nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2013‒10‒18
24 papers chosen by
Bernardo Batiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. The Quantitative Cape: Notes from a new Histriography of the Dutch Cape Colony By Johan Fourie
  2. Accounting for breakout in Britain: The Industrial Revolution through a Malthusian lens By Alexander Tepper; Karol Jan Borowiecki
  3. Russian Serfdom, Emancipation, and Land Inequality: New Evidence By Steven Nafziger
  4. The principal problem in political economy: income distribution in the history of economic thought. By Sandmo, Agnar
  5. The Impact of the Slave Trade on Literacy in Africa: Evidence from the Colonial Era By Nonso Obikili
  6. The Educational Legacy of the Greatest Generation: Paternal Military Service and Baby Boomer Educational Progress By Kimbrough, Gray
  7. Regional Integration and Firm Location Choices: A Long Run Approach to the Cork Industry in the Iberian Peninsula By Francisco Parejo; Amélia Branco; João Carlos Lopes; José Rangel Preciado
  8. The Political Economy of Textbook Writing : Paul Samuelson and the making of the first Ten Editions of Economics (1945-1976) By Yann Giraud
  9. Economics for the Masses: The Visual Display of Economic Knowledge in the United States (1921-1945) By Yann Giraud; Loïc Charles
  10. Partisan News before Fox: Newspaper Partisanship and Partisan Polarization, 1881-1972 By Groeling, Tim; Baum, Matthew
  11. The F.T.C., Oligopoly, and Shared Monopoly By Scherer, F. M.
  12. Development, Structure, and Transformation: Some Evidence on Comparative Economic Growth By Gordon C. McCord; Jeffrey D. Sachs
  13. Religious Identity and the Provision of Public Goods: Evidence from the Indian Princely States. By Latika Chaudhary; Jared Rubin
  14. Reciprocity as the foundation of Financial Economics By Timothy C. Johnson
  15. Russian Peasants and Politicians: The Political Economy of Local Agricultural Support in Nizhnii Novgorod Province, 1864-1914 By Steven Nafziger
  16. On the Road to Heaven: Self-Selection, Religion, and Socio-Economic Status By Saleh, Mohamed
  17. The Legal Origins of Corporate Social Responsibility By Leonardo Becchetti; Rocco Ciciretti; Pierluigi Conzo
  18. Patents, Monopoly Power, and the Pricing of Pharmaceuticals in Low-Income Nations By Scherer, F. M.
  19. The decline of the U.S. labor share By Michael W.L. Elsby; Bart Hobijn; Aysegül Sahin
  20. Banking in Transition Countries By John Bonin; Iftekhar Hasan; Paul Wachtel
  21. Radio and the rise of the Nazis in prewar Germany By Adena, Maja; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria; Santarosa, Veronica; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  22. The East-West gradient in spatial population development within Germany: temporary GDR legacy vs. longstanding spatial disparities By Sebastian Klüsener; Emilio Zagheni
  23. Italy’s Growth and Decline, 1861-2011 By Emanuele Felice; Giovanni Vecchi
  24. How Rebellion Expands? From Periphery to Heartland By Nakao, Keisuke

  1. By: Johan Fourie
    Abstract: The digitisation and transcription of rich archival sources and the use of statistical techniques combined with modern computing power, have, over the last decade, allowed social scientists to reinterpret eighteenth-century Cape history. This review essay summarises the main results from the burgeoning literature; assesses whether these new studies refute or support earlier hypotheses; shows how new quantitative evidence can inform our understanding of the process of economic development; and appeals to historians and economists to learn the language of the other.
    Keywords: Eighteenth century, Cape Colony, Dutch East India Company
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:371&r=his
  2. By: Alexander Tepper; Karol Jan Borowiecki
    Abstract: This paper develops a simple dynamic model to examine the breakout from a Malthusian economy to a modern growth regime. It identifies several factors that determine the fastest rate at which the population can grow without engendering declining living standards; this is termed maximum sustainable population growth. We then apply the framework to Britain and find a dramatic increase in sustainable population growth at the time of the Industrial Revolution, well before the beginning of modern levels of income growth. The main contributions to the British breakout were technological improvements and structural change away from agricultural production, while coal, capital, and trade played a minor role.
