nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2015‒01‒03
38 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein's Econometrics. By Erich Pinzón Fuchs
  2. Sir W. Arthur Lewis By Berhanu Abegaz
  3. The Forest as a Resource. Conflicts in the Northern Sweden Wooded land in the 19th century By Ewa Axelsson
  4. Essays on historical banking By Dwarkasing, N.R.D.
  5. The Federal Reserve's Role: Actions Before, During, and After the 2008 Panic in the Historical Context of the Great Contraction By Michael D. Bordo
  6. Historical Legacy and Policy Effectiveness: the Long-Term Influence of pre-Unification Borders in Italy By Guido de Blasio; Giovanna D'Adda
  7. The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference By Galor, Oded; Özak, Ömer
  8. Central Bank Credibility, Reputation and Inflation Targeting in Historical Perspective By Michael Bordo; Pierre Siklos
  9. State dissolution, sovereign debt and default:Lessons from the UK and Ireland, 1920-1938 By Nathan Foley-Fisher; Eoin McLaughlin
  10. Gary Becker on the Quantity and Quality of Children By Doepke, Matthias
  11. Pierre Quesnay (1897-1937) from the League of Nations to the Franc Poincaré: Financial Discipline and Monetary Pragmatism By Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand; Dominique Torre
  12. Under the Thumb of History? Political Institutions and the Scope for Action By Banerjee, Abhijit; Duflo, Esther
  13. Going forward with the history of French management models and practices By Le Roux, Muriel; Godelier, Eric; Garel, Gilles; David, Albert
  14. Unified China; Divided Europe By Ko, Chiu Yu; Koyama, Mark; Sng, Tuan-Hwee
  15. The Geographical Origins of Early State Formation By Anastasia Litina
  16. Of Time and Space: Technological Spillovers among Patents and Unpatented Innovations during Early U.S. Industrialization By B. Zorina Khan
  17. Not Beautiful, not Just, not Virtuous; 'And It Doesn't Deliver the Goods'. Capitalism and “Fear of Goods” in Keynes's Thought. By Carabelli, Anna; Cedrini, Mario
  18. Predicting Winners in Civil Wars By Haber, Stephen H; Mitchener, Kris; Oosterlinck, Kim; Weidenmier, Marc
  19. From Riches to Rags, and Back? Institutional Change, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Argentina since the 1890s By Campos, Nauro F; Karanasos, Menelaos G.; Tan, Bin
  20. Creative Destruction: Chinese GDP per capita from the Han Dynasty to Modern Times By Kent Deng; Patrick Karl OÕBrien
  21. Dynamics of payments, conflict and economic activity : Case studies of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia By Geessien Lubberman-Schrotenboer, I.
  22. Credit Relationships and Business Bankruptcy During the Great Depression By Mary Eschelbach Hansen; Nicolas L. Ziebarth
  23. Structural evolutions and reforms of the French banking and financial system since the 1980s:Relationship with the legal process of European integration By Christophe Blot; Jerome Creel; Anne-Laure Delatte; Fabien Labondance; Sandrine Levasseur
  24. How Democracy could foster Economic Growth: The Last 200 Years By Carol S. Leonard; Daniel Shestakov; Konstantin Yanovskiy
  25. Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data By Valerie A. Ramey; Sarah Zubairy
  26. Ideation, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation By Link, Albert
  27. The fall of the elephant: Two decades of poverty increase in C.te d.Ivoire (1988-2008) By Cogneau, Denis; Houngbedji, Kenneth; Mesple-Somps, Sandrine
  28. Immigration & Ideas: What Did Russian Scientists 'Bring' to the US? By Ganguli, Ina
  29. Review of Ben S. Bernanke: The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis By Michael D. Bordo
  30. Control de Cambios y el Sistema de Cambios Múltiples en Uruguay: 1931-1959 By Ulises García Repetto
  31. Measuring the Effects of Decollectivization on China's Agricultural Growth: A Panel GMM Approach, 1970-1987 By Shengmin Sun; Qiang Chen
  32. Capital, richesse et croissance de la recherche empirique aux éclairages theoriques By Jean-Luc Gaffard
  33. Connection Between Technological Trajectory of the Coffee Sector and the Economic Growth of Brazilian Producing Regions By Patricia Turco; Ricardo Firetti; Flavia Bliska; Eder Pinatti; Antonio Bliska; Sergio Tôsto
  34. Intentos y fracasos de la conciliación política inter-faccional durante las guerras civiles entre unitarios y federales (1820-1829) By Ignacio Zubizarreta
