|
on Business, Economic and Financial History |
|
Issue of 2007‒04‒21
thirty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Joan R. Roses; Kevin H. O'Rourke; Jeffrey G. Williamson |
| Abstract: | The endogenous growth literature has explored the transition from a Malthusian world where real wages, living standards and labor productivity are all linked to factor endowments, to one where (endogenous) productivity change embedded in modern industrial growth breaks that link. Recently, economic historians have presented evidence from England showing that the dramatic reversal in distributional trends – from a steep secular fall in wage-land rent ratios before 1800 to a steep secular rise thereafter – must be explained both by industrial revolutionary growth forces and by global forces that opened up the English economy to international trade. This paper explores whether and how the relationship was different for Spain, a country which had relatively poor productivity growth in agriculture and low living standards prior to 1800, was a late-comer to industrialization afterwards, and adopted very restrictive policies towards imports for much of the 19th century. The failure of Spanish wagerental ratios to undergo a sustained rise after 1840 can be attributed to the delayed fall in relative agricultural prices (due to those protective policies) and to the decline in Spanish manufacturing productivity after 1898. |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:wp07-08&r=his |
| By: | James L. Butkiewicz (Department of Economics,University of Delaware) |
| Abstract: | While federal financial intermediation in widely accepted, federal provision of finance was not one of the original powers of the federal government. Federal financial intermediation began during WW I through the War Finance Corporation (WFC). When the Wilson administration wanted to end the program after the war, one man, Republican Eugene Meyer fought to extend the life and expand role of the WFC. During the Great Contraction, Meyer, now Governor of the Federal Reserve Board, worked to temporarily revive the War Finance Corporation in the form of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC). However inadvertent to Meyer’s intentions, the RFC and related programs and agencies became the vehicles for a vastly expanded role for direct federal government finance during the New Deal years and to the present. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:06-09&r=his |
| By: | Farley Grubb (Department of Economics,University of Delaware) |
| Abstract: | The War for Independence (1775-1783) left the federal government deeply in debt. The spoils from winning that war also gave it an empire of land. So, post-1783 was the federal government solvent, or at what point did it become solvent? Did winning the war, in effect, pay for the war? While these questions have not been addressed before, knowing the answer is important for understanding why a particular method was chosen for funding the national debt, how the new Constitution adopted by Congress in 1789 affected public finance, and how this new untried government - that was deeply in debt and had been in default on this debt for half a decade after independence - could garner an excellent credit rating by the early 1790s. Evidence is gathered on the government's liabilities and assets to estimate its net worth and so answer these questions. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Economic History |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:07-02.&r=his |
| By: | Kevin H. O'Rourke; Ahmed S. Rahman; Alan M. Taylor |
| Abstract: | Technological change was unskilled-labor-biased during the early Industrial Revolution of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, but is skill-biased today. This fact is not embedded in extant unified growth models. We develop a model of the transition to sustained economic growth which can endogenously account for both these facts, by allowing the factor bias of technological innovations to reflect the profitmaximising decisions of innovators. Endowments dictated that the initial stages of the Industrial Revolution be unskilled-labor biased. The transition to skill-biased technological change was due to a growth in “Baconian knowledge” and international trade. Simulations show that the model does a good job of tracking reality, at least until the mass education reforms of the late nineteenth century. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous growth, Demography, Trade |
| Date: | 2007–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp219&r=his |
| By: | Flandreau, Marc |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the evolution of monetary policy targets over the course of the past 200 years. We argue that policy targets are set as part of an assignment procedure that is intended to address both time consistency and monitoring problems. As a result, central banks, after having been assigned to target the exchange rate in the 19th century, are now entrusted with targeting the rate of inflation. Critical advances in the measurement of inflation have proved decisive in bringing about this radical transformation. |
| Keywords: | central banks; exchange rates; inflation; monetary policy targets |
| JEL: | E1 E3 E5 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6252&r=his |
