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on Business, Economic and Financial History |
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Issue of 2009‒05‒30
twelve papers chosen by |
| By: | Jeffrey G. Williamson |
| Abstract: | Most analysts of the modern Latin American economy hold to a pessimistic belief in historical persistence -- they believe that Latin America has always had very high levels of inequality, suggesting it will be hard for modern social policy to create a more egalitarian society. This paper argues that this conclusion is not supported by what little evidence we have. The persistence view is based on an historical literature which has made little or no effort to be comparative. Modern analysts see a more unequal Latin America compared with Asia and the rich post-industrial nations and then assume that this must always have been true. Indeed, some have argued that high inequality appeared very early in the post-conquest Americas, and that this fact supported rent-seeking and anti-growth institutions which help explain the disappointing growth performance we observe there even today. This paper argues to the contrary. Compared with the rest of the world, inequality was not high in pre-conquest 1491, nor was it high in the postconquest decades following 1492. Indeed, it was not even high in the mid-19th century just prior Latin America’s belle époque. It only became high thereafter. Historical persistence in Latin American inequality is a myth. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, development, Latin America |
| JEL: | N16 N36 O15 D3 |
| Date: | 2009–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:cegedp:81&r=his |
| By: | Solar, Peter M; Lyons, John S |
| Abstract: | We investigate the early development of English cotton spinning by analyzing about 700 bankruptcies and 1300 dissolutions of partnership reported in the London Gazette, 1770–1840. The data show two temporal cycles, peaking in the early to mid-1800s and in the later 1820s, near the ends of investment booms. Both earlier peaks were absolutely higher than the later, despite industry growth. Over time both bankruptcies and dissolutions show the concentration of spinning in greater Lancashire, and within greater Lancashire in the surrounding towns rather than in Manchester. The industry was dominated by single proprietors or firms with only two partners and integration with weaving was steadily increasing. The paper demonstrates the potential of the Gazette, now searchable online, as a source for business and industrial history. |
| Keywords: | English industry; cotton spinning; bankruptcy; partnership dissolution; industrial revolution; spatial distribution of firms; vertical integration |
| JEL: | N63 N9 N6 N93 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:15422&r=his |
| By: | Holland, David; Lewin, Paul; Sorte, Bruce; Weber, Bruce |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea09:49614&r=his |
| By: | Stelios Michalopoulos |
| Abstract: | This research examines the economic origins of ethnolinguistic diversity. The empirical analysis constructs detailed data on the distribution of land quality and elevation across contiguous regions, virtual and real countries, and shows that variation in elevation and land quality has contributed significantly to the emergence and persistence of ethnic fractionalization. The empirical and historical evidence is consistent with the proposed hypothesis, according to which heterogeneous land endowments generated region specific human capital, limiting population mobility and leading to the formation of localized ethnicities and languages. The research contributes to the understanding of the emergence of ethnicities and their spatial distribution and offers a distinction between the natural, geographically driven, versus the artificial, man-made, components of contemporary ethnic diversity. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic Diversity, Geography, Technological Progress, Human Capital, Colonization |
| JEL: | O11 O12 O15 O33 O40 J20 J24 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:110&r=his |
| By: | Oded Galor; Stelios Michalopoulos |
| Abstract: | This research suggests that the evolution of entrepreneurial spirit played a significant role in the process of economic development and the dynamics of inequality within and across societies. The study argues that entrepreneurial spirit evolved non-monotonically in the course of human history. In early stages of development, the rise in income generated an evolutionary advantage to entrepreneurial, growth promoting traits and their increased representation accelerated the pace of technological progress and the process of economic development. Natural selection therefore had magnified growth promoting activities in relatively wealthier economies as well as within the upper segments of societies, enlarging the income gap within as well as across societies. In mature stages of development, however, non-entrepreneurial individuals gained an evolutionary advantage, diminishing the growth potential of advanced economies and contributing to the convergence of the intermediate level economies to the advanced ones. |
| Keywords: | Elasticity of Substitution, Growth, Technological Progress, Evolution, Natural Selection |
| JEL: | O11 O14 O33 O40 J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:111&r=his |
| By: | Juan Carlos Echeverry |
| Abstract: | Colombia is an interesting case study within emerging countries. Through 150 years of democratic tradition and seven decades of sound fiscal and monetary policies, the country has displayed institutional strength and economic growth, in spite of strong external shocks, rent- seeking by sectoral business confederations, and, recently, narco-traffickers and guerrillas. Reforms made during the nineties, just as in other Latin American nations, did not result in the expected take-off in growth. In Colombia, the reason lies partly in the consequences of discovering considerable oil reserves, the escalation of the internal conflict, the fiscal consequences of the 1991 Constitution and huge fiscal commitments related to pensions and social expenditure. In the current decade Colombia has made vast progress in invigorating the sources of economic growth, improving welfare of the poorest strata of population and reinstating the rule of law across the country. The current international crisis poses a considerable challenge in terms of growth and threatens social advancement achieved so far. |
| Date: | 2009–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:005541&r=his |
