New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2010‒12‒23
seventeen papers chosen by

  1. The population history of Germany: research strategy and preliminary results By Ulrich Pfister; Georg Fertig
  2. Gordon Unbound: The Heresthetic of Central Bank Independence in Britain By Sebastián Dellepiane Avellaneda
  3. Walras' Unfortunate Legacy By Alan Kirman
  4. Trade Disputes Between China and the United States: Growing Pains so Far, Worse Ahead? By Gary Clyde Hufbauer; Jared C. Woollacott
  5. On the Latin American Growth Paradox: A Hindsight into the Golden Age By Giorgia Barboni; Tania Treibich
  6. The Change of the Financial System and Developmental State in Korea By Kang-Kook Lee
  7. Aid and Development Policy in the 1990s By Arjun Sengupta
  8. Research councils facing new science and technology By van der Most , Frank; van der Meulen , Barend
  9. Granger non-causality between (non)renewable energy consumption and output in Italy since 1861 By Andrea Vaona
  10. Evolution of Employment Protection Legislation in the USSR, CIS and Baltic States, 1985-2009 By Muravyev, Alexander
  11. Banking in Savoy and embeddedness within local business communities (1860- (In French) By Hubert BONIN (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113 - Institut de Sciences Politique de Bordeaux)
  12. Der Aufstieg des Normalarbeitsverhältnisses in Deutschland – vom Ausbruch des Zweiten Weltkriegs bis zur Ölkrise 1973 By Kendzia, Michael J.
  13. El proceso independentista y la lucha por la hegemonía mundial; la perspectiva desde la constitución de Cádiz By Héctor Omar Noejovich
  14. L’entrepreneur, éléments d’une analyse parallèle Léon Walras / joseph alois Schumpeter (The entrepreneur, elements for a paralell analysis Leon Walras / joseph alois Schumpeter) By Sophie BOUTILLIER
  16. Barbut, Levy, Les Marchés Efficaces et Arrow By Alan Kirman
  17. Ciclos económicos y multiplicadores del gasto en Estados Unidos y México 1950-2003 By Guerrero, Carlos

  1. By: Ulrich Pfister; Georg Fertig
    Abstract: The paper presents the project of an aggregative reconstruction of the population of Ger-many from the sixteenth century to 1840, when official statistics began to provide complete coverage of all German states. The creation of estimates of population size and of annual series of the crude birth, marriage and death rates rests on three types of sources: First, pairs of partial censuses of hearths, taxpayers, communicants, etc. for the same regional aggregate at two different points in time are used to derive annual growth rates of popula-tion. This information is used to derive approximate estimates of total population size in ten-year intervals. Second, to develop aggregate series of vital events the project aims to analyse approximately 450 to 600 parish registers. Third, the project makes use of proto-statistical material on population size and the number of vital events that states began to collect selectively from c. 1740. On the basis of material from Gehrmann (2000), from published studies on c. 140 parishes and from selected other sources we construct a pre-liminary dataset for the period 1730–1840. Our cumulative rates of natural increase are broadly consistent with independent estimates of population growth. We use these series for two explorative analyses: First, on the basis of inverse projection we generate tentative estimates of the gross reproduction rate, of life expectancy and the dependency ratio. The results suggest an increase of the life expectancy and of the dependency ratio, the latter being the result of persistent population growth. Second, by adding a real wage series we study Malthusian adaptation with two methods, namely, VAR and time varying cumulated lag regression. The results consistently suggest the presence of both the preventive and the positive check during the eighteenth century. Whereas the preventive check persisted into the nineteenth century, mortality became exogenous in the early nineteenth century. Par-ticularly the 1810s turn out as a period of major change in at least three dimensions: real wages increased, life expectancies rose, and the positive check disappeared. Thus, Germany became a non-Malthusian economy well before the advent of industrialisation. Additional information suggests that market integration was a driving force behind this process.
    Keywords: Germany, history, population
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2010–12
  2. By: Sebastián Dellepiane Avellaneda (Institute of Development Policy and Management, University of Antwerp)
    Abstract: This article combines theory and historical narratives to shed new light on the politics surrounding the making of central bank independence in contemporary Britain. Its central argument is that Gordon Brown’s decision to rewrite the British monetary constitution in May 1997 constituted an act of political manipulation in a Rikerian sense. The institutional change involved can be conceptualized as a heresthetic move, that is, structuring the process of the political game so you can win. The incoming government removed a difficult issue from the realm of party politics in order to signal competence and enforce internal discipline in the context of a government that was moving toward the right. But building on Elster’s constraint theory, the paper argues that the institutional reform was not a case of self-binding in an intentional sense. Rather, Brown adopted a precommitment strategy that was aimed at binding others, including members of his government. The reform had dual consequences: it was not only constraining, it was also enabling. The institutionalization of discipline enabled New Labour to achieve key economic and political goals. By revisiting the political rationality of precommitment, this paper questions the dominant credibility story underlying the choice of monetary and fiscal institutions.
