nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2015‒05‒09
39 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Les métamorphoses du capital: Réflexions autour du Capital au XXIe siècle By Thomas Piketty
  2. A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870-2010): filtering, spurious cycles and unobserved component modelling By Cendejas Bueno, José Luis; Muñoz, Félix; Fernández-de-Pinedo, Nadia
  3. National income and its distribution in preindustrial Poland in a global perspective By Nikolaj Malinowski; Jan Luiten van Zanden
  4. A history of contemporary post Keynesian SFC model By LE HERON Edwin; MAROUANE Amine
  5. Radio and the rise of the Nazis in prewar Germany By Adena, Maja; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria; Santarosa, Veronica; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  6. Capital , richesse et croissance By Jean-Luc Gaffard
  7. Effectiveness of humor advertising on advertising success By S, venkatesh; N, senthilkumar
  8. GDP per capita in advanced countries over the 20th century By A. Bergeaud; G. Cette; R. Lecat
  9. War, Housing Rents, and Free Market: A Case of Berlin's Rental Housing Market during the World War I By Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  10. Japan And The Great Divergence, 725-1874 By Bassino, Jean-Pascal; Broadberry, Stephen N; Fukao, Kyoji; Gupta, Bishnupriya; Takashima, Masanori
  11. Creativity and economic growth: theory, measures, and potentials for morocco By Nakamura, Leonard I.
  12. Infant Health and Longevity: Evidence from a Historical Trial in Sweden By Bhalotra, Sonia; Karlsson, Martin
  13. George Orwell as a Public Choice Economist By Makovi, Michael
  14. Decomposing U.S. Water Use Since 1950. Is the U.S. Experience Replicable? By Debaere, Peter; Kurzendoerfer, Amanda
  15. Prosperity, sustainability and the measurement of wealth By Kevin Mumford
  16. New directions for management and organization studies on waste By Corvellec, Hervé
  17. Work Creation and Rearmament in Germany 1933-1938: A Revisionist Assessment of NS-Economic Policy Based on Input-Output Analysis By Rainer Fremdling; Reiner Stäglin
  18. \"The parts and the whole”: Unbundling and re-bundling institutional systems and their effect on economic development By ROUGIER Eric
  19. Impact of Humor Advertising in Radio and Print Advertising - A Review By S, venkatesh; N, senthilkumar
  20. La critique du capital au XXIè sicècle By Guillaume Allegre; Xavier Timbeau
  21. The Mortality Transition, Malthusian Dynamics, and the Rise of Poor Mega-Cities By Remi Jedwab; Dietrich Vollrath
  22. Why Ireland Starved after Three Decades: The Great Famine in Cross-Section Reconsidered By Morgan Kelly; Cormac Ó Gráda
  23. A Green and Socially Equitable Direction for the ICT Paradigm By Carlota Perez
  24. le capital logement ne contribue-t-il vraiment pas aux inégalités ?: réponse à O.Bonnet, P.-H. Bono, G. Chapelle, E. Wasmer (2014) By Guillaume Allegre; Xavier Timbeau
  25. Clearinghouse Loan Certificates as a Lender of Last Resort By Christopher Hoag
  26. Capitalist divination: popularist-speculators and technologies of imagination on the Hooghly River By Laura Bear
  27. Australia in the Asian Century By Ken Henry
  28. The Nature of Conflict By Cemal Eren Arbatli; Quamrul H. Ashraf; Oded Galor
  29. Mass Production and Competition By David Mayer Foulkes
  30. Los inmigrantes en la capital salitrera de Chile: Un analisis de Redes Socio-Espaciales en la ciudad de Antofagasta, 1880 - 1930 By Jose Antonio Gonzalez Pizarro; Marcelo Lufin Varas; Claudio Galeno Ibaceta
  31. How Did Japan Catch-Up On The West? A Sectoral Analysis Of Anglo-Japanese Productivity Differences, 1885-2000 By Broadberry, Stephen N; Fukao, Kyoji; Zammit, Nick
  32. Santa Marta Real y Republicana: El accionar económico y político de la Provincia de Santa Marta en los albores de la independencia, 1810-1830 By Joaquín Viloria-De-la-Hoz
  33. Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record By Jalil, Andrew; Rua, Gisela
  34. Unemployment and Inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012 By Gerlach, Stefan; Lydon, Reamonn; Stuart, Rebecca
  35. The Diversity of Land Institutions in Europe By Johan Swinnen,; Kristine Van Herck; Liesbet Vranken
  36. The Nationalökonomische Gesellschaft (Austrian Economic Association, NOeG) in the Interwar Period and Beyond By Hansjörg Klausinger
  37. Urbanization without Growth in Historical Perspective By Remi Jedwab; Dietrich Vollrath
  38. A Half Century of Trans-Pacific Competition: Price level indices and productivity gaps for Japanese and U.S. industries, 1955-2012 By Dale W. JORGENSON; NOMURA Koji; Jon D. SAMUELS
  39. Climatic Fluctuations and the Diffusion of Agriculture By Quamrul Ashraf; Stelios Michalopoulos

  1. By: Thomas Piketty (Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques)
    Abstract: Je voudrais tout d’abord résumer brièvement ce que j’ai essayé de faire dans ce travail. Il s’agit avant tout d’un livre sur l’histoire du capital et de la répartition des richesses, et des conflits suscités par cette inégale répartition. Mon principal objectif a été de rassembler, grâce au travail combiné d’une trentaine de chercheurs (notamment Anthony Atkinson, Emmanuel Saez, Gilles Postel-Vinay, Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Facundo Alvaredo et Gabriel Zucman), des sources historiques portant sur l’évolution des patrimoines et des revenus dans plus de vingt pays depuis le 18e siècle. La première ambition de ce livre est de présenter ces matériaux historiques de façon cohérente (...).
