nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2015‒02‒16
28 papers chosen by

  1. Latin American Inequality: Colonial Origins, Commodity Booms, or a Missed 20th Century Leveling? By Jeffrey G. Williamson
  2. Urbanization in China, ca. 1100–1900 By XuYi; Bas van Leeuwen; Jan Luiten van Zanden
  3. Elite Influence? Religion, Economics, and the Rise of the Nazis By Spenkuch, Jörg; Tillmann, Philipp
  4. Monopoly Power in the Eighteenth Century British Book Trade: By David Fielding; Shef Rogers
  5. "Is Industrialization Conducive to Long-Run Prosperity?" By Raphael Franck; Oded Galor
  6. Is Africa Different? Historical Conflict and State Development By James Fenske; Mark Dinecco; Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato
  7. Economic inequality and poverty in the very long run: The case of the Florentine State By Guido Alfani; Francesco Ammannati
  8. Muy tarde pero rentables: Los ferrocarriles en Colombia durante el período 1920-1950 By Adolfo Meisel Roca; María Teresa Ramírez G.; Juliana Jaramillo E.
  9. Long Lasting Differences in Civic Capital: Evidence from a Unique Immigration Event in Italy By Bracco, Emanuele; De Paola, Maria; Green, Colin P.
  10. Elites and Bank-Based Finance By Buck, Florian; Hildebrand, Nikolaus
  11. Reviving trade routes: evidence from the Maputo Corridor By Sandra Sequeira; Olivier Hartmann; Charles Kunaka
  12. The Efficiency of Private E-Money-Like Systems: The U.S. Experience with National Bank Notes By Warren E. Weber
  13. Education Promoted Secularization By Nagler, Markus; Becker, Sascha O.; Woessmann, Ludger
  14. History and the sizes of cities By Bleakley, Hoyt; Lin, Jeffrey
  15. Uruguay and the First Globalization. On the accuracy of export performance, 1870-1913 By Nicolás Bonino-Gayoso; Antonio Tena Junguito; Henry Willebald
  16. Capital and Wealth in the 21st Century By David N. Weil
  17. Creating "Paradise of the Pacific": How Tourism Began in Hawaii By James Mak
  18. Cities and Ideas By Mikko Packalen; Jay Bhattacharya
  19. War-Time Destruction and the Persistence of Economic Activity By Glocker, Daniela; Sturm, Daniel
  20. Drifts, Volatilities and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century By Wang, Mu-Chun; Amir Ahmadi, Pooyan; Matthes, Christian
  21. Distributional Impact of Commodity Price Shocks: Australia over a Century By Sambit Bhattacharyya; Jeffrey G. Williamson
  22. Climatic Conditions and Productivity : An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England By Stéphane Auray; Aurélien Eyquem; Frédéric Jouneau-Sion
  23. Rural and historical tourism in Dobrogea By Sima, Elena
  24. Understanding Financial Instability: Minsky Versus the Austrians By Van den Hauwe, Ludwig
  25. The Rise of Market-Capitalism and the Roots of Anti-American Terrorism By Meierrieks, Daniel; Krieger, Tim
  26. Crecimiento económico y capital humano: Un análisis de cointegración para Colombia en el periodo 1960 – 2012 By Jonny Castro Tapias
  27. Social mobility and mortality in southern Sweden (1815–1910) By Paolo Emilio Cardone
  28. Occupational Structure in Egypt in 1848-1996 By Saleh, Mohamed

  1. By: Jeffrey G. Williamson
    Abstract: Most analysts of the modern Latin American economy have held the pessimistic belief in historical persistence -- they believe that Latin America has always had very high levels of inequality, and that it’s the Iberian colonists’ fault. Thus, modern analysts see today a more unequal Latin America compared with Asia and most rich post-industrial nations and assume that this must always have been true. Indeed, some have argued that high inequality appeared very early in the post-conquest Americas, and that this fact supported rent-seeking and anti-growth institutions which help explain the disappointing growth performance we observe there even today. The recent leveling of inequality in the region since the 1990s seems to have done little to erode that pessimism. It is important, therefore, to stress that this alleged persistence is based on an historical literature which has made little or no effort to be comparative, and it matters. Compared with the rest of the world, inequality was not high in the century following 1492, and it was not even high in the post-independence decades just prior Latin America’s belle époque and start with industrialization. It only became high during the commodity boom 1870-1913, by the end of which it had joined the rich country unequal club that included the US and the UK. Latin America only became relatively high between 1913 and the 1970s when it missed the Great Egalitarian Leveling which took place almost everywhere else. That Latin American inequality has its roots in its colonial past is a myth.