    Date: 2010–12–16
  3. By: Alan Kirman (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579)
    Abstract: What I argue in this paper is that the direction economics ,and particularly theoretical economics, took in the 20th century was to a great extent due to Walras' influence. This was not so much the result of his own results but rather a reflection of his vision. He was convinced that economics should have “sound mathematical foundations” and his concern for this is reflected in his correspondence with his contemporaries such as Poincaré. However, his specific vision of the nature of equilibrium became the benchmark for modern economic theory and led us to the Arrow-Debreu model which is characterised by its lack of institutional features, and the lack of any proof of stability under adjustment, as later to be shown by Sonnenschein, Mantel and Debreu. Above all there is no place in this framework for out of equilibrium dynamics. Whilst Walras is to be lauded for his insistence on the interdepence of markets, we should also be aware that he set us on a path towards economic models which, while admirably internally consistent, seem to be unable to match the empirical evidence. I fear that Walras would not have been unhappy with this outcome.
    Keywords: Walras; mathematical foundations; equilibrium; Arrow-Debreu model; interdependence of markets
    Date: 2010–12–09
  4. By: Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Jared C. Woollacott (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: This study covers the history of Sino-US trade relations with a particular focus on the past decade, during which time each has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Providing a brief history of 19th and 20th century economic relations, this paper examines in detail the trade disputes that have arisen between China and the United States over the past decade, giving dollar estimates for the trade flows at issue. Each country has partaken in their share of protectionist measures, however, US measures have been characteristically defensive, protecting declining industries, while Chinese measures have been characteristically offensive, promoting nascent industries. We also cover administrative and legislation actions within each country that have yet to be the subject of formal complaint at the WTO. This includes an original and comprehensive quantitative summary of US Section 337 intellectual property rights cases. While we view the frictions in Sino-US trade a logical consequence of the rapid increase in flows between the two countries, we caution that each country work within the WTO framework and respect any adverse decisions it delivers so that a protracted protectionist conflict does not emerge. We see the current currency battle as one potential catalyst for such conflict if US and Chinese policymakers fail to manage it judiciously.
    Keywords: Agreement, Anti Dumping, Antidumping, Commodity Agreements, Dumping, Duty, Export Promoting, Export Restrictions, Exports, Free Trade, GATT, GATT WTO, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, Import, Import Restricted, Import Subsidies, Import Subsidy, Intellectual Property Rights, International Agreement, International Trade Agreements, International Trade Organizations, Liberalization, MFN, Multilateralism, Non Tariff, Nontariff Barrier, Openness, Optimal Trade Policy, Protectionism, Protectionist, Quotas, Sanctions, Services, Smoot Hawley, Subsidies, Tariff, Trade, Trade Agreements, International Trade.
    JEL: F13 F53 N71 N72 N75
    Date: 2010–12
  5. By: Giorgia Barboni (LEM, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies); Tania Treibich (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques)
    Date: 2010–11
  6. By: Kang-Kook Lee
    Abstract: This study examines the role of institutions and their change related to the rapid economic development and the 1997 Korean financial crisis. In Korea, the government built a state- led financial system through the 1960s and 1970s and a specific government-bank-business relationship based on it. It promoted economic growth by allocating financial resources controlled by it to targeted industries or firms, with discipline over business achieved through these institutions. [Research in Progress 19]
    Keywords: institutions, rapid economic development, Korea, financial system, firms
    Date: 2010
  7. By: Arjun Sengupta
    Abstract: The 1990s will be the first decade after the revolutionary upheavals in the world economic and political system following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Democracy has spread into areas which were earlier citadels of authoritarianism. For the first time 'peace' seems to have a real chance. Nations have not only the opportunity to settle all their disputes through concord rather than conflict, but also a real possibility to build up a cooperative international order, which can extend well beyond the international political and strategic relations.
    Keywords: revolutionary, economic, political, opportunity, strategic relations
    Date: 2010
  8. By: van der Most , Frank (CIRCLE, Lund University); van der Meulen , Barend (Dept. for Science Systems Assessment, Rathenau Institute)
    Abstract: This paper addresses the question how research councils respond to emerging fields of science. Taking nanotechnology as its case, we compare the cases of responses of research councils in Finland, the Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland during the period 1990 - 2008. The case studies are based on extensive document study and 25 in depth interviews with relevant actors. The analysis is framed by Resource ependence Theory, which is found to overlook aspects related to long term changes and interactions between organizations and their environment. But when this dimension is added, it provides an explanation for the observed conservative response of research councils: research councils are constrained by a web of resource dependencies as it slowly develops over time and gets embedded in national research landscapes, in part as a result of research councils' own actions. We identify a four stage pattern which describes their conservative response.