    Date: 2015–04
  2. By: Cendejas Bueno, José Luis (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales Francisco de Vitoria); Muñoz, Félix (Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica). Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.); Fernández-de-Pinedo, Nadia (Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica). Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)
    Abstract: Time series filtering methods such as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, with a consensual choice of the smoothing parameter, eliminate the possibility of identifying long swing cycles (e.g., Kondratieff type) or, alternatively, may distort periodicities that are in fact present in the data, giving rise, for example, to spurious Kuznets-type cycles. In this paper, we propose filtering Maddison’s time series for the period 1870-2010 for a selection of developed countries using a less restrictive filtering technique that does not impose but rather estimates the cut-off frequency. In particular, we use unobserved component models that optimally estimate the smoothing parameter. Using this methodology, we identify cycles of periods mainly in the range of 4-7 years (Juglar type cycles), as well as a pattern of cyclical convergence that deepens with globalization processes. After 1950, a common business cycle factor grouping all economies is found.
    Keywords: historical business cycles; spectral analysis; unobserved component models; Maddison’s time series.
    JEL: C32 E32 N1
    Date: 2015–04
  3. By: Nikolaj Malinowski (Utrecht University); Jan Luiten van Zanden (Utrecht University)
    Abstract: This paper presents estimates of the level of per capita GDP and of the distribution of income of preindustrial Poland. This is based on a reconstruction of a social table of the Voivodeship of Cracow for 1578. Our evidence indicates that income in Poland was distributed more equally than in contemporary Holland. However, the extraction rate in the Voivodeship was much higher than in the North Sea area. Furthermore, income inequality in the countryside of the Voivodeship was higher than inequality in Cracow. This can be linked to the demesne economy based on serfdom that was prevalent in the agricultural sector. Moreover, on the basis of trends in real wages and urbanisation levels, we project Polish GDP forwards and backwards in time. Our results indicate that by as early as the 15th century, Polish per capita GDP was below that of other Western European countries. This persisted despite a moderate growth of the Polish economy in the 16th century. Subsequently, due to a strong contraction, Poland in the 17th century became even poorer than Asian economies for which similar estimates are available. In the 18th century Poland recovered slightly but continued to lag behind the rest of Western Europe.
    Keywords: Economic growth, Income inequality, ÔGreat DivergenceÕ, Poland, Extraction ratio, Serfdom
    JEL: N13 N33
    Date: 2015–05
  4. By: LE HERON Edwin; MAROUANE Amine
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper will be to show the main features of the post Keynesian stock-flow consistent modeling (SFC) with a presentation of the basic model of Lavoie Godley 2001. Then, we shall give a brief overview of the most important contributions in this search field. Special emphasis will be focused on the latest works, addressing several topics such as financialization, bank behavior, exchange rate, sectors analysis, heterogeneous agents or the impact of economic crisis. We shall present the matrices of stocks and flows and the remarkable equations.
    Keywords: SFC model, post Keynesian theory
    JEL: E12 E27 E40 E52 F43 O55
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Adena, Maja; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria; Santarosa, Veronica; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: How do the media affect public support for democratic institutions in a fragile democracy? What role do they play in a dictatorial regime? We study these questions in the context of Germany of the 1920s and 1930s. During the democratic period, when the Weimar government introduced progovernment political news, the growth of Nazi popularity slowed down in areas with access to radio. This effect was reversed during the campaign for the last competitive election as a result of the pro- Nazi radio broadcast following Hitler's appointment as German chancellor. During the consolidation of dictatorship, radio propaganda helped the Nazis to enroll new party members. After the Nazis established their rule, radio propaganda incited anti-Semitic acts and denunciations of Jews to authorities by ordinary Germans. The effect of anti-Semitic propaganda varied depending on the listeners' predispositions toward the message. Nazi radio was most effective in places where anti- Semitism was historically high and had a negative effect in places with historically low anti-Semitism.
    Abstract: Inwieweit können die Medien zum Schutz oder zur Untergrabung ungefestigter Demokratien beitragen? Und inwieweit können sie Unterstützung für die Politik des Diktators generieren? Wir analysieren diese Fragen im Kontext des Radios in der Weimarer Republik und dem frühen NSRegime. In der Zeit zwischen 1929 und 1932, in der das Rundfunkprogramm pro-demokratisch ausgerichtet war, hatte das Radio einen signifikant negativen Einfluss auf die Wahlergebnisse der NSDAP. Dieser Effekt wurde bereits 5 Wochen nach der Ernennung Hitlers zum Kanzler und der Kontrollübernahme über das Rundfunkprogramm umgekehrt. Nachdem die Nazis ihre Macht konsolidiert hatten, trug die Rundfunkpropaganda messbar zu vermehrten Parteieintritten und zur Zustimmung der Bevölkerung bei der Denunziation von Juden und zu anderen Formen des offenen Antisemitismus bei. Dennoch war der Einfluss der NS-Propaganda nicht uniform. Je nach Voreingenommenheit der Zuhörer konnte die Propaganda sehr effektiv oder aber kontraproduktiv sein. Das NS-Radio war am effektivsten in Orten mit historisch hohem Antisemitismus und hatte einen negativen Effekt auf die Unterstützung der antisemitischen Politik in Orten mit historisch niedrigem Antisemitismus.
