nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2012‒06‒25
forty-two papers chosen by
Bernardo Batiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. The Bank of Spain: a national financial institution By Pablo Martín-Aceña; Elena Martinez-Ruiz; Pilar Nogués-Marco
  2. Reparations, Deficits, and Debt Default: the Great Depression in Germany By Albrecht Ritschl
  3. The banking place of Lyon in 1848-1870. Between local banks and the second banking revolution (In French) By Hubert BONIN (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113 & Sciences Po Bordeaux)
  4. GDP in the Dutch Cape Colony: The national accounts of a slave-based society By Johan Fourie; Jan Luiten van Zanden
  5. El consumo de productos lácteos en España, 1950-2010 By Fernando Collantes
  6. The dispersion of customs tariffs in France between 1850 and 1913: discrimination in trade policy By Stéphane BECUWE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113); Bertrand BLANCHETON (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113)
  7. Land Markets and Inequality: Evidence from Medieval England By Cliff T. Bekar; Clyde G. Reed
  8. Inequality in Our Age By Azizur R. Khan
  9. Defining modern mathematics: Willy Servais (1913-1979) and mathematical curriculum reform in Belgium By Vanpaemel, Geert; De Bock, Dirk; Verschaffel, Lieven
  10. Soldiers and booze: The rise and decline of a Roman market economy in north-western Europe By Eltjo Buringh; Jan Luiten van Zanden; Maarten Bosker
  11. Réflexion sur l'Environnement Économique International Entourant les Pays en Développement (Reflection on the International Economic Environment Surrounding the Developing Countries) By Toshikatsu Aoyama
  12. Reassessing the Evolution of World Trade, 1870-1949 By Klasing, Mariko; Milionis, Petros
  13. A Tale of Two Commons: Some Preliminary Hypotheses on the Long-Term Development of the Commons in Western and Eastern Europe, 1000-1900 By Miguel Laborda Pemán; Tine De Moor
  14. From Worship to Worldly Pleasures: Secularization and Long-Run Economic Growth By Holger Strulik
  15. Exploring the causes behind the persistence of French technological specializations By Mafini Dosso
  16. The European Origins of Economic Development By William Easterly; Ross Levine
  17. The Demand for Tobacco in Post-Unification Italy By Carlo Ciccarelli; Gianni De Fraja
  18. The Technology and Economics of Coinage Debasements in Medieval and Early Modern Europe: with special reference to the Low Countries and England By John H. Munro
  19. Collateral damage: Educational attainment and labor market outcomes among German war and post-war cohorts By Jürges, Hendrik
  20. The (Rail)road to Structural Change: Transportation Costs, Integration, and Production Specialization By Walker, Sarah
  21. Contemporary Microeconomic Foundations for the Structure and Management of the Public Sector By Lewis Evans; Graeme Guthrie; Neil Quigley
  22. The Labor/Land Ratio and India's Caste System By Duleep, Harriet
  23. From Slums to Slums in Three Generations; Housing Policy and the Political Economy of the Welfare State, 1945-2005 By Harold Carter
  24. Date of birth, family background, and the 11 plus exam: short- and long-term consequences of the 1944 secondary education reforms in England and Wales By Hart, Robert; Moro, Mirko; Roberts, Elizabeth
  25. Suffrage, Schooling, and Sorting in the Post-Bellum U.S. South By Suresh Naidu
  26. The Marginal Productivity Theory Of The Price Of Capital: An Historical Perspective On The Origins Of The Codswallop By Grieve, Roy
  27. The Extraordinary Art Critic Roger de Piles (1635-1709): An Empirical Analysis of his Rankings and Sale Prices By Graddy, Kathryn
  29. The Role of Mechanical Refrigeration in Spatial and Temporal Price Dynamics for Regional U.S. Egg Markets, 1880–1911 By Craig, Lee / A.; Holt, Matthew / T,
  30. Fertility decline in the southeastern Austrian Crown lands. Was there a Hajnal line or a transitional zone? By Peter Teibenbacher
  31. Alliances in the shadow of conflict By Ke, Changxia; Konrad, Kai A.; Morath, Florian
  32. Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S. By Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kueng, Lorenz; Silvia, John
  34. The Economic Status of Asian Americans Before and After the Civil Rights Act By Duleep, Harriet; Sanders, Seth G.
  35. How Deep Are the Roots of Economic Development? By Spolaore, Enrico; Wacziarg, Romain
  36. John R. Commons and the Evolution of Institutions: The Case of the Malian Cotton Sector By Theriault, Veronique; Sterns, James A.
  37. Testing for long-run "sustainability": Genuine Savings estimates for B ritain, 1760-2000 By Greasley, David; Hanley, Nicholas; McLaughlin, Eoin; Oxley, Les; Warde, Paul
  38. Uomo e montagna tra economia tradizionale e cambiamenti climatici: il caso del Pasubio tra XVIII e XX secolo By Avanzini, Marco; Salvador, Isabella; Gios, Geremia
  39. L'émergence des collectifs de conception inter-industries : le cas de la Lunar Society dans l'Angleterre du XVIIIème By Marine Agogue
  40. Real Wages and the Family: Adjusting Real Wages to Changing Demography in Pre-Modern England By Eric Schneider
  41. Integrated, dynamic economic – hydrology model of the Murray-Darling Basin By Kirby, Mac; Mainuddin, Mohammed; Gao, Lei; Connor, Jeffery D.; Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din
  42. Økonomi og økonomer i UiOs historie: Professorkonkurransen 1876-77 By Bjerkholt, Olav

  1. By: Pablo Martín-Aceña (Universidad de Alcalá, Spain); Elena Martinez-Ruiz (Universidad de Alcalá, Spain); Pilar Nogués-Marco (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: This paper explains the process by which the Bank of Spain became a national bank, first by obtaining the monopoly of issue in 1874 and then by extending its sphere of financial action by creating the country's only network of bank branches before 1900. The implementation of a "unified or national banknote" in 1884 and the creation of a system of free transfers for its clients were also decisive steps towards the Bank's transformation from a local Madrid-based institution into a Spanish national institution. The paper also argues that the transformation of the Bank of Spain into a genuine national financial institution contributed to the modernization of the Spanish administrative fabric.