| By: | Richard Agnello (Department of Economics,University of Delaware); Xiaowen Xu (Department of Economics,University of Dela) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we compare prices of oil paintings sold at auction from 1972 to 2004 for African American artists and their white contemporaries. It is widely documented by the art community that African American art has been under appreciated in America going back to the time of slavery. Along with the great strides made in the twentieth century towards racial equality in the U.S., African American art has become recognized in the national and international art scene with much focus from galleries, programs and exhibitions. Our interest is to investigate the extent that economic and financial markets have incorporated mainstream acceptance of African American art. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:06-06&r=his |
| By: | Julio Martinez Galarraga; Elisenda Paluzie Hernandez; Jordi Pons Novell; Daniel Aurelio Tirado Fabregat (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration economies, regional disparities, spanish economic history |
| JEL: | N12 O4 R1 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bar:bedcje:2007175&r=his |
| By: | Cinzia Lorandini |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes entrepreneurial behavior in the Ancient Regime and examines a particularly long-lived family business, the “Valentino e Isidoro Salvadori” firm, which operated in Trento for more than two centuries. The firm survived several generational transitions, it was engaged in many activities and partnerships, and it entered into an extensive network of Italian and Central-European operators. The Salvadori started as local shopkeepers and became merchant-entrepreneurs of international renown, involved at the same time in manufacturing, commercial, and financial activities, thus providing extensive material for a case study. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the strategies and the factors influencing the Salvadori’s entrepreneurial behavior in the seventeenth- and eighteenth centuries, taking into account the broader socio-economic, institutional, and cultural framework. After a long-period overview of the strategies adopted by the family, who started managing a diversified business and ended up specializing in the silk sector, a detailed analysis is devoted to the role of the family, the partnerships, and the network, paying particular attention to their impact on transaction costs, as well as on agency costs. |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpde:0707&r=his |
| By: | Cinzia Lorandini |
| Abstract: | For a long period, silk was one of the most important goods to be exchanged between the Italian regions and the territories located beyond the Alps. Indeed, it was responsible for a large amount of both commercial flows and financial transactions. The area corresponding to present-day Trentino also experienced a significant development in silk manufacture and trade in the sixteenth- and seventeenth centuries. The leading actors were the so-called merchant-entrepreneurs or Verleger, who coordinated the production process, distributed silk yarns to the German-speaking countries, and regularly attended the Bolzano fairs, where they engaged in financial activities. The paper shows the preliminary results of a prosopographic study of the Verleger of Rovereto, Ala, and Trento, and presents first-hand information obtained from a series of archival sources, which are still unexplored. Some attempts are made to trace the patterns of entrepreneurial development through a reconstruction of business changeovers. A composite outline is drawn, where foreign intervention joins local entrepreneurial initiatives and municipal efforts to promote the growth of the silk sector. |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpde:0708&r=his |
| By: | Sebastian Galiani (Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata; Washington University in St. Louis); Daniel Heymann (CEPAL); Carlos Dabus (Universidad del Sur); Fernando Tohme (CONICET) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the emergence of large-scale education systems in a framework where growth is associated with changes in the conguration of the economy. We model the incentives that the economic elite could have (collectively) to accept taxation destined to nance the education of credit-constrained workers. Contrary to previous work, in our model this incentive does not necessarily arise from a complementarity between physical and human capital in manufacturing. Instead, we emphasize the demand for human-capital-intensive services by highincome groups. Our model seems capable to account for salient features of the development of Latin America in the 19th century, where, in particular, land-rich countries such as Argentina established an extensive public education system and developed a sophisticated service sector before starting signicant manufacturing activities. |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0049&r=his |
| By: | Soledad Arellano |
