nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2013‒12‒06
twenty-two papers chosen by
Bernardo Batiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Arguments from natural law reevaluated through a dialogue between legal history and legal theory By Dmitry Poldnikov
  2. Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012 By Guy Michaels; Ferdinand Rauch
  3. Subjective Public Rights in the Legal Philosophies of Russian Liberalism in the Early 20th Century By Anastasiya Tumanova
  4. The legacy of classical natural law in Russian dogmatic jurisprudence in the late 19th century By Dmitry Poldnikov
  5. MIT and Money By Perry Mehrling
  6. Paleoconservatism of the southern agrarians By Rodion Belkovich
  7. A critical regard to the history of econometrics By Erich Pinzón Fuchs
  9. The Bank of England and the British Economy 1890-1913 By N. H. Dimsdale
  10. The credibility of exchange rate pegs and bank distress in historical perspective: lessons from the national banking era By Scott Fulford; Felipe Schwartzman
  11. Equitable commerce: the mediaeval origins of American anarchism By Rodion Belkovich
  12. Demography and its vocabulary over the centuries: a digital exploration By François Héran
  13. Even keel and the Great Inflation By Owen F. Humpage; Sanchita Mukherjee
  14. mREITs and their risks By Sabrina R. Pellerin; Steven J. Sabol; John R. Walter
  15. Regional Variations in Attitudes Towards Refugees: Evidence from Great Britain By Stephen Drinkwater; Heaven Crawley; Rukhsana Kauser
  16. Health and the Economy in the United States, from 1750 to the Present By Dora Costa
  17. Autour d'Adam Smith : l'économie politique britannique et le républicanisme à la fin du XVIIIe siècle By Thomas Ruellou
  18. The Siting of UK Nuclear Power Installations By M.C. Grimston; W.J. Nuttall
  19. Aircraft maintenance operations: state of the art. By Van den Bergh, Jorne; De Bruecker, Philippe; Belien, Jeroen; Peeters, Jonas
  20. Immigrant Diversity and Economic Development in Cities: A Critical Review By Thomas Kemeny
  21. A teoria do mercado religioso : evidências empíricas da literatura By Oliveira, Livio Luiz Soares de; Neto, Giácomo Balbinotto
  22. The normativity of legal rules according to Eugen Ehrlich By Mikhail Antonov

  1. By: Dmitry Poldnikov (PhD, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, Higher School of Economics (Moscow))
    Abstract: The paper suggests several ways to rediscover the legacy of early modern and classical natural law of the 18th century in contemporary legal thought through the joint efforts of legal history and legal theory with particular reference to the domain of contract law. Additionally, the paper justifies the revival of the research in the domain of natural law in connection with legal argumentation
    Keywords: theory of law, legal history, interdisciplinary interaction, natural law, argumentation, civil law, contract law.
    JEL: K10
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Guy Michaels; Ferdinand Rauch
    Abstract: Do locational fundamentals such as coastlines and rivers determine town locations, or can historical events trap towns in unfavourable locations for centuries? We examine the effects on town locations of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire, which temporarily ended urbanization in Britain, but not in France. As urbanization recovered, medieval towns were more often found in Roman-era town locations in France than in Britain, and this difference still persists today. The resetting of Britain's urban network gave it better access to naturally navigable waterways when this was important, while many French towns remained without such access.