    Keywords: Bank of Spain, financial history, banknote issue, banking modernization
    JEL: N23 N43 G21
    Date: 2012–06
  2. By: Albrecht Ritschl
    Abstract: Germany's Great Depression of the early 1930s started in 1929 with a sudden stop in the current account. It ended after a foreign debt default that unfolded in several stages from 1931 to 1933. This chapter reviews Germany's macroeconomic history between the gold-based stabilisation of 1924 and the transition to autarky and domestic credit expansion in 1933. During the Dawes Plan of 1924-29, German borrowed abroad massively to pay reparations out of credit, a phenomenon that gave rise to the debate about the transfer problem between Keynes and his critics. An incentive based interpretation of the transfer problem is sketched to explain the later current account reversal. Time-varying VARs are employed to trace the propagation of the resulting macroeconomic shock, and to obtain estimates of fiscal multipliers.
    Keywords: Great Depression, Germany, sudden stop, transfer problem, vector autoregressions
    JEL: N12 N13 E37 E47
    Date: 2012–06
  3. By: Hubert BONIN (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113 & Sciences Po Bordeaux)
    Abstract: The place of Lyon inherited from the first banking revolution of the 1750s-1850s years a solid structure of local banking houses, which were able to accompany the growth of the productive system of silk and the diversification of the emerging heavy industries. But the international deployment of the trade houses and the move of big industry demanded a broad adaptation. Banque de France itself developed its branch so as to insert the place into the revolution of national discounting and to consolidate the process of liquidity. A trend of differentiation distinguished the banking houses that succeeded in reaching a European and financial dimension from those which commenced to lose competitive ground. Last, Lyon was the birth-place of two models of the big “modern” banking enterprise, which revolutionised the structures of credit and the flows of collecting deposits and savings. Those both decades could be thus considered as decisive in the building of a banking armature efficient enough to foster the industrial and commercial growth of the large South-Eastern parts of France.
    Keywords: Bank, Banque de France, Lyon, Second banking revolution
    JEL: N2
    Date: 2012
  4. By: Johan Fourie; Jan Luiten van Zanden (Universiteit Stellenbosch and Universiteit Utrecht)
    Abstract: New estimates of GDP of the Dutch Cape Colony (1652-1795) suggest that the Cape was one of the most prosperous regions during the eighteenth century. This stands in sharp contrast to the perceived view that the Cape was an “economic and social backwater”, a slave economy with slow growth and little progress. Following a national accounts framework, we find that Cape settlers’ per capita income is similar to the most prosperous countries of the time – Holland and England. We trace the roots of this result, showing that it is partly explained by a highly skewed population structure and very low dependency ratio of slavery, and attempt to link the eighteenth century Cape Colony experience to twentieth century South African income levels.
    Keywords: South Africa, slave, income, growth, GDP per capita, production
    Date: 2012–06
  5. By: Fernando Collantes
    Abstract: This paper, a case study of the great transformations undergone by food consumption patterns in Spain since c. 1950, reconstructs the evolution of the consumption of milk and milk derivatives. The paper homogenizes and triangulates the information given by several statistical sources, which use different methodologies and cover different periods. This information is combined with qualitative material. Milk consumption grew rapidly during the first half of the period and, after a phase of stagnation, started to decrease in the last years of the twentieth century. On the contrary, the consumption of (an increasing variety of) milk derivatives grew steadily throughout the whole of the period. The contrast between the respective trajectories of milk and its derivatives underlines the relevant role played by the elaboration and diversification of foodstuffs in the shaping of consumption patterns.
    Keywords: food consumption, Spain, milk, milk derivatives, nutritional transition
    JEL: N34 N54 O13 R22
    Date: 2012–06
  6. By: Stéphane BECUWE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113); Bertrand BLANCHETON (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113)
    Abstract: This contribution purpose an original and exhaustive measure of customs tariffs dispersion depending on the origin of imported products in France between 1850 and 1913. While a part of this dispersion is the result of a systematic structural effect linked to the compiling of nomenclatures for France’s general trade chart, it nevertheless reveals the existence of direct discriminatory practices applied to certain countries for certain products. The principle of this dispersion of tariffs (which was not specific to France) introduces uncertainty over the strengths of empirical work dealing with the correlation between customs tariffs and growth (the tariff-growth paradox), and over the way in which the theme of effective trade protection has been treated. In our opinion, it should pave the way to work that reintroduces the country dimension into the study of late 19th century commercial policy.
    Keywords: Trade policy, History of globalisation, Customs tariffs
    JEL: N7
    Date: 2012
  7. By: Cliff T. Bekar (Lewis and Clark College); Clyde G. Reed (Simon Fraser University)
    Abstract: The 13th century witnessed a substantial increase in inequality in the distribution of peasant landholdings relative to the distribution of the late 11th century. Innovations in property rights over land in 12th century England induced peasants to include the trading of small parcels of land as part of their risk coping strategy. We argue that these events are related. Recent theoretical work in development economics has explored the relationship between inequality and asset markets. When agents are able to trade productive assets to manage risk, the resulting dynamics may generate increasing inequality over time. We employ a simulation strategy to analyze the impact of land markets in generating inequality in 13th century landholdings. We find that the dominant factor contributing to the unequal distribution of land was the interaction between emerging land markets and population growth driven by high fertility rates in households with large landholdings.
