nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2015‒08‒30
thirty-six papers chosen by

  1. Banks and the World's Major Banking Centers, 2010 By Choi, Sang Rim; Park, Daekeun; Tschoegl, Adrian E.
  2. Comptabilité marchande et crédit au XVIIIe siècle : étude d'une relation d'affaires de la maison nantaise Chaurand frères By Yannick Lemarchand
  3. Famine in Ireland, 1300-1900 By Cormac Ó Gráda
  4. Ready for Revolution? The English Economy before 1800 By Morgan Kelly; Cormac Ó Gráda
  5. Taxes and Budget Information in Early Modern Russia: The Poll Tax in the City and the Village of the Xviii Century By Korchmina, Elena; Lavrinovich, Maya; Fedyukin, Igor
  6. Monks, Gents and Industrialists: The Long-Run Impact of the Dissolution of the English Monasteries By Leander Heldring; James A. Robinson; Sebastian Vollmer
  7. F. A. Hayek and the economic calculus By Bruce Caldwell
  8. Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy in the 1980s: a View Perceived from Archived and Other Materials By Masanao Itoh; Ryoji Koike; Masato Shizume
  9. Media, Markets and Institutional Change: Evidence from the Protestant Reformation By Jeremiah Dittmar; Skipper Seabold
  10. The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part I: Financial crises By Bjarni G. Einarsson; Kristófer Gunnlaugsson; Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson; Thórarinn G. Pétursson
  11. Sea Change: The Competing Long-Run Impacts of the Transatlantic Slave Trade and Missionary Activity in Africa By Okoye, Dozie; Pongou, Roland
  12. Political-Security, Economy, and Culture within the Dynamics of Geopolitics and Migration: On Philippine Territory and the Filipino People By John X. LAMBINO
  13. New Media, Competition and Growth: European Cities After Gutenberg By Jeremiah Dittmar
  14. La fuite managériale devant la complexité : l'exemple historique du "lean management" By Philippe Lorino
  15. The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future By James D. Hamilton; Ethan S. Harris; Jan Hatzius; Kenneth D. West
  16. Back to Gold: Sterling in 1925 By Gerlach, Stefan; Kugler, Peter
  17. Credit, Indebtedness, and Speculation in the Marxian Paradigm: A Reassessment By Ramirez, Miguel D.
  18. Quarterly Series for the Portuguese Economy: 1977-2014 By Fátima Cardoso; Ana Sequeira
  19. People and Machines: A Look at the Evolving Relationship Between Capital and Skill In Manufacturing 1860-1930 Using Immigration Shocks By Jeanne Lafortune; José Tessada; Ethan Lewis
  20. The Dissemination of Management Innovations through Consultancy in the Postwar Period By Ćwiklicki, Marek; Alcouffe, Alain
  21. Andamento demografico e sviluppo economico in provincia di Ferrara: una verifica empirica della relazione per alcuni periodi storici By Aurelio Bruzzo
  22. Une approche historique du développement comparé : Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson (AJR) et Jared Diamond sont-ils complémentaires ? By Pierre MANDON
  23. Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England By Stéphane Auray; Aurélien Eyquem; Frédéric Jouneau-Sion
  24. ‘Cast back into the Dark Ages of Medicine’? The Challenge of Antimicrobial Resistance By Cormac Ó Gráda
  25. Social Cohesion and Economic Growth: Small States vs Large States By BRITO, JOÃO ANTONIO
  26. Nonprofit Roles in For-profit Firms: The Institutionalization of Corporate Philanthropy in France By Arthur Gautier; Anne-Claire Pache; Imran Chowdhury
  27. A revision of the US business-cycles chronology 1790-1928 By Amélie Charles; Olivier Darné; Claude Diebolt
  28. The long shadows of past insults intergenerational transmission of health over 130 years By Andreella, Claudia; Karlsson, Martin; Nilsson, Therese; Westphal, Matthias
  29. Innovation, Absorptive Capacity and Growth Heterogeneity: Development Paths in Latin America 1970–2010 By Fulvio Castellacci; Jose Miguel Natera
  30. The Economic Costs of Mass Surveillance: Insights from Stasi Spying in East Germany By Lichter, Andreas; Loeffler, Max; Siegloch, Sebastian