    Keywords: Anti-semitism,dictatorship,media,Nazis,propaganda,unconsolidated democracy
    JEL: D72 L82 N74
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Jean-Luc Gaffard (OFCE)
    Abstract: Le livre de Thomas Piketty Le Capital au XXIe siècle est ambivalent. D'un côté, une lecture théorique trop simple, fondamentalement a-institutionnelle, retient un taux de croissance définitivement exogène et ignore l'hétérogénéité du capital, faisant de la répartition des revenus et des richesses une donnée technique sans influence en retour sur la croissance elle-même. D'un autre côté, les faits stylisés rassemblés et les intuitions qui y sont associées incitent réfléchir sur les tenants et aboutissants de la répartition des revenus et des patrimoines pour lui redonner une place centrale dans la théorie économique et lui restituer sa dimension sociale.
    Keywords: capital; croissance; rente; repartition; richesse
    Date: 2015–04
  7. By: S, venkatesh; N, senthilkumar
    Abstract: In global advertising ‘humor’ is the most effective emotion used in advertising compared to other emotional appeals. Advertisers and researchers more interested in Humor in advertising for more than 100 years. But there is no review paper for Impact of humor in advertising till twenty two years of time, in between period there was lot of research outcomes published about humor in advertising. The purpose of this paper to get detailed review about Impact of humor in advertising for 40 years and detailed overview about various humor related aspects and also it supports earlier outcomes, what’s the purpose of humor used in advertising are analysed here. The various Journal databases were collected and reviewed; the paper is very useful for Advertisers, marketing practitioners and researchers who research on Humor in Advertising
    Keywords: Effectiveness of Humor advertising, Humor advertising, Humor, advertising, advertising review, Effectiveness of Humor advertising on Advertising Success
    JEL: M00 M1 M2 M3
    Date: 2015–03
  8. By: A. Bergeaud; G. Cette; R. Lecat
    Abstract: This study presents a GDP per capita level and growth comparison across 17 main advanced countries and over the 1890-2013 long period. It proposes also a comparison of the level and growth of the main components of GDP per capita through an accounting breakdown and runs Philips-Sul (2007) convergence tests over GDP per capita and its main components. These components are total factor productivity, capital intensity (capital stock per hours worked), working time and employment rate. Over the whole period, standards of living as measured by GDP per capita experienced a very marked increase in advanced countries, especially because of the surge in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and in capital intensity. The main results of the study are the following: i) All countries experienced at least one big wave of GDP per capita growth during the 20th Century, but of different sizes and in a staggered manner; ii) Almost all countries have suffered from a significant decline in GDP per capita growth during the last decades of the period; iii) The GDP per capita leadership changed among large countries over the period, from the UK until WWI to the US since WWII; iv) There is an overall convergence process among advanced countries, mainly after WWII, relying mostly on capital intensity convergence and then on TFP convergence, while evolutions in hours worked and even more employment rates are more disparate; v) But this convergence process is not continuous and was particularly scattered since 1990, as the convergence of the EA, the UK and Japan to the US GDP per capita level stopped at a large distance, with reforming or structurally flexible countries accelerating thanks to the Information and Communication Technology shock, while some countries such as Japan lingered in crisis; vi) Employment rates and hours worked did not contribute to the overall convergence process, with club convergence very often appearing for these variables among European countries on one side and Anglo-Saxon countries on the other. Dynamics were especially divergent between these two groups since 1974, as opposite labor policies were implemented.
    Keywords: GDP per capita, Productivity, convergence, technological change, global history.
    JEL: E20 N10 O47
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Konstantin A. Kholodilin
    Abstract: Before the World War I, the urban rental housing market in Germany could be described as a free and competitive market. The government hardly interfered in the relationships between the landlords and ten- ants. The rents were set freely. During the World War I, the market was hit by several violent shocks. The outbreak of the war led initially to a huge outflow of men from cities to the fronts. Towards the end of the war, the cessation of construction as well as an inflow of workers and mustered out of service soldiers produced an acute housing shortage. Using a unique data set of asking rents extracted from the newspaper announcements, we constructed a monthly time series of rents in Berlin over 1909-1917. This variable is employed to measure the effects of demand and supply shocks on different segments of housing: from small dwellings for poor to large apartments for rich. The analysis shows a decline of rents (especially of the cheap dwellings) in the first half of the war, followed by a moderate increase. This stands in marked contrast to a steady and strong increase of the overall price level.
    Keywords: housing rents; announcements; World War I; Berlin
    JEL: C10 C52 C53 E32
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Bassino, Jean-Pascal; Broadberry, Stephen N; Fukao, Kyoji; Gupta, Bishnupriya; Takashima, Masanori
    Abstract: Japanese GDP per capita grew at an annual rate of 0.04 per cent between 725 and 1874, but the growth was episodic, with the increase in per capita income concentrated in three periods, 1150-1280, 1450-1600 and after 1730, interspersed with periods of stable per capita income. There is a similarity here with the growth pattern of Britain. The first countries to achieve modern economic growth at opposite ends of Eurasia thus shared the experience of an early end to growth reversals. However, Japan started at a lower level than Britain and grew more slowly until the Meiji Restoration.
    Keywords: Britain; GDP per capita; Great Divergence; growth reversals; Japan
    JEL: N10 N30 N35 O10 O57
    Date: 2015–05
  11. By: Nakamura, Leonard I. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: The current era of globalization is dominated by the rise of investments in intangible capital rather than tangible capital — the ascendance of creativity over plant and equipment. This brief paper is motivated by the possibility that emerging market economies such as Morocco might take greater advantage of new tools and policies designed for this new era. To begin, I discuss the transformation of the global economy and the consequences of the transformed global economy for economic thinking and measurement. I refer to both old and new literature on the measurement of intangible investment and capital. Then, I discuss the rising role of creativity and cultural difference in the development of these new economic forces, using the example of the Harry Potter book series. I then consider how cultural enhancement serves multiple purposes for a nation. Finally, I turn to some of the possible implications of these economic forces for Morocco, stressing that these implications are speculative.
