New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2010‒01‒30
twenty-two papers chosen by

  1. Financial crises and financial reforms in Spain: What have we learned? By Pablo Martín-Aceña; Ángeles Pons; Concepción Beltrán
  2. The Political Economy of Trade Policy in Indonesia By Hadi Soesastro; M. Chatib Basri
  3. Industrial Agglomeration and Industrial Policies- The Philippine Experience By PIDS
  4. Money and finance: the heterodox views of R. Clower, A. Leijonhufvud and H. Minsky By Elisabetta De Antoni
  5. Agglomeration or Selection? The Case of the Japanese Silk-reeling Industry, 1909-1916 By ARIMOTO Yutaka; NAKAJIMA Kentaro; OKAZAKI Tetsuji
  6. Business Marketing of the Agricultural Co-operatives Association in Aomori Prefecture in the l900s and l920s: Building Cooperative Relationships among the Association, Associate partners, and Wholesalers By Izumi Shirai
  7. Rice in the Filipino Diet and Culture By Filomeno V. Aguilar, Jr.
  8. The Evolution of Rice Production Practices By Eulito U. Bautista; Evelyn F. Javier
  9. Detecting Hidden Violence: The Spatial Distribution of Excess Mortality in Rwanda By Marijke verpoorten
  10. Growth, fluctuations and technology in the U.S. post-war economy By Jesús Rodríguez López
  11. The cyclical trend of local public service governance: evidence from urban water management in Spain By Alberto Ruiz Villaverde; Miguel A. García-Rubio; Francisco González-Gómez
  12. Building Up and Improvement of the Institution of the Socialist Oriented Market Economy in Vietnam By Dinh Van An
  13. Mean Reversion in Long-Horizon Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Latin America By Pablo Astorga
  14. Building Up A Market-oriented Research and Education Institution in A Transitional Economy - The Experience of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University By Justin Yifu Lin
  15. East Asian Steel Projections for the 1990s Revisited By Peter Drysdale; Ben Garvey
  16. Trade Policy at the Cross-Roads By Bill Carmichael
  17. Skilled and Unskilled Wages in a Globalizing World, 1968-1998 By Davin Chor
  18. The Need for a Different Approach to Financial Reporting and Standard-setting By Östman, Lars
  19. The General Data Dissemination System (GDDS)-A Reflection on its First 12 Years and Plans for Taking it Forward By Charles Enoch; Robin D. Kibuka
  20. Creating First-Mover Advantages- The Case of Samsung Electronics By Jang-Sup SHIN; Sung-Won JANG
  21. Important Lessons from Studying the Chinese Economy By Gregory C. Chow
  22. Two New Zealand Pioneer Econometricians By Peter C.B. Phillips

  1. By: Pablo Martín-Aceña; Ángeles Pons; Concepción Beltrán
    Abstract: Like the rest of the world, Spain has suffered frequent financial crises and undergone several changes in its regulatory framework. There have been crises that have been followed by reforms of the financial structure, and also troubled financial times with no modification of the regulatory and supervisory regime. In various instances, regulatory changes have predated financial crises, but in others banking crises have occurred without reference to changes in the regulatory regime. Regulation and supervision has been usually absent in the XIXth century, while in the XXth century policy makers have been more active and diligent. Moreover, all major financial crises have been followed by intense financial restructuring, although as elsewhere banking restructuring and interventions not always have been successful (in fact, the cases of failures and mixed results overcome the successful cases). The paper provides a short history of the major financial crises in Spain from 1856 to the present, and also reviews the main financial reforms and the distinctive regulatory regimes that have been in place in this last 150 years time span.
    Keywords: Spanish banking, Financial crisis, Financial regulations, Banking reforms
    JEL: N2 N4 G18
    Date: 2010–01
  2. By: Hadi Soesastro; M. Chatib Basri (Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on Indonesia's trade policies after the economic crisis. It examines the trend towards protection and addresses the issues of competitiveness. The concluding part briefly discusses Indonesia's policies on and involvement in free trade agreements (FTAs), which have recently proliferated in the Asia Pacific region.