  31. The U.S. Listing Gap By Doidge, Craig; Karolyi, George Andrew; Stulz, Rene M.
  32. Directed Technical Change and Capital Deepening: A Reconsideration of Kaldor’s Technical Progress Function By Schlicht, Ekkehart
  33. France et Allemagne : une histoire du désajustement européen By Xavier Ragot; Mathilde Le Moigne
  34. The second generation of ecological economics: How far has the apple fallen from the tree? By Gaël Plumecocq
  35. Beauty as a factor of economic and social development By Baggio, Rodolfo; Moretti, Vincenzo
  36. Beautiful Minds: The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics By Ghosh, Saibal

  1. By: Choi, Sang Rim (Hanyang University); Park, Daekeun (Hanyang University); Tschoegl, Adrian E. (University of PA)
    Abstract: We update three earlier articles on the determinants of interpenetration of financial centers by banks by adding the year 2010 to our analyses for 1970 and 1980, 1990, and 2000. In addition, we also re-estimate our model to include data for Beijing/Shanghai, and add those emerging centers for 2010. First, the number of banks in our data and the number of their offices in other centers has fallen by 46% and 24% since peaking in 1990. Second, even so our matrix saw less turbulence than in the prior two decades as density and number of presences in other centers per bank increased. Third, London had regained the first place from New York. Tokyo remains in fifth place after Hong Kong and Singapore. Once one includes Beijing/Shanghai, the Chinese centers now rank first and Tokyo sixth. Fourth, Paris and Frankfurt/Hamburg have regained some centrality. Fifth, our gravity model approach continues to model the data well, with distance between centers continuing to depress interpenetration between centers as it did in 2000. Lastly, the primary effect of introducing Beijing/Shanghai as a center has increased the importance of interpenetration as banks from Beijing and Shanghai are going to centers from which banks are coming to Beijing and Shanghai.
    Date: 2014–10
  2. By: Yannick Lemarchand (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes)
    Abstract: L’analyse d’une relation d’affaires, de plus d’une dizaine d’années, entre deux grandes maisons de négoce de Nantes et de Bordeaux, à partir du compte courant ouvert à la seconde par la première, permet d’appréhender de manière approfondie le rôle joué par la comptabilité dans les pratiques du crédit marchand et dans l’articulation monnaie scripturale – monnaie fiduciaire. La comptabilité est l’un des artefacts essentiels à la mise œuvre du crédit. Inscription du crédit et moyen de preuve de son existence, elle est aussi instrument de crédit et moyen de paiement. Le compte courant ouvert à un partenaire rend compte de façon continue du crédit accordé à (ou par) ce partenaire et des compensations qui s’opèrent au fur et à mesure des livraisons réciproques. Il est de ce fait le siège du règlement scriptural, le jeu d’écritures réalisant le paiement d’une dette par une créance. Mais la comptabilité permet aussi d’assurer le suivi des titres de crédit émis ou reçus : la monnaie fiduciaire ; le tout en liaison avec les diverses opérations réalisées. Cette étude micro-historique en livre une illustration qui, au-delà des caractéristiques propres à cette relation — nature et rythmes des échanges et donc du crédit —, conduit à des observations de portée plus générale relativement au crédit marchand. Elle met également en lumière le rôle de la comptabilité dans la construction et la pérennisation de la relation de crédit : l’artefact comptable n’est pas que le témoin passif de cette relation, il en est acteur par le biais des rituels de redditions de comptes. Née de la pratique du crédit marchand, la comptabilité a directement participé à son expansion.
    Date: 2015–02–13
  3. By: Cormac Ó Gráda
    Abstract: This paper describes the history of famine in Ireland between c. 1300 and c. 1900. Inevitably, most of its focus is on the two ‘great’ famines of the early 1740s and 1846-52.
    Keywords: Famine; Economic history; Ireland
    JEL: N N5 O1
    Date: 2015–05
  4. By: Morgan Kelly; Cormac Ó Gráda
    Abstract: Sustained economic growth in England can be traced back to the early seventeenth century. That earlier growth, albeit modest, both generated and was sustained by a demographic regime that entailed relatively high wages, and by an increasing endowment of human capital in the form of a relatively adaptable and skilled labour force. Healthier and savvier English workers were better equipped to profit from the technological possibilities available to them, and to build on them. Technological change and economic growth stemmed from such human capital rather than Boserupian forces. They were the product of England’s resource endowment and its institutions.
    Keywords: Economic history; Industrial revolution
    Date: 2014–11
  5. By: Korchmina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), National Research University Higher School of Economics); Lavrinovich, Maya (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Fedyukin, Igor (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes legal norms and administrative practices typical for collecting the poll tax that was established in Russia by Peter I and formed the basis of state income during the eighteenth century. The research, based on various archival collections, compares the work of state apparatus in Russia’s countryside and cities.
    Date: 2015–07
  6. By: Leander Heldring; James A. Robinson; Sebastian Vollmer
    Abstract: We examine the long-run economic impact of the Dissolution of the English monasteries in 1535, which is plausibly linked to the commercialization of agriculture and the location of the Industrial Revolution. Using monastic income at the parish level as our explanatory variable, we show that parishes which the Dissolution impacted more had more textile mills and employed a greater share of population outside agriculture, had more gentry and agricultural patent holders, and were more likely to be enclosed. Our results extend Tawney’s famous ‘rise of the gentry’ thesis by linking social change to the Industrial Revolution.
    JEL: N43 N63 N93 O14 Q15
    Date: 2015–08
  7. By: Bruce Caldwell
    Abstract: The paper offers a revisionist account of certain episodes in the development of F. A. Hayek's thought. It offers a new reading of his 1937 paper, "Economics and Knowledge," that draws on unpublished lecture notes in which he articulated more fully the distinctions he made in the paper between a "pure logic of choice," or the economic calculus, and an "empirical element," which he would later call the competitive market order. Next, the paper shows that Hayek continued to try to develop his ideas about the role of the economic calculus through the 1950s and early 1960s, an effort that has been missed because it never led to any published work. Finally, the paper examines Hayek's attempt to articulate a theory of the market process, one that would be at the same level of generality as the economic calculus, in lectures he gave at the University of Virginia. He never developed a full-fledged formal theory, but his failed efforts still bore fruit in leading him to his contributions on spontaneous orders and the (verbal) theory of complex phenomena. This work anticipated contributions by others who were more technically trained.