    Keywords: Economic Geography, Economic History, Path Dependence, Transportation
    JEL: R11 N93 O18
    Date: 2013–11
  3. By: Anastasiya Tumanova (Doctor of Law, Doctor of History, Professor, Faculty of Law, Leading Scientific Researcher, Centre for Studies of Civil Society and Nonprofit Sector, Higher School of Economics (Moscow))
    Abstract: This paper examines the doctrine of subjective public rights, which was developed by the legal phi-losophies of Russian Liberalism in Late Imperial Russia. This doctrine caused a revolution in the consciousness of law and order of the intellectual elite of the Russian Empire and influenced the liberation movement, the content of programs and activities of liberal political parties, and the State Duma of the Russian Empire. This paper is of interest to legal historians and historians of legal teachings, law theorists, and historians of intellectual thought. It is based on a wide range of sources, including scientific and journalistic works of liberal-minded Russian legal theorists, such as Pavel Novgorodtsev, Vladimir Gessen, Bogdan Kistyakovsky, Maksim Kovalevsky, and others, many of whom are for the first time introduced into scientific use in relation to the study of subjec-tive rights
    Keywords: History of state, law and legal thought of Late Imperial Russia, human rights and free-doms, law-based state, legal philosophies of Russian liberalism
    JEL: K
    Date: 2013
  4. By: Dmitry Poldnikov (PhD, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, Higher School of Economics (Moscow))
    Abstract: The paper examines the inconspicuous influence of the legacy of the classical natural law of the 18th century on Russian dogmatic jurisprudence of civil law, taking as an example the authoritative “Course on civil law” (1868-1880) by Konstantin Pobedonostsev. Despite the dogmatic purpose of the course and the hostility of its author towards European liberal doctrines of natural law, some striking similarities between them can be found, especially in the general provisions and principles of contract law, the method of its exposition and the recourse to justice and supra-positive ideal
    Keywords: legal history, dogmatic jurisprudence, natural law, civil law, contract law, principles, justice, Russia
    JEL: N93
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Perry Mehrling (Barnard College, Columbia University)
    Abstract: The Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951 and the subsequent rebuilding of private capital markets, first domestically and then globally, provided the shifting institutional background against which thinking about money and monetary policy evolved within the MIT economics department. Throughout that evolution, a constant, and a constraint, was the conception of monetary economics that Paul Samuelson had himself developed as early as 1937, a conception that informed the decision to bring in Modigliani in 1962, as well as Foley and Sidrauski in 1965.
    Keywords: MIT, monetary economics, Paul Samuelson
    JEL: B22 E50
    Date: 2013–10
  6. By: Rodion Belkovich (National Research University Higher School of Economics. Legal Theory and Comparative Law Department. Associate Professor)
    Abstract: The emergence of the Tea Party movement in recent years has shown that under the surface of mainstream political life in the USA there exists a different layer of ideas, which cannot be satisfactorily described in terms of the Republican/Democrat dichotomy. These ideas have their origins in the foundation of the American Republic, which owes a lot to ancient and mediaeval political theory. In the twentieth century there was a revival of these ideas in the form of the so-called “paleoconservative” movements which rediscovered their ancient and mediaeval heritage. This paper focuses on one of them, the Southern Agrarian movement, as exemplary of this radical intellectual project
    Keywords: paleoconservatism, southern agrarians, south, slavery, civil war.
    JEL: Z19
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Erich Pinzón Fuchs (UP1 UFR02 - Université Paris 1, Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR d'Économie - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne - PRES HESAM)
    Abstract: Econometrics has become such an obvious, objective - almost natural - tool that economists often forget that it has a history of its own, a complex and sometimes problematic history. Two works - Morgan (1990) and Qin (1993) - constitute the Received View of the history of econometrics. Basing our analysis on Leo Corry's methodological (and historiographical) framework of image and body of knowledge, the main purpose of this dissertation is to provide a critical account of the Received View. Our main criticism is that historians of econometrics have a particular image of knowledge that stems from within econometrics itself, generating a problem of reflexivity. This means that historians of econometrics would evaluate econometrics and its history from an econometrician point of view, determining very specific criteria of what should be considered as "true", what should be studied or what should be the questions that the scientific community should ask. This reflexive vision has conducted the Received View to write an internalist and funnel-shaped version of the History of Econometrics, presenting it as a lineal process progressing towards the best possible solution: Structural Econometrics and Haavelmo's Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). The present work suggests that a new history of econometrics is needed. A new history that would overcome the reflexivity problem yielding a certainly messier and convoluted but also richer vision of econometrics' evolution, rather than the lineal path towards progress presented by the Received View.
