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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2013‒10‒25
twenty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Committee, Nobel Prize (Nobel Prize Committee) |
| Abstract: | The behavior of asset prices is essential for many important decisions, not only for professional investors but also for most people in their daily life. The choice between saving in the form of cash, bank deposits or stocks, or perhaps a single-family house, depends on what one thinks of the risks and returns associated with these different forms of saving. Asset prices are also of fundamental importance for the macroeconomy because they provide crucial information for key economic decisions regarding physical investments and consumption. While prices of financial assets often seem to reflect fundamental values, history provides striking examples to the contrary, in events commonly labeled bubbles and crashes. Mispricing of assets may contribute to financial crises and, as the recent recession illustrates, such crises can damage the overall economy. Given the fundamental role of asset prices in many decisions, what can be said about their determinants? |
| Keywords: | asset prices; |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2013–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nobelp:2013_001&r=his |
| By: | Richard S. Grossman (Dept of Economics, Wesleyan University&Institute for Quantitiative Social Science, Harvard University); Ronan C. Lyone (Trinity College, Dublin&Balliol College, Oxford); Kevin Hjortshoj O'Rourke (All Souls College, Oxford, CEPR & NBER & IIIS, Trinity College Dublin); Madalina A. Ursu (London School of Economics, UK) |
| Abstract: | Information on the performance of equities during the latter part of the globalized long nineteenth century is scarce, particularly for smaller European economies such as Ireland. Using a dataset of over 35,000 price-year observations from the Investor’s Monthly Manual, this paper constructs new monthly Irish stock market price indices for the period 1864-1930, encompassing periods of significant economic and political turmoil in Irish history. In addition to a total marker index covering all 118 equity securities issued by 94 companies, sector-specific indices are present for railways, financial services, companies, and miscellaneous industrial and retail companies. Weighted for market capitalization, nominal equity prices were largely static in the 1860s, before increasing by almost 60% in normal terms between 1870 and 1878. Between 1878 and 1879, equity prices fell by one sixth in the space of a year, after which there was a spectacular rise in equity prices for two decades, with equity prices in 1899 twice what they had been in 1864. Between the turn of the century and the outbreak of the Great War, though, prices fell by 25%, a pattern that stands in stark contrast to returns on the London exchange, which were greater during 1894-1913 then during the preceding two decades. The period from 1914 and 1929 saw a number of boom-bust cycles, concurrent with the war and other political events affecting Ireland, including its independence movement. Railway equities, which had trebled between the mid-1860s and the turn of the century, fell sharply during the 1910s and 1920s. In contrast financial equity prices – which were just 20% higher in 1920 than in 1864 – rose strongly during the 1920s. Overall, the average annual gain in equity prices over the period was just 0.9%, well bellow levels associated with an equity premium puzzle. |
| Keywords: | Irish stock exchange; Investor's Monthly Manual; long-run stock returns; 19th Century; 20th Century; Ireland |
| JEL: | E3 G12 N23 N24 |
| Date: | 2013–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:esohwp:_120&r=his |
| By: | Karine van der Beek (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) |
| Abstract: | In his seminal book, The Enlightened Economy, Joel Mokyr argued that "in Britain the high quality of workmanship available to support innovation, local and imported, helped create the Industrial Revolution". By these, Mokyr refers to "the top 3-5 percent of the labor force in terms of skills: engineers, mechanics, millwrights, chemists, clock- and instrument makers, skilled carpenters and metal workers, wheelwrights, and similar workmen." This article provides empirical evidence from different sources that supports Mokyr's claim. Mainly, I use evidence on apprenticeship that covers all England between 1710 and 1770 and show that in the eighteenth century the most relevant occupation within this group of "high-quality workmen" was the wright, a workmen who "Erects and installs, in place of use, machinery and other mechanical equipment". I find that the share of apprentices bind to wrights, carpenters, joiners and turners increased throughout the eighteenth century. These findings indicate that this was the relevant group of workmen in a period of mechanization and technological change. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Revolution, skills, high quality workmen, wrights, mechanization, apprenticeship |
