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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2015‒04‒11
thirty papers chosen by |
| By: | Wen, Yi (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | The rise of China is no doubt the most important event in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. The institutional theory of development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions cannot explain China’s rise. This article argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China’s growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable. Conversely, China’s spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental flaws of neoliberalism and the Washington Consensus and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical episodes such as Latin America’s lost decade and plagued debt crisis, 19th century Europe’s great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Revolution; the Rise of China; the Great Divergence; Market Fundamentalism; Neoliberalism; Big Push; Import Substitution Industrialization; Shock Therapy; Washington Consensus; New Structuralism; New Stage Theory. |
| JEL: | B00 N00 O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2015-006&r=his |
| By: | Kentaro Nakajima (Graduate School of Economics, Tohoku University); Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | After the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, Japan annexed Korea in 1910. We exploit this event as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of improved market access on the population growth. It is found that the tariff reduction raised the growth rate of population, and that that the impact of the tariff reduction was significantly larger in the areas close to the removed border between Japan and Korea. As predicted by spatial economics theory, market proximity was indeed a determinant of the spatial distribution of economic activities. In the context of economic history, our findings suggest that it is important to reconsider the economic consequences of imperialism from the angle of spatial economics. -- |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2015cf968&r=his |
| By: | Gabriel P. Mathy |
| Abstract: | Long-term unemployment was a problem both during the Great Depression and today. As employers view the long-term unemployed as lower-quality employees, this reduces their prospects for reemployment long after the end of a recession, a phenomenon which has been previously described as "hysteresis in unemployment." I find that hysteresis was a significant problem during the Great Depression as the number of long-term unemployed rose, but that the essentially unlimited labor demand during the Second World War provided jobs even to the long-term unemployed. As a result, the hysteresis effect was reversed and labor market conditions in the 1950s resembled those of the 1920s prior to the Great Depression. The Beveridge Curve has also shifted out during the Great Recession as long-term unemployment has risen. Both of these shifts are also evident during the Great Depression. I provide some rough estimates of the costs of this hysteresis effect through a counterfactual simulation where the unemployed are matched to new jobs during the Great Recession and its aftermath just as easily as they were before the Great Recession. Without the pernicious effect of hysteresis, there could be over 12 million more employed Americans today. |
| JEL: | N12 J60 E32 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2015-02&r=his |
| By: | Albanesi, Stefania (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Olivetti, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Maternal mortality was the second-leading cause of death for women in childbearing years up until the mid-1930s in the United States. For each death, twenty times as many mothers were estimated to suffer pregnancy-related conditions, often leading to severe and prolonged disablement. Poor maternal health made it particularly hard for mothers to engage in market work. Between 1930 and 1960, there was a remarkable reduction in maternal mortality and morbidity, thanks to medical advances. We argue that these medical advances, by enabling women to reconcile work and motherhood, were essential for the joint rise in married women’s labor force participation and fertility over this period. We also show that the diffusion of infant formula played an important auxiliary role. |
| Keywords: | maternal health; labor force participation |
| JEL: | I00 J00 J19 J21 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:720&r=his |
| By: | CASTANEDA DOWER, Paul (Center for the Study of Diversity and Social Interactions, New Economic School, Russia); GINSBURGH, Victor (Université Libre de Bruxelles, ECARES, Brussels; Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium; Center for the Study of Diversity and Social Interactions, New Economic School, Russia); WEBER, Shlomo (Southern Methodist University, Dallas, USA; Center for the Study of Diversity and Social Interactions, New Economic School, Russia) |
| Abstract: | Polarization measures, that are used in examining the empirical relationship between ethnic divisions and violent conflict, heavily rely on mechanisms of group identification and often use somewhat arbitrary divisions of a society into ethnic groups. In this paper we construct two new measures of polarization, one that accounts for differences in linguistic policies across localities during the colonial era and one that accounts for the differences over time and across localities in the experience of violence throughout the conflict episode. By examining the protracted war in Sri Lanka and applying these indices (and their combination) to a data set describing victims of the civil conflict by district and year, we are able to better identify the effect of ethnolinguistic polarization on the civil conflict in the country. We find that, for each of our polarization indices, there is a positive effect on the conflict. The historical underpinnings of our indices allow us to demonstrate in a quantitative and concrete way the relevance of historical processes for understanding episodes of civil conflict. |