    Keywords: Economic History, Land Market,Hundred Rolls,Domesday, inequality, risk, poverty, asset markets, simulation analysis, economic development
    JEL: N23 N53 O15 J11
    Date: 2012–05
  8. By: Azizur R. Khan
    Abstract: <p> The purpose of this essay is to outline the evolution of inequality in the post-World War II period and the causes shaping that evolution.<span>  </span>The starting proposition of the essay is that both inequality and the social tolerance of inequality have substantially increased almost everywhere over this period. The increase in inequality over this period, however, consists of divergent changes over two sub-periods: for the first three decades after the end of WWII inequality actually declined over much of the world; over the last three decades the increase in inequality has afflicted pretty much every significant human society. While in the decades immediately after WWII human societies almost everywhere were, at least seemingly, engaged in finding ways to reduce inequality, in the last three decades societies everywhere have demonstrated greater tolerance of inequality. The essay also argues that these trends in inequality were not determined by inevitable technological, economic or historical forces but largely by policy choices made by political forces. Finally it argues that, the demise of traditional standard bearers of equality, such as the actually-existing socialist system and the quest for non-capitalist development in the Third World, and the emergence of capitalism as the only economic system, do not signal the “end of history” for the human pursuit of equality. Plenty of paths to greater equality are available to contemporary societies that are serious in their pursuit of the goal.</p><p></p>
    Keywords: Personal Income, Wealth, Income Distribution, Living Standards
    JEL: D31 I31 I38
    Date: 2012
  9. By: Vanpaemel, Geert (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB), KULeuven); De Bock, Dirk (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB), KULeuven); Verschaffel, Lieven (KULeuven)
    Abstract: The New Math reform which swept Europe in the 1960’s was primarily instigated by the Commission Internationale pour l’Étude et l’Amélioration de l’Enseignement des Mathématiques. Since its foundation in 1952 the CIEAEM held annual meetings where mathematicians, logicians and psychologists discussed the direction of the modernization process. Several Belgian mathematicians played a prominent role in the CIEAEM, in particular Willy Servais and Georges Papy. In particular, Papy has been recognized as a leading, if not uncontested architect of the new mathematical curriculum. Much less is known about Willy Servais, who for more than twenty years acted as secretary of CIEAEM. In this paper we retrace the career of Servais against the background of the mathematical curriculum reform in Belgium. We reconstruct his views on the modernization of the mathematical curriculum, his work on mathematical models and his concern about the cultural role of mathematics in the modern world. Our analysis shows that the awareness of a need for an abstract, unified mathematics (as expressed in Papy’s work) was not a dominant theme in the early 1950s debates in Belgium. Much more attention was given to the creation of teaching aids and the introduction of possible new topics such as probability theory, statistics or electrical technology. We further draw attention to issues concerning the social position of the mathematics teachers, the wider issues involved in the reform and the divergent views of mathematicians and school psychologists in Belgium.
    Date: 2012–05
  10. By: Eltjo Buringh; Jan Luiten van Zanden; Maarten Bosker (Universiteit Utrecht and Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: This study quantifies the importance of the Roman military for the development of a market economy in north-western Europe. Distributions of low denomination coins show how the Roman arrival kick-started a local market economy. Additionally settlement densities of fluvial catchments are used as a proxy for economic development. Our newly constructed dataset of settlement sizes shows a high correlation with Roman military requirements. After the demise of the empire the local market economy faded away. This antique market economy had a different geographical distribution than its medieval successor, which was not mainly driven by military demand.
    Keywords: market economy, historical development, Roman Empire, north-western Europe, inland waterway transport, coin finds
    Date: 2012–06
  11. By: Toshikatsu Aoyama (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)
    Abstract: I was in charge of participating to the conference related to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) as a mission of the ministry of foreign affairs in the second half of 1980's. At that time, the UNCTAD played a central role on the economic problems of the developing countries, particularly that of the primary goods. Through this kind of experience, I took notice of the subjects concerning the economic difficulties surrounding the developing countries. After a great war, most of the developing countries have achieved their independence thanks to the emancipation from the political restriction. However, in reality, they are still suffering from the difficulties how to take off for their economies with a view to realizing their actual economic independence. The economic disparity among the developed and developing countries has been more and more widening in progress of the globalization towards the 21st century. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to identify the reasons why the economic disparity occurred in, by pursuing the historical issues such as a conclusion of the Newly International Economic Order (NIEO), the International Commodities Agreements, the transformation of an exchange rate from fixed to floating, the oil chocks in 1973 and 1979, the augmentation of the speculative transactions, and the progression of the globalization etc. (in French)
    Date: 2012–06
  12. By: Klasing, Mariko; Milionis, Petros
    Abstract: The typical narrative regarding the evolution of world trade prior to World War II refers to a secular rise that started around 1870 and a subsequent collapse that began in 1914. This narrative, though, is based on measures of trade openness that do not fully take into account purchasing power differences across countries, as in the literature non-PPP-adjusted trade data are typically denominated by PPP-adjusted GDP data. The present paper seeks to resolve this inconsistency by constructing new trade share estimates for 51 countries spanning the period from 1870 to 1949 by combining historical import and export data with non-PPP-adjusted GDP values that we estimate via the "short-cut" method. Our estimates indicate a much more pronounced rise and fall of world trade over this period with trade shares being on average 32% higher than previously documented and the world's level of openness to trade in 1913 being comparable to that in 1974. In addition, performing a similar correction for purchasing power differences in the context of standard gravity regressions for the 1870-1939 period we find that the existing literature has overestimated the importance of income movements during this period relative to tariffs changes and the evolution of the gold standard.
    Keywords: International Trade; Purchasing Power Differences
    JEL: F15 N10 N70 F01 F1 N7
    Date: 2012–06
  13. By: Miguel Laborda Pemán; Tine De Moor (Universiteit Utrecht)
    Abstract: In this article we offer a broad explanatory framework for the divergence in the development of institutions for collective action, in particular commons, in Eastern and Western Europe. The latter area was particularly early with the development of collective arrangements of natural resource management. We explain on the one hand the rapid and intensive development of such institutions west of the Elbe and on the other hand the rather slow and less intensive development on the eastern side.