  35. Shall We Keep Early Diers Alive? By A. Pinna
  36. Piketty’s laws with investment replacement and depreciation By van Schaik, A.B.T.M.
  37. Technology, Learning, and Long Run Economic Growth in Leading and Lagging Regions By Amit Batabyal; Peter Nijkamp
  38. The Economics of Secession – Analysing the economic impact of the collapse of the former Yugoslavia By Rodriguez-Pose, Andres; Stermsek, Marko

  1. By: Erich Pinzón Fuchs (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)
    Abstract: Lawrence R. Klein (1920-2013) played a major role in the construction and in the further dissemination of econometrics from the 1940s. Considered as one the main developers and practitioners of macroeconometrics, Klein's influence is reflected in his application of econometric modelling “to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies” for which he was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1980. The purpose of this paper is to give an account of Klein's image of econometrics focusing on his early period as an econometrician (1944-1950), and more specifically on his period as a Cowlesman (1944-1947). Independently of how short this period might appear, it contains a set of fundamental publications and events, which were decisive for Klein's conception of econometrics, and which formed Klein's unique way of doing econometrics. At least four features are worth mentioning, which characterise this uniqueness. First, Klein was the only Cowlesman who carried on the macroeconometric programme beyond the 1940s, even if the Cowles had already abandoned it. Second, his pluralistic approach in terms of economic theory allowed him not only to use the Walrasian framework appraised by the Cowles Commission and especially by T.C. Koopmans, but also the Marxian and Keynesian frameworks, enriching the process of model specification and motivating economists of different stripes to make use of the nascent econometrics. Third, Klein differentiated himself from the rigid methodology praised at Cowles; while the latter promoted the use of highly sophisticated methods of estimation, Klein was convinced that institutional reality and economic intuition would contribute more to econometrics than the sophistication of these statistical techniques. Last but not least, Klein never gave up what he thought was the political objective of econometrics: economic planning and social reform.
    Keywords: Economic epistemology, history of econometrics, history of macroeconometric modelling, pluralism in Econometrics, Lawrence R. Klein, Cowles Commission.
    JEL: B23 B31 B41
    Date: 2014–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:14080&r=his
  2. By: Berhanu Abegaz (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary)
    Abstract: Raised by school-teacher parents in the Caribbean island of St. Lucia and educated in St. Mary’s College there—a school that also produced poet Derek Walcott, the other Nobel Laureate of St. Lucia—Lewis began his studies and career at the London School of Economics (LSE). He subsequently held distinguished professorships at the universities of Manchester and Princeton. He also served as a senior economic advisor in West Africa in addition to administrative stints as Vice Chancellor of the University of the West Indies and as founding president of the Caribbean Development Bank. Knighted by Queen Elizabeth in 1963, Arthur Lewis retired in 1983 and died in 1991 at the age of 76 in his summer home in Grenada. It was in Manchester that he did some of his most significant works in development economics, especially the seminal article `Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor' (1954) and the treatise, The Theory of Economic Growth (1955). Lewis is also known for his work, while at Princeton, on the history of the second industrial revolution and the new international economic order. While The Theory of Economic Growth (1955) and Growth and Fluctuations 1870–1913 (1978) are both regarded as classics, it is the 1954 article that constitutes his most influential single contribution having spawned a large literature on development as structural transformation. Lewis’s foundational and pioneering research arguably launched the field of modern development economics. This and a deep knowledge of economic history earned him the ultimate recognition as a Nobel Laureate in Economics in 1979. A gifted scholar and a perceptive public intellectual with the sensibilities of a British Fabian socialist (a view he shared with the likes of Gandhi), he was blessed with the good luck of appearing in an era on the cusp of major world events, including decolonization, the global civil rights movement, centrally planned economies, and the urgency for accelerating economic development felt in the newly independent countries of Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. Lewis is also remembered as an independent-minded trailblazer: the first black man to serve on the faculties of LSE, Manchester, and Princeton; to head the University of the West Indies; and to be awarded the Nobel Prize in a field other than peace and literature. Given his origins in a poor outpost of the British Empire and the blatant institutional racism he had to confront at the intellectual centers of the metropole, his life’s journey provides a great inspiration to all who cherish the life of the mind, responsible citizenship, and dream of living in a world free of racial injustice and abject poverty.
