economic and Social Order (1966) by assessing the degree of economic efficiency or inefficiency in how surplus value and economic surplus were created by 16 major capitalist economies during the 2000s using data envelopment analysis (DEA). After assigning a score to the degree of economic efficiency/inefficiency for each country, one can then assess which factors influence the degree of efficiency/inefficiency. This paper finds empirical support for many of the arguments put forth by the authors, Baran and Sweezy, as well as others regarding the inefficiency of the use of some forms of economic activity to help absorb economic surplus and to create surplus value.
    Keywords: data envelopment analysis, Marxian economics, neoclassical economics, over production, over investment, stagnation thesis, surplus value, under consumption, x-inefficiency
    JEL: B24 B51
    Date: 2014–09–22
  21. By: Jeffrey Chwieroth; Andrew Walter
    Abstract: How have the politics of banking crises changed over the long run? Unlike existing static accounts, we offer a dynamic theory emphasizing how the emergence of voters’ “great expectations” after the 1930s concerning crisis prevention and mitigation reshaped the politics of banking crises in many democratic countries. We argue that both variations over time, centred on the emergence of these expectations, and variations within democratic countries, based on how veto players constrain policy change, exerted an important influence on the propensity of voters to punish incumbent political parties in the aftermath of banking crises. We find strong support for our argument using a new dataset of 100 democratic countries from 1831 – 2011. Political punishment in the aftermath of a banking crisis is mainly a modern phenomenon and is most evident in systems with polarized veto players.
    Keywords: Sovereign Default; Debt Crises; Political Survival; Networks; Voter Behavior.
    JEL: R21
    Date: 2015–01–08
  22. By: Maria Waldinger
    Abstract: Recent studies have consistently found important economic effects of year-to-year weather fluctuations. This paper studies the economic effects of long-term and gradual climate change, over a period of 250 years, when people have time to adapt. In particular, I study the effects of the Little Ice Age, a historical episode of long-term climate change. Results show significant negative economic effects of long-term climate change. Cities with good access to trade were substantially less affected. Results from yearly historical wheat prices and yield ratios show that temperature change impacted economic growth through its effect on agricultural productivity. Further evidence shows a lack of adaptation. I show evidence of the relevance of these results to the context of contemporary developing countries and recommend ways in which these findings may improve Integrated Assessment Models.
    Date: 2015–10
  23. By: Ron W Nielsen
    Abstract: Economic growth in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, countries of the former USSR, Africa and Latin America were analysed. It is demonstrated that the fundamental postulate of the Unified Growth Theory about the existence of the three regimes of growth (Malthusian regime, post-Malthusian regime and sustained-growth regime) is contradicted by data. These regimes did not exist. In particular, there was no escape from the Malthusian trap because there was no trap. Economic growth in all these regions was not stagnant but hyperbolic. Unified Growth Theory is fundamentally incorrect. However, this theory is also dangerously misleading because it claims a transition from the endless epoch of stagnation to the new era of sustained economic growth, the interpretation creating the sense of security and a promise of prosperity. The data show that the opposite is true. Economic growth in the past was sustained and secure. Now, it is supported by the increasing ecological deficit. The long-term sustained and secure economic growth has yet to be created. It did not happen automatically, as suggested incorrectly by the Unified Growth Theory.
    Date: 2016–02
  24. By: Becker, Sascha O. (University of Warwick); Pfaff, Steven (University of Washington); Rubin, Jared (Chapman University)
    Abstract: The Protestant Reformation is one of the defining events of the last millennium. Nearly 500 years after the Reformation, its causes and consequences have seen a renewed interest in the social sciences. Research in economics, sociology, and political science increasingly uses detailed individual-level, city-level, and regional-level data to identify drivers of the adoption of the Reformation, its diffusion pattern, and its socioeconomic consequences. This survey takes stock of the research so far, tries to point out what we know and what we do not know, and which are the most promising areas for future research.
    Keywords: Protestant Reformation JEL Classification: N33, Z12, R38, D85
    Date: 2016
  25. By: Claude Diebolt
    Abstract: Le 22 septembre 1875, l’unification monétaire de l’Allemagne est décrétée. À partir du 1er janvier 1876, le système monétaire entre en vigueur sur l’ensemble du territoire. La réforme bancaire érige la banque de Prusse en banque centrale de l’Empire avec la nouvelle appellation de Reichsbank chargée de fournir des crédits au gouvernement impérial et de mener une politique active du taux de l’escompte.
    Keywords: Cliometrics, Reichsbank.
