New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2012‒05‒02
seventeen papers chosen by

  1. State Capacity and Long-Run Performance By Dincecco, Mark; Katz, Gabriel
  2. Exports of Services: Indian Experience in Perspective. By Eichengreen, Barry; Gupta, Poonam
  3. Real Wages and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth in Germany, 16th to 19th Centuries By Ulrich Pfister; Jana Riedel; Martin Uebele
  4. The contribution of African women to economic growth and development : historical perspectives and policy implications -- Part I : the pre-colonial and colonial periods By Akyeampong, Emmanuel; Fofackm Hippolyte
  5. Natural Resources, the Terms of Trade, and Real Income Growth in Canada: 1870 to 2010 By Baldwin, John R.<br/> Macdonald, Ryan
  6. Shifting patterns of economic growth and rethinking development By Lin, Justin Yifu; Rosenblatt, David
  7. Wage and Employment Determination in Volatile Times: Sweden 1913–1939 By Holmlund, Bertil
  8. Large Mining Enterprises and Regional Development: Between the Enclave and Cluster By Andres Vallone; Miguel Atienza
  9. Making a living in rural societies in the North Sea area, 500-2000 By Vanhaute, Eric; Lambrecht , Thijs; Devos , Isabelle; Béaur, Gérard; Fertig, Georg; Gadd , Carl-Johan; Karel, Erwin; Limberger, Michael; Paping, Richard; Schofield, Phillipp
  10. La competitividad internacional de la industria vinícola española durante la globalización del vino By José Miguel Martínez-Carrión; Francisco José Medina-Albadalejo
  11. Deja vu All Over Again: Agency, Uncertainty, Leverage and the Panic of 1857 By Timothy J. Riddiough; Howard E. Thompson
  12. Os três ciclos da sociedade e do estado By Bresser Pereira, Luiz Carlos
  13. A new era of transformation in Ghana: Lessons from the past and scenarios for the future By Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Kolavalli, Shashidhara; Al Hassan, Ramatu; Thurlow, James
  14. Hicks' first impressions on The General Theory By Jorge Eduardo de Castro Soromenho
  15. Business cycle synchronization during US recessions since the beginning of the 1870's By Antonakakis, Nikolaos
  16. Less Income Inequality and More Growth – Are they Compatible? Part 8. The Drivers of Labour Income Inequality – A Literature Review By Rafal Kierzenkowski; Isabell Koske
  17. Ressources naturelles, termes de l'échange et croissance du revenu réel au Canada : 1870 à 2010 By Baldwin, John R.<br/> Macdonald, Ryan

  1. By: Dincecco, Mark; Katz, Gabriel
    Abstract: We examine the long-term links between state capacity and economic performance. Our database is novel and spans 11 countries and 4 centuries in Europe, the birthplace of modern economic growth. A dynamic simultaneous equation panel model indicates that the performance effects of states with modern extractive and productive capabilities are significant, large, and robust to a broad range of specifications, controls, and sub-samples. We find that the establishment of an effective state increased per capita GDP by 7 percent over a half-century and by 11 percent over a full century.
    Keywords: political regimes; state capacity; public services; economic performance; European history
    JEL: H11 O43 N43
    Date: 2012–04–23
  2. By: Eichengreen, Barry (University of California, Berkeley); Gupta, Poonam (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)
    Abstract: We survey India's experience with exporting services. We show that the country's experience is unique in that modern tradable services are a significantly larger share of GDP than in other countries at comparable levels of economic development. This has not always been the case, however; India's out-performance is limited to recent years. Policy initiatives, from trade reform to liberalization of domestic industrial and service sectors, were important for jump-starting the process. Panel and country-specific regressions for a cross section of countries point to the importance of a range of additional factors: overall economic development, communications infrastructure, access to foreign technology, and spillovers between the merchandise and service exports. Importantly, however, these factors, jointly or individually, do not wipe out the significance of a dummy variable for India. India, evidently, is a significant outlier as an exporter of services, and even more so as the period proceeds.