    Keywords: Institutions for Collective Action, Commons, Serfdom, Peasant Commune
    Date: 2012–06
  14. By: Holger Strulik (Georg-August-University Göttingen)
    Abstract: In medieval times, most people identified with religious values and aggregate income and productivity grew at glacier speed. In the 20th century, religion played a much lesser role in daily life and income and productivity grew at high and unprecedented rates. The present paper develops a simple economic theory of identity choice that explains both stylized facts as well as a period of secularization during which an increasing share of the population abandons religious identity for worldly pleasures and aggregate productivity takes off. An extension of the basic model investigates the Protestant reformation as an intermediate stage. Another extension introduces socially-dependent religious preferences, establishes the endogenous emergence of multiple, self-fullling equilibria, and demonstrates how a social multiplier amplifies the speed of transition.
    Keywords: religion; identity; economic growth; productivity; secularization; comparative development
    JEL: N30 O10 O40 Z12 Z13
    Date: 2012–06–11
  15. By: Mafini Dosso
    Abstract: Responding to the research on the persistence of technological specializations, this paper puts forward a complementary explanation for the stability in the fields in which a country performs well relatively to other countries. The study investigates the French institutional and historical features that may explain the evolution of the relative technological strengths of French organizations since the end of the seventies. More precisely it focuses on the interplay between three related institutional factors, the relatively high commitment of the State, the prevailing role of French large firms and of the technical experts from the Grandes Ecoles in shaping France?s innovation system.
    Keywords: Technological specializations, Institutions, large firms
    Date: 2012–06–08
  16. By: William Easterly; Ross Levine
    Abstract: A large literature suggests that European settlement outside of Europe shaped institutional, educational, technological, cultural, and economic outcomes. This literature has had a serious gap: no direct measure of colonial European settlement. In this paper, we (1) construct a new database on the European share of the population during the early stages of colonization and (2) examine its impact on the level of economic development today. We find a remarkably strong impact of colonial European settlement on development. According to one illustrative exercise, 47 percent of average global development levels today are attributable to Europeans. One of our most surprising findings is the positive effect of even a small minority European population during the colonial period on per capita income today, contradicting traditional and recent views. There is some evidence for an institutional channel, but our findings are most consistent with human capital playing a central role in the way that colonial European settlement affects development today.
    JEL: N10 O1 O4
    Date: 2012–06
  17. By: Carlo Ciccarelli; Gianni De Fraja
    Abstract: This paper studies the demand for tobacco products in post-unification Italy. We construct a very detailed panel dataset of yearly consumption in the 69 Italian provinces from 1871 to 1913, and use it to estimate the Becker and Murphy (1988) rational addiction model. We find support for the presence of rational addiction; we also find that, in the period considered, tobacco was a normal good in Italy: its consumption increase with income. Subsequently, we separate the analysis of the components of the aggregate tobacco consumption (fine-cut tobacco, snuff, cigars and cigarettes), and tentatively suggest that habit formation was a stronger factor on the persistence of consumption than physical addiction. The paper ends by showing that the introduction of the Bonsack machine did not coincide with changes in the structure of the demand for tobacco, suggesting cost driven technological change.
    Keywords: Smoking; Italian Kingdom; Rational Addiction; Panel Data
    JEL: D11 N33 I18
    Date: 2012–06
  18. By: John H. Munro
    Abstract: Coinage debasement in medieval and early modern Europe remains an ill-understood topic; and indeed an often cited article ("The Debasement Puzzle": Velde and Weber, 1996) sought to demonstrate that coinage debasements were both impractical and economically futile. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that aggressive debasements were generally very practical and effective, so long as they were properly devised to profit both the merchants who brought bullion to the mints and the princes who earned seigniorage revenues from those mints. To be sure, the general public often suffered the consequences of this seigniorage tax from the consequent inflation. But another goal of this study is to demonstrate that inflation was almost never proportionate to the extent of the debasement, even during Henry VIII's Great Debasement (1542-53); and to demonstrate that both merchants and the prince benefitted from debasements in real terms, provided that they spent the increased quantity of now debased coins (of the same face value) quickly enough, before the full force of inflation was felt. Central to the economic success of such debasements was the pre-modern mint technology: the very crudity of the techniques of "hammered" coinages whose mint outputs did not produce fully identical coins in each issue. For this and many other reasons explored in this study, domestic merchants and the general public almost always accepted coins by tale (number), at face value, and did not discount them for deficiencies in weight and fineness, except for those merchants dealing with gold coins in international trade. The second part of this study is an examination of the European princes' motives for conducting such coinage debasements. As the previous argument and so many previous studies have indicated, an obvious motive was profit-seeking, so that such debasements may be regarded more as fiscal than truly monetary policies. But an equally powerful and perhaps even more widespread monetary motive was defence of the realm's coinages and mints: i.e., necessary defences and retaliations against aggressive, profit-seeking debasements undertaken by neighboring prices (or city states). In essence, that meant a defence against the operations of Gresham's Law, whose frequency and effectiveness in international monetary flows are also examined in this study. The operation of Gresham's Law also involved, however, the deterioration of the general standard of domestic coins through counterfeiting, fraudulent clipping and sweating of the coins, and especially by normal wear and tear in domestic circulation. Such deterioration, for all these reasons, thus meant that freshly minted, full-bodied good coins were soon driven out of circulation (exported abroad, melted down, or just hoarded) by the prevailing circulation of 'bad' coins, thus necessitating a defensive debasement to reduce the mint standard, in weight and fineness, to that of the prevailing circulation. The problem of Gresham's Law, related to both aggressive and defensive debasements, was resolved, to obviate debasements, only by the advent of modern steam-powered machinery to produce perfectly round, milled, and exact replicas of coins struck. The final but brief aspect of this study is to answer the question raised by Sargent and Velde in their recent monograph: The Big Problem of Small Change (2002). Were such coinage debasement ever undertaken as a deliberate policy to expand the money supply (especially during the late-medieval "bullion famines") and in particular to remedy any chronic shortage of petty coins or "small change": other than as a defensive reaction to Gresham's Law? The answer advanced in this study, briefly, is simply NO (for the reasons explored in the conclusion).