    Keywords: history of econometrics, economic methodology and philosophy, history of recent economic thought, quantification in economics, image and body of knowledge, reflexivity
    Date: 2013–06–11
  8. By: Moshe Justman (BGU); Karine van der Beck (BGU)
    Abstract: We draw on quantitative and descriptive data from Robert Campbell’s widely cited manual for prospective apprentices, The London Tradesman (1747), to demonstrate the responsiveness of apprenticeship in mid-eighteenth century London to market forces of supply and demand. We regress apprenticeship premiums on journeymen’s wages, set up costs and a selection of employment conditions and requirements across 178 trades, and find a significant elasticity of 0.4 with respect to wages and 0.25 with respect to set-up costs. We interpret this as supporting an economic model that views premiums as bounded from above by the expected benefits of acquiring the skills of the trade (Lane, 1996); bounded from below by the expected net training costs to the master, taking into account the possibility of the apprentice terminating his service prematurely (Wallis, 2008); and reflecting the relative bargaining power of master and parent. This supports the thesis that apprenticeship played an important role in adapting the English workforce to the skill requirements of the Industrial Revolution.
    Date: 2013
  9. By: N. H. Dimsdale (The Queens College, University of Oxford)
    Abstract: The paper examines the behavior of the British economy 1890-1913 by using a newly assembled quarterly data set. This provides a basis for estimating a small macroeconomic model, which can be used to explore the relationship between the policy responses of the Bank of England and the course of the economy. It is one of the few papers to make use of UK quarterly data and seeks to extend the earlier work of Goodhart (1972). The paper goes on to look into the determinants of external and internal gold flows and relates these to an extensive historical literature. The outcome is compared with the traditional representation of the working of the gold standard, as set out in the well-known Interim Report of the Cunliffe Committee (1918). It is found that operation of the model accords in general with the view of the Committee. The views of the Committee were applicable to the pre 1914 gold standard, but less so to the restored interwar gold standard. The next question to be considered is how far the Bank observed ‘The Rules of the Game’ in the sense of relating the reserves of the commercial banks to the gold reserves held at the Bank. It is shown that the relationship between the Bank’s reserves and the reserves of the commercial banks was severely distorted by the massive gold movements of 1895-6. These flows were associated with US political conflicts over the monetization of silver. With the exception of this episode, the Bank is shown to have had a limited measure of discretion in operating the gold standard. The final question to be considered is whether a similar model can be estimated from US data and related to the views of Friedman and Schwartz.
    Date: 2013–10–30
  10. By: Scott Fulford; Felipe Schwartzman
    Abstract: We examine a period during the prevalence of the gold standard in the United States to provide evidence that speculation about a currency peg can have damaging effects on bank balance sheets. In particular, the defeat of the pro-silver candidate in the 1896 presidential election was associated with a large and permanent increase in bank leverage, with the initial impact most pronounced among states where banks held more specie in proportion to their assets and were, therefore, also more committed to paying out deposits in specie. Based on the cross-sectional pattern of changes in leverage observed in 1896, we construct a measure of the credibility of the gold standard spanning the entire sample period. Changes in this measure correlate with changes in aggregate bank leverage, suggesting that uncertainty about the monetary standard played an important role in the 1893 banking panic and its aftermath.
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Rodion Belkovich (National Research University Higher School of Economics. Legal Theory and Comparative Law Department. Associate Professor)
    Abstract: Traditional ideas sometimes turn into revolutionary ones because of changing circumstances in which they continue to exist. Their revolutionary appearance, however, might be intentionally accentuated by the new followers of these ideas. Consequently, a legitimate and respectable tradition of thought becomes marginal and ridiculed. It is an aim of the history of political thought then to reveal the true origins of these ideas. This paper focuses on one such case, namely, the equitable commerce theory of the first American anarchist Josiah Warren. The study seeks to show that the novel character of this theory is overestimated and that an essentially conservative idea of just price lies in the foundation of the whole American anarchist movement
    Keywords: Josiah Warren, anarchism, individualism, just price, equitable commerce, paleoconservatism
    JEL: Z19
    Date: 2013
  12. By: François Héran (INED)
    Abstract: Our ideas about population have varied continuously over the centuries, as illustrated in the vocabulary changes detected by Ngram Viewer in the vast corpus of books digitized by Google. For example, the French word démographie, first coined in 1855, did not take off until after the Great War, in response to falling birth rates, as expressed by the term dénatalité. The 1960s were haunted by the threat of surpeuplement (over population). Assimilation des immigrés (immigrant assimilation) has never really been a central concept in France, unlike intégration des immigrés (immigrant integration), which gained popularity in the 1980s. Espérance de vie (life expectancy) is gaining ground and has overtaken taux de fécondité (fertility rate). Far from being certain and unchanging, our vision of population questions is marked by frequent discontinuities, the most recent dating from the 1980s.
