nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2014‒08‒02
twenty-one papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Before she said ‘I do’ The impact of industrialization on unmarried women’s labour force participation 1812-1932 By Corinne Boter
  2. Growth, Import Dependence and War By Roberto Bonfatti; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
  3. A Colonial Legacy of African Gender Inequality? Evidence from Christian Kampala, 1895-2011 By Felix Meier zu Selhausen; Jacob Weisdorf
  4. Human Capital Formation from Occupations: The ‘Deskilling Hypothesis’ Revisited By Alexandra De Pleijt; Jacob Weisdorf
  5. The return of"patrimonial capitalism": review of Thomas Piketty's capital in the 21st century By Milanovic, Branko
  6. "State History and Economic Development: Evidence from Six Millennia" By Oana Borcan; Ola Olsson; Louis Putterman
  7. Grammar of difference? Labour policies and social norms on work and gender in the Netherlands and the Netherlands Indies, ca. 1800-1940 By Elise van Nederveen Meerkerk
  8. Fertility and early-life mortality: Evidence from smallpox vaccination in Sweden By Ager, Philipp; Worm Hansen, Casper; Sandholt Jensen, Peter
  9. Da MEGA à MEGA2: breve história da edição crítica das obras de Karl Marx By Hugo E. A. da Gama Cerqueira
  10. Charity and Retailing: Economic Discourses of Uneven Geographies. By Livingstone, Nicola
  11. Guns, Economic Growth and Education during the second half of the Twentieth Century: Was Spain different? By José Jurado-Sánchez; Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín
  12. Aspects regarding the valuationof historical properties By Gramescu, Ana Maria; Barbu, Daniela Ana Maria
  13. How Important Was Marxism for the Development of Mozambique and Angola? By Kyle, Steven
  14. Land Taxation: An Idea Whose Time Has Gone By Evans, Alan W.
  15. Lições do processo de desenvolvimento japonês: catch up completo e forging ahead bloqueado By Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque
  16. The Myths and Reality of Urban Constraint in United Kingdom: Changing Circumstances and Unchanged Policies By Evans, Alan W.
  17. Women’s wages and fertility revisited. Evidence from Norway By Tom Kornstad; Marit Rønsen
  18. Developing shared product platforms during a merger: The Fiat-Chrysler case By Anna Cabigiosu; Francesco Zirpoli; Markus Becker
  19. Restitution in Poland – costs and obligations after 25 years of democratic state’s creation By Zaleczna, Magdalena
  20. A latent democracy measure 1850-2000 By Peter Foldvari
  21. Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration By Alan S. Blinder; Mark W. Watson

  1. By: Corinne Boter
    Abstract: Recent research based on Dutch marriage records shows a steady decrease of female labour force participation from the 1840s until the 1930s. However, this research relies on combined data from several municipalities. Analysing the sources in this way aggregates the development to such an extent that local variation is completely overlooked. This article contributes to our understanding of regional variation in unmarried women’s labour from 1812 to 1932. The purpose of this research is to isolate the developments in industry from those in agriculture and the service sector. I use marriage records from four regions that list the occupation of the bride to determine the amount of working unmarried women throughout the research period. My data show a different development from the previously mentioned research. Unlike earlier results, I found that unmarried women’s labour force participation in the industrial centres did not decrease gradually throughout the nineteenth and early-twentieth century. Moreover, labour force participation was remarkably high compared to the other sectors, especially during the first decades of the twentieth century. I argue that industry developed in a specific way because it required a cheap labour force which was mostly found among young women. This statement is supported by showing the percentages of brides with a recorded occupation in two industrial centres. Furthermore, I show that in these centres, the younger a woman was, the higher the chance that she stated an occupation in her marriage record. This was not the case in the agricultural and serviceoriented regions I have investigated. I therefore argue that research on the history of female labour should be approached from a comparative perspective for a proper understanding of its developments.
    Keywords: female labour force participation, unmarried women, industrialization, marriage records
    Date: 2014–07
  2. By: Roberto Bonfatti; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
    Abstract: Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may choose to launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot credibly commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who launched a war against the West in 1941, not the West that pre-emptively attacked Japan. Similarly, many have argued that trade makes war less likely, yet World War I erupted at a time of unprecedented globalization. This paper develops a theoretical model of the relationship between trade and war which can help to explain both these observations. Dependence on strategic imports can lead follower nations to launch pre-emptive wars when they are potentially subject to blockade.
