|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2012‒01‒25
thirty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Wolfgang Keller; Ben Li; Carol H. Shiue |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide aggregate trends in China’s trade performance from the 1840s to the present. Based on historical benchmarks, we argue that China’s recent gains are not exclusively due to the reforms since 1978. Rather, foreign economic activity can be understood by developments that were set in motion in the 19th century. We turn our focus to Shanghai, currently the world’s largest port. Shanghai began direct trade relations with western nations starting in 1843. By 1853, Shanghai already accounted for more than half of China’s foreign trade. In tracking the levels and growth rates of the city’s net and gross imports and exports, foreign direct investment, and foreign residents over more than a century, we find that Shanghai’s level of bilateral trade today with the United States, the United Kingdom, or Japan, for example, are by no means high given Shanghai’s 19th century experience. This paper argues that a regional approach that embeds national trading destinations within an international trading system provides a meaningful approach to understanding the history of China’s trade. |
| JEL: | F10 F22 F23 N81 N83 N85 N95 O43 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17754&r=his |
| By: | Shachmurove, Tomer; Shachmurove, Yochanan |
| Abstract: | Like many countries, Spain has gone through a series of financial crises, both before and after its industrialization. There are many underlying causes for these crises, as well as for the current Spanish downturn. It is worth noting that there are similarities between recessions throughout the history of Spain. The role of government spending, government regulation, credit institutions, budget deficits, the political climate, and international trade have been important determinants of the state of the Spanish economy, as they have been in other economies across the globe. |
| Keywords: | Spain; Spanish Economy; Financial Crises; Federal Budget Deficit; Banking Crises; Subprime Mortgage; Spanish Industrial Revolution; Economic History; Political Economy; International Trade; Government Regulation |
| JEL: | N1 E0 F0 N2 E6 E44 G38 G18 N0 E5 G0 E3 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36012&r=his |
| By: | Peter Foldvari; Bas van Leeuwen; Jan Luiten van Zanden (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | Migration always played an important role in Dutch society. However, little quantitative evidence on its effect on economic development is known for the period before the 20th century even though some stories exist about their effect on the Golden Age. Applying a new dataset on migration and growth for the period 1510-1900 in a system of equations, we find that in the Golden Age, the 18th century, and the 19th century there was a direct positive effect of migration on productivity. However, when taking account of indirect effects via humanand physical capital, only during the Golden Age the net effect of migration on per capita GDP was positive. This seems to confirm those studies that claim that the Golden Age at least partially benefitted from immigration. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, Immigration, Holland, endogenous development, Human capital |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0025&r=his |
| By: | Ewout Frankema (Utrecht University); Marlous van Waijenburg |
| Abstract: | Recent studies on African economic history have emphasized the structural impediments to African growth, such as adverse geographical conditions and extractive colonial institutions. The evidence is mainly drawn from cross-country regressions on late 20th century income levels, assuming persistent effects of historical causes over time. But to which extent has African poverty been a persistent phenomenon? Our study sheds light on this question by providing new evidence on long-term African growth-trajectories. We show that slave trade regressions are not robust for pre-1970s GDP per capita levels, or for pre-1973 and post-1995 growth rates. We calculate urban unskilled real wages of African workers in nine British African countries 1880-1965, adopting Allen’s (2009) subsistence basket methodology. We find that real wages were above subsistence level, rose significantly over time and were, in major parts of British Africa, considerably higher than real wages in Asian cities up to, at least the 1930s. We explain the intra-African variation in real wage levels by varying colonial institutions concerning land alienation, taxation and immigration. |
| Keywords: | Africa, living standards, real wages, labor market, colonial institutions |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0024&r=his |
| By: | Leticia Arroyo Abad; Elwyn A.R. Davies; Jan Luiten van Zanden |
| Abstract: | On the basis of a newly constructed dataset, this paper presents long-term series of the price levels, nominal wages, and real wages in Spanish Latin America – more specifically in Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina – between ca. 1530 and ca. 1820. It synthesizes the work of scholars who have collected and published data on individual cities and periods, and presents comparable indices of real wages and prices in the colonial period that give a reasonable guide to trends in the long run. We show that wages and prices were on average much higher than in Western Europe or in Asia, a reflection of the low value of silver that must have had consequences for competitiveness of the Latin American economies. Labour scarcity was the second salient feature of Spanish Latin America and resulted in real wages much above subsistence and in some cases (Mexico, Bolivia, Argentina) comparable to levels in Northwestern Europe. For Mexico, this was caused by the dramatic decline of the population after the Conquest. For Bolivia, the driving force was the boom in silver mining in Potosi that created a huge demand for labour. In the case of Argentina, low population density was a pre-colonial feature. Perhaps due to a different pattern of depopulation, the real wages of other regions (Peru, Colombia, Chile) were much lower, and only increased above subsistence during the first half of the 18th century. These results are consistent with independent evidence on biological standards of living and with estimates of GDP per capita at the beginning of the 19th century.? |