    Date: 2014–09–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwm:wpaper:152&r=his
  3. By: Ewa Axelsson
    Abstract: The Forest as a Resource. Conflicts in the Northern Sweden Wooded land in the 19th century The forest as a resource played an important role in the structural transformation process which would change Sweden from an agrarian to an industrial economy during the 19th century. This paper will analyze some of the conflicts regarding property rights by focusing on tensions between institutional change, small scale local landowners and forest corporations in Northern Sweden 1862-1906. An aim is to provide a basis for understanding the process of institutional change in general and more specifically how property rights of wooded land develop. The enclosure documents will be examined as source information about tensions between institutions, forest corporations and land in Northern Sweden 1862-1906. The enclosure reform in Sweden, regulated by the enclosure enactment from 1827, has been emphasized as an institutional factor of great importance in the transformation process since it determined and strengthened private property rights over land. Generally the reform is considered a solution to deal the problem of poorly managed forests, with the main argument that strengthened private property rights provided better management. For several reasons however the enclosure reforms created tensions in the local society which may challenge a one-sided positive view on the enclosure reform. Property rights include many dimensions and in comparison to e.g. arable land, property rights of the wooded land was often more complex and less defined. One source of conflict was therefore the uncertainties of ownership when land was to be redistributed as part of the reform. Another source of conflict was the diverging incentives among small scale local landowners as regards their respective benefits from the reform. Some researchers argue that landowners who applied for enclosure were in the forefront and consider them as "entrepreneurs". Others argue however that the enclosure reform was a way for landowners who had mismanaged their forest to benefit from a neighbor's saved forest thorough the redistribution of land. Yet another source of conflict was the industrial exploitation of forests. During the early 19th century forest corporations still acquired raw materials based on monopolized rights of property and for harvesting. Throughout the 19th century it was also common for corporations to purchase forest properties from private landowners, but in 1901 this business became legally prohibited. The issue of regional resource in Northern Sweden is still a today with controversies surrounding mining and river exploration. Keyword: Northern Sweden, enclosure, 19th century, industrial revolution, institution, conflicts, property right. JEL Code: N
    Keywords: Northern Sweden; enclosure; 19th century; industrial revolution; institution; conflicts; property right. Code:
    JEL: N
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p706&r=his
  4. By: Dwarkasing, N.R.D. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Abstract: This dissertation studies the British banking sector from the end of the 19th century until the beginning of the 20th century. The British banking sector at that time was one of the most developed ones and was characterized by the fact that very little regulation existed concerning, amongst others, deposit insurance and anti-competitive measures. The first two chapters, joint with Fabio Braggion and Lyndon Moore, shed light on how individual banks evolved over time in terms of their branch network and how exactly the banking sector as a whole changed from a large number of small provincial banks to a concentrated banking sector with five large players. In addition, the lack of regulation makes it possible to look at how market participants, such as depositors, borrowers and banks’ shareholders, reacted to and were influenced by such a shift in concentration. The last chapter of this thesis, using a unique and hand collected dataset on micro-level bank lending of the North and South Wales bank, empirically investigates whether there is support for the existence of a bank risk taking channel of monetary policy.
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:c101ecf0-6709-4fb7-a27a-49dc462985a7&r=his
  5. By: Michael D. Bordo
    Abstract: This paper examines the Federal Reserve's actions before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. It looks to the Great Contraction of 1929-1933 for historical context of the Federal Reserve’s actions.
    Date: 2013–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoo:wpaper:13111&r=his
  6. By: Guido de Blasio; Giovanna D'Adda
    Abstract: This paper investigates the interplay between cultural traditions and policy effectiveness. It explores the differential impact of a large development program (Cassa per il Mezzogiorno), implemented for four decades, starting in the 1950s, to stimulate convergence between Italy's South and the more developed North, on municipalities with different histories. Namely, we consider a sample of municipalities located on either side of the historical border of the Kingdom of Sicily, whose legacy is considered, from Putnam (1993) onwards, to be a prime-facie cause of Southern Italy's underdevelopment. Having been part of the Kingdom of Sicily is associated with a negative impact of development policies, but only when the allocation of development funds through the Cassa per il Mezzogiorno suffered from low quality of governance and was driven by political considerations rather than by efficiency ones.
    Keywords: Economic development; History; Social capital; Italy
    JEL: N4 O2
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p815&r=his
  7. By: Galor, Oded; Özak, Ömer
    Abstract: This research explores the origins of the distribution of time preference across regions. It advances the hypothesis, and establishes empirically, that geographical variations in natural land productivity and their impact on the return to agricultural investment have had a persistent effect on the distribution of long-term orientation across societies. In particular, exploiting a natural experiment associated with the expansion of suitable crops for cultivation in the course of the Columbian Exchange, the research establishes that agro-climatic characteristics in the pre-industrial era that were conducive to higher return to agricultural investment, triggered selection and learning processes that had a persistent positive effect on the prevalence of long-term orientation in the contemporary era. This research explores the origins of the distribution of time preference across regions. It advances the hypothesis, and establishes empirically, that geographical variations in the incentives to delay consumption in favor of lucrative investment opportunities have had a persistent effect on the distribution of long-term orientation across societies. In particular, exploiting a natural experiment associated with the Columbian Exchange, the research establishes that agro-climatic characteristics in the pre-industrial era that were conducive to higher return to agricultural investment, triggered selection and learning processes that had a persistent positive effect on the prevalence of long-term orientation in the contemporary era.
    Keywords: agriculture; culture; delayed gratification; economic development; economic growth; evolution; time preference
    JEL: O1 O4 Z1
    Date: 2014–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10122&r=his
  8. By: Michael Bordo; Pierre Siklos
    Abstract: This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold standard before 1914 before being lost and not fully regained until the 1980s. This characterization does not, however, seem to apply to the monetary history in the emerging markets examined in the paper. Nevertheless, credibility in all the economies examined has been enhanced in recent decades thanks to the adoption of inflation targeting. However, the recent financial crisis and the call for central banks to focus more on financial stability relying on macro prudential regulation may pose significant challenges for central bank credibility.