    JEL: D3 N16 N36 O15
    Date: 2015–01
  2. By: XuYi; Bas van Leeuwen; Jan Luiten van Zanden
    Abstract: This paper presents new estimates of the development of the urban population andthe urbanization ratio for the period spanning the Song and late Qing dynasties. Urbanizationis viewed, as in much of the economic historical literature on the topic, as an indirectindicator of economic development and structural change. The development of the urbansystem can therefore tell us a lot about long-term trends in the Chinese economy between1100 and 1900. During the Song the level of urbanization was high, also by internationalstandards – the capital cities of the Song were probably the largest cities in the world. This remained so until the late Ming, but during the Qing there was a downward trend in the levelof urbanization from 11–12% to 7% in the late 18th century, a level at which it remained untilthe early 1900s. In our paper we analyse the role that socio–political and economic causesplayed in this decline, such as the changing character of the Chinese state, the limited impactof overseas trade on the urban system, and the apparent absence of the dynamic economiceffects that were characteristic for the European urban system.
    Keywords: China, Urbanization, Song Dynasty, Ming dynasty, Qing dynasty, cities, commercialization.
    Date: 2015–02
  3. By: Spenkuch, Jörg; Tillmann, Philipp
    Abstract: Adolf Hitler's seizure of power was one of the most consequential events of the twentieth century. Yet, our understanding of which factors fueled the astonishing rise of the Nazis remains highly incomplete. This paper shows that religion played an important role in the Nazi party's electoral success---dwarfing all available socio-economic variables. To obtain the first causal estimates we exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the geographic distribution of Catholics and Protestants due to a peace treaty in the sixteenth century. Even after allowing for sizeable violations of the exclusion restriction, the evidence indicates that Catholics were significantly less likely to vote for the Nazi Party than Protestants. Consistent with the historical record, our results are most naturally rationalized by a model in which the Catholic Church leaned on believers to vote for the democratic Zentrum Party, whereas the Protestant Church remained politically neutral.
    JEL: Z12 N34 D72
    Date: 2014
  4. By: David Fielding (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand); Shef Rogers (Department of English and Linguistics, University of Otago, New Zealand)
    Abstract: In conventional wisdom, the reform of British copyright law during the eighteenth century brought an end to the monopoly on the sale of books held by the Stationers’ Company, and the resulting competition was one of the driving forces behind the expansion of British book production during the Enlightenment. In this paper, we analyze a new dataset on eighteenth century book prices and author payments, showing that the legal reform brought about only a temporary increase in competition. The data suggest that by the end of the century, informal collusion between publishers had replaced the legal monopoly powers in place at the beginning of the century. The monopoly power of retailers is not so easily undermined.