| JEL: | N13 N33 O30 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2013-15&r=his |
| By: | Karine van der Beek (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev); Moshe Justman (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) |
| Abstract: | We draw on quantitative and descriptive data from Robert Campbell's widely cited manual for prospective apprentices, The London Tradesman (1747), to demonstrate the responsiveness of apprenticeship in mid-eighteenth century London to market forces of supply and demand. We regress apprenticeship premiums on journeymen's wages, set up costs and a selection of employment conditions and requirements across 178 trades, and find a significant elasticity of 0.4 with respect to wages and 0.25 with respect to set-up costs. We interpret this as supporting an economic model that views premiums as bounded from above by the expected benefits of acquiring the skills of the trade (Lane, 1996); bounded from below by the expected net training costs to the master, taking into account the possibility of the apprentice terminating his service prematurely (Wallis, 2008); and reflecting the relative bargaining power of master and parent. This supports the thesis that apprenticeship played an important role in adapting the English workforce to the skill requirements of the Industrial Revolution. Moreover, by demonstrating the internal and external consistency of Campbell's observations, our findings support their further use as a unique, invaluable source of detailed, trade-specific wage data from the early years of the Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | premium, wages, setting-up costs, human capital, industrial revolution, apprenticeship, Campbell, Eighteenth century England |
| JEL: | K31 N33 O15 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2013-14&r=his |
| By: | Mikolaj Malinowski |
| Abstract: | This research contributes to the debate on economic growth and income inequalities in early modern Europe by estimating real wages expressed in subsistence-ratios in the rural and urban sectors of the Kingdom of Poland. Furthermore, a method of weighting the wages with data on the employment structure is outlined and implemented. A comparison of the Polish-weighted real wages with the English and Italian suggests two waves of supremacy of the North Sea Region. The first divergence occurred prior to the early modern period and the second resumed in the 17th century. The paper incorporates non-wage-earning farmers and agricultural workers paid partially in kind into the analytical framework. |
| Keywords: | Real Wages, Little Divergence, Pre-industrial economic growth, Poland |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0043&r=his |
| By: | Saleh, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | The correlation between religion and socioeconomic status is observed throughout the world. In the Middle East, local non-Muslims are, on average, better off than the Muslim majority. I trace the origins of the phenomenon in Egypt to a historical process of self-selection across religions, which was induced by an economic incentive: the imposition of the poll tax on non-Muslims upon the Islamic Conquest of the then-Coptic Christian Egypt in 640. The tax, which remained until 1856, led to the conversion of poor Copts to Islam to avoid paying the tax, and to the shrinking of Copts to a better off minority. Using a sample of men of rural origin from the 1848- 68 census manuscripts, I find that districts with historically stricter poll tax enforcement (measured by Arab immigration to Egypt in 640-900), and/or lower attachment to Coptic Christianity before 640 (measured by the legendary route of the Holy Family), have fewer, yet better off, Copts in 1848-68. Combining historical narratives with a dataset on occupations and religion in 640-1517 from the Arabic Papyrology Database, and a dataset on Coptic churches and monasteries in 1200 and 1500 from medieval sources, I demonstrate that the cross-district findingsreflect the persistence of the Copts’ initial occupationalshift, towards white-collar jobs, and spatial shift, towards the Nile Valley. Both shifts occurred in 640-900, where most conversions to Islam took place, and where the poll tax burden peaked. Occupational barriers to entry and the religiously segregated schools both led occupations to persist in 900-1848. |
| Keywords: | Religion; poll tax; persistence; conversion; Middle East |
| JEL: | N35 O15 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:27565&r=his |
| By: | Fratini, Saverio M. |
| Abstract: | The classical economists usually regarded rent in their analyses as a share of the gross product obtained from the use of land or a mine, which was indeed the way in which rent was treated in bargaining between landowner and tenant. The paper revives this view of rent, proceeding from its historical basis through Smith’s analysis to arrive at Sraffa’s equations, and also examines the case of the introduction of a tax conceived as a tithe, to which Sraffa referred very briefly |
| Keywords: | Rent, Classical theory of distribution, Smith, Sraffa |
| JEL: | B12 B51 D33 Q15 |
| Date: | 2013–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50717&r=his |