| Abstract: | Chile’s regulatory framework introduced in 1981 remained unchanged for more than 20 years. The reform had a positive effect but several warning signals appeared by the end of the 90s indicating the need to introduce changes. The most important problems were the lack of competition in the generation segment and the reluctance to expand capacity. These problems were appropriately faced by two amendments to the law (2004 -2005). Knowing the experience of Chile is relevant because the lessons learnt can be applied to other countries which have adopted the same model. In addition it illustrates that the power industry can work reasonably well under a “regulated” competition framework, different from the de-regulation model currently being discussed in other countries. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edj:ceauch:226&r=his |
| By: | YOKOYAMA, Kazuki |
| Abstract: | This paper measures that the Bank of Japan adopted the too-big-to-fail doctrine against the panic of 1927. The results at this paper imply that supported banks had higher closure risk or occupied key positions in the local loan-markets. And this paper finds that the Bank of Japan bailed out solvent banks if they had political importance. |
| Keywords: | lender of last resort (LLR); too big to fail; the panic of 1927; bank closure. |
| JEL: | G28 G21 N25 |
| Date: | 2007–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2768&r=his |
| By: | Rose, Andrew K |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the characteristics of departures from monetary unions. During the post-war period, almost seventy distinct countries or territories have left a currency union, while over sixty have remained continuously in currency unions. I compare countries leaving currency unions to those remaining within them, and find that leavers tend to be larger, richer, and more democratic; they also tend to have higher inflation. However, there are typically no sharp macroeconomic movements before, during, or after exits. |
| Keywords: | country; data; empirical; monetary; panel; probit; statistic |
| JEL: | E42 E58 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6254&r=his |
| By: | Roland G. Fryer; Michael Greenstone |
| Abstract: | Until the 1960s, Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) were practically the only institutions of higher learning open to Blacks in the US. Using nationally representative data files from 1970s and 1990s college attendees, we find that in the 1970s HBCU matriculation was associated with higher wages and an increased probability of graduation, relative to attending a Traditionally White Institution (TWI). By the 1990s, however, there is a wage penalty, resulting in a 20% decline in the relative wages of HBCU graduates between the two decades. We also analyze the College and Beyond's 1976 and 1989 samples of matriculates which allows us to focus on two of the most elite HBCUs. Between the 1970s and 1990s, HBCU students report statistically significant declines in the proportion that would choose the same college again, preparation for getting along with other racial groups, and development of leadership skills, relative to black students in TWIs. On the positive side, HBCU attendees became relatively more likely to be engaged in social, political, and philanthropic activities. The data provide modest support for the possibility that HBCUs' relative decline in wages is partially due to improvements in TWIs' effectiveness at educating blacks. The data contradict a number of other intuitive explanations, including relative decline in pre-college credentials (e.g., SAT scores) of students attending HBCUs and expenditures per student at HBCUs. |
| JEL: | I23 J15 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13036&r=his |
| By: | Jörg Baten; Jan Luiten van Zanden |
| Abstract: | Endogenous growth theory suggests that human capital formation plays a significant role for the ‘wealth and poverty of nations.’ In contrast to previous studies which denied the role of human capital as a crucial determinant of for really long-term growth, we confirm its importance. Indicators of human capital like literacy rates are lacking for the period of 1450-1913; hence, we use per capita book production as a proxy for advanced literacy skills. This study explains how, and to what extent, growth disparities are a function of human capital formation. |
| Keywords: | Book Produktion, Economic Growth, Human Capital |
| JEL: | O14 O40 N10 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1030&r=his |
| By: | C. Theodore Koebel; Marilyn Cavell |
| Abstract: | Since the post-World War II days of Levitt and Sons, production builders have dramatically shaped the way we build and what we build in America. Increasingly producing the majority of the new housing stock in the United States, production builders have developed scale economies to leverage with their material suppliers, to build efficiently and cost-effectively, and to implement major technological changes through the industry. With these resources, some production builders have not implemented drastic changes in their processes, while others have pushed the envelope in industrializing their construction sites. This context has led PATH to ask important questions: Do production builders have a whole staff that looks out for new techniques and materials? How do they implement change throughout their organization? What are their relationships with consumers, and do they communicate technological information to them? |
| JEL: | O31 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hud:wpaper:39075&r=his |
| By: | John W. Dawson |