    JEL: F51 F52 N70
    Date: 2014–07
  3. By: Felix Meier zu Selhausen; Jacob Weisdorf
    Abstract: The colonial legacy of African underdevelopment is widely debated but hard to document. We use occupational statistics from Protestant marriage registers of historical Kampala to investigate the hypothesis that African gender inequality and female disempowerment are rooted in colonial times. We find that the arrival of Europeans in Uganda ignited a century- long transformation of Kampala involving a gender Kuznets curve. Men rapidly acquired literacy and quickly found their way into white-collar (high-status) employment in the wage economy built by the Europeans. Women took somewhat longer to obtain literacy and considerably longer to enter into white-collar and waged work. This led to increased gender inequality during the first half of the colonial period. But gender inequality gradually declined during the latter half of the colonial era, and after Uganda’s independence in 1962 its level was not significantly different from that of pre-colonial times. Our data support Boserup’s view that gender inequality was rooted in native social norms: daughters of African men who worked in the traditional, informal economy were less well educated, less frequently employed in formal work, and more often subjected to marital gender inequality than daughters of men employed in the modernized, formal economy created by the Europeans.
    Keywords: Africa, Church Books, Colonialism, Development, Female Disempowerment, Gender Discrimination, Gender Inequality, Missionaries, Uganda
    Date: 2014–07
  4. By: Alexandra De Pleijt; Jacob Weisdorf
    Abstract: We use occupational titles from English parish registers in an attempt to test the deskilling hypothesis, i.e. the notion that England’s Industrial Revolution was mainly skill saving. We code the occupational titles of over 30,000 male workers according to the skillcontent of their work (using HISCLASS) to track the evolution of working skills in England between 1550 and 1850. Although we observe a minor rise in the share of ‘high-quality workmen’ deemed necessary by Mokyr and others to facilitate the Industrial Revolution, such as joiners, turners, and wrights, we also find considerable growth in the share of unskilled workers, from 20% in around 1700 to 39% in around 1850, fed mainly by falling shares of semi-skilled blue-collar workers, such as tailors, shoemakers, and weavers. This supports the view that England’s Industrial Revolution was not only skill saving on average but also involved a proletarianization of the English workforce.
    Keywords: Deskilling, HISCLASS, Human Capital, Industrial Revolution, Occupations
    Date: 2014–07
  5. By: Milanovic, Branko
    Abstract: The paper provides a detailed review of Thomas Piketty's book"Capital in the 21st century."It focuses on the new contributions of the book, and in particular on its unified treatment of economic growth, functional income distribution, and concentration of personal income. It concludes that Piketty's reinvigoration of classical and empircally-drven approach is likely to have a profound impact on economics.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Political Economy,Emerging Markets,Inequality,Poverty Impact Evaluation
    Date: 2014–07–01
  6. By: Oana Borcan; Ola Olsson; Louis Putterman
    Abstract: All since the rise of the first civilizations, economic development has been closely intertwined with the evolution of states. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on state history and long-run economic development in four ways. First, we extend and complete the state history index from Bockstette, Chanda and Putterman (2002) by coding the experience with states from the first state origins, 3500 BCE, up until 2000 CE. Second, we explore empirically the relationship between time since transition to agriculture and state age, as well as subsequent state history. Our estimated unconditional correlation implies that a 1000 year earlier transition to agriculture is associated with a 470 years earlier emergence of state institutions. We show how this relationship differs between indigenously- and externally- originated states. Third, we show that the relationship between our extended state history index and current levels of economic development has the shape of an inverted u. The results reflect the fact that countries that were home to the oldest states, such as Iraq, Egypt and China, are poorer today than younger inheritors of their civilizations, such as Germany, Denmark and Japan. This pattern was already in place by 1500 CE and is robust to adjusting for migrations during the colonial era. Finally, we demonstrate a very close relationship between state formation and the adoption of writing.