| By: | Hansen, Casper Worm (Department of Economics and Business); Lønstrup, Lars (Department of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study documents that the growth in life expectancy over the 20th century decreased per capita GDP growth and increased population growth. By exploiting significant advances in medical technologies, starting to diffuse in the 1940s, the analysis establishes that countries with higher levels of infectious-disease mortality prior to the medical breakthrough experienced higher growth rates in life expectancy and population size, and lower growth rates in per capita GDP in the time after the medical breakthroughs. These findings are robust to the inclusion of initial life expectancy and initial GDP per capita. The evidence presented here therefore complements the conclusions inferred in the research by Acemoglu and Johnson (2007). |
| Keywords: | Life expectancy; health shock; long-run economic growth |
| JEL: | I10 J11 O40 |
| Date: | 2013–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2013_016&r=his |
| By: | Joshua S. Gans; Fiona Murray |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the role of the allocation of scientific credit in determining the organization of science. We examine changes in that organization and the nature of credit allocation in the past half century. Our contribution is a formal model of that organizational choice that considers scientist decisions to integrate, collaborate or publish and how credit should be allocated to foster efficient outcomes. |
| JEL: | O32 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19538&r=his |
| By: | Christiaan van Bochove; Heidi Deneweth; Jaco Zuijderduijn |
| Abstract: | Mortgage markets in developing economies are often confined to private networks. Inadequate registration of property rights has been blamed for this, but it is questionable whether registration provides a simple and complete solution. This paper addresses this issue by analysing the Low Countries, where registration was organised well, and England, where registration was organised poorly, between 1300 and 1800. These historical cases show that registration was important but did neither provide a simple nor a complete solution for the emergence of broad mortgage markets. Successful historical markets took considerable time to appear and also addressed mortgage law and financial intermediation. |
| Keywords: | mortgages, Europe, pre-industrial period |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0042&r=his |
| By: | Jaco Zuijderduijn |
| Abstract: | Data on vital events of medieval women are extremely scarce. We use a dataset based on a necrology of nuns in late-medieval Holland to arrive at estimates for the development of life expectancy and mortality. The first study of its kind for the Low Countries, it shows striking differences in the development of life expectancy and mortality between Holland and England. In the fifteenth century, life expectancy at age 25 in Holland was much higher than in England. Also, mortality among our population of nuns was much lower than among monks in England, and mortality crises were less frequent. Our result support claims by Van Bavel and Van Zanden (2003) about the relatively early recovery of the population of Holland, as well as the mild impact of infectious diseases. The comparison with England suggests that this country’s crisis of the late Middle Ages was most likely the result of a high-mortality demographic regime. |
| Keywords: | life expectancy, women, Middle Ages |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0044&r=his |
| By: | Bruno Dorin (CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD], CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Michel Benoit-Cattin (CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD]) |
| Abstract: | This paper questions the Lewis Path perspective of a "world without agriculture" which underpins the "structural transformation" paradigm of "modern growth." It shows that the Lewis Path is only one of four potential structural paths, and that half of the world's population is spiralling into a "Lewis Trap" with more farmers and an increasing income gap between them and other workers. After showing how land constraints and the productivity dynamics outside agriculture might prevent this population from switching to a Lewis Path, it delineates the condition of an alternative path that would not transfer the disparity problem to cities. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture; Productivity; Development; Structural transformation; Poverty; Agro-Ecology |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-00866413&r=his |
| By: | Gary Gorton |
| Abstract: | An examination of U.S. banking history shows that economically efficient private bank money requires that information-revealing securities markets for bank liabilities be closed. That is, banks are optimally opaque, which is why they are regulated and examined. I show this by examining the transition from private bank notes, the predominant form of money before the U.S. Civil War, to demand deposits and show that markets endogenous closed. The opacity of bank money in the recent financial crisis is also briefly discussed. |