| Abstract: | The initial publication of the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom of the World index prompted an explosion of empirical research on the institutions-growth relationship. To date, little of this research has appeared in the top economics journals. Subsequently, a number of empirical growth studies using alternative sources of data on institutions have appeared in top journals. This paper explores the two tracks of empirical research on the institutions-growth relationship—one track that recognizes all the relevant literature, and one that seems wanting in that respect. |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:07-04&r=his |
| By: | Pierre Dockès (Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - [CNRS : UMR5206][IEP LYON] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]); Jean-Pierre Potier (Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - [CNRS : UMR5206][IEP LYON] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]) |
| Abstract: | On a trop tendance encore aujourd'hui à assimiler la « libre concurrence » chez Léon Walras et la « concurrence pure et parfaite » comme structure de marché de la vulgate néo-classique. Nous chercherons à montrer dans cette étude que chez Walras, la libre concurrence, quel que soit le niveau auquel on l'appréhende (certains marchés concrets, marché type réel, marché type idéal), est essentiellement un comportement spécifique et naturel d'individus rationnels et libres, et disposant d'institutions leur permettant d'exercer pleinement ces libertés. Elle découle de trois libertés : celle de proposer les prix à l'enchère et au rabais, celle de faire varier sa production selon les situations de bénéfice ou de perte, celle d'entrer ou de sortir du marché. Trois libertés, qui produisent un comportement naturel, mais qui doivent pouvoir s'exercer pleinement, d'où l'existence de deux règles suivantes : <br /> - les échangistes doivent rendre publiques leurs propositions en les criant, <br /> - les processus d'enchères et rabais doivent être terminés et le prix d'équilibre atteint, avant qu'il y ait des transactions effectives. <br /><br />Notre étude comprendra deux sections.<br /> <br />La première section, La concurrence et la méthode walrasienne, met en relation la méthode de l'auteur des Eléments et les divers niveaux auxquels il appréhende la concurrence et les marchés concurrentiels. La deuxième section, Marché, concurrence et libre concurrence absolue, examine comment Walras prend en compte les marchés concrets, construit son marché type réel et passe ensuite au marché type idéal. On peut ainsi caractériser la concurrence walrasienne par opposition aux conceptions standard. |
| Keywords: | représentations du marché ; Léon Walras ; libre-concurrence ; marchés concurrentiels ; marché type idéal |
| Date: | 2007–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00138352_v1&r=his |
| By: | Jeffrey Miller (Department of Economics,University of Delaware) |
| Keywords: | Bulgaria, mass privatization, dilution |
| JEL: | P5 P3 G3 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:06-10&r=his |
| By: | Farley Grubb (Department of Economics,University of Delaware) |
| Abstract: | Paper money has often been controversial and misunderstood. Why it has value, why that value changes over time, how it influences economic activity, who should be allowed to make it, how its use and creation should be controlled, and whether it should exist at all—are questions that have perplexed the public, vexed politicians, and puzzled economic experts. Knowing how, when, and why paper money first became commonplace in America and the nature of the institutions propagating it, can help us better comprehend paper money’s role in society. Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790) dealt often with this topic and his writings can teach us much about it. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Economic History |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:07-01.&r=his |
| By: | Reynal-Querol, Marta; Loayza, Norman V.; Chen, Siyan |
| Abstract: | Using an " event-study " methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Peace & Peacekeeping,Post Conflict Reintegration,Services & Transfers to Poor,Social Conflict and Violence |
| Date: | 2007–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4190&r=his |
| By: | Stergios Skaperdas (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine) |
| Abstract: | Civil wars and conflict can be understood from an economic point of view only if there is incomplete contracting. I examine such settings and first discuss sources of incomplete contracting, from geography and ethnic and social distance to external interventions due to geopolitics or the presence of rents. Yet, since war is destructive, the contending parties might normally be expected to settle in the shadow of war. One reason that sometimes they do not, contrary to conventional wisdom, is because the shadow of the future is too long. Subsequently, using a formal model for guidance I examine some consequences of civil wars and emphasize the role hierarchical organization and rents play in determining the severity of conflict. |
| Keywords: | Warlords; Incomplete contracting; Conflict; Appropriation; Anarchy; Shadow of the future |
| JEL: | D74 F5 H56 O40 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irv:wpaper:060715&r=his |
| By: | Burton A. Abrams (Department of Economics,University of Delaware) |