    Keywords: F. A. Hayek; the economic calculus; market process; the pure logic of choice; the structure of economic theory; spontaneous orders
    JEL: B25 B31 B53
    Date: 2015
  8. By: Masanao Itoh (Professor, Otsuma Women's University and IMES, Bank of Japan (E-mail:; Ryoji Koike (Director and Deputy Head of Monetary History Studies Group, IMES, Bank of Japan (E-mail:; Masato Shizume (Professor, Waseda University and IMES, Bank of Japan (E-mail:
    Abstract: This monographic paper summarizes views held by the Bank of Japan (hereafter BOJ or the Bank) in the 1980s regarding economic conditions and monetary policy formulation, perceived from the BOJ archives and other materials from the period. From a historical viewpoint, the authors see the 1980s as a watershed time for the Bank's policy formulation, because the Bank acquired lessons for monetary policy formulation under a large fluctuation in economic and financial conditions and innovated new approaches for monetary policy formulation and money market management as stated below. First, during the 1980s the BOJ had to largely consider the external imbalance in formulating policy, and attention began to shift towards price stability in the medium or long term by the end of the decade. Second, the large fluctuations in asset prices, money supply, and commercial bank lending were closely monitored during this period, but the Bank's assessment about their impacts on macroeconomic consequences in the medium to long term was insufficient. A reflection of these lessons appears to evolve into a perspective on the Bank's monetary policy formulation that financial imbalances should be examined as a risk for achieving price stability in the medium to long term. Third, in light of ongoing financial deregulation during this period, the Bank started to change monetary policy measures from those based on a regulated interest rate framework to those based on market operation with good use of money markets and flexible interest rates.
    Keywords: Monetary policy management, Price stability in the medium and long term, Financial imbalance, External imbalance, Financial deregulation
    JEL: E52 N15
    Date: 2015–08
  9. By: Jeremiah Dittmar; Skipper Seabold
    Abstract: This research studies the role of competition in the diffusion of radical ideas and institutional change during the Protestant Reformation. We construct a new measure of religious content in the media using data on all known books and pamphlets printed in German-speaking Europe 1454-1600. We find that Protestant content was produced in greater quantity in local media markets with more competing firms when Martin Luther circulated his initial arguments for reform in 1517. We find that competition mattered differentially more for the diffusion of Protestant ideas and for institutional change where city governments had the least legal autonomy from feudal lords. We document the relationship between competition and diffusion directly and using the deaths of printers to isolate plausibly exogenous variation in competition. We show that cities where initial competition was greater, and which were more exposed to Protestant ideas, were more likely to adopt the legal institutions of the Reformation.
    Keywords: competition, firms, media, technology, institutions, religion, politics, high-dimensional data
    JEL: D02 O3 N33 N94 P48 Z12 L82
    Date: 2015–08
  10. By: Bjarni G. Einarsson; Kristófer Gunnlaugsson; Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson; Thórarinn G. Pétursson
    Abstract: Iceland suffered a severe financial crisis in 2008 which can only be described as the perfect storm, with the currency falling by more than 50% and over 90% of the domestic financial system collapsing. What followed was a deep recession. This was not the first financial crisis experienced in Iceland, however. In fact, over a period spanning almost one and a half century (1875-2013), we identify over twenty instances of financial crises of different types. Recognising that crises tend to come in clusters, we identify six serious multiple financial crisis episodes occurring every fifteen years on average. These episodes seem to share many commonalities and the tragic but universal truth that “we’ve been there before” when it comes to financial crises really becomes all too clear. We find that these episodes usually involve a large collapse in domestic demand that in most cases serves as a trigger for theensuing crisis. What typically follows is a currency crisis, sometimes coinciding with a sudden stop of capital inflows and an inflation crisis, and most often a banking crisis. In line with international evidence, we find that contractions coinciding with these large financial crises tend to be both deeper and longer than regular business cycle downturns. Although the crisis episodes share many common elements, each one of them is also different to some extent. We are therefore not able to find financial variables that consistently provide an early-warning signal of an upcoming financial crisis across all the six episodes. However, we find that some key macroeconomic variables give a somewhat more robust signal. Our results also suggest that five of the six multiple crisis episodes coincide with a global financial crisis of some type, and that the most serious global episodes coincide with a twoto threefold increase in the probability of a financial crisis in Iceland. A companion paper (Part II) extends our analysis of the Icelandic financial boom-bust cycle to identifying financial cycles in our long data set, i.e. cycles that are of lower frequency and last longer than common business cycles and are characterised by co-movement of many key financial variables and often have peaks closely associated with financial crises.
