New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2010‒01‒10
nineteen papers chosen by



  1. An anthropometric study of inequality and social segregation in a castilian city. Zamora, 1840-1936 By ricardo hernández garcía; javier vicente ventoso; javier moreno lázaro
  2. Public and Private Stances in Economic Policies general Historical Notes on Social Services and the Specific Case of Italy in the first half of the XX Century By Daniela Parisi;
  3. Catching-up and falling behind: knowledge spillover from American to German machine tool makers By Richter, Ralf; Streb, Jochen
  4. The case of the undying debt By François Velde
  5. Historical family systems and the great European divide: the invention of the Slavic East By Mikolaj Szoltysek; Barbara Zuber Goldstein
  6. Does Land Abundance Explain African Institutions? By James Fenske
  7. The economic performance of cartels: evidence from the New Deal U.S. sugar manufacturing cartel, 1934-74 By Benjamin Bridgman; Shi Qi; James A. Schmitz, Jr.
  8. Reinvigorating Springfield's economy: lessons from resurgent cities By Yolanda K. Kodrzycki; Ana Patricia Muñoz with Lynn Browne; DeAnna Green; Marques Benton; Prabal Chakrabarti; David Plasse; Richard Walker; Bo Zhao
  9. A Century of Bond Ratings as a Business By Ludovic Moreau
  10. Estimating Historical Energy Security Costs By Arnold, Steven; Markandya, Anil; Hunt, Alistair
  11. Did Children’s Education Matter? Family Migration as a Mechanism of Human Capital Investment. Evidence From Nineteenth Century Bohemia By Klein, Alexander
  12. The impact of Rosenwald Schools on Black achievement By Daniel Aaronson; Bhashkar Mazumder
  13. The Phillips curve and the Italian lira, 1861-1998 By Alessandra Del Boca; Michele Fratianni; Franco Spinelli; Carmine Trecroci
  14. Tariff liberatization and the growth of word trade: A comparative historiocal analysis to evaluate the multilateral trading system By Silvia Nenci
  15. Regulatory versus Informational Value of Bond Ratings: Hints from History ... By Ludovic Moreau
  16. Social change and family change in a Central European urban context: Rostock 1819-1867 By Mikolaj Szoltysek; Siegfried Gruber; Rembrandt D. Scholz; Barbara Zuber Goldstein
  17. Philippine International Labor Migration in the Past 30 Years: Trends and Prospects By Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C.; Abrigo, Michael Ralph M.
  18. "Human Capital Formation in Mitsubishi Zaibatsu in Prewar Japan: Analysis of Personal History Data" (in Japanese) By Tetsuji Okazaki
  19. Grain prices and mortality in Vienna, 1648-1754 By Julia Casutt; Ulrich Woitek

  1. By: ricardo hernández garcía (departamento de fundamentos del análisis económico e historia e instituciones económicas de la universidad de valladolid.); javier vicente ventoso (ies jorge santayana (ávila).); javier moreno lázaro (departamento de fundamentos del análisis económico e historia e instituciones económicas de la universidad de valladolid.)
    Abstract: this paper proposes several indicators for income distribution derived from the height of individuals. From the study of these indicators, we can conclude that the economic backwardness that zamora suffered led a further deterioration of living standards compared to other more economically advanced areas in the region, but less drastic changes in income distribution. Even so, anthropometric indicators show the strong bias and discrimination suffered by unskilled workers as well as the social segregation of the needy, who were isolated in the marginal areas of the city. (paper in Spanish)
    Keywords: Living standards, Income distribution, Anthropometry, Urban history, Castille, Zamora
    JEL: N30 N33 N90 N93 O15
    Date: 2009–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:0910&r=his
  2. By: Daniela Parisi (DISCE, Università Cattolica di Milano);
    Abstract: During the first half of the XX century, both in Europe and North America, a profound dissatisfaction with the numerous different social insurance, unemployment, health and old age insurance systems began to make itself felt. The essay deals with the attitudes of the Western world, and in particular with the Italian one. As regards the United States, debate has spread since the second half of the XIX century on the so-called welfare work, and on welfare capitalism. In Europe social security systems began with their establishment by Bismarck’s German government. In the second half of the 19th century the role played by local administrations augmented in several countries. Unfair distribution was considered to be the condition of the system that made it impossible to abolish need. In Italy assistance indicates a vast system of coordinated activities aimed at reforms that may contextualize arising social questions and define policies to solve them. The Italian regime basically followed the German model of welfare state, implementing social insurance in order to integrate and control the country. The solutions sprang from philanthropy and religious motivations, and also from the fear of the poor as potential criminals or rebels. After World War I legislation was issued predominantly on assistance to the disabled and on accident insurance. In the interwar period the solutions were strictly linked to the corporativistic-authoritarian formulation of the Fascist political system. In the immediate post-second WW period politicians and economists were inspired by the principle of universal social security and public services, and favoured interdependence among people in society.