    Keywords: book trade; publishing; copyright; retail monopoly
    JEL: D42 L12 N83 Z11
    Date: 2014–12
  5. By: Raphael Franck; Oded Galor
    Abstract: This research explores the long-run effect of industrialization on the process of development. In contrast to conventional wisdom that views industrial development as a catalyst for economic growth, highlighting its persistent effect on economic prosperity, the study establishes that while the adoption of industrial technology was initially conducive to economic development, it has had a detrimental effect on standards of living in the long-run. Exploiting exogenous source of regional variation in the adoption of steam engines during the French industrial revolution, the research establishes that regions which industrialized earlier experienced an increase in literacy rates more swiftly and generated higher income per capita in the subsequent decades. Nevertheless, early industrialization had an adverse effect on income per capita, employment and equality by the turn of the 21st century. This adverse effect reflects neither higher unionization and wage rates nor trade protection, but rather underinvestment in human capital and lower employment in skilled-intensive occupations. These findings suggest that the characteristics that permitted the onset of industrialization, rather than the adoption of industrial technology per se, have been the source of prosperity among the currently developed economies that experienced an early industrialization.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Industrialization, Steam Engine bounded rationality.
    Date: 2015
  6. By: James Fenske; Mark Dinecco; Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato
    Abstract: We show that the long-run consequences of historical warfare are different for Sub-Saharan Africa than for the rest of the Old World.  We identify the locations of over 1,750 conflicts in Africa, Asia, and Europe from 1400 to 1799.  We find that historical warfare predicts greater state capacity today across the Old World, including in Sub-Saharan Africa.  There is no significant correlation between historical warfare and current civil conflicts across the rest of the Old World.  However, this correlation is strong and positive in Sub-Saharan Africa.  Thus, while a history of conflict predicts higher per capita GDP for the rest of the Old World, its positive consequence is overturned for Sub-Saharan Africa.
    Date: 2014–12–14
  7. By: Guido Alfani; Francesco Ammannati
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of economic inequality in the Florentine State (Tuscany) from the late fourteenth to the late eighteenth century. Regional studies of this kind are rare, and this is only the second-ever attempt at covering such a long period. Consistent with recent research conducted on other European areas, during the Early Modern period we find clear indications of a tendency for economic inequality to grow continually, a finding that for Tuscany cannot be explained as the consequence of economic growth. Furthermore, the exceptionally old sources we use allow us to demonstrate that a phase of declining inequality, lasting about one century, was triggered by the Black Death from 1348 to 1349. This finding challenges earlier scholarship and significantly alters our understanding of the economic consequences of the Black Death. We also take into account other important topics, such as the change over time of the patrimony of the Church and of poverty. Particular attention is paid to the latter, and estimates of the prevalence of the poor in time and space are provided and discussed, also taking into account the definition and perception of the poor.
    Keywords: Economic inequality; social inequality; wealth concentration; middle ages; early modern period; Tuscany; Florentine State; Italy; plague; Black Death; Church property; poverty; Florence; Prato; Arezzo; San Gimignano
    Date: 2014–12
  8. By: Adolfo Meisel Roca; María Teresa Ramírez G.; Juliana Jaramillo E.