    Keywords: Population aging ; Demography ; Industrial capacity ; Industrial productivity ; Industrial organization (Economic theory) ; Economic history ; Great Britain
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:639&r=his
  3. By: Steven Nafziger (Department of Economics, Williams College)
    Abstract: Serfdom is often viewed as a major institutional constraint on the economic development of Tsarist Russia, one that persisted well after emancipation occurred in 1861 through the ways that property rights were transferred to the peasantry. However, scholars have generally asserted this causal relationship with few facts in hand. This paper introduces a variety of newly collected data, covering European Russia at the district (uezd) level, to describe serfdom, emancipation, and the subsequent evolution of land holdings among the rural population into the 20th century. A series of simple empirical exercises describes several important ways that the institution of serfdom varied across European Russia; outlines how the emancipation reforms differentially affected the minority of privately owned serfs relative to the majority of other types of peasants; and connects these differences to long-run variation in land ownership, obligations, and inequality. The evidence explored in this paper constitutes the groundwork for considering the possible channels linking the demise of serfdom to Russia’s slow pace of economic growth prior to the Bolshevik Revolution.
    Keywords: Russia, economic history, serfdom, inequality, land reform, institutions
    JEL: N33
    Date: 2013–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2013-14&r=his
  4. By: Sandmo, Agnar (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: The paper considers the history of theories of income distribution, from the time of Adam Smith until the 1970s. It is divided into two main parts. Part I considers the positive theory of income distribution, beginning with the classical economists’ analysis of the functional distribution of income between wages, profits and rent. It goes on to present the new theories that emerged with the marginalist revolution and which were based on maximizing behaviour and market equilibrium. The main focus during the early stages of the new developments was on the markets for consumer goods and the role of marginal utility in price determination. The later neoclassical economists, including Alfred Marshall and Knut Wicksell, paid more attention to the special features that characterized the labour market and the role of marginal productivity in wage formation. In the 20th century the neoclassical theory was extended to include analysis of the role of imperfect competition, human capital and risk-taking. Also included in this part of the paper is a discussion of statistical and institutional approaches. Part II covers normative theories of income distribution and their implications for redistributive policy. It begins with a consideration of the value judgements implicit in the policy recommendations of the classical economists and continues with the attempts to establish an analytical foundation for welfare economics. The rise of Paretian welfare theory with its emphasis on the impossibility of interpersonal comparisons of utility made it difficult to draw conclusions regarding income redistribution, but the older utilitarian approach, including equal sacrifice theories, continued to live on in the modern analysis of optimal redistribution. A short Part III contains some concluding reflections on the position of income distribution theory within economics as a whole.
    Keywords: Functional and personal income distribution; distributive justice; redistribution policy.
    JEL: B10 B20 D30 D63
    Date: 2013–09–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2013_015&r=his
  5. By: Nonso Obikili
    Abstract: Recent studies have highlighted the importance of Africa's history of slave exporting to its current economic development. In this paper I show that differences in investment in education may be one of the channels through which that history has affected current development. I combine data on literacy rates of administrative districts from the colonial censuses of Nigeria and Ghana from the 1950's with data on slave exports of different ethnic groups. I find a negative and signicant relationship between slave export intensity before the colonial era and literacy rates during the colonial era. I also use contemporary data on literacy rates from the 2010 Nigerian Literacy Survey and find that this negative relationship is still present and significant. Thus, I show that the slave trades affected development through channels other than inter-ethnic group confliict or formal nation-state level institutions.
    Keywords: Africa, Slave trades, Human Capital, Development
    JEL: O10 N37 N97 I25
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:378&r=his
  6. By: Kimbrough, Gray (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: The American "high school movement" of the early 20th century resulted in a dramatic rise in high school graduation rates, a trend that continued into the middle of the century interrupted only by World War II. Previous work has characterized the pre-World War II transformation of secondary education, but less attention has been focused on the continued increased in educational attainment after the War, culminating in Baby Boomer children graduating from high school at a greater rate than any previous generation. High rates of military service and subsequent subsidies for factors shown to be associated with children's educational attainment o er a possible explanation. In this paper, I link Baby Boomer children to their fathers using IPUMS data to examine this relationship. Through linear regression and propensity score matching, I find that father's veteran status is associated with greater educational attainment for children. Exploiting discontinuities in military service, I further examine the exogeneity of this relationship, but I am unable to provide strong evidence that this is due to an exogenous effect of military service and GI Bill subsidies rather than positive selection into military service.