    Keywords: State history, comparative development
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Elise van Nederveen Meerkerk
    Abstract: This paper investigates developments in labour policies and social norms on gender and work from the perspective of colonial entanglements. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, work was seen a means to morally discipline the poor, both in the Netherlands and the Netherlands Indies. A prime example are the initiatives by Johannes van den Bosch, who first in 1818 established 'peat colonies(!)' in the Netherlands, where the urban poor were transported to become industrious agrarian workers. In 1830, the same Van den Bosch introduced the Cultivation System in the Netherlands Indies, likewise, to increase Javanese peasants' industriousness. During the nineteenth century, ideals and practices of the male breadwinner started to pervade Dutch working-class households, and child and women's labour laws were issued. Instead, legislation in the Netherlands Indies was introduced very late and under heavy pressure of the international community. Not only did Dutch politicians consider it 'natural' that Indonesian women and children worked. What is more, they presented the inherent differences between Indonesian and Dutch women as legitimation for the protection of the latter: a fine example of what Ann Stoler and Frederick Cooper have called a 'grammar of difference'.
    Keywords: Social policy, Women's work, Child labour, Colonial history, Labour relations.
    Date: 2014–07
  8. By: Ager, Philipp; Worm Hansen, Casper; Sandholt Jensen, Peter
    Abstract: We examine how the introduction of smallpox vaccination affected early-life mortality and fertility in Sweden during the first half of the 19th century. We demonstrate that parishes in counties with higher levels of smallpox mortality prior to the introduction of vaccination experienced a greater decline in infant mortality afterwards. Exploiting this finding in an instrumental-variable approach reveals that this decline had a negative effect on the birth rate, while the number of surviving children and population growth remained unaffected. These results suggest that the decline in early-life mortality cannot account for the onset of the fertility decline in Sweden.
    Keywords: Fertility transition, infant mortality, smallpox vaccine
    JEL: I15 J10 J13 N33
    Date: 2014–07–29
  9. By: Hugo E. A. da Gama Cerqueira (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the attempts to publish a historical-critical edition of the works of Karl Marx, the Marx-Engels Gesamtausgabe (MEGA): the first one, which was led by David Riazanov in the 1920s and 1930s, and the second one, the MEGA2 project which begun in the 1970s and is still in course of publication. The paper presents these two editions and discusses their impact on the interpretation of Marxs economic and philosophical thought.
    Keywords: Karl Marx (1818-1883); Friedrich Engels (1820-1895); MEGA; marxology.
    JEL: A31 B14 B24
    Date: 2014–07
  10. By: Livingstone, Nicola
    Abstract: The urban retail environment actively reflects changes in society today, as we exist in an undeniably interconnected world. Such movements have produced a geographically uneven market through which charity retailing has evolved. Charity retailers have become ubiquitous in their presence on the British high street – it is more surprising to discover urban areas without these retailers. Society has created the need for such retailers, but since their expansion in post World War Two Britain they have undergone a significant transformation – both economically and spatially. Charity retailers have become professional, profit maximising businesses as they developed from a stigmatised second-hand retailer relegated to undesirable retail locations have now emerged as fashionable signifiers of gentrification. This research considers the growth of charity retailers from an economic and spatial perspective, adopting the city of Edinburgh as its case study. Charity retailing is situated within the urban economy of the early twenty-first century, as a niche, which has evolved concomitant to the restructuring of the retail market. The paper addresses the lacuna of research in the third sector relative to charity retailers and is informed by socio-economic data and ethnographic studies. The research seeks to answer the question: How have charity retailers become so indelible in the British high street and how can they be understood?
    Date: 2013
  11. By: José Jurado-Sánchez (Department of Economic History and Institutions I, Complutense University of Madrid); Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín (Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa (Department of Quantitative Economics), Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales (Faculty of Economics and Business), Universidad Complutense de Madrid)
    Abstract: In the past decades, numerous studies have been conducted on the trade-off between guns and butter, namely defense versus social sector expenditure. The aim of this research is identifying whether indeed defense spending crowded out investment and other social expenditures as health and education. Previous research does not yield strong and unambiguous evidence of neither positive nor negative effects of military expenditure on social spending. It is striking that the guns versus butter dilemma has not been extensively studied for Spain. Using Mintz and Huang (1991) strategy applied to the US, we test if the government expenditure in defense in Spain during the last part of the Franco’s dictatorship and the first years of the transition and democracy, contributed positively or negatively to education spending. Results show a negative trade-off for the Franco’s regimen and an ambiguous effect for the last part of the sample.
    Keywords: Guns versus butter dilemma.