| Keywords: | conflict, polarization, Sri Lanka, colonial legacy, linguistic disenfranchisement |
| JEL: | O15 D74 F54 |
| Date: | 2014–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2014048&r=his |
| By: | Brunt, Liam |
| Abstract: | We estimate a time series model of weather shocks on English wheat yields for the early nineteenth century and use it to predict weather effects on yield levels from 1697 to 1871. This reveals that yields in the 1690s were depressed by unusually poor weather; and those in the late 1850s were inflated by unusually good weather. This has led researchers to overestimate the underlying growth of yields over the period by perhaps 50 per cent. Correcting for this effect would largely reconcile the conflicting primal and dual estimates of productivity growth over the period. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; productivity; weather |
| JEL: | N5 O3 Q1 Q2 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10530&r=his |
| By: | Anastasia V. Yastrebtseva (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers an analysis of the public education project proposed by Nicolas de Condorcet (1743-1794) which appeared to be too modern for the late XVIII century but extremely vital for the last three decades of XIX century. His ideas were taken and made foundation for the reforms proposed by Jules Ferry and Ferdinand Buisson, whose names are traditionally linked with the formation of the “republican school” in France. |
| Keywords: | enlightenment, public education, republicanism, school, equality, social progress |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:94hum2015&r=his |
| By: | Cedrini, Mario; Fontana, Magda (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | There is considerable discussion on the so-called “mainstream pluralism”, which stems from the growth and coexistence of new research programs in economics that significantly deviate from the neoclassical core. Other disciplines have actively contributed to the birth of such programs, that are carried on by different, often separated communities of researchers. Although “mainstream pluralism” is not the pluralism heterodox economists and students groups have sought for in the recent decades, its persistence over time might provide a possible precondition for the advent of pluralism in economics. While the literature tends to regard mainstream pluralism as a transitory state towards a new, post-neoclassical, mainstream, this paper contributes to the debate by bringing in a different perspective, focusing on economics’ fragmentation and the necessity of specialization. We adopt a “late Kuhnian” framework (derived from Kuhn’s late works on specialization), considering not scientific revolutions but specialization as key engine of progress in science, and interpret mainstream pluralism as the result of economics’ recent growth in size and dive rsity. To account for the necessity of specialization in economics, we employ Ronald Heiner’s work on the competence-difficulty gap, as well as the evidence offered in some recent studies about the impact of the “burden” of previously accumulated knowledge on innovative behaviour. After a bird’s eye view on the recent history of economics in relation to other disciplines (and an analysis of Herbert Gintis’s “unity of behavioral sciences” proposal as possible new mains tream), we discuss the possibility that today’s “mainstream pluralism” might persist over time. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:cesmep:201501&r=his |
| By: | Pavel V. Sokolov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article deals with the ways of approaching plagiarism in the early modern Europe, mostly in the writings of two Leipzig intellectuals, J. Thomasius and J. C. Schwartz. The phenomenon of plagiarism is treated not only as an instrument of “symbolic violence” and “policing force of knowledge” in the Republic of letters, but primarily as a point of intersection of different discourses of the erudite culture: jurisprudence, moral medicine, Ciceronian rhetoric, hermeneutics and simultaneously – as a touchstone revealing the various dimensions of rival models of scientific knowledge (Protestant Aristotelianism, Barock eruditism, enlightened rationalism) |
| Keywords: | plagiarism, history of humanities, melancholy, sociability |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:92hum2015&r=his |
| By: | Debdulal Mallick |
| Abstract: | We present the Phillips curve in Australia in the frequency domain and document an evolving pattern in its slope at low frequencies under different monetary policy regimes and labor market regulations. The RBA adopted monetary targeting in 1976 and inflation targeting in 1993. There were important changes in the labor relations during mid-1980s-mid-1990s. We document an upward sloping medium-run Phillips curve in the pre-1977 period, a downward sloping long-run Phillips curve during 1977-1993, and a flattened Phillips curve from 1993 onwards. Inflation lagged unemployment during the first period but led during the second period. The Phillips curve at business-cycle frequencies is downward sloping in all periods. The flattened Phillips curve is also observed in several industrialized countries that adopted inflation targeting. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve, Long-run, Business-cycle, Frequency, Spectral method |
