nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2015‒06‒13
twenty-six papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Philip II against the Cortes and the credit freeze of 1575-1577 By Álvarez Nogal, Carlos; Chamley, Christophe
  2. Demographic change in the Asian Century : Implications for Australia and the Region By Peter McDonald
  3. The Chinese in Colonial Rabaul: An Informal History By John D. Conroy
  4. Back to 1820? Spatial distribution of GDP and CO2 Emissions By Caspar Sauter; Jean-Marie Grether; Nicole A. Mathys
  5. "Colonial New Jersey’s Provincial Fiscal Structure, 1709-1775: Spending Obligations, Revenue Sources, and Tax Burdens in War and in Peace" By Farley Grubb
  6. “Impending ruin†or “remarkable wealth� The role of private credit markets in a settler colony By Christie Swanepoel and Johan Fourie
  7. "Phantom of the opera" or "sex and the city"? Historical amenities as sources of exogenous variation By Bauer, Thomas K.; Breidenbach, Philipp; Schmidt, Christoph M.
  8. Changing Income Inequality and Structural Transformation The Case of Botswana 1921-2010 By Ellen Hillbom; Jutta Bolt
  9. Informality and Ôthe Idea of the TownÕ in Hubert MurrayÕs Papua By John D. Conroy
  10. Built to Become--HP's History of Becoming--1939-2015: An Integral Process Overview By Burgelman, Robert A.
  11. Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures Ten Years Later By Geetesh Bhardwaj; Gary Gorton; Geert Rouwenhorst
  12. Sample-selection biases and the “industrialization puzzle” By Howard Bodenhorn; Timothy W. Guinnane; Thomas A. Mroz
  13. Again on the relevance of reverse capital deepening and reswitching By Ariel Dvoskin; Fabio Petri
  14. Four Centuries of Return Predictability By Golez, Benjamin; Koudijs, Peter
  15. Early Childhood Education by MOOC: Lessons from Sesame Street By Melissa S. Kearney; Phillip B. Levine
  16. Bridging Gender Gaps? The Rise and Deceleration of Female Labor Force Participation in Latin America: An overview. By Leonardo Gasparini; Mariana Marchionni
  17. Knowledge Diffusion and Industry Growth: The Case of Japanfs Early Cotton Spinning Industry By Serguey Braguinsky
  18. A spectre has haunted the west: did socialism discipline income inequality? By Albuquerque Sant'Anna, André
  19. Evolución del papel de la naturaleza en el estudio económico: desde los autores preclásicos hasta la Escuela Neoclásica By Juan Fernando Arango Sánchez
  20. Going for the Juglar: Keynes, Schumpeter and the Theoretical Crisis of Economics By Freema, Alan
  21. Estudiando economía después de Pikkety By Guillermo Maya Muñoz
  22. El auge económico antioqueño del siglo XIX desde un enfoque de desarrollo económico local By Javier Mejía Cubillos
  23. Participación laboral según la edad y duración en el mercado laboral de la población. Colombia 1951 - 2005. By Ramón Enrique Vásquez Ramírez
  24. Personal Subsidiary Farms of Russian Peasants in the 1960s - 1990s: From the Standpoint of Peasant Studies By Babashkin, Vladimir
  25. Do Nobel laureates change their patterns of collaboration following prize reception? By Ho Fai Chan; Ali Sina Önder; Benno Torgler
  26. Immigration and educational spillovers: evidence from Sudeten German expellees in post-war Bavaria By Semrad, Alexandra

  1. By: Álvarez Nogal, Carlos; Chamley, Christophe
    Abstract: Numerous archival documents show how the 1575-1577 payment stop on the contracts with Genoese bankers (asientos) induced a freeze of the domestic credit market through the bankers' intermediation for asientos and credit linkages. Commercial fairs stopped, banks failed and trade suffered while the King granted legal protection to the Genoese bankers. The evidence strikingly confirms that the strategy of Philip II was not directed against the bankers but against the cities that were represented in the Cortes. He forced them to increase their fiscal commitment that funded the domestic debt (juros) into which asientos could be converted. The payment stop lasted until the cities agreed to the doubling of their commitment.