    Keywords: Indonesia, political economy, trade policy, economic crisis, free trade agreement
    JEL: F13 F15
    Date: 2010–01
  3. By: PIDS (Philippine Institute for Development Studies)
    Abstract: In the relatively new body of ideas dubbed “new economic geography� and “spatial economics,� we find insights on the potentials of industrial agglomeration for regional and national economic development. This paper looked into the evolution of industrial development in the country as a means of elucidating the centripetal and centrifugal forces leading to agglomeration of firms and investments. A micro perspective was provided with the case study extended into the prime region in the country, Greater Manila Area. It was found that industrial agglomeration in the country takes the form of special economic zones and industry clusters, indicating that the government is taking the route towards regional dispersal of industries and the clustering strategy to spur industrial dynamism and competitiveness and consequently, regional and national economic development.
    Keywords: economic geography, spatial economics, industrial development, economic development
    JEL: L52 L50 L51
    Date: 2010–01
  4. By: Elisabetta De Antoni
    Abstract: The heterodoxy of Robert Clower, Axel Leijonhufvud and Hyman Minsky consisted in dispensing with the dominant assumption according to which the system spontaneously tends to a situation of full coordination. In analysing the effective disequilibrium behaviour of the system, all three came to the conclusion that monetary and financial forces have a crucial importance for coordination and that their role can be highly destabilising. Contrary to the dominant theory, all three offer useful insights to understand what is happening today.
    Date: 2009
  5. By: ARIMOTO Yutaka; NAKAJIMA Kentaro; OKAZAKI Tetsuji
    Abstract: Plants in clusters are often more productive than those located in non-clusters. This has been explained by agglomeration effects that improve productivity of all plants in a region. However, recent theoretical development of trade and spatial economic theories with heterogeneous firms has shed light on another channel of productivity improvement in clusters, "plant-selection effects." This paper uses plant-level data on the Japanese silk reeling industry from 1909 to 1916 to distinguish between these two effects based on a nested model of firm-selection and agglomeration. We identify the plant-selection effect by using the fact that the two effects have different implications on the distribution of plant-level productivity. Major findings are as follows. First, we confirmed that plants in clusters were indeed more productive. Second, at the same time, the widths of distribution of plant productivity in clusters were narrower and more severely truncated than those in non-clusters. Finally, productivity distribution did not shift rightwards in clusters. Our findings imply that the plant-selection effect was the source of the higher plant-level productivity in silk-reeling clusters in this period.
    Date: 2010–01
  6. By: Izumi Shirai (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: This article analyzed the business marketing of the Agricultural Co-operatives Association established in Takedate Village in the Tsugaru district of Aomori Prefecture in 1907. In the early stages of the Meiji period, this area was considered as backward in terms of commodity production and circulation. However, the Agricultural Co-operatives Association has been highly evaluated for its business marketing across the nation ever since the mid-1910s, and has built a brand name for itself, We obtained the followings results. (1) By means of production inspection before packaging, the association made an effort toward not only the production of high-quality apples but also their trusted shipment in accordance with the brand name and standards established for itself. All these were extremely advanced efforts in agricultural commodity transactions. (2) However, until the early 1910s, the business sales of the association encountered certain problems. One problem was that the association partners had illegally sold apples to merchants and therefore, could not gather enough apples to sell. Another problem was that the specification wholesalers in the great city did not make all their payments smoothly. While being such status, the association thought much of the trust and the autonomy at the partners and the wholesales. It supported without laying down compulsion and a penalty regulation. (3) The problems mentioned in the above point were solved after the association received special awarding in 1916. The association became flagrant nationwide and succeeded in establishing a brand name image. The partners recognized that apples sold on behalf of the association should be done so at favorable prices. As the associationfs apples became famous in the markets of consuming regions, wholesalers came to recognize special wholesale contracts with this association as an honor. Consequently, the association grew to be an economic organization that took the initiative in product sales to wholesalers even in important cities such as Tokyo.