| JEL: | E24 E31 E32 C49 |
| Date: | 2015–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dkn:econwp:eco_2015_7&r=his |
| By: | Arimoto, Yutaka; Kurosu, Satomi |
| Abstract: | In agricultural societies, adjusting land and labor according to changes of labor endowment that result from family life cycle events is premised on making full use of resources for each farming household and for the economy as a whole. This paper examines how and how well households in pre-modern Japan reallocated land and labor, using a population register covering 150 years from 1720–1870 for a village in the Tohoku region. We find that households reacted to equalize their production factors; land-scarce households tended to acquire or rent-in land and out-migrate their kin members, while land-abundant households tended to release or rent-out land, in-migrate kin members, or employ non-kin members. Estimates suggest that more than 80% of the surplus or deficit area of land was resolved if the household rented or "sold" land. We discuss a potential underlying mechanism; namely, that the village's collective responsibility for tax payment (murauke) motivated both individual households and the village as a whole to reallocate land and labor for the efficient use of resources. |
| Keywords: | Japan, Land tenure, Labor, Household, Rural societies, Economic history, Farmers, Land reallocation, Land-to-labor ratio, Factor equalization, Land market, Pre-modern Japan |
| JEL: | D13 N55 O13 Q12 R20 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper519&r=his |
| By: | Dora L. Costa; Matthew E. Kahn |
| Abstract: | In the late 19th Century, cities in Western Europe and the United States suffered from high levels of infectious disease. Over a 40 year period, there was a dramatic decline in infectious disease deaths in cities. As such objective progress in urban quality of life took place, how did the media report this trend? At that time newspapers were the major source of information educating urban households about the risks they faced. By constructing a unique panel data base, we find that news reports were positively associated with government announced typhoid mortality counts and the size of this effect actually grew after the local governments made large investments in public goods intended to reduce typhoid rates. News coverage was more responsive to unexpected increases in death rates than to unexpected decreases in death rates. Together, these facts suggest that consumers find bad news is more useful than good news. |
| JEL: | I19 L82 N31 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21073&r=his |
| By: | Péter Õri; Levente Pakot (Hungarian Demographic Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | The MOSAIC project aimed to collect information on micro-census data preserved in different European countries and to build up an online database so as to open up new research possibilities on household structure and marriage patterns. The Hungarian MOSAIC sample is based on the data of the 1869 population census and consists of more than 6,000 households. We would like to better understand whether the different types of household formation can be linked to ethno-cultural variations, or if they are (at least partly) the results of special sorts of local possibilities of subsistence. |
| Keywords: | historical household structure, household patterns, census, 1869, Hungary |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nki:wpaper:20&r=his |
| By: | Brunnermeier, Markus K; Schnabel, Isabel |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews some of the most prominent asset price bubbles from the past 400 years and documents how central banks (or other institutions) reacted to those bubbles. The historical evidence suggests that the emergence of bubbles is often preceded or accompanied by an expansionary monetary policy, lending booms, capital inflows, and financial innovation or deregulation. We find that the severity of the economic crisis following the bursting of a bubble is less linked to the type of asset than to the financing of the bubble—crises are most severe when accompanied by a lending boom and high leverage of market players, and when financial institutions themselves are participating in the buying frenzy. Past experience also suggests that a purely passive “cleaning up the mess” stance toward the buildup of bubbles is, in many cases, costly. Monetary policy and macroprudential measures that lean against inflating bubbles can and sometimes have helped deflate bubbles and mitigate the associated economic crises. However, the correct implementation of such proactive policy approaches remains fraught with difficulties. |
| Keywords: | bubbles; capital flows; credit; macroprudential policy; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E44 E52 F34 G01 N10 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10528&r=his |
| By: | Mester, Loretta J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | It is a real pleasure for me to participate in this year’s Monetary Policy Forum. As an attendee of this event for the past several years, I have been very impressed with the organizers’ ability to choose a year in advance the topic that turns out to be the issue policymakers are grappling with at the time the forum rolls around. Once again, the organizers have been able to do this, with the important paper by Jim Hamilton, Ethan Harris, Jan Hatzius, and Ken West. Another example of the value of being forward looking when it comes to monetary policy! In the time I have, I will discuss some of the highlights of the paper – some of which the authors have laid out as “lessons learned” from history. I’ll focus on measurement and implications for policy. Taking their lead, I’ll present five of my own lessons spurred by reading their interesting paper. Of course, the views I’ll present today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. |