    Abstract: Durante la década de los años veinte, la economía colombiana experimentó la mayor tasa de crecimiento de su historia. Las reformas económicas efectuadas en 1923 (el banco central, el patrón oro, la legislación bancaria, la reorganización fiscal), el auge del café, y la afluencia sin precedentes de capital extranjero fueron las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de este éxito. En esa década, el país recibió 25 millones de dólares de los Estados Unidos por concepto de indemnización por su papel en la separación de Panamá de Colombia. Además, las reformas y el crecimiento de las exportaciones de café permitieron un enorme aumento de los préstamos extranjeros. El valor de los préstamos obtenidos hasta 1929 ascendió a 257 millones de dólares. Tales fondos se utilizaron principalmente para la construcción de infraestructura pública, en particular los ferrocarriles. Aproximadamente el 45% de los préstamos extranjeros durante ese período fueron invertidos en la construcción de ferrocarriles. Dieciséis de los 25 millones de dólares recibidos por concepto de reparación por Panamá también se invirtieron en ferrocarriles. En el presente estudio, se estima la tasa global de retorno y las tasas internas de retorno para cada uno de los ferrocarriles existente en esa época. Para estos cálculos, se tiene en cuenta que Colombia en realidad pagó sólo el 85% de los préstamos que obtuvo en la década de los años veinte, debido a los efectos de la Gran Depresión y la suspensión de pagos de la deuda externa. Las tasas de rendimiento de los ferrocarriles construidos y ampliados en la década de los años veinte fueron comparables a las obtenidas por los países europeos en el siglo XIX.******ABSTRACT: During the 1920s, the Colombian economy experienced the highest rate of growth in its history. The economic reforms of 1923 (the central bank, gold standard, banking legislation, fiscal reorganization), the coffee boom, and the unprecedented influx of foreign capital were the driving forces behind this success. During that decade, the country received 25 million dollars from the United States as compensation for its role in the separation of Panama from Colombia. Those reforms and the growth in coffee exports also allowed for an enormous increase in foreign loans. The value of the loans obtained by 1929 came to 257 million dollars. Those funds were used mainly to build much needed public infrastructure, particularly railroads. Approximately 45% of the foreign loans during that period were invested in railroad construction. Additionally, 16 of the 25 million dollars received as reparation for Panama were invested in railroads. In this paper, we estimate the global rate of return and the internal rates of return on individual railroads. For those calculations, we consider that Colombia ended up paying only around 85% of the loans obtained in the 1920s’s, owing to the effects of the Great Depression and the suspension of foreign debt payments . The rates of return on the railroads constructed and extended in the 1920´s are comparable to those obtained for European countries in the nineteenth century.
    Keywords: tasa de rentabilidad, inversión, ferrocarriles, deuda externa, Colombia
    JEL: N26 N76 O16 O1
    Date: 2014–10–01
  9. By: Bracco, Emanuele (Lancaster University); De Paola, Maria (University of Calabria); Green, Colin P. (Lancaster University)
    Abstract: A range of evidence exists demonstrating that social capital is associated with a number of important economic outcomes such as economic growth, trade and crime. A recent literature goes further to illustrate how historical events and variation can lead to the development of differing and consequential social norms. This paper examines the related questions of how persistent initial variations in social capital are, and the extent to which immigrant groups, do or do not converge to the cultural and social norms of their recipient country by examining a unique and geographically concentrated immigration event in 16th century Italy. We demonstrate that despite the substantial time since migration these communities still display different behaviour consistent with higher civic capital than other comparable Italian communities. Moreover, we demonstrate that this difference does not appear to have changed over the last 70 years. For instance, differences in voter turnout apparent in the late 1940s remain in the 21st century. This latter finding has implications for our view of the likelihood of assimilation of immigrant groups to local norms, particularly in cases of large-scale migration.
    Keywords: social capital, electoral turnout, migration, persistence
    JEL: A13 D72 P16
    Date: 2015–01
  10. By: Buck, Florian; Hildebrand, Nikolaus
    Abstract: Why do some economic systems depend on bank financing while others rely on capital markets and bond financing? We propose a political economy model in which elites favor a bank-based system, which increases their rents due to reduced competition. If suffrage is restricted to the elite, this will result in poor corporate control rights and more reliance on banks that offer substitute mechanisms of corporate governance. The lack of legal rights in history triggers path dependencies and explains the dominance of banks until this day. We test the model's predictions by tracking the emergence and evolution of the bank-based financial system in Germany since the 19th century.