    Keywords: debt funding , sovereign loan defaults , financial crises , commercial credit markets , war of attribution
    JEL: N23 N43 H63 F34
    Date: 2015–06
  2. By: Peter McDonald (The Australian National University)
    Abstract: From the demographic perspective, the 21st century is the population ageing century. Population ageing is well underway in all Asian countries as a result of the spectacular falls in both fertility and mortality rates in the second half of the 20th century.
    Keywords: Demographic Trends, Asian Century, Intergenerational Policy
    JEL: J11 J14 J18
    Date: 2015–04
  3. By: John D. Conroy (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with the economic history of immigrant Chinese in colonial Rabaul and its hinterland (in German, later Australian, New Guinea) over almost a century to the Independence of Papua New Guinea in 1975. It is a companion piece to another study concerned with how Tolai people of the hinterland accommodated themselves to the colonial market economy (Conroy, forthcoming). Without pretension to novelty in the historical narrative it asserts the value of viewing events through the lens of 'informal economy', as constructed by Keith Hart. The Chinese are shown as operating an informal economy parallel to, and inter-penetrating, the formal colonial market economy. That formal economy conformed with norms of Weberian 'rational-legal' bureaucracy, guided (in the case of the Wilhelmine state) by an ideology of 'national-economic purpose'. Under Australian administration, and after the Pacific War, the prevalent intellectual model became one of 'economic development'. Under both administrations, however, Chinese demonstrated to the Tolai that it was possible to participate in the market economy without complying fully with bureaucratic norms. The Germans found it difficult to confine Chinese to dependent and subordinate roles, and Chinese often colluded with Tolai to frustrate German (and, later, Australian) efforts to regulate economic activity to their own advantage. The paper describes the growth and increasing formalization of Chinese business in Rabaul, while noting a continuing strain of informality in their economic activity right up until Independence. It suggests that knowledge of the history of the early colonial-period Chinese may be useful for understanding the character and trajectory of 'new' Chinese settlement in Papua New Guinea in the twenty-first century.
    JEL: F54 J15 N97 O15 O17 Z13
    Date: 2014–06
  4. By: Caspar Sauter (Institute of economic research IRENE, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland); Jean-Marie Grether (Institute of economic research IRENE, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland); Nicole A. Mathys (Federal Office for Spatial Development, Berne, Switzerland)
    Abstract: We construct the world's centers of gravity for human population, GDP and CO2 emissions by taking the best out of five recognized data sources covering the last two centuries. We also propose a more appropriate two-map representation of the location of the center of gravity, which abstracts from the usual distortions affecting the projection of a point within a three-dimensional sphere on a two-dimensional map. This allows for a more accurate interpretation of the underlying trends. We find a radical Western shift of GDP and CO2 emissions centers during the 19th century, in sharp contrast with the stability of the demographic center of gravity. Both GDP and emissions trends are reversed in the first half of the 20th century, after World War I for CO2 emissions, and after World War II for GDP. Since then, both centers are moving eastward at an accelerating speed. These patterns are consistent with the initial lead of Western countries starting the industrial revolution and the adoption of fossil fuels as its main energy source, the impact of world con flicts, the gradual replacement of coal by oil and gas, and the progressive catch up of Asian countries, leading to a convergence in terms of both GDP and CO2 emissions per capita in the recent past.
    Keywords: center of gravity, growth, CO2 emissions, gdp, population, convergence
    JEL: Q56 Q59
    Date: 2015–05
  5. By: Farley Grubb (Department of Economics, University of Delaware)
    Abstract: The spending obligations and revenue sources of colonial New Jersey's provincial government for the years 1704 through 1775 are reconstituted using forensic accounting techniques from primary sources. Such has not been done previously for any British North American colony. These data are used to assess colonial New Jersey's provincial fiscal structure. The methods for raising revenue to meet normal peacetime and emergency wartime expenses are identified and analyzed. The provincial tax burdens imposed on New Jersey's subjects are calculated. How the British interfered with New Jersey's provincial fiscal structure is identified. What revenues and tax burdens would have been without this interference are estimated.