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Owen F. Humpage; Sanchita Mukherjee
    Abstract: Using IV-GMM techniques and real-time data, we estimate a forward looking, Taylor-type reaction function incorporating dummy variables for even-keel operations and a variable for foreign official pressures on the U.S. gold stock during the Great Inflation.We show that when the Federal Reserve undertook even-keel operations to assist U.S. Treasury security sales, the FOMC tended to delay monetary-policy adjustments and to inject small amounts of reserves into the banking system.The operations, however, did not contribute significantly to the Great Inflation, because they occurred during periods of both monetary ease and monetary tightness, at least in the FOMC’s view.Consequently, the average federal funds rate during months containing even-keel events was no different than the average federal funds rate in other months, suggesting that even keel had no effect on the thrust of monetary policy.We also show that prospective gold losses had no effect on the FOMC’s monetary-policy decisions in the 1960s and early 1970s.
    Keywords: Inflation (Finance)
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Sabrina R. Pellerin; Steven J. Sabol; John R. Walter
    Abstract: This paper examines the history of mREITs and their broader role in the REIT industry. Additionally, it reviews how mREITs operate, how they are regulated, the risks they face, how they manage these risks, and the dangers they pose for the broader financial system.
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Stephen Drinkwater (Swansey University); Heaven Crawley (Swansea University); Rukhsana Kauser (University of Westminster)
    Abstract: This paper examines changes in public attitudes towards refugees across Britain over almost three decades using data from British Social Attitudes Surveys. It therefore covers the period when immigration as a whole has increased and the number of asylum applications reached their highest levels. The data are examined in periods before and after the rise in asylum applications and from a sub-national perspective because of possible differences in attitudes between areas, as well as in levels and types of inward migration. Overall, the British public appear to have become less tolerant towards refugees. This suggests that rising levels of immigration and asylum, a political discourse which positioned asylum as a particular problem in terms of the management of migration flows and accompanying press coverage have resulted in a hardening of opinions. These changes have occurred despite increased educational attainment amongst the British population, which might be expected to result in more liberal attitudes. The sub-national analysis indicates that people living in London and Scotland display the most tolerant views both before and after the increase in immigration and asylum. However, characteristics such as belonging to an ethnic minority group or possessing a degree, which are higher in London, account for a large portion of the regional variations. Controlling for such factors in regression analysis reduces the differentials relative to London, especially in more recent years.
    Keywords: Public attitudes, Regional variations, Immigration, Refugees
    JEL: F22 J15 R23
    Date: 2013–11
  16. By: Dora Costa
    Abstract: This review discusses theories of the health transition and examines how the health transition occurred in the United States, including changes in the distribution of health by socioeconomic status. I bring new data to bear on an extensive array of health indicators -- mortality, height, BMI, birth weight, and chronic conditions. I investigate the role in the health transition played by rising incomes and by scientific advances and their application and I will argue that the preponderance of the evidence shows that scientific advances have played an outsize role in the United States. I will examine how these scientific advances, which during the health transition took the form of expensive sanitation projects, were implemented. Fear of infection provided the political support for the financing of these projects, even when the poor were the primary beneficiaries. Because more recent scientific advances have taken the form of therapies targeted to chronic disease and because the importance of behavioral factors has grown, political support for expenditures aimed at the poor is likely to be lower. I will argue that while improvements in health raise productivity, these improvements are not necessarily a precondition for modern economic growth. The nature of the economy in which these improvements occur also matters. The gains to early life health are largest when the economy has moved from “brawn” to “brains” because this is when the wage returns to education are high, leading the healthy to obtain more education. Although the causal effect of education on health is still unclear, those who obtain more education may be better able to take advantage of new medical knowledge and therapies as they age. Analyses and theories of health therefore need to treat health as a dynamic variable. The review also suggests that future health can continue to improve provided that innovation continues. How to finance this innovation remains an issue, but in a rich society the value of even marginal improvements in health is higher than the value of the dramatic mortality declines of the health transition.