    Keywords: History of political economy; History of economic policy; Social services; William Beveridge; Francesco Vito.
    JEL: B2 B3
    Date: 2009–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie6:itemq0956&r=his
  3. By: Richter, Ralf; Streb, Jochen
    Abstract: In our days, German machine tool makers accuse their Chinese competitors of violating patent rights and illegally imitating German technology. A century ago, however, German machine tool makers used exactly the same methods to imitate American technology. To understand the dynamics of this catching-up process we use patent statistics to analyze firms' activities between 1877 and 1932. We show that German machine tool makers successfully deployed imitating and counterfeiting activities in the late 19th century and the 1920s to catchup to their American competitors. The German administration supported this strategy by stipulating a patent law that discriminated against foreign patent holders and probably also by delaying the granting of patents to foreign applicants. Parallel to the growing international competitiveness of German firms, however, the willingness to guarantee intellectual property rights of foreigners was also increasing because German firms had now to fear retaliatory measures in their own export markets when violating foreign property rights within Germany. --
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fziddp:200909&r=his
  4. By: François Velde
    Abstract: The French government currently honors a very unusual debt contract: an annuity that was issued in 1738 and currently yields €1.20 per year. I tell the story of this unique debt, which serves as an anecdotal but symbolic summary of French public finances since the 18th century.
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-09-12&r=his
  5. By: Mikolaj Szoltysek (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Barbara Zuber Goldstein (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: In 1940, almost two years into World War II, the book, “Agrarverfassung und Bevölkerung in Litauen und Weißrussland”(Agrarian constitution and population in Lithuania and Belarus), was published. The habilitation thesis of the young German historian Werner Conze, the book was an extensive study of premodern family patterns of the peasant serf population in Lithuania from the 16th to the 18th centuries. In an approach that was innovative for its time, Conze used a type of historical source which, up to that point, had not yet received a lot of interest, namely, quantitative data derived from original inventory lists of historic estates. The analysis of the data led Conze to detect a difference between West and East. The comparison emphasised the cultural divide between the Germans and the Slavs to the East by postulating smaller family sizes throughout the western or German-influenced part of historic Lithuania, and larger families with more complex structures throughout the Slavic parts of the country. Thus, Conze also suggested that population growth in the Lithuanian west had been restrained, while the Lithuanian east had experienced abundant population growth. Conze’s scientific insights remain present in today’s historical-demographic literature, and have become an essential building block of any argument in support of the validity and persistence of East-West differentials in family systems in East-Central Europe. Because of this study’s continued importance, it may prove useful to re-examine “Agrarverfassung und Bevölkerung,” looking at its auctorial and ideological context, its methodological procedures, and its empirical content. Our critical assessment of some of Conze’s basic assumptions reveals serious shortcomings in his analysis, which resulted from his tendency to make unwarranted inferences from non-representative and circumstantial evidence, and from his underlying motivation to search for German-Slavic differences. We will discuss the extent to which the pervading notion of the East-West divide in historical East-Central Europe must be revised in response to these shortcomings. By uncovering the inadequacies of Conze’s contribution, we hope to pave the way for a truly scientific understanding of familial characteristics of Eastern Europe, and to end the perpetuation of certain stereotypes of Slavic populations.