    JEL: C32 C36 E31 E58 N10
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20693&r=his
  9. By: Nathan Foley-Fisher (Federal Reserve Board); Eoin McLaughlin (University of Edinburgh)
    Abstract: We study IrelandÕs inheritance of debt following its secession from the United Kingdom at the beginning of the twentieth century. Exploiting structural differences in bonds guaranteed by the UK and Irish governments, we can identify perceived uncertainty about fiscal responsibility in the aftermath of the sovereign breakup. We document that IrelandÕs default on intergovernmental payments was an important event. Although payments from the Irish government ceased, the UK government instructed its Treasury to continue making interest and principal repayments. As a result, the risk premium on the bonds the UK government had guaranteed fell to about zero. Our findings are consistent with persistent ambiguity about fiscal responsibility far-beyond sovereign breakup. We discuss the political and economic forces behind the Irish and UK governmentsÕ decisions, and suggest lessons for modern-day states that are eyeing dissolution.
    Keywords: State dissolution, sovereign default, Irish land bonds, Dublin Stock Exchange
    JEL: N23 N24 G15
    Date: 2014–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0061&r=his
  10. By: Doepke, Matthias (Northwestern University)
    Abstract: This paper reviews Gary Becker's contributions to the economic analysis of fertility, from his 1960 paper introducing the quantity-quality tradeoff to later work linking the economics of fertility to the theory of economic growth.
    Keywords: Gary Becker, fertility, quantity-quality model, demographic transition
    JEL: J13 O10 O40
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8610&r=his
  11. By: Muriel Dal-Pont Legrand (GREDEG CNRS; University of Nice Sophia Antipolis); Dominique Torre (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, France; GREDEG CNRS)
    Abstract: In a 1958 article, Pierre Dieterlen refers to a 'triumvirate' in order to qualify the team formed in France during the Poincaré stabilization by Emile Moreau, Governor of the Banque de France (BDF), Charles Rist, Professor at La Sorbonne and Deputy-Governor and Pierre Quesnay, his former PhD student, Head of the Department of the Economic Studies and Chief Adviser of the BDF. Pierre Quesnay is the youngest of the trio and has been quite neglected by the historians until the recent paper of Olivier Feiertag (2009) on the Monetary Internationalism during the Inter-War period. From the end of the war in 1918 until 1937, the short life of Pierre Quesnay is fully concerned by the monetary disorders generated by the suspension of the Gold Standard, the difficulties to find alternative monetary solutions, and the management of the monetary consequences of the Great Depression. Building mainly on the Quesnay's papers of the Archives Nationales, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effective contribution of the young money doctor to the monetary stabilization process of the interwar period.
    Keywords: Money Doctors, League of Nations, Franc Poincaré, monetary stabilization, Benjamin Strong, Open market policy
    JEL: N24 B22
    Date: 2014–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2014-43&r=his
  12. By: Banerjee, Abhijit; Duflo, Esther
    Abstract: This paper discusses the two leading views of history and political institutions. For some scholars, institutions are mainly products of historical logic, while for others, accidents, leaders, and decisions have a significant impact. We argue that while there is clear evidence that history matters and has long-term effects, there is not enough data to help us distinguish between the two views. Faced with this uncertainty, what is a social scientist to do? We argue that given the possibility that policy decisions indeed make a difference, it makes sense to assume they do and to try to improve policymaking.
    Keywords: determinism; political economy
    JEL: N30 O1
    Date: 2014–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9997&r=his
  13. By: Le Roux, Muriel; Godelier, Eric; Garel, Gilles; David, Albert
    Keywords: Management; History; Gestion; France; Histoire;
    JEL: B30 N83 N84 M1
    Date: 2014–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/14351&r=his
  14. By: Ko, Chiu Yu; Koyama, Mark; Sng, Tuan-Hwee
    Abstract: This paper studies the causes and consequences of political centralization and fragmentation in China and Europe. We argue that the severe and unidirectional threat of external invasion fostered political centralization in China while Europe faced a wider variety of smaller external threats and remained politically fragmented. We test our hypothesis using data on the frequency of nomadic attacks and the number of regimes in China. Our model allows us to explore the economic consequences of political centralization and fragmentation. Political centralization in China led to lower taxation and hence faster population growth during peacetime than in Europe. But it also meant that China was relatively fragile in the event of an external invasion. Our results are consistent with historical evidence of warfare, capital city location, tax levels, and population growth in both China and Europe.
