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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2013‒07‒15
twenty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Roberto Bonfatti |
| Abstract: | I construct a trade model of empire, and use it to interpret some of the key patterns in the history of European imperialism. I begin from the observation that trade was a key source of wealth for the colonies, and trade restrictions a key tool of extraction for colonial powers. But the value of this tool must be seen in relation to the value of colonial trade, and to the extent of international competition for it. The model interprets the colonial empires that emerged in the 16th-18th century as a set of political institutions designed to appropriate the value of colonial trade to the mother country, at a time in which colonial trade was both valuable and highly competed for. It explains the fluctuations in the fortunes of empire in the 19th and early 20th century with the rise of a clear industrial leader, Britain, and her subsequent decline. Finally, it attributes the fall of colonial empires to a secular fall in the importance of colonial trade, relative to trade between the industrial countries. I provide detailed historical evidence in support of these predictions. The model also has predictions for the impact of empire-building on trade relations between the imperial powers. These are consistent with the apparent inverse relation between European imperial expansion and globalization. |
| Keywords: | Imperialism, Preferential Trade Agreements, Intra-Industry Trade, Hegemonic Stability. |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:13/01&r=his |
| By: | Arie Krampf |
| Abstract: | During the 20th century, the institution called central bank was diffused globally. However, central banking practices differed significantly between European market-based economies and developing economies. This paper traces the ideas and norms that shaped and legitimized central banking practices in the two areas. The paper argues that during the period from the 1940s to the 1970s two central banking policy norms existed: the liberal norm, which emerged in Europe, and the developmental central banking norm, which emerged in Latin America and diffused to East Asia. The paper seeks to trace the life cycles of the two norms: to specify the ideational content of each norm and to identify the actors and networks that produced, promoted and diffused them. The paper makes two contributions. First, theoretically, on the basis of Finnemore and Sikkink’s theory of international norms’ dynamics, it introduces a mechanism that explains the emergence and internationalization of an alternative international norm in the periphery that challenges the standard international norm. Second, it contributes to the literature on comparative regionalism by historicizing the liberal/European standard of central banking practices and by identifying the existence of an alternative standard for central banking practices in developing countries. The paper covers the period from the 1940s to the 1970s. |
| Keywords: | regulations; European Central Bank; European Central Bank; economics; history |
| Date: | 2013–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:kfgxxx:p0049&r=his |
| By: | Bodenhorn, Howard (Clemson University); Guinnane, Timothy W. (Yale University); Mroz, Thomas A. (Clemson University) |
| Abstract: | An extensive literature uses anthropometric measures, typically heights, to draw inferences about living standards in the past. This literature's influence reaches beyond economic history; the results of historical heights research appear as crucial components in development economics and related fields. The historical heights literature often relies on micro-samples drawn from sub-populations that are themselves selected: examples include volunteer soldiers, prisoners, and runaway slaves, among others. Contributors to the heights literature sometimes acknowledge that their samples might not be random draws from the population cohorts in question, but rely on normality alone to correct for potential selection into the sample. We use a simple Roy model to show that selection cannot be resolved simply by augmenting truncated samples for left-tail shortfall. Statistical tests for departures from normality cannot detect selection in Monte Carlo exercises for small to moderate levels of self-selection, obviating a standard test for selection in the heights literature. We show strong evidence of selection using micro-data on the heights of British soldiers in the late eighteen and nineteenth centuries. Consequently, widely accepted results in the literature may not reflect variations in living standards during a soldier's formative years; observed heights could be predominantly determined by the process determining selection into the sample. A survey of the current historical heights literature illustrates the problem for the three most common sources: military personnel, slaves, and prisoners. |
| JEL: | C46 C52 C81 I00 N30 O15 O47 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:114&r=his |
| By: | Margherita Bottero (Bank of Italy); Björn Wallace (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Nunn (2008) found a negative relationship between past slave exports and economic performance within Africa. Here we investigate these findings and the suggested causal pathway in further detail. Extending the sample period back in time we reveal that the coefficient on slave exports did not become significantly negative until 1970, and that it was close to zero in 1960. While one potential explanation for this temporal pattern could be decolonization, we analyse other episodes of slave raiding outside Africa, and find evidence that questions the validity of such suggestion. In addition, our reading of the historical and anthropological literature differs from that of Nunn. For instance, taking a global rather than African perspective we find that the African slave trades cannot without difficulties explain the patterns of ethnic fractionalization that we observe today. |