    JEL: H51 H52 H53 H56 N40 N44
    Date: 2014–06
  12. By: Gramescu, Ana Maria; Barbu, Daniela Ana Maria
    Abstract: In the paper are analyzed the criteria that influence the financial and cultural value of the historical and architectural monuments, as well as the influence given by their uniqueness. The paper synthesizes the researches made by the author in the evaluation domain, and mainly in the evaluation of the historical properties, using two methods: the replacement value method and the comparison method.When analyzing such properties, the evaluators must be aware of the financial and cultural value of the historical buildings, and the potential negative influence given by the augmentation of their financial and cultural values, as well as the consequences of some intervention measures. This is the reason why the evaluators must identify and inspect the historical buildings in the process of evaluation, so that their financial, cultural, architectural and historical interest can count, including any intervention of protection, in determining the value of the building and the requirement of intervention measures.The notion of historical monument includes both the architectural conception and the urban or rural settlement that show evidence of a certain civilization, of a significant evolution, or a historical event. Therewith, the notion of historical monument extends also on small works that over time acquired a cultural signification.
    Date: 2014
  13. By: Kyle, Steven
    Keywords: International Development, Political Economy,
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Evans, Alan W.
    Abstract: The idea of tax on the value of land was put forward by Henry George in his book Progress and Poverty. Its influence was great. Political parties were formed on the basis of the ideas it put forward and pressure groups still exist to promote those ideas. But despite this quasi-religious belief in the efficacy of land value taxation it has never been widely adopted. Only two countries in western Europe have any kind of land tax, most have some form of tax on the value of the whole property. The reasons for this would seem to lie in problems of practicality and politics.As regards practicality one country which does whole heartedly apply land taxation is Taiwan. The problem there is that in Taipeh at least very little undeveloped land comes onto the market. Therefore in order to value the land on which a building sits, two valuations have to be carried out. First the value of the entire property has to be estimated. Second, the cost of construction of the building has to be estimated. Deducting one estimate from the other the valuer arrives at an estimate of the value of the underlying land. It is evident that the cost of the valuation is twice as great as if a tax were being levied on the value of the property and the result is less certain.In New Zealand municipalities can choose which form of land or property taxation to use to raise money. This problem of practicality is, one would expect, the main reason why none of the major cities use land taxation. Land taxes are used only in the rural areas, where, it is evident, there is land being sold on the market so that valuations can be made both easily and reliably.The political problem is that levying a tax on land might have been politically popular in the nineteenth century when most of the population rented their homes. A land tax would then have been a form of wealth tax - a tax borne by the rich. But in countries where most of the population now own their own homes a land tax is not going to be popular if it is levied at anything other than a low rate. But if it is levied at a low rate then it will not achieve the economic effects that its supporters believe that it could. Its time has passed.
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: The Japanese catch up between 1868 and 1974 holds important lessons for underdeveloped countries. This paper evaluates the Japanese experience including strategic and geopolitical considerations. Successful industrial policies implemented might have been shaped under the influence of those strategic considerations. The industrial policies described by Ohkawa and Kohama (1989) are integrated with the military mobilization of the 1930s and 1940s and with the Occupation policies (1945-1952). The institutional result is a new variety of capitalism that will feed the high growth era (1955-1974). Therefore a new challenge arises: how implement a catch up process in peace and democracy?
    Keywords: Development, industrial policy, catch up, Japan
    JEL: P1 O38 N45
    Date: 2014–05
  16. By: Evans, Alan W.
    Abstract: It is well known that urban expansion is constrained in the UK by Green Belts around the major cities and by other policies. This policy of constraint came into existence after World War Two. The primary driving force at that time was a desire to preserve agricultural land which was perceived to be vital to the nation after the submarine blockade of the war years. This perceived need for agricultural production meant, firstly, that farming was left uncontrolled by the 1947 Planning Act, and, secondly, that it was heavily subsidised, subsidies which continued after the UK joined the EU in the seventies.Things changed around 1980, however. Firstly it was perceived that the drive for increased agricultural production was leading to the loss of some perceived benefits of the countryside as fields were enlarged, hedges removed, ponds drained, etc, and, secondly, that the use of pesticides and herbicides to increase production was leading to a loss of wildlife. Complaints about agricultural surpluses - butter mountains, milk lakes, etc, which led to land being set aside to reduce production meant that there seemed to be no reason to protect agricultural land.The reasons for the policy of constraint changed, however, but not the policy. The perceived need now was to protect the beauty, peace, and wildlife of the countryside.The policy continued to be supported because the British population believes various myths - that half or less of England is rural (not the ninety per cent of reality), or that the UK uses its urban land wastefully (actually it's more efficient than almost all other west European countries).The policies are also supported by the wealthy and powerful. Anyone walking in the London Green Belt will find that the land is mostly used, not for agriculture, but for golf courses and for stabling the horses of the rich.The economic consequences of the policy did not change, of course. These are that land and house prices are high and rising, the latter doubling in real terms every twenty five years, but this too is seen as a benefit by the older population who are home owners.But now the young, excluded from buying homes by the current economic crisis, are taking an active interest. Changes in policy appear to be possible and may take place.We wait with interest.