| By: | John Y. Campbell; Robert J. Shiller; Luis M. Viceira |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the history of inflation-indexed bond markets in the US and the UK. It documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990's until 2008, followed by a sudden spike in these rates during the financial crisis of 2008. Breakeven inflation rates, calculated from inflation- indexed and nominal government bond yields, stabilized until the fall of 2008, when they showed dramatic declines. The paper asks to what extent short-term real interest rates, bond risks, and liquidity explain the trends before 2008 and the unusual developments in the fall of 2008. Low inflation-indexed yields and high short-term volatility of inflation-indexed bond returns do not invalidate the basic case for these bonds, that they provide a safe asset for long-term investors. Governments should expect inflation-indexed bonds to be a relatively cheap form of debt financing going forward, even though they have offered high returns over the past decade. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15014&r=his |
| By: | Steven D. Levitt; John A. List |
| Abstract: | The “Hawthorne effect,†a concept familiar to all students of social science, has had a profound influence both on the direction and design of research over the past 75 years. The Hawthorne effect is named after a landmark set of studies conducted at the Hawthorne plant in the 1920s. The first and most influential of these studies is known as the “Illumination Experiment.†Both academics and popular writers commonly summarize the results as showing that every change in light, even those that made the room dimmer, had the effect of increasing productivity. The data from the illumination experiments, however, were never formally analyzed and were thought to have been destroyed. Our research has uncovered these data. We find that existing descriptions of supposedly remarkable data patterns prove to be entirely fictional. There are, however, hints of more subtle manifestations of a Hawthorne effect in the original data. |
| JEL: | A0 C91 C92 C93 L22 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15016&r=his |
| By: | John Y. Campbell (Dept. of Economics, Harvard University); Robert J. Shiller (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Luis M. Viceira (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the history of inflation-indexed bond markets in the US and the UK. It documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990's until 2008, followed by a sudden spike in these rates during the financial crisis of 2008. Breakeven inflation rates, calculated from inflation-indexed and nominal government bond yields, stabilized until the fall of 2008, when they showed dramatic declines. The paper asks to what extent short-term real interest rates, bond risks, and liquidity explain the trends before 2008 and the unusual developments in the fall of 2008. Low inflation-indexed yields and high short-term volatility of inflation-indexed bond returns do not invalidate the basic case for these bonds, that they provide a safe asset for long-term investors. Governments should expect inflation-indexed bonds to be a relatively cheap form of debt financing going forward, even though they have offered high returns over the past decade. |
| Keywords: | Expectations hypothesis, Liquidity, Term premia, TIPS |
| JEL: | E43 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1696&r=his |
| By: | Sushil J Aaron |
| Abstract: | India’s foreign policy has had an anomalous quality since the time Jawaharlal Nehru resolutely attempted to steer clear of Cold War alliances. This continues to be so given India’s unique situation of establishing “strategic relations” with both Israel and Iran, as part of its Greater Middle East policy. A study of this paradox assumes significance for various reasons. One, it offers a glimpse into the way India is reordering its foreign policy in the post Cold War, as part of its clamour for Great Power status, thus presenting a westward complement to its familiar ‘Look East policy’ which seeks to engage regions beyond South Asia. It also provides a view of the complexities involved in endorsing the American agenda in a geopolitical neighbourhood, transformed by the September 11 attacks, and yet, one that affects India’s security because of its energy reserves and Islamist ferment. To this end, this study analyses India’s foreign policy toward the Middle East and Central Asia since the late 1990s, with a specific focus on its relations with Israel, Iran and Iraq that reviews the way it reconciles immediate security needs with competing realities of economic interdependence and political sensitivities. The paper also evaluates the challenges India faces in strengthening links with Afghanistan and Central Asia.[CSH OP NO 7] |
| Keywords: | India; Middle East; Post Cold War; INDIA-ISRAEL RELATIONS; Defense Ties; Security cooperation; Arab response; Pro-Israel American Jewish Organizations; Congress Party; Israel-Turkey relations; IRAN; The Delhi and Teheran Declarations; Mishra’s AJC speech; North South Trade Corridor; Elusive Pipeline Project; Pakistan; India and Gulf War II; Domestic uproar; AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIA; Afghan Policy; India in Central Asia; Taxonomy |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:1970&r=his |
| By: | Hugo Eduardo da Gama Cerqueira (Cedeplar-UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This article presents an outline of the biography of David Riazanov. The article discusses Riazanov’s participation in the political and intellectual life of Russia, and his role in the discovery and the publication of the literary legacy of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, which culminated in the first attempt to edit the Marx Engels Gesamtausgabe (MEGA). |
| Keywords: | David (Borisovich Goldendach) Riazanov; Karl Marx; Friedrich Engels; MEGA |
| JEL: | B31 B24 A31 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td352&r=his |
| By: | Alain Béraud (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS : UMR8184 - Université de Cergy Pontoise) |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie la crise qui, en 1825, tacha l'économie anglaise et les travaux que John Stuart Mill, Thomas Tooke et John Ramsay McCulloch consacrèrent à son analyse. Alors que McCulloch s'appuyait, pour comprendre, la crise sur la tradition ricardienne, Mill et Tooke s'en écartent et sans doute celui-là plus que celui-ci. McCulloch et Tooke soutiennent que l'organisation du système bancaire anglais a joué, sinon dans l'origine du moins dans le développement de la crise, un rôle remarquable. Mill, au contraire, pense que la crise est l'effet de spéculations hasardeuses et qu'elle se serait tout aussi bien développée dans un système où la monnaie aurait consisté en espèces. Il avance des idées qui seront reprises et développées par la Banking School. |
| Keywords: | Mill, Tooke, McCulloch, crise, spéculation, overtrading, Banking School |
| Date: | 2009–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00387078_v1&r=his |