    Keywords: coinage debasements; ‘Great Debasement’; gold; silver; billon; bullion; bullionist policies; mints; mint outputs; seigniorage; brassage; token coinages; ‘small change’; Gresham’s Law; inflation; deflation; ‘bullion famines’ and monetary scarcities; warfare; taxation; France; Flanders; dukes of Burgundy; England; Henry VIII.
    JEL: E E41 E42 E51 E52 E62 F33 H11 H27 N13 N23 N43
    Date: 2012–06–06
  19. By: Jürges, Hendrik (Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA))
    Abstract: We use data from the West German 1970 census to explore the link between being born during or shortly after World War II and educational and labor market outcomes 25 years later. We document, for the first time, that men and women born in the relatively short period between November 1945 and May 1946 have significantly and substantially lower educational attainment and occupational status than cohorts born shortly before or after. Several alternative explanations for this new finding are put to test. Most likely, a short but severe spell of quantitative and qualitative malnutrition immediately around the end of the war has impaired intrauterine conditions in first trimester pregnancies and resulted in longterm detriments among the affected cohorts. This conjecture is corroborated by evidence from Austria.
    JEL: J24 N34
    Date: 2012–03–01
  20. By: Walker, Sarah
    Abstract: The current study explores the role of economic integration in catalyzing structural change. Specifically, it addresses the question of how reductions in transportation costs affect patterns of production specialization over time. Drawing upon the New Economic Geography literature (Krugman, 1991; Krugman & Venables, 1995) and exploiting a natural experiment in the 19th century Austro-Hungarian Empire, I develop a structural model to empirically measure the effect of reduced transportation costs – through the introduction of railroads – on the concentration of manufactures production in a regional economy over time (i.e., 1841-1917). The structural estimations are supplemented by a reduced form strategy that attempts to address the inherent simultaneity bias that the structural estimates are incapable of solving.
    Keywords: International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2012–06
  21. By: Lewis Evans; Graeme Guthrie; Neil Quigley (The Treasury)
    Abstract: The new public management of the 1980s was based in part on a range of important new insights about the role of transaction and agency costs arising from contractual incompleteness in defining the boundaries of the firm and the governance relationships within it. In this paper, we consider the literature of the last 25 years which extends our understanding of allocations of ownership rights and the boundaries of the firm as responses to contractual incompleteness. From this perspective, ownership represents an allocation of control rights to those with the potential to make the most important (value-enhancing) relationship-specific investments. We provide an outline of this modern approach to contractual incompleteness, illustrate its application to a range of issues in public and private ownership, investment, governance and decision-making, and provide suggestions about the impact that this approach might have on the scope, structure and management of the public sector in the 21st century.
    Keywords: Incomplete contracts; investment decision-making; public ownership, management and governance
    JEL: H40 L20 L33 G31
    Date: 2012–05
  22. By: Duleep, Harriet (College of William and Mary)
    Abstract: This paper proposes that India's caste system and involuntary labor were joint responses by a nonworking landowning class to a low labor/land ratio in which the rules of the caste system supported the institution of involuntary labor. The hypothesis is tested in two ways: longitudinally, with data from ancient religious texts, and cross-sectionally, with twentieth-century statistics on regional population/land ratios linked to anthropological measures of caste-system rigidity. Both the longitudinal and cross-sectional evidence suggest that the labor/land ratio affected the caste system's development, persistence, and rigidity over time and across regions of India.
    Keywords: labor-to-land ratio, population, involuntary labor, immobility, value of life, marginal product of labor, market wage
    JEL: J47 J1 J30 N3 Z13
    Date: 2012–05
  23. By: Harold Carter (University of Oxford, UK)
    Abstract: Housing was the major domestic priority of all postwar UK governments. By 1970 the physical conditions of British housing had been transformed; by the 1990s seventy per cent of households in England owned their own homes. Yet in 2012 there were still parts of many cities that deserved labeling as slums. Why had massive public expenditure not managed to achieve the goal of successive governments? Vested interests, created by each wave of intervention, limited subsequent policy choices. From about 1950 to about 1995, governments expanded owner occupation via a wide range of subsidies, but increasingly restricted the supply of land by restrictive planning laws. There was a massive (and unremarked) tenurial revolution, as privately rented houses were sold off to owner occupiers. At the same time, slum clearance created large single-tenure areas. This changed the nature of the demand for council housing (once occupied by the upper skilled working-class). In some parts of the country, gentrification removed a once-affordable source of owner-occupied housing. But rent control meant there were few homes for would-be renters. Access to good quality social housing thus became a very high-stakes game, for those on modest incomes – and a major source of ethnic tension in some inner cities. From the mid 1980s on, means-tested help with rent payments and market liberalization provided new help to would-be private renters. By 2010 this had resulted in the provision of over 2.2 million new privately rented dwellings in under twenty years (almost as many as had vanished between 1960 and 1975). Small debt-funded capitalist landlords, and tenants with limited security of tenure, would have been familiar one hundred years earlier. But this time the government was paying the rent; guaranteeing the market for a new generation of slum landlords, while producing severe disincentives to labour-market participation by the poor. This new form of subsidy (coupled with continuing high land prices) helped to increase nominal rents much faster than average earnings. Housing benefit expenditure rose £11 billion in 2000 to £22 billion in 2010. As, on the surface, the British housing market moved away from social democracy and towards market liberalism, its underpinnings moved in the opposite direction. Measure was piled on measure, and subsidy on subsidy, until at the end of the century the influence of government had become all-pervasive. Social amelioration of this kind faces two major problems. The first problem is that it tends to reward the majority at the expense of the weak. The second great problem is that it depends on a continuing flow of new resources, to fix each new problem while still maintaining preserving the interests of existing clients. If liberal democracies survive by buying-off trouble from new problems, while continuing to support accrued vested interests, how will they manage if economic growth can no longer be relied upon? Based on the experience of the UK housing market, it seems likely that they will focus their resources on those in the middle. This does not bode well for the poor.