| Date: | 2015–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcsp:52&r=his |
| By: | Wuepper, David; Sauer, Johannes |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea15:201229&r=his |
| By: | Juan Carpio Elías |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a cross sectional study of some of the variables involved in major crops present in Seville's field during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. This represents a comprehensive treatment and undifferentiated from each of the crops. The principal element is constituted by a set of issues around social themes mostly, in which the human component becomes the main factor of historical research. This has made us focus on aspects such as the influence of the market, the so called "hunger for land" or the more or less direct relationship of human protagonists with the exploitation. The interest in issues such as socio-professional structure, participation in agricultural activities in different sectors of the population, or more specifically the relationships established between landlords and tenants is added. |
| Keywords: | holding, leasing, crops, agrarian activity, farmers |
| JEL: | Q10 Q15 R14 R19 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:seh:wpaper:1501&r=his |
| By: | Jason Barr; Fred Smith; Sayali Kulkarni |
| Abstract: | Using vacant land sales, we construct a land value index for Manhattan from 1950 to 2013. We find three major cycles (1950 to 1977, 1977 to 1993, and 1993 to 2007), with land values reaching their nadir in 1977, two years after the city’s fiscal crises. Overall, we find the average annual real growth rate to be 5.1%. Since 1993, land prices have risen quite dramatically, and much faster than population or employment growth, at an average annual rate of 15.8%, suggesting that barriers to entry in real estate development are causing prices to rise faster than other measures of local well-being. Further, we estimate the entire amount of developable land on Manhattan to be worth approximately $825 billion. This would suggest an average annual return of 6.3% since the island was first inhabited by Dutch settlers in 1626. |
| Keywords: | Land Values, Manhattan, Price Index |
| JEL: | R1 N9 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:run:wpaper:2015-002&r=his |
| By: | Luca Zamparelli (Sapienza, University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of wealth distribution between workers and capitalists. It shows that under competitive conditions, and when factors elasticity of substitution is high enough to ensure endogenous growth, capitalists' share of total wealth asymptotically tends to one if they have a higher propensity to save than workers. It is also shown that a tax on capital income shifts wealth distribution in workers' favor and makes any level of wealth concentration feasible. |
| Keywords: | Wealth distribution, elasticity of substitution, Pasinetti two-class equilibrium, Piketty |
| JEL: | E12 E13 E25 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:1/15&r=his |
| By: | Dean Baker |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the potential impact of the Federal Reserve Board’s decision on interest rates on the budget deficit. The first part recounts the history of the 1990s surplus, correcting the widely held misunderstanding that this surplus was achieved by the Clinton administration’s tax increases and spending cuts. The second part examines the direct and indirect impact of Fed rate hikes on the federal budget deficit. The third part examines the impact of Fed rate hikes on state budgets. |
| Keywords: | economic policy, Bush administration, George W. Bush, dollar, housing bubble, trade deficit |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2015-08&r=his |
| By: | Knowles, John (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | Low sex ratios are often equated with unfavorable marriage prospects for women, but in France after World War 1, the marriage probability of single females rose 50%, despite a massive drop in the male/female ratio. We conjecture that the war-time birth-rate bust induced an abnormal postwar abundance of singles with relatively high marriage propensities. We compute the equilibrium response, in a life-cycle matching model, of marriage hazards to war-time fertility and male-mortality shocks. Our results implicate two powerful forces: an abnormal abundance of marriageable men, and increased gains from marriage due to post-war pro-natalism. |
| Keywords: | Family Economics; Household Formation; Marriage; Fertility. |
| JEL: | D10 E13 J12 J13 O11 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2015-007&r=his |
| By: | Mikhail V. Antonov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article explains the philosophical sources of contemporary Russian conservative philosophy, which is blended with exceptionalism, the Westphalian conception of sovereignty, the negation of the universality of human rights, and which is based on the positivist precepts of the prevailing legal thinking in Russia. This conservative ideology is not new, as similar conceptions have been developed in Russian intellectual history in the past. |