    Keywords: China; Europe; Great Divergence; Political Fragmentation; Political Centralization
    JEL: H0 H1 H56 N0 N13 N15 N40 N43 N45
    Date: 2014–12–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:60418&r=his
  15. By: Anastasia Litina (CREA, Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: This research theoretically and empirically advances the hypothesis that in early stages of development, land and climatic variability had a persistent beneficial effect on the advent of early statehood. A high degree of land and climatic diversity, and its association with potential gains from trade, accentuated the incentives to develop social, political and physical infrastructure that could facilitate interregional interaction. Hence, the emergence of states was expedited in more diverse geographical environments. To explore the hypotheses the analysis exploits exogenous sources of variation in a) the measure of land variability across countries, and b) climatic variability within countries over the period 500-1500 CE. The research establishes that i) the advent of statehood was expedited in regions characterized by a higher degree of variability in land and climatic conditions, ii) the effect of (land and climatic) variability on statehood operates partly through the advancement of technologies associated with trade, thus suggesting that it is the pivotal role of states in facilitating trade that ultimately contributed to their emergence and consolidation, and, iii) the effect of land variability on statehood dissipates over time,
    Keywords: State Formation, Climatic Variability, Land suitability for agriculture
    JEL: O50 O57 N70
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:14-28&r=his
  16. By: B. Zorina Khan
    Abstract: The paper explores the role of institutional mechanisms in generating technological knowledge spillovers. The estimation is over panel datasets of patent grants, and unpatented innovations that were submitted for prizes at the annual industrial fairs of the American Institute of New York, during the era of early industrial expansion. The first section tests the hypothesis of spatial autocorrelation in patenting and in the exhibited innovations. In keeping with the contract theory of patents, the procedure identifies high and statistically significant spatial autocorrelation in the sample of inventions that were patented, indicating the prevalence of geographical spillovers. By contrast, prize innovations were much less likely to be spatially dependent. The second part of the paper investigates whether unpatented innovations in a county were affected by patenting in contiguous or adjacent counties, and the analysis indicates that such spatial effects were large and significant. These results are consistent with the argument that patents enhance the diffusion of information for both patented and unpatented innovations, whereas prizes are less effective in generating external benefits from knowledge spillovers. I hypothesize that the difference partly owes to the design of patent institutions, which explicitly incorporate mechanisms for systematic recording, access, and dispersion of technical information.
    JEL: N11 O31 O33 O34
    Date: 2014–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20732&r=his
  17. By: Carabelli, Anna; Cedrini, Mario (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Offering a view of the other side of the liquidity-issue, the paper elaborates on the concept of “ fear of goods” in Keynes’s thought. It therefore illustrates numerous evidences of “fear of goods” in his economics , and aims to show that the notion might be considered as playing a quite important role as organising concept, helping to establish connections between ideas that are apparently only weakly related. The article fosters an interpretation of the development of Keynes’s theoretical arguments and proposed policy instruments for both domestic and global economy, as reactions to the “fear of goods” of capitalism, which Keynes saw as an inborn propensity of monetary economies of production.
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:201438&r=his
  18. By: Haber, Stephen H; Mitchener, Kris; Oosterlinck, Kim; Weidenmier, Marc
    Abstract: We develop a method to estimate which side will win a civil war. The key insight we deliver is that, for typical sovereign debt contracts, the probability of debt repayment will equal the probability of victory in a civil war. We test our predictor for standard outcomes in civil wars, including when the incumbent government loses (the Chinese Nationalists), when a new government is installed by a foreign power and decides to repudiate debt (the restoration of Ferdinand VII of Spain), and when there is a secession (the U.S. Confederacy). For China, markets were predicting a Communist victory three years before it happened. For the U.S., markets never gave the South much more than a 40 percent chance of maintaining the Confederacy. For Spain, markets considered the restoration of Ferdinand VII as likely (probabilities above 50%) as soon as France declared its intention to send military forces to the area.
    Keywords: asset prices; civil wars; conflict; predictions markets
    JEL: F3 G1 N2 O1
    Date: 2014–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10109&r=his
  19. By: Campos, Nauro F (Brunel University); Karanasos, Menelaos G. (Brunel University); Tan, Bin (Southwest Jiaotong University)
    Abstract: Argentina is the only country in the world that was "developed" in 1900 and "developing" in 2000. The various competing explanations highlight, mainly, the roles of trade openness, political institutions, financial integration, financial development, and macroeconomic instability. Yet no study has, to the best of our knowledge, attempted a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of each of these competing explanations. This paper tries to fill this gap. It investigates their individual effects on economic growth and volatility using the power-ARCH framework with annual data since the 1890s. The results indicate that financial development and institutional change are the two main factors that help understand the extraordinary growth trajectory of Argentina over the last century.
    Keywords: economic growth, financial development, volatility, institutions, political instability, power-GARCH
    JEL: C14 O40 E23 D72
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8654&r=his
  20. By: Kent Deng (London School of Economics); Patrick Karl OÕBrien (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Our article is a critical survey of the concepts, methods and date constructed and utilized by scholars (particularly the late Angus Maddison) in order to provide estimates for the measurement of relative levels and long term trends in the GDP per capita for China from the Han Dynasty to modern times. We applaud the endeavour but have reluctantly concluded that, even as conjectures, they are not fit for purpose. Furthermore, our article suggests that the Kuznetsian paradigm in empirical economics may not turn out to be viable for qualitative analysis of the long term development of imperial economies of pre-modern East and South Asia.