    Keywords: Intangibles; Emerging market economies; Measurement; Economic development
    JEL: C8 O2 O32 Z11
    Date: 2015–04–29
  12. By: Bhalotra, Sonia; Karlsson, Martin
    Abstract: This paper investigates the potential of an infant intervention to improve life expectancy, contributing to emerging interest in the early life origins of chronic disease. We analyse a pioneering program trialled in Sweden in the 1930s, which provided information, support and monitoring of infant care. Using birth certficate data from parish records matched to death registers, we estimate that the average duration of program exposure in infancy led to a 1.54% point decline in the risk of infant death (23% of baseline risk) and a 2.37% decline in the risk of dying by age 75 (6.5% of baseline risk).
    Date: 2015–04–29
  13. By: Makovi, Michael
    Abstract: George Orwell is famous for his two final fictions, Animal Farm and Nineteen Eighty-Four. These two works are sometimes understood to defend capitalism against socialism. But as Orwell was a committed socialist, this could not have been his intention. Orwell's criticisms were directed not against socialism per se but against the Soviet Union and similarly totalitarian regimes. Instead, these fictions were intended as Public Choice-style investigations into which political systems furnished suitable incentive structures to prevent the abuse of power. This is demonstrated through a study of Orwell's non-fiction works, where his opinions and intentions are more explicit.
    Keywords: Orwell, Public Choice, socialism, totalitarianism, Neoconservatism
    JEL: B24 B31 D72 P20 P30 Z11
    Date: 2015–05–05
  14. By: Debaere, Peter; Kurzendoerfer, Amanda
    Abstract: Water use in the U.S. has followed a remarkable pattern since 1950, not mimicking the almost uninterrupted 110 percent increase in the size of the U.S. population, the relatively steady 570 percent growth in real GDP, and the 220 percent improvement in per capita GDP. After doubling between 1950 and 1980, the total volume of water withdrawn has stabilized and even decreased in recent years. Our decomposition shows that between 35 and 50 percent of the productivity gains that allowed the U.S. to produce each dollar of its GDP with increasingly less water stems from long-term structural changes of the U.S. economy since 1950 (growing service economy, declining manufacturing and agricultural sectors). The remaining 50 to 65 percent is due to improved production techniques, and in particular due to water productivity improvements in the electricity-generating sector, especially since the mid to late 1970s. We argue that while globalization has helped reduce U.S. water use particularly since 1980, the U.S. ability to import more water-intensive goods is not the main reason U.S. water use plateaued.
    Keywords: international economics; natural resources; water
    JEL: F18 Q25
    Date: 2015–05
  15. By: Kevin Mumford
    Abstract: This paper takes a stocks rather than a flows approach to measuring national prosperity. It examines changes in capital stocks of different kinds in Asian economies, including produced capital, natural capital, human capital and inclusive wealth.
    Keywords: national wealth, capital stocks, measurement, prosperity
    JEL: E01 E22
    Date: 2015–04
  16. By: Corvellec, Hervé (Gothenburg Research Institute)
    Abstract: This article presents a research agenda about waste management from the perspective of management and organization studies. The agenda suggests that scholars should draw upon research on waste governance, lean management, the circular economy, and sustainable consumption. It also suggests, in a crossdisciplinary, spirit, that scholars should heed research on waste within other social sciences and the humanities.
    Keywords: Waste management; Lean thinking; Circular economy; Sustainable consumption; Otherness; Leonia
    Date: 2015–05–05
  17. By: Rainer Fremdling; Reiner Stäglin
    Abstract: We try to measure the impact work creation programs and rearmament had on employment and production of the German economy before World War II. Theoretically based on an extended version of the conventional input-output analysis, our model or analytical framework integrates the Keynesian multiplier into Leontief´s traditional model. Empirically, we apply our recently presented input-output table of Germany for the benchmark year of 1936. Putting together the effects of both work creation proper and rearmament demonstrates that more than one million jobs were created here as early as 1933. And in 1934 and 1935, even three to four million people were employed in this manner. Several hundred thousand and later millions of jobs profited from the additional income spent on consumption. In the years from 1936 onwards, the enormous increase to five million and more for armament production alone was accompanied by additional employment and measures to restrict additional consumption. Of course one can speculate about the counterfactual scenario of whether or not such an upswing would have taken place without Hitler´s economic policy. It is true that the turning point of the business cycle had been passed in 1932, thus before Hitler had become chancellor and maybe it is also true that work creation programs and rearmament were not a necessary condition to achieve full employment as early as 1936/37. On basis of our reassessment, however, we can safely claim that they were a sufficient condition for this purpose. In more general terms, our reassessment rather supports the former view put forward, e. g. by Overy that the NS-regime introduced “a wide range of government policies designed to augment and speed up the existing recovery”. We would, however, modify his chronology, that rearmament became increasingly important from 1936 onwards: rearmament actually gathered momentum as early as 1934.
