nep-his New Economics Papers
on Business, Economic and Financial History
Issue of 2007‒09‒02
twenty papers chosen by
Bernardo Batiz-Lazo
University of Leicester

  1. (Re)Construction Site of German Historical National Accounts: Machine Building: A New Benchmark before World War I By Fremdling, Rainer
  2. (Re)Construction Site of German Historical National Accounts: German Industrial Employment 1925, 1933, 1936 and 1939: A New Benchmark for 1936 and a Note on Hoffmann's Tales By Fremdling, Rainer
  3. A reappraisal of accounting changes in Dutch local government By Bogt, Henk ter
  4. Family Background and Income during the Rise of the Welfare State: Brother Correlations in Income for Swedish Men Born 1932-1968 By Anders Björklund; Markus Jäntti; Matthew J. Lindquist
  5. CAPITAL MARKET INTEGRATION IN JAPAN By Kris James Mitchener; nd Mari Ohnuki
  6. Censuses compared. A New Benchmark for British and German Manufacturing 1935/1936 By Fremdling, Rainer; de Jong, Herman; Timmer, Marcel P.
  7. Cycles of violence, and terrorist attacks index for the State of Ohio By Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo
  8. The End of Comparative Law By Mathias M. Siems
  9. Book Review to Luigino Bruni -'Reciprocita'- Economic Thought and Reciprocity Theories By Reggiani, Tommaso
  10. Uncovering the American Dream: Inequality and Mobility in Social Security Earnings Data since 1937 By Wojciech Kopczuk; Emmanuel Saez; Jae Song
  11. The Wrong Side(s) of the Tracks Estimating the Causal Effects of Racial Segregation on City Outcomes By Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat
  12. Persona o circunstancia, preseidente o ministro, en la política económica argentina, 1957-2007 By Juan Carlos de Pablo
  13. Identifying aggregate supply and demand shocks in South Africa By Stan du Plessis; Ben Smit; Federico Sturzenegger
  14. Democratic Nature of Urban Development in Groningen in the 1980s - PTT, Brink, Casino and Museum By Shinji Tsubohara
  15. The effect and modification of the Traffic Circulation Plan (VCP) - traffic plannign in Groningen in the 1980s By Shinji Tsubohara
  16. Cocaine Production and Trafficking: What do we know? By Daniel Mejía; Carlos Esteban Posada
  17. China's Experience Under the Multifiber Arrangement (MFA) and the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) By Irene Brambilla; Amit Khandelwal; Peter Schott
  18. El crecimiento económico internacional en la segunda mitad del siglo XX: ¿qué factores lo determinaron? By Carlos Esteban Posada; Eliana Carolina Rubiano
  19. The Making of a Latin American Global Economist By David Colander; Hugo Nopo Key Words: Latin American economics, global economics, political economy, graduate training, Latin America, applied economics
  20. "Reforma cultural, iglesia Católica y Estado durante la república liberal" By Silva Olarte, Renán José

  1. By: Fremdling, Rainer (Groningen University)
    Abstract: The figure most commonly used as benchmark for the output of machinery before WW I is based on an estimate by the Association of German Machinery Producers (VDMA). It estimated that all German firms together had sold machines worth 2,800 million Marks in 1913. Using a recently detected detailed report, filed in the Federal Archives in Berlin-Lichterfelde, on the internal statistics of VDMA results in alternative figures for the benchmark year 1913. Besides the original figure of VDMA two different new benchmark figures are presented here, namely 2,700 m. M (VDMA modified) and 2,600 m. M (according to Rech). The two new benchmark figures for 1913, in combination with a new production index, yield two time series for German machinery output between 1909 and 1918.
    Date: 2007
  2. By: Fremdling, Rainer (Groningen University)
    Abstract: The industrial census of 1936 did not include all industrial firms; for certain industrial groups data of small firms were not recorded. This article describes the estimation of employment (4 million) which has to be added to the recorded number of 8 million employees. The estimated figure is confronted with the figures of the workplace censuses of 1925, 1933 and 1939 on the one hand and with the compilation by Hoffmann on the other hand. Whereas the estimate is in line with the workplace censuses it deviates significantly from Hoffmann´s numbers. Scrutinising them reveals serious distortions in their level, trend and yearly fluctuations. By implication, this objection does not only hold for the employment figures but for time series on production and levels of labour productivity as well. Consequently, one should keep away from Hoffmann´s figures when discussing any aspect of economic failure of the Weimar Republic or economic recovery after Hitler came to power.