    Date: 2014–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0063&r=his
  21. By: Geessien Lubberman-Schrotenboer, I.
    Abstract: In this comparative-historical case study, changes in payment modes and currencies are described and analysed for the cases of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia against the background of the breakup of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. First, an analytical framework is developed, yielding an ideal type of payments and a categorisation of movements away from and towards this ideal. While a unilateral decision tree forms the basic framework, it is argued that choosing a payment mode and a currency to effect a transaction is a problem of coordination. The aggregate outcome of changes in payments is understood by putting emphasis on the interplay of informal and formal rules in payments as well as on network structure and characteristics of payment systems. After a description of the context, per case overviews are provided of major changes with respect to the payment system, payment network, legal tender and currency regime that occurred before, during and after the wars in the Balkans in the 1990s. By bringing theory and empirical data together, the thesis illuminates how and why payments changed under circumstances of conflict, how problems in payments were circumvented or solved, and what the economic outcome of the changes in payments was.
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:0bcfb2a3-bcd8-4652-84e9-ba27606750ba&r=his
  22. By: Mary Eschelbach Hansen; Nicolas L. Ziebarth
    Abstract: Credit relationships are sticky. Stickiness makes relationships beneficial for borrowers in distress, but potentially problematic for them when lenders face distress. To examine stickiness in a time of distress, we exploit a natural experiment during the Depression that generated differences in banking outcomes. Using a new dataset from Dun & Bradstreet and original bankruptcy filings, we show that greater distress increased exit by up to 16 percent. Distress did not generate more bankruptcies, but it changed the geographical distribution of creditors of bankrupt businesses. This is consistent with a contraction of business-to-business credit where there was greater distress.
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2014-11&r=his
  23. By: Christophe Blot (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE)); Jerome Creel (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE)); Anne-Laure Delatte (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE)); Fabien Labondance (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE)); Sandrine Levasseur (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE))
    Abstract: Since the 1980s, structural and regulatory evolutions and reforms of the French banking and financial system have been manifold. They have been influenced not only by the European integration process, but also by the historical worldwide context of deregulation and, morerecently, by the crisis.The paper presents these three waves of regulation and their impact on the French banking and financial system
    Keywords: banking system, financial system, regulation, financial crisis, France
    JEL: G18 G28
    Date: 2014–09–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper66&r=his
  24. By: Carol S. Leonard; Daniel Shestakov (RANEPA); Konstantin Yanovskiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In this paper we explore current understandings of the influence of political rights, among historical legacies, on economic development. We construct variables for selected political regimes for 1811-2010. We find significant association between individual rights and economic growth. We argue that current understanding of political regimes supportive of growth (Acemoglu, etc), should parse the concept of property rights to include the protection of the individual in their focus on private property rights protection, alone, respected in various forms of government, are insufficient; what matters is the security of individuals from arbitrary arrest, regardless of “type of regime”. Discretionary rights of rulers or democratic governments to arrest citizens undermines the protection of private property rights and other attributes classically given to democratic foundations of economic growth, for example, free press, freedom of the exercise of religious belief. We suggest, as a research agenda, that the power of the politically competitive system therefore comes from weakening discretionary authority over law enforcement
    Keywords: Rule of Law, Rule of Force, Personal Rights, Private Property Protection, Economic Growth
    JEL: P16 P50 N40 O40
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:0106&r=his
  25. By: Valerie A. Ramey; Sarah Zubairy
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether U.S. government spending multipliers differ according to two potentially important features of the economy: (1) the amount of slack and (2) whether interest rates are near the zero lower bound. We shed light on these questions by analyzing new quarterly historical U.S. data covering multiple large wars and deep recessions. We estimate a state-dependent model in which impulse responses and multipliers depend on the average dynamics of the economy in each state. We find no evidence that multipliers differ by the amount of slack in the economy. These results are robust to many alternative specifications. The results are less clear for the zero lower bound. For the entire sample, there is no evidence of elevated multipliers near the zero lower bound. When World War II is excluded, some point estimates suggest higher multipliers during the zero lower bound state, but they are not statistically different from the normal state. Our results imply that, contrary to recent conjecture, government spending multipliers were not necessarily higher than average during the Great Recession.
    JEL: E52 E62 N12
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20719&r=his
  26. By: Link, Albert (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: The origin of ideas is an important topic to be addressed by eminent disciplinary scholars, and then debated, and then debated, and then debated yet again. Even addressing the narrower topic of the origin of entrepreneurial or innovative ideas is a bold if not presumptuous undertaking. In this paper, which forms the basis of my keynote address, I set the stage with a brief summary statement about how two historical scholars viewed the source of ideas and then I move to a brief discussion about what academic researchers in the field of entrepreneurship and innovation know about sources that influence innovative behavior. In the final section, I present some inaugural findings from my own research in this area, or more accurately, the research on which I have just begun to embark. I conclude with a question: Why do scholars of entrepreneurship, innovation, and enterprise dynamics need to know about the sources of ideas that lead to new technology and innovation, and I offer a suggestive answer.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship; innovation; ideation; technology
    JEL: L26 O31 O32
    Date: 2014–12–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:uncgec:2014_009&r=his
  27. By: Cogneau, Denis; Houngbedji, Kenneth; Mesple-Somps, Sandrine
    Abstract: At the end of the 1980s, C.te d.Ivoire entered a deep macroeconomic crisis that put an end to the often-praised .Ivorian miracle.. After the death of the founding father Houphouet-Boigny, unrestrained political competition added to bad economic conditions
    Keywords: economic history, poverty, C.te d.Ivoire, welfare
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2014-144&r=his
  28. By: Ganguli, Ina (Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines how high-skilled immigrants contribute to knowledge diffusion using a rich dataset of Russian scientists and US citations to Soviet-era publications. Analysis of a panel of US cities and scientific fields shows that citations to Soviet-era work increased significantly with the arrival of immigrants. A difference-in-differences analysis with matched paper-pairs also shows that after Russian scientists moved to the US, citations to their Soviet-era papers increased relative to control papers. Both strategies reveal scientific field-specific effects. Ideas in high-impact papers and papers previously accessible to US scientists were the most likely to "spill over" to natives.