| Keywords: | Wages, Prices, Latin America, Early Modern Period |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0020&r=his |
| By: | Bas van Leeuwen |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimate inequality in Indonesia between 1932 and 1999. There was an increase in inequality at the start of this period but then a sharp decline from the 1960s. A shift from domestic to export agriculture over the period up to the Great Depression accounts for the increase in inequality. During the 1930s, as the price of export crops declined, the income of rich farmers suffered a blow. Yet, this was counterbalanced by increasing gap between expenditure in the urban and rural sectors, causing an over-all rise in inequality. As for the second half of the century, we find that the employment shift towards manufacturing and services, combined with an increase in labour productivity in agriculture, accounts for the decline in inequality. These inequality trends had an effect on poverty as well, but prior to the 1940s the negative impact of the rise in inequality was offset by an increase in per capita GDP. Between 1950 and 1980 a decline in inequality, combined with increased per capita GDP rapidly raised a large portion of the population above the poverty line. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, inequality, poverty, economic development |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0026&r=his |
| By: | Michael Kopsidis (IAMO Halle); Nikolaus Wolf (Humboldt-University Berlin and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the pattern of agricultural productivity across 19th century Prussia to gain new insights on the causes of the ÒLittle DivergenceÓ between European regions. We argue that access to urban demand was the dominant factor explaining the gradient of agricultural productivity as had been suggested much earlier theoretically by von ThŸnen (1826) and empirically by Engel (1867). This is in line with recent findings on a limited degree of interregional market integration in 19th century Prussia. |
| Keywords: | Prussia, Agricultural Productivity, Industrialisation, Market Access |
| JEL: | N53 O43 O47 Q13 R12 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0013&r=his |
| By: | Jelle van Lottum; Jan Luiten van Zanden |
| Abstract: | Pre-modern growth was to a large extent dependent on processes of commercialization and specialization, based on cheap transport. Seminal interpretations of the process of economic growth before the Industrial Revolution have pointed to the strategic importance of the rise of the Atlantic economy and the growth of cities linked to this but have not really explained why Europeans were so efficient in organizing large international networks of shipping and trade. Most studies concerning early modern shipping have focused on changes in shipdesign in explaining long-term performance of European shipping in the pre-1800 period. In this paper we argue that this is only part of the explanation. Human capital – the quality of the labour force employed on ships – mattered as well. We firstly demonstrate that levels of human capital on board European ships were very high, much higher than the average for the countries from which the crew was recruited, and secondly that there were close links between the level of labour productivity in shipping and the quality of the workforce. This suggests strongly that shipping was a ‘high tech’ industry not only employing high quality capital goods, but also, as a complementary input, high quality labour, which was required to operate the increasingly complex ships and their equipment. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Shipping, Early Modern Period |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0022&r=his |
| By: | Cantoni, Davide; Yuchtman, Noam |
| Abstract: | Individuals’ choices of educational content are often shaped by the political economy of government policies that determine the incentives to acquire various skills. We first present a model to show how differences in educational content emerge as an equilibrium outcome of private decisions and government policy choices. We then illustrate these dynamics in two historical circumstances. In medieval Europe, states and the Church found individuals trained in Roman law valuable, and eventually supported investments in this new form of human capital. This had positive effects on Europe’s commercial and institutional development. In late 19th-century China, elites were afraid of the introduction of Western science and engineering and continued to select civil servants - who enjoyed substantial rents—based on their knowledge of Confucian classics. As a result, China lacked skills useful in modern industry. Finally, we present a variety of other contemporary and historical applications of this theory. |
| Keywords: | Educational Content; Educational Institutions; Political Economy; Development |
| JEL: | N30 I25 O11 O43 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:12691&r=his |
| By: | Francesco Cinnirella (Ifo Institute and CESifo, Munich); Erik Hornung (Ifo Institute, Munich) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of landownership concentration on school enrollment for nineteenth-century Prussia. Prussia is an interesting laboratory given its decentralized educational system and the presence of heterogeneous agricultural institutions. We find that landownership concentration, a proxy for the institution of serf labor, has a negative effect on schooling. This effect diminishes substantially in the second half of the century. Causality of this relationship is confirmed by introducing soil-texture to identify exogenous farm size variation. Panel estimates further rule out unobserved heterogeneity. We argue that serfdom hampered peasants’ demand for education whereas the successive emancipation triggered a demand thereof. |