    Date: 2012–03
  3. By: Ulrich Pfister (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster); Jana Riedel (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster); Martin Uebele (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster)
    Abstract: The study develops a real wage series for Germany c. 1500-1850 and analyzes its relationship with population size. From 1690 data density allows the estimation of a structural time series model of this relationship. The major results are the following: First, there was a strong negative relationship between population and the real wage until the middle of the seventeenth century. The dramatic rise of material welfare during the Thirty Years’ War was thus entirely due to the war-related population loss. Second, the relationship between the real wage and population size was weaker in the eighteenth than in the sixteenth century; the fall of the marginal product of labor was less pronounced, and the beginning of the eighteenth century saw a marked increase of labour demand. Third, labor productivity underwent a strong positive shock during the late 1810s and early 1820s, and continued to rise at a weaker pace during the following decades. This growth was only temporarily interrupted by negative shocks during the late 1840s and early 1850s. Results two and three suggest the onset of sustained economic growth well before the beginnings of industrialization, which set in during the third quarter of the nineteenth century.
    Keywords: Standard of living, Malthusian economy, state space model
    JEL: C22 C32 J2 J31 N33
    Date: 2012–04
  4. By: Akyeampong, Emmanuel; Fofackm Hippolyte
    Abstract: Bringing together history and economics, this paper presents a historical and processual understanding of women's economic marginalization in Sub-Saharan Africa from the pre-colonial period to the end of colonial rule. It is not that women have not been economically active or productive; it is rather that they have often not been able to claim the proceeds of their labor or have it formally accounted for. The paper focuses on the pre-colonial and colonial periods and outlines three major arguments. First, it discusses the historical processes through which the labor of women was increasingly appropriated even in kinship structures in pre-colonial Africa, utilizing the concepts of"rights in persons"and"wealth in people."Reviewing the processes of production and reproduction, it explains why most slaves in pre-colonial Africa were women and discusses how slavery and slave trade intensified the exploitation of women. Second, it analyzes how the cultivation of cash crops and European missionary constructions of the individual, marriage, and family from the early decades of the 19th century sequestered female labor and made it invisible in the realm of domestic production. Third, it discusses how colonial policies from the late 19th century reinforced the"capture"of female labor and the codification of patriarchy through the nature and operation of the colonial economy and the instrumentality of customary law. The sequel to this paper focuses on the post-colonial period. It examines the continuing relevance and impact of the historical processes this paper discusses on post-colonial economies, and suggests some policy implications.
    Keywords: Anthropology,Gender and Development,Population Policies,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Gender and Law
    Date: 2012–04–01
  5. By: Baldwin, John R.<br/> Macdonald, Ryan
    Abstract: This paper studies the growth of the Canadian resource economy and the contribution of trading gains arising from increasing terms of trade to real income growth from 1870 to 2010. It combines a historical account of the growth of a succession of natural resources--examining both the production and price history of agriculture, forestry, mining, and oil and gas--with an overview of the impact of these developments on Canadian well-being. It uses estimates of the difference between real income and real output growth, based on measurement theory from the System of National Accounts, to measure trading gains that arose from increasing terms of trade over the period.
    Keywords: International trade, Economic accounts,
    Date: 2012–04–23
  6. By: Lin, Justin Yifu; Rosenblatt, David
    Abstract: This paper provides an historical overview of both the evolution of the economic performance of the developing world and the evolution of economic thought on development policy. The 20th century was broadly characterized by divergence between high-income countries and the developing world, with only a limited number (less than 10 percent of the economies in the world) managing to progress out of lower or middle-income status to high-income status. The last decade witnessed a sharp reversal from a pattern of divergence to convergence --particularly for a set of large middle-income countries. The latter phenomenon was also driven by increasing economic ties among developing countries, and on the intellectual scale, increased knowledge generation and sharing among the developing countries. Re-thinking development policy implies confronting these realities: 20th century economic divergence, the experience of the handful of success stories, and the recent rise of the multi-polar growth world. The paper provides descriptive data and a literature survey to document these trends. The paper also provides a brief survey of the role of multilateral institutions -- in particular, the World Bank -- in this changing context and offers suggestions on how they can adapt their strategies to improve development outcomes.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Achieving Shared Growth,Debt Markets,Country Strategy&Performance
    Date: 2012–04–01
  7. By: Holmlund, Bertil (Department of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper studies wage and employment determination in the Swedish business sector from the mid-1910s to the late 1930s. This period includes the boom and bust cycle of the early 1920s as well as the Great Depression of the early 1930s. The events of the early 1920s are particularly intriguing, involving inflation running at an annual rate of 30 percent followed by a period of sharp deflation where nominal wages and prices fell by 30 percent and unemployment increased from 5 to 30 percent. We examine whether relatively standard wage and employment equations can account for the volatile economic development during the interwar years. By and large, the answer is a qualified yes. Industry wages were responsive to industry-specific firm performance, suggesting a significant role for “insider forces” in wage determination. Unemployment had a strong downward impact on wages. There is evidence that reductions in working time added to wage pressure; yet estimates of labor demand equations suggest that cuts in working time may have slightly increased employment as firms substituted workers for hours.