| Abstract: | Evidence from the Nixon tapes, now available to researchers, shows that President Richard Nixon pressured the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Arthur Burns, to engage in expansionary monetary policies in the run up to the 1972 election. This paper quotes the relevant conversations from the Nixon tapes. Questions remain as to whether Burns followed an expansionary policy in an already-inflationary environment out of conviction or because of political pressure. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:06-04&r=his |
| By: | Polo Garrido, Fernando |
| Abstract: | Cooperatives meet differentiated purposes since their origins. In the same way as other economic units, they need to make use of accounting. So the study of cooperative accounting arouse interest from distant time, as it is shown by the fact that in Spain a monograph book about cooperative accounting came out in 1925. The present work studies the cooperative accounting in Spain from the beginnings until nowadays. Currently we are living a process of accounting reform, for this reason we analyse the different impacts that can be the result of the application of International Financial Reporting Standards to cooperatives. Finally we study the response’s movements arisen as result of IFRIC 2 beyond our frontiers. |
| Keywords: | Accounting standardization; International Financial Reporting Standards; cooperatives; impact of Financial Reporting Standards; accounting reform |
| JEL: | P13 M41 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2671&r=his |
| By: | David B. Audretsch (Max Planck Institute of Economics Jena, Research group on Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth and Public Policy); Mark Sanders (Max Planck Institute of Economics Jena, Research group on Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth and Public Policy) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that globalization has led to a shift in developed countries from an industrial to an entrepreneurial model of production. Globalization is interpreted as a level shock in the supply of unskilled labor to the world economy, a decrease in the level of political risk associated with outward foreign direct investment (offshoring), and the widespread diffusion of a general purpose technology such as ICT. The impact of these exogenous shocks is then analyzed in a variety expansion model that distinguishes among three types of varieties. Following the life cycle we distinguish among new, mature and offshore production. The above shocks all result in a shift in comparative advantage in developed countries towards new varieties which correspond to the early stage of the product life cycle. Moreover, because entrepreneurs serve as agents that move varieties between life cycle stages, their importance increases due to globalization. The many new opportunities for profit benefit entrepreneurs and skilled labor. By contrast, factors of production employed in the mature stages of the life cycle become less important. Thus, the model explains the emergence of what we label an entrepreneurial economy. |
| JEL: | F01 J31 O1 P0 |
| Date: | 2007–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-003&r=his |
| By: | Divar Garteiz-Aurrecoa, Javier; Gadea Soler, Enrique |
| Abstract: | The Basque Legislation of cooperative societies sends to the free decision of every society in order that the bylaws could foresee the existence of contributions to share capital not eligible, but refundable for decision of the cooperative society, allowing to assess, this way, the contributions of the associates as own resource. With the modification of the Law one has tried to adapt only the text to the NIC 32 and not to introduce the longed measurements to facilitate the funding of the cooperative companies with own funds. |
| Keywords: | Procedure of accounting and funding of the cooperative societies. |
| JEL: | P13 M41 J54 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2668&r=his |
| By: | Pierre Dockès (Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - [CNRS : UMR5206][IEP LYON] - [Université Lumière - Lyon II] - [Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines]) |
| Abstract: | Selon Léon Walras, il est possible de définir la société idéale et, dans l'avenir, celle-ci se réalisera nécessairement. Cependant, un problème majeur se pose. L'Idéal social doit être conforme à la vérité pure, vérité économique pure et vérité morale pure, et il doit être à la fois un Idéal de justice et un Idéal d'intérêt. Quelle relation entre ces Idéaux ? Y-a-t-il harmonie ou antinomie ? S'ils ne sont pas un, s'ils sont pluriels, comment se concilient-ils ? L'Idéal social apparaît comme le résultat d'une synthèse, et même de synthèses... |
| Keywords: | Léon Walras ; idéal social ; idéal politique ; idéal scientifique ; économie politique ; science sociale |
| Date: | 2007–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00138312_v1&r=his |
| By: | Andreas Freytag (University of Jena, School of Busniess and Economics); Friedrich Schneider (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz) |