| Keywords: | Africa, economic history, history, slave trade |
| JEL: | N01 N37 N47 |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:workqs:qse_30&r=his |
| By: | Stéphane BECUWE; Bertrand BLANCHETON; Léo CHARLES |
| Abstract: | Starting from Bairoch’s observation of declining French foreign trade, especially in emerging markets during the first globalization (1880-1914), this article endeavours to identify the sources for the failure to exploit the opportunities afforded by global economic growth after 1870. For this purpose a comprehensive dataset of French imports and exports of unparalleled size was assembled to investigate the changes these underwent both in geographical and product distribution over a period of 64 years. Applying standard tests of trade flow concentration, we find that France’s trade structure reflected its early intra-industry specialization which implied increasing reliance on ‘proximity’ markets. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Intra-Industry trade, 1st globalization, Specialization, France |
| JEL: | N7 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2013-17&r=his |
| By: | Reinert, Erik S. |
| Abstract: | "As we look over the country today we see two classes of people. The excessively rich and the abject poor, and between them is a gulf ever deepening, ever widening, and the ranks of the poor are continually being recruited from a third class, the well-to-do, which class is rapidly disappearing and being absorbed by the very poor." Milford Wriarson Howard (1862-1937), in The American Plutocracy, 1895. This paper argues for important similarities between today’s economic situation and the picture painted above by Milford Howard, a member of the US Senate at the time he wrote The American Plutocracy. This was the time, the 1880s and 1890s, when a combination of Manchester Liberalism – a logical extension of Ricardian economics – and Social Darwinism – promoted by the exceedingly influential UK philosopher Herbert Spencer – threatened completely to take over economic thought and policy on both sides of the Atlantic. At the same time, the latter half of the 19th century was marred by financial crises and social unrest. The national cycles of boom and bust were not as globally synchronized as they later became, but they were frequent both in Europe and in the United States. Activist reformer Ida Tarbell probably exaggerated when she recalled that in the US “the eighties dripped with blood”, but a growing gulf between a small and opulent group of bankers and industrialists produced social unrest and bloody labour struggles. The panic on May 5, 1893 triggered the worst financial crisis in the US until then. |
| Keywords: | Capitalism; economic history; Thorstein Veblen |
| JEL: | N00 P10 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47931&r=his |
| By: | Bill Dorval (Queen's University); Gregor W. Smith (Queen's University) |
| Abstract: | Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlations between (a) deflation and depression and (b) unexpected deflation and depression. We apply time-series methods to measure unexpected deflation or inflation for 26 countries from 1922 to 1939. The results suggest much variation across countries in the degree to which the ongoing deflation of the 1930s was unexpected. There is a significant, positive correlation between deflation and depression for the entire period but relatively little evidence of a role for unexpected deflation. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations, interwar period, Great Depression |
| JEL: | E31 E37 N10 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1310&r=his |
| By: | Mosca, Manuela |
| Abstract: | Abstract: This paper analyses the economist Antonio de Viti de Marco’s collaboration with the daily press, in relation to his scientific work and in the context of early twentieth century Italy. It brings out De Viti’s proposals for free trade and fiscal policies intended to support the development of the southern regions of Italy, as well as his critical attitude towards the public sector and its decision making processes. It also highlights his political activities and commitment, an important aspect of his achievement, yet all but unknown outside Italy. |
| Keywords: | Antonio de Viti de Marco, history of economics, Italian marginalism, daily newspapers, economic policies |
| JEL: | B20 B31 D72 F13 H3 H30 R11 |
| Date: | 2013–07–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:47963&r=his |
| By: | Christian Grabas; Alexander Nützenadel |
| Abstract: | This research paper provides a solid historical overview of European industrial policy during the post-WWII era, extending the time horizon up to the 1990s. Our research focus is the EU 15. Unlike previous publications, this paper outlines the most important characteristics and drivers of European industrial policy in a comparative and transnational perspective in order to provide some conclusions about policy impacts, historical policy continuities and national policy convergence, looking at changing institutional settings especially in transition periods and asking finally how these historical lessons could be fruitful for further research on future effective political action. This paper provides unequivocal evidence that state industrial policy in Europe after 1945 had been always one of the most controversial policy fields and that its scopes and instruments differed greatly between countries and changed over time. Industrial policy was not a novel phenomenon of the postwar era. Beyond the immediate goals, it was part of what can be considered the economic culture of every country. National traditions, historical legacies and path-dependencies did play an important role and may explain the enormous differences between nations and regions in Europe, even when they