    Keywords: Japanese Economic History, Agricultural Co-operatives Association, , Institution, Market
    JEL: N55 N75 N85
    Date: 2009–09
  7. By: Filomeno V. Aguilar, Jr. (Philippine Institute for Development Studies)
    Abstract: This paper deals with a basic question- How central is rice to the Filipino, what are its implications for understanding the way we approach and regard rice, and what do they indicate about Filipino culture? To answer this question, the paper focuses on the structural position of most Filipinos vis-Ã -vis rice. The paper argues that, at present, most Filipinos relate to rice as consumers rather than as producers of rice. From that perspective, the paper explores certain cultural practices that may shed light on the role of rice in Filipino culture. In particular, the paper traces the transformation of rice from a prestige and mainly elite food to the staple food by the end of the nineteenth century. This was accompanied by a change in perception of the rice plant that removed the magical elements. Rice today is primarily a consumer product the consumption of which reflects the stratification of Filipino society, as supported by quantitative data on contemporary trends in rice consumption. The paper concludes with reflections on the diminished centrality of rice in Philippine culture as a consumer commodity. The commoditization of rice is linked to urbanization, industrialization, and the Green Revolution.
    Keywords: rice spirits, elite food, staple, rice consumption, commensality, commodity
    JEL: L66 E21
    Date: 2010–01
  8. By: Eulito U. Bautista; Evelyn F. Javier (Philippine Institute for Development Studies)
    Abstract: In this chapter, a summary of the evolution of major practices in rice production over the last 100 years in the country is presented. These practices essentially evolved out of the changes in the varieties introduced and planted by Filipino farmers, which have to change the manner by which production and postharvest operations have to be done in order to maximize productivity and reduce costs. Varieties were introduced in three major periods- the pre-Green Revolution era dominated mainly by traditional varieties which were planted once a year, the Green Revolution period of 1966 to 1988 which was characterized by the diffusion of modern high-yielding varieties which are planted for two seasons per year, and the post-Green Revolution period from 1989 to the present times. As varieties changed over time, farmers’ practices also changed to attain maximum yield potential of the varieties as well as in response to goals of higher productivity, greater efficiency, and, for the present period, environmental sustainability. From preparing the rice plots to rice milling, operations evolved out of the need for greater efficiency and higher productivity. Although the first period has been characterized by single rice crop per year and field operations were not necessarily done efficiently, farmers were already looking for better alternatives to conduct field tasks that were done either manually or with the use of carabaos. Much of these practices have been romanticized mainly because the social life of farmers and their communities evolved within the conduct of these tasks, often done with the assistance of relatives and neighbors. There were less inputs needed as yield from the traditional cultivars was limited by the plant itself so that labor productivity and time as well as efficiency were of less concern compared to the drudgery in the conduct of manual tasks. The period spanning the introduction and diffusion of short-statured, non photosensitive and early maturing high yield varieties, coupled with the availability of irrigation water from newly constructed irrigation systems, were quite different. Demands for efficiency and time became of greater importance to attain the high yield and double crop potential of these modern varieties. Tasks which formerly were not given attention to, such as fertilizer management, chemical control, threshing and drying suddenly became important to small farmers who suddenly found themselves tillers and managers of their own land due to newly passed land reform law. Techniques and equipment to accomplish these tasks were developed or improved upon so that this period revolutionized the whole rice production system. Research on land preparation, planting, fertilizer management, pest management, harvesting and threshing as well as drying and milling were actively pursued and promoted although farmers were selective in adopting only a few of these new breakthroughs. The International Rice Research Institute led in both the development of these varieties, management practices as well as machinery to answer the needs of farmers at this time. After the Green Revolution, concerns on costs and productivity including sustainability continued to become important as Filipino farmers struggle to sustain productivity gains over the past period while pursuing cost reduction measures as well. While neighboring farmers in Southeast Asia adopt modern practices and big machinery to attain economy of scale, our farmers continue to be selective of technologies that are efficient, inexpensive and with high potential for income generation from the neighboring fields. At this time, the Green Revolution technologies continue to be practiced while some crop care measures such as the integrated pest and nutrient management are further refined. We also see old practices becoming relevant again as the need for more efficient management of the decreasing amount of water becomes vital. Direct seeding, a rainfed area practice brought about by the early maturing varieties and the development of herbicides during the previous period, also continues to be increasingly popular due to less costs to farmers. The use of high quality seeds and the introduction of hybrid rice cultivars both from the public and private sectors are also pursued by government programs that continue to seek rice self-sufficiency levels enough to feed the increasing population of the country. Rice production practices is expected to continue to evolve to the changing challenges and needs of the times, when both the Filipino scientists and the rice farmer will come up with innovations that seek to pursue rice self-sufficiency and global competitiveness for the Filipino farmer. Direct seeding, mechanization and integrated nutrient and pest management will continue to be refined and practiced on wider scale. As new high yielding inbred and hybrid varieties that cater to new environments and conditions are developed and introduced, farmers will continue to adapt improved methods to plant rice and to maximize their benefits from producing it. Research institutions like PhilRice, the International Rice Research Institute and other research institutions will continue to lead in developing these innovations for more productive, profitable and sustainable rice production for the country.