    JEL: D72 O16 P16
    Date: 2014
  11. By: Sandra Sequeira; Olivier Hartmann; Charles Kunaka
    Abstract: This new SSATP discussion paper reviews the experience of an apparently successful corridor to help understand optimal mix and trade-offs in reviving historical trade route. The Maputo Corridor, which had fallen in disuse during the troubled period in Mozambique, is widely regarded as one the successful corridors. It has experienced tremendous growth, attracted large industrial and transport investments, and strengthened ties between neighboring countries over its almost two decade long history since the end of the apartheid era in South Africa and the Peace Agreement in Mozambique. What makes the Maputo Corridor ideal as a source of learning lessons is that it has many contrasting facets—it is an established trade route with a development focus, as well as an hinterland corridor, a mining and resource-based corridor—whereas other corridors may have a far less diverse nature. The lessons that can be learnt from the Maputo Corridor thus have relevance for a wider variety of corridors, and can help regional economic communities, countries, corridor users and development partners to better focus their corridor strategies to maximize economic growth
    JEL: L91 L96
    Date: 2014–11
  12. By: Warren E. Weber
    Abstract: Beginning in 1864, in the United States notes of national banks were the predominant medium of exchange. Each national bank issued its own notes. E-money shares many of the characteristics of these bank notes. This paper describes some lessons relevant to e-money from the U.S. experience with national bank notes. It examines historical evidence on how well the bank notes - a privately-issued currency system with multiple issuers - functioned with respect to ease of transacting, counterfeiting, safety, overissuance and par exchange (a uniform currency). It finds that bank notes made transacting easier and were not subject to overissuance. National bank notes were perfectly safe because they were insured by the federal government. Further, national bank notes were a uniform currency. Notes of different banks traded at par with each other and with greenbacks. This paper describes the mechanism that was put in place to achieve uniformity. The U.S. experience with national bank notes suggests that a privately-issued e-money system can operate efficiently but will require government intervention, regulation, and supervision to minimize counterfeiting, promote safety and provide the mechanism necessary for different media of exchange to exchange at par with each other.
    Keywords: Bank notes, E-Money, Financial services
    JEL: E41 E42 E58
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Nagler, Markus; Becker, Sascha O.; Woessmann, Ludger
    Abstract: Why did substantial parts of Europe abandon the institutionalized churches around 1900? Empirical studies using modern data mostly contradict the traditional view that education was a leading source of the seismic social phenomenon of secularization. We construct a unique panel dataset of advanced-school enrollment and Protestant church attendance in German cities between 1890 and 1930. Our cross-sectional estimates replicate a positive association. By contrast, in panel models where fixed effects account for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity, education but not income or urbanization is negatively related to church attendance. In panel models with lagged explanatory variables, educational expansion precedes reduced church attendance.
    JEL: Z12 N33 I20
    Date: 2014
  14. By: Bleakley, Hoyt (University of Michigan); Lin, Jeffrey (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: We contrast evidence of urban path dependence with efforts to analyze calibrated models of city sizes. Recent evidence of persistent city sizes following the obsolescence of historical advantages suggests that path dependence cannot be understood as the medium-run effect of legacy capital but instead as the long-run effect of equilibrium selection. In contrast, a different, recent literature uses stylized models in which fundamentals uniquely determine city size. We show that a commonly used model is inconsistent with evidence of long-run persistence in city sizes and propose several modifications that might allow for multiplicity and thus historical path dependence.
    Keywords: Multiple equilibria; Locational fundamentals; Path dependence
    JEL: F12 N90 R12
    Date: 2015–01–12
  15. By: Nicolás Bonino-Gayoso; Antonio Tena Junguito; Henry Willebald
    Abstract: In order to understand Uruguayan long-run economic evolution it becomes crucial to interpret its export performance during the First Globalization. The lack of accuracy of official figures, especially official prices used, calls for an adjustment of Uruguayan exports series. We have used empirical evidence to test the accuracy of quantities and values of exports' records, first, according to import partners' records and, second, according to international market prices. Results show a general undervaluation of official export values during the period along with severe distortions in the registers caused by transit trade. We reconstructed new Uruguayan export f.o.b values and export price index, which present an export evolution more unstable and less dynamic than the one showed by its neighbor Argentina.
    Keywords: Bilateral trade , Accuracy indices , Exports , Uruguay , First Globalization
    JEL: F14 N76
    Date: 2015–01
  16. By: David N. Weil
    Abstract: In Capital in the 21st Century, Thomas Piketty uses the market value of tradeable assets to measure both productive capital and wealth. As a measure of wealth this is problematic because it ignores the value of human capital and transfer wealth, which have grown enormously over the last 300 years. Thus the constancy of the wealth/income ratio as portrayed in his data is an illusion. Further, the types of wealth that he does not measure are more equally distributed than tradeable assets. The approach also incorrectly identifies capital gains due to reduced discount rates as increases in the capital stock.