    Date: 2012–05–30
  24. By: Hart, Robert; Moro, Mirko; Roberts, Elizabeth
    Abstract: Research into socio-economic impacts of the 1944 Education Act in England and Wales has been considerable. We concentrate on its two most fundamental innovations. First, it provided free universal secondary education. Second, state-funded pupils were placed into grammar schools or technical schools or secondary modern schools depending on IQ tests at age 11. The secondary modern school pupils experienced relatively poor educational opportunities. This tripartite system dominated secondary education from 1947 to 1964. For this period, we use the British Household Panel Survey to investigate the influences of date of birth and family background on (a) the probability of attending grammar or technical schools, (b) the attainment of post-school qualifications, (c) the longer-term labour market outcomes as represented by job status and earnings. We link results to research into the effects of increasing the school minimum leaving age from 14 to 15, also introduced under the 1944 Act.
    Keywords: 1944 Education Act; date of birth; family background; qualifications; earnings
    Date: 2012–05
  25. By: Suresh Naidu
    Abstract: This paper estimates the political and economic effects of the 19th century disenfranchisement of black citizens in the U.S. South. Using adjacent county-pairs that straddle state boundaries, I examine the effect of voting restrictions on political competition, public goods, and factor markets. I find that poll taxes and literacy tests each lowered overall electoral turnout by 8-22% and increased the Democratic vote share in elections by 1-7%. Employing newly collected data on schooling inputs, I show that disenfranchisement reduced the teacher-child ratio in black schools by 10-23%, with no significant effects on white teacher-child ratios. I develop a model of suffrage restriction and redistribution in a 2-factor economy with migration and agricultural production to generate sufficient statistics for welfare analysis of the incidence of black disenfranchisement. Consistent with the model, disenfranchised counties experienced a 3.5% increase in farm values per acre, despite a 4% fall in the black population. The estimated factor market responses suggest that black labor bore a collective loss from disenfranchisement equivalent to at least 15% of annual income, with landowners experiencing a 12% gain.
    JEL: H7 N11
    Date: 2012–06
  26. By: Grieve, Roy
    Abstract: Although it might have been expected that, by this point in time, the unacceptability of the marginal productivity theory of the return on capital would be universally agreed, that is evidently not the case. Popular textbooks still propound the dogma to the innocent. This note is presented in the hope that a succinct indication of the origins of the theory it will contribute to a more general appreciation of the unrealistic and illogical nature of this doctrine.
    Keywords: marginal revolution, marginal productivity theory of distribution, reswitching,
    Date: 2012
  27. By: Graddy, Kathryn
    Abstract: Roger de Piles (1635-1709) was a French art critic who decomposed the style and ability of each artist into areas of composition, drawing, color and expression, rating each on a 20 point scale. Based on evidence from two datasets that together span from 1740 to the present, this paper shows that de Piles’ four characteristics are each both currently and historically correlated with prices achieved at auction. The effect of de Piles’ drawing characteristic on price has steadily decreased over the period 1736-1960 while the effect of de Piles’ color characteristic appears to have increased over the same period. De Piles’ overall ratings have also withstood the test of a very long period of time, with estimates indicating that the works of his higher-rated artists achieved a greater return than his lower rated artists. The annual returns of all artists that he rated achieved comparable returns to other art indices.
    Keywords: art; de Piles; expert opinion; rankings
    JEL: N00 Z11
    Date: 2012–06
  28. By: Salih, Thamir M.
    Abstract: For the period between 1957 and 1997, Malaysia’s development is analysed to determine the roles of inputs, planning, trade and government intervention in economic activity. Foreign investment is also analysed. During this period, by international standards, growth that Malaysia experienced was impressive. This growth was achieved through a policy framework that used government planning and investment in conjunction with incentives for the private sector. A unique feature of Malaysia’s planning was its call for social justice to advance the economic interest of its less economically privileged population. By adopting amalgam of development strategies and policies, policymakers were successful in improving the socio-economic status of the majority of the Malaysian population.
    Keywords: Economic Development, Export, Growth, Investment, Planning, Sustainability, Country Studies: Malaysia., Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2012
  29. By: Craig, Lee / A.; Holt, Matthew / T,
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of mechanical refrigeration in temporal and spatial price relationships for regional egg markets in the United States, 1880–1911. Notably, this period encompasses an era in which widespread adoption of mechanical refrigeration greatly impacted the ability to briefly store otherwise perishable items. This development in turn altered observed price dynamics for many perishable commodities, including fresh eggs. We use a class of time series models, time–varying autoregressions (TVARs), to document both the structural change and the corresponding impact on spatial price dynamics for U.S. regional egg price relationships during the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
    Keywords: Egg prices; Half life; Law of one price; Refrigeration; Structural change; Time–varying smooth transition autoregression
    JEL: Q13 C22 R11 N91
    Date: 2012–06–19
  30. By: Peter Teibenbacher
    Abstract: There is a substantial body of literature on the subject of fertility decline in Europe during the first demographic transition. Historical demographic research on this topic started in Western Europe, but, as a result of the discussion of the Hajnal line thesis, the decline in fertility has been more thoroughly explored for Eastern Europe (especially Poland and Hungary) than for areas in between, like Austria. This project and this working paper will seek to close this gap by addressing the question of whether the Austrian Crown lands in the southeast represented not just an administrative, but also a demographic border. Using aggregated data from the political districts, this paper will review the classic research about, as well as the methods and definitions of, fertility decline. Our results show that, even the Crown land level, which was used in the Princeton Fertility Project, is much too high for studying significant regional and systemic differences and patterns of fertility changes and decline. This process is interpreted as a result of economic and social modernization, which brought new challenges, as well as new options. Thus, fertility decline should not be seen as a linear and sequential process, but rather as a process driven by the sometimes paradoxical interdependencies of problems and opportunities faced by families and social groups.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2012–06
  31. By: Ke, Changxia; Konrad, Kai A.; Morath, Florian
    Abstract: Victorious alliances often fight about the spoils of war. We consider experimentally when members of victorious alliances accept a peaceful division of the spoils, and when they fight against each other, and how the inability to commit to a peaceful division affects their effort contributions in their fight against a common enemy. First, we find that an asymmetric split of the prize induces a higher likelihood of internal fight and, in turn, reduces the effort contributions in the fight against a joint enemy. Second, non-binding declarations on how to divide the spoils in case of victory do not help to mitigate the holdup problem. --
    Keywords: conflict,contest,alliance,hold-up problem,experiment
    JEL: D72 D74
    Date: 2012
  32. By: Coibion, Olivier (College of William and Mary); Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Kueng, Lorenz (Northwestern University); Silvia, John (Wells Fargo)
    Abstract: We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary shocks can account for a significant component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.