    Keywords: balanced budgets, bills of credit, forensic accounting, land banks, paper money, zero-coupon bonds
    JEL: E42 E60 H20 H60 N11 N21 N41
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Christie Swanepoel and Johan Fourie
    Abstract: Credit markets develop hand in hand with a market economy. Pre-industrial credit markets, like credit (and capital) markets today, developed in order to smooth consumption, ease trade, and enable long-term investment. Yet in the eighteenth century Cape Colony, a Dutch settlement at the southern tip of Africa, commentators of the day were skeptical about what an active credit market could contribute to the economy: for them, borrowing was a sure sign of poverty. Historians have expressed the same view. We present a different picture of the Cape Colony. We use 4,160 probate inventories, listing 12,637 credit transactions and 12,580 debt transactions, to show that the main reason for borrowing was long-term capital investment in property through bonds, and that a particular driver of the Colony's extensive use of credit was slave ownership. We also show that those who benefited from the Colony's thriving credit market were rich, not poor.
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Bauer, Thomas K.; Breidenbach, Philipp; Schmidt, Christoph M.
    Abstract: Using the location of baroque opera houses as a natural experiment, Falck et al. (2011) claim to document a positive causal effect of the supply of cultural goods on today's regional distribution of talents. This paper raises serious doubts on the validity of the identification strategy underlying these estimates, though. While we are able to replicate the original results, we proceed to show that the same empirical strategy also assigns positive causal effects to the location of historical brothels and breweries. These estimated effects are similar in size and signifi cance to those of historical opera houses. We document that all these estimates reflect the importance of institutions for long-run economic growth, and that the effect of historical amenities on the contemporary local share of high skilled workers disappears upon controlling for regions' historical importance.
    Abstract: Anhand der Standorte barocker Opernhäuser als natürliches Experiment zeigen Falck et al. (2011) einen positiven kausalen Effekt zwischen dem regionalen Angebot an Kulturgütern und der Verteilung talentierter Personen. Dieses Papier wirft allerdings Schwächen in der angewandten Identifikationsstrategie auf. Während die Originalergebnisse replizieren werden können, zeigen wir, dass diese Identifikationsstrategie ebenso positive Effekte für die Standorte von Bordellen und Brauereien der Barockzeit liefert, die in Größe und Signifikanz denen der Opern sehr ähneln. Mit der Einbeziehung von Verwaltungssitzen und Großstädten der Barockzeit zeigen wir, dass die Ergebnisse die Wichtigkeit der Institutionen widerspiegeln. Die Effekt der anderen historischen Gegebenheiten verschwinden, wenn für die institutionelle Wichtigkeit kontrolliert wird.
    Keywords: human capital,historical amenities,regional competiveness
    JEL: R11 H42 J24
    Date: 2014
  8. By: Ellen Hillbom; Jutta Bolt
    Abstract: In Sub-Saharan Africa we find some of the highest levels of income inequality in the world. Nevertheless, we generally know very little about the historical development of inequality. In this paper we look at how inequality developed in colonial and post-colonial Botswana. We show that income inequality started rising in the 1940s and peaked in the mid-1970s about the time that the economy switched from cattle to diamonds. Since the 1990s, it has then declined somewhat. Following the tradition of Kuznets we discuss how this rise and decline could be related to a potential structural transformation of the economy.
    Keywords: Colonies, Equality and inequality, Income distribution, Economic aspects (Natural resources), Measurement (Poverty)
    Date: 2015
  9. By: John D. Conroy (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: Without pretension to novelty in the historical narrative, this paper examines how far economic informality emerged among Papuans in Pt. Moresby, capital of Australian Papua. Informal behaviour arises out of inability or unwillingness to conform with what Hart calls 'the institutional effort to organize society along formal lines', where form is 'the rule, an idea of what ought to be universal in social life'. The paper follows my study of informality among Chinese and indigenous Tolai in German New Guinea (GNG), where the goal was to impose conformity with a German ideology of 'national-economic purpose'. In Papua, bureaucratic effort was devoted to organizing society in accordance with a less coherent and compelling ideology, the 'preservation of village life' and, in Pt Moresby, with achieving an 'idea of the town' congenial to Europeans. 'Natives' were excluded from the town, other than as menial workers. The paper considers the bureaucratic effort to realize the 'idea of the town' in Pt Moresby and its impact on the traditional landowners and other Papuans, who proved more acquiescent to bureaucratic suasion than the Tolai in GNG. In consequence, urbanism was retarded and Papuan initiative smothered by paternalism. Much of the narrative revolves around comparisons of GNG, a classic plantation economy, with Papua, seen as an 'unlucky place', lacking natural resources, private investment and government funding, and handicapped (in the eyes of settlers) by undue concern for native welfare. Crucially, the Chinese intermediary class which drew the Tolai of GNG into the monetary economy was absent from Papua. Nor were white traders encouraged to perform this role, while official efforts to engage Papuans with 'the market' were ineffective. Colonial Papua was, as Charles Rowley said, an obsolescent society and economy. The comparatively vigorous economic informality in and around Rabaul before the Pacific War was emblematic of greater progress towards economic development than had proved possible in Hubert Murray's Papua, while Rabaul also expressed a more vigorous urbanism.