    Keywords: paddy, rice production, farmers’ practices, traditional varieties, Green Revolution technologies, modern varieties, direct seeding, integrated nutrient and pest management, mechanization, postharvest
    JEL: Q16 Q10
    Date: 2010–01
  9. By: Marijke verpoorten
    Abstract: Rwanda experienced several forms of internal violence, including civil war,genocide, reprisal killings and (counter-)insurgency. While these events all occurred in 1990-1998, their geographic location within Rwanda differred, with the genocide especially severe in the South of the country, the civil war and reprisal killings mostly taking place in the North and East, and the (counter-)insurgency concentrated in the Northwest. In order to assess the relative impact of the different forms of violence, this article derives a detailed spatial pattern of excess mortality from the population census. In line with previous evidence on the death toll of armed conflict in Rwanda, we find significant high-high excess mortality clusters in the southern province of Butare, in and around Kigali City, and in the eastern province Kibungo. Furthermore, we present the first quantitative evidence to date of high excess mortality in the northwestern porvince Gisenyi, indicating that the 1995-1998 (counter-)insurgency inflicted a much higher death toll on the population than presently acknowledged by the Rwandan government, the UN and large western donors.
    Keywords: armed conflict, genocide, excess mortality, Rwanda
    JEL: J11 J15 Y80
    Date: 2010
  10. By: Jesús Rodríguez López (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)
    Abstract: This paper explores several issues concerning how technology affects growth and fluctuations during several U.S. postwar series. The nature of technology is divided into neutral progress and investment-specific progress. Accounting for several changes in the first and second order moments of these series (the slowdown of productivity in 1974, the moderation of 1984 and the resurgence in productivity after 1994), I find that the contribution of investment-specific progress to growth has increased over time. I also find that neutral progress is crucial in explaining the cyclical component of output (before and after 1984), contrary to results found in related literature. However, the shocks to investment-specific progress have played an increasing role in output and other macroeconomic variables. Finally, I conclude that moderation in the macroeconomic series can be associated with technology. In sum, the quality of technological processes affecting long run growth and fluctuations has changed over the past decades.
    Keywords: Productivity growth; Investment-specific technological change; Neutral technological change
    JEL: O3 O4
    Date: 2010–01
  11. By: Alberto Ruiz Villaverde (Universidad de Granada. Department of Applied Economics); Miguel A. García-Rubio (Universidad de Granada. Department of Applied Economics); Francisco González-Gómez (Universidad de Granada. Department of Applied Economics)
    Abstract: The level of public and private involvement in economic activity in societies has changed over time. One may talk about the existence of a cyclical trend in which the most important periods of public governance are replaced by periods in which private management dominates the situation. This phenomenon may also be observed in local areas. Some authors have pointed out the existence of an alternation in the provision of municipal services, resulting in periods dominated by governance compared to other stages dominated by private management. In order to illustrate this cyclical trend at local level, this paper intends to analyze the evolution of the governance of the Spanish water supply since the mid-nineteenth century to the present day. Recent evidence from the industry suggests the possibility that we may currently be witnessing a further change in the trend.
    Keywords: : Local Government, urban water supply, privatization, municipalization
    Date: 2009–10–10
  12. By: Dinh Van An (Central Institute for Economic Management)
    Abstract: The market oriented economic reform direction has been officially affirmed since the VI Congress of the Vietnamese Communist Party (1986) with the approval of the economic reform plan towards �doi moi�. This direction was then legalized in the Constitution (1992) and further developed in official documents of Communist Party Congresses and legal documents of the Government of Vietnam . In the past years, to specify this political direction, the Government and people of Vietnam have made endless efforts to establish a new economic institution system called the socialist oriented market economy.