    Date: 2015
  18. By: ROUGIER Eric
    Abstract: This paper surveys the growing empirical neo-institutional literature dealing with economic development and shows that it has essentially developed a one-dimensional perspective on institutions and their effect on economic development that has overlooked the fact that economic effects of institutions actually tend to cluster. The paper introduces an original framework to analyze institutional systems and the clustered effect of institutions. Drawing on this framework and on recent empirical studies having attempted to unbundle or re-bundle institutional systems along these lines, it is argued that understanding how institutions cluster their impact on economic outcomes imposes to give more attention to institutional systems, notably by (1) unbundling the specific economic effects of specialized institutions from those of such general purpose institutions as rule of law or property right enforcement, and by (2) re-bundling these effects so that de jure and de facto complementarities and hierarchies can be identified between specialized and general purpose institutions.
    Keywords: Economic institutions; Political institutions; Economic development; Institutional complementarities; Institutional hierarchies; Institutional systems; Institutional clusters
    JEL: O17 P51 K11 K31
    Date: 2015
  19. By: S, venkatesh; N, senthilkumar
    Abstract: The use of humour in advertising is the effective way of communication in any emotion to sell the products. Humor increase attention and attract more consumers so it became an effective advertising in any medium of advertising. Researchers and Advertisers more interested towards humor advertising more than century, but no review paper regarding impact of humor in radio and print advertising are published. Aim of this paper to get detailed review on impact of humor in radio and print advertising since 1979. Many journal databases were collected and reviewed here this paper is very useful for marketing practitioners, advertisers and researchers who research on humor in advertising in radio and print media.
    Keywords: Advertising, humor advertising, radio advertising, prints advertising, review of humor advertising, Impact of Humor Advertising in Radio and Print Advertising - A Review, Impact of advertising, impact of radio, impact of print, impact of advertising a review
    JEL: M0 M1 M2 M3 M5
    Date: 2015–03
  20. By: Guillaume Allegre (OFCE); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE)
    Abstract: Dans son ouvrage Le capital au XXIe siècle, Thomas Piketty propose une analyse critique de la dynamique de l’accumulation du capital. L’auteur montre que si le rendement du capital (r) est plus élevé que la croissance économique (g), ce qui a pratiquement toujours été le cas dans l’histoire, alors il est presque inévitable que les patrimoines hérités dominent les patrimoines constitués et que la concentration du capital atteigne des niveaux extrêmement élevés. Le livre cherche ainsi des fondements macroéconomiques (r>g) aux inégalités alors que les explications habituelles sont d’ordre micro-économique. Nous soulignons que l’on peut interpréter les faits décrits selon une causalité différente où les inégalités découlent du fonctionnement (imparfait) des marchés, des rentes de rareté et de l’établissement des droits de propriété. Selon cette interprétation, ce n’est pas r>g qui a transformé les entrepreneurs en rentiers, mais la mise en place de mécanismes permettant l’extraction d’une rente perpétuelle qui explique la constance historique r>g. Cette interprétation différente des mêmes phénomènes a des conséquences en termes de politique publique. L’imposition ex post du capital, si nécessaire, ne peut être qu’un choix de second rang : il faut d’abord lever les contraintes de rareté et se préoccuper de la définition des droits de propriété ainsi que des droits des propriétaires et des non-propriétaires
    Keywords: capital; revenu; inegalités; croissance; redistribution; impot
    Date: 2015–04
  21. By: Remi Jedwab (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University); Dietrich Vollrath
    Abstract: The largest cities in the world today lie mainly in relatively poor countries, which is a departure from historical experience, when the largest cities were typically found in the richest places. Using new data on the demographic history of the 100 largest mega-cities of today, we establish several new stylized facts distinguishing poor mega-cities from historically rich mega-cities. To account for these facts we develop a model that combines Malthusian models of endogenous population growth with urban models of agglomeration and congestion, and it shows that the absolute growth of the urban population determines whether a city becomes a poor or rich mega-city. We posit that poor mega-cities arose in part because the post-war mortality transition raised their absolute growth above a crucial threshold. Poor mega-cities continue to grow in size but not in living standards because their poverty keeps population growth high. By expanding prior to the mortality transition, historical mega-cities experienced smaller absolute growth that allowed them to sustain wage growth and kept population growth relatively low.
    Keywords: Urban Malthusianism, Demographic Regime, Megacities, Congestion, Growth
    JEL: O11 O14 O18 L16 N10 N90 R10
    Date: 2015–01
  22. By: Morgan Kelly (University College Dublin); Cormac Ó Gráda (University College Dublin)
    Abstract: This short paper revisits two questions that were central to Joel Mokyr’s Why Ireland Starved (2nd edition, 1985). These are, first, what determined the variation in population change across Ireland during the Great Famine decade of 1841-1851 and, second, whether and in what sense can pre-famine Ireland be characterized as ‘malthusian’.
    Keywords: Famine, Malthus, population, Ireland
    JEL: N3 B3
    Date: 2015–04–22
  23. By: Carlota Perez
    Abstract: This paper takes up Chris Freeman's challenge of facing the environmental limits with science, technology and innovation in order to keep open the possibilities of the developing world along a sustainable "green" growth path. It analyses the differences between the energy intensive paradigm of mass production and consumerism in mid-20th Century and the potential shift to sustainability generally provided by the ICT revolution. It then focuses on the developing world and examines the changes in the global market context that are creating windows of opportunity for local innovation, social inclusion and green growth. It finally discusses the alliances and conditions for taking full advantage of the available transformative potential.