    Keywords: monetary policy, income inequality, consumption inequality
    JEL: E3 E4 E5
    Date: 2012–06
  33. By: Josephson, Rea M.; Watt, J.B.
    Keywords: Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital,
    Date: 2012–05–31
  34. By: Duleep, Harriet (College of William and Mary); Sanders, Seth G. (Duke University)
    Abstract: In contrast to their relative standing in today's labor market, in 1960 U.S.-born men in all Asian groups earned substantially less than comparable whites. We explore explanations for the wage gap and find that all of the variables that might plausibly account for it, such as Asian/white differences in schooling, labor force participation, entrepreneurial and agricultural employment, English proficiency, enclave activity, and foreign-born parentage, have either no effect or only modest effects on the 1960 wage gap and its subsequent reduction. Our findings suggest that anti-Asian labor market discrimination was the predominate cause of the 1960 wage gap and that most of the 1960 to 1980 improvement in the relative wages of U.S.-born Asian men stemmed from a decline in anti-Asian discrimination. Although much of the policy focus of the civil rights era was directed at reducing discrimination against blacks, our findings suggest a prominent post-Civil Rights Act labor market effect for Asians. If these results hold up to further scrutiny, one interpretation is that the Civil Rights Act and accompanying activities, and/or concomitant changes in societal attitudes, benefited all minorities.
    Keywords: anti-discrimination legislation, minority economic progress, Asian Americans, Civil Rights Act
    JEL: J48 J71 J78 J15 J18
    Date: 2012–06
  35. By: Spolaore, Enrico; Wacziarg, Romain
    Abstract: The empirical literature on economic growth and development has moved from the study of proximate determinants to the analysis of ever deeper, more fundamental factors, rooted in long-term history. A growing body of new empirical work focuses on the measurement and estimation of the effects of historical variables on contemporary income by explicitly taking into account the ancestral composition of current populations. The evidence suggests that economic development is affected by traits that have been transmitted across generations over the very long run. This article surveys this new literature and provides a framework to discuss different channels through which intergenerationally transmitted characteristics may impact economic development, biologically (via genetic or epigenetic transmission) and culturally (via behavioral or symbolic transmission). An important issue is whether historically transmitted traits have affected development through their direct impact on productivity, or have operated indirectly as barriers to the diffusion of productivity-enhancing innovations across populations.
    Keywords: Economic development; Growth; Intergenerational transmission; Long-run persistence
    JEL: N10 O11 O33 O47 O57
    Date: 2012–06
  36. By: Theriault, Veronique; Sterns, James A.
    Abstract: Applying John R. Commons institutional economic framework, this paper analyzes the evolution of the key institutions in the Malian cotton sector starting with the CFDT contract following the country‘s Independence in 1960; the nationalization of the cotton gin company, CMDT, in 1974; the completion of a vertically integrated market structure from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s; and, finally, to the current state of the market-oriented reforms in 2010. In accordance with John R. Commons’ economic theory, institutional changes in the Malian cotton sector have led to both intended and unintended consequences impacting economic performance at the farm, gin, and State levels, which in turn, has contributed to the emergence of new limiting factors. At present, the limiting factors to desired economic performance in the Malian cotton sector are: the lack of adequate extension services, high rates of indebtedness at both farmer and cooperative levels, difficulty in farming in an integrated system due to the limited access to cereal inputs on credit, low yields, delays in payment, and discordance between farmers and their union‘s leaders. Based on these findings, policy recommendations to revitalize the Malian cotton sector are drawn.
    Keywords: John R. Commons, Institutions, Cotton, Mali, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development,
    Date: 2012
  37. By: Greasley, David; Hanley, Nicholas; McLaughlin, Eoin; Oxley, Les; Warde, Paul
    Abstract: Genuine Savings has been proposed as an economic indicator of sustainable development, and has been the focus of World Bank sustainability assessments for countries globally. However, whilst the theoretical basis for Genuine Savings is well-established (Arrow et al, 2011; Hamilton and Withagen, 2007; Pezzey, 2004), its ability to forecast long-run trends in well-being remains un-tested. In this paper, we take a first step towards such an assessment by constructing a time series of estimates for produced, natural and human capital for Britain over the period 1760-2000, and use them to derive estimates of Genuine Savings. The next step in the project will be to compare these Genuine Savings estimates with a range of well-being indicators to answer the question: does positive Genuine Savings predict improvements in average well-be ing?