    JEL: D31 Y3
    Date: 2015–01
  17. By: James Mak (UHERO, University of Hawai‘i at Manoa)
    Abstract: This article recounts the early years of one of the most successful tourist destinations in the world, Hawaii, from about 1870 to 1940. Tourism began in Hawaii when faster and more predictable steamships replaced sailing vessels in trans-Pacific travel. Governments (international, national, and local) were influential in shaping the way Hawaii tourism developed, from government mail subsidies to steamship companies, local funding for tourism promotion, and America’s protective legislation on domestic shipping. Hawaii also reaped a windfall from its location at the crossroads of the major trade routes in the Pacific region. The article concludes with policy lessons.
    Date: 2015–02
  18. By: Mikko Packalen; Jay Bhattacharya
    Abstract: Faster technological progress has long been considered a key potential benefit of agglomeration. Physical proximity to others may help inventors adopt new ideas in their work by increasing awareness about which new ideas exist and by enhancing understanding of the properties and usefulness of new ideas through a vigorous debate on the ideas' merits (Marshall, 1920). We test a key empirical prediction of this theory: that inventions in large cities build on newer ideas than inventions in smaller cities. We analyze the idea inputs of nearly every US patent granted during 1836–2010. We find that a larger city size provided a considerable advantage in inventive activities during most of the 20th century but that in recent decades this advantage has eroded.
    JEL: O18 O31 O32 O33 R12
    Date: 2015–01
  19. By: Glocker, Daniela; Sturm, Daniel
    Abstract: A key prediction of a large class of theoretical models is that the location of economic activity is not necessarily determined by fundamentals. To test the empirical relevance of these ideas requires a natural experiment in which a large but ultimately temporary shock dislocates economic activity. Following Davis and Weinstein (2002) a number of papers have used war-time destruction as such a temporary shock. In this paper we revisit this debate and use the cities that were part of pre-war Germany and become part of Poland after the Second World War as a natural experiment. We show that also in this case cities recover surprisingly fast from the war-time shock despite heavy destruction and the expulsion of the entire population. Our results suggest that either the location and size of cities is indeed determined by fundamentals or that even heavily destroyed cities are rebuilt because the ruins contain valuable surviving structures. We provide suggestive qualitative evidence that the second interpretation is more likely correct.
    JEL: F14 F15 N74
    Date: 2014
  20. By: Wang, Mu-Chun; Amir Ahmadi, Pooyan; Matthes, Christian
    Abstract: How much have the dynamics of US time series and in the particular the transmission of innovations to monetary policy instruments changed over the last century? The answers to these questions that this paper gives are "A lot." and "Probably less than you think.", respectively. We use vector autoregression with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to tackle these question. In our analysis we use variables that both influenced monetary policy and in turn were influenced by monetary policy itself, including bond market data (the difference between long-term and short-term nominal interest rates) and the growth rate of money.
    JEL: E31 E52 E43
    Date: 2014
  21. By: Sambit Bhattacharyya; Jeffrey G. Williamson
    Abstract: This paper studies the distributional impact of commodity price shocks over both the short and very long run.  Using a GARCH model, we find that Australia experienced more volatility than many commodity exporting developing countries over the periods 1865-1940 and 1960-2007.  A single equation error correction model suggests that commodity price shocks increase the income share of the top 1, 0.05, and 0.01 percents in the short run.  The very top end of the income distribution benefits from commodity booms disproportionately more than ther est of the society.  The short run effect is mainly driven by wool and mining and not agricultural commodities.  A sustained increase in the price of renewables (wool ) reduces inequality whereas the same for non-renewable resources (minerals) increases inequality.  We expect that the initial distribution of land and mineral resources explains the asymmetric result.