| JEL: | E32 E41 E42 E44 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19540&r=his |
| By: | Wolz, Axel |
| Abstract: | Up to the end of World War II, the political-economic framework had been relatively similar all over Germany. However, the farm structure was different. While in both parts, the West and the East, about 90 per cent of all farms cultivated less than 20 ha and about one per cent more than 100 ha, the large fams cultivated about 7 per cent of the agricultural area in the West, but about 30 per cent in the East. Following the unconditional surrender of Germany in 1945 and its division by the four Allies, the differences in the organisation of agricultural production between East and West became more pronounced. In the Soviet Occupation Zone and then with the creation of the German Democratic Republic in October 1949, the socialist model of agricultural production was introduced in three phases: (1) an enforced land reform between 1945-49; (2) the repression of farmers cultivating more than 20 ha, starting in 1949, and finally (3) the collectivization of agricultural production starting in 1952 and finalised in the Socialist Spring in April 1960. While socialist agriculture had been built up on blood and tears, it came to be fully accepted by the East German population over time and heavily defended also by those political forces which pushed for a regime change in 1989. With the collapse of the socialist regime in 1989 and German reunification in 1990, socialist agriculture had to be transformed into a system compatible with pluralistic democracy and market economy. Similarly, those whose assets had been confiscated were supposed to be restituted. However, the legal system at reunification differentiated between those who were expropriated either before 1945 or after 1949 and those between 1945 and 1949 under Soviet occupation. While the first group was entitled to restitution, the latter group received little compensation. At the time of transition, most politicians and agricultural economists assumed that family farming would re-emerge in the East and the modes of agricultural production would adjust between the two parts. However, even more than two decades after reunification, German agriculture is characterized by two distinguished different agricultural production systems. While West German agriculture continued the tradition of small-scale family farms relying on family labour, East German agriculture is characterised by large-scale corporate farms relying on permanently employed labour. In this way, German agriculture can be characterised as One country - Two systems. -- Bis zum Ende des 2. Weltkriegs waren die politischen Rahmen in ganz Deutschland einheitlich. Allerdings gab es Unterschiede in der Organisation der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion zwischen dem westlichen und östlichen Teil. Zwar umfassten in beiden Teilen ca. 90 Prozent der Betriebe weniger als 20 ha und ca. ein Prozent mehr als 100 ha, doch bewirtschafteten die größten Betriebe im Westen ca. sieben Prozent der landwirtschaftlichen Nutzfläche, im Osten jedoch ca. 30 Prozent. In Folge der bedingungslosen Kapitulation Deutschlands sowie der Aufteilung in vier Besatzungszonen wurden diese Unterschiede in den folgenden Jahrzehnten weiter verstärkt. In der Sowjetischen Besatzungszone und später der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik wurde in drei Phasen ein sozialistisches Modell der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion geschaffen: (1) entschädigungslose Enteignung von Gutsbesitzern und Nazi-Kollaborateuren im Zuge der Bodenreform von 1945 bis 1949; (2) Beseitigung des Groß- und Mittelbauerntums ab 1949; sowie (3) Kollektivierung durch Bildung von Landwirtschaftlichen Produktionsgenossenschaften ab 1952, die mit dem Sozialistischen Frühling im April 1960 abgeschlossen war. Die sozialistische Landwirtschaft wurde mit Blut und Tränen aufgebaut. Im Laufe der Jahre wurde sie jedoch von der Bevölkerung völlig akzeptiert. So wurde sie nach 1989 auch von jenen politischen Gruppen verteidigt, die auf einen Sturz des Regimes hingearbeitet hatten. Nach dem Zusammenbruch des sozialistischen Regimes musste auch die Landwirtschaft nach marktwirtschaftlich konformen Prinzipien organisiert werden. Die zwangsenteigneten Betriebsmittel und Vermögen mussten an ihre ursprünglichen Besitzer zurückgegeben bzw. privatisiert werden. Allerdings wurde juristisch zwei Gruppen unterschieden: (1) diejenigen, die entweder vor 1945 sowie nach 1949 enteignet wurden und (2) diejenigen, die zwischen 1945 und 1949 während der sowjetischen Besatzung enteignet wurden. Während die erste Gruppe einen Rechtsanspruch auf Rückgabe des Vermögens hatte, gab es für die zweite nur einen auf eine relativ geringe Entschädigung. Die meisten Politiker und Agrarökonomen gingen in der Anfangsphase der Transformation davon aus, dass sich in Ostdeutschland schnell Familienbetriebe entwickeln und somit die Organisation der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion in beiden Teilen Deutschlands angleichen würde. Mehr als zwei Jahrzehnte nach der Wiedervereinigung ist die Landwirtschaft jedoch in zwei unterschiedlichen Systemen organisiert. In Westdeutschland dominieren weiterhin kleinstrukturierte Familienbetriebe. In Ostdeutschland herrschen großstrukturierte Betriebe vor, die als juristische Personen registriert sind und primär festangestellte Arbeitskräfte beschäftigen. In diesem Sinne kann man die Landwirtschaft in Deutschland als Ein Land - Zwei Systeme beschreiben. |