    Keywords: Genuine Savings; Sustainability; Economic History; Britain
    Date: 2012–04
  38. By: Avanzini, Marco; Salvador, Isabella; Gios, Geremia
    Abstract: Upland population levels are strongly correlated to environmental dynamics such as morphology, exposure and climate. A temperature fall leads to a shortening of the plant growth season, which can lead to lower pasture productivity and thus livestock can spend shorter periods in the mountains. The aim of this research is to correlate natural climate constraints with variation in the grasslands value in a selection of pastures located between 1100 and 1800 m in the Pasubio Massif (Italian Southern Alps, Trento). The correlation of this trend (derived from historical documents) with climatic oscillations in the same area derived from speleothems reveals that the variation in upland value was strictly linked to temperature and climate variations
    Keywords: mountain, climate, pastures, grasslands, Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2012
  39. By: Marine Agogue (CGS - Centre de Gestion Scientifique - Mines ParisTech)
    Abstract: Il nous semble que nous pencher sur une forme historique de collectif de conception inter-industrie dans des contextes de forts changements sociétaux et technologiques peut nous aider à mieux comprendre la nature et les processus d'émergence des collectifs contemporains. Nous proposons alors d'examiner l'émergence d'un collectif de conception inter-industries, la Lunar Society de Birmingham au XVIIIème siècle, dont la performance est aujourd'hui indéniable tant l'héritage du travail collaboratif de ses membres a profondément modifié l'Angleterre de l'époque. Nous nous référons aux travaux des deux grands historiens de la Lunar Society, Richard Schofield (Schofield, 1957; 1963) et Jenny Uglow (Uglow, 2002). Les sources permettant d'étayer l'histoire de la Lunar Society sont en fait peu nombreuses : même si la vie de certains membres (notamment James Watt et Josiah Wedgwood) fut l'objet les historiens des sciences et des techniques se sont en fait peu penchés sur l'histoire de cette société savante anglaise, comme le soulignait par exemple un article de Science et Vie consacrée à la Lunar Society en novembre 2002. Ce manque d'études historiques peut s'expliquer par le peu d'archives sur les activités de la Lunar Society. Ainsi, les travaux de Schofield et de Uglow s'appuient sur la correspondance que s'échangèrent les membres de la Lunar Society, et ne peuvent donc rendre compte avec exhaustivité de l'ensemble des mécanismes de coopération, les rencontres physiques entre les divers protagonistes n'étant que peu relatées. Néanmoins, les perspectives historiques que nous apportent ces ouvrages nous permettent de saisir, de manière assez complète, l'essence de ce collectif.
    Date: 2012
  40. By: Eric Schneider (History Faculty and Nuffield College, University of Oxford, UK)
    Abstract: This paper uses demographic data drawn from Wrigley et al.’s (1997) family reconstitutions of 26 English parishes to adjust Allen’s (2001) real wages to the changing demography of early modern England. Using parity progression ratios (a fertility measure) and age specific mortality for children and parents, model families are predicted in two reference periods 1650-1700 and 1750-1800. These models yield two levels of interesting results. At the individual family level, we can measure how different families’ real wages changed over the family life cycle as additional children were born. At the aggregate level, we can predict thousands of families using Monte Carlo simulation, creating a realistic distribution of median family real wages in the economy. There are two main findings. First, pregnancy and lactation do not create cyclical effects in the family’s income. Instead, most families’ welfare ratios decline steadily across the family life cycle until children begin to leave the household, increasing the welfare ratios. Second, Allen’s real wages understate or match the median of the predicted demography-adjusted distributions.
    Date: 2012–05–31
  41. By: Kirby, Mac; Mainuddin, Mohammed; Gao, Lei; Connor, Jeffery D.; Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din
    Abstract: We aim to model the impact of variability in and changes to water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin on flows available to the environment and irrigation, and impact on the value of irrigated agricultural production. Our objective is to understand the opportunities for changed management of the basin, how they are constrained by climate change and other factors, and how they might affect the returns to irrigation and flows for the environment, so that we may provide information to help plan for the future. In this paper we describe the model: in other papers in this conference we describe analyses of water availability and use in the basin based on this model. The hydrology component of the model is based on a simple, monthly water balance stocks and flows model of the basin, subdivided into 58 catchments. In each catchment, the rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are used to partition the rain between actual evapotranspiration and runoff. Runoff accumulates in the rivers, and flows downstream; it is stored in dams, fills lakes and wetlands from which it evaporates, spills onto and is partly consumed on the floodplains, is diverted for irrigation, eventually (if enough water remains) flowing out of the mouth. This hydrology part of the model is calibrated against observations of flow at the downstream flow gauge of the 58 catchments (the records of which vary from a few years to the full 114 years of our typical simulation period from 1895-2009). It simulates reasonably well the full range of flows, and the development of dams and irrigation diversions. The economics part of the model is based on regressions with dependent variables: the observed areas, production, water use and gross value of production of irrigated agriculture. Each dependent variable is estimated as functions of water available, evaporation and rainfall, and crop prices, for ten major commodity groups. The regressions are based on data for 17 regions and four recent years during the drought: they cover a wide range of water uses, water availability, rainfall, evaporation and commodity price circumstances observed during the drought. We report separately in this conference on this statistical analysis (Connor et al, 2012a. In the integrated model, the hydrology model first determines the availability of water for irrigation in the 58 catchments and also calculates the flows, on a monthly cycle. Once per year, the water availability values are aggregated to the 17 economic regions, and the economic model determines the irrigation outcome in terms of areas under each commodity group in each region and the gross value of production. The integrated model has some unique features in comparison to existing MDB economics models: the coupling of economics with detailed hydrology; the ability to simulate active management of environmental flows and the resulting consumptive water use economic impacts; and, the ability to simulate the dynamics of the water balance and economic impact over 114 year historical and simulated future climate sequences.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries,
    Date: 2012–02
  42. By: Bjerkholt, Olav (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)
    Abstract: Artikkelen behandler begivenheter som utspilte seg i 1876-77. I Stortinget ble det fremmet forslag om opprettelse av et professorat i statsøkonomi og statistikk. Forslaget fikk tilslutning av et stort flertall og etter Kongens godkjenning ble det umiddelbart satt ut i livet. Dette var det første "rene" professorat i økonomi ved Det kongelige Frederiks Universitet. Stortingsdebatten om forslaget og det etterfølgende tilsettingsprosess er behandlet utførlig. Artikkelen kan betraktes som en litt lang randmerknad til annet bind av UiOs historie 1811-2011, utgitt i ni bind i 2011.
    Keywords: Universitetshistorie; Torkel H. Aschehoug; Anders N. Kiær
    JEL: A11 A19 Z00
    Date: 2012–04–16

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