    Keywords: Vietnam, Transitional Economy, Socialist Oriented Market Economy
    JEL: P20 P30
    Date: 2010–01
  13. By: Pablo Astorga (Latin American Centre, St. Antony's College, Oxford and Instituto Figuerola Universidad Carlos III, Marid, Spain.)
    Abstract: This paper analyses stability in real multilateral exchange rates in six leading Latin-American economies during the XXth century using a new data set. A univariate approach is complemented by an error-correction model including key fundamentals. Unit-root testing shows a very slow process of mean reversion – if any – in the series in levels; however, mean reversion is found after allowing for trends and structural breaks with half-life values ranges from 0.8 to 2.5 years. We also found reversion to a conditional mean defined by the co-integrating relationship, and that the equilibrium path is largely explained by fundamentals - especially terms of trade and trade openness. Exchange rate policy proved to have only a transitory effect in generating real depreciation.
    Keywords: Real Exchange Rates, Purchasing Power Parity, Economic Development, Latin America
    JEL: F41 N16 O11
    Date: 2010–01–01
  14. By: Justin Yifu Lin (China Center for Economic Research)
    Abstract: At the beginning of transition from the socialist planning economy to a market economy, China did not have a modern economics profession and the contribution of modern economics to China's transition was little. However, there has been increasing needs for modern economics education and research, as Chinese economy becomes more market oriented. To meet the needs, the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) at Peking University was built in 1994 with the initial supports and endorsement from the Ford Foundation and the World Bank. In the past 11 years, the CCER has expanded from six faculty members to 27 members, all with PhD training in economics from universities abroad, and become an important education and policy as well as academic research institution in China. Currently, the CCER provides undergraduate double-degree, MA and PhD in economics, MA in finance, and international MBA program to over 2,500 students each year. The CCER is also active in policy consultations with the Chinese government and international organizations, in addition to its excellent academic publication records domestically and internationally. The CCER's success is attributable to its members' devotion, personal qualifications, democratic arrangements, commitment to education and independent research, outreaching, networking, continuous innovation, and service culture. In the coming years, the CCER plans to strengthen its PhD program by student exchanges with other universities abroad, initiate a NBER/CERP type network, and a consortium of similar institutions in other transition and developing countries.
    Keywords: China, Education, Research, Market-oriented, CCER, China Center for Economic Research
    JEL: I22 I23
    Date: 2010–01
  15. By: Peter Drysdale; Ben Garvey (Australia - Japan Research Centre)
    Abstract: In 1989 a research team from the Australia–Japan Research Centre (AJRC) undertook a study of the prospects for the East Asian steel industry for the 1990s. The aim was to assess the impact of developments in the region on industry strategies in Australia. This paper reviews those projections to see whether they were right or wrong. It also examines the growth of the East Asian industry over the last decade in the context of developments in the industry worldwide and reviews Australia’s position in regional iron ore and coal markets during the 1990s. The central focus of the AJRC study was on what opportunities might emerge in Australia for the supply of processed steel product to the East Asian region in the 1990s. The main conclusion was that East Asia would shift from being a long-time and significant net exporter of steel product to the rest of the world to being a significant net importer of steel product, given then established trends in production, consumption and trade. At the time, this was a radical conclusion. It had an important impact on thinking about trends in the regional steel market in Australia, in Japan and elsewhere in East Asia. The main conclusions of the AJRC study turned out to be correct. The industry did not adjust to the pressures in the market exactly as predicted, partly because of the financial crisis in East Asia and Japan’s domestic stagnation. However, the conclusions about the growth of China and its impact on regional steel trade were particularly prescient. In the last decade, China has become the world’s largest producer and consumer of steel while Japanese consumption and production have contracted. Both South Korea and Taiwan have increased their shares of production and consumption of steel. Australia has entrenched its position as the dominant supplier of iron ore and coking products to East Asia.