    Date: 2015–08
  11. By: Okoye, Dozie; Pongou, Roland
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the debate on the effect of European contact on African societies by comparing the long-run economic impacts of the transatlantic slave trade and historical missionary activity. Recognizing that early missionary activity in Africa was unintentionally aided by the preceding slave trade, it proposes an analytical framework in which the effect of the slave trade was partially mediated by missions. Using unique data from Nigeria, we analyze the causal effects of these shocks on schooling attainment, and consequent effects on literacy rates and self-employment. We �find a total negative effect of the transatlantic slave trade on schooling; its negative direct effect outweighs its positive indirect effect through missionary activity. Missionary activity, on the other hand, has a strong positive direct effect which outweighs the total negative effect of the slave trade. Furthermore, individuals whose ancestors were historically exposed to greater missionary activity are more likely to be literate and less likely to be self-employed, consistent with the positive effect of missionary activity on schooling. In contrast, exposure to the slave trade is associated with lower literacy rates and a greater likelihood of being self-employed. Analyzing the mechanisms, we provide evidence suggesting that the persistent effects of these historical shocks are due to intergenerational factors and higher schooling infrastructure in areas that were less exposed to the slave trade or more exposed to missionary activity. Consistent with a simple theory, these persistent effects are larger for women, younger cohorts, rural residents, and migrants. Religion does not appear to be especially important, and the �findings rule out an explanation based on simple changes in tastes for schooling.
    Keywords: European contact, Africa, Slave Trade, Missions, Development, Education, Nigeria
    JEL: I20 N30 N37 N47 O10 O15 Z12
    Date: 2015–08–10
  12. By: John X. LAMBINO
    Abstract: The paper considers the interaction of the dual elements of the nation-state: territory and people. Particularly, it discusses the interaction of geopolitics and migration, i.e. the non-mobile territory and the mobile people, from the perspectives of political-security, economy, and culture, and how the interactions influence government policy focusing on the case of the Philippines.The paper ferrets-out the major factors in the geopolitical transformation of the Philippine Is-lands into the westernmost frontier of the United States, and how this geopolitical transformation created a migratory linkage from the Philippine Islands to the United States. The paper shows how migratory movements shaped the geopolitics of East Asia or Western Pacific before World War II by pointing out the following. One: The westward expansion of the American people ini-tially changed the geopolitical conditions in the American continent, and eventually changed the geopolitical make-up in the Western Pacific. Two: The migration of Filipinos to the United States was a key factor in the granting of Philippine independence, thereby reshaping the geopo-litical conditions in the Western Pacific region.The paper shows that the geopolitical transformation of the Philippine Islands came with the im-plantation of American culture and English language. The paper discusses how this cultural as-pect has functioned in terms of a migratory linkage by looking at the current migratory pattern of Filipinos. The paper then shows how the economic agreement the Philippines signed with the United States in 1946 to attain independence eventually led to the establishment of a migratory system as the Philippine government adopted of a labor export policy in the 1970s. The paper further shows the importance of remittances from overseas Filipinos to the Philippine economy.The paper elaborates and discusses how the political-security policies undertaken by the Philip-pines have been deeply influenced by both its geopolitical circumstance and the current situation of Filipino migration. Finally, the paper points out that the large presence of Filipinos overseas and the country’s dependence to their remittances are a cause of weakness for the Philippine state in maintaining a credible foreign and security policy.
    Keywords: Geopolitics in East Asia; Filipino Migration; Nation-state
    JEL: J61 F51 F52
    Date: 2015–08
  13. By: Jeremiah Dittmar
    Abstract: This research studies how variations in competition and in media content characterized the use and impact of Gutenberg's printing press technology during the European Renaissance. The research constructs annual firm-level panel data on the publications produced by 7,000+ printing firms operating in over 300 European cities 1454-1600. Evidence on the timing of the premature deaths of firm owner-managers is used to isolate shocks to competition. Firms where owner-managers died experienced large negative shocks to output. However, at the city-level deaths of incumbent managers were associated with significant increases in entrance and with a positive and persistent impact on competition and city output. Variations in city supply induced by heterogeneous manager deaths are used to study the relationship between the diffusion of ideas in print and city growth. A uniquely strong relationship is observed between the new business education literature and local growth. This is consistent with historical research on the transformative impact business education ideas had on commercial practices and European capitalism.
    Keywords: Information technology, IO, media, growth, history, business education
    JEL: L1 N13 N33 N93 O11 O18 O33
    Date: 2015–08
  14. By: Philippe Lorino (Accounting / Management Control Department - Essec Business School)
    Abstract: This paper studies the curious odyssey of "Lean Management"... Under this label, managerial ideas and practices have undergone, first a decisive step towards process thinking, and then a striking return to planning and variance control habits. The study of this historical shift can give us clues about obstacles to process thinking in the managerial world. The paper will first recall the key ideas originally highlighted by the pioneers of "lean management", based on the Toyota Production System (TPS), and their distinctly processual orientation. Then it will review the practices today labelled as "Lean Management" and the surprising historical reversal they reveal. Finally it will review some of the potential reasons why such a reversal took place, with a particular focus on the treatment of time and the notions of slack and wasted time.