had to face similar challenges. The paradigm shift towards an interventionist industrial policy approach implemented in most European countries after 1945, which persistently prevailed until the 1990s, fostered economic structural change and was partially very effective in supporting high economic growth during the prosperity years, but had often led to an inefficient allocation of national economic resources in many countries in the longer run. The more important and effective factors that enhanced industrial productivity in the long run, were, firstly, industrial policies establishing national and/or regional promising effective incentive structures for the private sector, and secondly industrial policies encouraging openness to trade and investment, by creating an international environment favourable to competition, innovation and technology transfer. For Western Europe, it was increasing trade and investment openness, largely, but not exclusively, under the heading of European integration. |
| Keywords: | Academic research, economic growth path, economic strategy, EU integration, European economic policy, industrial innovation, industrial policy, innovation, innovation policy, institutional reforms, new technologies, post-industrialisation |
| JEL: | O25 O52 O57 N14 N44 F15 F55 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feu:wfewop:y:2013:m:7:d:0:i:15&r=his |
| By: | Andrew G. Atkeson; Andrea L. Eisfeldt; Pierre-Olivier Weill |
| Abstract: | Building on the Merton (1974) and Leland (1994) structural models of credit risk, we develop a simple, transparent, and robust method for measuring the financial soundness of individual firms using data on their equity volatility. We use this method to retrace quantitatively the history of firms’ financial soundness during U.S. business cycles over most of the last century. We highlight three main findings. First, the three worst recessions between 1926 and 2012 coincided with insolvency crises, but other recessions did not. Second, fluctuations in asset volatility appear to drive variation in firms’ financial soundness. Finally, the financial soundness of financial firms largely resembles that of nonfinancial firms. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G3 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19204&r=his |
| By: | Dave Donaldson; Richard Hornbeck |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the historical impact of railroads on the American economy. Expansion of the railroad network may have affected all counties directly or indirectly – an econometric challenge that arises in many empirical settings. However, the total impact on each county is captured by changes in that county's “market access,” a reduced-form expression derived from general equilibrium trade theory. We measure counties' market access by constructing a network database of railroads and waterways and calculating lowest-cost county-to-county freight routes. As the railroad network expanded from 1870 to 1890, changes in market access were capitalized into county agricultural land values with an estimated elasticity of 1.1. County-level declines in market access associated with removing all railroads in 1890 are estimated to decrease the total value of US agricultural land by 64%. Feasible extensions to internal waterways or improvements in country roads would have mitigated 13% or 20% of the losses from removing railroads. |
| JEL: | F1 N01 N51 N71 O1 R1 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19213&r=his |
| By: | Diego Puga (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Daniel Trefler (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | International trade can have profound effects on domestic institutions. We examine this proposition in the context of medieval Venice circa 800–1600. Early on, the growth of long-distance trade enriched a broad group of merchants who used their newfound economic muscle to push for constraints on the executive i.e., for the end of a de facto hereditary Doge in 1032 and for the establishment of a parliament in 1172. The merchants also pushed for remarkably modern innovations in contracting institutions that facilitated long-distance trade e.g., the colleganza. However, starting in 1297, a small group of particularly wealthy merchants blocked political and economic competition: they made parliamentary participation hereditary and erected barriers to participation in the most lucrative aspects of long-distance trade. Over the next two centuries this led to a fundamental societal shift away from political openness, economic competition and social mobility and towards political closure, extreme inequality and social stratification. We document this ‘oligarchization’ using a unique database on the names of 8,178 parliamentarians and their families’ use of the colleganza in the periods immediately before and after 1297. We then link these families to 6,971 marriages during 1400–1599 in order to document the use of marriage alliances to monopolize the galley trade and the consequent rise of extreme inequality, with those who were powerful before 1297 emerging as the undisputed winners. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Institutions, Medieval Venice. |
| JEL: | D02 F10 N43 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2013_1307&r=his |
| By: | Shanker Satyanath; Nico Voigtlaender; Hans-Joachim Voth |