    Keywords: Steel, Projections, East Asia, Japan, Australia, iron ore, regional steel market
    JEL: D23 D24 D02 F17
    Date: 2010–01
    Abstract: It is now widely agreed that the World Trade Organization (WTO) is in trouble, struggling to deliver the national rewards available from liberalising through multilateral negotiations. Prime Minister Howard and President Bush have committed to help restore the ability of the WTO system to deliver those rewards. This paper examines the contribution of domestic transparency procedures, introduced by and operating within participating countries, in dealing with the domestic causes of the problem facing the multilateral system. It explains the relevance of the proposal, prepared for Prime Minister Howard, in meeting the commitment he has taken. The Hong Kong Ministerial Meeting in December 2005 provides an opportunity to advance such a proposal and, in doing so, enhance our own trade performance. The author was involved, with Alf Rattigan and John Crawford, in establishing the Industries Assistance Commission and was its chairman from 1985 to 1988. He was a member of the international study group � chaired by the former Director-General of the GATT, Olivier Long � which drew attention during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations (1986– 1994) to the need for domestic transparency in trade policy. He co-authored a review of trade policy conduct of industrial nations, which was published by the National Centre for Development Studies in 1996. He and Professor Ross Garnaut prepared a domestic transparency proposal for Prime Minister Howard in February 2004 to provide the basis for an Australian initiative in the Doha Round. This paper explains how this proposal would contribute to restoring an effective WTO system by enabling domestic economic welfare to replace domestic political pressures as the driver of multilateral trade negotiations.
    Keywords: World Trade Organization, trade, policy, multilateral, negotiations, Howard, Bush,
    JEL: F13 F15 D72
    Date: 2010–01
  17. By: Davin Chor (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: This paper constructs a data set on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) adjusted skilled and unskilled wages in 139 countries for the period 1968-1998, based on the International Labor Organization's (ILO) annual October Inquiry and the Freeman and Oostendorp (2000) Occupational Wages Around the World (OWW) le. It nds strong evidence for the existence of well-integrated markets for skilled and unskilled labor, justifying the approach of constructing a skilled wage series and an unskilled wage series. Several signicant results emerged from an analysis of a representative subset of 67 countries which provided unbroken coverage for 1970-1994- (i) there is striking evidence of unconditional convergence in the skilled-unskilled wage ratio worldwide; (ii) this relative wage convergence was especially strong within a "club" of open economies, suggesting that Heckscher-Ohlin-Sameulson mechanisms might be at work; and (iii) there is a relatively weak pattern of convergence in unskilled real wages, implying that the claim of "Divergence, Big Time" (Pritchett 1997) has to be qualied when factor markets are studied instead of aggregate incomes.
    Keywords: Wages, purchasing-power-parity
    JEL: E24 J31
    Date: 2010–01
  18. By: Östman, Lars (Dept. of Business Administration, Stockholm School of Economics)
    Abstract: International Financial Reporting Standards are questioned. Possibly, there is a need for a different kind of standards and a different procedure for developing them. No doubt, there is a need for a more profound theoretical approach to these issues. Theory-building in accounting should include approaches whereby problem descriptions have a broad coverage and cross the boarders of traditional specialisations. In this paper, a theoretical approach is outlined. According to this approach, insights into control problems for every organisation and system can be gained by analysing relationships between global value chains and a hierarchy of one or several organisations. Time is crucial. Instrumentality is regarded as an inevitable and necessary guide line for any control system that relates resources to functions and visions. Instrumentality concerns the effects of tools on certain functions. In the paper financial reporting and standard-setting are placed in a wide context in which longitudinal relationships are essential for individuals, organisations and control systems. Basic financial accounting concepts and their relationships with business events are discussed. The importance of uncertainty for financial reporting is emphasized, and so is the fact, that control from top-levels is exercised at a distance. A tendency to instrumentalism is also recognized: measures and procedures, for example standard setting procedures, tend to be important in themselves, irrespective of ultimate economic functions in a wider perspective. The analysis in the paper is one application of a general approach to financial control for all types of organisations. The general approach is based on a number of previous research-oriented books published over several decades and the author´s specific own experiences from internal and external processes with organisations in focus. Consistency and integrative power of the ideas have been tested in relation to certain books in various fields outside the core of the subject: applied systems theory, theatre, sociology, economic history, institutional theory and economics.