| Keywords: | Land concentration, Institutions, Serfdom, Education, Prussian economic history |
| JEL: | O43 Q15 I25 N33 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0010&r=his |
| By: | Marc Flandreau (Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development, Geneva); Stefano Ugolini (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa) |
| Abstract: | The National Monetary Commission was deeply concerned with importing best practice. One important focus was the connection between the money market and international trade. It was said that Britain’s lead in the market for “acceptances” originating in international trade was the basis of its sterling predominance. In this article, we use a so-far unexplored source to document the portfolio of bills that was brought up to the Bank of England for discount and study the behavior of the Bank of England during the crisis of 1866 (the so-called Overend-Gurney panic) when the Bank began adopting lending of last resort policies (Bignon, Flandreau and Ugolini 2011). We compare 1865 (a “normal” year) to 1866. Important findings include: (a) the statistical predominance of foreign bills in the material brought to the Bank of England; (b) the correlation between the geography of bills and British trade patterns; (c) a marked contrast between normal times lending and crisis lending in that main financial intermediaries and the “shadow banking system” only showed up at the Bank’s window during crises; (d) the importance of money market investors (bills brokers) as chief conduit of liquidity provision in crisis; (e) the importance of Bank of England’s supervisory policies in ensuring lending-of-last resort operations without enhancing moral hazard. An implication of our findings is that Bank of England’s ability to control moral hazard for financial intermediaries involved in acceptances was another reason for the rise of sterling as an international currency. |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0007&r=his |
| By: | Enrique Llopis; Ángel Luis Velasco |
| Abstract: | This working paper central purpose is to study the magnitude and the evolution of mortality in the Guadalajara province between 1700 and 1865. The parish registers of baptisms and deaths in a sample of 25 local entities are the main source of data. The principal finding is the slightly downward trend in the gross mortality rate between 1750 and 1830s, only broken by a brisk surge during the first years of the XIX century. The dominant factor in the downward pattern is a pullback in adult mortality. |
| Keywords: | mortality, natural growth, Guadalajara, Spain, eighteenth and nineteenth centuries |
| JEL: | N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:seh:wpaper:1202&r=his |
| By: | Alexandra M. de Pleijt |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic growth models underline the importance of human capital in the process of economic development. This analysis introduces a new proxy for human capital, which is educational attainment, and examines cohesion between education levels and growth for England between 1307 and 1900. The empirical evidence suggests no significant result between basic skills, such as reading and writing abilities, and growth of per capita GDP. More progressive human capital levels, as measured by average years of higher education, seem to have contributed to the process of development until the mid-eighteenth century. |
| Keywords: | Economic development, human capital, history of education, England |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0021&r=his |
| By: | Carsten Burhop (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn and University of Cologne); Thorsten Lübbers (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn and University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | We investigate a sample of 180 technology licensing contracts closed by German chemical, pharmaceutical, and electrical engineering companies between 1880 and 1913. Our empirical results suggest that strategic behaviour seems to be relevant for the design of licensing contracts, whereas inventor moral hazard and risk aversion of licensor or licensee seem to be irrelevant. Moreover, our results suggest that uncertainty regarding the profitability of licensed technology influenced the design of licensing contracts. More specifically, profit sharing agreements or producer milestones were typically included into licensing contracts. |
| Keywords: | Economic History, Germany, pre-1913, Licensing contracts, Technology transfer |
| JEL: | N83 L14 O32 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2011_18&r=his |
| By: | Fernando Mendiola Gonzalo (Department of Economics, Universidad Pública de Navarra, and Research Group on the History of Prison and Punitive Institutions) |
| Abstract: | This article analyses the forced labour system created in Spain during the Civil War and maintained during the Francoist dictatorship, paying special attention to the economic logic that led the state and private enterprises to draw a profit from this kind of punishment. In order to deal with this question in depth my research has been focused on three main aspects: the workforce supply in a war economy and in a context of reconstruction, the margins of profit produced by this kind of labour in comparison with free labour, and the problems related to productivity levels. Through consideration of these questions I present an overview of the main research in the subject and make suggestions for new goals in Spanish economic history concerned with this kind of repressive practice, bringing it into line with international historiography on the forced labour economy. |