    Keywords: commodity price shocks, commodity exporters, top incomes, inequality
    JEL: F14 F43 N17 O13
    Date: 2013–07–23
  22. By: Stéphane Auray (CREST-Ensai, ULCO (EQUIPPE), and CIRP´EE.); Aurélien Eyquem (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France); Frédéric Jouneau-Sion (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France)
    Abstract: In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) precipitations (resp. temperatures) enhance productivity. Further, temperatures also have non-linear effects on productivity : large temperature variations lower productivity. We perform counterfactual exercises and quantify the effects of large increases in temperatures on productivity, GDP and welfare.
    Keywords: Climatic conditions, TFP shocks, real wages, real rents
    JEL: C22 N13 O41 O47 Q54
    Date: 2014
  23. By: Sima, Elena
    Abstract: By its geographical location, the rural area from Dobrudgea has a diversified tourism potential, provided by the contrasting natural environmental factors, ranging from the oldest to the youngest relief units, natural protected areas, balneary resources and cultural, historical, religious sites, as well as multicultural local customs and traditions of the rural area. This potential can be used under various forms in the rural area: cultural tourism, historical tourism, religious tourism, ecotourism, fishing tourism or bird-watching tourism, as well as other kinds of rural tourism. By linking these tourism resources and tourism forms, tourism routes can result, which, together with the local customs, traditions and cuisine may contribute to the social and economic development of Dobrudgea’s rural area, through sustainable tourism as an alternative to seasonal seashore tourism.
    Keywords: sustainable tourism, rural area, economic development, Dobrudgea
    JEL: Q01 R11
    Date: 2014–11–20
  24. By: Van den Hauwe, Ludwig
    Abstract: In the wake of the Financial Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession several commentators have suggested that the analysis of financial instability provided by various strands of heterodox economics got it "right" and that mainstream economics got it "wrong". In this paper two variants of heterodox views about financial instability are compared critically: the views of the late Hyman P. Minsky on the one hand, and the theses of the Austrian School on the other. Indeed there seem to exist a number of prima facie similarities and analogies between Minsky’s approach to the study of financial instability and that of the Austrian School. In particular attention can be drawn to such elements as, among others, the following: (a) both theories are theories of the upper turning point; (b) both theories give due attention to institutional factors, in particular the role of banks and financial institutions; (c) both approaches reject mainstream static equilibrium theorizing; (d) both approaches adhere to a monetary theory of the business cycle and explain, in their respective ways, the non-neutrality and the endogeneity of money; (e) in both approaches the role of Knightian uncertainty is appreciated; (f) in both approaches an attempt is made to provide the theory of the business cycle with adequate micro-foundations as well as with price-theoretic foundations. At the same time it can be seen that these similarities and analogies are quite superficial. The most important differences between both approaches relate to (a) the fundamental causal analysis of business cycles and the role of the interest-rate mechanism; (b) the identification of the relevant institutional context; (b) the role of capital and capital theory; (c) the quite different appreciation of the role of liquidity and liquidity preference; (d) the link between uncertainty and institutional context and (e) the quite different remedies that are proposed by the two approaches. It is concluded that the apparent similarities between both approaches are superficial, while the divergences are profound and fundamental.