    Abstract: Ce texte étudie la curieuse odyssée du "Lean Management"... Sous cette appellation, les théories et les pratiques managériales ont connu tout d'abord un virage décisif vers une vision processuelle et dynamique des organisations, puis un retour en arrière frappant vers les visions planificatrices et le contrôle par écarts. L'étude de ce renversement historique peut nous donner des clés de réflexion sur les obstacles à la vision processuelle des organisations dans le monde managérial. Le texte rappelle d'abord les idées clés mises initialement en avant par les pionniers du "lean management", fondées sur le Toyota Production System (TPS), et sur leur orientation clairement processuelle. Puis il analyse les pratiques aujourd'hui désignées comme "Lean Management" et le renversement historique surprenant qu'elles manifestent. Enfin il tentera d'identifier quelques-unes des raisons qui peuvent potentiellement expliquer ce renversement, en insistant particulièrement sur le traitement du temps et les notions de "slack" et de "gaspillage".
    Date: 2014
  15. By: James D. Hamilton; Ethan S. Harris; Jan Hatzius; Kenneth D. West
    Abstract: We examine the behavior, determinants, and implications of the equilibrium level of the real federal funds rate, defined as the rate consistent with full employment and stable inflation in the medium term. We draw three main conclusions. First, the uncertainty around the equilibrium rate is large, and its relationship with trend GDP growth much more tenuous than widely believed. Our narrative and econometric analysis using cross-country data and going back to the 19th Century supports a wide range of plausible central estimates for the current level of the equilibrium rate, from a little over 0% to the pre-crisis consensus of 2%. Second, despite this uncertainty, we are skeptical of the “secular stagnation” view that the equilibrium rate will remain near zero for many years to come. The evidence for secular stagnation before the 2008 crisis is weak, and the disappointing post-2008 recovery is better explained by protracted but ultimately temporary headwinds from the housing supply overhang, household and bank deleveraging, and fiscal retrenchment. Once these headwinds had abated by early 2014, US growth did in fact accelerate to a pace well above potential. Third, the uncertainty around the equilibrium rate implies that a monetary policy rule with more inertia than implied by standard versions of the Taylor rule could be associated with smaller deviations of output and inflation from the Fed’s objectives. Our simulations using the Fed staff’s FRB/US model show that explicit recognition of this uncertainty results in a later but steeper normalization path for the funds rate compared with the median “dot” in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections.
    JEL: E32 E43 E52
    Date: 2015–08
  16. By: Gerlach, Stefan; Kugler, Peter
    Abstract: Expectations of Sterling returning to Gold have been disregarded in empirical work on the US dollar – Sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s. We incorporate such considerations in a PPP model of the exchange rate, letting the probability of a return to gold follow a logistic function. We draw several conclusions: (i) the PPP model works well from spring 1919 to spring 1925; (ii) wholesale prices outperform consumer prices; (iii) allowing for a return to gold leads to a higher speed of adjustment of the exchange rate to PPP; (iv) interest rate differentials and the relative monetary base are crucial determinants of the expected return to gold; (v) the probability of a return to Gold peaked at about 72% in late 1924 and but fell to about 60% in early 1925; and (vi) our preferred model does not support the Keynes’ view that Sterling was overvalued after the return to gold.
    JEL: E5 F31 N1
    Date: 2015–08
  17. By: Ramirez, Miguel D. (Trinity College)
    Abstract: This paper argues that, in Chapters XXIX and XXX of Volume III of Capital, Marx develops an incisive conceptual framework in which excessive credit creation, indebtedness, and speculation play a critical and growing role in the reproduction of social capital on an extended basis; however, given the decentralized and anarchic nature of capitalist production, it does so in a highly erratic and contradictory manner which only postpones the inevitable day of reckoning. The paper also draws important parallels between Marx's analysis of debt-fuelled crises and the events leading up to the subprime debacle of 2007-08. Finally, the paper contends that had Marx lived to re-write Vols. II and III, he would have explicitly connected the expanding role of credit [which he associated with the development of capitalism] to a significant reduction in the turnover period of capital, thereby boosting the rate of surplus-value, and countering in a highly erratic and contradictory manner, the fall in the rate of profit. The growing role of credit has been ignored in the Marxian literature as an important counteracting factor to the law of the declining rate of profit. It is not mentioned at all by Marx in his famous Chp. XIV, Vol. III of Capital where he discusses other important counteracting forces, nor by Engels [in this particular context] who edited both Vols. II and III.
    JEL: B10 B14 B24
    Date: 2014–07
  18. By: Fátima Cardoso; Ana Sequeira
    Abstract: This article presents quarterly historical series (1977-2014) which are consistent with the latest version of National Accounts published by Statistics Portugal. The information provided covers a wide set of variables and corresponds to the quarterly historical series update, regularly published by Banco de Portugal. It includes data for 2014 and incorporates the revision of the previous data according to ESA 2010. Simultaneously, we describe in detail the methodological procedures applied in the construction of the series, aiming for a greater comparability over time. The series released in this paper are distributed in three blocks: expenditure, disposable income and the labour market.