    Keywords: informality; urban informal economy; regulation; bureaucracy; plantation economy; colonialism; racism; Keith Hart; Papua; Papua New Guinea; German New Guinea; Hubert Murray; overseas Chinese; Port Moresby
    Date: 2014–11
  10. By: Burgelman, Robert A. (Stanford University)
    Abstract: This paper conceptualizes HP's history of becoming between 1939 and 2015 in terms of an integral process overview encompassing seven distinct epochs and associated corporate transformations, and discusses the differential contributions of successive CEOs to that integral process. The paper examines how the strategic leadership of successive CEOs has mediated the interplays between external context dynamics manifest in the company's evolving industry ecosystem and the internal ecology of strategy-making. Analysis of the messy process of corporate becoming highlights the paradox of corporate becoming, the antifragility of adaptive capacity of long-lived companies, and the existential situation facing successive CEOs.
    Date: 2015–03
  11. By: Geetesh Bhardwaj; Gary Gorton; Geert Rouwenhorst
    Abstract: Gorton and Rouwenhorst (2006) examined commodity futures returns over the period July 1959 to December 2004 based on an equally-weighted index. They found that fully collateralized commodity futures had historically offered the same return and Sharpe ratio as U.S. equities, but were negatively correlated with the return on stocks and bonds. Reviewing these results ten years later, we find that our conclusions largely hold up out-of-sample. The in- and out-of-sample average commodity risk premiums are not significantly different, nor is the cross-sectional relationship between average returns and the basis. Correlations among commodities and commodity correlations with other assets experienced a temporary increase during the financial crisis which is in line with historical experience of variation of these correlations over the business cycle.
    JEL: G1 G11 G12
    Date: 2015–06
  12. By: Howard Bodenhorn; Timothy W. Guinnane; Thomas A. Mroz
    Abstract: Understanding long-term changes in human well-being is central to understanding the consequences of economic development. An extensive anthropometric literature purports to show that heights in the United States declined between the 1830s and the 1890s, which is when the US economy industrialized and urbanized. Most research argues that declining heights reflects the impact of the industrialization process. This interpretation, however, relies on sources subject to selection bias. Changes in that selection mechanism may account for the declining heights. We show that the evidentiary basis of the puzzle is not as robust as previously believed. Our meta-analysis of more than 150 studies shows that declining-heights finding emerges primarily in selected samples. Finally, we offer a parsimonious diagnostic test for revealing (but not necessarily correcting for) selection bias. The diagnostic applied to four samples that underlay the industrialization puzzle shows compelling evidence of selection.
    JEL: J11 N11 N31
    Date: 2015–06
  13. By: Ariel Dvoskin; Fabio Petri
    Abstract: Among the recent interventions in the capital controversy, the debate between Paola Potestio and Kurz&Salvadori has raised important issues. We agree with Potestio’s rejection of the legitimacy of a value endowment of capital but we disagree with her dismissal of the relevance of reswitching and reverse capital deepening: these phenomena are very important because they undermine the demand-side role of the conception of capital as a single factor. For the marginal approach to be plausible, this demand-side role had to imply the stability of the savings-investment market even in shorter time frames than those required by a complete adaptation of the ‘form’ of capital; this was taken by Marshall to authorize doing without a given endowment of value capital, which opened the door to the shift to the modern neo-Walrasian versions of the marginal approach. With proof from Hayek, Hicks, Malinvaud and Lucas we argue that a continuing belief in traditional time-consuming marginalist disequilibrium adjustments based on capital-labour substitution is the hidden reason why the claim, often made by contemporary marginalist economists, that the economy can be assumed to be all the time on the equilibrium-growth path is not found patently unacceptable. The true microfoundation of DSGE macromodels is not intertemporal equilibrium theory, but the adjustment mechanisms on whose basis the marginal approach was born and accepted, and on whose basis monetarism was then able to re-assert a pre-Keynesian view of the working of the economy.