    Date: 2014
  24. By: Guillaume Allegre (OFCE); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE)
    Abstract: Dans une réponse au Capital au XXIe siècle de Piketty, Bonnet et al. (2014) affirment que le patrimoine immobilier devrait être valorisé différemment des autres types de patrimoine, en utilisant les loyers et non les prix de marché. Les auteurs concluent que le poids du capital est resté stable, ce qui contredit les conclusions de T. Piketty. Nous montrons que les auteurs minimisent la contribution du logement aux inégalités en faisant disparaître l’impact des gains en capital et de l’héritage sur les inégalités de revenu et de consommation. Nous soulignons une incohérence théorique dans l’argumentation des auteurs : ils valorisent le capital à la somme des valeurs actualisées des loyers, sous l’hypothèse que ce qui compte c’est le fait d’être logé ; puis utilisent un modèle dynastique dans lequel c’est le fait de transmettre la propriété et non le flux actualisé des loyers qui compte.
    Keywords: patrimoine; logement; capital; revenu; inegalités
    Date: 2015–04
  25. By: Christopher Hoag (Department of Economics, Trinity College)
    Abstract: Which banks borrow from a lender of last resort? Looking across multiple panics of the nineteenth century, this paper treats borrowing of clearinghouse loan certificates as borrowing from a lender of last resort. We evaluate individual bank use of clearinghouse loan certificates in New York City using bank balance sheet data. Bank capital ratios do not predict borrowing. Lower pre-panic reserve ratios and greater reserve losses during the crisis increased the probability of positive net borrowing from a lender of last resort.
    Keywords: bank, lender of last resort, loan certificates
    JEL: G21 G28 N21
    Date: 2015–04
  26. By: Laura Bear
    Abstract: Economic theory and technocratic policy have long understood economic action to be a communicative activity. From Laplace and Adam Smith to current liberalisation fiscal policy in India designed to produce price signals and entrepreneurial behaviour this conceptualisation has been dominant. Instead this article draws on the anthropology of divination to argue that capitalist action is provoked by technologies of the imagination that generate speculation. These issues are explored in the context of changing forms of governance of the Hooghly riverine economy by bureaucrats in the Kolkata Port Trust. Through ethnography we track how public-private partnerships are forged by exemplary men or 'seers' deploying divinatory action. The fortunes of business, trade and the livelihoods of informalised workers rest on these practices, which generate short-term unstable forms of capital accumulation. Drawing on this case, we can potentially develop comparative critical approaches to the recent emergence of popularist-speculators in India and elsewhere.
    Keywords: speculation; divination; economic governance; South Asia; austerity
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2015
  27. By: Ken Henry (Crawford School of Public Policy)
    Abstract: This paper examines a new economic narrative for Australia to replace the emphasis on 'competitiveness' that sustained the wave of reform in the 1980s and 1990s. The need to ensure that Australians are endowed with the capabilities that will be relevant to success in this Asian century calls for a renewed focus on these, and other, national endowments. The White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century identified a need for new foundational investments, including public investments : in Australian schools, universities and vocational training centres; in developing Asia-capable workplaces and institutions; in developing a much deeper understanding of the history, cultures, languages, geography and governance of our regional neighbours; in devoting more effort to what has become known as ‘track 2 diplomacy’; in building strong people-to-people relationships based on trust and mutual respect; and in encouraging adaptability. International competitiveness in the Asian century will be enhanced by paying attention to all of these endowments, and leveraging them into commercial partnerships, not by pursuing a race to the bottom on wages, taxes, social foundations, environmental standards or animal welfare.
    Date: 2015–04
  28. By: Cemal Eren Arbatli (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Quamrul H. Ashraf (Williams College); Oded Galor (Brown University)
    Abstract: This research establishes that the emergence, prevalence, recurrence, and severity of intrastate conflicts in the modern era reflect the long shadow of prehistory. Exploiting variations across national populations, it demonstrates that genetic diversity, as determined predominantly during the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, has contributed significantly to the frequency, incidence, and onset of both overall and ethnic civil conflict over the last half-century, accounting for a large set of geographical and institutional correlates of conflict, as well as measures of economic development. Furthermore, the analysis establishes the significant contribution of genetic diversity to the intensity of social unrest and to the incidence of intragroup factional conflict. These findings arguably reflect the contribution of genetic diversity to the degree of fractionalization and polarization across ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups in the national population; the adverse influence of genetic diversity on interpersonal trust and cooperation; the contribution of genetic diversity to divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive policies; and the potential impact of genetic diversity on economic inequality within a society.
    Keywords: Civil conflict, genetic diversity, fractionalization, polarization, interpersonal trust, preferences for public goods, economic inequality
    JEL: D74 N30 N40 O11 O43 Z13
    Date: 2015–04
  29. By: David Mayer Foulkes (Division of Economics, CIDE)
    Abstract: I evaluate the optimality properties of a two sector market economy consisting of a mass production sector with market power and a competitive sector with small scale production. Adam Smith's results hold: the presence of market power renders production and innovation inefficient, as higher prices for mass produced goods deviate resources from inputs to profits. Aggregate production, wages and innovation in both sectors are suboptimal. The higher the large scale sector market power, the more important small scale sector innovation is for salary levels. An approximation to the first best in production and innovation can be achieved by a product-specific market power tax rewarding production rather than profit rates, with zero taxes levied at equilibrium. Innovation, but not production, can be optimized by taxing profits and subsidizing innovation. The concentration of property inherent in the large scale sector also helps to explain the inequality pointed out by Piketty in “Capital in the Twenty’First Century”. These results hold for leading countries or for countries lagging in levels or in growth rates. In lagging countries differing only in institutional and fixed productivity effects, the small scale sector is relatively more backward than in leading countries. This provides an explanation for the existence of large informal and other excluded sectors. Pro-poor growth reduces market power in the large scale sector and promotes technologies in the small scale sector. La concentracion de la propiedad inherente del sector de producción masiva también ayuda a explicar la desigualdad que señala Piketty en “Capital in the Twehty’First Century”.