    JEL: C82 E0
    Date: 2015
  19. By: Jeanne Lafortune; José Tessada; Ethan Lewis
    Abstract: This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between capital and skill using variation across U.S. counties in immigration-induced skill mix changes between 1860 and 1930. We find that capital began as a q-complement for skilled and unskilled workers, and then dramatically increased its relative complementary with skilled workers around 1890. Simulations of a parametric production function calibrated to our estimates imply the level of capital-skill complementarity after 1890 likely allowed the U.S. economy to absorb the large wave of less-skilled immigration with a modest decline in less-skilled relative wages. This would not have been possible under the older production technology.
    JEL: J24 N61 O33
    Date: 2015–07
  20. By: Ćwiklicki, Marek; Alcouffe, Alain
    Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to fulfill and to refine the role of consultancy and professional bodies in dissemination of management innovations in the Inter- and Postwar Period that was in these days scientific management in Europe. The proposition is set upon the case of French consultancies and organizing bodies (i.e. professional societies and associations) and their activities to popularize the scientific management movement with a special reference to the Henry Bernaténé’s output.
    Keywords: business history, dissemination, management innovation, consultancy
    JEL: B2 B3 M1
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Aurelio Bruzzo
    Abstract: Researchers of the various social science involved, including of course Demography, have so far failed to indicate with certainty what is, from the viewpoint of economic theory, the correlation between the trend of in a given geographical area resident population and its socio-economic development. However, the debate on the relationship between population and development is still very relevant, especially from a political perspective, in general, and from they of economic policy, in particular, and this for the simple reason that the size, composition, and the quality level of the population is in any case a decisive factor for the development chances of any region. From what has just been observed, an opportunity emerges for more specifically reconsidering this issue on a territorial scope, constituted by the province of Ferrara, with reference to two periods of more than 10 years, which – being in between the Second World War and the present day – make it possible to reconstruct for this part of Emilia-Romagna some of the important stages of its latest evolution.
    Keywords: Demographic Trend; Economic Development; Locally Relationship
    JEL: J11 O15
    Date: 2015–08–27
  22. By: Pierre MANDON (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)
    Abstract: In this paper we provide empirical evidence of the complementarities between the geographical approach of Diamond (1997) and the institutional approach of Acemoglu et al. (2002) to explain gaps in economic performance worldwide since 11, 000 BC until today. While the biogeographical endowments of Diamond are suitable to explain development paths until 1500 AD, the reversal of fortune of Acemoglu et al. (2002) is able to explain gaps in economic performance since 1500 AD. Those results display the positive impact of institutional framework on economic development, and focus on the complementary of two different fields of literature on long-run development.
    Date: 2015–05–12
  23. By: Stéphane Auray (EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université Lille II - Droit et santé - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies - Université Charles-de-Gaulle Lille 3 - Sciences humaines et sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France, CIRPEE - Universite Laval (Quebec), CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - INSEE - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique); Aurélien Eyquem (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Frédéric Jouneau-Sion (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon)
    Abstract: In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) precipitations (resp. temperatures) enhance productivity. Further, temperatures also have non-linear effects on productivity : large temperature variations lower productivity. We perform counterfactual exercises and quantify the effects of large increases in temperatures on productivity, GDP and welfare.
    Date: 2014
  24. By: Cormac Ó Gráda
    Abstract: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is currently the focus of much media attention and policy discussion. A historical perspective on AMR suggests that although the challenge of AMR is real, the doomsday tone of most commentary is unwarranted. That is partly because most of the gains in life expectancy now deemed under threat preceded the antibiotics revolution. A combination of public health measures, rising living standards, and new medical knowledge all played their part in this. Even if AMR increases, the continuing effect of these factors and of new public health measures can limit the negative consequences. Moreover, recent developments suggest that the supply pipeline of new drugs is not quite as dry as usually claimed. The problem for now is not MRSA or malaria but carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria, which pose an urgent threat and on which public funding for research on effective new therapies should concentrate.
    Keywords: Infectious disease; Health; Antimicrobial resistance; Economic history
    JEL: I N
    Date: 2015–05
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically if the effect of social cohesion on economic growth is conditioned by country size. Two groups of countries, large and small, were set up, and by using the System-GMM estimator and panel data in a 5-year rolling window, from 1970 to 2010, the impact of civil war and ethnic tension on growth rate of GDP per capita of the two groups of states was estimated. Also, the difference between small and large states in terms of the impact of civil war and ethnic tension on β-convergence rate was analyzed. We conclude that the effects of social cohesion (measured by civil war) in economic growth and in β-convergence rate are influenced by country size, and the positive effect is higher in small states.
    Keywords: Country Size, Small States, Social Cohesion and Economic Growth
    JEL: O47 O57
    Date: 2015–07
  26. By: Arthur Gautier (Chaire entrepreneuriat social - Essec Business School); Anne-Claire Pache (Public and Private Policy Department - Essec Business School); Imran Chowdhury (Lubin School of Business - Pace University)
    Abstract: In this research project we aim to understand the role of institutional entrepreneurship across multiple levels - field, organization, and micro levels - in the institutionalization of a new professional role within organizations. Specifically, we study the rise of the "corporate philanthropy manager," a position inspired by nonprofit values and goals which developed within large French corporations during the period 1979 to 2011. The process of creating, maintaining and legitimizing this new role - philanthropy as a new business function - is the central focus of our study, and we explore how elements of the nonprofit and for-profit worlds came together in this new role, as well as the role of various actors across multiple levels in influencing this combination.