    Keywords: Belarus, Germany, Lithuania, demographers, family forms, historical demography
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2009–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-041&r=his
  6. By: James Fenske (Department of Economics, Yale University)
    Abstract: I show how abundant land and scarce labor shaped African institutions before colonial rule. I present a model in which exogenous suitability of the land for agriculture and endogenously evolving population determine the existence of land rights, slavery, and polygyny. I then use cross-sectional data on pre-colonial African societies to demonstrate that, consistent with the model, the existence of land rights, slavery, and polygyny occurred in those parts of Africa that were the most suitable for agriculture, and in which population density was greatest. Next, I use the model to explain institutions among the Egba of southwestern Nigeria from 1830 to 1914. While many Egba institutions were typical of a land-abundant environment, they sold land and had disputes over it. These exceptions were the result of a period of land scarcity when the Egba first arrived at Abeokuta and of heterogeneity in the quality of land.
    Keywords: Africa, institutions, land rights, slavery, polygyny
    JEL: N57 O10
    Date: 2009–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egc:wpaper:981&r=his
  7. By: Benjamin Bridgman; Shi Qi; James A. Schmitz, Jr.
    Abstract: We study the U.S. sugar manufacturing cartel that was created during the New Deal. This was a legal-cartel that lasted 40 years (1934-74). As a legal-cartel, the industry was assured widespread adherence to domestic and import sales quotas (given it had access to government enforcement powers). But it also meant accepting government-sponsored cartel-provisions. These provisions significantly distorted production at each factory and also where the industry was located. These distortions were reflected in, for example, a declining industry recovery rate, that is, the pounds of white sugar produced per ton of beets. It declined from about 310 pounds in 1934 to 240 pounds in 1974. The cartel provisions also distorted the location of industry. For example, it kept production in California and the Far West. Since the cartel ended in 1974, California's share of sugar production has dropped dramatically.
    Keywords: Cartels ; Productivity ; Competition
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:437&r=his
  8. By: Yolanda K. Kodrzycki; Ana Patricia Muñoz with Lynn Browne; DeAnna Green; Marques Benton; Prabal Chakrabarti; David Plasse; Richard Walker; Bo Zhao
    Abstract: As part of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's commitment to supporting efforts to revitalize the economy of Springfield, Massachusetts, this paper analyzes the economic development approaches of other mid-sized manufacturing-oriented cities during the past half century. From among a comparison group of 25 municipalities that were similar to Springfield in 1960, the study identifies 10 "resurgent cities" that have made substantial progress in improving living standards for their residents, and that are recognized as vital communities in a broader sense by experts on urban economic development and policy. These case studies suggest that industry mix, demographic composition, and geographic position are not the key factors distinguishing the resurgent cities from Springfield. Instead, the most important lessons from the resurgent cities concern leadership and collaboration. Initial leadership in these cities came from a variety of key institutions and individuals. In some cases, the turnaround started with efforts on the part of the public sector, while in other cases nongovernmental institutions or private developers were at the forefront. Regardless of who initiated the turnaround, economic redevelopment efforts spanned decades and involved collaborations among numerous organizations and sectors.
    Keywords: Cities and towns ; Cities and towns - Massachusetts ; Economic policy - Massachusetts
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbpp:09-6&r=his
  9. By: Ludovic Moreau
    Abstract: Historical accounting datasets about a leader of the bond rating industry have been gathered in order to provide an unprecedented long term view on this business. To better judge of the dynamics at play, similar data for representatives of older and broader business fields is also introduced. Overall, this empirical discussion plays down the importance of regulatory « licenses » given to bond rating firms and puts forward the coming of a « modern » business model where issuers pay for ratings.
    Keywords: Industry study, bond ratings, financial regulation
    JEL: L84 G18 G24
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2009-47&r=his
  10. By: Arnold, Steven; Markandya, Anil; Hunt, Alistair
    Abstract: Energy Security is of increasing importance in today’s world, yet little research has been carried out on the costs or benefits of energy security policies. This paper looks at the period after the 1970s to estimate the cost premium of electricity generation due to energy security policies. The cost premium is estimated for France, Germany, Italy and Spain for the period 1980-2000 by estimating actual versus hypothetical lowest cost generation mixes. The cost premium is estimated to be lowest for France, which had a clear energy security policy based around developing nuclear power and reducing reliance on oil and coal.