| Keywords: | organisation of agricultural production,Soviet Occupation Zone,German Democratic Republic,reunification,Germany |
| JEL: | N54 P32 Q1 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:139&r=his |
| By: | Carmen Sarasúa (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo trata sobre la edad a la que niños y niñas accedían al trabajo remunerado en la España del siglo XVIII. Utilizando como fuente los Memoriales del Catastro de Ensenada (1751-1753), se propone la edad de diez años como edad media de acceso, a partir de la cual se puede calcular la tasa de actividad. La Mancha era una región rica en industria rural, sobre todo de manufacturas textiles, que abastecían al mercado madrileño, el de otras ciudades e incluso al colonial, y que generaban una fuerte demanda de trabajo femenino. Esta estructura productiva explica por qué las niñas se incorporaban al trabajo remunerado antes que los niños, por qué eran escolarizadas desde muy pequeñas en las ‘escuelas de labor’ y no en las escuelas de primeras letras como los niños, y por qué, en definitiva, sus tasas de alfabetización un siglo después eran inferiores a la ya muy baja media femenina española. En la España del siglo XVIII mujeres y niñas estaban masivamente empleadas en las manufacturas, sobre todo textiles, como ocurría en gran parte de Europa. Entender y contabilizar el trabajo realizado por mujeres y niñas, mucho más difundido de lo que se cree habitualmente, y centrado en manufacturas y servicios, transforma nuestra visión de la estructura de la actividad en la España pre-industrial, normalmente identificada con el trabajo agrícola y ganadero.. |
| Keywords: | desarrollo económico, historia económica, tasa de actividad femenina, tasa de actividad masculina, trabajo infantil, edad de acceso al trabajo |
| JEL: | J01 J16 J21 N33 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:1309&r=his |
| By: | Loïc Charles; Christine Théré |
| Abstract: | From 1759 to 1762, François Quesnay had systematically appealed to an obscure physiocrat, Charles Richard de Butré, when he had to make a numerical estimate or to do a nonelementary computation. In the present article, we use two important unpublished writings by Butré to discuss and assess the extent of his contribution to physiocratic theory. In these two works written at the end of 1766 and the beginning of 1767, Butré set himself to the task of deepening Quesnay’s political economy. Although he was, besides Quesnay, the only physiocrat who mastered the Tableau économique, he chose to develop his own analytical devices. In order to provide a more satisfactory presentation of the doctrine of the exclusive productivity of agriculture, Butré modified significantly the social classification adopted by Quesnay and all the other physiocrats. Finally, he imagined and drafted a theoretical system of public accounting that would measure and account for all kinds of economic activities, including those Quesnay had left out in his Tableau économique, such as external trade. We argue that the study of his work offers us an ideal vantage point to broaden our understanding of the nature and the history of Quesnay’s political economy. |
| Keywords: | Physiocracy ; Physiocratic Theory ; François Quesnay ; Charles Richard de Butré ; Tableau économique |
| JEL: | B11 B31 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2013-32&r=his |
| By: | Pasali, Selahattin Selsah |
| Abstract: | A likely image of the current state of the literature on financial sector development is that of a Swiss cheese with many holes inside important areas of knowledge. The aim of this synthesis paper is to map the current knowledge and ignorance (i.e., holes) in the literature by providing a narrative for the empirical findings of a comprehensive literature review concerning the quantitative effects of financial development on economic growth and employment, and various determinants of financial sector development. The literature was restricted mostly to high-quality academic research that focuses on developing countries over the period 1960-2012. Because of data constraints, this review also includes cross-country analyses, in which developed and developing countries are considered together. The main findings include (i) a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth and employment, subject to a number of qualifications; (ii) a complicated relationship of regulations and supervision to financial sector development; and (iii) a positive relationship between an enabling institutional environment and financial sector development. This review also identifies some missing avenues in the literature and provides a number of suggestions for future work. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Access to Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Emerging Markets,Economic Theory&Research |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6655&r=his |