    JEL: I1 N30
    Date: 2013–11
  17. By: Thomas Ruellou (UP1 UFR02 - Université Paris 1, Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR d'Économie - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne - PRES HESAM)
    Abstract: Ce mémoire a pour objet d'étude le tournant que subit l'économie politique britannique à la fin du XVIIIe siècle, en termes de champ et de méthode. Partageant la critique des lectures quelques peu rapides des théories économiques attribuant à Smith une soi-disant "autonomisation" de l'économie vis-à-vis de la morale et de la politique, nous souhaitons au contraire montrer que ce tournant ne s'effectua qu'après sa mort. Ainsi, la contribution de Dugald Stewart est à ce titre essentielle en ce que, partant d'une relecture des ouvrages d'Adam Smith, elle fournit les bases à une restriction du champ de l'économie politique au regard de la philosophie politique, s'émancipant ainsi des questions de gouvernement. Pour appréhender ce tournant théorique, il convient de restituer la richesse de l'œuvre d'Adam Smith, en montrant qu'elle s'inscrit profondément dans le contexte philosophique et politique de son temps, et qu'elle prend un sens particulier lorsqu'on la lit au regard de ce contexte. Plus précisément, la philosophie politique dite "républicaine" qui parcourt les XVIIe et XVIIIe siècles britanniques est invoquée pour mettre à jour les ressorts de la critique du "système mercantile" et la justification du "système de la liberté naturelle" qui en découle. Nous montrons ainsi que la croissance de la production de richesses est selon Smith conditionnée par une certaine forme de gouvernement et par la liberté politique qui en dépend. De plus, le système de la liberté naturelle permettrait d'atteindre un idéal politique qui sous-tend les écrits de Smith. Son étude de l'histoire de l'Europe et de l'économie des colonies de l'Empire britannique fournit la base de notre argumentation. C'est donc toute une place accordée à la philosophie politique, touchant à un idéal de justice et de répartition des pouvoirs, qui sera évincée de l'économie politique avec Stewart. En effet, ce dernier rejette les questions constitutionnelles hors du champ de cette discipline, et n'accorde aux structures politiques aucun effet sur la production de richesses. Il s'inscrit ainsi en opposition à ceux qui, dans la décennie 1790, et principalement dans le champ politique, ont une lecture des œuvres de Smith différente de la sienne. Ces derniers, en se situant sur le terrain pratique, partagent l'étendue de la réflexion de Smith et lient leurs analyses économiques avec celles de la Constitution de l'État. Dans ce cas, nous voyons que la promotion de la liberté du commerce dépasse le cadre d'une position partisane en faveur d'une catégorie particulière de la population. Même s'ils demeurent plus critiques de la société commerciale que Smith, notamment sur les questions des vertus citoyennes, ils se rapprochent de lui et caractérisent une manière de penser qui sera évincée par Stewart. C'est sans doute parce que ce dernier se situe au carrefour entre les XVIIIe et le XIXe siècles, où la philosophie républicaine est en perte de vitesse, qu'il est l'un des premiers représentants de ceux qui accordent à la politique une place subalterne dans la théorie économique.
    Keywords: Adam Smith, économie politique britannique, républicanisme
    Date: 2013
  18. By: M.C. Grimston; W.J. Nuttall
    Abstract: Choosing a suitable site for a nuclear installation requires the consideration and balancing of several factors which are sometimes in tension with one another. One particularly interesting tension is a human and demographic one. On the one hand it is beneficial to place nuclear stations close to centres of population, to reduce transmission losses and other costs (including to the local environment) of transporting electricity over large distances from generator to consumer. On the other it is advantageous to place nuclear stations some distance away from such population centres in order to minimise the potential human consequences of a major release of radioactive materials in the (extremely unlikely) event of a major nuclear accident, not only in terms of direct exposure but also concerning the management of emergency planning, notably evacuation. This paper considers the emergence of policies aimed at managing this tension in the UK. In the first phase of nuclear development (roughly speaking 1945 to 1965) there was a highly cautious attitude, with installations being placed in remote rural locations with very low population density. The second phase (1965 to 1985) saw a more relaxed approach allowing Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactor construction closer to population centres (in ‘semi-urban’ locations, notably at Hartlepool and Heysham). In the third phase (1985 to 2005) there was very little new nuclear development, Sizewell B (the first and so far only pressurised water power reactor in the UK) being co-located with an early Magnox station on the rural Suffolk coast. However, there was considerable effort expended on trying to find a site for disposal of radioactive wastes. Renewed interest in nuclear new build grew from 2005 onwards and led to a number of sites being identified for new reactors before 2025; all having previously hosted nuclear stations and including the semi-urban locations of the 1960s and 1970s. Finally, some speculative comments are made as to what a ‘fifth phase’ starting in 2025 might look like.