| Abstract: | Social capital – a dense network of associations facilitating cooperation within a community – typically leads to positive political and economic outcomes, as demonstrated by a large literature following Putnam. A growing literature emphasizes the potentially “dark side” of social capital. This paper examines the role of social capital in the downfall of democracy in interwar Germany by analyzing Nazi party entry rates in a cross-section of towns and cities. Before the Nazi Party’s triumphs at the ballot box, it built an extensive organizational structure, becoming a mass movement with nearly a million members by early 1933. We show that dense networks of civic associations such as bowling clubs, animal breeder associations, or choirs facilitated the rise of the Nazi Party. The effects are large: Towns with one standard deviation higher association density saw at least one-third faster growth in the strength of the Nazi Party. IV results based on 19th century measures of social capital reinforce our conclusions. In addition, all types of associations – veteran associations and non-military clubs, “bridging” and “bonding” associations – positively predict NS party entry. These results suggest that social capital in Weimar Germany aided the rise of the Nazi movement that ultimately destroyed Germany’s first democracy. |
| JEL: | N14 N44 P16 Z1 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19201&r=his |
| By: | Sharp, Paul (Department of Business and Economics); Uebele, Martin (Faculty of Arts) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, there has been an increasing focus by policymakers on rural infrastructure in the United States, including most recently tax credits to encourage investment. Previous work has documented the importance of railroad expansion for nineteenth century development, and demonstrated that policy failure led to the disintegration of agricultural markets in the interwar period, with potentially serious macroeconomic consequences. Using a database of average prices by state of seven agricultural products for the period ca. 1870-2010, we extend this analysis to the postSecond World War period. We find a striking disintegration in recent decades, as measured by price dispersion, which we attribute to decades of underinvestment, particularly in railroads. We thus provide strong support for the present policy focus on investment in rural infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | United States; agriculture; market integration; rural infrastructure |
| JEL: | N52 N72 Q13 R42 |
| Date: | 2013–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2013_010&r=his |
| By: | Garnaut, Ross |
| Keywords: | International Development, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare13:152187&r=his |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University); Esfandiar Maasoumi (Emory University); Michael McAleer (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Complutense University of Madrid, Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | The paper focuses on the robustness of rankings of academic journal quality and research impact in general, and in Economics, in particular, based on the widely-used Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science citations database (ISI). The paper analyses 299 leading international journals in Economics using quantifiable Research Assessment Measures (RAMs), and highlights the similarities and differences in various RAMs, which are based on alternative transformations of citations and influence. All existing RAMs to date have been static, so two new dynamic RAMs are developed to capture changes in impact factor over time and escalating journal self citations. Alternative RAMs may be calculated annually or updated daily to determine When, Where and How (frequently) published papers are cited (see Chang et al. (2011a, b, c)). The RAMs are grouped in four distinct classes that include impact factor, mean citations and non-citations, journal policy, number of high quality papers, and journal influence and article influence. These classes include the most widely used RAMs, namely the classic 2-year impact factor including journal self citations (2YIF), 2-year impact factor excluding journal self citations (2YIF*), 5-year impact factor including journal self citations (5YIF), Eigenfactor (or Journal Influence), Article Influence, h-index, and PI-BETA (Papers Ignored - By Even The Authors). As all existing RAMs to date have been static, two new dynamic RAMs are developed to capture changes in impact factor over time (5YD2 = 5YIF/2YIF) and Escalating Self Citations. We highlight robust rankings based on the harmonic mean of the ranks of RAMs across the 4 classes. It is shown that emphasizing the 2-year impact factor of a journal, which partly answers the question as to When published papers are cited, to the exclusion of other informative RAMs, which answer Where and How (frequently) published papers are cited, can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal quality, impact and influence relative to the harmonic mean of the ranks. |
| Keywords: | Research assessment measures, Impact factor, IFI, C3PO, PI-BETA, STAR, Eigenfactor, Article Influence, h-index, 5YD2, ESC, harmonic mean of the ranks, economics, journal rankings |
| JEL: | C18 C81 Y10 |
| Date: | 2013–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20130081&r=his |
| By: | Gabriel Galvez-Behar (IRHiS - Institut de Recherches Historiques du Septentrion - CNRS : UMR8529 - Université Lille III - Sciences humaines et sociales) |
| Abstract: | L'objet de cette communication est de mettre en regard les débats français et les débats transnationaux sur la propriété scientifique pour évaluer le rôle qu'ont joué les savants français qui y furent engagés. Ces débats sur la propriété scientifique ne peuvent pas se comprendre isolément, sans qu'il soit fait référence non seulement aux évolutions d'autres domaines de la propriété intellectuelle mais aussi à celles des communautés scientifiques. Pour ces raisons,on reviendra tout d'abord sur l'expérience que constitue la Grande Guerre puis en analysant les débats sur la propriété scientifique en France. Nous évaluons ensuite l'influence française sur les débats internationaux avant d'établir un bilan de cette controverse sur la propriété scientifique. |
| Keywords: | Histoire ; propriété intellectuelle ; science ; brevets |
| Date: | 2013–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00839580&r=his |
| By: | Esteban Pérez Caldentey; Matias Vernengo |