    Keywords: Financial Instability, Business Cycle, Minsky, Austrian School
    JEL: B50 B53 B59 E3 E30 E32
    Date: 2014–12–24
  25. By: Meierrieks, Daniel; Krieger, Tim
    Abstract: This contribution examines the role of market-capitalism in anti-American terrorism. It differentiates between level- and rate-of-change-effects associated with market-capitalist development and their respective relationship with anti-U.S. violence. While this contribution argues that higher levels of capitalist development consistent with the capitalist-peace literature coincide with less anti-American terrorism, it also suggests that the process of marketization has inflammatory effects on anti-American terrorism. Using panel data for 149 countries between 1970 and 2007, this contribution indeed finds support for these two hypotheses. The findings are further corroborated by system-level time-series evidence. Considering the findings, it is argued that a higher level of market-capitalism is associated with less anti-American terrorism by creating economic interdependencies and a convergence of pro-peace values and institutions. The destabilizing effects of the marketization process are argued to stem from the violent opposition of various anti-market interest groups to economic, politico-institutional and cultural change initiated by a transition towards a market economy. These interest groups deliberately target the U.S. as the main proponent of modern capitalism, globalization and modernity, where anti-American terrorism serves the purpose of consolidating their respective societal position by means of voicing dissent, rolling back pro-market reforms and limiting the perceived Americanization of their communities. The findings of this contribution suggest that the U.S. may ultimately become a less likely target of transnational terrorism through the establishment of market economies, but should not disregard the disruptive political, economic and cultural effects of the marketization process in non-capitalist societies.
    JEL: D74 O10 P10
    Date: 2014
  26. By: Jonny Castro Tapias
    Abstract: En este documento se busca determinar si el capital humano medido como años de escolaridad promedio, tiene un impacto positivo en el crecimiento económico en el largo plazo para el periodo 1950 – 2012, usando series de tiempo se busca determinar la relación de largo plazo entre el capital, medido como formación bruta de capital fijo, el capital humano y el producto interno bruto. Usando la técnica de cointegracion de Johansen (1988, 1991) y los modelos de corrección de errores (MCE). La estimación de los modelos de crecimiento económico han empleados variables macroeconómicas para determinar los componentes del crecimiento económico, partiendo del modelo neoclásico de (Solow, 1956), y teniendo en cuenta los postulados de Mankiw, Romer & Weil (1992). Los resultados muestran que de hecho existe un efecto positivo en el largo plazo entre la producción y el capital humano, pero se nota un impacto negativo en la innovación tecnológica, lo que sugiere que se debe tener políticas que incentiven la formación de la educación y la inversión para tener mejores rendimientos en el crecimiento económico en el largo plazo.
    JEL: C22 E24 I25 O47
    Date: 2014–12–05
  27. By: Paolo Emilio Cardone (Sapienza University of Rome)
    Abstract: The aim of this research project is to see how intra-social group mobility affected mortality patterns in Sweden; the project covers the transition from a preindustrial to an industrial society. According to previous studies (see Bengtsson 2010; Bengtsson and Van Poppel 2011; Bengtsson and Dribe 2011; Dribe, Helgertz, and Van de Putte 2013), social economical status (SES) did not substantially positively affect life expectancy in the Swedish population; rather, other variables, such as public health measures or education, were key factors. However, a new question has emerged for us: Is it possible that other socio-economic factors, such as intergenerational mobility, affected life expectancy? To answer this, we use a dataset between 1815 and 1910 from the Scanian Economic-Demographic Database (SEDD). The database is based on local population registers for five rural Scanian coast parishes (Hög, Kävlinge, Halmstad, Sireköpinge, and KÃ¥geröd). Analysis is based on three periods according to historical criterion (the preindustrial period: 1815–1869; the early industrial period: 1870–1894; and the first part of the breakthrough of industrialization: 1895–1910). In our study, we define intra-social mobility as the chances of an individual between ages 30 and 49 to experience a change of his SES according to SOCPO codification. SOCPO is composed of a five-category classification scheme. Our main reason for using it is that while it focuses on social power, it is also highly correlated with education and income. In addition, this classification can be used for both rural and industrial societies. Therefore, a Cox proportional hazard model will be applied to estimate the influence of social mobility, controlling for age and other possible determinant variables. We are going to estimate a model for each SOCPO category. This model includes social mobility status (a categorical variable in which 1 is when the individual experiences upward mobility and 0 otherwise), age, sex, year of birth, parish of residence, and position in the household. Thus, after these analyses, we expect to find a significant and positive relationship between social economic mobility and mortality.
    Date: 2014–11–13
  28. By: Saleh, Mohamed
    Date: 2015–01

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.