| Keywords: | forced labour, war economy, Spanish Civil War, Franco’s Dictatorship, prison economy |
| JEL: | J20 N34 N44 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0004&r=his |
| By: | Leandro Prados de la Escosura (Department of Economic History and Institutions, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid) |
| Abstract: | Long-run trends in Africa’s well-being are provided on the basis of a new index of human development, alternative to the UNDP’s HDI. A sustained improvement in African human development is found that falls, nonetheless, short of those experienced in other developing regions. Within Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen steadily behind the North since mid-20th century. Human development improvement is positively associated to being coastal and resource-rich and negatively to political-economy distortions. Contrary to the world experience, in which life expectancy dominated, education has driven progress in African human development during the last half-a-century and, due to the impact of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and the arresting effect of economic mismanagement and political turmoil on growth, advances in human development since 1990 have depended almost exclusively on education achievements. The large country variance of the recovery during the last decade suggests being cautious about the future’s prospects. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Human Development, HDI, Life Expectancy, Education |
| JEL: | O15 O55 I30 N37 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0008&r=his |
| By: | Giovanni Federico (European University Institute and University of Pisa) |
| Abstract: | Long-range market integration is an essential component of globalization but it is still comparatively under-researched. The conventional wisdom relies heavily on the case of Atlantic trade in the period after 1870. This paper covers also the Indian Ocean and extends the period under consideration, from Waterloo to World War Two. Integration started in first half of the 19th century, and timing and extent of convergence differed substantially among products. The second part of the paper analyses the causes of the process with a panel regression and puts forwards a tentative estimate of its welfare effects. The key message of the paper is that simple generalizations about the first globalization are not good substitutes for empirical research. |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0011&r=his |
| By: | Poelmans, Eline (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB), Belgium) |
| Abstract: | In 1951, six Western European countries founded the ‘European Coal and Steel Community’ (ECSC), which they hoped would be a first step towards more European integration and provide a common legal framework for their coal and steel industries. The main aim of the ECSC was to make sure that the West German coal and steel firms would never again reach their pre-war capacities, which according to many had indirectly led to World War II. Another important aim was to prevent the USSR from conquering West Germany. This article constitutes a case study of the regional concentration of the coal and steel industries in the six ECSC countries, and it investigates whether the importance of certain coal and steel producing regions within the ECSC changed between 1952 and 1967. Further, an analysis is conducted of how the concentration ratios of the ECSC’s industries differed between its six member countries, whether these differences changed over time, how this influenced the size and number of coal and steel firms and whether the ECSC succeeded in its aim of keeping West Germany small. |
| Keywords: | economic history; ECSC; European Integration; regional concentration |
| JEL: | F59 L16 L22 N44 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hub:wpecon:201113&r=his |
| By: | Marc Flandreau (Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development, Geneva); Juan Flores (Department of Economic History, University of Geneva) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a theory of conditionality lending in 19th-century international capital markets. We argue that ownership of reputation signals by prestigious banks rendered them able and willing to monitor government borrowing. Monitoring was a source of rent, and it led bankers to support countries facing liquidity crises in a manner similar to modern descriptions of “relationship” lending to corporate clients by “parent” banks. Prestigious bankers’ ability to implement conditionality loans and monitor countries’ financial policies also enabled them to deal with solvency. We find that, compared with prestigious bankers, bondholders’ committees had neither the tools nor the prestige required for effectively dealing with defaulters. Hence such committees were far less important than previous research has claimed. |
| Keywords: | Bondholders, Investment banks, certification |
| JEL: | N20 F34 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0002&r=his |
| By: | Minns, Chris; Wallis, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Despite poor information flows, high levels of uncertainty, and low completion rates, training through apprenticeship provided the main mechanism for occupational human capital formation in pre‐industrial England. This paper demonstrates how training premiums complemented the formal legal framework surrounding apprenticeship to secure training contracts. Premiums compensated parties for the anticipated risk of default, but in most trades were small enough to allow access to apprenticeship training for youths from modest families. |
| JEL: | O52 N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:41348&r=his |