| Abstract: | Keynes had a profound influence on Prebisch in terms of the diagnosis about the main failures of market economies and the need to pursue pro-active and anti-cyclical policies. However, Prebisch was critical of some aspects of Keynes’ General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, in particular on the theory of interest and the multiplier. His attitude can be explained by a difference in the object and method of analysis. Prebisch interests focused on dynamics and the cycle, themes that were peripheral to Keynes’ central message. Prebisch’s Keynesian influence and his rejection of some aspects of Keynes magnum opus explains why at the same time that Prebisch is often described as the Latin American Keynes, he is portrayed as concerned mainly with the long-run development problem of Latin America and without proper consideration to demand factors as fundamental determinants of output and employment. |
| Keywords: | Business Cycles, Interest Rate, Multiplier, Center-Periphery JEL Classification: B22, E32, E40, F55 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uta:papers:2013_08&r=his |
| By: | Moshe A. Milevsky; Thomas S. Salisbury |
| Abstract: | Historical tontines promised enormous rewards to the last survivors at the expense of those who died early. While this design appealed to the gambling instinct, it is a suboptimal way to manage longevity risk during retirement. This is why fair life annuities making constant payments -- where the insurance company is exposed to the longevity risk -- induces greater lifetime utility. However, tontines do not have to be designed using a winner-take-all approach and insurance companies do not actually sell fair life annuities, partially due to aggregate longevity risk. In this paper we derive the tontine structure that maximizes lifetime utility, but doesn't expose the sponsor to any longevity risk. We examine its sensitivity to the size of the tontine pool; individual longevity risk aversion; and subjective health status. The optimal tontine varies with the individual's longevity risk aversion $\gamma$ and the number of participants $n$, which is problematic for product design. That said, we introduce a structure called a natural tontine whose payout declines in exact proportion to the (expected) survival probabilities, which is near-optimal for all $\gamma$ and $n$. We compare the utility of optimal tontines to the utility of loaded life annuities under reasonable demographic and economic conditions and find that the life annuity's advantage over tontines, is minimal. We also review and analyze the first-ever mortality-derivative issued by the British government, known as King Williams's tontine of 1693. We shed light on the preferences and beliefs of those who invested in the tontines vs. the annuities and argue that tontines should be re-introduced and allowed to co-exist with life annuities. Individuals would likely select a portfolio of tontines and annuities that suit their personal preferences for consumption and longevity risk, as they did over 320 years ago. |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1307.2824&r=his |
| By: | Martin Uebele; Tim Grünebaum; Michael Kopsidis |
| Abstract: | This article presents new data on grain production, storage and prices in Saxony between 1789 and 1830. We contribute to three interrelated debates. First, we discuss whether monthly price increases were sufficient to cover storage costs, and how they relate to storage levels at the end of the harvest year. Second, we estimate price elasticity of demand, a test of “King’s Law”. Finally, we investigate the main determinants of grain storage in a framework that takes reverse causality into account. We find that price fluctuations within the harvest year were consistent with interest rates of about 5%. On the second subject, our findings are mainly consistent with “King’s Law”, according to which price elasticity of demand is relatively low with -0.4, and reject higher estimates of the recent literature. Finally, we show that storage quantity reacted in the predicted way to price shocks but way about as much driven by harvest variations. Between harvests, storage indeed smoothed food supply over time as theory predicts, however to a limited extent. |
| JEL: | A |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cqe:wpaper:2613&r=his |
| By: | A.P.Thirlwall |
| Abstract: | Kaldor's 1970 paper 'The Case for Regional Policies' was republished in the sixtieth anniversary volume of the Scottish Journal of Political Economy. This paper reflects on the model after more than forty years, and argues that even though it has been criticised for its deterministic nature, it has lost none of its relevance. It predates the ideas of so-called 'new' growth theory, and the new economic geography of Krugman, and provides at least a partial explanation of why growth rates and levels of per capita income between regions and between countries can continue to persist and even widen in contrast to the predictions of orthodox equilibrium theory. |
| Keywords: | Regional Growth; Kaldor; Uneven Development; Cumulative Causation |
| JEL: | O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1311&r=his |
| By: | O'Reilly, Charles A., III (Stanford University); Tushman, Michael L. (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Organizational ambidexterity refers to the ability of an organization to both explore and exploit--to compete in mature technologies and markets where efficiency, control, and incremental improvement are prized and to also compete in new technologies and markets where flexibility, autonomy, and experimentation are needed. In the past 15 years there has been an explosion of interest and research on this topic. We briefly review the current state of the research, highlighting what we know and don't know about the topic. We close with a point of view on promising areas for ongoing research. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:2130&r=his |