    Date: 2007
  3. By: Bogt, Henk ter (Groningen University)
    Abstract: Abstract Municipalities and provinces in the Netherlands, denoted here as local government, have introduced many major accounting changes and changes in other management control aspects since 1985. However, various change initiatives and new instruments were dropped after a short while, were superseded by new reforms, or only used to a limited extent. Interviews with 23 politicians and professional managers in local government made clear that they often were critical about the reasons for and the effects of the changes. For example, fads, a desire to ?look modern? and mimicry sometimes played a part in the introduction of the changes. Previous academic research suggests that in several cases the high ambitions of New Public Management have not been realized. However, this explorative paper does not primarily discuss the gap between expected and realized management changes. Instead, it focuses on the actual effects resulting from the accounting changes in the perception of the persons interviewed. The institutionalist approach that is used in this paper focuses on changes in rules, routines and institutions. The institutionalist approach of the accounting changes in Dutch local government suggests that, seen over the longer run, gradually some effects may have been realized that have considerably changed their culture and increased their citizen and result-orientedness. Further, the explorative paper indicates that an institutionalist perspective draws attention to factors and developments that might not be noticed when a more functional and short-term perspective is chosen
    Date: 2007
  4. By: Anders Björklund (SOFI, Stockholm University and IZA); Markus Jäntti (Abo Akademi University); Matthew J. Lindquist (Stockholm University)
    Abstract: The goal of this study is to examine trends in the importance of family background in determining adult income in Sweden. We investigate whether the association between family background and income in Sweden has changed for cohorts born 1932-1968. Our main finding is that the share of the variance in long-run income that is attributable to family background, the so-called brother correlation in income, has fallen by some 11 percentage points from 0.34 for the cohorts of brothers born in the early 1930s to below 0.23 for the cohorts born around 1950. From then on, the correlations have been more or less stable and are in line with earlier estimates. When we adjust income for the income return to years of schooling, we find constant brother correlations in income. The main effect is coming from changes in the distribution of schooling across cohorts. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that education policies have been a key factor in equalizing life chances in Sweden.
    Keywords: sibling correlation, intergenerational mobility, family background
    JEL: D1 D3 J62
    Date: 2007–08
  5. By: Kris James Mitchener (Assistant Department of Economics, Santa Clara University (; nd Mari Ohnuki (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail:
    Abstract: We construct new quarterly estimates of lending rates for 47 Japanese prefectures for the period 1886-1922, and test the extent to which regional capital markets integrated during this period. We analyze whether the capital market was efficient, estimate the speed of convergence among the rates, and assess the degree to which different regions were integrated with the main financial centers of Japan. Interest-rate differentials between the financial centers of Japan and other regions do not follow a random walk, and hence are suggestive of market efficiency ? in the sense that arbitrage opportunities did not persist. Results from cointegration tests suggest that the integration in Japan is characterized by multiple stochastic elements. We find the existence of four long-run cointegrating relationships. We also find evidence that shocks occurring in a financial center, such as the Kanto region, were transmitted to outlying regions and had permanent, but small effects on their rates.
    Keywords: Financial Market Development, Capital Market Integration, Economic Integration, Japanese Banks
    JEL: F21 G21 N25 O16
    Date: 2007–08
  6. By: Fremdling, Rainer; de Jong, Herman; Timmer, Marcel P. (Groningen University)
    Abstract: We present a new estimate of Anglo-German manufacturing output and productivity levels by industry for 1935/36. It is based on newly explored archival data on German manufacturing together with published British census data. We calculate comparative levels of value added, correcting for differences in prices for outputs and inputs. This so-called double deflation procedure provides new insights into productivity comparisons because output- and input price structures differed greatly between the two countries. Although the new calculations confirm existing results at an aggregate level, they reveal important differences at the industry level and show how Germany was striving for autarky as it prepared its economy for war.