    Keywords: Wage determination; labor demand; interwar labor markets
    JEL: J23 J31 N14 N34
    Date: 2012–04–18
  8. By: Andres Vallone (IDEAR - Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile); Miguel Atienza (IDEAR - Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile)
    Abstract: Over the last century, Chile has experienced a demographic and economic transformation that has shaped its economic geography. This article examines the evolution of the chilean urban system between 1885 and 2002. We estimate changes in the Zipf coefficient and the stability of the hierarchy of urban centers based on information from the Population and Housing Censuses. The results show a marked trend towards the formation of an increasingly asymmetrical system of cities that does not satisfy Zipf's law in the last two decades. At the same time, the hierarchy of cities has tended to be more stable, with a clear dominance of large cities that existed at the end of the nineteenth century and an increasing reduction in the variability among low-ranking cities.
    Keywords: Zipf law, urban economics, development
    JEL: R11 R12 O10
    Date: 2012–03
  9. By: Vanhaute, Eric; Lambrecht , Thijs; Devos , Isabelle; Béaur, Gérard; Fertig, Georg; Gadd , Carl-Johan; Karel, Erwin; Limberger, Michael; Paping, Richard; Schofield, Phillipp
    Abstract: This chapter deals with the central question in the book: "Rural Economy and Society in Northwestern Europe, 500-2000. Volume: Making a living. Family, income and labour" What happened to family forms in the rural societies around the coasts of the North Sea in the last one and a half millennium? How did resources become available to the rural family and to its members, and what strategies were employed to generate these resources? The approach of this book is based on an analysis of long-term changes in household formation and in the economic behaviour of its members within a social and regional context.
    Keywords: Rural societies; demography; family; labour; income
    JEL: N9 N50 N30
    Date: 2012
  10. By: José Miguel Martínez-Carrión; Francisco José Medina-Albadalejo
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the international competitiveness of Spanish wine industry at the stage of 'wine globalization'. Examine the comparative advantage through the index of Revealed Competitive Advantage (RCA) or Balassa Index and explores the evolutionary behavior by type of wine and the relative weight of exports in volume, value and unit prices in the world market since the 1960's. It shows that Spanish wine industry is specialized in quality cheap wines, bulk wine and low cost wine despite the success of the export in recent decades. Although improved quality and increased exports of bottled wines with denomination of origin, the competitiveness of the Spanish wine industry is among the lowest in countries specialized.
    Keywords: Revealed Competitive Advantage (RCA), Wine world market, Spanish wine industry, International trade, Competitiveness
    JEL: F14 L66 N74 Q17
    Date: 2012–03
  11. By: Timothy J. Riddiough (University of Wisconsin and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research); Howard E. Thompson (University of Wisconsin)
    Abstract: The panic of 1857 is revisited with the benefit of hindsight provided by the panic of 2007-08, where a number of parallels are identified between the two panics. We present new evidence on causes of the failure of the financial institution that triggered the panic of 1857 and conduct a detailed analysis of railroad financial and accounting practices. New financial innovations are also studied-the railroad farm mortgage and farm mortgage-backed security-which had similarities to the modern sub-prime mortgage loan and MBS. Neglected risks and Knightian uncertainty appear to be fundamental reasons why investors continued to participate in a boom market that was also extremely fragile.