| By: | Crawley, Heaven (Swansea University); Drinkwater, Stephen (Swansea University); Kauser, Rukhsana (University of Westminster) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines changes in public attitudes towards refugees across Britain over almost three decades using data from British Social Attitudes Surveys. It therefore covers the period when immigration as a whole has increased and the number of asylum applications reached their highest levels. The data are examined in periods before and after the rise in asylum applications and from a sub-national perspective because of possible differences in attitudes between areas, as well as in levels and types of inward migration. Overall, the British public appear to have become less tolerant towards refugees. This suggests that rising levels of immigration and asylum, a political discourse which positioned asylum as a particular problem in terms of the management of migration flows and accompanying press coverage have resulted in a hardening of opinions. These changes have occurred despite increased educational attainment amongst the British population, which might be expected to result in more liberal attitudes. The sub-national analysis indicates that people living in London and Scotland display the most tolerant views both before and after the increase in immigration and asylum. However, characteristics such as belonging to an ethnic minority group or possessing a degree, which are higher in London, account for a large portion of the regional variations. Controlling for such factors in regression analysis reduces the differentials relative to London, especially in more recent years. |
| Keywords: | public attitudes, regional variations, immigration, refugees |
| JEL: | F22 J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7647&r=his |
| By: | Markus Eberhardt |
| Abstract: | This paper employs novel time series methods to investigate the presence of nonlinearities in the long-run relationship between public debt and growth, analysing annual series for the United States, Great Britain, Japan and Sweden from the 1800s to 2008. We find only limited evidence for a nonlinear long-run relationship in these countries and further cannot support the notion that the equilibrium debt-growth relationship is identical across countries. Both results weaken the case for a common 90% or indeed any common debt/GDP threshold recently popularised by the work of Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and others. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; public debt; nonlinearity; summability, balance and co-summability |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcfc:13/06&r=his |
| By: | Delphine Guex (Group of Research in Territorial Economy GRET, Faculty of Letters and Human Sciences, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Cet article propose une approche originale dans la compréhension des trajectoires socio-économiques de stations touristiques. Elle s’appuie sur la synthèse d’une étude de cas détaillée, celui de la station de Montreux, en Suisse, de 1850 à aujourd’hui. Deux types de phénomènes dynamiques sont présentés sous forme de concepts complémentaires. D’une part, le concept de « mise en scène » est mobilisé pour rendre compte des interactions entre les acteurs impliqués dans la valorisation de la station. D’autre part, le concept de « convention touristique alpine » est introduit pour comprendre le contexte dans lequel prennent localement place ces interactions. Il en ressort que la valeur des biens et services touristiques produits dans un territoire dépend d’authenticité et de modernité, des constantes conventionnelles appréciées sous différents angles aux différentes époques par les différents acteurs. La trajectoire de la station résulte ainsi des équilibres scéniques perpétuellement (ré-) établis par les acteurs, dynamique au cœur de laquelle la notion d’héritage joue un rôle central. |
| Keywords: | Station, Histoire, Convention touristique alpine, Mise en scène, Héritage |
| JEL: | R11 N93 N94 L83 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nct:wpaper:10-13&r=his |
| By: | Fenske, James; Kala, Namrata |
| Abstract: | African societies exported more slaves in colder years. Lower temperatures reduced mortality and raised agricultural yields, lowering slave supply costs. Our results help explain African participation in the slave trade, which predicts adverse outcomes today. We use an annual panel of African temperatures and port-level slave exports to show that exports declined when local temperatures were warmer than normal. This result is strongest where African ecosystems are least resilient to climate change. Cold weather shocks at the peak of the slave trade predict lower economic activity today. We support our interpretation using the histories of Whydah, Benguela, and Mozambique. |
| Keywords: | Africa, climate change, slave trade, temperature |
| JEL: | N57 O10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50816&r=his |