    Keywords: Energy security; electric energy; historic cost estimation
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eid:wpaper:13/09&r=his
  11. By: Klein, Alexander (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the rural-urban migration of families in the Bohemian region of Pilsen in 1900. Using a new 1300-family dataset from the 1900 population census I examine the role of children‘s education in rural-urban migration. I find that families migrated to the city such that the educational attainment of their children would be maximized and that there is a positive correlation between family migration and children being apprentices in urban areas. The results suggest that rural-urban migration was powered not only by the exploitation of rural-urban wage gaps but also by aspirations to engage in human capital investment.
    Keywords: migration ; human capital investment ; family decision-making
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:923&r=his
  12. By: Daniel Aaronson; Bhashkar Mazumder
    Abstract: The Black-White gap in completed schooling among Southern born men narrowed sharply between the World Wars after being stagnant from 1880 to 1910. We examine a large scale school construction project, the Rosenwald Rural Schools Initiative, which was designed to dramatically improve the educational opportunities for Southern rural Blacks. From 1914 to 1931, nearly 5,000 school buildings were constructed, serving approximately 36 percent of the Black rural school-aged Southern population. We use historical Census data and World War II enlistment records to analyze the effects of the program on school attendance, literacy, high school completion, years of schooling, earnings, hourly wages, and migration. We find that the Rosenwald program accounts for at least 30 percent of the sizable educational gains of Blacks during the 1910s and 1920s. We also use data from the Army General Classification Test (AGCT), a precursor to the AFQT, and find that access to Rosenwald schools increased average Black scores by about 0.25 standard deviations adding to the existing literature showing that interventions can reduce the racial gap in cognitive skill. In the longer run, exposure to the schools raised the wages of blacks that remained in the South relative to Southern whites by about 35 percent. For blacks the private rate of return to a year of additional schooling induced by Rosenwald was about 18 percent. Moreover, Rosenwald significantly increased Northern migration of young adult Blacks, with no corresponding impact on schoolage Blacks or young adult Whites, likely fueling further income gains. Across all outcomes, the improvements were highest in counties with the lowest levels of Black school attendance suggesting that schooling treatments can have a very large impact among those at the bottom of the skill distribution.
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-09-26&r=his
  13. By: Alessandra Del Boca; Michele Fratianni; Franco Spinelli; Carmine Trecroci
    Abstract: We examine Italian inflation rates and the Phillips curve with a very long-run perspective, one that covers the entire existence of the Italian lira from political unification (1861) to Italy’s entry in the European Monetary Union (end of 1998). We first study the volatility, persistence and stationarity of the Italian inflation rate over the long run and across various exchange-rate regimes that have shaped Italian monetary history. Next, we estimate alternative Phillips equations and investigate whether nonlinearities, asymmetries and structural changes characterize the inflation-output trade-off in the long run. We capture the effects of structural changes and asymmetries on the estimated parameters of the inflation-output trade-off, relying partly on sub-sample estimates and partly on time-varying parameters estimated via the Kalman filter. Finally, we investigate causal relationships between inflation rates and output and extend the analysis to include the US and the UK for comparison purposes. The inference is that Italy has experienced a conventional inflation-output trade-off only during times of low inflation and stable aggregate supply.
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubs:wpaper:0908&r=his
  14. By: Silvia Nenci
    Abstract: The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between tariff barriers and world trade growth from a comparative and historical perspective, and –to derive some useful indications for evaluating the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system for promoting world trade. The novelty of this work is the complex reconstruction of a historical tariffs and trade series for the period 1870-2000, for 23 countries; this constitutes a good proxy for world trade (accounting for over 60%) in this period. The effect of tariff liberalization on trade growth is analysed empirically using panel data and time series. The empirical results, whilst confirming the existence of a world level long-term relationship between tariff reductions and trade growth, demonstrate how this substantial and significant relationship pre World War II gradually diminished in importance and significance after 1950. This result does not conflict with the key role of the GATT/WTO system in the trade liberalization process; however, it underlines the importance of a formalized multilateral trading system, not so much for tariff liberalization, but for building a virtuous process of international coordination of trade policies and ensuring fuller participation in world trade.