    Date: 2013–12–06
  27. By: Amélie Charles (Audencia Recherche - Audencia); Olivier Darné (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes); Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'économie théorique et appliquée - CNRS - Université Nancy II - Université de Strasbourg)
    Abstract: This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US business cycles for the 1790-1928 period using the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constructed by Johnson and Williamson (2008). The resulting chronology alters more than 50% percent of the peaks and troughs identified by the NBER and Davis (2006)'s chronologies, especially during the antebellum period, and removes those cycles long considered the most questionable, as growth or industrial cycles. An important result of the new chronology is the lack of discernible differences in the frequency and duration of US business cycles among the antebellum and postbellum periods. We also find that the average frequency and duration of contractions are less important than those of expansions.
    Date: 2014
  28. By: Andreella, Claudia; Karlsson, Martin; Nilsson, Therese; Westphal, Matthias
    Abstract: This paper investigates the intergenerational transmission of health in the very long run. Using a unique purpose-built administrative dataset on individuals born in Sweden between 1930-34 and their parents, we study the intergenerational transmission (IGT) of health and the impact of previous generations' health shocks on socioeconomic outcomes. Our results provide strong evidence in favour of IGT of health, in particular for males. In contrast to the existing literature that focuses on early life health outcomes, our paper shows that the effect on later-life mortality might be even more relevant. However, the story appears to be complex and multi-faceted: the IGT exhibits an inverted socioeconomic gradient, and the impact on socioeconomic outcomes is often very different from the effect on health.
    Abstract: In diesem Paper wird die Übertragung von Gesundheit zwischen Generationen untersucht, mit Berücksichtigung ihrer möglichen Auswirkungen über den gesamten Lebensverlauf. Im Gegensatz zur bisherigen Literatur, die sich auf die Auswirkungen in den ersten Lebensjahren konzentriert, zeigt dieses Paper, dass die langfristigen Effekte gegebenenfalls noch wichtiger sind. Als Datenbasis dient eine auf diesen Zweck abgestimmte Erhebung administrativer Einträge aus schwedischen Gemeinderegistern bestehend aus den Geburtskohorten 1930-34, die die Kindergeneration bilden. Hiermit analysieren wir die Übertragbarkeit von Gesundheit über zwei Generationen, denn die Daten erlauben es, auch die Elterngeneration zu identifizieren. Um diese Übertragbarkeit von anderen Störgrößen zu isolieren, werden Gesundheitsschocks der Müttergeneration benutzt. Untersucht wird der Einfluss dieser Schocks auf verschiedene Ergebnisgrößen der Kindergeneration: einerseits auf Mortalität und ihre Ursachen über den nahezu gesamten Lebensverlauf, andererseits auf Bildung und das Arbeitsangebot als sozioökonomische Größen. Die Ergebnisse weisen eindeutig nach, dass intergenerationale Übertragbarkeit vorliegt; dies gilt insbesondere und verstärkt für Männer. Allerdings deuten die Resultate auch darauf hin, dass die Übertragungskanäle über sozioökonomische Gruppen hinweg komplex und vielschichtig sind und auch mit Unterschieden im Gesundheits- und Ernährungsverhalten interagieren könnten.
    Keywords: early environment,intergenerational transmission,Barker hypothesis,maternal health,infant health,socioeconomic status
    JEL: I12 J13
    Date: 2015
  29. By: Fulvio Castellacci (TIK Centre, University of Oslo, Norway); Jose Miguel Natera (Universidad Metropolitana, Mexico)
    Abstract: The paper carries out an analysis of long-run development paths in Latin America in the period 1970-2010. We focus on three main dimensions – openness, industrial structure and innovation – and analyze how changes in these factors, and the specific combination of them adopted by each country, have affected its income per capita growth. We apply Johansen cointegration approach to time series data for 18 Latin American countries. The analysis leads to two main results. First, we show that Latin American countries have followed different growth trajectories depending on the combination of policies they have adopted to catch up. Secondly, we find a clear correspondence between policy strategies, on the one hand, and growth performance, on the other. Countries that have managed to combine imitation and innovation policy have experienced a higher rate of growth than those economies that have only made efforts to improve their imitation capability.
    Date: 2015–08
  30. By: Lichter, Andreas (IZA); Loeffler, Max (ZEW Mannheim); Siegloch, Sebastian (University of Mannheim)
    Abstract: Based on official records from the former East German Ministry for State Security, we quantify the long-term costs of state surveillance on social capital and economic performance. Using county-level variation in the spy density in the 1980s, we exploit discontinuities at state borders to show that higher levels of Stasi surveillance led to lower levels of social capital as measured by interpersonal and institutional trust in post-reunification Germany. We estimate the economic costs of spying by applying a second identification strategy that accounts for county fixed effects. We find that a higher spy density caused lower self-employment rates, fewer patents per capita, higher unemployment rates and larger population losses throughout the 1990s and 2000s. Overall, our results suggest that the social and economic costs of state surveillance are large and persistent.