    Date: 2013
  17. By: Tom Kornstad; Marit Rønsen (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Since the 1960s, Beckers’ New Home Economics has provided a central theoretical framework for studies of fertility behaviour. New Home Economics predict a negative effect of female wages on fertility. This prediction has been tested in a number of studies over the past decades, but the results are far from unanimous. In this paper we review past evidence of the impact of female wages on their childbearing behaviour and supply new evidence from Norway. We estimate a simultaneous hazard rate model of transitions to first, second and third birth, including predicted wage as a time-dependent variable. Using a very large dataset covering all women born in Norway during the period 1955-74, we find that timing of births is associated with wage changes. The wage effect on the log hazard is U-shaped for all the four 5-year cohorts we are studying, but the effect varies across cohorts and parity. We also find that the relationship between timing of births and wages are not very sensitive to the omission of the women’s non-labour income.
    Keywords: female fertility; wages; non-labor income; hazard model
    JEL: J13 J30
    Date: 2014–06
  18. By: Anna Cabigiosu; Francesco Zirpoli; Markus Becker
    Abstract: This paper, building on R&D integration and improvisation literature, explores how firms organize to jointly develop common product platforms if their integration process is still in progress. In order to address our exploratory research question, we draw on a unique set of empirical data gathered during the Fiat-Chrysler R&D integration process and during the development of their first shared product platform. We show that, how due to fierce competition on time in the industry, the two companies did not have time to complete the planned R&D integration. As a consequence, the first shared platform development project represented the real locus of technological, knowledge, and organizational integration between the two firms. In line with the R&D integration literature, this paper identifies a set of planned integration mechanisms: a centralized R&D area, two teams that mirror each other, integrator roles and shared technical norms. This organization was designed to help Fiat and Chrysler exploiting their complementarities. Furthermore, building on the improvisational literature, we show that the planned organization did not suffice: interstices between the two firms exist and planning and improvisation are complementary. Improvisation should be built upon a minimum structure and firms willing to accelerate their integration process can rely upon NPD activities.
    Keywords: R&D integration, improvisation, NPD organization, merger and acquisitions
    JEL: O32
    Date: 2014–07
  19. By: Zaleczna, Magdalena
    Abstract: This article presents the problem of restitution in Poland in the political, social and economic context. The author analyses public obligations resulted from breaking property rights during socialist past and attempts of restitution in Poland, indicating the most important flashpoints. The author examines the current negative attitude toward restitution presented by the government and society. A hypothesis constructed by the author focuses on the negative, but not noticed by the society, effects of a lack of the general restitution. Having an outline of the problem the author wants to concentrate on real example of a city Lodz. Local governments have been coping with many different restitution claims for last 25 years. The collected data indicate hidden costs influencing the local economy. The study is based on the legal documents and the results of public opinion polls.
    Date: 2014
  20. By: Peter Foldvari
    Abstract: In this paper we apply a factor analysis with a measurement error model to extract the latent democracy variable from the components of polity2 and Vanhanen’s Index of Democracy, under the assumption that each of these components are driven by a common latent factor with different amount of measurement errors. We use the estimated latent democracy variable to estimate the distribution of democracy across countries over the 1860- 2000 period.
    Keywords: latent variable estimation, democracy, factor analysis
    Date: 2014–07
  21. By: Alan S. Blinder; Mark W. Watson
    Abstract: The U.S. economy has grown faster—and scored higher on many other macroeconomic metrics—when the President of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican. For many measures, including real GDP growth (on which we concentrate), the performance gap is both large and statistically significant, despite the fact that postwar history includes only 16 complete presidential terms. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters (such as differential trends or mean reversion), nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior TFP performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. Many other potential explanations are examined but fail to explain the partisan growth gap.
    JEL: E30 E60
    Date: 2014–07

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