| Keywords: | neo-conservatism, sovereignty, human rights, Russia and the European Union, constitution, legitimacy, binding force of law, Russian legal philosophy |
| JEL: | K10 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:48/law/2015&r=his |
| By: | Oleh Havrylyshyn |
| Abstract: | The first aim of this paper is to describe the main developments in the Ukrainian economy since its independence in 1991, focusing on the evolution of output, and the path of economic reforms — that is, to simply show what happened. The bottom line on that is well known: Ukraine’s economy performed very poorly, and its reforms moved quite slowly, lagging behind most of Central Europe and the Baltic, and even behind some FSU (Former Soviet Union) countries. This first task is a relatively easy one, though some measurement issues do need discussion. In comparison, the second aim — explaining why it happened, identifying the explanatory, causal factors — is much more difficult and contentious. Indeed, causation here means two dynamics: the relationship between performance and reform pace, and the underlying determinants of the slow reforms. The paper’s main effort will be to argue and present evidence that the poor economic performance is primarily due to the late and slow start on economic reforms. However, it only begins to point to the explanations for slow reforms and suggest a modeling approach to analyze this econometrically in future work. Contents of this publication were first presented by Oleh Havrylyshyn during the 135th mBank-CASE Seminar "A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little". / Niniejsze opracowanie ma na celu opisaæ g³ówne zmiany, jakie zasz³y w ukraiñskiej gospodarce od momentu odzyskania niepodleg³oœci w 1991 roku, równoczeœnie zwracaj¹c uwagê na rozwój produkcji i œcie¿ki reform gospodarczych. Dobrze znanym faktem jest, i¿ gospodarka Ukrainy funkcjonowa³a bardzo s³abo, a proces jej reformowania przebiega³ doœæ powoli, znacznie wolniej ni¿ w wiêkszoœci krajów Europy Œrodkowej i pañstw Ba³tyckich, a nawet niektórych krajów by³ego Zwi¹zku Radzieckiego. Kolejnym, o wiele bardziej problematycznym i kontrowersyjnym celem opracowania jest wyjaœnienie, dlaczego tak siê sta³o. W tym przypadku zwi¹zek przyczynowy powi¹zany jest z dwoma relacjami: zale¿noœci¹ miêdzy wydajnoœci¹ gospodarki i tempem reform, oraz czynnikami bêd¹cymi przyczyn¹ wolnego tempa reform. Najwa¿niejszym celem niniejszej pracy jest natomiast wykazanie oraz udowodnienie, ¿e s³abe wyniki gospodarcze s¹ przede wszystkim wynikiem póŸnego rozpoczêcia procesu reform oraz ich wolnego tempa. Jest ona jednak jedynie wstêpem do pe³nej analizy przyczyn opiesza³oœci we wprowadzaniu zmian oraz propozycja sposobów zastosowania metod ekonometrycznych do zbadania tego problemu w przysz³oœci. Treœæ Zeszytu zosta³a po raz pierwszy zaprezentowana przez Oleha Havrylyshyna podczas 135. Seminarium mBank-CASE: "Æwieræ wieku ukraiñskich reform: za ma³o, za póŸno i zbyt wolno". |
| Keywords: | banking and finance, competition, financial services, Ukraine, economic growth, economic development |
| JEL: | F5 P2 P26 P21 D02 E02 G2 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:bresem:0135&r=his |
| By: | Richard Arena (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, France; GREDEG CNRS); Lauren Larrouy (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, France; GREDEG CNRS) |
| Abstract: | In this contribution we relate the respective works of two important economists, Friedrich von Hayek and Michael Bacharach, namely one of the main intellectual leaders of the Austrian Schools and one of the most original game theorists. Hayek and Bacharach are two authors - few in number – who do not conceive that economic analysis could be built without the help of psychology. They both considered that subjective perceptions of the real world provide the first stage of decision processes and that, within this stage, psychological factors played a fundamental role. Therefore, they both proposed how perceptions, economic rationality and social coordination could be combined. However economists who really accept to take psychology into account often face new difficulties. The incorporation of subjectivity in economic behaviour can make much more complex the analysis of economic and social coordination. To overtake these new difficulties we will see that both Hayek and Bacharach integrate a specific approach to human cognition and resort to an evolutionary explanation of social coordination. This is the main message we deliver in this contribution. |
| Keywords: | Austrian economic theory, game theory, cognitive psychology, subjectivism, social coordination |
| JEL: | B21 B40 B53 C72 D01 D11 D50 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2015-15&r=his |
| By: | Nicholas Oulton; Gavin Wallis |
| Abstract: | This paper presents annual estimates of fixed capital stocks and capital services for the United Kingdom, 1950-2013, for the whole economy and for the market sector. Our estimates cover eight asset types (structures, machinery, vehicles, computers, purchased software, own-account software, mineral exploration and artistic originals) and also a ninth, R&D, from 1981 to 2013. We compare the effect on the estimates of capital services of using either an exogenous (ex post) rate of return or an endogenous one. The latter uses a model which allows for ex ante risk: firms' expectations may not be satisfied so the realised rate of return may not be equalised across assets. We see how much the inclusion of R&D matters. We also look at what has happened to capital intensity (capital services per hour worked) in the Great Recession, a period when labour productivity fell in the UK. And we consider the evolution of the aggregate depreciation rate and of capital consumption as a proportion of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Capital services, capital stocks, rate of return, ex post, hybrid |