    Keywords: Military service; World War II; Korean War; Education; Human capital
    JEL: I20 J62 N32 N42
    Date: 2013–10–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:uncgec:2013_016&r=his
  7. By: Francisco Parejo; Amélia Branco; João Carlos Lopes; José Rangel Preciado
    Abstract: The cork sector is a relevant case study given the economic importance of this industry for some regions (value added, employment and rural development). This industry is also important because of its contribution to environmental sustainability as it uses a natural renewable raw material. Portugal and Spain are the most important producers of cork and exporters of manufactured cork products (stoppers and agglomerates). The main purpose of this paper is to study the economic integration and the historical changes of cork business location choices in the Iberian Peninsula. We start by studying the historical roots, motivations and economic consequences of the delocalization of Catalonian firms to Portugal during the first quarter of the 20th century. Then a comparison is made with the recent process of delocalization of an anchor firm of Aveiro industrial district (Corticeira Amorim) to Spain. The theoretical framework of this study is the industry and cluster life cycles as well as the recent insights from the evolutionary economic geography.
    Keywords: Regional integration; firm location choices; cork industry; Iberian Peninsula.
    JEL: R32 F23
    Date: 2013–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp182013&r=his
  8. By: Yann Giraud (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise)
    Abstract: Over the past two decades, numerous contributions to the history of economics have tried to assess Paul Samuelson's political positioning by tracing it in the subsequent editions of his famous textbook Economics. This literature, however, has provided no consensus about the location of Samuelson's political ideas. While some authors believe that Samuelson has always had inclinations toward interventionism, others conclude that he more often acted as a pro-business advocate. The purpose of this paper is not to argue for one of these two interpretations but to depict the making of Economics itself as a political process. By 'political' it is not meant the conduct of party politics but the many political elements that a textbook author has to take into account if he wants to be published and favorably received. I argue that the "middle of the road" stance that Samuelson adopted in the book was consciously constructed by the MIT economist, with the help of his home institution and his publishing company, McGraw-Hill, to ensure both academic freedom and the success of the book. The reason for which the stance developed is related to pre-McCarthyist right-wing criticisms of the textbook and how Samuelson and the MIT department had to endure the pressures from members of the Corporation (MIT's Board of Trustees), who tried to prevent the publication of the textbook and threatened Samuelson's tenure at MIT as soon as 1947 - when early manuscripts were circulated. As a result, it was decided in accordance with both the Corporation and McGraw-Hill that the Readings volume would be published to balance conflicting ideas about state intervention. Following these early criticisms, the making of the subsequent editions relied on a network of instructors and referees all over the US in order to make it as successful and consensual as possible. This seemed to work quite well in the 1950s and for a good portion of the 1960s, until Economics became victim of its own success and was seen, in an ironical twist of fate, as a right wing text by younger, radical economists. From now on, Samuelson will try to have his book sent as often as possible to the radicals for referring process, with mixed results. Eventually, the book became criticized from both its left and its right.
    Date: 2013–10–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00870494&r=his
  9. By: Yann Giraud (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise); Loïc Charles (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - Université Paris VIII - Vincennes Saint-Denis : EA3391)
    Abstract: The rise of visual representation in economics textbooks after WWII is one of the main features of contemporary economics. In this paper, we argue that this development has been preceded by a no less significant rise of visual representation in the larger literature devoted to social and scientific issues, including economic textbooks for non-economists as well as newspapers and magazines. During the interwar era, editors, propagandists and social scientists altogether encouraged the use of visual language as the main vehicle to spread information and opinions about the economy to a larger audience. These new ways of visualizing social facts, which most notably helped shape the understanding of economic issues by various audiences during the years of the Great Depression, were also conceived by their inventors as alternative ways of practicing economics: in opposition to the abstraction of "neoclassical" economics, these authors wanted to use visual representation as a way to emphasize the human character of the discipline and did not accept the strict distinction between the creation and the diffusion of economic knowledge. We explore different yet related aspects of these developments by studying the use of visual language in economics textbooks intended for non-specialists, in periodicals such as the Survey, a monthly magazine intended for an audience of social workers, the Americanization of Otto Neurath's pictorial statistics and finally the use of those visual representations by various state departments and administrations under Roosevelt's legislature (including the much-commented Historical Section of the Farm Security Administration). We show how visualizations that have been created in opposition to neoclassical economics have lost most of their theoretical content when used widely for policy purposes while being simultaneously integrated into the larger American culture. It is our claim that those issues, which are familiar to those involved in cultural and visual studies, are also of crucial importance to apprehend the later developments of modern economics.