    Keywords: high skill immigration; citations; innovation; Russia
    JEL: J40 J61 O33
    Date: 2014–11–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hasite:0030&r=his
  29. By: Michael D. Bordo
    Abstract: This review examines a collection of lectures given by Ben Bernanke on the Federal Reserve's actions during the 2008 financial crisis.
    Date: 2013–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoo:wpaper:13109&r=his
  30. By: Ulises García Repetto (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: The global economic crisis inaugurated by the Great Depression caused a radical change in international trade flows and buried definitely the gold standard and automatic adjustment mechanism of local currencies. Hence, countries should rethink their business relationship and face the problem of devaluation of local currencies and loss reserves. The institute that countries appealed to face the new scenario will be: the Exchange Control. In the case of Uruguay, the Exchange Control (May 1931) is installed as a mechanism to defend the “peso” and to prevent the outflows of gold and foreign currencies. In the process of installing this institution, its objectives were extended and begun the use of the multiple exchange rate system and differential exchange rate to induce structural change, refocus imports, deepening industrialization, promote exports with a higher added value and create a source of revenue for the government that was used for income distribution (trough, subsiding popular consumptions). In the short run, while Exchange Control gained a greater institutional structure, it will include not only the fixing of exchange rates and the segmentation exchange market, but it will also be used to manage the country's foreign trade and subsequently it will be used as an instrument to promote and protect the industrialization effort. However, by the second half of the fifties it demonstrated its excessive dependence on international conditions (level of international prices, etc.); and, internally, it failed to address the inflationary process that was affecting the country.
    Keywords: exchange control, multiple exchange rates system, differential exchange rate
    JEL: N1 N16
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-18-14&r=his
  31. By: Shengmin Sun (Center for Economic Research, Shandong University); Qiang Chen (School of Economics, Shandong University)
    Abstract: The mainstream view that decollectivization significantly contributed to China's agricultural growth has recently been challenged by revisionists, who emphasize the positive effects of the socialist legacy, such as irrigation and mechanization. This study contributes to this debate by explicitly recognizing the endogeneity of institutional changes and uses lagged weather shocks as valid instruments. With improved data on irrigation and mechanization in a provincial-level dataset covering the1970-1987 period, the results of panel GMM estimations reveal that the Household Responsibility System had a significantly positive effect on China's agricultural growth, which is larger than that indicated by OLS estimates..
    Keywords: Decollectivization, Household Responsibility System, Agricultural Growth, China
    JEL: O13 O43 Q15 N55
    Date: 2014–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shn:wpaper:2014-05&r=his
  32. By: Jean-Luc Gaffard (OFCE)
    Abstract: Le livre de Thomas Piketty « Le Capital au XXIème siècle » est ambivalent. D’un côté, une lecture théorique trop simple, fondamentalement a-institutionnelle, retient un taux de croissance définitivement exogène et ignore l’hétérogénéité du capital, faisant de la répartition des revenus et des richesses une donnée technique sans influence en retour sur la croissance elle-même. D’un autre côté, les faits stylisés rassemblés et les intuitions qui y sont associées incitent réfléchir sur les tenants et aboutissants de la répartition des revenus et des patrimoines pour lui redonner une place centrale dans la théorie économique et lui restituer sa dimension sociale.