    JEL: H11 N34 N44 P26
    Date: 2015–07
  31. By: Doidge, Craig (University of Toronto); Karolyi, George Andrew (Cornell University); Stulz, Rene M. (OH State University and ECGI, Brussels)
    Abstract: The U.S. had 14% fewer exchange-listed firms in 2012 than in 1975. Relative to other countries, the U.S. now has abnormally few listed firms given its level of development and the quality of its institutions. We call this the "U.S. listing gap" and investigate possible explanations for it. We rule out industry changes, changes in listing requirements, and the reforms of the early 2000s as explanations for the gap. We show that the probability that a firm is listed has fallen since the listing peak in 1996 for all firm size categories though more so for smaller firms. From 1997 to the end of our sample period in 2012, the new list rate is low and the delist rate is high compared to U.S. history and to other countries. High delists account for roughly 46% of the listing gap and low new lists for 54%. The high delist rate is explained by an unusually high rate of acquisitions of publicly-listed firms compared to previous U.S. history and to other countries.
    JEL: G15 G20 G24 G30 G34 G38 O16
    Date: 2015–05
  32. By: Schlicht, Ekkehart
    Abstract: This note proposes a growth model that is derived from the standard Solow growth model by replacing the neoclassical production function with Kaldor’s technical progress function while maintaining a marginalist theory of factor prices in the spirit suggested by von Weizsäcker (1966, 1966b). The hybrid model so obtained accounts for balanced growth in a way that appears less arbitrary than the Solow model, especially because it directly accounts for Harrod neutral technical change, without any need for further assumptions.
    Keywords: directed technical change; directed technological change; bias in innovation; technical progress function; neoclassical production function; Harrod neutrality; Hicks neutrality; Cambridge theory of distribution; marginal productivity theory; Kaldor; Kennedy; von Weizsäcker; Solow model
    JEL: O30 O40 E12 E13 E25 B59 B31
    Date: 2015–06–19
  33. By: Xavier Ragot (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Mathilde Le Moigne (ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris)
    Abstract: La divergence économique entre la France et l’Allemagne depuis 1993 est impressionnante. Alors que les deux pays étaient dans des situations comparables à la fin des années 1990, l’Allemagne est aujourd’hui au voi- sinage du plein emploi - en dépit d’inégalités en hausse - et est un des pays les plus exportateurs du monde. La France connait un chômage his- torique et voit ses performances commerciales se dégrader continûment. Plusieurs explications à cette divergence ont été proposées. Cet article quantifie la contribution particulière de la modération salariale allemande débutant outre-Rhin au milieu des années 1990 sur l’écart de performances économiques franco-allemand. En effet, les salaires allemands sont restés extraordinairement stables après la réunification allemande, et ce essen- tiellement dans les services. À l’aide d’un modèle quantitatif de commerce international, nous trouvons que la modération salariale allemande est res- ponsable de l’ordre de la moitié de l’écart de performances à l’exportation de la France par rapport à l’Allemagne, et explique environ 2% du taux de chômage français. Le problème de l’offre en France est essentiellement l le résultat du désajustement européen
    Date: 2015–06
  34. By: Gaël Plumecocq (AGIR - AGrosystèmes et développement terrItoRial - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UTM - Université Toulouse 2 Le Mirail - École Nationale de Formation Agronomique - ENFA)
    Abstract: This paper examines the discourse produced in the academic journal Ecological Economics from its inception in 1989, and compares this discourse with that of the field of environmental economics. I used methods for discourse analysis (Alceste and Iramuteq) on 6,308 abstracts of papers published in four journals – namely Ecological Economics, the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Environmental Values, and Environmental and Resource Economics, published between 1989 and 2013. The results suggest that the discourse of ecological economics and environmental economics have grown closer over time. The semantic classification of co-occurrent terms used in Ecological Economics indicates increasing significance of the notions of ecosystem services and of monetary valuation. I argue that this trend is parallel to Costanza’s career-path, which suggests the rise of a tacit recognition of the New Environmental Pragmatic scientific approach. I conclude with some of the implications for EE of promoting this kind of discourse to such an extent.
    Date: 2014
  35. By: Baggio, Rodolfo; Moretti, Vincenzo
    Abstract: We discuss here how beauty can be considered a determinant for economic and social growth and what is its importance. We do this by following a line which links beauty with creativity and innovation; commonly reputed the main engines of development, especially in a globalized and highly technological and competitive world, in which many traditional differences in terms of space, time, size, and economic power have dramatically changed.
    Keywords: innovation, creativity, beauty, economic and social growth, work well done
    JEL: O1 O3 O44
    Date: 2015–08–19
  36. By: Ghosh, Saibal
    Abstract: This is the time of the year when the decisions relating to the Nobel memorial prize in economics are announced. The study lists the earlier recipients and highlights certain interesting facets that could act as a guide for selecting potential recipients.
    Keywords: Nobel prize; Economics; Microeconomics; Macroeconomics
    JEL: A10 B31
    Date: 2014

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.