    Date: 2013–10–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00870490&r=his
  10. By: Groeling, Tim (University of CA, Los Angeles); Baum, Matthew (Harvard University)
    Abstract: How do partisan media affect polarization and partisanship? The rise of Fox News, MSNBC, and hyper-partisan outlets online gives this question fresh salience, but in this paper, we argue that the question is actually not new: prior to the broadcast era, newspapers dominated American mass communication. Many of these were identified as supporting one party over the other in their news coverage. While scholars have studied the composition and impact of the partisan press during their 19th-century height, the political impact of the gradual decline of these partisan papers remains relatively under-examined. The unnoted vitality and endurance of partisan newspapers (which constituted a majority of American newspapers until the 1960s) represents a huge hole in our understanding of how parties communicate. As a consequence of this omission, scholars have ignored a potentially vital contributing factor to changing patterns of partisan voting. In this paper, we examine both the degree and influence of partisanship in historical newspapers. We begin by content analyzing news coverage in the Los Angeles Times from 1885-1986 and the Atlanta Constitution from 1869-1945. To avoid problems of selection bias and the absence of a neutral baseline of coverage in the coded news, we focus on a subset of partisan news for which we have access to neutral coverage of a full population of potential stories: the obituaries of U.S. Senators. By coding whether and how the papers covered the deaths of these partisans over time, we are able to systematically test for bias. We then collect information on newspaper editorial stances from Editor and Publisher's Annual Yearbook to examine the impact of newspaper partisanship on voting patterns in presidential elections from 1932-92. Specifically, we test whether the proportion of partisan news outlets in a given media market explains changes in the rate of polarized voting.
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp13-035&r=his
  11. By: Scherer, F. M. (Harvard University)
    Abstract: This paper, written for a centennial commemoration of the founding of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, reviews the history of two major cases tackling one of the most difficult problems in U.S. antitrust jurisprudence: the tetracycline case of the 1950s and 1960s and the suit against four (eventually three) breakfast cereal manufacturers in the 1970s.
    Date: 2013–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp13-031&r=his
  12. By: Gordon C. McCord; Jeffrey D. Sachs
    Abstract: We suggest that the geographical patterns of income differences across the world have deep underpinnings. We emphasize that economic development is a complex process driven by economic, political, social, and biophysical forces. Some economists have argued that the patterns reflect mainly the historical footprint of colonial rule and political evolution, and that geography’s effects on development occurred exclusively through its effects on this historical institutional development. We believe that economic development has also been shaped very importantly by the biophysical and geophysical characteristics of economies. Per capita incomes differ around the world in no small part because of sharp differences across regions in the natural resource base and physical geography (e.g. distance to coast), and by the amplification of those differences through the dynamics of saving and investment. We posit that the drivers of economic development include institutions, technology, and geography, and that none of these alone is sufficient to account for the diverse patterns of global growth. We survey the relevant literature, and empirically show that a multi-causal framework helps to explain when countries achieve middle income; the distribution of economic activity around the world today; the patterns of growth between 1960 and 2010; the patterns of income per person within large economies; and the structural characteristics of the remaining countries still stuck in poverty today.
    JEL: O1 O13 O3 O4
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19512&r=his
  13. By: Latika Chaudhary (Scripps College and Hoover Institute); Jared Rubin (Chapman University)
    Abstract: Religious identity affects preferences and can consequently affect policy. We propose two mechanisms through which a ruler's religious identity can affect public good provision: i) greater provision of goods in regions where more subjects are the ruler's co-religionists, and ii) lower provision of goods where private markets provide a substitute to the ruler's co-religionists. Empirically, identifying the causal effect of religious identity on policy is often impossible, since the religious identity of rulers rarely changes over time and place. We address this problem by exploiting the variation in the religion of rulers in the Indian Princely States in the early 20th century. The Indian Princely States had significant variation in the religion of the ruler (primarily Hindu and Muslim), often due to unique historical experiences. Using data from the 1911 census, we fin d that Muslim-ruled states had lower Hindu literacy but the religion of the ruler had no statistically significant impact on Muslim literacy, railroad ownership or post office provision. These results support the idea that rulers provide less public goods when religious institutions provide a substitute targeted at their co-religionists, but there is only weak evidence that rulers provide more public goods when more subjects share their religious identity.