    JEL: B21 D24 D46 D51
    Date: 2015–05
  14. By: Golez, Benjamin (University of Notre Dame); Koudijs, Peter (Stanford University)
    Abstract: We analyze four centuries of stock prices and dividends in the Dutch, English, and U.S. market. With the exception of the post-1945 period, the dividend-to-price ratio is stationary and predicts returns throughout all four centuries. "Excess volatility" is thus a pervasive feature of financial markets. The dividend-to-price ratio also predicts dividend growth rates in all but the most recent period. Cash-flows were therefore much more important for price movements before 1945, and the dominance of discount rate news is a relatively recent phenomenon. This is consistent with the increased duration of the stock market in the recent period.
    JEL: G12 G17 N20
    Date: 2015–01
  15. By: Melissa S. Kearney; Phillip B. Levine
    Abstract: Sesame Street is one of the largest early childhood interventions ever to take place. It was introduced in 1969 as an educational, early childhood program with the explicit goal of preparing preschool age children for school entry. Millions of children watched a typical episode in its early years. Well-designed studies at its inception provided evidence that watching the show generated an immediate and sizeable increase in test scores. In this paper we investigate whether the first cohorts of preschool children exposed to Sesame Street experienced improved outcomes subsequently. We implement an instrumental variables strategy exploiting limitations in television technology generated by distance to a broadcast tower and UHF versus VHF transmission to distinguish counties by Sesame Street reception quality. We relate this geographic variation to outcomes in Census data including grade-for-age status in 1980, educational attainment in 1990, and labor market outcomes in 2000. The results indicate that Sesame Street accomplished its goal of improving school readiness; preschool-aged children in areas with better reception when it was introduced were more likely to advance through school as appropriate for their age. This effect is particularly pronounced for boys and non-Hispanic, black children, as well as children living in economically disadvantaged areas. The evidence regarding the impact on ultimate educational attainment and labor market outcomes is inconclusive.
    JEL: I24 J24
    Date: 2015–06
  16. By: Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS - UNLP); Mariana Marchionni (CEDLAS - UNLP)
    Abstract: This book contributes to the understanding of female labor force participation in Latin America by documenting the changes that took place over the last two decades, exploring their determinants, analyzing their consequences on labor and social outcomes, and discussing implications for public policy. The book highlights a potentially worrisome finding: after around half a century of sustained growth, there are signs of a widespread and significant deceleration in the entry of women into the Latin American labor markets. A version of this paper will be published as Chapter 1 of Gasparini and Marchionni (eds.) (2015). Bridging gender gaps? The rise and deceleration of female labor force participation in Latin America.
    Date: 2015–06
  17. By: Serguey Braguinsky
    Abstract: The diffusion of technological knowledge is key to industry growth. But not all knowledge is created equal. I use a nanoeconomic approach to examine knowledge-diffusion based growth in the Meiji-era Japanese cotton spinning industry, which enjoyed remarkable success after a decade of initial failure. By tracing sources of technological knowledge to individual engineers, I find that successful technology diffusion required the right kind of human capital embodying and transmitting knowledge, and a competitive environment that rewarded talent while weeding out incompetence.
    Date: 2015–06
  18. By: Albuquerque Sant'Anna, André
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to discuss the role of the existence of a powerful socialist bloc as a disciplining device to inequality in western countries. The recent literature on top income inequality has emphasized explanations that go beyond the marginal productivity framework to explain top incomes. Usually the literature points to domestic factors such as top income tax rates and bargaining power. Some authors also assign a role for external factors such as the two World Wars that played in destroying capital, whether physical or financial, through inflation. Nevertheless, this literature does not embody the contributions of the state capacity literature that recognizes external conflicts as a source for the development of institutions that increase state capacity. In this paper, we analyze the role of a latent conflict that has occurred from WWII to the eighties: the Cold War. We believe this lasting conflict helped to shape the creation of common-interest states, as Besley and Persson (2013) defined. Under these commoninterest states, a social cohesion emerged because of the presence of a powerful external enemy, leading to reduced top income shares. In order to test our hypothesis, we run a panel of 18 OECD countries between 1960-2010. We find a robust and negative significant relation between Soviet Union’s relative military power and top income shares.