    Keywords: Welfare, market power, inequality, optimality, mass production.
    Date: 2015–03
  30. By: Jose Antonio Gonzalez Pizarro (Universidad Catolica del Norte); Marcelo Lufin Varas (Departamento de economia, Universidad Catolica del Norte); Claudio Galeno Ibaceta (Universidad Catolica del Norte)
    Abstract: Durante la vigencia de la era del nitrato (salitre) principalmente en su etapa de mayor despliegue e influencia, la región de Antofagasta se convirtió en la mayor región exportadora del país y sostenedora principal de los ingresos fiscales, con una inserción completa en los mercados globales de dicha época. En el periodo bajo análisis, la zona había sido recientemente incorporada al país y en su poblamiento recibió variados flujos migratorios extra-continentales y transfronterizos. El trabajo examina la conformación de los barrios y las relaciones surgidas de los espacios de sociabilidad para centrarse en el análisis de 3 tipos específicos de fuerza migratoria: Argentinos, Británicos y Serbo-Croatas (Yugoslavos). Para ello se centra la atención en su localización en la ciudad capital de la región, Antofagasta, con el propósito de describir las propiedades topológicas de las redes socio-espaciales derivadas siguiendo un enfoque tipo FOCI en la configuración de barrios que dieron lugar a la ciudad. Las fuentes de los datos son los prontuarios migratorios individuales de las personas avecindadas en Antofagasta entre 1880-1930, a partir de estos datos individuales se elaboran redes de relaciones de vecindad. La configuración del sistema espacial y la configuración de vecindarios se realizan por medio de análisis estadístico de patrones de puntos, las redes socio-espaciales son examinadas utilizando indicadores convencionales de segregación residencial, tanto en su forma global como por vecindarios ego-centrados. Los resultados permiten caracterizar en forma inédita a los tres grupos migratorios en estudio, evidenciando las estrategias de participación en la vida urbana de la ciudad en el periodo fundacional y económicamente más relevante de la misma. El sistema socio-espacial indica altos niveles de mixtura entre los grupos extranjeros en análisis, patrón compatible con la vivencia de una ciudad multi-étnica espacialmente integrada.
    Keywords: Inmigración internacional, patrones espaciales, enclave ético.
    Date: 2015–04
  31. By: Broadberry, Stephen N; Fukao, Kyoji; Zammit, Nick
    Abstract: Although Japanese economic growth after the Meiji Restoration is often characterised as a gradual process of trend acceleration, comparison with the United States suggests that catching-up only really started after 1950, due to the unusually dynamic performance of the US economy before 1950. A comparison with the United Kingdom, still the world productivity leader in 1868, reveals an earlier period of Japanese catching up between the 1890s and the 1920s, with a pause between the 1920s and the 1940s. Furthermore, this earlier process of catching up was driven by the dynamic productivity performance of Japanese manufacturing, which is also obscured by a comparison with the United States. Japan overtook the UK as a major exporter of manufactured goods not simply by catching-up in labour productivity terms, but by holding the growth of real wages below the growth of labour productivity so as to enjoy a unit labour cost advantage. Accounting for levels differences in labour productivity between Japan and the United Kingdom reveals an important role for capital in the catching-up process, casting doubt on the characterisation of Japan as following a distinctive Asian path of labour intensive industrialisation.
    Keywords: international comparison; labour productivity; sectoral disaggregation
    JEL: N10 N30 O47 O57
    Date: 2015–05
  32. By: Joaquín Viloria-De-la-Hoz
    Abstract: El objetivo del presente artículo es analizar las circunstancias en que se dio el proceso de Independencia en las provincias del Caribe colombiano, centrado en las acciones ocurridas en la provincia de Santa Marta. Se busca conocer el accionar económico y político de los indígenas, los comerciantes catalanes, los militares venezolanos y los criollos de Santa Marta durante la guerra de Independencia y sus motivaciones para defender la monarquía española o la nueva República. En los albores de la Independencia, la historia de Santa Marta muestra que las autoridades coloniales favorecieron en ocasiones los intereses de los indígenas. Estas acciones generaron fidelidad de los indígenas ante el régimen colonial, el cual ya conocían y no les generaba grandes incertidumbres. La inclinación política de cada grupo estuvo mediada por su desenvolvimiento económico, que también se analizará en este documento. En el caso de Santa Marta, su economía giraba en torno a la actividad portuaria, el comercio interno y externo, así como a los cultivos de caña en las cercanías de la ciudad. En el resto de la provincia la actividad económica dominante fue la ganadería, principalmente en la zona de Valledupar, Valencia de Jesús y Plato.
    Keywords: Santa Marta, Cartagena, Mamatoco, Bolívar, Montilla, Morillo, independencia, realismo, colonia.
    JEL: N01 Z10 Y Z19
    Date: 2015–04–28
  33. By: Jalil, Andrew (Occidental College); Rua, Gisela (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))
    Abstract: This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts, we show that inflation expectations increased dramatically. Second, using an event-studies approach, we identify the impact on financial markets of the key events that shifted inflation expectations. Third, we gather new evidence--both quantitative and narrative--that indicates that the shift in inflation expectations played a causal role in stimulating the recovery.