    Keywords: World Trade, Multilateral Trading System, GATT/WTO, Historical Series, ECM
    JEL: C22 F13 F15 N70
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0110&r=his
  15. By: Ludovic Moreau
    Abstract: A multivariate analysis can be used in order to investigate the relationship between bond yields, ratings and standard control variables. Replicating such a test on a number of cross-sections may evidence a possible impact of financial regulations relying on ratings. Datasets for American corporate bond issues allow a focus on two key events of the development of rating driven regulations: the valuation of bank and life insurance portfolios introduced in the 1930’s and the net capital requirements for broker dealers introduced in the 1970’s. The “value” of bond ratings does show some improvement once these regulations have been passed.
    Keywords: Bond ratings, bond yields, financial regulation.
    JEL: G12 G18 G24
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2009-41&r=his
  16. By: Mikolaj Szoltysek (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Siegfried Gruber (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Rembrandt D. Scholz (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Barbara Zuber Goldstein (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: This study is informed by competing perspectives on family behaviour in periods of turbulent social change, and intends to provide some fresh insights into the effect of macro-level changes on micro-level processes involving the family. In this pilot study, we take our first step towards analysing the impact of developing urban-industrial life on the family system in the northern German city of Rostock. A variety of quantitative approaches are employed to capture long-term changes in household structure and composition, household formation rules and patterns of leaving home in this historic Hanseatic community in two census years, 1819 and 1867. Overall, we can observe rather stable patterns for both the 1819 and 1867 censuses, with only small shifts away from more “traditional” towards more “modern” patterns of the family. Interestingly, the persistence of the family pattern in Rostock rested primarily on the continuity of nuclear family-centred patterns of co-residence. We were neither able to find evidence of a significant deterioration in the traditional pattern of the extended-family household, nor could we prove that a progressive nuclearisation of the family in Rostock took place between 1819 and 1867.
    Keywords: German Empire, family demography, historical demography, urban population
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2009–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2009-039&r=his
  17. By: Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C.; Abrigo, Michael Ralph M.
    Abstract: The paper characterizes how international labor migration became an enduring feature in the country’s development. It presents data on the flow of temporary and permanent international migrant workers in the last thirty years. Characteristics such as destination, occupation, education, sex, and age are presented. Using historical movements and motivations, the study then presented the likely prospects of the Philippine international labor migration market considering domestic and the global labor market developments. Long-term and short-term prospects were discussed and economic, demographic, political, and environmental factors were considered as factors affecting the future flow of international migrant workers.
    Keywords: Philippines, international labor migration
    Date: 2009
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2009-33&r=his
  18. By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the effects of schooling, outside work experience and job tenure on human capital formation, using the personal history data of white collar employees of Mitsubishi Zaibatsu in prewar Japan. For all samples including both engineers and clerks, the rate of return to schooling was 4.19%, which was higher than those to outside work experience and tenure. In case we allow for difference in the effects of schooling, outside work experience and job tenure between engineers and clerks, the rate of return to schooling was 5.11% for engineers, while it was 2.61% for clerks. It is notable that for clerks the rate of return to schooling was lower than that to job tenure. These results imply that Mitsubishi differentiated the systems of human capital formation between engineers and clerks. That is, while schooling was the central measure for human capital formation for engineers, on-the-job-training inside the firm was that for clerks.
    Date: 2009–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:jseres:2009cj216&r=his
  19. By: Julia Casutt; Ulrich Woitek
    Abstract: Class specific mortality in 17th and 18th Century Vienna shows a cyclical pattern which is related to grain price cycles in the 5-10 years range. This relationship is not stable over time. Applying spectral analysis based on time-varying VARs, it can be shown that at the beginning of the observation period, comovement of grain prices and mortality is considerably high in areas populated by lower classes of society. This comovement cannot be found in richer areas of the city and vanishes over time for the entire population of the city.
    Keywords: Grain prices, mortality, Vienna, spectral analysis
    JEL: N33 N53 N93 C32
    Date: 2009–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:iewwpx:461&r=his

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