    Date: 2007
  7. By: Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo
    Abstract: I apply the Beveridge-Nelson business cycle decomposition method to the time series of per capita murder in the State of Ohio. (1933-2005). Separating out “permanent” from “cyclical” murder, I hypothesize that the cyclical part coincides with documented waves of organized crime, internal tensions, crime legislation, social, and political unrest, and recently with the periodic terrorist attacks to the U.S. The estimated cyclical component of murder warns that terrorist attacks against the U.S. have affected Ohio creating estimated turning point dates marked by the most tragic terrorist attacks to the nation: the World Trade Center Bombing in 1993, and 9/11 2001. This paper belongs to the series of papers helping the U.S identify the closeness of terrorist attacks, and constructs the attacks index for Ohio. Other indices constructed include the Index for the U.S., New York State, New York City, Arizona State, Massachusetts State, California Washington, and Arkansas. These indices must be used as dependent variables in structural models for terrorist attacks and in models assessing the effects of terrorism over the U.S. economy.
    Keywords: A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia; 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; the econometrics of violence; terrorism; and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019; decomposing violence: terrorist murder in the twentieth in the United States; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; decomposing violence: terrorist murder and attacks in New York State from 1933 to 2005; terrorist murder; cycles of violence; and terrorist attacks in New York City during the last two centuries.
    JEL: K14 O51 D74 N42 C22 K42 H56
    Date: 2006–02–07
  8. By: Mathias M. Siems
    Abstract: Following the 1900 congress in Paris, the beginning of the 20th century saw comparative law emerge as a significant discipline. This paper suggests that the early 21st century is seeing the decline, or maybe even the 'end', of comparative law. In contrast to other claims which see the 21st century as the 'era of comparative law', there are at least four trends which give rise to pessimism: 'the disregard', 'the complexity', 'the simplicity', and 'the irrelevance' of comparative law. These phenomena will be explained in the body of this paper; the concluding part considers suggestions as to how to proceed further.
    Keywords: Comparative law, numerical comparative law, legal culture, law and finance, World Bank, harmonisation, convergence, governance.
    JEL: K00 K20 N20 N40 P51
    Date: 2007–03
  9. By: Reggiani, Tommaso
    Abstract: "Written with the attempt to tell credible history and possible scenes, in order to anticipate still latent tendencies, or in order to imagine communities and societies more civil, richer than reciprocity, in all its shapes. " (p. xv). From this ambitious premised the author of the issue takes the movements and it invites to us to explore one region of social sciences, until today, inadequately explored: the dimension of the reciprocity between the economic and social agents. - This book review, focused on a historical perspective, describes the debate developed by the history of economic thought regarding theories of reciprocity. -
    Keywords: reciprocity; Luigino Bruni; game theory; cooperation; civil society ; civil economy
    JEL: C70 A12 D70 B21 A13
    Date: 2007–01–01
  10. By: Wojciech Kopczuk; Emmanuel Saez; Jae Song
    Abstract: This paper uses Social Security Administration longitudinal earnings micro data since 1937 to analyze the evolution of inequality and mobility in the United States. Earnings inequality follows a U-shape pattern, decreasing sharply up to 1953 and increasing steadily afterwards. We find that short-term and long-term (rank based) mobility among all workers has been quite stable since 1950 (after a temporary surge during World War II). Therefore, the pattern of annual earnings inequality is very close to the pattern of inequality of longer term earnings. Mobility at the top has also been very stable and has not mitigated the dramatic increase in annual earnings concentration since the 1970s. However, the stability in long-term earnings mobility among all workers masks substantial heterogeneity across demographic groups. The decrease in the gender earnings gap and the substantial increase in upward mobility over a career for women is the driving force behind the relative stability of overall mobility measures which mask declines in mobility among men. In contrast, overall inequality and mobility patterns are not significantly influenced by the changing size and structure of immigration nor by changes in the black/white earnings gaps.