    Keywords: income inequality, top income shares, state capacity
    JEL: D31 N40 O4
    Date: 2015–04–20
  19. By: Juan Fernando Arango Sánchez
    Abstract: El presente artículo abordará desde una perspectiva histórica, el papel que la naturaleza y la energía han desempeñado en las construcciones teóricas de las principales escuelas del pensamiento económico, desde la perspectiva fisiocrática que les otorgaba un lugar central, hasta la marginación experimentada en la teoría neoclásica.
    Keywords: Escuela clásica; Fisiocracia; Escuela neoclásica; Energía; Naturaleza
    JEL: B10 N01 N5 O33 Q32 Q40
    Date: 2014–12–19
  20. By: Freema, Alan
    Abstract: This paper was presented in the session on ‘Long Waves in Political Economy’ organised by Ingo Schmidt at the Congress of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Ottawa, June 1-4 2015. It discusses the ‘theoretical turn’ towards state intervention in the last Great Depression and the need for clarity about the underlying views of Keynes and Schumpeter – two of the major opposed players in that theoretical turn. It argues that primary function of economics as an esoteric discipline disguises the essence of these underlying theoretical positions. Thus in order to make a rational and evidence-based connection between theory and policy, attention both to interpretation and to assertive pluralism is indispensable.
    Keywords: pluralism, political economy, economics
    JEL: B0 B4
    Date: 2015–06–03
  21. By: Guillermo Maya Muñoz
    Abstract: Por qué solo la economía entre las ciencias sociales tiene Premio Nobel? “Si lo tienen (…) el Premio Nobel de literatura”, responde George Stigler, Premio Nobel (Kuttner, 1985: 79). Los economistas reciben cada año El Premio del Banco de Suecia en Ciencias Económicas en memoria de Alfred Nobel, erróneamente conocido como Premio Nobel de Economía, establecido por el Banco Central de Suecia Sveriges Riksbank, y no por Alfred Nobel, para premiar a sus economistas preferidos, del campo de la ortodoxia económica. Joan Robinson, Nicolás Kaldor y Roy Harrod nunca recibieron el Nobel porque eran verdaderos keynesianos. Esta situación ha legitimado, no solo a los ojos de los economistas sino del público, entre otros, el paradigma de la economía ortodoxa, hipotético-deductivo-apriorístico, copiado de las matemáticas, como el único con validez científica, inmunizándola a las críticas, y validando la funcionalidad de la “ciencia” económica y de sus practicantes con los intereses creados, los dueños del mundo.
    Keywords: Capital; Siglo XXI; Pikkety; Distribución del ingreso
    Date: 2014–12–19
  22. By: Javier Mejía Cubillos
    Abstract: Este documento describe las principales características de la evolución de la economía antioqueña durante la segunda mitad del siglo XIX, tratando de identificar si ésta siguió un proceso de desarrollo económico local. Con ello, además de realizar una reinterpretación novedosa del despegue económico de Antioquia, basado en recientes fuentes recolectadas; este trabajo realiza un aporte dentro de la teoría del desarrollo local, ya que, presentando lo que podría considerarse como una versión generalizada de ella, se rescata la validez atemporal de sus principales consideraciones, normalmente reconocidas aceptables solo en el marco de sociedades postindustriales.
    Keywords: Crecimiento económico; Desarrollo económico local; Antioquia; Siglo XIX.