    Date: 2012–04
  12. By: Bresser Pereira, Luiz Carlos
    Abstract: The history of independent Brazil may be divided in three major political cycles, and, since 1930, we can distinguish five political pacts or class coalitions. Since 1930 these pacts have been nationalist. Only in the 1990s the Brazilian elites surrendered to the neoliberal hegemony. Yet, since the mid 2000s, they are recovering their idea of nation. In fact, the main claim of the essay is that Brazilian elites and the Brazilian society are “national-dependent”, i.e., they are ambiguous and contradictory, requiring an oxymoron to define them. The elite is dependent because it often sees itself as “European” and its people as inferior. But Brazil is big enough and around its domestic market there are enough common interests to make the Brazilian nation less ambiguous. Today, it searches for a synthesis between the two last political cycles – between social justice and economic development in the framework of democracy.
    Date: 2012–04–16
  13. By: Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Kolavalli, Shashidhara; Al Hassan, Ramatu; Thurlow, James
    Keywords: Economic development, Economic conditions, Agriculture,
    Date: 2011
  14. By: Jorge Eduardo de Castro Soromenho
    Abstract: In this article, Hicks' first review article of Keynes´s General Theory is discussed. First we analyze the influence of Hayek's theory on the work of Hicks. We show how Hicks, reflecting on the Austrian theory of the business cycle, created the concepts of "week" and temporary equilibrium. Then we discuss how these concepts of time and equilibrium are reformulated to interpret the General Theory
    Keywords: John Hicks, Keynesian economics
    JEL: B22
  15. By: Antonakakis, Nikolaos
    Abstract: This paper examines the synchronization of business cycles across the G7 countries during US recessions since the 1870's. Using a dynamic measure of business cycle synchronization, results depend on the globalisation period under consideration. On average, US recessions have significantly positive effects on business cycle co-movements only in the period following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, while strongly decoupling effects among the G7 economies are documented during recessions that occurred under the classical Gold Standard. During the 2007-2009 recession, business cycles co-movements increased to unprecedented levels.
    Keywords: Dynamic conditional correlation; Business cycle synchronization; Recession; Globalisation
    JEL: F4 E32 N10 F41 E3
    Date: 2012–04
  16. By: Rafal Kierzenkowski; Isabell Koske
    Abstract: Despite a general trend of increasing labour income inequality, there have been differences in the timing, intensity and even direction of these changes across OECD countries. These stylized facts have led to numerous studies about the main determinants of labour income inequality and, as a result, a significant revision of the previous consensus about the key drivers. The most researched channels include skill-biased technological change, international trade, immigration, education as well as the role of labour market policies and institutions.<P>Moins d'inégalités de revenu et plus de croissance – Ces deux objectifs sont-ils compatibles? Partie 8. Les déterminants de l'inégalité de revenu du travail – une revue de la littérature<BR>En depit d'une tendance generale a l.augmentation des inegalites de revenu du travail, des differences sont apparues quant a l.occurrence, l.intensite et meme le sens de ces evolutions au sein des pays de l'OCDE. Ces faits stylises ont mene a de nombreuses etudes consacrees aux facteurs principaux de l'inegalite de revenu du travail et, en consequence, d'une revision significative du consensus precedent concernant les determinant cles. Les canaux les plus recherches incluent le progres technique, le commerce international, l'immigration, l'education ainsi que le role des politiques du marche du travail et des institutions.
    Keywords: globalisation, trade, technological change, labour market policies, education policy, immigration, income inequality, labour income, progrès technique, politique du marché du travail, commerce, politique d'éducation, mondialisation, immigration, inégalité des revenus, revenus du travail
    JEL: D63 F16 I24 J31 J58 O33
    Date: 2012–04–03
  17. By: Baldwin, John R.<br/> Macdonald, Ryan
    Abstract: Le présent document étudie la croissance de l'économie des ressources au Canada et la contribution des gains d'échange qui découlent de la hausse des termes de l'échange à la croissance du revenu réel de 1870 à 2010. Il comprend un historique de la croissance d'une succession de ressources naturelles examinant la production et les prix dans les secteurs de l'agriculture, de la foresterie, de l'extraction minière, et du pétrole et du gaz, de même qu'un aperçu de l'incidence de cette évolution sur le bien être des Canadiens qui repose sur des estimations de la différence entre la croissance du revenu réel et celle du produit réel produites conformément au cadre de mesure du Système de comptabilité nationale pour évaluer les gains d'échange découlant de la hausse des termes de l'échange au cours de la période étudiée.
    Keywords: Commerce international, Comptes économiques,
    Date: 2012–04–23

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