    Keywords: identity, public goods, religion, Islam, Hinduism, literacy, India, Princely States
    JEL: H30 H41 H42 H52 H72 I28 N35 N45 N75 Z10
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:13-26&r=his
  14. By: Timothy C. Johnson
    Abstract: This paper argues that the fundamental principle of contemporary financial economics is balanced reciprocity, not the principle of utility maximisation that is important in economics more generally. The argument is developed by analysing the mathematical Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with reference to the emergence of mathematical probability in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts. This analysis is undertaken within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy and Virtue Ethics. The purpose of the paper is to mitigate future financial crises by reorienting financial economics to emphasise the objectives of market stability and social cohesion rather than individual utility maximisation.
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1310.2798&r=his
  15. By: Steven Nafziger (Department of Economics, Williams College)
    Abstract: This paper explores the local political economy of early agronomic efforts in Tsarist Russia by undertaking a two-part analysis of the role of the zemstvo – a 19th century institution of local self-government – in improving local agricultural conditions. First, we investigate the agronomic activities of various levels of government in Russia over the last fifty years of the Tsarist era. After discussing the relatively limited role played by the central ministries and peasant institutions of self-government, we follow Nafziger (2011) in undertaking a qualitative and cross-district empirical analysis of how variation in economic conditions and the political structure of the zemstvo assemblies may have motivated zemstvo expenditures on agriculture. This exercise finds evidence suggesting that the peasantry – the population most likely affected by agronomic efforts – had an influence on the policies of the zemstvo, despite rarely holding majority positions in the assemblies. To explore the mechanisms underlying these results, we turn to a case study of agricultural development and zemstvo policies in Nizhnii Novgorod province. We draw on archival records, contemporary publications, and newspaper accounts to document these factors, both at the provincial level and for one relatively non-agricultural district (Semenov). Our findings suggest that the policy preferences of the local elites and of leaders of the executive committees of the institution likely mattered more than the composition of the zemstvo assembly for the resulting outcomes. By shedding light on the political mechanisms behind local public support for agronomic efforts, this chapter makes an initial step towards a fuller account of the early stages of Russia’s agrarian transformation.
    Keywords: Russia, agronomy, political economy, agriculture
    JEL: N33 N43 N53 O13 H41 H72
    Date: 2013–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2013-15&r=his
  16. By: Saleh, Mohamed
    Abstract: The correlation between religion and socioeconomic status is observed throughout the world. In the Middle East, local non-Muslims are, on average, better off than the Muslim majority. I trace the origins of the phenomenon in Egypt to a historical process of self-selection across religions, which was induced by an economic incentive: the imposition of the poll tax on non-Muslims upon the Islamic Conquest of the then-Coptic Christian Egypt in 640. The tax, which remained until 1856, led to the conversion of poor Copts to Islam to avoid paying the tax, and to the shrinking of Copts to a better off minority. Using a sample of men of rural origin from the 1848- 68 census manuscripts, I find that districts with historically stricter poll tax enforcement (measured by Arab immigration to Egypt in 640-900), and/or lower attachment to Coptic Christianity before 640 (measured by the legendary route of the Holy Family), have fewer, yet better off, Copts in 1848-68. Combining historical narratives with a dataset on occupations and religion in 640-1517 from the Arabic Papyrology Database, and a dataset on Coptic churches and monasteries in 1200 and 1500 from medieval sources, I demonstrate that the cross-district findingsreflect the persistence of the Copts’ initial occupationalshift, towards white-collar jobs, and spatial shift, towards the Nile Valley. Both shifts occurred in 640-900, where most conversions to Islam took place, and where the poll tax burden peaked. Occupational barriers to entry and the religiously segregated schools both led occupations to persist in 900-1848.
    Keywords: Religion; poll tax; persistence; conversion; Middle East
    JEL: N35 O15 O15
    Date: 2013–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:27573&r=his
  17. By: Leonardo Becchetti (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Rocco Ciciretti (University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Pierluigi Conzo (University of Turin)
    Abstract: The legal origin literature documents that civil and common law traditions have different impact on rules and economic outcomes. We contribute to this literature by investigating the relationship between corporate social responsibility and legal origins. Consistently with the main differences in historical and legal backgrounds and net of industry specific effects, the common law origin has a significant and positive impact on the Corporate Governance and Community Involvement domains, while the French legal tradition of civil law on the Human Resources domain. We also document that the lack of observable differences in the environmental domain can be explained by firms' progressive convergence to industry sustainability standards.