| By: | Geraldine David (Universite Libre de Bruxelles); Kim Oosterlinck (Universite Libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | During World War II, the art market experienced a massive boom in occupied countries. The discretion, the inflation proof character, the absence of market intervention and the possibility to resell artworks abroad have been suggested to explain why investing in artworks was one of the most interesting opportunities under the German boot. On basis of an original database of close to 4000 artworks sold between 1944 and 1951 at Giroux, one of the most important Art Gallery in Brussels, this paper analyzes, the price movements on the Belgian art market following the liberation. Market reactions following the war are used to understand which motivations played the most important role in investorsÕ decisions. Prices on the art market experienced a massive drop. This huge price decline is attributed to two elements: fear of prosecution for war profits and the monetary reforms set into place in October 1944. |
| Keywords: | Art market, Art Investment, WWII, Belgium, Post-war, Monetary reforms |
| JEL: | N14 N44 Z11 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0012&r=his |
| By: | Javier Silvestre (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universidad de Zaragoza); Ma Isabel Ayuda (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universidad de Zaragoza); Vicente Pinilla (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universidad de Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Very few empirical studies have analyzed the labor market performance of internal migrants in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Using a new dataset, this article examines the occupational attainment of migrants, mostly internal migrants, in the city of Barcelona. We find that, in comparison with natives, the occupational outcome of migrants is partly explained by differences in labor market experience and skills. Nevertheless, other factors also appear to play an important role. Estimates, moreover, do not suggest the existence of improved economic assimilation over time. The results indicate that at least some groups of migrants faced barriers to occupational mobility. |
| Keywords: | labor market integration, migrants, occupations, historical labor market |
| JEL: | J24 J61 N34 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0003&r=his |
| By: | Rowena Gray (University of Essex, UK) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new picture of the labor market effects of technological change in pre-WWII United States. I show that, similar to the recent computerization episode, the electrification of the manufacturing sector led to a "hollowing out" of the skill distribution whereby workers in the middle of the distribution lost out to those at the extremes. To conduct this analysis, a new dataset detailing the task composition of occupations in the United States for the period 1880-1940 was constructed using information about the task content of over 4,000 occupations from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (1949). This unique data was used to measure the skill content of electrification in U.S. manufacturing. OLS estimates show that electrification increased the demand for clerical, numerical, planning and people skills relative to manual skills while simultaneously reducing relative demand for the dexterity-intensive jobs which comprised the middle of the skill distribution. Thus, early twentieth century technological change was unskill-biased for blue collar tasks but skill-biased on aggregate. These results are in line with the downward trend in wage differentials within U.S. manufacturing up to 1950. To overcome any threat to the exogeneity of the electricity measure, due for example to endogenous technological change, 2 instrumental variable strategies were developed. The first uses cross-state differences in the timing of adoption of state-level utility regulation while the second exploits differences in state-level geography that encouraged the development of hydro-power generation and thus made electricity cheaper. The results from these regressions support the main conclusions of the paper. |
| Keywords: | Technological change, skill bias |
| JEL: | J23 O33 N32 N33 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0009&r=his |
| By: | Douglas A. Irwin |
| Abstract: | On August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon closed the gold window and imposed a 10 percent surcharge on all dutiable imports in an effort to force other countries to revalue their currencies against the dollar. The import surcharge was lifted four months later after the Smithsonian agreement led to new exchange rate parities. This paper examines the political, economic, and legal issues surrounding the import surcharge. This historical episode may shed light on the possible use of trade sanctions as part of the effort to get China to allow the renminbi to appreciate more rapidly. |
| JEL: | F13 F42 F5 N12 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17749&r=his |
| By: | Joachim R. Frick; Jan Goebel (Eds.) |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwddc:dd61&r=his |
| By: | Miguel Urrutia Montoya |
| Abstract: | El artículo es una historia económica de la segunda parte del siglo XX, después del restablecimiento de la democracia en 1958. Se describen los progresos de Colombia en términos de ingreso per capita, cambios en la estructura de la economía, la participación femenina, los progresos y reversos en ciertos indicadores sociales, y los cambios en las políticas de desarrollo económico y de comercio exterior. |
| Date: | 2011–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:009254&r=his |