    Keywords: Great Depression; inflation expectations; liquidity trap; narrative evidence; regime change
    JEL: E31 E32 E42 N12
    Date: 2015–04–22
  34. By: Gerlach, Stefan; Lydon, Reamonn; Stuart, Rebecca
    Abstract: We study the determination of Irish inflation between 1926 and 2012. The difference between unemployment and the NAIRU is a significant determinant of inflation in a simple backward-looking Phillips Curve that incorporates import prices. While there is a break in 1979-80, when the link to Sterling was abandoned, this effect is present in the full sample and in the subsamples spanning 1926-1979 and 1980-2012. The econometric model assumes that the NAIRU follows a random walk.
    Keywords: historical statistics; import prices; inflation; Ireland; unemployment
    JEL: E3 E4 N14
    Date: 2015–05
  35. By: Johan Swinnen,; Kristine Van Herck; Liesbet Vranken
    Abstract: The creation of optimal land institutions attracted renewed attention in the 1990s because of its central role in the transition process in former Communist countries in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and more recently because of large-scale land investments in developing countries. This paper documents the existence of large variations in land institutions (markets and regulation) using current and historical data from Western and Eastern Europe. It then offers explanations for these differences and draws implications for the role and optimality of land institutions in development (with special reference to the current debate on large scale land acquisitions).
    Keywords: Institutions, regulation, land markets, Europe
    Date: 2014
  36. By: Hansjörg Klausinger (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: The Nationalökonomische Gesellschaft (Austrian Economic Association, NOeG) provides a prominent example of the Viennese economic circles that more than academic economics dominated scientific discourse in the interwar years. For the first time this paper gives a thorough account of its history, from its foundation 1918 until the demise of its long-time president, Hans Mayer, 1955, based on official documents and archival material. The topics treated include its predecessor and rival, the Gesellschaft österreichischer Volkswirte, the foundation 1918 soon to be followed by years of inactivity, the relaunch by Mayer and Mises, the survival under the NS-regime and the expulsion of its Jewish members, and the slow restoration after 1945. In particular, an attempt is made to provide a list of the papers presented to the NOeG, as complete as possible, for the period 1918-1938.
    Keywords: History of economic thought, Austrian school of economics, Vienna economic circles, University of Vienna
    JEL: A14 B13 B25
  37. By: Remi Jedwab (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University); Dietrich Vollrath
    Abstract: The world is becoming more and more urbanized at every income level, and there has been a dramatic increase in the number of mega-cities in the developing world. This has led scholars to believe that development and urbanization are not always correlated, either across space or over time. In this paper, we use historical data at both the country level and city level over the five centuries between 1500-2010 to revisit the topic of “urbanization without growth†(Fay & Opal, 2000). In particular, we first establish that, although urbanization and income remain highly correlated within any given year, urbanization is 25-30 percentage points higher in 2010 than in 1500 at every level of income per capita. Second, while historically this shift in urbanization rates was more noticeable at the upper tail of the income distribution, i.e. for richer countries, it is now particularly visible at the lower tail, i.e. for poorer countries. Third, these patterns suggest that different factors may have explained the shift in different periods of time. We use the discussion of these factors as an opportunity to provide a survey of the literature and summarize our knowledge of what drives the urbanization process over time.
    Keywords: Urbanization without Growth, Economic Development, Megacities, Urban Poverty, Urbanization
    JEL: N9 R1 O1
  38. By: Dale W. JORGENSON; NOMURA Koji; Jon D. SAMUELS
    Abstract: Trans-Pacific competition between Japanese and U.S. industries has provided powerful incentives for mutually beneficial economic cooperation between Japan and the United States. The benefits would be greatly enhanced by the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership, an international agreement that would involve Japan, the United States, and 10 additional countries of the Asia-Pacific region. In this paper, we analyze competition between Japanese and U.S. industries in detail over more than a half century. We conclude with a discussion of opportunities for improving productivity performance in both countries.We first present new estimates of price level indices for Japan and the United States over the period 1955-2012. These indices are key indicators of international competitiveness between the two countries, often expressed as over-valuation or under-valuation of the Japanese yen relative to the U.S. dollar. We provide price level indices for outputs and inputs of 36 industries and for the two economies as a whole. The inputs at the industry level include capital, labor, energy, materials, and services (KLEMS). For an economy as a whole, output is gross domestic product (GDP) and the inputs are capital and labor services.We use our price level indices to generate new estimates of productivity gaps for the two countries and for individual industries. The productivity gap is an indicator of the efficiency of production. A wide Japan-U.S. productivity gap that existed in 1955 contracted for more than three decades, and Japan came close to parity with the United States in 1991. After the collapse of the "bubble economy" in Japan, the Japan-U.S. productivity gap widened again and only a few industries in Japan retained a productivity advantage over their U.S. counterparts in 2012. We conclude that industries sheltered from international competition offer the greatest opportunities for improvements in productivity performance.
    Date: 2015–05
  39. By: Quamrul Ashraf (Williams College); Stelios Michalopoulos (Brown University)
    Abstract: This research examines the climatic origins of the diffusion of Neolithic agriculture across countries and archaeological sites. The theory suggests that a foraging society's history of climatic shocks shaped the timing of its adoption of farming. Specifically, as long as climatic disturbances did not lead to a collapse of the underlying resource base, the rate at which hunter-gatherers were climatically propelled to experiment with their habitats determined the accumulation of tacit knowledge complementary to farming. Consistent with the proposed hypothesis, the empirical investigation demonstrates that, conditional on biogeographic endowments, climatic volatility has a hump-shaped effect on the timing of the adoption of agriculture.
    Keywords: Hunting and gathering, agriculture, Neolithic Revolution, climatic volatility, Broad Spectrum Revolution, technological progress
    JEL: N50 O11 O13 O31 O33 O44 O57 Q56 Z13
    Date: 2014–04

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