    JEL: D3 J3
    Date: 2007–08
  11. By: Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat
    Abstract: At the metropolitan level there is a striking negative correlation between residential racial segregation and population characteristics -- particularly for black residents -- but it is widely recognized that this correlation may not be causal. This paper provides a novel test of the causal relationship between segregation and population outcomes by exploiting the arrangements of railroad tracks in the 19th century to isolate plausibly exogenous variation in cities' susceptibility to segregation. I show that, conditional on miles of railroad track laid, the extent to which track configurations physically subdivided cities strongly predicts the level of segregation that ensued after the Great Migration of African-Americans to northern and western cities in the 20th century. At the start of the Great Migration, though, track configurations were uncorrelated with racial concentration, ethnic dispersion, income, industry, education, and population, indicating that reverse causality is unlikely. Instrumental variables estimates demonstrate that segregation leads to lower incomes and lower education among blacks. For whites, there is a mix of positive and negative effects: segregation decreases the probability of being a college graduate or a high earner, but also decreases the probability of being poor or unemployed. Segregation could generate these effects either by affecting human capital acquisition of residents of different races and socio-economic groups ('production') or by inducing sorting by race and SES into different cities ('selection'). This paper provides evidence that is most consistent with a combination of both production and selection.
    JEL: I0 J15 J61
    Date: 2007–08
  12. By: Juan Carlos de Pablo
    Abstract: Cualquier ocasión constituye un excelente pretexto para volver a analizar una vez más qué ocurrió en la economía argentina durante los 50 últimos años2. Pero desde una perspectiva específica. No se trata de una descripción cronológica (que el lector puede consultar en de Pablo, 2005), sino desde una que mira el período tratando de descubrir la importancia relativa que en el diseño e implementación de las políticas económicas, tuvieron las circunstancias versus los protagonistas por una parte, y la importancia relativa que tuvieron los presidentes de la Nación y sus respectivos ministros de economía, o función equivalente más allá de la denominación, por la otra. El trabajo está dividido en 5 secciones. En la primera, de manera sucinta, se reseña la bibliografía relevante; en la segunda se presentan algunos indicadores políticos y económicos básicos; en la tercera se analiza la cuestión referida a “persona versus circunstancia”; en la cuarta la cuestión “presidente versus ministro de economía”; y en la quinta sección aparecen las conclusiones.
    Date: 2007–08
  13. By: Stan du Plessis (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Ben Smit (Bureau of Economic Research, Stellenbosch University); Federico Sturzenegger (Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University)
    Abstract: This paper uses a structural VAR methodology to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks to real output for the South African economy. Demand shocks, in turn, are separated into fiscal and monetary shocks. The model is estimated with quarterly data over two overlapping samples: 1960Q2-2006Q4 and 1983Q4-2006Q4. The identified (structural) shocks were used in a historical decomposition to split output into a measure of potential output (resulting from the evolution of supply shocks) and a measure of the business cycle (the gap between actual and potential output). This measure of potential output suggests a significant decline relative to trend in the years prior to the political transition of 1994 and a swift reversal thereafter. The paper presents evidence from three sources to support its identification of aggregate supply and demand shocks. These sources are the following: theory consistent impulse response functions; a close match between the implied measure of the business cycle and independent information about the South African business cycle; and a demonstration of the close match between the identified series of aggregate supply shocks and important historical events in the decades prior to and following 1994 that have been identified by economic historians as important shocks to the South African economy.
    Keywords: South Africa, aggregate supply, aggregate demand, monetary policy, fiscal policy, potential output, long-run restrictions
    JEL: C25 C41 E32
    Date: 2007
  14. By: Shinji Tsubohara (Groningen University)
    Abstract: Abstract It is essential for democracy that political parties should act within their promulgated policy frameworks, which are formally represented in election programmes. If political parties deviate from this principle, the election would lose its meaning, jeopardising democracy. In this respect, planning in Groningen in the 1970s, which realised progressive plans like the traffic circulation plan, was democratic, although it was criticised for lacking public participation. However, planning in the 1980s casts serious doubt on its democratic nature. Various large-scale projects were promoted, and they caused harsh criticism even within the government party, Labour Party. This paper focuses on four projects, that is, the PTT (office development), Brink (residential towers), Casino and Museum, all of which were planned in or next to the inner city of Groningen in the 1980s. This paper will examine these projects in terms of the policy frameworks of the Labour Party, which were created in the 1970s. These projects brought about drastic change of historical landscape, and were clearly contrary to the party frameworks or those measures that were introduced to guarantee the frameworks, such as the local land use plan. As a result, they gave rise to not only strong opposition among citizens, but also criticism of party members who still cherished those party frameworks.