    Keywords: research councils; research funding; emerging science and technology; interdisciplinary research; resource dependence theory; nanotechnology
    JEL: O30
    Date: 2010–11–03
  9. By: Andrea Vaona (Department of Economics (University of Verona))
    Abstract: The present paper considers an Italian dataset with an annual frequency from 1861 to 2000. It implements Granger non-causality tests between energy consumption and output following the Toda-Yamamoto and - on the basis of unit root, stationarity and cointegration tests - the Box and Jenkins approaches. We find that results can differ for renewable and non-renewable energy and we discuss policy and research implications.
    Keywords: renewable energy, non-renewable energy, real GDP, Granger-causality, cointegration
    JEL: C32 Q43
    Date: 2010–12
  10. By: Muravyev, Alexander (IZA)
    Abstract: This paper presents and discusses new data on employment protection legislation (EPL) in the successor states of the former USSR – the CIS and Baltic states – over 25 years from 1985 to 2009. We use the OECD methodology (OECD EPL, version II) for assessing the strictness of national labor laws with respect to employers’ firing costs. In addition to the overall OECD EPL index, we present detailed statistics for 18(22) sub-indicators used for its computation. The new data allow us to make several important observations. In particular, the data do not support the widely held view that labor regulations in the former USSR with respect to firing costs were extremely rigid and were subsequently liberalized by the 15 successor states over the course of transition to a market economy. Rather, the dynamics of the EPL index in the region resembles an inverted U-shaped pattern with the peak of labor market rigidity occurring in the mid-1990s in the CIS countries and a decade later in the Baltic States. In terms of major sub-indicators, we observe a rather unusual pattern: gradual liberalization of permanent contracts on the background of increasing regulation of temporary contracts and collective dismissals. This is in sharp contrast with the OECD economies, where liberalization of temporary contracts has been the major trend in the recent decades. By now, the ex-USSR states as a group do not differ that much from the EU-15 and OECD countries in terms of the overall EPL index, although they differ considerably in terms of contributions to the overall EPL of its thee major components, namely, regulation of permanent contracts, temporary contracts, and collective dismissals. We also show that our EPL data are correlated with a number of variables characterizing economic development, progress in market-oriented reforms, and political regimes prevailing in the countries studied, which suggests potential of using the new dataset in further politico-economic research.
    Keywords: labor market institutions, employment protection, transition countries
    JEL: J68 K31 P20
    Date: 2010–12
  11. By: Hubert BONIN (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113 - Institut de Sciences Politique de Bordeaux)
    Abstract: The annexation of Savoy by France fuels the issue of the fate of Banque de Savoie, because Banque de France was reluctant to share its monopoly as bank of issue, which explains the absorption of its rival in 1865. A second issue was the creation of local banking tools, embedded in regional business communities, as leverage to industrial clusters at the heart of the alpine productive system. Two big family banks and four mutual institutions reflected this Savoyard will to resist the grip of banks from Paris, Lyon, and Geneva. A third issue became the “type” of business model of Savoy banks, between a classical discount model, a type of enterprise banking committed to industrial finance in favour of customer companies, and, last, “regional banking”, quite mixed banking. Each period of the Savoy economic growth privileged this variety of models, before a convergence towards a more balance model of commercial banking took shape after WWII.
    Keywords: Banking ; regional economy ; clusters ; business communities ; financing small and medium enterprises; local banking; banking regionalism; local spirit of enterprise; banking places
    JEL: G22 N23 N24 N83 N84
    Date: 2010
  12. By: Kendzia, Michael J. (IZA)
    Abstract: This article provides a historical overview of the institutional development of the structural elements of the standard employment relationship from the beginning of World War II until the 1973 oil crisis. The analysis deals with the determining factors of the reconstitution and adjustment of these elements during that time. For this purpose, the interests of the actors involved are displayed. The historical analysis finds that the standard employment relationship attained its essential stature already prior to the pension reform of 1957. The preliminary peak of the institutional arrangement of the standard employment relationship was reached during the era of Chancellor Brandt in the beginning of the 1970s.
    Keywords: Normalarbeitsverhältnis, Beschäftigungsmodell, Lohnarbeitsverhältnis, Sozialpolitik, Sozialversicherungssystem
    JEL: J50 J40
    Date: 2010–12
  13. By: Héctor Omar Noejovich (Departamento de Economía- Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)
    Abstract: This paper aims to describe the Independence process as a result of an European fighting between France and England for getting World hegemony. Its analytical framework is supported by a braudelian scheme; longue durée, moyenne durée and court durée. As a result, the Latin American Independence was, in fact, a war between two ideologies;”liberal” and “absolutism”.