| By: | Marc Flandreau (Graduate Institute of International Studies and Development, Geneva); Kim Oosterlinck (Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Université Libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | The emergence of the gold standard has for a long time been viewed as inevitable. Fluctuations of the gold-silver exchange rate in world markets were accused to lead to brutal and unsustainable switches of bimetallic countries’ money supplies. However, more recent work has shown that the option character of bimetallism provided a stabilizing feedback loop. Using original data, this paper provides support to the new view. Using quotation prices for Indian Government bonds, we analyze agents’ expectations between 1860 and 1890. The intuition is that the spread between gold and silver bonds issued by the same entity (India) and backed by a credible agent (Britain) is a “pure” measure of the silver risk. The analysis shows that up until 1874 markets were expecting bimetallism to last. It is only after this date that markets gradually started requiring a premium to hold silver bonds indicating their belief that gold would eventually become the only metallic standard. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regime, gold standard, bimetallism, credibility, silver risk |
| JEL: | F33 N20 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0005&r=his |
| By: | Inês Veloso Ferreira (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto); Aurora A. C. Teixeira (CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto; INESC Porto; OBEGEF) |
| Abstract: | Export Promotion Agencies (EPAs) have been in operation in developed countries since the beginning of the 20th century to improve the competitiveness of firms by increasing knowledge and competences applied to export market development. |
| Keywords: | Export Promotion Agencies; Organizational Performance; Portugal; Ireland |
| JEL: | F13 D02 D23 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:0046&r=his |
| By: | Yulu, Chen; Yong, Ma; Ke, Tang |
| Abstract: | Based on a systematic review and summarization of China’s 30 years of financial reform and development, this paper comprehensively analyzes the past, present and future development of China’s financial system and also presents the mechanism for China’s financial development from the view of political economics. Generally, the Chinese financial system is bank-oriented. The property rights structure, led by state-owned banks, is the prominent feature of the Chinese banking system. Equity, bond, money, currency and real estate markets have been developing rapidly; however, the development rate of these markets varies, and institutional construction generally falls behind the market development. China’s financial decision-making authority belongs to the State Council, and the financial supervision system adopts the mode of “separate regulation.” China’s state-driven, progressive financial reforms have promoted the formation of the government-led financial structure, which is composed of three parts: first, monetary policy, balancing both inflation control and economic growth; second, bank credit expansion under the implicit guarantee of the state; and third, the adjustable pegged exchange rate system based on capital controls. The next phase of financial reform in China will mainly focus on the following four key goals: first, to further improve the corporate governance and the mixed operation of financial institutions; second, to construct the institution of a financial market system and improve the effectiveness of the financial markets; third, to re-integrate regulatory resources, combine macro- and micro-prudent views, and establish a comprehensive framework for financial stability; fourth, to promote the liberalization of interest rates, marketization of the exchange rate and the opening of capital accounts based on a progressive approach and to improve the openness of the financial system based on macroeconomic stability. |
| Keywords: | China; Financial System; Bank-oriented; Political Economics |
| JEL: | K0 G2 O5 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36027&r=his |
| By: | Juan Manuel Caicedo; Alejandro Gaviria; Javier Moreno |
| Abstract: | Este artículo presenta la primera aplicación al estudio de la realidad colombiana de culturomics, una nueva metodología de investigación de las ciencias sociales que describe tendencias culturales, sociales y lingüísticas con base en el análisis cuantitativo de textos digitalizados. El artículo usa la totalidad de las noticias y opiniones publicadas durante los últimos veinte años en tres medios escritos de circulación nacional con el propósito de describir las trayectorias de algunos fenómenos socioeconómicos y políticos: la corrupción, la división de poderes, el conflicto, el optimismo económico, etc. Más allá de los hallazgos concretos, este artículo muestra de qué manera puede usarse la metodología propuesta para describir la cambiante realidad de un país en desarrollo. |
| Date: | 2011–11–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:009253&r=his |
| By: | Bas van Leeuwen; Peter Földvari |
| Abstract: | Central and Eastern Europe is a region with widely divergent development paths. Up to WWII, these countries experienced comparable growth patterns. Yet, whereas Austria and West Germany remained part of the capitalist West and underwent periods of rapid growth, other countries, under state-socialist regimes, experienced on average far lower growth rates. The lack of data, however, often limits the possibilities of a detailed, quantitative analysis. In this paper, we use a new dataset on physical and human capital in seven Eastern and Central European countries for the period 1920-2006 to calculate the effect on economic growth. We analyse the effect of including the quality of education in human capital. This allows us to perform a growth accounting analysis with the several production factors for Central Europe between 1920 and the present. The difference in growth path across countries is partly explained by differences in efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Eastern Europe, human capital, physical capital, growth accounting, efficiency, long run growth |
| Date: | 2011–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0023&r=his |