    Keywords: legal origins, corporate social responsibility, environmental standards, corporate governance, civil law, common law
    JEL: K10 K20 K31 K32 D60
    Date: 2013–10–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:291&r=his
  18. By: Scherer, F. M. (Harvard University)
    Abstract: This paper reviews the theory and historical developments that made it possible for the world's least affluent citizens to obtain the benefits of modern pharmaceutical therapy at affordable prices. Considered in turn are the theory of differential prices, the reasons why differential pricing was not widely practiced by pharmaceutical companies selling patented medicines; how low prices eventually became available, with emphasis on AIDS anti-retrovirals; and the consequences of low prices in the least developed nations for the creation of new and more effective medicines.
    Date: 2013–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp13-029&r=his
  19. By: Michael W.L. Elsby; Bart Hobijn; Aysegül Sahin
    Abstract: Over the past quarter century, labor’s share of income in the United States has trended downwards, reaching its lowest level in the postwar period after the Great Recession. Detailed examination of the magnitude, determinants and implications of this decline delivers five conclusions. First, around one third of the decline in the published labor share is an artifact of a progressive understatement of the labor income of the self-employed underlying the headline measure. Second, movements in labor’s share are not a feature solely of recent U.S. history: The relative stability of the aggregate labor share prior to the 1980s in fact veiled substantial, though offsetting, movements in labor shares within industries. By contrast, the recent decline has been dominated by trade and manufacturing sectors. Third, U.S. data provide limited support for neoclassical explanations based on the substitution of capital for (unskilled) labor to exploit technical change embodied in new capital goods. Fourth, institutional explanations based on the decline in unionization also receive weak support. Finally, we provide evidence that highlights the offshoring of the labor-intensive component of the U.S. supply chain as a leading potential explanation of the decline in the U.S. labor share over the past 25 years. ; Prepared for Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, September 19-20, 2013.
    Keywords: Monetary policy
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2013-27&r=his
  20. By: John Bonin (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Iftekhar Hasan (Fordham University, 5 Columbus Circle, 11-22, New York, NY 10019); Paul Wachtel (Stern School of Business, New York University, New York NY 10012)
    Abstract: Modern banking institutions were virtually non-existent in the planned economies of central Europe and the former Soviet Union. In the early transition period, banking sectors began to develop during several years of macroeconomic decline and turbulence accompanied by repeated bank crises. However, governments in many transition countries learned from these tumultuous experiences and eventually dealt successfully with the accumulated bad loans and lack of strong bank regulation. In addition, rapid progress in bank privatization and consolidation took place in the late 1990s and early 2000s, usually with the participation of foreign banks. By the mid 2000s the banking sectors in many transition countries were dominated by foreign owners and were able to provide a wide range of services. Credit growth resumed, sometimes too rapidly, particularly in the form of lending to households. The global financial crisis put transition banking to test. Countries that had expanded credit rapidly were vulnerable to the macroeconomic shock and there was considerable concern that foreign owners would reduce their funding to transition country subsidiaries. However, the banking sectors turned out to be resilient, a strong indication of the rapid progress in institutional development and regulatory capabilities in the transition countries.