    Date: 2006
  15. By: Shinji Tsubohara (Groningen University)
    Abstract: Abstract While the focus of traffic planning in Groningen was in the 1970s how to keep out the through traffic from the inner city, that in the 1980s was how to keep out the through traffic from residential neighbourhoods around the inner city and how to connect the inner city to surrounding areas, including the region. However, the municipality had to, first of all, wind up the dispute around the Traffic Circulation Plan (Verkeerscirculatieplan, VCP), which dragged on even in the 1980s, with investigating its effect and, if necessary, modifying the plan. This paper focuses on this process of modifying the VCP, which had proceeded through demands for its deregulation from the business community and been completed in 1982. After evaluating the effect of the VCP based on various investigations, it will analyse how the VCP had been modified, particularly in terms of its principle, which simultaneously constituted a part of the party frameworks of the Labour Party. The VCP had clearly positive effects on traffic and environment in the inner city, while the effect on economy turned out to be, at least, not so bad as insisted by the business community. Relying on these facts, political leaders of the Labour Party kept the modification to a minimum, maintaining their party frameworks, and, as a result, could integrate public sentiments in the modification, although the opportunities for public participation were limited.
    Date: 2007
  16. By: Daniel Mejía; Carlos Esteban Posada
    Abstract: The main purpose of this chapter is to summarize the information currently available on cocaine production and trafficking. The chapter starts by describing the available data on cocaine production and trade, the collection methodologies, (if available) used by different sources, the main biases in the data, and the accuracy of different data sources. Next, the chapter states some of the key empirical questions and hypotheses regarding cocaine production and trade and takes a first look at how well the data matches these hypotheses. Also, the chapter states some of the main puzzles in the cocaine market and studies some of the possible explanations. These puzzles and empirical questions should guide future research into our understanding of the key determinants of illicit drug production and trafficking. Finally, the chapter studies the different policies that producer countries have adopted to fight against cocaine production and the role consumer countries play in the implementation of anti-drug policies.
    Keywords: Cocaine; Narcotraffic; War on Drugs. Classification JEL: K42; C81; H56.
  17. By: Irene Brambilla; Amit Khandelwal; Peter Schott
    Abstract: This paper analyzes China's experience under U.S. apparel and textile quotas. It makes use of a unique new database that tracks U.S. trading partners' performance under the quota regimes established by the global Multifiber Arrangement (1974 to 1995) and subsequent Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (1995 to 2005). We find that China was relatively more constrained under these regimes than other countries and that, as quotas were lifted, China's exports grew disproportionately.
    JEL: F1 F13 F15
    Date: 2007–08
  18. By: Carlos Esteban Posada; Eliana Carolina Rubiano
    Abstract: En este ensayo presentamos un modelo de crecimiento económico y los resultados de su estimación econométrica. Entre sus variables incluimos las demográficas y de capital físico y humano. El ejercicio empírico se basó en un "panel dinámico"que cubrió un período de aproximadamente cuatro decenios (1960-2000) y tres muestras de países con el fin de apreciar la robustez de los resultados. La primera, con 59 países, y, las otras dos, diferenciando entre países pobres y ricos. Los resultados de la muestra total parecen dominados por los de la sub-muestra de países pobres, a saber: solo la tasa de inversión en capital físico fue significativa en la determinación de la tasa de crecimiento económico. En el caso de los países ricos, además de la inversión en capital físico, también se mostraron significativas la inversión en capital humano (con un efecto rezagado de 10 años) y la constante, sugiriendo, esto último, que fue importante en estos países un cambio técnico exógeno como uno de sus motores de crecimiento.
    Keywords: crecimiento económico, acumulaciones de capital físico y humano, fertilidad, mortalidad infantil, panel dinámico. Classification JEL: O40; J24; J13.
  19. By: David Colander; Hugo Nopo Key Words: Latin American economics, global economics, political economy, graduate training, Latin America, applied economics
    Abstract: This paper provides some background for considering the future of these two traditions by looking at global Latin American graduate economic programs. It reports the findings of a survey of Latin American global economics programs and discusses the debate between global economics and traditional economics, arguing that there is a role for both, with global economics concentrating on the science of economics, and traditional economics concentrating on the applied policy "political economy" branch of economics--which is much broader than the applied policy training that graduate students get in global economics.
    Date: 2007–05
  20. By: Silva Olarte, Renán José
    Date: 2007–06–12

This nep-his issue is ©2007 by Bernardo Batiz-Lazo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.