    Date: 2010
  14. By: Sophie BOUTILLIER (labrii, ULCO)
    Abstract: L. Walras, comme J. A. Schumpeter, avaient la même ambition : révolutionner la théorie économique. Ils atteignent cet objectif par des voies différentes (le premier par les mathématiques, le second par l’analyse sociohistorique). Ils formulent ainsi deux théories différentes de l’entrepreneur, agent économique central du capitalisme. Le modèle de Walras est statique. L’entrepreneur est rationnel par son comportement maximisateur. Le modèle de Schumpeter est dynamique. L’entrepreneur est le moteur du changement économique. Une analyse parallèle des deux théories montre cependant que l’écart entre ces deux analyses n’est pas aussi profond. L. Walras, like J. A. Schumpeter, had the same ambition: to revolutionize the economic theory. They achieved this goal by various ways (the first through the use of mathematics, the second by a socio-historical analysis). They formulate two different theories of the entrepreneur, the central economic agent of capitalism. The Walras’ model is static. The entrepreneur is rational by his maximizing behaviour. The Schumpeter’s model is dynamic. The entrepreneur is the engine of economic change. Nevertheless, the parallel of both theories shows that the gap between these analyses is not so deep.
    Keywords: entrepreneur, leon walras, joseph alois, schumpeter,annalyse, théorie économique, economic theory
    JEL: N10
    Date: 2010–11
  15. By: Sophie BOUTILLIER (labrii, ULCO); Dimitri UZUNIDIS (labrii, ULCO)
    Abstract: La crise économique des années 1970 remet en cause l’intervention de l’Etat, en raison de l’intensification de la concurrence internationale, de l’apparition des nouvelles technologies de l’information et de la communication et de la globalisation des marchés financiers. Depuis les années 1980, les Etats facilitent la création d’entreprise comme mode d’insertion sur le marché de travail. L’objectif est de créer un cadre propice au développement des affaires, c’est-à-dire de redéfinir le rôle de l’Etat en privilégiant l’offre. Ce texte analyse la politique de création d’entreprise au regard de l’indicateurdu climat des affaires de la Banque mondiale pour apporter une critique forte aux thèses justifiant la "société entrepreneuriale". The economic crisis of the 1970s challenged State intervention, due to increased international competition, the emergence of new information technologies and communication and to the globalization of financial markets. Since the 1980s, states have facilitated business creation as a means of integration into the labor market. The aim is to create an environment conducive to business development, which means to redefine the role of the state towards supply side policies. This paper analyzes the policies related to entrepreneurship under the indicatorBusiness Climate of the World Bank and discusses the pertinence of the "entrepreneurial society" thesis.
    Keywords: small businesses - industrial groups - innovation - groupes industriels - petites entreprises
    JEL: M21 M51
    Date: 2010–11
  16. By: Alan Kirman (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579)
    Abstract: Ce papier, préparé pour un symposium en l'honneur de Marc Barbut, discute des thèmes qui ont lié ses intérêts intellectuels et ceux de son laboratoire le CAMS aux thèmes de l'économie. En particulier il s'agit de l'historique de la notion de marchés efficaces et le refus systématique de la profession économique d'écouter les avertissements de Poincaré, Lévy, Mandelbrot et beaucoup d'autres quant à l'applicabilité de la théorie de Bachelier. Car c'est sur celle la qu'est basée la théorie moderne de la mathématique financière. Un deuxième thème concerne la structure mathématique du théorème d'impossibilité d'Arrow, des travaux de Guilbaud, le premier directeur du CAMS et Monjardet membre du CAMS, ayant largement contribué à notre compréhension de ce théorème.
    Keywords: marché efficace; théorie de Bachelier; théorème d'impossibilité d'Arrow
    Date: 2010–12–09
  17. By: Guerrero, Carlos (Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México)
    Abstract: Utilizando como marco de referencia el modelo de oferta y demanda agregadas, el documento identifica a los ciclos económicos y determina los multiplicadores del gasto en Estados Unidos y México entre los años de 1950 y 2003. El estudio aplica intensivamente herramientas cuantitativas –filtro de Hodrick-Prescott, análisis espectral, procedimiento de Johansen y filtro de Kalman. Los ciclos económicos en ambos países son asimétricos por su duración y volatilidad, y durante el periodo TLCAN aparece una relativa sincronización. El multiplicador del gasto de largo plazo en nuestro país es mayor al estadounidense –lo cual explica, en algún sentido, la superior volatilidad macroeconómica mexicana–, y en los últimos lustros el primero acusa una significativa reducción como consecuencia parcial del funcionamiento del modelo de desarrollo vigente.
    Keywords: sector TIC, crecimiento económico, metodología hedónica
    JEL: C43 E31 O47
    Date: 2010–11

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