| Abstract: | Central bank independence (CBI) is a very important precondition for price stability. However, the empirical evidence for a correlation between both is relatively weak. In this paper, this weakness is countered with a) an extended measure of monetary commitment, which includes well-known criteria for CBI and external criteria such as convertibility and exchange rate regimes and b) the argument that monetary commitment can grant price stability best if it is backed by an adequate assignment of economic policy. An empirical assessment with data from four decades confirms the crucial role of monetary commitment for price stability. |
| Keywords: | central bank independence, price stability, monetary commitment |
| JEL: | E50 |
| Date: | 2007–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-002&r=his |
| By: | Kitov, Ivan |
| Abstract: | The evolution of Gini coefficient for personal incomes in the USA between 1947 and 2005 is analyzed and modeled. There are several versions of personal income distribution (PID) provided by the US Census Bureau (US CB) for this period with various levels of resolution. Effectively, these PIDs result in different Gini coefficients due to the differences between discrete and continuous representations. When all persons of 15 years of age and over are included in the PIDs, Gini coefficient drops from 0.64 in 1947 to 0.54 in 1990. This effect is observed due to a significant decrease in the portion of people without income. For the PIDs not including persons without income, Gini coefficient is varying around 0.51 between 1960 and 2005 with standard deviation of 0.004, i.e. is in fact constant. This Gini coefficient is practically independent on the portion of population included in the PIDs according to any revision of income definitions. The driving force of the model describing the evolution of individual incomes (microeconomic level) and their aggregate value (macroeconomic level) is the change in nominal GDP per capita. The model accurately predicts the evolution of Gini coefficient for the PIDs for people with income. The model gives practically unchanged (normalized) PIDs and Gini coefficient between 1947 and 2005. The empirical Gini curves converge to the predicted one when the number of people without income decreases. Asymptotically, the empirical curves should collapse to the theoretical one when all the working age population obtains an appropriate definition of income. Therefore the model Gini coefficient potentially better describes true behavior of inequality in the USA because the definitions of income used by the US Census Bureau apparently fail to describe true income distribution. |
| Keywords: | Gini index; personal income distribution; Pareto distribution; microeconomic modeling; USA; real GDP; macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E17 D31 E64 J1 O12 D01 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2798&r=his |
| By: | Takahashi, Kazushi; Otsuka, Keijiro |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to identify a pathway out of poverty over generations in the rural Philippines, based on long-term panel data spanning for nearly a quarter of a century. Specifically, it sequentially examines the determinants of schooling, subsequent occupational choices, and current non-farm earnings for the same individuals. We found that an initial rise in parental income, brought about by the land reform and the Green Revolution, among other things, improves the schooling of children, which later allows them to obtain remunerative non-farm jobs. These results suggest that the increased agricultural income, improved human capital through schooling and the development of non-farm sectors are the keys to reducing poverty in the long run. It must be also pointed out that the recent development of the rural non-farm sector offers ample employment opportunities for the less educated, which also significantly contributed to the poverty reduction. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational poverty dynamics, Child schooling, Occupational choice, Non-farm earnings, Philippines, Poverty, Rural societies, Human resources |
| JEL: | I32 J24 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper96&r=his |
| By: | Muhammad Arshad Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Abdul Qayyum (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade and financial liberalisation on economic growth in Pakistan using annual observations over the period 1961-2005. The analysis is based on the bound testing approach of cointegration advanced by Pesaran, et al. (2001). The empirical findings suggest that both trade and financial policies play an important role in enhancing economic growth in Pakistan in the long-run. However, the short-run responses of the real deposit rate and trade policy variables are very low, suggesting further acceleration of the reform process. The feedback coefficient suggests a very slow rate of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. The estimated equation remains stable over the period of study as indicated by CUSUM and CUSUMQ stability tests. |
| Keywords: | Trade Liberalisation, Financial Development, Economic Growth, Bound Test |
| JEL: | F43 G10 O10 C22 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:19&r=his |
| By: | Reynal-Querol, Marta; Montalvo, Jose G. |
| Abstract: | The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies. |
| Keywords: | Social Conflict and Violence,Population Policies,Peace & Peacekeeping,Post Conflict Reintegration,Services & Transfers to Poor |
| Date: | 2007–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4192&r=his |