    Keywords: transition banking, bank privatization, foreign banks, bank regulation, credit growth
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2013-008&r=his
  21. By: Adena, Maja; Enikolopov, Ruben; Petrova, Maria; Santarosa, Veronica; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: How far can the media protect or undermine democratic institutions in unconsolidated democracies, and how persuasive can they be in ensuring public support for dictator's policies? We study this question in the context of Germany between 1929 and 1939. Using geographical and temporal variation in radio availability, we show that radio had a significant negative effect on the Nazi electoral support between 1929 and 1932, when political news were slanted against Nazi party. This effect was reversed in just 5 weeks following Hitler's appointment as chancellor and the transfer of control of the radio to the Nazis. Pro-Nazi radio propaganda caused higher vote for the Nazis in March 1933 election. After full consolidation of power, radio propaganda helped the Nazis to enroll new party members and encouraged denunciations of Jews and other open expressions of anti-Semitism. The effect of Nazi propaganda was not uniform. Depending on listeners' priors about the message, propaganda could be very effective or could backfire. Nazi radio was most effective in places where anti- Semitism was historically high and had a negative effect on the support for anti-Semitic policies in places with historically low anti-Semitism. -- Inwieweit können die Medien zum Schutz oder zur Untergrabung ungefestigter Demokratien beitragen? Und inwieweit können sie Unterstützung für die Politik des Diktators generieren? Wir analysieren diese Fragen im Kontext der Weimarer Republik ab 1929 und des NS-Regimes bis 1939. Die voranschreitende technische Entwicklung dieser Zeit erlaubt uns die geografische und zeitliche Veränderung der Radioempfangsqualität für Identifikationszwecke zu nutzen. In der Zeit zwischen 1929 und 1932, in der das Rundfunkprogramm pro-demokratisch und gegen die NSDAP ausgerichtet war, hatte das Radio einen signifikant negativen Einfluss auf die Wahlergebnisse der NSDAP. Dieser Effekt wurde bereits 5 Wochen nach der Ernennung Hitlers zum Kanzler und der Kontrollübernahme über das Rundfunkprogramm umgekehrt. Die intensive NS-Propaganda im Radio während dieser Zeit bewirkte einen Stimmenzuwachs für die NSDAP bei den Reichstagswahlen in März 1933. Nachdem die Nazis ihre Macht konsolidiert hatten, trug die Rundfunkpropaganda messbar zu vermehrten Parteieintritten und zur Zustimmung der Bevölkerung bei der Denunziation von Juden und zu anderen Formen des offenen Antisemitismus bei. Dennoch war der Einfluss der NS-Propaganda nicht uniform. Je nach Voreingenommenheit der Zuhörer konnte die Propaganda sehr effektiv oder aber kontraproduktiv sein. Das NS-Radio war am effektivsten in Orten mit historisch hohem Antisemitismus und hatte einen negativen Effekt auf die Unterstützung der antisemitischen Politik in Orten mit historisch niedrigem Antisemitismus.
    Keywords: anti-semitism,dictatorship,media,Nazis,propaganda,unconsolidated democracy
    JEL: D72 L82 N74
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbeoc:spii2013310&r=his
  22. By: Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Since the unification of Germany in 1990, the former communist eastern part of the country has experienced substantial levels of population decline and outmigration. These trends are largely attributable to East-West differences in economic development (Mai 2007). In this article, we explore the question of whether the recent decline in population is a temporary phenomenon related to the period of transition, or whether long-term geographical factors also affect spatial population trends in Germany. In particular, we investigate to what extent East-West differences are related to the fact that parts of western Germany belong to the European dorsal (or Blue Banana arc), which has long been the most important area of economic activity in Europe (Brunet 1989). Our findings show that an East-West gradient in spatial population trends has existed since the late 19th century. This suggests that long-term geographical factors are relevant for understanding trends in Germany’s spatial population development.
    Keywords: Germany, population change, spatial analysis
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2013–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-013&r=his
  23. By: Emanuele Felice (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Giovanni Vecchi (University of Rome "Tor Vergata")
    Abstract: With the end of the celebrations marking the 150th anniversary of the unification of Italy, the availability of a large body of new historical statistical data calls for a redefinition of the features of Italian economic growth. The paper presents new estimates – at both national and regional level – of Italy’s GDP from 1861 to 2011; we discuss their interpretation in the light of the changes in the institutions, in technological regimes and in the broader international context. In contrast with its successful long-term performance, Italy’s economic growth has slackened since the 1990s and has now come to a halt. The paper deals with the question of whether fears that the country is on the road to economic decline are grounded. The answer is an affirmative one. Part of the problem is southern Italy’s inability to converge towards the more virtuous part of the country.
    Keywords: Italy; economic decline; modern economic growth; questione meridionale; GDP
    Date: 2013–10–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:293&r=his
  24. By: Nakao, Keisuke
    Abstract: While the theoretical literature maintains that strategic coordination is one of the keys to successful rebellion, anti-governmental campaigns are not necessarily synchronized across rebel groups in observed civil wars. To resolve this discrepancy, we develop a dynamic and spatial model of rebellion that illustrates patterns of contagious challenges against a government. As battles evolve, more rebels are inclined to "bandwagon," joining the ongoing war because the government is gradually revealed to be weak and because accumulated challenges shift the balance of power away from the government. Our theory also addresses why rebel movements often spread across the periphery and can eventually reach the heartland as if a siege shrinks. We delineate four geographic patterns of rebellion and then classify into them the Yugoslav Wars and other historical incidents.
    Keywords: bandwagoning, geopolitics, expansion of rebellion
    JEL: D74 F51
    Date: 2013–10–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50546&r=his

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