    JEL: N16 N96 N01 O10 O17
    Date: 2014–12–19
  23. By: Ramón Enrique Vásquez Ramírez
    Abstract: Las rotundas transformaciones demográficas y no demográficas que se dieron en Colombia durante la segunda mitad del siglo pasado y lo que lleva del presente redundaron en significativos cambios de la participación laboral y de la duración en la actividad económica de la población. El análisis de los cambios mencionados resulta de mucha utilidad para la política pública. En especial es útil para la evaluación y la proyección de las demandas de empleo de la población según la edad y de las necesidades de seguros de retiro. El presente artículo explora los cambios según la edad de la participación laboral y de la duración en la actividad económica de la información censal desde la segunda mitad del siglo pasado y el censo de población más reciente. Con esta información también se comparan los cambios de la estructura etaria de la población en edad de trabajar (PET) y de la población económicamente activa (PEA), para discurrir sobre el envejecimiento de la fuerza de trabajo. El análisis de los cambios de la participación laboral de los adultos mayores reviste especial atención en este artículo debido a la progresiva expansión numérica de esta población por efecto de los cambios demográficos, la vasta proporción que se encuentra en condición de pobreza y la baja cobertura del sistema de pensiones en Colombia. En particular con esta información es posible establecer si la trayectoria de participación laboral de las personas en esas edades sustenta las proyecciones existentes. ****** The categorical demographic and non-demographic changes that occurred in Colombia during the second half of the last century and which leads the present, resulted in significant changes in labor force participation and duration in the economic activity of the population. The analysis of these mentioned changes is very useful for public policy. In particular it is useful for the evaluation and screening of applications for employment of the population depending on the age and retirement insurance needs. This article explores the changes according to age of labor force participation and duration in the economic activity census data from the second half of the last century and the most recent population census. With this information the changes in the age structure of the population of working age (PET) and the economically active population (EAP) are compared to discourse on aging workforce. The analysis of changes in labor force participation of older adults is of particular attention in this article due to the progressive numerical expansion of this population as a result of demographic changes, the vast proportion found in poverty and low coverage pension system in Colombia. In particular, with this information is possible to determine whether the trajectory of labor participation of people in that age group supports existing projections.
    Keywords: Participación laboral, patrón de participación laboral, ciclo vital de participación laboral, población económicamente activa, mercado laboral, cambio demográfico, envejecimiento poblacional, adultos mayores, duración de la actividad económica, vidaeconómicamente activa, vida económicamente inactiva.
    Date: 2014–12–16
  24. By: Babashkin, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Department of Economics Russia)
    Abstract: Features of peasant studies methodology in application to the analysis of the evolution of agrarian relations in our country in the 60s - 90s of the past century, it is best to consider the example of smallholders perspective of Soviet/Russian rural workers, as this is an area of everyday life in which peasantry as the basic mental characteristics of a huge number of compatriots continued and continues to be maintained well. And these features, as I have repeatedly emphasized in the publications of previous years, differs the theoretical approach to the study of the problems of social life of both variations on the theme of progress greatly - scientific Soviet communism and Western anti-communism, market progressivism both.
    Keywords: peasant studies methodology, personal subsidiary farms
    Date: 2015–05
  25. By: Ho Fai Chan; Ali Sina Önder; Benno Torgler
    Abstract: We investigate whether Nobel laureates’ collaborative activities undergo a negative change following prize reception by using publication records of 198 Nobel laureates and analyzing their coauthorship patterns before and after the Nobel Prize. The results overall indicate less collaboration with new coauthors post award than pre award. Nobel laureates are more loyal to collaborations that started before the Prize: looking at coauthorship drop-out rates, we find that these differ significantly between coauthorships that started before the Prize and coauthorships after the Prize. We also find that the greater the intensity of pre-award cooperation and the longer the period of pre-award collaboration, the higher the probability of staying in the coauthor network after the award, implying a higher loyalty to the Nobel laureate.
    Keywords: Nobel Prize; Nobel laureate; Award; Network; Coauthors; Recognition; Chemistry; Physics; Physiology or Medicine
    Date: 2015–06
  26. By: Semrad, Alexandra
    Abstract: This paper analyses long-term effects of forced WWII migration on educational outcomes. Specifically Sudeten German expellees in post-war Bavaria coming from highly industrialized Sudetenland (Czechoslovakia) had strong preferences for higher secondary schooling, especially in form of a practical, business-related, and general education school. As a result they became actively engaged in the development of post-war middle track education (Realschule, Fachschule). Employing county-level data on student numbers and graduates of secondary education, empirical analysis including ordinary least squares, instrumental variable, and differences-in-differences models reveals that counties housing a higher share of Sudeten Germans after the war are significantly associated with higher educational development some 20 years later. An increase in the share of Sudeten Germans by 1 percentage point increases the share of children (graduates) in middle track education by at least 0.8 (0.1) percentage points, respectively. Calculations suggest that these effects are not mechanically caused by Sudeten Germans and their children demanding education, but are the actual result of educational spillovers to the local population.
    Keywords: Educational spillovers; Forced migration; Post-war Bavaria
    JEL: I29 N34 O15
    Date: 2015–05

This nep-his issue is ©2015 by Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.