    JEL: N13 N23
    Date: 2016
  26. By: Antonio M. Linares-Luján (Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain); Francisco M. Parejo-Moruno (Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain)
    Abstract: Pese a la importancia concedida por la historiografía antropométrica española a la incidencia de la mortalidad sobre la talla alcanzada al final de la etapa de crecimiento físico, las monografías realizadas hasta ahora en España para conocer la evolución del nivel de vida a través de la estatura adulta, basadas mayoritariamente en las Actas de Reclutamiento y Reemplazo, no contemplan la distorsión que introduce en las series antropométricas construidas a partir de ellas la mayor o menor probabilidad de muerte durante la infancia y la juventud. Obviamente, sin embargo, la estatura media de una generación que sufre altas tasas de mortalidad antes de llegar a la edad adulta está sesgada al alza como consecuencia de la mayor incidencia de la enfermedad sobre la población físicamente más débil y, por tanto, no puede ser comparada, sin más, con la alcanzada por una generación que llega prácticamente intacta a la madurez. La presente investigación pretende corregir, en parte, esta incongruencia estudiando el caso extremeño y recurriendo al uso de una fuente nunca antes utilizada: la relación de nacidos y fallecidos que, desde principios del siglo XX, al menos para muchos pueblos de Extremadura, elaboraron cada año los juzgados y/o las parroquias para proceder a los llamamientos previstos en la legislación militar española. La singularidad de esta fuente, generalmente incluida en las propias Actas de Reclutamiento y Reemplazo, reside en la posibilidad de calcular a partir de ella una medida alternativa de esperanza de vida para la población recluta: la proporción de mozos vivos a la edad legal de alistamiento sobre el total de niños nacidos en cada generación. La exigüidad que muestra este indicador en Extremadura, con cifras por debajo del 80 por 100 hasta bien entrada la pasada centuria, no invalida en absoluto la potencia explicativa de la estatura adulta como medida de nivel de vida, pero sí previene de la sensibilidad que muestran las series de talla extraídas de las fuentes de reclutamiento militar ante determinadas circunstancias, como la enfermedad, la pobreza, la insalubridad, la desnutrición e, incluso, la emigración. Metodológicamente hablando, además, esta medida alternativa de sobrevivencia aporta una nueva y poderosa herramienta para resolver las dudas que todavía hoy suscita dentro de la historiografía antropométrica española la fecha de referencia sobre la que gravita la interpretación de las tendencias mostradas por la estatura a lo largo de los siglos XIX y XX.
    Keywords: Palabras clave: Extremadura, estatura, sobrevivencia, nivel de vida, esperanza de vida, salud, mortalidad infantil y juvenil.
    JEL: O12 O15 Q18 Z13
    Date: 2015–06
  27. By: Francisco Comín Comín (Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, Spain)
    Abstract: Este documento de trabajo proporciona un análisis de los objetivos buscados con las emisiones de deuda finalista durante el franquismo, la estructura de la deuda en circulación y la sostenibilidad de la deuda. Como era más barata, se abusó de la deuda flotante que luego se consolidó. La represión financiera permitió a Franco pagar bajos intereses nominales, que fueron negativos por la fuerte inflación al principio y el final del régimen. El artículo concluye que los gobiernos de Franco emitieron la mayor parte de su deuda para financiar inversiones al margen del presupuesto, cuyos déficits fueron muy inferiores a las deudas emitidas. La pobreza de la Hacienda obligó a Franco a pagar su política de nacionalizaciones y de industrialización con deuda pública, tanto en la autarquía como con los planes de desarrollo. La falta de recursos impidió a Franco devolver sus deudas; la deuda pública fue aniquilada por el impuesto inflacionista y la represión financiera. Esto, junto al crecimiento económico, hizo que la deuda soberana fuera sostenible en el franquismo.
    Keywords: Palabras clave: deuda pública, impago, restructuración, impuesto inflacionista, represión financiera; política fiscal.
    JEL: E31 E4 E6 F3 F4 H6 N10 N23 N43 H63 F34
    Date: 2014–11
  28. By: Carlsson , Bo (Case Western Reserve University, Weatherhead School of Management, Department of Economics, Cleveland and CIRCLE, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper reviews the literature in the field of Industrial Dynamics as it has emerged since I first introduced the term in 1985. Nearly 8,000 articles in 12 major journals have been reviewed and classified under five broad themes that constitute the basic questions in industrial dynamics: 1. The causes of industrial development and economic growth, including the dynamics and evolution of industries and the role of entrepreneurship 2. The nature of economic activity in the firm and the dynamics of supply, particularly the role of knowledge. 3. How the boundaries and interdependence of firms change over time and contribute to economic transformation. 4. Technological change and its institutional framework, especially systems of innovation. 5. The role of public policy in facilitating adjustment of the economy to changing circumstances at both micro and macro levels. Under each theme, the main findings and their implications for theory and policy are summarized.
    Keywords: industrial dynamics; literature review; knowledge; technological change; institutions; growth
    JEL: D00 D20 L00 O30
    Date: 2016–01–18
  29. By: Jake Anders; Richard Dorsett
    Abstract: This paper examines how young people’s early transitions into the labour market have changed between cohorts born in 1958, 1970, 1980, and 1990. We use sequence analysis to characterise transition patterns and identify three distinct pathways in all cohorts. An ‘Entering the Labour Market’ group has declined significantly in size (from 91% in the earliest cohort, to 37% in the most recent), an ‘Accumulating Human Capital’ group has grown in its place (from 4% to 51%), but also a ‘Potential Cause for Concern’ group has grown alongside this, reaching 12% in the most recent cohort. These trends appear to reflect behavioural rather than compositional changes. Females and those who are from a non-white ethnic background have gone from being more likely to be in the ‘Potential Cause for Concern’ group, to being less likely. Coming from a low socio-economic status background has remained a strong predictor of having a transition of this type across all four cohorts. These early transitions are important, not least since we show they are highly predictive of longer-term outcomes.
    Date: 2015–08
  30. By: Cédric Poivret (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12)
    Abstract: Dans cette communication, nous proposons une synthèse des recherches menées depuis maintenant trente-cinq années sur l " enseignement commercial au XIXième siècle, période marquée par la révolution industrielle et de manière concomitante par une révolution de l " enseignement. Au sein de ce travail, nous nous intéresserons au contenu des enseignements, ainsi qu " aux discour(s) visant à légitimer ces derniers, et verrons dans quelle mesure les diverses institutions de l " enseignement commercial au XIXième siècle ont pu aider au développement des « savoirs explicités à destinations des gestionnaires ». Abstract
    Keywords: Enseignement commercial au XIXième siècle
    Date: 2015–03–19

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