    Keywords: Nuclear Power, Safety, Planning, Environmental Protection
    JEL: K32 L94 N74
    Date: 2013–11–27
  19. By: Van den Bergh, Jorne; De Bruecker, Philippe; Belien, Jeroen; Peeters, Jonas
    Abstract: This paper provides a survey on aircraft maintenance in operations research and management science. Although it is quite related with other airline operations such as flight or crew scheduling, literature on aircraft maintenance is clearly outnumbered in this research area. The literature is classified according to many fields that are related with the problem characteristics or the decisions that need to made. This paper tries to provide a clear overview of the different types of aircraft maintenance and their applications. The main contribution of this review, however, is to facilitate the tracing of the published work in relevant fields of interest. We also identify some trends in the available literature and indicate the areas which should be of interest for future research.
    Keywords: Aircraft maintenance; literature review;
    Date: 2013–11
  20. By: Thomas Kemeny
    Abstract: This paper reviews a growing literature investigating how 'immigrant' diversity relates to urban economic performance. As distinct from the labor-supply focus of much of the economics of immigration, this paper reviews work that examines how growing heterogeneity in the composition of the workforce may beneficially or harmfully affect the production of goods, services and ideas, especially in regional economies. Taking stock of the existing literature, the paper argues that the low-hanging fruit in this field has now been picked, and lays out a set of open issues that need to be taken up in future research in order to fulfil the promise of this work.
    Keywords: diversity, immigration, cities, regional economic performance
    JEL: O4 O15 O18 O31 R0 J28 J31
    Date: 2013–11
  21. By: Oliveira, Livio Luiz Soares de; Neto, Giácomo Balbinotto
    Abstract: This paper deals with the Religious Market Theory. Concepts are presented, drawn of Economics, as, for example, religious commodity, supply and demand for goods and religious services, competition and monopoly in religious market and the degree of regulation in the religious market. We also presented definitions of religious organizations and its types, concepts of religious compensators, and the possible consequences of government intervention in the religious market. The main contribution of this paper is a review of the literature, based on the results of empirical tests, on main premise of Religious Market Theory, this is, that there is a positive correlation between religious pluralism and religious attendance.
    Keywords: Religious Market, monopoly, religious pluralism
    JEL: D11 Z12
    Date: 2013–11–13
  22. By: Mikhail Antonov (National Research University Higher School of Economics (St. Petersburg). Associate Professor of Law)
    Abstract: In this paper the author questions the role of Eugen Ehrlich's sociological jurisprudence for contemporary debates regarding the sources of binding rules that have their (ontological) foundation in societal practices, but whose validity cannot be extracted from these practices. The question on the normativity of legal rules for Ehrlich was not identical with the thesis on the normativity of social practices and the patterns of behavior that are capable of having a biding force if fixed in a legally recognized form (i.e., recognized by the legal community). As a result, the process of norm-creation requires an intellectual reconstruction of these practices and patterns by jurists, judges, and legislators who reshape societal relations into legal ones with the help of particular intellectual images. It is this reshaping that gives rise to legal rules. The process of such reconstruction cannot be anything but intellectual, and therefore cannot be conceived of without reference to the creative work of lawyers. Consequently, legal rules cannot emerge directly from societal practices. The practices in which the lawyers are engaged or which they simply contemplate, can influence their creative activity, but cannot replace it, and thus cannot provide a mechanical transformation of the factual into the intellectual or normative
    Keywords: sociology of law, living law, official law, normativity, binding force of law
    JEL: K1
    Date: 2013

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