| JEL: | E22 E23 D24 O47 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1342&r=his |
| By: | Krishanu Karmakar; Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (International Center for Public Policy. Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | A substantial theoretical and empirical literature has developed to addresses the advantages and perils of tax competition and how far it may be desirable to advance tax harmonization. The basic idea of the early literature was that internationally mobile capital moves from countries with higher rates of corporate taxation to lower rate countries. This limits the ability of the governments to tax capital and tend to reduce tax revenue of the government. Subsequent research has extended the basic model of tax competition by incorporating several important facets and qualifications to better reflect the real world. These studies have reached conclusions which are either starkly different from the early literature or have added important qualification to those. The principle theme of these new conclusions is that tax competition need not be as harmful as portrayed earlier. In the article we survey the extant theoretical literature on tax competition and tax harmonization and try to understand what lessons policy makers can learn from it. |
| Date: | 2014–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper1431&r=his |
| By: | Sau, Lino (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | The storm that has rocked our world has opened an interesting debate among economists and policy makers concerning with the need of a new international monetary and financial architecture. The monetary and financial regime that has been in force since the collapse of Bretton Woods (B-W), encourages indeed the persistence of unsustainable dynamics which spawn increasingly serious crises and it is unable of imparting an acceptable macro-economic discipline device to the world's economy. It became apparent that the global role of a key currency along with the deregulation of financial markets (neo-liberal paradigm) have acted as underlying conditions for the US financial crisis up to present situation and the following contagion to Europe. In this paper I point out the inadequacy of the institutional arrangements underlying the international monetary and financial regimes and I outline the relevance to the current debate of Keynes original plan, suggested rightly 70 years ago, that never born. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:cesmep:201403&r=his |
| By: | Florian Ploeckl (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | Information exchange is a necessary prerequisite for economic exchange over space. This relationship implies that information exchange data corresponds to the location of economic activity and therefore also of population. Building on this relationship we use postal data to analyse the spatial structure of the population distribution in the German Empire of 1871. In particular we utilize local volume data of a number of postal information transmission services and a New Economic Geography model to create two index measures, Information Intensity and Amenity. These variables respectively influence the two mechanisms behind the urban population distribution, namely agglomeration forces and location endowments. By testing the influence of actual location characteristics on these indices we identify which location factors mattered for the population distribution and show that a number of characteristics worked through both mechanisms. The model is then used to determine counterfactual population distributions, which demonstrate the relative importance of particular factors, most notably the railroad whose removal shows a 34% lower urban population. A data set of large locations for the years 1877 to 1895 shows that market access increases drove the magnitude of the increase in urban population, while endowment changes shaped their relative pattern. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2015-12&r=his |
| By: | Lauren Larrouy (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, France; GREDEG CNRS) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this contribution is to illustrate how both Schelling and Bacharach’s methodologies can help scholars bring a new approach to behavioral game theory in which the nature of usual standard methodological individualism is insufficiently questioned. I aim to show that both Schelling and Bacharach question the nature of interactive rationality. They provide original insight concerning (i) the conditions of possibility of the existence of determinate solutions and (ii) the resolution process of games. Furthermore, their questioning of the methodological implications of the well-known trio of standard game theory (common knowledge, the transparency of reasons and the reduction of "strategic uncertainty" to "physical uncertainty") offers some ideas on how to build an alternative theory of games. As forerunners, they open an ongoing research program which can still be a fruitful source of methodological innovation regarding interactive rationality and its collective determinants. |
| Keywords: | game theory, interactive rationality, framing, focal point, team reasoning, methodological individualism |
| JEL: | B21 B41 C72 D03 D79 D81 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2015-14&r=his |
| By: | Cooper, Richard N. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:faseco:14352638&r=his |