    Keywords: financial reporting; International Financial Reporting Standards; standard-setting; accounting standard setting bodies; supervisory boards; corporate governance; transparency; market value accounting; mark-to-market; fair values; historical values; accounting theory.
    Date: 2010–01–19
  19. By: Charles Enoch; Robin D. Kibuka
    Abstract: The paper reviews the developments in the last 12 years that have influenced the evolution of the IMF's General Data Dissemination System, leading to reforms to enhance its role. The GDDS itself is part of a broader IMF Data Standards Initiative launched in 1996 to help address macroeconomic data deficiencies, which contributed to the emerging economies' financial crisis during the early 1990s. The review takes stock of the experience with statistical technical assistance provided to member countries and the ongoing reforms, within and outside the IMF, to strengthen the GDDS. Such reforms are particularly relevant in the context of the ongoing economic and financial crisis, which once again underscores the role of statistics in guiding policymakers to strengthen defenses against future crises.
    Keywords: Access to capital markets , Data quality assessment framework , Emerging markets , Financial crisis , Fund role , General Data Dissemination System , Special Data Dissemination Standard , Standards and codes , Statistics , Technical assistance ,
    Date: 2009–12–18
  20. By: Jang-Sup SHIN; Sung-Won JANG (Singapore Centre for Applied and Policy Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the sources of first-mover advantages by examining the case of Samsung Electronics, a firm which has maintained and strengthened the technological leadership in the DRAM industry since 1992. The focus is on endogeneity of first-mover advantages under changing technological and competitive environments, part of which are also shaped by the technology leader. The paper also discusses general implications of this case study for strategy and organization for innovation.
    Keywords: first-mover advantage, Samsung Electronics, DRAM
    JEL: O32 L63
    Date: 2010–01
  21. By: Gregory C. Chow (Princeton University)
    Abstract: In 1979 the United States and China established normal diplomatic relations, allowing me to visit China and study the Chinese economy. After doing so for thirty years since and advising the government of Taiwan in the 1960s and the 1970s and the government of the People’s Republic of China in the 1980s and the 1990s this is an opportune moment for me to summarize the important lessons that I have learned. The lessons will be summarized in four parts: on economic science, on formulating economic policy and providing economic advice, on the special characteristics of the Chinese economy and on the experience of China’s economic reform. At the beginning I should comment on the quality of Chinese official data on which almost all quantitative studies referred to in this article were based. Chow (2006(a)) has presented the view that by and large the official data are useful and fairly accurate. The main justification is that every time I tested an economic hypothesis or estimated an economic relation using the official data the result confirmed the well-established economic theory. It would be a miracle if I had the power to make the Chinese official statisticians fabricate data to support my hypotheses. Even if I had had the power, most of the data had already been published for years before I conceived the ideas of the studies reported in this article.
    Keywords: China, Chinese economy, Taiwan, economic reforms, data
    JEL: C01 E01 H00 N25 O53
    Date: 2009–12
  22. By: Peter C.B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
    Abstract: Two distinguished New Zealanders pioneered some of the foundations of modern econometrics. Alec Aitken, one of the most famous and well-documented mental arithmeticians of all time, contributed the matrix formulation and projection geometry of linear regression, generalized least squares (GLS) estimation, algorithms for Hodrick Prescott (HP) style data smoothing (six decades before their use in economics), and statistical estimation theory leading to the Cramér Rao bound. Rex Bergstrom constructed and estimated by limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) the largest empirical structural model in the early 1950s, opened up the field of exact distribution theory, developed cyclical growth models in economic theory, and spent nearly 40 years of his life developing the theory of continuous time econometric modeling and its empirical application. We provide an overview of their lives, discuss some of their accomplishments, and develop some new econometric theory that connects with their foundational work.
    Keywords: Aitken, Cramér Rao bound, HP filter, Minimum variance unbiased estimation, Projection, GLS; Bergstrom, Continuous time, Exact distribution, LIML, UK economy; Pioneers of econometrics
    JEL: B16 C00
    Date: 2010–01

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