    Keywords: capital; distribution ; growth; rent; wealth
    JEL: D30 H20 O40
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4c4c4nnru58a4obbds13ednod9&r=his
  33. By: Patricia Turco; Ricardo Firetti; Flavia Bliska; Eder Pinatti; Antonio Bliska; Sergio Tôsto
    Abstract: This study examines the relationship between the trajectory of technological innovations in Brazilian coffee regions in the period 1932-2012, with the economic growth and development in those areas. The objective of the study is to provide information to public and private institutions involved in research, development, innovation and extension, as well as to the authorities responsible for preparing the regional development policies and for making decisions regarding the application of financial and human resources. First, we studied the evolution of coffee research and identified the technologies that resulted in break points or key points for sectoral development. For this we conducted semi-structured interviews with 14 researchers, farmers and consultants related to the coffee sector. Second, based on the periods in which the breakpoints were identified, we analyzed the trajectories of innovations in each of the five main Brazilian coffee regions. For this, we developed a structured questionnaire, which was applied to 148 representatives of the coffee sector, by random sampling, for the following periods: ? 1932-1954: the beginning of coffee research at the first break point in the sectoral evolution: the release of the first 'modern' coffee cultivar ? 1955 - 1974: the consolidation of the adoption of this cultivar to the second breakpoint in the sectoral evolution: the release of the second 'modern' cultivar and the beginning of mechanized farming; ? 1975 - 1989: consolidation of mechanization and adoption of those two 'modern' cultivars; ? 1990 - 2000: expanding the use of irrigation in crops; ? 2001 - 2012: emphasis on the final product quality and integrated management of production. To analyze the information from the questionnaire, we used cluster analysis by two-way joining method, in which a graph of color scale is generated, which expresses in the vertical reading the technologies used in the analyzed period, and horizontally, the five periods identified in the survey, for Brazil as a whole and for each of the five Brazilian coffee regions. The results show that in regions where technological innovations were adopted and consolidated, there was an increase in productivity and that socioeconomic indicators are significantly better than in other regions.
    Keywords: Coffee production; Regional Development; Multivariate Analysis
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p517&r=his
  34. By: Ignacio Zubizarreta
    Abstract: En este documento de trabajo nos centraremos en la figura del conciliador o componedor político. La temática puede resultar de particular interés para aquellos estudiantes en ciencias políticas y relaciones internacionales. Por un lado, porque el ejercicio de toda mediación implica una condición especial para el manejo –y manipulación– de redes sociales. Por otro, porque supone el ejercicio de una transversalidad a través de distintos campos políticos que sólo puede explicarse gracias a los lazos que pudieron establecer los agentes en el derrotero de sus vidas. Considero que los componedores políticos –pero aún más, el fracaso de sus cometidos– representan una cabal muestra de la dinámica del faccionalismo propio del siglo XIX. La labilidad del campo de pertenencia faccioso dejó ciertos cotos para que algunos actores tuviesen afinidad con miembros de los bandos antagónicos, lo que pone en evidencia una capacidad excepcional para intentar una transacción. Lo que se pretende presentar en este apartado son una serie de situaciones en las que se buscó la conciliación política entre las facciones en pugna (la unitaria y la federal), con el objetivo de intentar comprender no sólo cómo se efectuaba esa intermediación, sino también, procurar discernir el porqué de sus fracasos.
    Date: 2014–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:553&r=his
  35. By: A. Pinna
    Abstract: Most extant explanations of financial crises emphasise the role played by negative shocks on the liability side of a bank’s balance sheet. The vast literature on bank runs induced policy makers to build up a reputation as institutions willing to do anything to support the orderly fulfillment of depositors’ and interbank claims. Nonetheless, the LTCM crisis of 1998 and the Subprime crisis of 2007 are compelling examples of how the banking industry is prone to systemic disruptions even without preference shocks or domino effect. This survey argues in favour of the still marginal literature on financial crises unfolding through the asset side of banks’ balance sheets.
    Keywords: Shadow banking, Originate to distribute, financial crises, Diabolic loop
    JEL: G32
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:201411&r=his
  36. By: van Schaik, A.B.T.M. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Date: 2014
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:e24d9e91-60a2-4ee2-806e-647142dfb557&r=his
  37. By: Amit Batabyal; Peter Nijkamp
    Abstract: We use a dynamic model to study the effects of technology and learning on the long run economic growth rates of a leading and a lagging region. New technologies are developed in the leading region but technological improvements in the lagging region are the result of learning from the leading region's technologies. Our analysis sheds light on four salient questions. First, we determine the long run growth rate of output per human capital unit in the leading region. Second, we define a lagging to leading region technology ratio, study its stability properties, and then use this ratio to ascertain the long run growth rate of output per human capital unit in the lagging region. Third, for specific parameter values, we analyze the ratio of output per human capital unit in the lagging region to output per human capital unit in the leading region when both regions have converged to their balanced growth paths. Finally, we discuss the policy implications of our analysis and then offer suggestions for extending the research described here.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Lagging Region; Leading Region; Learning; Technology
    JEL: R11 R58 O33
    Date: 2014–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p893&r=his
  38. By: Rodriguez-Pose, Andres; Stermsek, Marko
    Abstract: This paper looks at the economic impact of secession through the lens of the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia. It uses an econometric analysis covering the period between 1956 and 2011 – including a series of factors linked to the independence process, socioeconomic and structural controls, and the level of development – in order to assess whether a) breaking away from the former Yugoslavia delivered an ‘independence dividend’ to the newly independent countries and whether b) independence had a more favourable impact in richer, rather than poorer territories. The results of the analysis underline that there has been no favourable economic impact of secession and that how secession was achieved is key in understanding the subsequent economic performance of the newly independent countries. In cases of secession without conflict, independence did not have a noticeable impact on ensuing economic performance. Secession achieved by conflict, by contrast, seriously dented growth prospects.
    Keywords: conflict; economic growth; Europe; independence; secession; Yugoslavia
    JEL: F53 H77
    Date: 2014–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10134&r=his

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